Scouching's 2020 World Junior Championship Preview

Just want the data? Fine. Click here. Or scroll down once the tournament begins and rosters are finalized.

It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.

It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected. 

I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.

Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.

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#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

I know I just mentioned that this year's tournament is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm relatively confident the Kazakhs are destined for relegation. Names like Artur Gatiyatov, Demid Yeremyev and Samat/Sayan Daniyar are gone, with names like Maxim Musorov, and Vladislav Nurek to replace them. I've seen Musorov and Guseinov play, and while they're good talents at the MHL level, most of these players hail from an MHL team that has won 9 of 42 games this year. Trouble is, they also cut Guseinov, a 45%INV player on that team that makes up a large portion of this one. I would be absolutely shocked if this team manages to save themselves in relegation against their likely German opponents.

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#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

A team that likely had the talent to be in this tournament last year, the Germans are a team I feel will likely be in the relegation group with Kazakhstan; not due to talent, but due to the logistics of the tournament. Of Canada, Russia, Czechia, and the USA, I have a hard time seeing them getting anywhere above last place in their group. It's possible  that a top tier group of Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel, John-Jason Peterka, and Moritz Seider could upset a team or two if Hendrik Hane absolutely shuts the door, which I personally would greatly enjoy, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.

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#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

The greatest coach in hockey  has found new work with HC Davos, but last year's Cinderella story is back with another group that may not be able to recapture the magic from last year. Philipp Kurashev, a star in the 2019 tournament is now ineligible and off to a solid North American pro career with the AHL's Rockford Ice Hogs. There aren't a ton of names that could shock opponents as Switzerland has fallen off a little in recent years with regards to NHL draft output, but Tim Berni, Nico Gross, Valentin Nussbaumer, and undrafted not-goalie David Aebischer could all be contributors. Goaltender Luca Hollenstein has been a solid goaltender for Swiss junior teams, and if he can steal a game here or there again, anything is possible, even if he's 5'10".

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#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

The perennial quarterfinalists are back with another team with flashes of talent, but not a whole lot of real depth. I will say that I think this is a stronger team than usual. I'm extremely excited to see 2020 eligibles Samuel Knazko and a major sleeper for me in Marko Stacha hopefully play major roles. Maxim Cajkovic should be the top player on this team though. He's a true sniper with great skill, but his defensive shortcomings may be a bit exposed with a shallow defense and centre group. The thought of cutting Martin Chromiak is a perplexing one, but this should be a curious team for the Slovakians.

Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.

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#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
​Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

The strength of the Finns this year will come from their depth. Justus Annunen has been great in the Liiga this year, and this tournament will be a major test of that success. The team on paper is headlined by Coyotes draft pick Matias Maccelli who has absolutely erupted for Ilves Tampere in the Liiga. His teammate Lassi Thomson will headline the defense with a rejuvenated Anttoni Honka, and notable Winnipeg Jet Ville Heinola. With Rasmus Kupari, the Räty brothers, the forward group should be solid as well, but I'm a bit hesitant to see if they repeat last year's success. It may come down to how Annunen plays, but you also can't ever count out the Finns and how they play the game. They're fast, they work as a unit, they play hard, can wear opponents down and can capitalize on your mistakes.

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#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

Here's where we start to get into the weeds a bit. With the way Russian teams "develop" their youth, NHLeS metrics can be artifically low for many Russian players, especially the youngest of the bunch. This year the Russian team is the oldest in the tournament by a third of a year, but there is plenty of talent all over this lineup that I think could easily threaten the best teams out there. If Yaroslav Askarov is the guy in net, he could be the star of the show. I usually don't touch goaltending much in my work, but Askarov is the only VHL goaltender under 18 years of age to play major minutes in recent memory and he's touched KHL ice with SKA St. Petersburg and did not look out of place. He's legit, and as good a bet at a #1 goaltender as you're going to get since Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's unbelievably athletic and technical, making the game look easy and being mature well beyond his years.

Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.

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#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

Since the Swedes won the gold in 2012, they never missed medal contention until they got shut out by the Swiss last year. The trouble is that they haven't won the tournament since 2012 either and lost all three bronze medal games they competed in. They've reloaded their team for 2020 with an outstanding defense crop including Victor Söderström, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Rasmus Sandin, and Tobias Björnfot. That is a gross group of players to have moving pucks up the ice and controlling possession of the game. Any of the three goaltenders on their roster could be very solid as well.

The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.

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#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

I'm just as surprised to see the Czechs have as high a score as they have, but with a number of good CHL players on the way, and one of the highest NHLeS' in the tournament in Jan Jeník leading the way, the Czechs could have a very impressive tournament after making it through the quarterfinals just once since 2005. Lukas Dostal was wonderful last season and should get his job back this year, but Nick Malik and Jan Bednar are two 2020 eligibles who are quite highly regarded as prospects.

Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.   

The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.

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#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

Hahahahahahaha this team is so loaded that you just have to laugh. The 2019 USA NTDP team headliners are almost all here they brought all their outsider friends too. Arthur Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, Bobby Brink, Zac Jones, Jordan Harris, etc. etc. etc. are a great group on their own, but adding Trevor Zegras, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Alex Turcotte, Beecher, and others from prior years is simply ridiculous. I know I was down on Spencer Knight last year, but this is why I'm outward about how goaltending is weird. He's been great with Boston College and internationally, so I expect nothing to change there. This is a dangerous team with at least three scary lines that could easily take this tournament, and the defense is a well rounded group of offensive talent and physical ability. Even the role players like Parker Ford, Curtis Hall and Jack Drury have been impressive players when I've seen them.

I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.

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#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

Once again, the Canadian team is out front by quite a margin. The CHL is the best junior league program in the world, but I'm one of those people that firmly believes that European programs and players are continously catching up and underrated. That being said, Canada should still be the top team in this tournament. Their perennial weaknesses often are in net, and with their discipline on international ice. Last year's talent was somewhat light in premier offensive talent, but this year is quite the opposite. Canada's 2020 crop is outstanding and they've chosen to showcase Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Jamie Drysdale, and Dawson Mercer on this year's team. Byfield is a very large, very good skating creative offensive threat, Lafrenière is an absolute hound on the ice with remarkable skill and overall offensive ability, Drysdale is already a top two-way OHL defender, and Mercer is one of the more well-rounded finishers in the 2020 draft outside of the aforementioned Canadians.

The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.

I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.

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Closing Thoughts

I really want to reiterate that this year really feels like an especially deep and talented pool of players that we'll get the privilege of watching in Czechia. There are legitimately 6 teams I could see having a good run at winning a medal, and really anything can happen at this tournament. Multiple teams have top level goaltending, multiple teams have top level offensive weapons, multiple teams are absolutely loaded on defense, and I honestly have a hard time actually being definitive about who is likely to finish where.

That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:

Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia

This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.

In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.

P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.

Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.

- Will