The NHL CSS List is Out. Here are my Thoughts.

The NHL Central Scouting Midterm list is now online and viewable, so if you haven't checked it out yet, definitely do so here before reading further. You don't have to, it just might be good to familiarize yourself, but I'm not the police, so I won't come after you.

Understanding NHL Central Scouting's philosophy is an... interesting exercise. There's a clear preference towards size, a bit of a tendency to value older players, and splitting the players into North American and European skaters goaltenders makes it difficult to understand the landscape as a whole. That doesn't mean we can't explore some cases that are, in my humble opinion, either overvalued, or in many cases undervalued. So behold, three players I'm currently highest and lowest on relative to the NHL Central Scouting List, as well as some honourable mentions.

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Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Metric	Value
NHLeS	​17.80
INV%​	17.45%
ES P1/60	0.51
ESGF/60	2.33
ESGA/60	1.70
OffCat%	6.35%
DefCat%	5.11%

This one is a bit of a given, based on the analytical work I do, but I have a hard time agreeing with Guhle being a legitimate top talent coming out of this draft. It can certainly be seen that considering Guhle's size and playing style, he isn't the prototypical 6'6" bus on skates that a team hopes turns into Zdeno Chara. Guhle is a surprisingly mobile player who can certainly hold his own in all three zones. It's just a question of upside to me. My viewings of Guhle indicate a player focused more on chasing hits near the blueline in lieu of making a simpler play that maintains position between himself and the middle of the ice. His play with the puck is often somewhat uninspiring and can lead to failures exiting the defensive end.

It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.

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Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Metric	Value
NHLeS	23.91
INV%​	​17.45%
ES P1/60	2.04
ESGF/60	3.86
ESGA/60	1.47
OffCat%	3.76%
DefCat%	42.70%

​Let me get this out of the way: I really enjoy watching Jack Quinn play hockey. Beyond that, his September 2001 birthday coupled with a much higher focus on goal scoring on a remarkably talented OHL team bring some questions to the table. He's very skilled and has good two-way metrics, but I'm skeptical of his long term outlook considering how impressive some players nearly a year younger (Brett Berard, Martin Chromiak, and Dmitri Ovchinnikov come to mind) have been. I'm always skeptical of players who don't generate assists as it implies that utilizing teammates in a system might not be a strong trait and that a sense of "dynamism" might be lacking. 

Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.

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Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Metric	Value
NHLeS	14.45
INV%​	​16.57%
ES P1/60	1.77
ESGF/60	3.07
ESGA/60	2.61
OffCat%	-23.84%
DefCat%	9.71%

I see the appeal of Will Cuylle. I really do. Good straight line speed, constantly applying pressure on teammates, loves the physical side of the game, he's a brand of player that I know teams still value highly. I just do not see his value being worth what a team might be willing to pay for. He's steadily improved this year after a bit of a slow start, but I don't see Cuylle being much more than an F3 who creates space for linemates through his physical play, and I'm not sure that's worth a 1st, 2nd, or depending on who's available, a 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If he continues to improve, he could come off this list, but I've also come away ​far more impressed with Jean-Luc Foudy in the times I've viewed the Spitfires, and Foudy is ranked just one spot ahead of Cuylle on the NHL's list.

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Undervalued

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Metric	Value
NHLeS	​8.48
INV%​	​12.24%
ES P1/60	1.05
ESGF/60	2.74
ESGA/60	2.53
OffCat%	11.39%
DefCat%	21.37%

​Holloway's remarkable AJHL production hasn't followed him to a stacked Wisconsin offense, but I'm honestly not concerned. In my viewings, his power play time is restricted, he's playing down the linup a bit, and it feels as though the increased pace of play to the NCAA can be a bit much for the former AJHLer. His talent is undeniable though, and I've seen him take over shifts on his own more often than I've seen him disappear. He brings a great motor with a rangy two-way game with slick offensive tools. He's a player I'd certainly take my time with before taking him to the NHL, but I really do believe if the NHL believes he's the 10th best available North American, he could turn out to be a major steal of the draft if available in the late teens or early 20s.

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Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Metric	Value
NHLeS	​18.67
INV%​	31.45%
ES P1/60	1.59
ESGF/60	2.54
ESGA/60	1.69
OffCat%	-28.17%
DefCat%	38.15%

I personally find Simontaival a major boom or bust player. He's done very well on an extremely talented Tappara junior team with a proven track record against men from 2018-19's Mestis season. That being said, his talent level indicates that he should be clapping the Finnish junior leagues ​​to pieces, but he's been inconsistent. Simontaival is an electrifying skater with wonderful skill and a great ability to get chances from high and medium danger areas. At the same time, he can be careless with the puck and can try to do a bit too much. Whether he stays with Tappara, or comes to North America, he has a whack of potential. A loan to KOOVEE of the Mestis has been promising for him with four points in six games, but as much raw skill and speed that Simontaival has, there's a possibility he's a very talented kid who just can't get over that final "hump" we see with so many skilled players as they develop into NHLers.

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Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Metric	Value
NHLeS	​15.89
INV%​	​16.02%
ES P1/60	1.62
ESGF/60	3.50
ESGA/60	1.62
OffCat%	-14.79%
DefCat%	26.11%

Joni Jurmo caught my eye very early in the year watching Jokerit's talented junior team. He's a big defenseman with remarkable mobility and great primary point production at even strength. His hands and ability to move puck into and through the neutral zone is excellent, which is exactly what I believe you need out of a modern defender. He cuts off zone transitions extremely well and chokes out breakouts while staying in position. Passing and carrying decisions are good, but he isn't the crispiest passing defensemen out there and can miss his target a bit more than I'd like. I could easily see a good minutes-eating defender down the line, especially if he slips into the middle rounds of the draft and you're willing to be patient and develop the profile he's exhibited so far.

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​Closing Thoughts

Trust me, there are many more. The NHL CSS rankings get a little bit hairy regarding players that are tough to view, in limited roles on their teams, or perform well in more subtle analytical data rather than raw point production. While that certainly doesn't render the CSS rankings moot, it is a reminder that it is important to use data and video work to supplement live viewings as much as possible to get a firm view on the players available in the draft.

If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.