Scouching's Final 2020 NHL Draft Ranking

Hello again. This has been a strange summer, no? Yes, it has. Anyway, welcome to the actual final ranking for the 2020 Draft. I've had a change of philosophy to remove some players where I don't feel that I could make a reasonable pitch for them to be drafted. I believe you have to be passionate and believe in every kid you draft, and have fundamental strengths you can reinforce in them and accept that there are weaknesses in every player that have to be managed and improved accordingly to maximize overall impact on the ice. Ranking players where I'm not sure of their likely prospects in the NHL just feels... greasy.

So, 96 players ranked this time around with a watchlist of curious cases to either keep an eye on if undrafted, or to take a swing on in the late rounds. My overall read on this year is overall quite positive. I think there are some exceptional talents available at the top, with a large number of potentially useful core contributors, with a ton of really interesting skilled swings to be taken through the 2nd round. I've really been impressed with the European crop of talent this year especially, and I'm excited to track their careers as they develop.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team. ​

​So, I won't bore you further. Check out the full rankings below!

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The Watchlist

• Daniel Ljungman was a guy who I've been keeping tabs on a bit, and I really like how he can navigate through the neutral zone and attack the net. I think he's a long term project, but he's hit the ground running this year.
• Mitchell Miller is on the watchlist. If he falls endlessly due to off ice issues, he could be a guy you look at late, but those issues are troublesome in the least and you'll really have to do your homework. He's a well-rounded, explosive defenseman, but I can't recall a draft prospect ever came with the documented legal issues that Miller does.
• Ty Jackson is a fun USHL re-entry. Just 13 days older than Jack Quinn but he's Small, but shifty, quick, and makes a creative team with his twin brother Dylan. He's an exciting player, and will certainly have my eye on him at Northeastern.
• Josh Lawrence is a hard-working quick centre who seems to have a game that's 85% of the way to being great. He puts in the work on his feet at both ends, he can use crossovers and power his way into the neutral zone to facilitate transitions, but controlling pucks and working with his hands and feet in tandem at a high pace needs to come a ways. I think he's a fun long term bet, similar to Xavier Simoneau last season.
• Danil Alalykin is just a ton of fun to watch. Crafy with his hands under high pressure, excellent goal scoring ability in tight, and likely a member of his KHL team when he returns from injury.
• I'll totally credit David St. Louis over at EliteProspects for bringing up Christopher Merisier-Ortiz. He's right up my alley for skilled and agile offensive defenders. His data looked good last year, he kept it up this year, and I could easily use a later pick on him.
• People seem to pick up NTDP guys they just really like for various reasons, and mine is Landon Slaggert. He seems bigger than his listed size and moves with a lot of power around the ice. Really raw and had some trouble attacking the net and driving offense, but I liked his transition game and footwork moving offensively with the puck.

Tier 8 - The Curious Cases

• I just really like Benjamin Baumgartner. He's so much fun with his agility, offensive positioning, and aggression with the puck. He played in the NLA, and was one of the best generators of high danger shot attempts in all my tracking this year.
• Dylan Peterson is similar to Landon Slaggert mentioned earlier. Their ability in transition remind me of John Beecher, but putting offense together is an issue for both. Peterson has some great moments combining his size, crossovers, and his puck protection skill, but doesn't seem to cook much of a dinner with it. Great raw tools and a great project, so I could see him going much earlier.
• Lukas Svejkovsky is a guy I really believe in. Good enough skater, fun skill at a variety of paces, drove the 5th most individual high danger shot attempts in my sample, with the 13th most dangerous pass attempts/60. More offensive leaning, but there's potential, I think.
• Juuso Mäenpää is a firecracker. Skilled as it gets, can be highly creative in the offensive zone, but so, so small. He's so small. A total longshot, but he could be a great story. He's quick and skilled, but will need to be even quicker to cover his lack of length, let alone the physical strength and resiliency on the puck that he'll have to develop.
• Victor Mancini is a fascinating study of a USHL prospect deciding to spend his junior career in Sweden. I think it shows great maturity and outside the box thinking to trust what developmental system suits you best. He's playing top pair minutes, has improved his offense already this year, and if he can get a bit smoother on his feet and relaxed on the defensive side of the puck, he could be a very curious bet long term. He faced the 53rd least defensive transitions of all players tracked (i.e., a high workload), but had the 13th least controlled defensive transitions, putting his DCZT% at 5th in my tracking.

Tier 7 - The Potential Contributors

• Tristen Robins is a guy who I wanted to do a full profile on, but the more I saw, the less I felt I could really bring up about him. He's an exciting offensive forward, but his potential at centre feels limited. I don't see the work rate off the puck yet, but his explosive stride and offensive work rate brings promise. A talented off-puck scorer as well, he could be a nice complimentary piece.
• I've just really liked Maxim Groshev for what he is. He works hard, plays hard, drives solid play around the net, and is playing a solid role in the KHL.
• Ryan O'Rourke might be one of the most misidentified players in the draft when I look at the data. I don't see a tremendous defensive player, but his ability to pass the puck into the NZ is impressive, and he can step up in the offensive zone often to push for chances himself. I question his mobility and processing of play at higher pace, but he could be an interesting project.
• The more I watched Lukas Cormier, the less projectable I find his game. Lots of skill and a solid passing profile in transition, but I'm just not sure it's enough to overcome his defensive limitations and size deficiency.
• Speaking of size deficiency, I'm more interested in Anton Johannesson. Ruthless passer all over the ice, great skill to open up passing lanes and open up the ice a bit, with daring thought processing that might need refinement, but he's a creative player that could fall far more than he should.
• I've really enjoyed watching Ryan Francis. Really interesting player that slowed down the back half. Hard worker with really interesting speed and skill that could overcome the strength deficiencies he shows.
• Thomas Bordeleau's offensive game on it's own would probably be enough to put him in a tier higher, but his skating, pace, and defensive pursuit play all give me pause. Tremendously creative offensive player with great skill, but he's a bit of a project in terms of a full 200 foot impact player.
• In a similar vein, Tyson Foerster is right in that Bordeleau wheelhouse. Defensive play needs to come a ways, but once the puck is in the offensive zone, he becomes a dangerous offensive generator through passes and shots. There's potential, but not sure it's quite enough to be a 1st round pick.

Tier 6 - Contributors and Big Swings

• I'm not a "Zion Nybeck is underrated" guy, but I think he has potential to overcome his shortcomings. He adapts to heavy pressure well, and shows interesting creativity and is certainly not selfish with the puck. When he chips in on defensive transitions, he's able to strip pucks off opponents well enough. Big time longshot, but there are reasons he's an SHL player this year.
• Guhle/Schneider will be gone well before I'm ready to pick them. I think they'll both get plenty of chances to play in the NHL, and they could be solid impact players defensively, but beyond that, I have big questions. 
• I'm pro-Jean-Luc Foudy. I don't care what anyone else things. The raw tools and potential value he could add to an offense is hard to ignore. He's so much fun, so fast, generates tremendous offensive transition data, and drove way more play that could've led to production than his point output would indicate.
• Emil Heineman has climbed and climbed. I think he's got middle six winger potential. A real wrecking ball with some finesse around the net. I like his work rate and smooth skating talent a little more than someone like Torgersson, he just feels more projectable. Finer points with regards to clogging up the neutral zone and reading opposing offenses is a work in progress, but his trajectory since last season has been exceptional.
• Brendan Brisson is an interesting cowboy hockey case. Excellent dangerous offense, awful dangerous defense. He's inactive and careless away from the puck, but he's brilliant per puck touch with excellent well-rounded offensive ability. I could easily see him ranked much higher than this, but personally I just think his game is a little too limited for anything higher than the mid-20s. Could it get there? Sure, but a middle six offensive forward with defensive shortcomings feels more likely.
• Speaking of players that could go much higher, I'd admit that Jeremie Poirier is ranked very low, but this tier spreads into the 1st and I'd consider it if I had a confident development staff. His defensive game is... bad. Positioning, pursuit, physical work rate, it's just not there. One of the few players I'd call "selfish" with the puck too often. I find his skating and speed generation is a little overrated, his offensive transition game is measurably worse than many defenders higher than him (a trait shared by Emil Andrae), and I just have trouble seeing a trajectory for him long term that likely leaves him as a top end defender. Great lateral mobility and tremendous skill, but just so, so many question marks.
• Alex Pashin is as big a home run swing as it gets, but a well rounded offensive firecracker who works his tail off every shift with great quickness, skill and creativity is something right up my alley. He's years away from NHL success, but he's already pushing for a role in the KHL with a very strong group of 2001 and 2002 kids from Ufa. Similar to Johannesson, he'll be available later than he should in all liklihood.

Tier 5 - Scorers and Upside

• Looking back at my data, I'm still dumbfounded at some of the offensive results Lukas Reichel generated. He could be one of the better complimentary scorers to come out of this draft. His instincts are outstanding in open space and he constantly finds ways to drive offense. He's still at the top of my tracking in individual high danger shot generation, and was a primary source for offensive chances on Berlin.
• Jacob Perreault could very well be pitched to me at a higher slot. He has so much talent with his skill, ability to drive up the middle of the ice or use the boards to his advantage, he's a creative playmaker with a great shot on top of it. More confidence with the puck to push his shot volume closer to the net would do him well, and he'll need to learn some lessons about a full 200-foot effort, but the talent is undeniable.
• Ozzy Wiesblatt was a guy who blew me away after tracking him. There's just so much potential there if he fills out a bit and can shore up his game when the puck is on the other team's sticks. He's relentlessly focused on attacking, generate a ton of offensive threat, and if you liked Seth Jarvis and can't land him, Wiesblatt is not a bad consolation that could be available much later.
• On that note, Daniil Gushchin is one of the most exciting players available. His two-way game is underrated, his results were excellent, he scores and sets up some highlight reel goals, and he could easily come out as one of the steals of the draft if he can get a bit stronger on his feet and cut down on the mental lapses with the puck to keep his transition game a bit simpler at times.
• Jan Mysak landed the first "Mr. Overrated" award, but he's still a very good hockey player. I have big questions about how he projects as his game is now, but he flashed some real potential in transition with his skill, agility and straight line speed. Putting the pieces together especially with the puck in the offensive zone seems to be an issue at 5v5, but he could be a great bet in the 2nd round should he slip a bit.

Tier 4- Potential Core Players

• I'm not sure what else I can say about Marat. He's the "Mr. Stick Your Neck Out" this year, and he'll be a fascinating case study for me to look back on. I adore his approach to the game and he's exactly what I look for in a centre. He's extremely raw, but the raw tools when he showcases his best hockey are absolutely disgusting. He's fast, skilled, selfless with the puck, and drives tremendous defensive results with a great transition game to go with it. Constantly involved in play, constantly supporting his line, constantly anticipating play, I just can't not love his game.
• I could be convinced to swing on Jake Sanderson much earlier than 14, no question. He's a great transition defender with excellent shut down talent through the neutral zone. I think the offense is there, but he's a great example of a modern defensive defender. Shut down play to avoid defensive cycles in the first place, turn the puck around, and get it into the offensive zone with control. He's very good at it, and I think better than his production indicates. Top 5 pick? Probably not to me, but the later part of the Top 10? We can chat
• I haven't been particularly thrilled with Noel Gunler now that I've seen more of other players, looking back at my video clips, and seeing him play in the early parts of the SHL season. He could be a good middle six two-way winger with offensive flair, and his results weren't bad at all, but his defensive game is hit or miss, and his involvement in play is also very inconsistent. He could be a good bet in the 20s, but I'm not sure I see him as that Top 15 talent that I had all season.

Tier 3 - Should-Be Core Players

• I'm a believer in Askarov, and if he's ranked similarly to an Anton Lundell, would you rather land a potential very good #2 or 3 centre? Or gamble on a potential franchise goaltender? I may not fully understand what I'm looking at with Askarov, but I like what I see. He's calm, collected, covers the net effectively, has the athleticism to cover cross-ice play extremely well, and is already a core piece in the KHL at 18 years old. If he starts slipping, he quickly becomes potentially excellent value in my opinion.
• Holtz's tracked data was... bad, but on the bright side, if there's a player I trust shooting from everywhere, it's him. His skating and work rate is good enough where I'm not concerned about his ability to get himself into scoring position either, but I'm not sure he's a player you build a team around. Excellent scorer, unbelievable shot, dangerous from anywhere.
• I like Rodion Amirov more and more the more I see him. Just such a rock solid hockey player with the skill and agility to be an aggressive scorer once he gets a bit stronger and more confident. I think there's a really bright future for him, and drafting him ahead of names like Lundell and Askarov is an argument I have time for in this tier. 

Tier 2 - Top End Pieces

• Yep, Marco Rossi's still #3. He's been given a bit of a run by Raymond recently, but I'm holding fast on this one. I have tons of hope for Rossi to be a remarkable NHL centre that overcomes the criticisms leveled his direction.
• Lucas Raymond is a very good hockey player, and he always was. If he's available outside the Top 5, you pick him. Arguably the smartest two-way mind in the draft, arguably the most explosive first couple steps on top of that, and drove remarkable defense-first results in the SHL in limited usage. I'm a huge, huge fan.
• Tim Stutzle has the potential to score plenty of points, that much is clear. I still don't understand the idea that he's the 2nd best prospect available, and I don't understand the idea of him being a centre one day. He overcommits with and without the puck often, he doesn't adapt to pressure with intelligence, rather trying to force his way through with whatever seems to come to mind. He can get boxed out a bit easily, and I just see a bit more in Rossi and Raymond that I like.
  
• These guys could be ordered any way and I'd understand the rationale, but I look for full, 200 foot overall impact on the flow of play, and I see a bit more in the guys at 3 and 4 than I do at 5, but 5 could certainly score lots and lots, which is what many people are looking for. 

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

• Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was... 
• This has been talked to death, but it's never changed to me. These two are the best two options available. Lafreniere is the better player today, but Byfield shows unbelievable potential to be a premier franchise centre with a skillset everyone wishes they had more of.
  
• Both of these will be as good as their minds want to take them. Putting in a full 200 foot effort every possible shift on the ice could make these two players special, and I think they both have it in them.

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Overall Thoughts

I'm just excited and anxious about all of it being over at this point. I'm not really sure what else to say. I hope you have fun, I hope your team gets all the players you want them to get, try to be kind to each other and these kids, and it's time to raise some money!