Scouching's Midseason 2019 NHL Draft Rankings

​Let me start this off by saying that I really dislike numerical rankings that we all see and nitpick. I think it takes away from the whole point of drafting and developing junior talent. A professional hockey team is a large organization of various small groups of people trying to put the best product on the ice that they can. Coaches, managers and players of all kinds will have effects on the new players acquired, be it through free agency, a trade or the draft. The point, at least to me, is to draft the players you think are at the highest level that you believe can develop into being impact NHL players. Nearly every player ever drafted has required some level of care when it comes to development, and often teams that rush their prospects are the ones that end up paying for it the most, especially outside of the very highest of draft picks. My approach is to group players according to a tier system that I would be happy discussing at any of the picks within that group at a draft. I find that it provides room for much more nuanced discussion about what exactly you're looking for at a given pick.

My whole goal with this project is to help fans and teams to better understand exactly what it is that they're acquiring in a draft pick in a more empirical way, as well as highlight some names I've come across in my >600 players from around the world tracked in real time. Well over 15,000 games of data have been logged with quite a bit of hockey left to play. I've tried to watch as many games as I possibly can to refine the rankings a bit, but obviously all that data pushes things in a bit of a different direction.

A few notes before we get started:

1. There are no goalies on this list. I'm skeptical of drafting goalies in the first 2 rounds unless there are truly exceptional cases, but if you're wondering, I'd have a look at Spencer Knight and Hunter Jones towards the end of the 2nd, with some bigger swings like Pavel Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Erik Portillo, and Jesper Myrenberg later on.
2. Below the ranking table, there's a writeup with some notes on the aforementioned groups I would have these guys in. So check that out before providing feedback!
3. If you want more background on the metrics below, check out the YouTube video here!
4. If you want access to this full, live spreadsheet, it's accessed through Patreon!

Legend

• DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
• ​NHLeScore - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of 20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
• Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
• Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.
• Tier - A general view of where I could see a ceiling, with how confident I am of reaching that success. Tier I players could be significant impact players, but a tier I-E would be a real swing on high production with a big risk of falling short. SFTM indicates a shoot-for-the-moon player. I have no idea what the ceiling could be, but these guys show up well on the sheet and could be good value if available later on.

Player	Team	League	DY	NHLeScore	Inv%	Off.Cat%	Def.Cat%	Tot.Cat%	Rank	Tier
Jack Hughes (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	23.55	41.62%	46.24%	-7.48%	53.72%	1	I-B
Kaapo Kakko (RW)	TPS	Liiga	DY	25.33	25.89%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	2	I-B
Kirby Dach (C)	Saskatoon Blades	WHL	DY	21.85	33.82%	93.85%	42.62%	51.23%	3	II-A
Peyton Krebs (LW)	Kootenay Ice	WHL	DY	29.28	45.20%	75.80%	50.18%	25.61%	4	II-A
Dylan Cozens (C/RW)	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	DY	21.89	33.55%	81.88%	52.13%	29.75%	5	II-A
Bowen Byram (D)	Vancouver Giants	WHL	DY	29.03	28.18%	73.94%	82.16%	-8.22%	6	I-C
Arthur Kaliyev (LW)	Hamilton Bulldogs	OHL	DY	30.96	41.48%	124.36%	7.69%	116.67%	7	II-A
Bobby Brink (RW)	Sioux City Musketeers	USHL	DY	29.15	50.18%	97.02%	-0.11%	97.13%	8	II-A
Matthew Boldy (LW)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	13.20	23.78%	29.00%	9.39%	19.60%	9	II-A
Alex Turcotte (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	13.12	24.09%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	10	I-C
Trevor Zegras (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	16.72	30.35%	98.92%	-42.62%	141.54%	11	II-B
Nicholas Robertson (C/LW)	Peterborough Petes	OHL	DY	22.97	29.69%	49.44%	-37.04%	86.48%	12	II-B
Vasili Podkolzin (RW)	SKA-1946 St. Petersburg	MHL	DY	10.74	18.61%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	13	I-C
Alex Newhook (C)	Victoria Grizzlies	BCHL	DY	16.98	43.94%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	14	I-C
Pavel Dorofeyev (LW/RW)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	DY	30.85	60.38%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	15	I-D
Jakob Pelletier (LW)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	DY	21.63	34.80%	113.70%	-6.83%	120.53%	16	II-B
Ryan Suzuki (C)	Barrie Colts	OHL	DY	23.51	31.93%	83.02%	15.85%	67.17%	17	I-C
Philip Broberg (D)	AIK	SWE-2	DY	12.11	8.83%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	18	II-B
Mikko Kokkonen (D)	Jukurit	Liiga	DY	21.88	15.26%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	19	II-C
Lassi Thomson (D)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	DY	22.18	24.62%	112.46%	42.11%	70.35%	20	I-D
Raphaël Lavoie (C/RW)	Halifax Mooseheads	QMJHL	DY	15.51	27.17%	56.83%	43.56%	13.27%	21	III-A
Billy Constantinou (D)	Niagara IceDogs	OHL	DY	14.05	13.26%	64.85%	41.77%	23.08%	22	II-C
Nils Höglander (LW)	Rögle BK	SHL	DY	14.73	11.75%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	23	II-C
Cam York (D)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	11.38	14.45%	132.74%	-43.99%	176.73%	24	II-C
Anttoni Honka (D)	JYP	Liiga	DY	14.89	10.98%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	25	I-D
Albin Grewe (C/RW)	Djurgårdens IF J20	SWE-U20	DY	20.25	38.27%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	26	II-C
Cole Caufield (C/RW)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	13.70	25.87%	20.33%	-4.70%	25.03%	27	II-C
Victor Söderström (D)	Brynäs IF	SHL	DY	15.44	8.01%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	28	III-B
Ville Heinola (D)	Lukko	Liiga	DY	14.04	9.58%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	29	I-D
Matthew Robertson (D)	Edmonton Oil Kings	WHL	DY	16.75	17.05%	67.05%	11.04%	56.01%	30	II-C
Kaedan Korczak (D)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	DY	18.06	18.75%	74.03%	81.84%	-7.81%	31	II-C
Samuel Poulin (LW)	Sherbrooke Phoenix	QMJHL	DY	15.68	25.34%	97.97%	-18.83%	116.80%	32	III-B
Shane Pinto (F)	Lincoln Stars	USHL	DY	22.36	43.36%	110.56%	-12.56%	123.12%	33	II-D
Brett Leason (C)	Prince Albert Raiders	WHL	D+2	19.12	43.83%	128.30%	-24.63%	152.92%	34	III-C
Albert Johansson (D)	Färjestad BK J20	SWE-U20	DY	23.19	30.68%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	35	I-D
Nathan Légaré (RW)	Baie-Comeau Drakkar	QMJHL	DY	18.57	30.72%	89.32%	29.44%	59.88%	36	II-D
Ryan Johnson (D)	Sioux Falls Stampede	USHL	DY	10.59	12.18%	44.45%	17.12%	27.33%	37	II-D
Phillip Tomasino (C)	Niagara IceDogs	OHL	DY	17.71	23.38%	64.40%	-4.44%	68.84%	38	III-C
Nolan Foote (LW)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	DY	22.84	36.34%	60.95%	49.64%	11.32%	39	II-D
Simon Holmström (RW)	HV71 J20	SWE-U20	DY	12.15	22.25%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	40	II-D
Matias Maccelli (LW)	Dubuque Fighting Saints	USHL	DY	18.51	36.46%	64.44%	2.77%	61.66%	41	II-D
Vladislav Kolyachonok (D)	Flint Firebirds	OHL	DY	23.20	21.24%	42.24%	9.35%	32.88%	42	II-D
Thomas Harley (D)	Mississauga Steelheads	OHL	DY	26.81	23.58%	56.30%	122.42%	-66.13%	43	II-D
Dillon Hamaliuk (LW)	Seattle Thunderbirds	WHL	DY	16.33	26.40%	66.04%	13.95%	52.09%	44	III-C
Artemi Knyazev (D)	Chicoutimi Saguenéens	QMJHL	DY	17.70	19.79%	53.73%	24.14%	29.59%	45	II-D
Yegor Serdyuk (RW)	Victoriaville Tigres	QMJHL	DY	24.26	37.37%	135.51%	-7.24%	142.76%	46	II-D
Moritz Seider (D)	Adler Mannheim	DEL	DY	4.03	5.09%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	47	III-C
John Beecher (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	6.77	12.20%	81.41%	-38.20%	119.61%	48	II-D
Jake Lee (D)	Seattle Thunderbirds	WHL	DY	17.41	16.67%	100.17%	40.97%	59.20%	49	III-D
Mikhail Abramov (RW/C)	Victoriaville Tigres	QMJHL	DY	20.52	32.70%	91.98%	26.92%	65.06%	50	II-E
Patrik Puistola (LW)	LeKI	FIN-2	DY	14.03	26.36%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	51	II-D
Dmitri Sheshin (F)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	DY	19.45	34.08%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	52	II-E
Eric Ciccolini (RW)	Toronto Jr. Canadiens	OJHL	DY	13.25	41.45%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	53	III-C
Samuel Fagemo (LW/RW)	Frölunda HC	SHL	D+1	19.85	18.55%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	54	II-D
Nikola Pasic (C/LW)	Linköping HC	SHL	DY	8.89	7.34%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	55	II-E
Matthew Brown (F)	Des Moines Buccaneers	USHL	D+2	14.46	37.19%	127.68%	-14.38%	142.05%	56	III-C
Henri Nikkanen (C)	Jukurit	Liiga	DY	9.18	9.04%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	57	III-C
Robert Mastrosimone (C)	Chicago Steel	USHL	DY	13.64	25.45%	44.55%	31.63%	12.93%	58	III-C
Lucas Feuk (C/W)	Södertälje SK J20	SWE-U20	DY	19.37	37.18%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	59	II-E
Michal Teplý (LW)	HC Benatky nad Jizerou	CZE-2	DY	9.52	16.72%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	60	IV-B
Case McCarthy (D)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	7.99	10.12%	147.57%	-53.26%	200.83%	61	III-C
Matthew Struthers (C)	North Bay Battalion	OHL	D+1	23.58	42.73%	129.83%	-5.46%	135.30%	62	SFTM
Tristan Langan (C/LW)	Moose Jaw Warriors	WHL	D+2	20.14	54.31%	167.68%	16.25%	151.43%	63	SFTM
Reece Newkirk (C)	Portland Winterhawks	WHL	DY	17.04	25.97%	44.22%	65.44%	-21.23%	64	III-D
Mikhail Shalagin (F)	MHK Spartak Moskva	MHL	D+2	20.06	50.37%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	65	SFTM
Jordan Spence (D)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	DY	17.80	19.39%	87.09%	50.38%	36.70%	66	III-D
Maxim Cajkovic (RW/LW)	Saint John Sea Dogs	QMJHL	DY	17.60	29.24%	104.21%	19.86%	84.34%	67	II-E
Yegor Spiridonov (LW)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	DY	19.50	36.43%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	68	III-C
Alex Beaucage (RW/LW)	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	QMJHL	DY	18.07	27.16%	81.06%	-12.94%	94.00%	69	III-C
Marcus Kallionkieli (F)	Sioux City Musketeers	USHL	DY	14.53	26.38%	78.28%	-6.62%	84.89%	70	IV-C
Sergei Sapego (D)	Prince Albert Raiders	WHL	D+1	13.78	18.95%	92.73%	-26.56%	119.29%	71	SFTM
Brett Neumann (C)	Kingston Frontenacs	OHL	D+2	21.57	48.98%	167.20%	10.99%	156.21%	72	SFTM
John Farinacci (C)	Muskegon Lumberjacks	USHL	DY	12.17	22.48%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	73	III-C
Karl Henriksson (C)	Frölunda HC J20	SWE-U20	DY	14.43	27.88%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	74	IV-C
Yegor Afanasyev (F)	Muskegon Lumberjacks	USHL	DY	16.20	30.26%	56.80%	-5.76%	62.56%	75	II-E
Connor McMichael (C)	London Knights	OHL	DY	19.24	27.92%	52.53%	6.27%	46.26%	76	II-E
Alex Vlasic (D)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	7.98	9.39%	20.33%	-4.70%	25.03%	77	IV-B
Garrett Pinoniemi (F)	Holy Family Catholic	USHS	DY	17.67	63.16%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	78	II-E
Arvid Costmar (C)	Linköping HC J20	SWE-U20	DY	14.61	26.21%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	79	IV-C
Sasha Mutala (RW)	Tri-City Americans	WHL	DY	13.69	20.10%	92.17%	0.47%	91.70%	80	III-C
Nikita A. Rozhkov (F)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	D+1	18.76	42.45%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	81	III-C
Justin Bergeron (D)	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	QMJHL	D+1	17.68	20.99%	86.27%	-14.87%	101.14%	82	SFTM
Mike Koster (D)	Chaska High	USHS	DY	15.84	39.86%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	83	II-D
Charles Eklund (RW)	Mora IK J20	SWE-U20	DY	20.29	37.50%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	84	II-E
Amir Garayev (F)	Kapitan Stupino	MHL	DY	16.32	30.70%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	85	SFTM
Eric Uba (F)	Flint Firebirds	OHL	DY	17.75	26.16%	73.10%	-13.45%	86.55%	86	III-D
Alexander Campbell (C)	Victoria Grizzlies	BCHL	DY	13.18	33.59%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	87	II-E
Mathias Hänninen (F)	KooKoo U20	FIN-U20	DY	16.51	34.63%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	88	SFTM
Kaid Oliver (LW)	Victoria Royals	WHL	D+1	14.72	28.01%	151.03%	11.57%	139.46%	89	SFTM
Kristian Tanus (C/W)	LeKi	FIN-2	D+1	16.59	33.75%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	90	II-E
Luka Burzan (C)	Brandon Wheat Kings	WHL	D+1	17.63	33.91%	91.74%	2.26%	89.48%	91	SFTM
Axel Bergkvist (D)	Leksands IF	SWE-2	D+1	12.74	11.39%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	92	II-E
Kyle Topping (C)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	D+1	20.45	40.63%	164.79%	1.10%	163.69%	93	SFTM
Lucas Chiodo (LW)	Barrie Colts	OHL	D+2	15.65	38.89%	100.21%	12.97%	87.24%	94	SFTM
Jeremy McKenna (RW)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	D+2	16.00	36.97%	110.04%	29.86%	80.19%	95	SFTM
Keijo Weibel (LW/RW)	Langnau U20	SWI-U20	DY	13.90	39.29%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	96	SFTM
Lukas Pilö (D)	Örebro HK J20	SWE-U20	D+2	19.25	34.03%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	97	SFTM
Antti Tuomisto (D)	Ässät U20	FIN-U20	DY	17.92	25.65%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	98	SFTM
Ryder Donovan (C)	Duluth East	USHS	DY	10.19	42.04%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	99	III-C
Ryan Siedem (D)	Central Illinois Flying Aces	USHL	DY	16.00	19.79%	153.04%	0.25%	152.79%	100	SFTM
Vladislav Firstov (F)	Waterloo Black Hawks	USHL	DY	16.82	29.20%	49.73%	39.75%	9.98%	101	III-D

Group Notes

• Group 1 - Rank 1 - The Jack Hughes Group
  • ​It is almost a certainty that Jack Hughes will be the 1st overall selection in June. His speed through the neutral zone, ability to find open men in the offensive zone, ability to make himself the open man with the puck, and his relentless pace to his game is remarkable.  A slowish start with some poor playmaking decisions has given way to a steady and quick improvement leading to a good showing at the World Juniors.
  • That being said, the vast majority of his production in his USHL games has been on the power play. Under 10% of the NTDP's goals at even strength on average have Jack Hughes as the goal scorer or landing a primary assist. If his ES production matched his PP production, he'd be much, much further ahead in the NHLeScore department.
  • One other thing is, from my research, nobody has ever jumped from the USHL to the NHL. While I believe the level of play in the USHL has rapidly improved in the last decade, the team that drafts Hughes may need to be fearless in their willingness to either shelter his minutes early on, or even loaning him to a team in a lower level league, be it the Mississauga Steelheads or otherwise. 
  • The line between Hughes and Kakko has slimmed in my opinion, but there is still a clear dividing line in terms of upside between the two.
• Group 2 - Rank 2 - Kappo Kakko
  • ​Kakko is another one who almost certainly will go where he's ranked. His performance at the World Juniors was excellent overall and his year in the Liiga has been one of the best in recent years.
  • Kakko excels with the puck, just like Jack Hughes does, but his game is (in my opinion) much more suited to jump straight to the NHL today. He has a lot of strength with the puck and is able to work his way off of men twice his age to get to scoring areas. He's got the ability to dangle through players as well. He uses his speed to fly through the offensive zone in a variety of ways to draw defenses away from other players on his line, and he'll get them the puck. If they don't follow him, he'll find a way to get a great scoring chance.
  • He's been playing at most forward positions over this season, and while he's fought off injuries and cooled since a hot start, I find it hard to bump him off the #2 spot in favour of the next group.
• Group 3 - Ranks 3-14 - The Also Good's
  • ​While I would be surprised to see a team take a swing on say, Alex Newhook at #3, these groups are more about who could be in the discussion, however unlikely they would be as a pick.
  • Bobby Brink is a speedy winger who has exploded onto the map with little fanfare. A 50%INV in the USHL is unprecedented, and he's effective at both ends. He is an equally dangerous playmaker and goal scorer with great separation speed. As of today, it's possible Brink could go anywhere in the first two round, but I would not hesitate to put him in this group. He also beat out Vasily Podkolzin to win the Under-19 World Junior A Championship MVP award
  • Between Cozens, Dach and Krebs, I don't think you could go wrong as long as you develop their skillsets properly. I'm enticed by Krebs' raw production, as well as Dach and Cozens' combination of production, skillsets and their physical frames.
  • Alex Turcotte is a huge wildcard for me, but I have really liked what I've seen. Great skill with his stick one-on-one and a very agile and shifty skater who could have massive upside if you can snag him after a few picks roll by.
  • I'm a fan of Matthew Boldy's speed through the neutral zone like Jack Hughes, but he brings more of a goal scorer's flavour in the offensive zone. All these USHL guys are very much interchangeable to me.
  • Every way I slice it shows that OHL winger Arthur Kaliyev as an excellent prospect. He doubles goal differential when he's on the ice in Hamilton, and involves himself in over 40% of team goals. Perceived consistency/personality problems might need to be set aside if he's on the board at the later end of this group.
  • Bowen Byram fits the profile of last year's ridiculous CHL crop in an offensive sense, but he falls down a bit due to his apparent defensive shortcomings. He is likely the best defender available until the mid-late teens, so if you want a defenseman, I could see him going immediately after the big three WHL forwards between 3rd-5th.
  • Vasily Podkolzin is one heck of an enigma to me. He had a great World Junior A Championship, but his World Junior has left a lot to be desired. I see a lot of Grigori Denisenko in his profile. A tenacious, skilled winger who shows well with the eyes most of the time, but doesn't show up on the scoresheet as often as you'd like. His individual goal scoring ability using his speed and puck skill is special and worth buying on,  but I find his overall profile a bit overrated considering who else could be available where he's rumoured to be selected.​
• Group 4 - Ranks 16-30 - The Rest of the Best
  • ​"Leading" this group is MHL winger Pavel Dorofeyev. He's a very strong skater who may not be the fastest guy on the ice, but he excels at positioning his body and the puck in such a way where he can maneuver around defenders with ease. He's both a smart playmaker and shooter, and is able to assist in breakouts with his great hand-eye coordination knocking down clearing attempts and bad passes to keep the play flowing forward. His production is the best I've ever seen from a draft eligible in the MHL and he's been playing solid minutes in the KHL with Magnitogorsk. He's one I'm very curious to watch.
  • Anttoni Honka might be the biggest boom or bust prospect on this list. An excellent skating defenseman who has had troubles in the Liiga this year. He needs to get much stronger, especially in his own end, and he is an undersized defender who looks undersized. He's a great puck mover though, and his skating is excellent. If you're later in the 1st round and want to take a risk on big upside on the defensive side, he could be a good option.
  • Constantinou, Pelletier, Thomson and Kokkonen show up very well on my sheet, and are here due to just how much they do so. Constantinou is well over a point per 60 minutes at even strength, which is excellent for a defender in the OHL, and he's likely to fly under the radar on a poor Kingston team. Thomson may get more production from the power play, but he's a shoot-first guy who has big upside.
  • People compare Cole Caufield to Alex DeBrincat, but I really am not so sure. Caufield shoots the puck a ton, and he can really rip it. He's got agility on his feet that can help him find open space, but he's a pure finisher and I'm skeptical of the upside of past guys with a similar profile.
  • Cam York is an interesting case. If you want a dependable, intelligent puck mover who can help break you out of the defensive zone well, he's your guy. He makes the odd play in the offensive zone that really surprises me positively, so he has a pretty solid ceiling, I just don't see that instinct a whole lot every game. He uses the other players on the ice very effectively, and he could be a solid supplementary defenseman on any team with his passing ability and effortless skating ability.
  • Matt Robertson was a guy I really liked before the season, and has started a bit slow. He's improving, and his two-way numbers are looking good, so I think you could have a dependable all-around defenseman similar to Cam York. He's heating up, so it's entirely possible he ends up higher at the end of the season.
  • Nils Höglander is here because guys with his profile are rarely misses. Guys who produce well in the SuperElit league, and then produce decent points in the SHL are often undervalued.
• ​Group 5 - Ranks 31-50 - The Bubble BoiZ
  • ​​Shane Pinto is someone I need to watch more of. His profile is that of a 1st round pick, so he might be someone that sneaks in if he keeps up his production for the year.
  • Albert Johansson is the same. Point-per-game SuperElit defensemen at his age are rare, let alone 30%INV defenders. He's playing in the SHL off and on, and is one I'd want to see more of.
  • Ryan Johnson is my token eyetest guy. Really like his patience with the puck and his ability to calmly use his skill to find open space and move the puck effectively. He produces tremendously per 60 at even strength for a defender, and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone take a leap late in the 1st, but I think adding him to a rebuilding team early in the 2nd and letting him grow in college might be more advisable.
  • Thomas Harley is one I've been watching him for a few years now and I like how he's coming along. I imagine someone jumps at his production in the 1st round, but he has measurable defensive shortcomings, and his production is heavily drawn on the power play it seems.
  • Yegor Serdyuk has an excellent profile on a bad team, and often players like him fall inexplicably in the draft. He's a guy who I could see being great value unless he continues to improve as he has.
  • Artemi Knyazev is my other Ryan Johnson. Absolutely love his mobility and he's adjusting to the QMJHL more and more as time goes on. Goals aren't scored often when he's on the ice, but he's getting points on over 30% of those goals, and at time of data collection, they were all primary points. He's an excellent skater with a really great ability to spot teammates and get them the puck in the offensive zone. Even as a potential power play specialist, there could be great value with Knyazev.
  • Brett Leason is the first overager to appear on the list. His production is highly enticing, and even after age-adjustments, it isn't ridiculous to think he goes in the 1st round, especially to a contender who could use a potential boost in the next year or two. He's shown real good flashes of being a guy who just seems to "get it". Pucks land on his stick and stay there, he gets the puck to open men, and he works to be dangerous on any shift. His production at even strength is ridiculous, and there could be solid value. Just seems to feel like a guy you want your younger players to aspire to be.
• ​Group 6 - Ranks 51-101 - Everyone Else​
  • ​I'm a believer in Dmitri Sheshin. He's caught my eye more than once watching Pavel Dorofeyev. Really small, but very skilled and very speedy in transition. He's elusive and I think that over time he could become a very interesting skilled forward. Same goes for Matthew Brown, a D+2 in Des Moines. He's scored a ton wherever he plays with an off-year in his draft year. Lots of speed, dangerous goal scorer. I see buy-low upside there.
  • Nikola Pasic follows the Höglander rule. He's playing in the SHL and producing. His SuperElit year is very solid too. Samuel Fagemo is a measurably excellent goal scorer historically who went undrafted last year on the grounds of being one-dimensional, but he seems to be doing just fine in the SHL as well. Producing at near-1st round levels for a 19 year old, it wouldn't be insane to see him go much earlier than 51.
  • ​Everyone talks about Alex Newhook, but do not sleep on his linemate Alexander Campbell, nor his D+1 teammate Carter Berger, who isn't on this list for some reason. A bit smaller, Campbell is a reliable scorer from the last couple years who has excelled with Newhook. Really skilled and slippery, he may not be as strong along the boards, but in open ice he's a dangerous puck handler who makes a great 1/2 punch with Newhook. Berger is a defender with fantastic skating ability and is an extremely exciting to watch. I imagine he'll be available later on, and a defender with mobility like his, a willingness to shoot, and a great mind for making hard, accurate passes could be very enticing. I mean the guy has 22 goals in 35 games; as a defender.
  • Eric Ciccolini is an OJHL winger who I've seen quite a bit of. He's got good separation speed and can be lethal offensively especially with his wrist shot, but leaves a bit to be desired in his own end and tends to disappear from play a little bit. A ~40%INV is still very good, and I could see him being good value in the middle rounds.
  • Justin Bergeron is an interesting D+1 defender in the QMJHL who shoots first and asks questions later. 21%INV is also very good, and he drives two-way play well. If you want someone who's development is a bit fast-tracked, he could be an option.
  • Kristian Tanus, Axel Bergqvist, Nikita Rozhkov, and Antti Tuomisto are guys who have great statistical profiles, but are a bit undersized at their positions. Tanus is a great playmaker who has been cleaning up Finland's 2nd division with some time in the Liiga. These guys would all be projects, but they're all good skaters with good playmaking ability.
  • Garrett Pinoniemi is rocking a 63.2%INV in high school in Minnesota, which is hilariously high. He and Mike Koster are high school guys I absolutely have my eye on as June approaches. John Farinacci is another high school guy I've liked, but I've only seen a game he played with the USA U-18 team in the USHL. He showed some great transition ability with the puck and always seemed to be applying pressure on the puck if he wasn't the one carrying him.