I won't spend too much time here, as you can watch the full video above to see my thoughts on these picks and you're probably here from that video anyway, but first off, congratulations to the Colorado Avalanche for winning the Stanley Cup! Of course, as soon as this video was shot and edited, the Kevin Fiala trade shook things up a bit, but if you'd like to watch an out of date video going over the first round, much of the same thoughts are in there, and I commend your commitment!

If this is your first time reading one of my mock drafts, I essentially do two drafts at once. Once for what I believe the team could  be thinking based on history and public info, and again for what I'd do if I were that team, trying to take into account what their development systems resonate best with from an outside perspective. I'll end the preamble there, and I hope you enjoy!

This one is pretty easy. Wright is a blank slate who I believe was working on rounding out his offensive game a bit this year and relying less on shooting and scoring. His touch and vision is excellent, even if his pace isn't great. He works around oncoming pressure well and finds seams and lanes extremely well. Could I take Cooley here? I think so, but he also comes with strengths and weaknesses that put him ever so slightly behind of the potential Wright brings. It's possible that in 10 years there are other players that could claim to be the "best player in the 2022 draft", but Wright is a strong foundational player who can glue a line together well and drive good possession with great offensive upside.

Fans will not stop commenting and telling me that Slafkovsky is the only option. They did this last year with Luke Hughes and got their wish. This year if they get their wish again, I would not be surprised, even if he isn't the best player available on my board. He's got great possession skill and a tremendous physical package to protect pucks with, I just worry about his lack of high end skill and agility at full pace limiting his offensive upside, but I can't say he couldn't develop into the best player to come out of this draft.

In terms of players who may be the most productive coming out of this draft though, Logan Cooley could add even more offensive punch and skill to a Devils team that has quite a bit. You can never have too much scoring, and you can work around the problem of "too much offense" and land more physical/powerful players through other means than the 2nd pick in the draft. Personally, I go Cooley and look elsewhere to fill current needs, but Slafkovsky would be perfectly acceptable if that's the direction they go.

I really hope Arizona takes care of Cooley if they go in his direction. I was a bit underwhelmed with their draft class last year, and Cooley won't fix everything there, but he sure would help. He's creative, and an offensive powerhouse. He's a ton of fun to watch and with a player like Dylan Guenther ideally creating some offense in the near future, Cooley would be more of an offensive catalyst that could help get the Coyotes back to prominence.

On the other hand, they have Victor Soderstrom and... Janis Moser on the back end? Nemec would be an excellent puck transporter with offensive tools that could catalyze the Coyotes from the blueline like so many good NHL teams are deploying their defensemen these days.

Seattle really only has Matty Beniers and that's about it, so pretty much anything goes at the high end here. Around here is where I start thinking about the trade market, but Nemec is a high end defender to add with the high end forward prospect they landed in Beniers. My brain took Lambert here, just because the idea of Lambert behind Beniers one day sounds like a wonderful 1/2 punch to work with, but Nemec could be an offensive leaning puck transporter that they could build around. There are just a ton of options for Seattle considering their pipeline is only a year old. I'd consider pick volume if I were them and think about trading down, but any number of players could be a fit here, even if Nemec may not quite line up with what their current defense corps looks like.

The Flyers are undergoing some changes at the top, and from my perspective, they've been trying to recapture that signature Flyers brand on the ice that they feel they strayed from in the modern era. If what Chuck Fletcher is looking for is more physical, punishing and annoying players, either of these names would make sense. I doubt Slafkovsky is available here but I can't imagine him not being the no-nonsense pick here for the reasons noted above, and the potential upside he carries. Jiricek carries more risk. He didn't quite have the same mobility and comfort as a player coming back from injury with the Czech national team, but his physical play, defensive potential, and offensive tools are impossible to ignore. He can shake off defenders from the blueline, and with a gear of explosiveness coming off his inside edges pushing laterally, he could leave players behind and push pucks deeper into dangerous areas himself. I like Jiricek, but he carries some risk and his results in my 6-game sample were pretty poor in numerous areas in a men's league in Czechia. There's upside though, and Philadelphia might be the right destination to make him the mean, 200-foot defender he could become.

On one hand, Columbus can go full send on their early draft picks. Texier, Chinakhov, even Liam Foudy and Kent Johnson were in some way surprising, but are high skill and upside players. Matthew Savoie certainly falls into that category. He's a player with one major troubling weakness regarding his ability to generate separation through speed or skill. Savoie can score, he can set up a play, and drove excellent offensive metrics in my work, but struggled to be a constant puck transporter and was countered in transition a little too easily too often in my view. Don't let people tell you he doesn't try and isn't determined though, he's a tough one to knock off the puck getting low to the ice and battling defenders, and had a high level of defensive transition involvement with a quick stick and great hands to strip pucks.

Jiricek is something different. He brings a tenacious anger to the defensive position that Columbus has lacked somewhat and could maybe use in the NHL one day. He's got an offensive side to him, they reached into the Czech pool last year with Stanislav Svozil, and he could round out a curious group of defenders Columbus has amassed over the last few years.

Does anyone have a 50-sided die? Anyone? Honestly nothing would surprise me with the Ottawa Senators at this point. I have no idea where they're headed, but you can certainly zero in on players that Ottawa clearly prefers. They have the have size, they have to have a some kind of physical element to their game. They often have a relatively short runway to the NHL. Is this still going to be the case? I don't know, but that's why I love finding out what the Senators are up to. Honestly, Cutter Gauthier may check those boxes for Ottawa, I'm just not sure he checks them all right now. He's got the size, Ottawa is trying to get Tim Stutzle comfortable and centre and rumour is that Gauthier is thought of as a centre eventually, and while I think he lacks a physical edge, with his range and size, who says that isn't possible? I have Gauthier ranked later, but if things break right, he certainly brings one of the better combinations of size, skill and finishing ability in the draft.

Nazar checks all of those boxes right now, he just doesn't have the size. I'd love to see Frank Nazar flying up the ice in a Senators uniform and grinding out scoring chances. He isn't quite as skilled or aggressive off-puck as some in this range, but he's one of the more determined and effective offensive zone player available at this point along with someone like Liam Ohgren. I have come and gone with Nazar over the year, but I really liked his straight line speed with the puck and ability to play in dangerous areas in different ways.

Look up and replace "Senators" with "Red Wings". I've learned to not doubt Steve Yzerman, so Steve, go out and do your thing, but Nazar would fill and reinforce a bit of a need in Detroit's pipeline down the middle of the ice with potential to play on the wing if things don't work out at centre. He's a good puck transporter, could improve defensively, but all in all I think the Red Wings could do much worse than jump on the aggressive and hard-working forward from the NTDP.

In my mind, Lekkerimaki is going a little high relative to my board, but Detroit has guys like Theodor Niederbach in the system who could really benefit from a guy like Lekkerimaki if they can get a connection going. He's one of the best finishers in the draft with a great release on his wrist shot and strong pre-shot skill. He settled into his comfortable pace in the SHL over time and got more efficient even if he wasn't often a primary target. He may need a couple lead actors on his line to help him transporting the puck and help him receive pucks in the offensive zone, but he could be a real offensive weapon.

​Buffalo has a very small sample with the new regime in charge, but they do seem to lean towards well-rounded players with a bit of a physical edge to them, even if they draft from a little further down my board, and I think it could make Kemell an interesting target for the Sabres to land. He's a goal scorer that may need to pick his shots a bit better and make better reads of the offensive zone with the puck, but playing in the Liiga isn't always easy for a junior aged player. He has a physical side to him that I caught here and there that I think fits with what they're looking for.

Or, they could go with Matthew Savoie, who I think is just the highest upside pick you could make here at 9th overall. The skill and lightning quick agility coupled with determination and dual-threat offense would be just a great piece to add to the stable. There isn't much more than that beyond what I've written above. Need a guy to get pucks to Jack Quinn? Here's an option, and he can score too which is kinda neat.

Anaheim likes to draft players who produce and show up well in models, I think. Lekkerimaki's SHL production and U18 would certainly make models go 'bing' and flag him as an option. Trust me, I've seen the models make that noise. Think about this: Trevor Zegras passing the puck to Jonathan Lekkerimaki. Over and over. It'd be pretty awesome I think. My brain went a different direction and thought about a well rounded player with both offensive talents and physical intensity that also fills a type of player that Anaheim has dressed and drafted over the last few years. Ohgren is an active, hard-working player with a strong shot from open ice and looking quite comfortable in a 200-foot energy winger role in the SHL with flashes of skill and physical play. I think Ohgren could be a heck of a well rounded play driver at the next level, even if he isn't scoring tremendous amounts.

I'm manifesting Lambert to San Jose real hard. I think he fits exactly what they've drafted and amassed over the years. Upside, skill, pace, and setting aside potential intangible issues that others may devalue a player with. Lambert would bring a great puck transporter up the middle that the Sharks somewhat lack in their pipeline with huge upside. Mesar would be a nice backup considering Lambert is gone at this point. The skating and pace check similar boxes, and you can work on his finishing ability over time. He's a smart offensive player that I've enjoyed watching with potential up the middle or on the wing, and while it may be a bit of a reach at 11, the upside is there.

As I said earlier, Columbus is not afraid of drafting for skill and upside, and Howard brings that. He needs to development to make him a bit more efficient in stride and control pucks a bit better at a higher level of pace, but he's just so creative, agile and plays with great pace around the ice. Landing Savoie and Howard together brings two players with similar strengths and similar weaknesses offensively, but if things work out, they could be great producers for this team over time. On the other hand, I see better things out of Gleb Trikozov. Columbus shocked all of us, drafting Yegor Chinakhov in the first round in 2020, Trikozov is from the same program and there could be a connection there that surprises many once again. I'm a huge fan of Trikozov, and that isn't news to anyone. He's fast, skilled, creative, and shoots the puck better than many in this draft. He's a bit of a project but his upside is enormous.

The Islanders are a tough read in the draft, but Kasper seems like the kind of player they'd lean into. Not the player with the most pace, skill or agility, but he's smart, hard-working, and has some jam to his game that gives comfort that he'll be an NHL player. There are Islanders who have been with the team for quite a while with somewhat similar playing styles in Brock Nelson and Anders Lee, and there could be a nice connection there as mentors for the young Austrian. Not the most exciting or highest upside pick but he could be an impactful player for the Islanders down the line. On the other hand, Kemell feels like a nice boost in scoring that the Islanders haven't really had a ton of in the draft recently. Aatu Raty had a great year, and there are a few players the Islanders have drafted out of Finland recently, and with Kemell's side order of physical imposition, he could be a neat addition for the Islanders to add to their future.

The Jets have drafted some high upside, high risk defenders in the draft over the last few years to varying success, but if they'd like to continue with that trend, they could really dive in and pick Denton Mateychuk. He's a clever small area passer, knows when to move pucks and does so often, completing a high percentage of his attempts. He's skilled and quick, but I think he's going to really need to elevate his talent level to match the kind of confidence he shows at the WHL level right now. If it works, he could be a huge pickup, but if he doesn't come far enough, I think there's risk with this pick. In my world, Mintyukov could be an interesting choice that's somewhat up the same alley, but he brings a sense of deception and puck skill, as well as physical play that I don't see a ton of out of Mateychuk. Stepping up off the offensive blueline showed some of Mintyukov's most impressive moments, and with time and patience you could end up with a very well rounded 200-foot defender with good offensive transition tools.

It's a new era for the Vancouver Canucks, and I get the feeling Ohgren will bring a blend of modern skill and old school grind that could help build the Canucks in the future. Ohgren is a hard worker, physically involved, but also quick in a straight line, skilled and has a great ability to generate dangerous chances. He didn't look out of place in the SHL, and is a relatively simple player to project into a variety of NHL roles. Korchinski is the name on my list though, and while Vancouver has Quinn Hughes quarterbacking things predominantly, they do lack a bit of high end upside on the defensive end even if they've drafted some players I've liked over the last few years at that position. Korchinski is skilled, confident and mobile, and his shortcomings could be patched with his existing talent base in my view. His vision with the puck can be inconsistent on breakouts, but carrying pucks with confidence and deception was something I spotted with him quite a few times over the year. 

So the Sabres have Dahlin/Power on the back end already, but Korchinski brings even more in the way of defenders who can play with the puck and transport it around the ice. It's a modern approach to how to think of defenders but I think it could really boost the Sabres' future and solidify their defense group into one of the more interesting young corps in the league. In my world, however, I find that the Sabres could use a little more offensive oomph up front in their pipeline. Howard could be a great pull in this range with upside, and his ability is undeniable with the puck. He's unrefined and needs time to develop, but there's no reason to rush if you're the Sabres. His playmaking and chance generation off his own stick was among the best in my tracking, and while Isak Rosen is a neat offensive pickup, Howard adds further firepower that, similar to Korchinski, could help round out and solidify a strong forward group for the future Sabres.

Nashville is a tough one to read, but they haven't shied away from drafting Russians over the last few years and could be the ones to jump at the well rounded, smart, resilient winger out of Magnitogorsk. It may take time for him to come over, but the patience could be rewarded if Nashville is entering a period where a rebuild might be on the horizon. Even if that isn't the case, Yurov could provide a good boost down the line to a team trying to stay competitive. Geekie feels like a player Nashville seems to gravitate to up front. Yes, they have some skilled forwards but they seem to value a hard-nosed brand of player with power, and Conor Geekie fits that mould. He's a big of a project in terms of being a high end impact NHL player, but he should be a strong possession player that can play up the middle of the ice with good possession metrics. It may be a bit higher than I'd take him, but I think there's a good fit there and Nashville could turn him into an interesting 200-foot power centre.

Dallas loves to go full send with their picks and have been rewarded in the last few years with picking up Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven significantly later than they should've been available, along with taking the plunge on Wyatt Johnston who has just finished a remarkable OHL season. Pavel Mintyukov is more of the same, but more of the defensive variety, with strong puck skill and deception ability. While there's questionable defensive consistency, I've seen a lot of really impressive efficient defense out of him, and more time should help refine Mintuykov into an interesting addition to Dallas' group of young defenders.

... But what I wouldn't give for Dallas to look Lane Hutson's way. It's right up that truly full send alley, and would be a massive swing, but a really interesting one at that. He's shifty, skilled, creative and created offense down the stretch that rivalled some forwards I tracked this year. There's downside defensively and coaches will need to be willing to take the not-so-good in order to get the awesome bits, but I could see a Sam Girard-type dynamic defender with a few years of development in college working on his footwork, strength and power generation.

Not 20 minutes after writing this section, the Minnesota Wild acquired this pick and Brock Faber for Kevin Fiala from the LA Kings, so there goes that, and it occurred after the shooting of the video. Jiri Kulich could be a very interesting option for the Wild as he fits a type of player they seem to like that leads with a strong, hard-working 200-foot game with some finishing ability on top of the sundae. He'll be as good as he is strong, and I think slotting in behind names like Rossi and Khusnutdinov in the future up the middle wouldn't be the worst combination. The WHL is often a target for the Wild, and I could see them taking the Pickering Plunge, taking a chance on the giant, skilled and mobile defender out of Swift Current. He's raw, but with time he could be a huge add on Minnesota's defense, something they somewhat lack at the high end of their prospect pipeline.

At the tail end of the year, Snuggerud started to grow on me. Do I think he's worth drafting as high as I've seen him ranked? I'm not so sure. He lacks pace and escape speed, has issues stringing passes together and seeing the ice well, but in the offensive zone, his pre-shot skill and shot quality is really impressive, and he's capable of making plays in dangerous space as well. He's a determined player, and I feel like Washington would welcome his offensive tools and physical side. Washington does tend to draft a little bit off my board, and Snuggerud could make sense as a player they stash away who may not carry a ton of pace, but has really solid tools to work with. With Danila Yurov, I just think at 20 he's worth taking, and with Ovechkin, Samsonov, Kuznetsov there to help ease the transition, it could accelerate Yurov's willingness to come over from Russia. He's well rounded and brings a lot of interesting tools that could be a nice fit with Washington with potentially an accelerated pathway to the NHL.

The Penguins just feel like a natural fit for Conor Geekie. Somewhat well rounded with good small area skill at low pace and driving great results in my tracking, Geekie may have somewhat limited upside, but I don't think the Penguins minded having Jordan Staal up the middle for all those years, and I could see a similar role in the future for Geekie. With skill and agility development he could unlock something totally new in his game offensively, but even as he is now, he impressed me with his volume playmaking and raw power at the WHL level, so hopefully it all translates. If it's me, Jiri Kulich makes a lot of sense here for similar reasons. There's a refined hockey mind there, some better pure finishing talent, and with strength development over time he could round out to a really interesting utility forward to plug into a variety of scenarios.

Anaheim with Owen Pickering just feels right. He's raw, but has huge upside through his skill and mobility and the potential that more time could bring. He's fun to watch, and a little rough around the edges, but he fits what Anaheim seems to be interested in lately with production upside and clear upside even if there may be a bit of risk. On that note, Denton Mateychuk! I could easily see this being an option for them and I'd honestly consider Mateychuk if he were still available here. On my list, Liam Ohgren is a relatively safe but impressive all-around player, but Denton is riskier. If his style of play does project and the Ducks give him the freedom to play his style assuming his feet and hands improve as they need to, he could be a great asset to add and bring his unique brand of hockey to the NHL.

The Blues clearly like to draft for size and some kind of physical edge in many of their recent picks, and Nathan Gaucher just feels like a guy who could be a Blue. He's big, rangy, faster than you think in a straight line, physical, and has moments of simple but effective playmaking deep in the offensive zone. He may not have enormous upside, but I can easily see him as an NHL player. Cutter Gauthier almost definitely won't be available this late, but I'd happily take the big skilled finisher in this range. There's upside with development if he can build a bit more of a motor and improve his agility as I found him to be relatively low pace and more focused on sticking to the perimeter with the puck. Without the puck, however, he's a great player to work off of better possession players with a lovely scoring touch, and with his size and skill to work with, I feel like St. Louis is a great landing spot for this player.

I have a pretty strong gut feeling that Minnesota could draft the pure skill and offensive upside WHLer that may have issues translating to the NHL, but if he doesn't, look out. I love Firkus' release in a variety of areas of the ice, I love his intensity and pace, and while he's slight, that doesn't mean he'll stay that way. He's a really interesting offensive player that brings a bit of a different flavour than the more well-rounded and intense players they've drafted over the years under Judd Brackett. He could work off names like Rossi or Khusnutdinov in the future, and there's a connection there with Daemon Hunt coming from the same program in Moose Jaw. If it were up to me, I highly doubt Kasper is available here, but he seems like a perfect fit for what they're trying to get at. He's a physical, strong straight line player with solid finishing ability and a well-rounded positional mind that keeps things simple, but effective. His career could go a variety of ways but I could see him easily being a well rounded presence at centre or the wing that could slot into the middle of Minnesota's lineup behind some of the higher upside picks they've made over the last couple of years.

The Leafs pulled a rabbit out of their hat last year with Matthew Knies, and I don't think in my years of doing this work I've seen such a quick and immense turnaround in a player pre and post-draft. Do I think that's going to happen again? Probably not, but who knows what Dubas and crew have up their sleeve. I could easily see them draft a high upside offensive catalyst like Noah Ostlund, though. He had a great under-18 showcasing his speed, skill and agility with flashes of great finishing and playmaking creativity. I remember how quickly names like Nylander and Liljegren filled out and got stronger in Toronto's development system, and that's really the biggest area where Ostlund needs improvement. In my world though, I could see them sinking their claws into a skilled, creative defender in Seamus Casey. He certainly needs to improve on generating escape speed and relied significantly on passing to move pucks, which is fine, but adding more of a threatening ability to push play up the ice and quarterback a rush on his own could bring deception to his game that should bring improved opportunity for production. Toronto isn't afraid of players with a bit of a deficiency with their feet, and the potential for Casey could be huge, bringing an offensive presence to the blueline that they may be looking for once he leaves college.

It's Montreal's second pick of a draft where they're drafting about 46 times, so they can afford to cast a bit of a wide net. I'm huge on Filip Mesar's skating and 200-foot work rate, and I think he fits exactly what Montreal has said they're looking for. In this range, even if he ends up playing somewhere on Montreal's third line, that's a rock solid pick and I think he has the tools to get there. There's lots of opportunity to draft other brands of player, but Mesar's mobility, fluidity and application of those talents is high end in this slot.

Similarly, Jagger Firkus is a good alternative since Mesar is gone. Him and Shane Wright together sounds... well... kinda neat. Firkus has a lot of pace and skill in his game, and Wright should be able to find him around the ice extremely well. Firkus also should have no problem finding Wright around the ice to allow Wright to use his finishing ability a bit more than he was able to this year with Kingston. Firkus is dynamic, but needs to get strong. There wouldn't be much of a rush to put him on the Canadiens roster, but the patience and development could be significantly worth it.

As I've mentioned before, Arizona perplexes me, and they seem to prefer well-rounded players, or those who have the potential to be well-rounded. Nothing too insanely fancy, but nothing too detrimental. That's fine, but I think it limits the impact of their draft capital when that's a strategy they stick to so much under this regime. We'll see how they draft this year, but based on their 2021 strategy, Chesley makes sense, assuming he's available. I don't think he will be, but I make the rules here, and I think it could make sense for Arizona. He's got a ways to go, though. I see the flashes of skill and physical intensity out of Chesley, but his results this year were significantly worse than the other NTDP defenders I tracked, and I just think his upside is a little too limited for my liking. Others may disagree and say a well-rounded defensive player is a good pick here, even if he plays on your bottom pair and kills penalties, and that's true, but I still feel like Chesley's game has a bit of a runway ahead of him in order to be the type of player he's trying to be. Arizona has the luxury of time as it appears they're in no rush to compete, however, and there are flashes of something better in my viewings.

On the other hand, there's Sam Rinzel. I love this guy. He's 6'3", but I've seen him do spin-o-rama dekes to get around opponents in the offensive zone, push deep below the goal line to make plays, and shows tremendous range with his skating and reach. He's very undeveloped and inconsistent, but another year with Waterloo next year should do him wonders. The potential is as tall as Rinzel is, and I think the Coyotes could land a heck of an offensive defender here.

I have no idea what to think of Rutger McGroarty but there are definitely areas I like. He's one of the poorest skaters and lowest pace forwards likely to go in the first round, but his per-puck touch efficiency moving pucks, hitting targets and maintaining possession. He's an efficient if uninvolved player with raw firepower. His shot selection isn't great, largely due to an inability to push through pressure and evade defenders, but with time and patience, it could be worthwhile if he's paired with play drivers who carry a bit more pace.

Speaking of play drivers who carry more pace, Noah Ostlund would be a neat add to the Sabres here. Huge upside, and with Savoie and Howard already in their system during this draft, these three players give them huge playmaking and transition potential if the holes in their games can be patched up. Ostlund needs to get stronger and a little more involved without the puck, but he could be a heck of a glue player moving up the ice with many varieties of linemates.

The Oilers perplex me, but they seem to like well-rounded players with relatively safe projection to the NHL without really elite individual areas of play outside the top end of the draft. Tristan Luneau is a player I have ranked significantly lower than this, but I could see him filling some kind of NHL role on the defensive side of the game. There's a bit of skill and deception there, a solid baseline skating level in terms of mobility and puck control, but his defensive game remains unrefined and he'll need to cultivate some mass in order to hit his potential. It may be limited, but the Oilers may be looking for that out of their first round pick, and a capable and versatile if unspectacular defender at 29th overall is a solid draft pick looking back.

If they wanted to get a bit spicier, they do draft from the NCAA world here and there, and Jack Hughes could make a lot of sense here. He's got pace and skill, but I don't think he's quite packaged it together yet at Northeastern University. He had issues generating offensive chances at 5v5 but strength could help him resist pressure a bit better to gain space a bit more effectively. He could slot in up the middle or down the wing for Edmonton and I think there's upside here.

Winnipeg is undergoing some significant changes, but I get the feeling the big centre out of the GTA could make a lot of sense. Del Bel Belluz is perplexing. He drove great shot attempt differentials, but rarely was a factor in that at either end, nor was he often a factor in transition, but I like the momentum he carries and the flashes of skill I've seen out of him. I can easily see why some more visual-based folks have him higher than teammate Owen Beck, where some more analytical minds have it the other way around. Del Bel Belluz in isolated moments has shown great talent, but generating speed quicker and adding a side of agility for a big guy could unlock a ton of offensive potential out of him. I'm not sure what the timeline is on him, and I think there's a low floor here, but if it pays off, it could be a great add.

I'm going full send here. Winnipeg isn't afraid of smaller, more dynamic defenders, they just have to understand that they have to play their bright young players at some point. Grudinin is extremely dynamic and creative, even though his point totals don't jump out at you. He can be stashed away for years without issue, and I think the patience will pay off. He's a ton of fun to watch, stuck out very clearly to me at the World Juniors, and I can't wait to see where his career takes him, assuming he's able to come over one day.

Lian Bichsel? Meet Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev. Learn everything you can from these folks. There, easy. The Lightning love to draft rangy players with size and intensity, and Bichsel certainly brings that to the table. He's the consolation prize if you're looking at a player like Jiricek. I've seen him play very well in some viewings, and not so well in others, but he settled in well as the season wore on. He's a physical player with a bit of skill to him, and with time and more SHL experience, he could be a nice pickup, even if there's low upside. I could see a defensive middle pair guy though with enough skill to make a good impact on the game.

Or, Tampa could take a huge gamble on Ivan Miroshnichenko. You just know that if they do, it's going to work out, because of course it would. I felt he played better this year than some seemed to think, but the cancer diagnosis is a huge deal. He's reportedly in remission, and in my view for Tampa, they may as well dive in and take the risk. If it works, they add a very major power winger with a heck of a shot and some good flashes of skill and straight line pace. If it doesn't, the two-time cup champions took a chance and missed. You still have the cups, and not many other players at this point carry the same kind of upside.

I like Owen Beck for what he is. Smart, dependable and effective. Strong strides generate strong straight line speed and he can simply get the job done while driving great results in my tracking. I still think there's a bit of limited NHL upside and the likelihood of highly outperforming his slot in this range seems a little low to me, but he could be a nice complimentary smart, two-way centre to play down the lineup supporting names like Cooley and *insert very highly rated 2023 first round pick*. He was significantly ahead of the pack in the faceoff circle, which is also neat and can come in handy, so there's that.

Adam Sykora on the other hand just feels like a player Arizona will make a bit of a reach on in order to land him before someone else does, even if Arizona has a ton of picks in this range. Sykora works hard, is very young for the draft, shows flashes of skill and was the youngest player to score at the World Championships this year, which is kinda neat. I'm not sure what kind of upside we're looking at, but coaches should love this guy with how he generates his results.

And there you have it! I'm sure you're all satisfied with the fake ordering of drafted players where I think they could go, and where I'd personally lean if I could make all these picks myself. I'm personally excited to be extremely wrong. I hope you have a lovely final week before the draft, I hope all your draft-related dreams come true and I hope you all are well. It's been a heck of a year and be sure to tune into the Scouching Draft-a-Thon on July 8, 2022. You can set your reminders here.

Hello once again! Welcome to the final rankings here at Scouching.ca. It's been a very interesting cohort of athletes to watch for a variety of reasons. While I don't believe the highest of high picks are going to completely transform a team's trajectory, they should be very valuable core members of any NHL team, with some having flashes of potential to be something more in certain areas of the game. While some may take that and label the draft as "weak", one thing I've learned over the years is to think of the draft as analyzing trends in the financial markets. Everything comes down to probability, and like in financial markets, there can be a lot of uncertainty that can affect the future of a security or commodity. In this year's NHL Draft, I think that level of uncertainty begins sooner than a few previous drafts I've analyzed, but there are a solid group of players in my top two rounds that bring potential to bring a positive impact to the NHL with time, patience, development and trust. Some have more to work on with some risk, some are more easier to project into an NHL role down the lineup at worst. Could we look back on this draft and see it as "weak"? I think it's possible, but not at all a certainty. I think certain teams could capitalize on certain inefficiencies that remain in the draft process and get some great value through strong development and accurate evaluation of strengths and weaknesses and this class could start to look a bit deeper than we think. I'd also think that these riskier probabilities stretch higher into the draft than we're used to, and some players drafted quite high may not carry much more if any value than some players cherry-picked at the tail end of the first round or even into the second.

In any case, this has been a very interesting year to add to my own resume of work to reflect on. I'm almost certainly going to be inaccurate when looking back in five years, and it's always important to constantly self-reflect and improve on processes and how to weigh certain areas of what I see on the ice and in the data. My core philosophy hasn't really changed all that much. I don't mind taking on more risk if it means the player in question could bring skills that make them talents you wish you had more of at the NHL level. I will always value players with higher end individual traits that could slot into a clear NHL role with possible success over players that are competent all-around if not exciting. Some may disagree and go for "safety" over risk, but that's the beauty of evaluating talent in a professional sports environment. There are many ways to be successful, it's just a matter of having a strong organizational philosophy that you trust can bring you success over the long term. In terms of the types of players I gravitate to, I've always held that speed, skill, pace and the ability to problem solve and make plays in close quarters are major factors that can make a player impactful at the NHL level. Biometric factors and other intangible factors carry a certain level of weight with me, but I always go back to the end results and the quality of play coming from a player. If the results are great but the players lack that speed, skill, pace and problem solving ability that I look for, that player is devalued, especially if they're undersized on top of it all. If they are struggling to produce those results on the scoresheet but carry those traits, they may be worth nurturing and working with over a long period to try to get that puck to go in the net more often than it does, and in my experience, betting on those traits leads to generally greater success, especially outside of the early rounds of the draft.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

​With that, please enjoy the final 2022 rankings, and see you for the 2022 Scouching Draft-A-Thon on July 8, 2022, starting a half hour before the 2nd round begins, which will be some unconfirmed time on the morning of that day. See you there!

And so we've reached the conclusion of my pre-draft coverage here at Scouching for 2022. Thank you so much for all of your time this year. It's an interesting crop of players that I'll be very interested to reflect on in a few years. There's some risk, but upside to be had. There are lots of directions a team could go, but there's good potential with many in this group.

If you'd like a playlist of all of my Scouching Reports over the years, click here.

Be sure to not miss the Scouching Draft-a-Thon on July 8, 2022, starting a half hour before Round 2 begins at a time yet to be confirmed. Set your reminders here!