The Scouching Blog

Scouching's Kinda-Early 2020 Final-ish Ranking Maybe?

4/20/2020

Well it's that time again. With all the uncertainty in the world, we're kinda getting an NHL playoff I suppose, and the draft has been pushed back. In a weird stroke of luck, the extra preparation time has been a huge opportunity to keep refining data and getting a wider and better sample of this draft class. This is the first installment of a full list of 111 players I usually rank, plus a 25 player Watchlist full of guys that check some boxes either analytically and/or with the old-fashioned e y e t e s t. Why 111, you ask? Because it's 1 three times and I make the rules. Thing do get significantly more blenderized in my head beyond 93, but nitpick if you dare.

In my rankings things have changed significantly since November. The gap between the 11-20 range has widened to really encompass my 11-30 range, and you could seriously make an argument to me to take any of those players. I obviously have my preferences and they're ordered as such, but it's a very interesting year to have many picks in the top three rounds. It's a fascinating group of players, and when considering all available factors, it's really hard to nail down specific order of player's I'd select, and frankly I think that's okay. How teams develop and form them into the future role they can fit into is what will separate this class, but there's tons to play around with.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Without further ado, behold an early-final rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft, along with explanations of some the decisions made. As always, thank you all for your support, I hope you and yours are safe and well and remain so.

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

This one isn't complicated and shouldn't surprise you. People who are down on Byfield all of a sudden are either overvaluing the World Juniors, overvaluing his shortcomings, which do exist, and are also wrong.
Byfield is a player that is nearly a full year younger, and while he can't match Lafrenière's team shot attempt rates while on the ice at either end, he's showing much more of a playmaker tendency with 15.7 dangerous pass attempts/60 to Lafrenière's 9.4, and outpaces Lafrenière's offensive threat metric by a hair (22.2 vs. 21.4).
Last season, Lafrenière was in the exact same boat as Byfield at the World Juniors. A year later, he's the MVP. Does Byfield have holes in his game? Sure, but a 6'4" 17 year old who skates like Byfield does, shoots like he does, makes plays like he does and shows skill like he does don't grow on trees. He may need time, but there's absolutely a solid probability that Byfield turns into a more valuable player across the full rink.
...But Alexis Lafrenière is still extremely good, and he should be NHL good immediately. He's skilled, he plays hard, he can shoot, he can make plays, he's basically a player I think Hockey Canada goes to bed at night dreaming about. He can be a frustrating player to me with his body language, his tendency to park himself high at defensive bluelines or the neutral zone, and getting too aggressive from time to time (he was thrown out of one of the games I tracked for elbowing a defender in the face), but he has all the potential to be a premiere offensive winger with a bit of a swagger to him at both ends.

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Gunler and Holloway have dropped out and Amirov has popped in since November, but this is a very, very close group that will largely come down to fit down the road.
I still might be the biggest Marco Rossi fan out there. I love nearly everything this guy does on the ice, and I think there's tremendous potential if you give him time to build strength and experience.
That being said, at 3-5, you could convince me to swing on any of the three I have ranked. I think Raymond will be a tremendous two-way winger, Stützle will at least be an electrifying offensive winger, and Rossi could be a top level quarterback with a huge toolbox to play with.
From Perfetti onwards, it's really about what style of player you're looking for.
Perfetti has skating concerns, but I believe there's more than enough skill, edgework, and creativity to make it work.
Jamie Drysdale may not be a top pair in your face and in the highlight reel type of defenseman, but he should be able to eat minutes in a variety of situations without much issue, especially in transition.
Holtz is a player with many data-focused issues in my work, but he feels like a player that will go against what the data indicates. His shot is electrifying, and his skating ability is more than enough to chip in away from the puck. Like I said many times in the report, if there's anyone I want shooting from non-dangerous areas, it's Holtz, but shot selection improvements might make him one of the more lethal goal scorers in this generation of talent.
Lundell is a rock solid NZ play facilitator. Extremely refined and responsible in his own end, underrated offensively, and great at applying pressure away from the puck. There's are reasons he was among the leaders in Liiga shot attempt differentials. While Lundell might not be a player I saddle with expectations of a decade as my #1 centre, a highly responsible middle six centre who could reasonably play any minutes imaginable and drive good results is fine by me.
I'm a goalie skeptic, especially in the 1st round, but I will refuse to undervalue a potential #1 goaltender. They make your coaches, players, and general managers look like geniuses year after year. Askarov is playing at a level no other goalie has before at his age, for a team that has every reason to play him on one of their two junior level teams, he's stopped pucks at the men's league level, and has been excellent at every international tournament except the World Juniors. I'll forgive that one tournament and look at the plethora of evidence that if you're going to bet on a goalie, he's as good a bet as you'll find.

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

There he is. M A R A T. I constantly look for players that I'd rather have ahead of him, and the list keeps getting shorter and shorter. Khusnutdinov is a late July baby who worked his way from bottom six minutes with SKA's top MHL team to being a first line centre with some of the best 5v5 metrics of any draft eligible out of the MHL. He drives tremendous amounts of controlled offensive transitions, makes an astounding number of passes for a centre, and is a premier offensive conduit for his team. He caught my eye at the U18s last year, and I'm pretty sure his 2020 U18 would've made him a more common 1st round ranked player. He plays the way I want my centres to play. Speedy, engaged, aggressive, and some brilliant skill at times. I think he's a player you bet on. A player you let develop and get stronger over time. He's got the skating, the skill, the smarts, and the motor to put together an excellent NHL career at both ends of the ice.
I've seen more and more of the light on Jake Sanderson, but he's only ranked here because I do think it's rare to find defenders as well refined in defensive transitions as Sanderson. At time of writing, he breaks up defensive transitions 74% of the time when he gets involved. That is simply outstanding. The next highest metric in a decent sample is Emil Andrae's 70%, but it's a very small list after that. I still question how valuable that skill will be over time as the game speeds up, but Sanderson's offensive game is noteworthy as well, with a higher share of shot attempts coming from dangerous areas than Alexander Holtz, and more dangerous pass attempts per 60 5v5 minutes than Dylan Holloway. The question will be "what am I passing on if he's my guy?" The answer could be wildly different if you're looking at him 15th overall, or 5th.
Seth Jarvis in my data is a no-nonsense offensive dynamo. Shot attempts, dangerous passing, everything. He's out there focused on doing things that lead to offense. I'm not sure he's got enough defensively to be reliable, and I don't buy that he's as good as he was down the stretch, but a really intelligent offensive winger is never a bad swing to take.
This range has a lot of guys who show huge talent in flashes to my eye, almost from top to bottom. I still believe that there's a chance William Wallinder is the most electrifying defender to come out of this draft at the end of the day. He has major issues, but his pros of age, size, skating and skill are just such a great package to build on over time.
The guys I have ranked highest relative to average rankings seem to be somewhat undersized scoring wingers, who are often the guys who slip too far in the draft. It seems like I'm the biggest Daniil Gushchin, Alexander Pashin, Ozzy Wiesblatt, and Lukas Reichel fan out there.
I love Gushchin's all around offensive game when he's really going. He needs to get stronger on his feet, but his skill can humiliate opponents, and he drives dangerous shooting and passing better than almost everyone I've tracked thus far.
Pashin is a player that I fully admit is a risk. I just think he's a perfect example of an undersized player that overcomes their lack of size. He's fast, extremely skilled, moves pucks up the ice with control, and when things go wrong, I can't help but think more training and reps on the ice will help him over time. Bobbling pucks and being too patient are things you can coach and train him through. I'm willing to bet on his feet, hands and brain to turn him into an effective scoring winger at some point.
Wiesblatt is someone I went into tracking expecting to dislike, but I've only liked him more and more. At time of writing, he's controlled over 60% of the dangerous shot attempts on the ice, and every single shot attempt he has taken has been dangerous. 2/3 of them are taken from the slot area. In fact, he's had 9.3 high danger attempts per 60 minutes in my work. Lukas Reichel is the only other player over 8 in my tracking.
Speaking of Lukas Reichel, if he's a guy you can land in the 2nd, he could be an excellent complimentary scorer down the road. He's very smart away from the puck finding open space offensively and getting in position to register dangerous attempts. He isn't a particularly complex player, but he puts himself in a position to land points very well. I think there are flashes of a good transition player, and he kept up with Tim Stützle in a number of metrics, but when push comes to shove, he's doing a lot of very notable things against men.
Jean-Luc Foudy is in here at 31. He does so much on paper so well. In terms of controlling pucks up the ice with his own stick, I don't believe there's a better player available. Cole Perfetti generated about the same controlled offensive transitions per 60 minutes at 5v5, but Foudy generated many through his feet, while Perfetti used teammates very effectively and passed the puck far more often. Foudy is a risk, mostly due to his tendency to hang onto pucks forever, and his defensive play isn't great, but the guy was borderline untouchable at times in the offensive zone, and sent passes to dangerous areas over 19% more than any other CHL player I've tracked. If he can hold onto the puck to the point of frustration, but also sends a pass to the slot every three minutes of 5v5 ice time, completes passes over 75% of the time, and moves pucks as efficiently as anyone in the draft, then who's at fault for his lack of production? His profile is one I'd bet on after two years in the CHL with plenty of chances to get more experience.

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

This is where the real blenderization begins. I think this range of the draft is unbearably even. Names like Sam Colangelo, Braden Schneider, and Anton Johannesson could very easily be argued as the first names off the board on Day 2, or names that see themselves drop to round 3 in my view.
The more I see of Jérémie Poirier, the less I like. I feel as though his game took a step back over the season. He skates himself into trouble, his skating up the ice can be clunky, and his defensive game can be downright abysmal, but there's plenty of skill and mobility to bet on. He doesn't have the data that indicates he's extremely undervalued or likely to regress positively in my work, but what he does very well is very apparent. I just get the feeling he's going to be a tough, tough defenseman to develop into what he could be.
I'm a huge, huge fan of Joni Jurmo. He caught my attention early for his fast, skilled and aggressive offensive style, and while he has downsides to his game, he's a player that I would absolutely love to have as a power play quarterback with great 5v5 instincts with the puck. He might be one of the best pure skaters among all defensemen this year, but he has work to do, especially in his own end. I'm excited to see him with JYP next season, and you should be too. He's another player I'm pretty sure would've made a name for himself at the U18s.
Brett Berard might be one of the most quietly effective players in the draft. He's very close to being the "Mr. Scouch-a-lytics" for 2020. He controls 70% of the high danger chances on the ice. He moves pucks up the ice with control 80% of the time. He has 44 controlled offensive defensive blueline transitions/60 at 5v5. That beats everyone so far by 31%. He isn't a fast player, but he plays smart, plays hard, and pushes play positively.
Samuel Knazko is a guy I've been a fan of all year. He's a very modern brand of defender. Highly active along offensive bluelines but has great mobility to cover his tracks. He's one of three players over 100 pass attempts/60 minutes at 5v5, and shuts down defensive transitions at around the 70% rate. He's another case of players who might have a certain narrative regarding aggression and risk, but in reality, is not much riskier than defensemen ranked much higher. He's a creative passer that absolutely needs work in his own end, but he is a defender who will defend by preventing the opponent from getting to the DZ in the first place.
Speaking of players who might not line up with a narrative, I wasn't a huge Braden Schneider fan in viewings, and the data isn't a whole lot better. He faces the 4th most shot attempts of any player I've tracked thus far, but thankfully the majority are low danger attempts. His high danger shot rate against is very low, but moving pucks up the ice with control is a difficulty relative to this cohort at 53%. Sanderson, Drysdale, Jurmo, Knazko, and Johannesson are all defenders ranked to this point that are over 66.7. He's just a guy that I think will get picked well before I'm prepared to do so.
It's impossible to talk about Braden Schneider without looking at Kaiden Guhle. I've warmed up to him in a sense, at least moreso than Schneider, but his rate of controlled offensive transitions is under 50% at present time, which is far from ideal, but his skating and defensive game feel more likely to translate without issue.
Anton Johannesson will be a fascinating player to keep an eye on going into and coming out of the draft. He's fought injuries over the last two seasons, but I'm of the belief that if he were healthy all season, and just a bit taller, we'd be looking at him in the early 2nd, and potentially the 1st round. He's small, but shifty and mobile. He isn't the fastest defender you'll see, but he's one of the most effective puck movers I've tracked. He completes more passes per 60 minutes than anyone else attempts. He has more dangerous pass attempts per 60 minutes than Marco Rossi, Alexis Lafrenière, and Kasper Simontaival. No other defenseman is even close.
Brandon Coe played on an awful team, but I saw him show exceptional skill for a big winger with solid skating on his edges. He's on my list to track, but I've really liked what I've seen.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov is in here, and I still believe people aren't seeing the forest through the trees. He started as a bottom six forward with Sibir after turning 17 in July, and had one of the best draft eligible years in the MHL. He only got better and better as the year went on, and his skating, shot selection, and creativity lead me to believe that patience will be rewarded if he's your guy. A real long term project that I'm sticking my neck out for, but I really love the potential he brings.

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

This was a tough tier. A lot of these guys I see flashes of, and many are players whose data I've gathered and tracked haven't met expectations.
Everyone loves Antonio Stranges skill, and granted, the data I've tracked is very good, but I'm really unsure that there's going to be a great professional player here. His skating can be questionable, he isn't extremely active away from the puck, and I just get the feeling that his junior career could be excellent, but projecting his game is difficult.
Martin Chromiak is a guy I was excited to track when seeing how his data translated to Kingston, but I really question where his game will go over time. He's a solid option to flow pucks through in offensive transitions, and he can be a dangerous player in the offensive zone, but his skating isn't great, he misses a ton of his passes, and creates far too many uncontrolled offensive transitions for my liking. I think he'll get picked before I'm ready, but in this range he could potentially be a good role player as a catch and pass player who trails an offensive rush looking to make a play at the last second.
Daniel Torgersson is very much in the same boat. Decent skill for a big winger, but again, another role player at the end of the day. If it's me, I get Torgersson to the net away from the puck, keep finding open space, create screens, and use his skill in tight to either slap rebounds in the net or get pucks to open ice in the dangerous areas.
Eamon Powell and Brock Faber are lower ceiling players to me, but with Powell's intelligence and skill, and Faber's skating and reach, both could be interesting long term bets.
Benjamin Baumgartner is legit, I think. He took massive steps this year since I peeked at him with Austria's U20 team. He plays ~10 5v5 minutes a game, on par with other tracked players in men's leagues, but was 6th in forward scoring, and my tracked data indicates a rock solid two-way centre, and at time of writing, he leads men's league players I've tracked in offensive threat, driven mostly by an outstanding 15 dangerous pass attempts/60.
I just really like Zayde Wisdom. He exudes work ethic with good skill. I found him to be a major, major reason Martin Chromiak looked so good paired with Shane Wright. That unit really looked like they clicked right away, and Wisdom was a huge part in that.
Guys like Cardwell, Svejkovsky, Francis, and Mäenpää are big, big swings on skill. Mäenpää is small, and looks/plays like it. It's an issue for sure, but he's extremely quick, extremely agile, and somehow still manages to get 43% of his shot attempts from high danger areas. Only Benjamin Baumgartner and Ozzy Wiesblatt surpass those metrics with 44% and 66.7%(!) respectively.
I really like Marko Stacha. Not sure exactly why, and I need to track some data, but I liked him at the World Juniors, and I've really liked him playing against men in Slovakia. He's a good skater with a solid defensive brain and offensive flashes of skill.
Dylan Peterson is a tremendous player to watch, but he's almost all tools right now. I find it hard to nail down exactly what kind of player he's going to be. His skill and skating for such a big forward is really desirable, but he had trouble in his own end this year, and I found many plays to die on his stick in the offensive zone with a lack of awareness, adaptability, and dynamic ability to his game.

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

Pavel Tyutnev barely plays, but his results when he plays can be excellent. He's resilient with the puck, creative offensively, completes over 80% of his passes, and takes 40% of his shot attempts from high danger. If he's available at pick 217, you could do much worse.
Trineyev and Zlodeyev are guys I've only recently begun to dig into, but with Trineyev's combination of skating and size, and Zlodeyev's creativity and quarterback potential, I've been a fan.
Wyatt Kaiser can skate. If you want to bet on skating, he's a great option. Same goes for Ronan Seeley.
Alexander Nikishin had decent flashes, but I really do not know why he played so much in the KHL this year. He seemed overwhelmed with the pace of play, but his hands and physical ability was fun, I guess.
Everyone has been asking me if Cale Makar 2.0 is Michael Benning. I'm about 99.9% sure he is not. I haven't enjoyed the AJHL as a whole, and Sherwood Park seemed like a team that egged the opponent into 4 on 4 situations through penalty shenanigans, where Benning would send stretch passes to Carter Savoie at the offensive blueline, and would score one of their 6 goals of the night. Of course I'm oversimplifying, but this has happened in many of the games I've tracked and watched, and I'm really not sure about either one of those players, doubly so after the World Junior A Challenge.
Victor Mancini is a kid I want to meet and get to know. The decision to skip on the USHL and live in Gothenburg to play with Frölunda as a 17 year old is a very mature decision to me. I've read that he's only looking for the best possible path for him, and he picked a good one. It's unconventional, but I believe it's a good thing. He shuts down 70% of transitions coming his way, maintains control in 70% of offensive transitions, and while he has some mobility concerns defensively, he's a guy I think you could buy low on and let play in college with a modern program like Omaha's.

The Watchlist

These are just fun players I've caught over the year that might be fun shots in the dark down the road.
NOTE: I've edited this list on June 19th to remove Matvei Bannikov and Aleksei Sinkkonen. I really like the potential of both players, but I realized they may be more "probably undrafted but they're on the list to keep an eye on next year", rather than "late round actual potential swings". They've been replaced with Karri Aho and Albert Lyckåsen.
I'm a believer in Brady Burns and especially Josh Lawrence. If Lawrence's hands can catch up to his feet, he could be quite a player. He's quick, works hard, and is aggressive away from the puck. Similar to Tyutnev, you could do worse at pick 217. Same goes for Alex Gaffney, while we're at it.
I don't know why Landon Slaggert isn't scoring more, but he's a guy I constantly notice on the NTDP when my tracked player is off the ice. There's skill there, he's a June baby, and he plays big. I usually let the data do the talking, but he's a guy I've liked this year.
Mitchell Smith you say? Well... He's one of the most aggressive offensive defensemen I've ever seen play the game. He has the most individual high/medium danger shot attempts per 60 of any defenseman I've tracked with 5.17, beating Ryan O'Rourke's 4.99. His skating is fine, and while his aggression can lead to odd man rushes against, he has faced the third least shot attempts against of the defenders I've tracked this year. He may be Justin Bergeron 2.0, but he's most definitely fun to watch and has decent results to go with it.
Vladimir Mashkov is the king of "doing nothing but creating chances". 18.1 dangerous pass attempts/60 is second only to Jean-Luc Foudy's 21.2, and he does it while playing highly limited minutes on a good Omsk roster. Outside of that, I like his edges and mobility, but he's as much of a project as you'll find.
Yes, Shakir is in here. He's almost a meme at this point, but I see him show nice tools with his feet and hands, but that's about it. His decisionmaking and defensive awareness is simply not good enough, and at the moment, it completely outweighs whatever tools he displays. If an NHL team wants to swing on him in the 1st round, so be it, but he relinquishes zone transitions extremely poorly, and hands possession over with ease. These are things I do not want my defensemen to be doing, regardless of how good their feet and hands are.
Carter Savoie is only on here because of what happens when he gets his head in the game. I've rarely caught him backchecking, let alone entering the defensive zone, and while his shot and skill is a ton of fun at it's best, I just don't think this is a player I'm jumping at the chance to add to my pipeline. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not the only one.
Maxim Musorov continues to fly under the radar due to him playing in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, but I've really liked his game. He's slippery, quick, and I thought he looked really good leading Kazakhstan's world junior team.
Yegor Suchkov is one of the younger re-entries out there, but I love how much fun he is to watch. He's small, but skilled and agile, and managed to show well at the VHL level.
Everyone loves Dmitri Sheshin, and while I'm still skeptical of his pro upside, he should probably have been drafted last year, and his skill is undeniable.
I'm just really liked watching Mateusz Szurowski, and Ivan Zivlak. They're interesting long term projects with measured success in various levels. Albert Lyckåsen is an aggressive offensive defender I've loved for his attacking mentality and how exciting his skating can be, especially in the offensive zone.

Final Notes

That's it. That's the list. I want to note that there's been some discussion recently surrounding length of lists and their usefulness. I've been told that many scouts and teams have lists as small as half the length as mine. I'm still confident in the overall list of players I have ranked, but I completely understand the point of view. My rankings are split into tiers to group players together based on a general feel for talent, and I fully admit that past a certain point, you have to shrug and take your best swing. It's pretty apparent that I value pure, raw talent, regardless of risk. Every pick carries risk, but believing in every player you pick, properly identifying their strengths and weaknesses, and putting them on an achievable trajectory to NHL success is the part that can separate a steal from just another 5th round pick. Give me four lines that can go out, generate offense, suppress defense, and score goals. I don't care as much about how the results are generated, but I do care that the players can do all of those things, especially at 5v5. Even if they have that profile at a lower level, isolating how they're generating those results, and trying to project them is vital to how I value a player. Players have some leeway in this area, but this is the whole reason I evaluate the way that I do. Results based data leads to interesting case studies, data tracking isolates what is happening when the player is playing, and video indicates what might or might not be projectable or going right or wrong.

All this being said, if you have any questions about anything, please don't hesitate to reach out on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube or email. There is a piece coming somewhat soon exploring my general philosophy, so stay tuned for that! More Scouching Reports are on the way as well.

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Be well and stay safe.
- Will

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