Want to skip all the reading and just access the Google Sheet of rosters and data? Say no more. With that out of the way, I hope you enjoy this overview of what looks to be another great installment of this tournament!

Once again, it is the most wonderful time of the year, as we all binge eat tasty treats and delicious food items, loosen our belts, sit on the couch and yell while literal teenagers play hockey for their respective home nations for millions of absurdly intense fans around the world. Yes my friends, the 2023 IIHF World Junior Hockey tournament his season's tournament is lining up to be a heck of an instalment. Not only is this the first regular tournament with (hopefully) no interruptions and fans in the building since the 2020 tournament, but this year's group of players is not only remarkably top heavy with very bright youth for the future of the game, but beyond the top three teams, it could be a remarkably tight and even tournament full of upsets and surprises, even moreseo than usual. Yes, Canada is bringing the likely first two names called in the 2023 Draft this year, but I honestly cannot tell which team is going to push hardest for the last spot in the semifinals, only because Finland, Slovakia, and Czechia are bringing highly competitive teams, and who knows, with some luck in the round robin and quarterfinals, may put favoured teams like the US, Canada and Sweden on their heels a bit.

It's also time to congratulate the talented U20 group from Norway on their victory in the Division 1A tournament, earning a spot in the 2024 tournament in Sweden. They ran away with the tournament with a +11 goal differential in 5 games, and were the 2nd youngest team there, with 16 of 22 players eligible to return for next year headlined by talented names such as Petter Vesterheim, Mats Bakke Olsen, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, and smol goalie king Markus Røhnebæk Stensrud. While I'm at it, shouts out to the Japanese U20 team continuing their strong progression internationally, earning their spot in the 1A tournament next year for the first time ever. As a last point, I'm incredibly proud to see the Ukrainian junior team come ever so close to landing themselves a spot in that tournament for the first time themselves before losing 7-4 to the Japanese. They've been locked at the 1B level since 2012, and coming paralyzingly close considering all the strife at home may sting, but I was proud of the effort put forth and hope they can build on it next year with 10 eligible returnees scattered throughout the world.

Before getting into the team-by-team previews, I'd like to just clarify what the metrics you're looking at are and what their caveats are. INV% is simply the average percentage of goals the team scores where the player has a point. Typically 20-25% is a great measure for defenders, and over 30% is quite notable for forwards. NHLeS is a metric I developed to age, league and position adjust a player's production and INV% to illustrate their general value. 20+ is historically 1st round production, but this metric can be a bit misleading in men's league hockey in Europe, as ice time can affect the likelihood of production, and many skilled players are held back from scoring situations more than higher end players in those leagues. It's a nice catch-all, but it does not illustrate "who is better than whom".

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I am so, so excited for this tournament. It'll be so nice to have the first uninterrupted or weirdly timed World Junior tournament in a while with a full crowd, and in fantastic host cities in Moncton and Halifax. These tournaments are always a source of national pride, almost to a fault for some folks, but it's a cultural cornerstone that I'm glad that we have. These guys are hungry, and they play some of the best, hardest, and most heart-pulsing hockey in the entire hockey calendar around the world, and we're all better for it. I genuinely do believe this year's tournament is going to be tighter and more unpredictable than ever. Even if Canada is favoured heavily on paper, you just never, ever know. One game can make all the difference, but further down the table could be a heck of a show we won't want to miss. The future of the game looks stronger than ever, with so many players on so many teams draft eligible in 2023, obviously led by Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, but down the table, there are a ton of talented Slovakians, Americans, and Swedes that are peppered around their rosters that could make real names of themselves on a huge platform.

Thanks so much for reading through this preview! Again, if you want to access and follow along on my database of rosters, click here! Enjoy the tournament, be nice online if your team loses, and we'll see you on the other side.

Here we are, all together again for the holiday season. I've been hard at work since late August watching and tracking hundreds of players around the world, and my first preliminary list is now ready for public consumption. Be forewarned, there are takes, but rather than farming clicks, I've explained where my head is at with the vast majority of where I diverge from the norm. This season, I feel like I diverge quite a bit from the norm moreso than average, and I'm really curious to see and hear the feedback from you all, both in and out of the league.

Overall, this is a very strong class in my opinion. Any team in the bottom half of the NHL standings, especially in the top 10 or so should be very excited about their potential options. There are some exceptional forwards available especially, headlined by two wonderfully talented players, with a handful of high skill and high intensity defensemen mixed into a forward-heavy group that could be great adds as well. I would say that where my "bar of excitement" where I throw my hands in the air and go "pick whoever", within reason of course has expanded from around 25 players last year, to almost two full rounds this year. I really think that anyone in my top two rounds have something in their game that can get you excited about what they could be in the NHL. Obviously not every single player will play, but this is a class that gives me stronger feelings than the last two at least.

It's almost important to outline exactly what I'm looking for and how I value players transparently, which can be imperative for communicating with the public. I'll copypasta from last year's final ranking post because my philosophy hasn't particularly changed for quite a while. I don't mind taking on more risk if it means the player in question could bring skills that make them talents you wish you had more of at the NHL level. I will always value players with higher end individual traits that could slot into a clear NHL role with possible success over players that are competent all-around if not exciting. Some may disagree and go for "safety" over risk, but that's the beauty of evaluating talent in a professional sports environment. There are many ways to be successful, it's just a matter of having a strong organizational philosophy that you trust can bring you success over the long term. In terms of the types of players I gravitate to, I've always held that speed, skill, pace and the ability to problem solve and make plays in close quarters are major factors that can make a player impactful at the NHL level. Biometric factors and other intangible factors carry a certain level of weight with me, but I always go back to the end results and the quality of play coming from a player. If the results are great but the players lack that speed, skill, pace and problem solving ability that I look for, that player is devalued, especially if they're undersized on top of it all. If they are struggling to produce those results on the scoresheet but carry those traits, they may be worth nurturing and working with over a long period to try to get that puck to go in the net more often than it does, and in my experience, betting on those traits leads to generally greater success, especially outside of the early rounds of the draft.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up. I'd also like to thank InStat Hockey and McKeens Hockey for providing access to the video and data tools that are invaluable to my work. If you'd like an outline of the metrics below, here they are:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.

Thank you so much for having a peek at this preliminary list and we'll see you on the other side!

Thank you for reading over my thoughts on these impressive players. It's going to be an exciting class to say the least, and there are tons of guys I'm really excited about. I imagine this will look quite a bit different by year's end, but it's always fun to put out a cross-section of where my head is at. As always, have a happy holiday season, enjoy the time off, and I'll see you all in 2023! In the meantime, the World Juniors are coming, and they are going to be a doozy, I think. Lots of draft eligibles, and plenty of returning players that could electrify hockey fans all over the world. If you'd like to read my World Junior writeup, click here.