Scouching's 2019 World Junior Championship Preview

Fleury sad.

To many hockey fans, the IIHF World Junior Championships creates some of the most exciting games of the year before the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Whether it's fans whose favourite team is in the running for the top talent in the upcoming draft, fans of teams with prospects in the tournament, or the sheer excitement that comes from a tournament of young men representing their nations at what might be the highest level they will do so. Some of my fondest and most heartbreaking memories in hockey come from the stories that sprout from this tournament. Benjamin Conz saving 50 of 52 shots to eliminate the Vladimir Tarasenko-led Russians, Marc-Andre Fleury's own goal that handed the United States their first goal, or Kasperi Kapanen sealing the 2016 tournament in overtime, it's some of the wildest hockey you'll see.

The 2019 installment begins on December 26 in Vancouver, almost assuredly a fanatical host city. The story of the tournament will likely be the Jack Hughes/Kappo Kakko show, with a potential coming out party for Canadian 2020 eligible Alexis Lafreniere. For those unfamiliar, Jack Hughes is the unanimous selection for 1st overall selection in the 2019 NHL Draft, also to be held in Vancouver. Hughes is a somewhat small, but incredibly skilled centreman currently playing with the U.S. National Program. He's extremely skilled, extremely smart, extremely fast, and has only gotten better as the year has progressed. Kappo Kakko is a bigger, heavier player currently playing professionally in Turku, Finland. Kappo gets by on his ability to protect the puck with speed, creating open space with his agility, and both create scoring chances and score goals himself. He started the season extremely hot, but has cooled to a much more reasonable profile, still indicative of a top draft pick. Lafreniere is a winger who is extremely highly regarded as a top pick in 2020. He is just a few days too old to be eligible for the 2019 NHL Draft, and his metrics point to what very likely would be a Top-3 pick in this year's draft. His 41.5% INV% and 28.64 NHLeScore is a remarkable achievement for a prospect of any age, and I'm hoping he makes the Canadian team and plays a significant role. His NHLeScore (an age, position, and league adjusted metric to examine the value of a player's production) sits 2nd on a fully loaded team.There will be some very high level at this tournament on a few different teams, and in the World Juniors, a few great performances can be the difference between an early elimination and a gold medal.

The preliminary rosters have been released, and the player data has been compiled into a spreadsheet that will be linked at the bottom of this article, so feel free to peruse but only once you've finished the little profiles thrown together for each team's camp roster.

We're going to look at each team in ascending order of average NHLeScore. Our 10th ranked team is the team saved in relegation last year: Denmark.

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#10 - Denmark - 1.98 NHLeScore
Key Name - Mads Søgaard (G)

The Danish team scored just two goals in the preliminary round last year, but won where it counted saving themselves from relegation against Belarus. The Belorussian team has a ton of young talent looking to earn their spot back in the 2020 tournament, but at time of publishing are likely to lose out to the similarly talented German hosts. The Danish team are a weak looking team that will likely need to do some serious work to avoid relegation again. They are led by SHL defenseman and Detroit Red Wing draft pick Malte Setkov, Vegas pick Jonas Røndbjerg, and draft-eligible goaltender Mads Søgaard out of Medicine Hat in the WHL. Søgaard will be heavily relied upon, and while his 2.5gaa, 0.924 year in the WHL is a good sign, I'm unsure of where the scoring on this team will come from outside of Rondbjerg, who even still is not having the most successful SHL season (NHLeScore of 3.32).

If Søgaard can steal a game or two, then maybe Denmark is the shock of the tournament and finds themselves in a quarterfinal game, but that outcome seems remote at best. When your leading NHLeScorer is a 19 year old defenseman scoring a half a point per game in the Swedish U-20 league, things look a bit grim.

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#9 - Kazakhstan - 5.34 NHLeScore
Key Name - Valeri Orekhov (D)​

The team that will likely join Denmark in the relegation round, Kazakhstan, may not be bringing a particularly competitive team, they are still bringing a pretty solid group of talent playing in various levels within the KHL-system that may be able to avoid relegation against Denmark. Their key weakness will be in net, and if the Danish goalkeeping can hold firm, it's possible they squeak through. The Kazakhs don't really have a standout offensive threat like Denmark does in Røndbjerg, so it's possible that a great pair of games from Søgaard and a major effort from Røndbjerg helps keep the team alive, but there are some exciting, high scoring options in Kazakhstan that may be a bit of a handful.

In 2018, Kazakhstan was propelled to the top division on the backs of diminutive MHL forward Artyom Gatiyov and KHL defenseman Valeri Orekhov, and they will likely be relied upon again this season. Sayan and Samat Daniyar (unrelated) are likely to be solid supplementary options. Many of these players have played together for years in the Barys Astana program. and that kind of familiarity will likely be a benefit.

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#8 - Switzerland - 5.99 NHLeScore
Key Name - Philipp Kurashev (C)

The Swiss historically manage to finish in the "just good enough" tier to usually consider themselves safe from relegation. For the bright spots this team has, there doesn't seem to be quite enough for them to make a significant amount of noise, but there shouldn't be any doubt of an expected spot in the quarterfinals.. Chicago draft pick Philipp Kurashev has all the potential to really bring some fans out of their seats with his puck skill and raw offense, Nando Eggenberger is likely to be a major piece and Columbus pick Tim Berni is a fluid skating offensive defender who could have a nice tournament on a defense core led by Washington prospect Tobias Geisser. Draft eligibles Kyen Sopa and Valentin Nussbaumer should also be very useful pieces in the lineup, and seeing them at this tournament will be a nice chance to view them playing against some high quality competition before the NHL draft.

One advantage that the Swiss have is the large number of players that are regulars in the Swiss men's leagues. With eight NLA players and an AHL defenseman, the Swiss will have plenty of names that will at least have experience against some very solid hockey talent. Experience at that level is an asset against teams made mostly of junior talent, but for the Swiss, that experience ends in goal. Luca Hollenstein and Devils prospect Akira Schmid are sub-.880 goaltenders at the NLB (Swiss Men's 2nd division) and USHL respectively, which doesn't bode well for their chances of going particularly far in the tournament.

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#7 - Slovakia - 8.12 NHLeScore
Key Name - Martin Pospisil (C)

​The Slovakian team has historically been eliminated in the quarterfinals every year since 2014, save one bronze medal win in 2015 on the back of Martin Réway and goaltender Denis Godla. That trend is likely to continue this season, but the group Slovakia is producing is one of the better ones I can remember recently. This is a team that will almost certainly make it to the quarterfinals on the backs of their offensive talent, but is unlikely to have the goaltending or defensive depth to shock their opponents in that round.

With notable names like Martin Pospisil, they will have some gritty offensive options that teams shouldn't undeestimate. Pospisil has been part of one of the more dangerous lines in the USHL with draft eligibles Bobby Brink and Marcus Kallionkieli with a massive 46% involvement in team offense.

The interesting part lies with their younger additions to the team. Maxim Cajkovic exploded onto the scene at the U18 tournament last year and has been very good on an awful team in Saint John. Andrej Kukuca and Oliver Okuliar absolutely dominated the U20 level last year in Slovakia as draft eligibles, and both have transitioned well to the Canadian Hockey League. Milos Roman, Adam Ruzicka and Michal Ivan are solid CHLers as well, so there's a strong backbone of players familiar with smaller ice who can also produce. Martin Fehérváry and Adam Liska are playing in high level professional leagues in Europe and are contributors, which only adds more pieces that will help.

They have major weaknesses on the backend and in net, but there are interesting names up front that can score goals. Anything can happen at the World Juniors, and upsets happen every year, but it's likely that the Slovakians will make the cut for next year, while missing out on medal contention.

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#6 - Czech Republic - 9.5 NHLeScore
Key Name - Filip Chytil (C)

In the 2018 tournament, the group of Filip Chytil, Martin Necas, Filip Zadina and Martin Kaut helped propel the Czechs to a 4th place finish, their best performance since 2005. This season, all of those players are back. While in terms of NHLeScore, this team is further down the table than most, it cannot be denied that this team has as much of a chance of getting far in this tournament as anyone higher than themselves on this list. Filip Chytil continues to improve in the NHL with the New York Rangers, Filip Zadina has gotten better with Grand Rapids in the AHL, Martin Necas and Martin Kaut is a major piece of the Colorado Eagles roster. All are playing in excellent leagues and performing very well for their respective ages, even if the listed scores may not illustrate that. This team is absolutely loaded with offensive talent that can score in multiple ways, and they shouldn't be underestimated.

A further strength of the team (hopefully) lies in net. Islanders pick Jakub Skarek has been one of the best goaltenders in the Liiga this season. A top goaltender in the highest men's division in Finland is no joke. Skarek has been rough in previous tournaments, but he appears to be developing nicely in men's competition and I would expect him to be one of the best goalies in the tournament. With this team's combination of raw offence with their potential in net, the Czech Republic just might be able to pull of what they couldn't last year, or any year in the last 14; a medal finish.

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#5 - Russia - 9.24 NHLeScore
Key Name - Vitali Kravtsov (RW)

Historically the Russian team is almost certainly a lock to make it to at least the semifinals, but last year was a big step back as a lacklustre preliminary round resulted in an unfavourable quarterfinal against a strong American team on their way to a bronze medal. The pressure to get themselves back to the semifinals must be as intense as it gets, and the last time this team had such a poor showing, they turned around and won the whole thing the following year led by Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Tarasenko. This season the Russians are bringing a very talented squad full of players who have broken into full-time KHL work, and some who have found tremendous success at the highest levels in Russia. Most notably, Rangers Top-10 pick, skilled and powerful winger Vitali Kravtsov is the highest NHLeScore of any player in the tournament at a massive 37.5 playing for the KHL's Traktor Chelyabinsk. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kravstov take this tournament over, especially if he's paired with a solid puck possession centre like Minnesota's Alex Khovanov. Draft eligible Vasili Podkozlin should be a contributor as well, and this could be a nice time for him to show the scouting world that his lack of production thus far is no cause for concern.

The questions arise when you realize who the team left off the roster. Calgary's Dmitri Zavgorodny didn't even receive a camp invite, even though his performances on Russian national teams have been exemplary before, and his year in Rimouski has been remarkable thus far. Edmonton pick Kirill Maximov has been great in Niagara and he too was left off the list. Toronto Maple Leafs fan-favourite Semyon Der-Arguchintsev was another name somewhat surprisingly left off. All of these players are used to the smaller ice in North America and have measurable success compared to some of the forward names listed and could've likely been supplementary assets. Russia's defense is traditionally not great, but Washington first rounder Alexander Alexeyev has taken a big step in Red Deer and simply couldn't have been left off the list. He and Kravtsov will be relied upon heavily to offset the likely porous defense this team will have.

The Russians have further strength in net with Columbus pick Daniil Tarasov, Amir Miftakhov and Pyotr Kochetkov to choose from. All are solid goaltenders against men in the KHL's 2nd division, the VHL. They may be busy, but they'll likely be able to keep goals against under control.

This is not a team that I'd write off, and they'll be hungry. They have the individual talent to really take over the tournament, but time will tell if the depth is there to validate the lineup  decisions they made.

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 #4 - Finland - 11.62 NHLeScore
Key Name - Rasmus Kupari (C)

While we're on the topic of disappointing teams from 2018, the Finns were upset by the Czechs in a quarterfinal shootout and they'll be looking to avenge their defeat with one heck of a team. The Finns are not afraid to go with young skill, and this year is no different. Kappo Kakko, Mikko Kokkonen, Anton Lundell, Lassi Thomson, Ville Heinola, and Anttoni Honka are all draft eligible in either 2019 or 2020, and many should be expected to make the team and be contributors. Even if this group doesn't achieve the highest standing, the future of the Finnish program is remarkably bright. Kappo Kakko is a lock to be the #2 pick in the draft, and his season against men in the Liiga matches that of Patrik Laine. 

For every great youth player, the Finns also have drafted talent that has the ability to take this tournament over. Rasmus Kupari and Alexsi Heponiemi have been lethal together with Kärpät in the Liiga, Oskari Laaksonen has been a nice surprise for Buffalo, and stocky goal scorer Niklas Nordgren will be hoping to build off of an excellent U-18 tournament last spring. The team may also get a massive boost from skilled power forward Kristian Vesalainen, reliable defender Urho Vaakaanainen, and speedy sniper Eeli Tolvanen should their respective NHL teams release them. Talent like that could make them favourites very quickly.

Their defense is mobile, their forwards are creative and skilled, and they're one of the younger teams in the tournament. With a solid goaltending option in Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, who has transitioned to smaller ice quite nicely, the Finns have a very high ceiling for both this year and next.

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#3 - The USA - 14.5 NHLeScore
Key Player - Jack Hughes (C)

It is painfully evident to me that the construction of the American team is perplexing to say the least. There is a solid group of forwards and a good selection of goaltenders, but there have been some remarkable hockey players completely left off the list for this year, especially on defense. Mobile puck movers like Reilly Walsh, Max Gildon, Jack Rathbone, and most egregious of all, Bode Wilde were all left off the camp list in favour of larger, tougher and safer defensemen such as Ty Emberson, Dylan Samberg, Mattias Samuelsson, and Phillip Kemp. That being said, Quinn Hughes, Joey Keane and K'Andre Miller will provide a good group with regards to mobility, it's just that there was so much talent left behind that I wouldn't be surprised to see this team get exposed defensively by faster teams like the Canadians and perhaps the Finns. I get the idea, but it really strikes me as trying 2014 hockey in 2018 by relying on slowing the game down. Young players these days are often just too quick and skilled for players like these to counter, especially in international tournaments where referees are much more likely to send guys to the penalty box for rough n' tough play.

The forward group does look quite dangerous, and they're led by the almost certain #1 pick in 2019, Jack Hughes. Hughes is a gifted skater with great vision while on the ice. If he's getting the puck in the defensive zone, he'll weave through the neutral zone like it's no problem, and he'll do so with tremendous speed. He can make plays out of nothing, and no matter who he's playing with, he'll get the puck where it needs to be in order to put points on the board. The idea of a line of Jack Hughes, Dallas pick Jason Robertson and Islanders first rounder Oliver Wahlstrom should terrify just about everyone, especially if Jack's brother Quinn Hughes is patrolling the blueline. Blackhawks pick Evan Barratt, Canadiens pick Ryan Poehling, San Jose's Alex Chmelevski, Josh "Traded for Erik Karlsson" Norris, and Philadelphia's Joel Farabee will be an excellent group to rely on for secondary scoring as well, and if the team can keep the puck out of their own zone, they will be a tough team to outscore. Defeating this team will also include getting pucks past one of Kyle Keyser, Spencer Knight or Cayden Primeau. All are enticing options and this team will likely be right in contention for a medal. It's just a question of how much a more mobile, modern defense group could have helped to really push this team over the edge.

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 #2 - Sweden - 14.87 NHLeScore
Key Name: Erik Brännström (D)

If the Americans and Finns are going to earn success from their offensive talent, the Swedes will win from the defense out. Simply put, the Swedish defense group should be an absolute menace in this year's tournament. Erik Brännström, Adam Boqvist, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, and Nils Lundqvist and all NHL first round picks. They are all very good hockey players. Three currently play in the AHL, one plays in the SHL, and the other is improving very quickly with the London Knights. There are names up front who can score, and omissions like Albin Eriksson and Jonatan Berggren are questionable, but this is a team that could quietly pick away at your team, generate a ton of shots from the blueline, and capitalize on any greasy goals around the net that may present themselves. Filip Hållander and Jacob Olofsson were steals in the NHL draft,  and they should be a pair to watch. Samuel Fagemo is one of the best overage NHL draft eligibles on paper this year, Emil Bemstrom and Johan Södergran have been great goal scorers in the SHL, and Vegas pick Lukas Elvenes could be a great option to get the puck to them.

The Swedes look like a very strong team. They may have some issues with goal scoring depth, but their defense is likely to go toe-to-toe with the Canadian group this season. So long as their goaltending can hold things together, they should be a force in this year's tournament. 

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#1 - Canada - 17.86 NHLeScore
Key Player - Cody Glass (C)

I'm trying very hard to remove my Canadian bias, but this team is a favourite to medal, and to me, the favourite to win. There were some names they left at home that were particularly disappointing to me, such as Ryan Merkley, Akil Thomas, WHL leading scorer Trey Fix-Wolansky, or Connor Dewar, but overall this team looks deep, skilled, fast, and smart.

Ty Smith has had one of the best season of any drafted prospect of any age outside of the NHL this season with an enormous 41% INV%, and Montreal 2017 pick Josh Brook is not far behind with a 40.3%. Having those two in the same defense group is outrageous, and the idea of tossing Evan Bouchard, Calen Addison, and Noah Dobson, into that group is mouthwatering. Beyond that, you've got Jacob Bernard-Docker, Nicolas Beaudin, and Jared McIsaac to choose from. Many of the top names are right-handed, so there may be some heartbreak if the team chooses to play strictly to handedness, but the raw talent is there to be an absolute force. Up front you have absolutely ridiculous names like Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Morgan Frost, Barrett Hayton, Ty Dellandrea, Owen Tippett, and 2020 eligible Alexis Lafrenière. This team is built to win the thing.

I'll put it this way, a 20+ NHLeScore is roughtly what you'd expect from a first round NHL pick in a given year, regardless of age or position. There are 30 listed on camp rosters so far. Canada has 13 of them. That doesn't include Gabe Vilardi or Max Comtois either.  Finland is next with 6. Swapping out names like Crotty, Joseph, Phillips, Entwistle, and Bowers for names like Ryan Merkley, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Stelio Mattheos, and even Serron Noel or Kirby Dach would've pushed that number even higher. It isn't all about production of course, but the measurable difference would be significant.

To to the pile of talent, Ian Scott, the hottest goaltender in Canadian hockey is likely to make the team with Mike DiPietro. Both have been tough to beat this year and will likely be a reliable group behind an exceptional defense core.

This Canadian team contains one of the best junior defense groups that I can remember, and their offense isn't far behind. While there were names I would've liked to have been given a chance by Hockey Canada, the team they've selected is an interesting blend of skill that has huge talent where it counts. They'll likely be a team that will be a major issue to deal with regardless of who they put on the ice and they look like an early team to beat.

NOTE: At time of writing, no cuts had been made, but as of publishing, Ty Dellandrea has been cut from the Canadian Camp. This is somewhat surprising considering his year so far, but likely doesn't remove the team from their position on this list.

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Final Thoughts

The 2019 World Junior Championship is poised to be another great installment in what has become some of the best non-NHL hockey of the year. For a lot of these kids, it's the pinnacle of their hockey careers. For many, it's a great chance to impress NHL scouts on a major stage. For fans, it's a fantastic way to get a look at your favourite prospects. Names like Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere, Quinn Hughes, and Kappo Kakko are looking to add to their already lengthy resumes and all hope to go far.

While Canada is a favourite, this tournament is known for it's upsets and surprises. A team like the Czech Republic is loaded with some high level talent playing a step below the NHL and could surprise someone in their expected quarterfinal game. The junior hockey world is equalizing over time, and every year that trend gets put on display and often times, the unexpected happens. This tournament is one that I look forward to every year, and if you and your family haven't gotten drunk on the World Junior Kool-Aid yet, it's very delicious.

As promised, in case the embedded spreadsheet isn't ​functioning properly for you, here's the direct link to the Google Sheet. Enjoy!