The 2019 Post-Lottery NHL Mock Draft

Similar to numerical draft rankings, I'm not the biggest fan of mock drafts, but it seems like it's a rite of passage every year to explore who teams and fans might be looking at with their respective picks. That doesn't mean we can't have a bit of fun with the idea, so I've decided to split this mock draft into two parts: what my gut thinks will happen, and what my brain would do if I were in the same scenario, and each will get their own explanation.

Teams will value skills very differently from one another and there is a ton of time between now and the draft for guys to make the case to move up or down the draft, so that is important to keep in mind as draft day approaches. If your favourite team didn't take your favourite player, that's totally fine and let me know either here on on Twitter! None of this matters anyways!

Without further ado, behold. My Post-Lottery NHL Mock Draft.

---

#1 - New Jersey Devils
Gut: Jack Hughes - C
Brain: ​Jack Hughes - C

Gutsplanation: The Devils had their magic number called and as such, jumped from the 3 slot to the 1 slot and get the chance to add a centre who will make their team one of the more threatening down the middle in their division almost overnight. I can't see the Devils looking at Hischier/Zajac/Zacha and passing on the chance to add Jack Hughes to that depth in favour of a likely winger in Kaapo Kakko. Hughes is a phenomenal skater with exceptional playmaking ability who has pro-level transition ability and at the very least will be an extremely effective puck rusher down the middle. Nobody else in the draft gets pucks up the ice as efficiently nor as quickly as Hughes to my eyes, and his ceiling is extremely high as an open-ice speedy playmaker.
​
Brainsplanation: Not much else to add, but my brain always seems to tell me that you can never have too many centres with ludicrous speed who can rush a puck through the middle of the ice. Everything else is a bonus, and Hughes brings plenty. He does get rubbed off pucks, and he can make the odd poor decision, but his profile leads me to believe that his upside when he's a more mature pro could be the best out of this draft.

---

#2 - New York Rangers
Gut: Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain: Kaapo Kakko - RW​

Gutsplanation: This is a no-brainer. I've been on the "Kakko is almost Hughes" train since November, but I don't think Kakko's potential ability is at the same level as Hughes. Kakko will be a great pro, however. His puck protection ability, his ability to exit and enter zones, and his all-around offensive talent make Kakko a fantastic piece to drop onto the Rangers roster in October. He should be effective immediately, and brings a Forsberg/Jagr-esque power offense to a team that already has Vitalii Kravtsov waiting around. The Rangers may need a centre more, it would be a very hard discussion to see them looking past Kakko.
​
Brainsplanation: See above. Kakko is good. Kakko is the #2 player available. You can work around the issues down the middle if it means you get Kaapo freaking Kakko. He also strikes me as a great fit with for David Quinn.

---

#3 - Chicago Blackhawks
Gut: Alex Turcotte - C
Brain: Alex Turcotte - C

Gutsplanation: Vasili Podkolzin was my first thought here, especially since there are connections to SKA St. Petersburg after their Andrei Altybarmakyan pick in 2017. On the other hand, Chicago has had a trend of drafting analytics-based picks and are likely looking to improve sooner rather than later, a scenario which Podkolzin doesn't really fit into as he hasn't had the club production you'd like, and his future in North America is murky at best. Turcotte is from the area, and his archetype really seems like it would suit the Blackhawks future as their core ages. Turcotte brings fantastic puck skills and a great two-way game that I think is really valuable in the NHL. He makes his linemates better, and while I'm not always the biggest fan of "two-way" or "all-around" players this high without a gamebreaking level of speed, Turcotte bucks that trend. He just seems to play the game the right way; hard on pucks, using teammates effectively, getting to the net, using skill to create space, and wins more puck battles than he loses. Turcotte is likely a year away, but being slotted in behind Jonathan Toews above Dylan Strome in 2020-21 is extremely enticing.
​
Brainsplanation: See above. The analytical case for Turcotte is extremely compelling, and part of me wants my brain to put Kirby Dach here based on what I've seen, but Chicago seems willing to sacrifice players with more flair to their game in favor of players with a more intelligent, responsible and simple  streak to their game. Turcotte should be a fantastic and versatile centre who could be a great piece to add to a future that contains names like Barratt, Kurashev, and Nordgren.

---

#4 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Kirby Dach - C
Brain: Kirby Dach - C

Gutsplanation: With the options available here, I'm imagining Colorado with MacKinnon and Kirby Dach not far behind him. Dach is a great skater with a ton of skill for someone his size. His puck protection ability is excellent as well, and I think the case for a top-level goal scoring center is there in spades. My gut tells me that the potential 1/2 punch will be too tempting to pass up and the final piece from the Duchene trade will be in place.
​
Brainsplanation: While Dach's analytical profile isn't as enticing as Dylan Cozens, I believe the upside is higher for Dach at the next level. Cozens seems to get away with producing on the back of his size and strength, where Dach brings a speed and skill level that I haven't seen as much of out of Cozens. Cozens has better two-way play, but I'm always going to fall on the side of swinging on skill and speed in 2019, especially with a package as rare as Dach's.

---

#5 - Los Angeles Kings
Gut: Dylan Cozens - C
Brain: Bowen Byram - D

Gutsplanation: Cozens just seems like a perfect fit for the Kings. Playing behind Anze Kopitar is certainly a good place for him to learn how to play a 200-foot game, and it really seems like Kings hockey is based on possession and control rather than speed and skill. With other centres like Jarret Anderson-Dolan, Rasmus Kupari, Akil Thomas and hopefully Gabe Vilardi on the way, the future looks a lot brighter in LA with Cozens if they want to keep playing traditionally "Kings"-brand hockey.
​
Brainsplanation: Finally. A disagreement. If I'm the LA Kings, I'm a little bit more concerned with my ability to push pace in games, and I also am a bit concerned that I have one really notable defense prospect in Kale Clague. The Kings need a lot, and Byram is the only defender who can really hold a candle to the ridiculous 2018 crop of defenseman that went in the 1st round. If you need a defender here, Byram is your guy, and I'm pretty certain that he's one of the Top-5 players overall, so it isn't really much of a reach to go out and get him here. Tons of offensive involvement, and his defensive metrics came a long way over the year, pulling himself from a negative Cat% to a +75% since the World Juniors. Cozens may be more of the same, but Byram brings more upside and brings something in the way of speed and aggression to the game the Kings could really use.

---

#6 - Detroit Red Wings
Gut: Trevor Zegras - C/W
​Brain: Trevor Zegras - C/W

Gutsplanation: Detroit snagged Zadina, Berggren, and Veleno last year. Skill, skill, and skill. Zegras would be more of the same, and brings a level of puck skill you can never have enough of. Zegras has impressed me more and more over the year with his vision and passing ability. Similar to Turcotte, and not far behind him in raw talent, Zegras brings an agility to the game with a level of flair that not many else have. He can make any offensive-zone situations very dangerous very quickly, and even if he becomes a full time winger, the idea of him on a line with Mike Rasmussen parked in front of the net sounds very much not fun for opponents to counter.
​
Brainsplanation: Once again, no real disagreement between the brain and guts on this one. Zegras isn't far back from Turcotte, but I'm pretty confident that his upside as an offensive playmaker could make him a more exciting player for Red Wings fans to watch. Detroit seems to love swinging big on players like Zegras, and they've had no shortage of time to watch him play. After some time, he could be a really solid piece up front for the Red Wings.

---

#7 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Bowen Byram - D
Brain - Dylan Cozens - C

Gutsplanation: The defense group in Buffalo is still simply not good enough, even with Rasmus Dahlin, but Byram gives them a pure offensive weapon that could give the Sabres an excellent 1/2 punch to go along with a pretty deep group of young players at the forward position. Byram improved steadily over the year and improved greatly in his own end, but his best asset is his aggressiveness in the offensive zone and crossing the offensive blueline with the puck. He may be a little ways away, but Buffalo would do well to swing big at a position they could further improve on top of Dahlin.
 
Brainsplanation: With Byram gone at 5, I can see Buffalo going for a centre, and Cozens is likely the best all-around centre still available on paper to me. Cozens brings a ton in all areas of the ice and could slot in as a solid middle-six centre with Casey Mittelstadt behind Jack Eichel. Cozens gives Buffalo plenty of flexibility and the argument could be made that he gets a tryout period with the Sabres in sheltered minutes. You can never have too many centres, and the Sabres could use a bit more size down the middle down the line. Cozens gives them something they lost when they traded Ryan O'Reilly, and he could help solidify the depth in the lineup in both the near and far future.

---

#8 - Edmonton Oilers
Gut: Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain: Peyton Krebs - LW

Gutsplanation: In both cases, Dach and Cozens are off the board at this point. You never want to draft on need, but there's an argument to be had that the player with the highest upside is Peyton Krebs. A crafty playmaker with good puck skill on a very bad Kootenay Ice team, Krebs may quickly become a piece on the Oilers roster with names like Yamamoto, Bouchard, Benson and Marody to help get that team out of the basement and hopefully stay out of it. It's hard to pass up, even with Podkolzin still available in both cases. The Oilers need to improve, and they could use a pure winger with skill and scoring ability, which Krebs brings.
​
Brainsplanation: See above. It just feels like a match. Alex Newhook could be an interesting option, but he likely needs a longer development time, and the Oilers simply can't afford to be patient, and Krebs is certainly no slouch relative to Newhook.

---

#9 - Anaheim Ducks
​​Gut: Vasili Podkolzin - LW
​Brain: Alex Newhook - C

Gutsplanation: Podkolzin and the Ducks seem like a match. They've got Max Jones and Maxime Comtois, and with the power, speed, skill, and tenacity that Podkolzin brings, the Ducks seem like a fit for Podkolzin. I find Podkolzin to be overrated by many, mostly due to his one-dimensional play and lack of production in leagues he should be dominating, but his ability to score goals and use his body positioning at high speed to get to high danger areas is certainly worthy of a pick at #9. He may be a few years away, but I feel that the rebuilding is only beginning in Anaheim and they can afford to be (and should be) somewhat patient with where their team is going.
​
Brainsplanation: Yes, I just said Podkolzin has every reason to go here, but my brain just can't pull the trigger when a multifaceted transition centre is on the board in Alex Newhook. I'm a big Newhook fan, and he'll need time to hone his shortcomings, but his skating, puckhandling ability, and offensive versatility are extremely good and bode very well for his future. He's the player that reminds me most of a B-level Jack Hughes in this draft, and if you want a centre who can get pucks up ice at high speeds, Newhook is a great option at #10.

---

#10 - Vancouver Canucks
​Gut: Alex Newhook - C
​Brain: Cole Caufield - C/LW

Gutsplanation: Vancouver seems to really like drafting skilled players high, with Hughes, Boeser, and Pettersson being their most recent 1st rounders. Vancouver surprised many this year, but I'm not sure they're going to add anyone who immediately would jump straight to the NHL reliably here, and playing the waiting game with Newhook could pay in spades down the line. Pettersson/Horvat/Newhook sounds pretty spooky to me come 2021 or so, and I would expect the Canucks to be more than familiar with him already as he's been in their backyard for two seasons now.
​
Brainsplanation: I think Cole Caufield is one of the most underrated players in the draft if not the most. Everyone keeps saying "Alex DeBrincat this, Alex DeBrincat that", but I frankly think Caufield brings more to the game than DeBrincat does. He has a speed, shiftiness, and puck control ability that DeBrincat doesn't, from what I've seen. He improved over the year, and while he has defensive shortcomings, that part of the game isn't the most important for a player like him. Caufield is a dangerous puck protector with a lightning quick shot an a penchant for getting to the net when he doesn't have the puck. I think he's right there with Vasili Podkolzin as the best player available at 10, but I don't think Vancouver is willing to wait for Podkolzin, and Caufield might be a one-and-done before putting on a Canucks jersey in a year's time.

---

#11 - Philadelphia Flyers
Gut: Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain: Vasili Podkolzin - LW

Gutsplanation: I've heard the Flyers need a scoring winger. Boldy at 11 is arguably the one that fits their perceived culture change best. There's a new regime in Philadelphia, and it sounds like they want to be the Big Bad Flyers again. That doesn't scream "Cole Caufield" to me, and Boldy just feels like a guy who would make a great flyer one day. He's a gritty, smart winger who wins plenty of puck battles and always seems to find space in the offensive zone. I'm not totally certain there's massive upside, but Boldy has a projectable game that suits the Philadelphia archetype best.

Brainsplanation: I highly doubt Podkolzin slips to 11, but he'd be certainly the guy I look at over Matt Boldy. I think the patience of letting him develop in Russia is something Philadelphia can afford to have. They won't be as bad as they were this year (one would hope), and Podkolzin at 11 would be a great pickup if nobody else decides to risk a high If Podkolzin can improve his team play, there could be a fantastic two-way weapon there that would be worth waiting for. 

---

#12 - Minnesota Wild
​Gut: Spencer Knight - G
Brain: Ryan Suzuki - C

Gutsplanation: The Wild under Paul Fenton went totally off the board last year taking Filip Johansson, who has not been great. They then selected Jack McBain who also has not been great. These two picks are heavy, big, "hockey men", and while Spencer Knight isn't that, the Wild's only goaltending prospect of note is Kappo Kahkonen, and while he has been a capable AHL goalie, I don't imagine he's seen to be a sure fire goaltender of the future. Spencer Knight just screams a "character hockey player" pick with tons of pedigree, and would fill a need that, if it works out, could be a rock solid foundation to rebuild the team around over the next few seasons. I don't think the Wild are set for success, so patience while Knight develops could make their lives much easier when it comes time to play a starting goaltender. Would I make this call? No. But the Wild love their U.S. program guys, the Wild love guys who have the right mindset for the game, and the Wild will certainly need goaltending in a few years. One thing that has struck me about Knight is just how calm he constantly is in net. I know nothing about developing goaltenders, and I certainly value goalies who stop more than 90% of shots with the 2019 US U-18 program in front of him, but I think Knight is a goaltender who exudes and radiates confidence, and I think that will take him quite a ways.
​
Brainsplanation: If I'm running the Wild, I would think the best pick here is a project I can let develop for a few years while I slowly reconstruct the NHL team. In terms of pure upside, Ryan Suzuki fits that mold really well. You can never have enough centres, and Suzuki brings a fantastic level of skill and speed to the position that I really like. Boldy would be my other option here, but I think there's just a higher ceiling in Suzuki's game, and usually ties go to the middle of the ice. Suzuki was part of an exclusive club crossing 100% Tot.Cat%, indicating the percentage increase in total goal differential  relative to his teammates, and while his primary involvement lagged behind his total point involvement, his playing style lends itself to seeing that improve in the next year or two in the OHL. He may take time, but it's a swing I'd be willing to take here.

---

#13 - Florida Panthers
​​Gut: Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain: Arthur Kaliyev - RW

Gutsplanation: I literally just waxed poetic about Ryan Suzuki, but the Panthers have gone for huge skill at every 1st round pick since 2016. Suzuki is the biggest pure skill pick on the board here and while Arthur Kaliyev is on the board, I'm unsure Dale Tallon is one for skilled players who tend to not move around the ice with a certain level of "gusto". Suzuki certainly gets you out of your seat and as with the previous notes on him, ties usually go to the middle of the ice. Yes, they might need a defenseman, but that's an NHL team problem that can't be solved through the draft immediately. I would imagine every defender available around here is at least two years away from NHL contribution. If they want a defender, landing one through giving up this pick would be my route. You can also find good value in defenders later on in this draft, in my opinion.

Brainsplanation: On the other hand, Dale Tallon and others might be wrong and Arthur Kaliyev could be a disgusting teammate for a group consisting of Barkov, Huberdeau, Dadonov, Trocheck Tippett, and Borgstrom in 2020. I see a bit of Phil Kessel's brain in Kaliyev. I can see why he might drive some people nuts, but I think it's misguided and misses just how talented he is. His shot is excellent, and his intelligence in the offensive zone is such that he can identify open space quickly, get set up, and get a shot off before anyone figures out what he's up to. He capitalizes on the chances he gets and has a great scoring touch, be it off a shot of his own, or as a primary assist off a pass. Kaliyev trails only Bobby Brink in even strength primary involvement percentage with 31.2%, and is the only player in the entire CHL over 40%INV. Yes, his intensity level might need to come up if he's to find real NHL success, but on talent alone, there's an intelligent scoring forward who has a great set of skills to build on and he will be the only thing that holds him back.

---

#14 - Arizona Coyotes
Gut: Cam York - D
​Brain: Matthew Boldy - LW

 Gutsplanation: I feel like Cam York is misjudged by the hockey media. I don't see him as an offensive defenseman as much as a two-way pace-controlling defender who has the capability of jumping into a rush and participating offensively. He can quarterback a power play just fine, but his best assets are in how he can stifle rushes with his stick and calmly move pucks around the ice. You can't have enough defenders with that profile, if you ask me, and his mobility up the ice certainly can take him a long way. I think Arizona's analytics team would like to add a talent like York to build with, especially as their defense group ages. York may take time to develop his offensive tools, as well as refine his defensive positioning, but I think he'll be a useful piece down the line. 
​
Brainsplanation: Simply put, Boldy is the best player available at 14 based on who's taken. The Coyotes have quite a few B-level scoring wingers, but Boldy slipping here would be a great chance to add someone with a lot of upside to become a smart, skilled power winger that I feel Rick Tocchet will really like working with so long as he's employed by the Coyotes. Boldy just seems to "get it" when he plays and seems to find himself earning and creating dangerous offensive chances. The defensive numbers could be better, but you can let him develop, keep improving the team, and hope that the Coyotes start the season on time in 2019-20.

---

#15 - Montreal Canadiens
Gut: Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
​Brain: ​Cam York - D

Gutsplanation: Yeah, yeah, yeah,  Montreal kid going at 15 to Montreal, I know. While this may be convenient, it certainly would be quite the story. Montreal hasn't gone with a French 1st round pick Louis LeBlanc in 2009, but I feel that Lavoie has what it takes to be a solid Canadien. He's older for the draft class, and his production lags behind other QMJHL players such as Samuel Poulin and Jakob Pelletier, but Lavoie's size and pedigree might be something Montreal would want to swing on. A massive playoff performance also certainly helps. I think Lavoie could be a solid middle six forward with centre potential on a team that could use another centre down the line. My brain wouldn't put him this high, but Marc Bergevin is full of surprises, and with a team that barely missed the NHL, they might be looking for an older player that could step in for at least a tryout next year. Who knows, if they really want someone who can slot in, do they jump at the chance to get WHL standout Brett Leason? (probably not, but weeeee).
​
Brainsplanation: If they really wanted a French player, I'd probably look at Samuel Poulin first, but I think the Habs value players with solid responsible all-around play in both ends and are more than willing to pull talent from anywhere. Part of me thought Victor Soderstrom would be the guy here, but I think they really like how their recent American picks have developed, and with Cam York still available, York would bring a relatively responsible two way game to a backend that could use another good defense prospect. York is great in transition but will need to work on his play when pucks are hemmed in his own zone, and I think he'll learn how to play more than hard enough with the coaching staff and group of teammates the Canadiens have assembled for him when he's ready.

---

Final Things

I don't know what's going to happen on draft day, and things get wild and crazy between now and then anyways. I'm certainly curious about what's going to happen. Teams will jump to draft their guys, teams will take risks, teams will hit home runs, and teams will make blatant mistakes. All it takes is for a player to be #2 on a few teams lists in order to see yourself drop like a rock. It happened above for me with guys like Matt Boldy and Vasili Podkolzin, but it certainly isn't a death sentence for their careers. It's important to keep that in mind as a fan of this wonderful sport, and just enjoy the information presented. Be excited for the guys your team puts their faith in and hope that they handle their development well, because there's nothing better than seeing athletes follow and achieve their dreams, even if your team is run by insane people.

The rest of the picks in this mock draft will come after the Stanley Cup is awarded to whomever earns it, so stay tuned for that.