The 2021 IIHF Under-18 World Championship Preview

Before we get started, I hope you and your respective families and friends are well. Life is tough for far too many in far too many ways these days. Better days are ahead, but until then, we're all in this together and I hope you're all safe and well.

If you'd like to skip this entire writeup and just look at the data sheet I put together, check it out at this link!

We're here! The IIHF U18 tournament, one of the most underrated that they put on, has finally returned after the 2020 tournament was unfortunately canceled. This year's tournament is an interesting mix of players flying under the radar and high profile names that haven't had much public visibility and I hope you're all as excited as I am to see what happens. There are many strong rosters, and almost across the board, goaltending may be a bit of a weak point for multiple teams, so I'm looking forward to a bit of firewagon hockey, especially considering the volume of players who have extremely small sample sizes.

Before breaking down the teams specifically, I'd also like to note that while the data available paints what I'd consider a relatively solid gauge of the talent on display on a team-by-team basis, a number of teams have players with an extremely limited to nonexistent sample. Teams like Sweden also have a number of players with extremely limited minutes in professional league just to keep them playing through the junior league shutdown, for example. In this piece, the order of the team's is a rough idea of where I think they could finish this season.

NHLeS represents an age, position and league adjusted evaluation of the value of their production, with 20+ being typical first round pick-level production. Inv% is simply the player's points per game divided by team goals per game to get a rough idea of how vital the player's output is relative to their team.

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10. Germany - 7.14 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Bennett Rossmy (F)

• As much as I love the recent batch of Germans in the NHL draft, the level of talent concentrated between names like Stutzle, Peterka and Reichel doesn't seem to be sustainable. Basically across the board, I can't pick out gamebreaking talents that might be able to keep this team from being under threat of relegation.
• I'm curious about 2022 eligible Julian Lutz, playing in a men's pro league with Peterka's youth program in Salzburg, where Peterka was a junior level player at the same age. I can't say I've seen a ton of Lutz, but the track record is positive.
• Bennet Roßmy is a big, lanky shooter who I've really enjoyed watching in spurts this year in the German 2nd division. There's pace, and scoring ability to him and I imagine he'll be a focal point for this team to stay alive.
  
• Sebastian Cimmerman is another prototypical quick skilled winger that I've liked in brief Red Bull games I've caught. He's got a good ability to open up the offensive zone with east-west skill and mobility, so I'll keep an eye out for what he can pull off.
• It could be a tough year for the German team, and they will need to rely on Nikita Quapp, Red Bull's AlpsHL goaltender who has had good results if they want to work their way up the table in my view. They have the benefit of many players coming from the same program in Salzburg, but a team headlined by premier talent like Stutzle, Reichel and Peterka, this is unlikely to be.

9. Latvia - 4.59 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Gustavs Ozolins (D)

• I'll admit that I have a personal soft spot for Latvia, and that may just be what's putting them ahead of Germany here. I always like to check in on what's going on over there, and there are sometimes some bright spots to catch on both their MHL team HK Riga, and the premier youth program in the Latvian pro league HS Riga.
• It's likely they'll battle it out with Germany to stay in the tournament, but many players here come from the same program and have played together against professional competition all year back home, which to me, is an advantage. Their goaltenders face a ton of pucks, they lose a lot, but in my view, that's plenty of time to learn from experience.
• Gustavs Ozolins is a guy who I've really enjoyed watching this year, and he showed plenty of improvement in his skill, confidence, and offensive output, landing on my watchlist as of late April.
• Martins Lavins and Bogdans Hodass are players I've picked up on here and there as well and could be interesting pieces, and while I can't say much about Darels Dukurs, his production is promising in the Swiss junior league, and all this team needs to do is win a game here and there and they may be able to return next year.

8. Belarus - 4.87 AvgNHLeS
​Eyes On: Dmitri Kuzmin (D)

• Belarus is one of the more underrated countries with regards to their youth development and quality of that youth. Names like Maxim Sushko, Yegor Sharangovich, Vladislav Kolyachonok, and Yevgeni Oksentyuk have all been exciting talents coming through the NHL Draft recently with some already making waves in the NHL.
• Alexander Suvorov is a notable player that would've been a standout in 2020, but is still eligible for this year's draft, and I've seen very interesting things out of him in the Belrussian pro league. Just noting him because he's probably a player that would've been a major part of this team, as he's been chipping in with the Belarussian men's team here and there during this season.
• Danila Klimovich played largely at the 3rd division level this year, but I've seen him here and there when watching Kuzmin. He's a skilled winger with a quick release that can keep opponents guessing and step into dangerous areas of the ice, recently finding his way onto my watchlist. 
• On the note of the Belarussian pro league, the only full time player from that league is the name I'll have my eyes on: Dmitri Kuzmin. This kid is a ton of fun.  He's skilled, creative, surprisingly effective on defensive rushes, and while inconsistent in the offensive direction, dropping him back down to junior competition could be a ton of fun. I saw him score a lacrosse goal this year... as a defenseman. He's on my shortlist as a late round swing, but ranked much, much higher on my board.
• I can't say I've seen a tremendous amount of the U18 and U17 teams that play in the Belarussian 2nd and 3rd division pro leagues, but I still believe these teams that play together all year have an advantage, and also have an advantage by playing against veteran professional competition. The talent level may not be enormous, but if Ivan Zhigalov steals a few goals here and there, and Kuzmin's offensive creativity drives a bit of offense, this team could surprise a few of us.
• They're also (just barely) the youngest team in the tournament, so that's neat.

7. Switzerland - 8.91 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler (D)

• Ah, the Swiss. If there's a program that seems to be losing a bit of steam in recent years internationally, I've felt that Switzerland is the closest thing to that. I think they'll have a solid tournament and avoid relegation, but it'd be pretty surprising to see this team make a ton of waves in the medal round.
• Joel Henry, Attilio Biasca, and Brian Zanetti are all names I've had looks at this year, as well as leading scorer Liekit Reichle, and the top trio of Reichle, Henry and Truog being teammates on the Zurich junior program could be solid drivers of play, but I find their games not extremely projectable to higher levels. Reichle does bring a solid finishing ability with good skill to pull pucks and change angles, and can jump on loose pucks with a quick release to catch a goaltender sleeping, but we'll see if it'll be enough.
• Dario Sidler, my player to watch, was suggested to me as a bit of a joke because he's very tiny, but checking him out briefly, I liked him enough to give him a few games of data, and yes, he's very tiny, but his work rate, all-around skating ability, and puck management at his best is a ton of fun. He's flirted with time in the NLA with Zug's men's team and while his defensive gap management and physical strength are very not good, I imagine he'll play an extremely important role driving offense for the Swiss junior team, and I'm curious to see what playing in this tournament will do for his game.
• There are some D-1 players like Noah Greuter and Lian Bichsel may make waves as well, but my expectation for this team is somewhat low with regards to medal threat.

6. Czech Republic - 7.68 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Jiri Tichacek (D)

• Like I said, samples are small, and many of these players have played limited minutes in good professional leagues in the Czech Republic, and this has deflated their NHLeS metrics significantly. This team is no slouch, and could be a surprise.
• Their backend noted by Jiricek, Svozil, Tichacek, Hamara, and Machu in the least are all legitimate to high end NHL prospects, and if Tomas Suchanek can be solid in net, this team could surprise.
• Jiri Tichacek against junior competition could be fun quarterbacking their power play with Jiricek, and my thoughts on Tichacek are well documented. He's mobile, skilled, excellent managing defensive gaps and stick checking opponents, and has offensive upside that rarely got to come out in the Chance Liga.
• In researching this piece, Simon Marha stood out to me. He's a big, rangy winger who gets himself and pucks to the net well. He landed on my watchlist after having a look, and hopefully he's a focal point of the Czech offense to support their strong defense.
• David Jiricek is a bad, bad young person and we're all going to be well aware of that after this tournament, I think.
• Martin Rysavy, Jakub Brabanec, and other names here and there will be relied upon to produce points, but I think this is a team that can squeeze out a win against teams where they're undervalued through legitimately strong defending.

5. Finland - 12.82 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Ville Koivunen (W)

• Finland is always a perplexing international team in my experience. I can't help but give them credit for their high intensity, admirably strong game that extracts plenty of output from their players.
• Samu Salminen is arguably the player that mismatches between their production and my viewings of him. He's big, got some good skill, excellent scoring instincts, but pace, skating and defensive work rate are all issues I've spotted every time I've seen him. He could have a productive tournament here, but he isn't a player I'm clamoring to add to my program. I'm happy to be proven wrong, as he's scoring all these points somehow.
• Brad Lambert should be one of the first names off the board in 2022, and Joakim Kemell is another name in the same program who has impressed me significantly. These two being key role players wouldn't surprise me in this tournament.
• Their defense is marked by a blend of mobility and puck management. Aleksi Heimosalmi, Jimi Suomi, Topias Vilen, and Viljami Juusola have all impressed me with their skating ability, with Heimosalmi's lateral mobility and skill, Suomi and Juusola's four way speed and quickness, and Topias Vilen's aggressive escape gear on the offensive side of the puck.
• Kalle Ervasti has been a guy who is up and down in my experience, but when he's on, he's an impressive modern defender with range, skill, intelligence and the ability to take care of the puck with the odd flash of offensive creativity. I'll have my eye on him on a bigger stage to say the least.
• Ville Koivunen has been a more projectable and impressive hockey player than teammate Samu Tuomaala. Tuomaala may have higher pace to his game and more speed, but he's frustrating with the puck in a variety of ways, and while I believe he'll have a good tournament here, I also believe that Koivunen could impress folks and end up with more production than we thought through his intelligence, care for the puck, and increasing offensive danger seen over the course of the season.
• Oliver Kapanen isn't his cousin Kasperi, but he's certainly a smart, effective offensive player who knows where to be and what to do whenever I've seen him play. The tracked data I have on him is solid all around, and as he could be a good role player for the Finns this year.
• My expectations for Kalle Väisänen are relatively low, but that's only because I want him to come in and surprised all of us. He's big, but skilled, intense, and I've seen him casually obliterate junior competition in Finland. He may be a bit of a roleplayer, but I'm curious to see his mobility, skill, and physical imposition on display here. There aren't a ton of players at this tournament quite like him, but I'm interested. Another player where the tracked data is quite impressive in a number of areas.

4. Sweden - 11.45 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Elias Salomonsson (D)

• The Swedes are going to be an interesting team to watch. There's a tremendous amount of firepower here with players who I believe are highly underrated going into the 2021 Draft.
• I'm expecting huge things from Fabian Lysell, Isak Rosen, Simon Robertsson, and a legitimately strong 2022 class of names like Noah Östlund, Simon Forsmark, Mattias Hävelid, and Ludwig Persson to say the least.
• The supporting class  of 2021's is also absolutely rock solid. I'm a big fan of Arvid Eljas, and if William Strömgren comes to play, this team could have multiple dangerous lines to go toe to toe with the best of them.
• The weakness is in net. No Jesper Wallstedt isn't ideal as he isn't eligible, and the names they've brought, while okay, aren't what I'd consider potential game stealers as some other teams may have.
• I know I mentioned David Jiricek as a guy who could have a coming out party for the 2022 Draft, but Elias Salomonsson is legit, scary good, and in my opinion a legitimate threat to go very early next year. A 30%+ INV% as one of the youngest 2022 eligibles in the J20 Nationell is hilarious, and he earned it through an extremely strong two-way game with excellent skill and confidence with the puck on his stick. A glitter player almost every time watching his junior team this year, I'm curious to see what he does in this tournament.

3. Russia - 8.84 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Katelevsky (F)

• I'm hoping the Russians come away a bit more impressive than they did in the World Juniors. Their 2022 and 2023 eligibles are arguably going to be headliners for this team.
• Matvei Michkov is simply a ridiculous goal scorer with tremendous skill and pace, Ivan Miroshnichenko has been incredibly impressive in similar ways when I've caught Omsk this season, and Danila Yurov spent extended periods in the KHL without looking too out of place.
• I would've liked to see Loko defenseman Kirill Kudryavtsev make an appearance, but don't sleep on guys big, defense first guys like Novikov and Makarov, specifically the latter. Makarov's skill, mobility and fluidity are notable for his age, and in the limited pro experience he's had, he's been solid.
• Vsevolod Gaidamak is one of the most perplexing players I've tracked this year. Spectacular ability to drive offensive transitions, get to the net and drive dangerous chances, but he just has no finishing ability to speak of. If he discovers some shooting skill, I'd have much more time for him on my board as he's a responsible two-way centre with good pace and skill that could be a good role player here.
• Kirill Gersimyuk is my guy in net. He's big, has been absolutely demolished with almost 40 shots a night in the MHL with a solid series of VHL appearances, and 2022 eligible Sergei Ivanov is not far behind. I imagine Valeri Brinkman, being with the SKA-1946 team rather than Variyagi, will get the net, but I'm crossing my fingers that Gerasimyuk comes in and steals the show. He's stolen his fair share of games this year to say the least.
• My player to watch could be Matvei Michkov, or Ivan Miroshnichenko, but that's too easy. Those guys are fantastic players who should be a ton of fun, but Dmitri Katelevsky is one that I want to see against junior competition to see how his game fares below the VHL level. His data I've tracked fluctuates greatly, but he's got a ton of off-puck pace, lots of energy, and covers ice very well. I'm more curious to see what he does more than anything, but I've got eyes on him.
• The Russians have an advantage in net that I don't believe Sweden or Finland have, so to me, they're a greater medal threat, especially with potentially ridiculous firepower available up front.

2. Canada - 21.46 AvgNHLeS (kinda.)
Eyes On: Logan Stankoven (F)

• I'm trying to set aside my Canadian bias here, and there is a strong chance that this team may struggle, considering five names haven't played a game this season, and Chase Stillman only played a limited sample in Denmark. They should still be a favourite on raw talent alone, but other teams have had a ton of time to get into playing mode, especially the United States.
• With Benjamin Gaudreau leading the way in net with two strong backup options, and the same can't be said for the US team, Canada may still pull off a championship through their overwhelming talent.
• I'm extremely curious to see Brett Harrison play, as his games in Finland showed raw skill and pace that I didn't see a ton of in 2019-20. Same goes for Mason McTavish, but ramped up. His improvement in Switzerland this year is undeniable, and he could easily boost his draft stock.
• Shane Wright and Connor Bedard should be great, but we all know that. Bedard's NHLeS of 56.6 through 15 WHL games is undeniably ridiculous and unparalleled.
• Brandt Clarke should pile up points. His ability to work the offensive zone is excellent, so just by virtue of being a PP1 quarterback, he'll get a chance to show off. He's no slouch defensively, but I'll be looking for a more reliable puck mover outside the OZ as that seemed to be a bit of an issue in every Slovakian pro game I tracked.
• Of the guys that haven't played, nor named Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton is probably the name I want to keep an eye on the most. I came away liking teammate Avery Hayes in my viewings of Hamilton last year, but Winterton's intelligence and puck management are areas that I hope come out.
• This team is loaded with firepower and a solid defensive foundation, and that may be enough to pull it off, but other teams with much more experience this year, and much more time playing together may be a hurdle. The talent is there though almost from top to bottom. This is a country that hasn't won this tournament since 2013, so forgive me for a lack of homerism.

1. United States (13.46 AvgNHLeS)
Eyes On: Dylan Duke (C/RW)

• This team won 6 of 10 tournaments through the 2010s, and they may be getting off on the right foot again in 2021. This is a team that relies on outscoring opponents with tremendous offensive output all season long led by both 2021 and 2022 eligibles. It appears that their best finisher Chaz Lucius will be absent from the tournament, but I don't think the team will struggle to fill his large gap. Names like Dylan Duke, Ryan St. Louis, Red Savage, and Liam Gilmartin have flown under the radar all season long, and the 22's Jack Hughes, Isaac Howard, Logan Cooley, and Rutger McGroarty are all highly impressive talents to look forward to.
• Their lone 2023 eligible Charlie Stramel is not Connor Bedard, but he's no joke. He's big, wiry, rangy, but skilled and looked excellent at the Biosteel All-American Game. This may not be a huge tournament for him, but it could be a sign of bright things to come for him.
• Sasha Pastujov is going to get pushed and tested in this year's tournament. I've felt that Dylan Duke's relentless energy, offensive no-nonsense creativity and defensive intensity makes him a more interesting NHL project than Pastujov's highly volume-heavy offense and reception-based offensive transition game, but his adaptive skill under pressure and creativity with the puck is undeniable. He has the advantage of youth, but I'm curious to see how his game changes in this tournament if at all.
• I'm legitimately sad to not be able to see what Jake Martin would be able to do in this year's draft as I do believe there's a lot of defensive ability and responsibility that he managed well, and without it, the team may be more susceptible to leaking scoring chances moreso than they already are.
• If they don't get at least competent goaltending, they may struggle to be as dominant as their offense has shown so far this season, and a poor goaltending performance in the wrong game could sink their tournament, but they have more than enough talent to score their way out of problems throughout their lineup.

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More than anything, I'm just happy to see international hockey again. The World Juniors this year were exciting, and the U18s are always equally entertaining in my experience. It's tremendously disappointing to see the Nova Scotia government pull the rug out from under the Women's World Championship, but things are... not great here in Canada, and all I can do is hope that they can reschedule, and bring us the exceptional women's tournament we've been waiting for. The pandemic has certainly gotten me more tied into the women's game and I'm sure I'm not the only one, so I hope the iron is struck, because it's hot. The Women's U18 should also get some more attention, as a sidenote. I'm very much looking forward to the return of those tournaments.

My medal predictions are relatively straightforward. The States seem like the team to beat all things considered, and I think they'll do it over the Canadians while the Russians and Swedes battle it out for the bronze with the Russian goaltending giving them a bit of an advantage. I think the States have an advantage, so long as they can outscore their opponents. They play yeehaw hockey, but they do so for a reason. They're just really good at scoring goals. Canada may be the most talented team, but I always have questions and they historically have looked disjointed and unreliable in this tournament. If their best players dominate, it won't matter much, though.

The Swedes and Finns are bringing good rosters, and if Sweden gets some heroism in net, their firepower could get them into the gold medal game. With the fun individuals peppered around the tournament on other teams, I'm excited to see what comes of it. Will it color my rankings? Maybe a little bit with regards to names on my watchlist and players I'm more bullish on than other outlets, but to me, this tournament is more about the fun factor and seeing what the future of hockey is capable of. In this year's draft, the 2022 and 2023 eligibles all could steal the show, but don't lose sight of the underrated 2021 eligibles that might add to their resumes.

All the best, stay safe, wear a mask, we got this. Let's have some fun watching this!

- Will