The Scouching Blog

Scouching's Post-Draft Lottery Mock Draft

6/3/2021

Welcome to the mock draft. I hope you're ready to get angry because your team doesn't fake-get your favourite prospect! It's been a while since I put one of these together with all the chaos, weirdness and uncertainty of the 2020 Draft. Quite honestly, I just forgot to put one together, but forget this year I shan't.

I'll keep the preamble brief. The way I think of mock drafts is splitting it between who my pick would be, should I be king of the world and picking for each team, and who my gut actually thinks will get picked. Will's Gut, say hi to everyone, and everyone say hi to Will's Gut. In a year like this, there are many names that are sandwiched together that all could be good fits for different teams for different reasons, and there are always picks completely out of left field that are almost impossible to predict, but rest assured that in my view, if your team picks the #8 name on my list at #3, don't freak out. This is a very, very weird draft year with plenty of great talent to be had and I hope we all just have fun welcoming these young guys into the NHL. This exercise is also meant to be fun! I'm sure some crazy, unexpected stuff is going to happen, and some things that go against the grain of history will also happen, so let's all just enjoy the calm before the storm, and tinker with what these NHL teams could be adding to their pipelines.

1st Overall - Buffalo Sabres
Will Pick - Matthew Beniers
Gut Pick - Owen Power

Will's Take: To me, this is a no-brainer. Beniers may not be quite NHL ready, but if the Sabres want to get deeper up front, and provide more impact players at both ends that can hopefully ignite some of the pure goal scorers like Olofsson and Skinner. If Eichel and Reinhart can be convinced to return, and Beniers has a strong summer to build some strength to resist better competition, you might have a piece that can really turn you in the right direction in many, many areas of the game.

Will's Gut's Take: Will has many thoughts on Owen Power, but this one is starting to look obvious. He's been solid at the World Championships, he's being ranked #1 more and more often from establishment sources, and the upside is undeniable. It's a perfectly fine selection at #1, but absolutely not if you think Power is a dependable NHL defenseman next year without getting significantly more comfortable on his huge frame. If the Sabres want to play the long game, and names like Eichel, Ristolainen and Reinhart are not to return, sending Owen Power back to Michigan feels like the right move, and the patience could be rewarding. The big hurdle will be getting comfortable on his frame at NHL pace, especially beyond making the simplest of plays effectively at that pace.

2nd Overall - Seattle Kraken
Will Pick - William Eklund
Gut Pick - Matthew Beniers

Will's Take: Seattle is a massive question mark and it'll be very interesting to see which direction they go from the start. Could it be Owen Power here? Maybe, and it could make sense as Seattle is in no rush for major success, and the choice between Power jumping to the NHL to learn on the job, or go back to college to have a dominant D+1 year feels less risky. Personally, I just have Power ranked low, Eklund ranked at 2, and at his core, William Eklund is just really good. He's a player that drives offensive play so well from the boards with pace, skill, speed, and produces extremely well for an SHL player. It may not be the most impactful position, but in my view, Eklund could be a first line scorer with line drivers playing with him, it's just a matter of finding those in other ways than through the 2021 NHL Draft.

Will's Gut's Take: I can't see Beniers getting past Seattle, I just can't, and to me, it's a great spot for them to be in if this happens. Beniers is just a rock solid hockey player all around. He works his tail off, he's skilled in open ice, he's an excellent playmaker, and I feel that the only barrier to being a reliable, 200-foot NHL centre is being a bit slight on his frame and having trouble imposing on his opponents, which came out a bit in my World Championship viewing. I'm a huge fan of Beniers and believe he could anchor a line in the NHL quickly. He's supportive of defenders, he's agile and unpredictable through the neutral zone, he battles in the corners to release pressure selflessly, and his pass vision in the offensive zone makes him one of the best creators of shot attempts I've tracked this year.

3rd Overall - Anaheim Ducks
Will Pick - Luke Hughes
Gut Pick - Brandt Clarke

Will's Take: When I look at Luke Hughes in June 2021, and Owen Power in June 2020, I cannot help but feel like if I had to pick between the two at identical ages, I'm taking Luke Hughes. There's almost a full year of extra runway there, and I see a player who took massive steps in his skating power and confidence with the puck since last year, and while I have issues with his defensive zone entry defense and consistency to use his frame to separate pucks, the potential is undeniable. A pair of Drysdale/Hughes for the next number of years would certainly help the Ducks get back to competing with a new identity of skill, creativity, and offense from the backend.

Will's Gut's Take: See above, but I just feel that Brandt Clarke might be a bit more up their alley. A solid option for a dump and chase style offense who can get set up along the blueline to work his magic, Clarke may not have the wheels of a Hughes or Power, but the skill, vision in the offensive zone, pivoting ability and neutral zone positioning should translate, especially if he can gain more confidence moving pucks himself with confidence through the neutral zone.

4th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Will Pick - Brandt Clarke
Gut Pick - Luke Hughes

Will's Take: I dunno, I just feel like Clarke is a good fit for the Devils. He isn't the offensive rush QB we love to see with the puck on his stick, but he's a capable positional rush defender with excellent aggression and skill in the offensive zone. If the gameplan is getting Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier the puck across the defensive blueline and trailing into the offensive zone to participate in their offense, then sign me up. Owen Power is still available in this universe, and I get the feeling the Devils wouldn't let him through, and I have time for a Clarke/Power discussion, but Clarke gives them a more offensive leaning weapon that I think could offset the brand of defense they've largely drafted in recent years.

Will's Gut's Take: Will might've sent Luke Hughes to Anaheim a pick before, but I'll bite. It'd be really neat to see the offensive 1/2 punch of Hughes and Ty Smith on the Devils, surrounded by a litany of big, mean, rangy defenders like Kevin Bahl and Shakir Mukhamadullin. Do I think it's the best strategy for NHL success? Who cares! You've got a dynamic, offensively confident defender to unite with his brother Jack who can quarterback an offensive rush and run a power play. The defensive game needs work as mentioned before, but sure, I could absolutely see the Devils taking on Luke Hughes, giving him a year to grow and mature, and seeing him in the NHL relatively quickly. I'm also thinking that if they would prefer more of another brand of defender, Simon Edvinsson could easily slot in as a Devil, and I could see him bringing legitimate defensive stability to a young team, with the upside of becoming a fascinating two-way impact player with improvements to his puck management and agility on his giant frame. Still, I'm leaning Hughes when push comes to shove.

5th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Will Pick - Fabian Lysell
Gut Pick - William Eklund

Will's Take: I admit that I am a fanboy for Fabian Lysell game, and drafting him above Owen Power feels like something Columbus wouldn't do, but this is the team that swung on Yegor Chinakhov in the 1st round last fall. The draft is wild and unpredictable, so who knows. Maybe this happens and I wouldn't be upset. If Jarmo Kekalainen wants skilled players who play with tenacity, energy, and hunger, Lysell has it in spades. There's the possibility that Columbus could take Power and still land Lysell with one of their later picks in this round, but if you ask me, not only do I not want to take that risk knowing what I know today, but I also genuinely enjoyed Fabian's game and think there's just as much upside here as a few other names available.

Will's Gut's Take: William Eklund can't go later than 5 can he? Eklund would be an injection of offense into the post-Tortorella Blue Jackets, and while their depth down the middle isn't great, you ideally don't draft for need, and both Will and I agree that Eklund absolutely should be considered one of the top five players available this year. He won't be a universe-altering talent, but he'll provide a boost to a team that needs one. And plus, if it isn't Eklund because you want a centre, the alternative are objectively a step down from Eklund's pure offensive skill.

6th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Will Pick - Owen Power
Gut Pick - Kent Johnson

Will's Take: Steve Yzerman doesn't really think twice about this. Owen Power is a really solid pickup that solidifies a talented future defense group, and Detroit can afford to be somewhat patient, but expectations will be key. He brings north/south mobility and an offensive side to the game, as well as the talent to quarterback a power play, and if by some crazy chance Power isn't going in the first five picks, this one is relatively straightforward for the Red Wings.

Will's Gut's Take: Yzerman is not afraid of big swings, and Johnson is a big swing. Arguably one of the most purely skilled players in the entire draft with the upside to be potentially the most productive winger to come out of this draft, Johnson is a tantalizing option. He could very easily be gone well before now, but with him being in Detroit's backyard, and while Edvinsson and Lysell are high end Swedes that I could see being their target as well, Johnson brings potential that could really give the Red Wings offense a shot in the arm in a year or two.

7th Overall - San Jose Sharks
Will Pick - Jesper Wallstedt
Gut Pick - Fabian Lysell

Will's Take: They need a goalie, they drafted a ton of offensive skill last year, and while a defender or centre might make sense here, you're talking picking between a stable but flawed defender in Simon Edvinsson, a big wild card in Aatu Raty, and a player with potentially limited upside in Mason McTavish. Now, I like McTavish, and if that's the name here, I get it, but Wallstedt is a decent bet with those names as alternatives. The Sharks are a team that may not be picking much later than 7th in 2022, and can be patient while their prospects develop a bit further.

Will's Gut's Take: On the other hand, San Jose has been drafting speedy, pacey, fun players for years now, and may just jump the gun and draft Lysell here. He's a ton of fun, with remarkable two way impact and potential for growth offensively. The Sharks aren't afraid of what many would call "personality issues", and Lysell seems to be coming with some kind of baggage, but I think it could be a great match for the competitive and rambuncious skilled winger.

8th Overall - Los Angeles Kings
Will Pick - Simon Edvinsson
Gut Pick - Dylan Guenther

Will's Take: Similar to San Jose, the Kings have focused on drafting skill often with their high picks, and Edvinsson, while not the flashiest player, and certainly not without issues, is a player that adds defensive stability and offensive potential that could be a great add to the massive stable of future talent in grey and black. Kent Johnson would be a nice alternate here, and I wouldn't complain if that was who it was, but Edvinsson would be a rock solid piece to add to a back end featuring other Swedes like Tobias Bjornfot, and Helge Grans, as well as other defenders Jordan Spence, Brock Faber, and Kim Nousianen.

Will's Gut's Take: I mean the idea of the Kings adding a skilled, creative winger that can make plays for the other finishers they've drafted and acquired over the years like Kaliyev, Fagemo, Chromiak, and to an extent, Carl Grundstrom if he raises heck in front of the net is neat enough. It's a simple line of thought, and perhaps adding a defender like Edvinsson would make sense, but it would also be the first defender drafted in the first round for LA since 2010, and they seem to prefer skill and offensive upside at almost every pick, and me, The Gut, seems to think that trend will continue.

9th Overall - Vancouver Canucks
Will Pick - Kent Johnson
Gut Pick - Mason McTavish

Will's Take: The idea of Kent Johnson at 9th overall, with the potential to hit his ceiling with the legitimate offensively talented youth in Vancouver is absolutely terrifying. There's risk with Johnson, but around here, and for the Canucks? I feel like he could be an excellent fit. Podkolzin out there raising hell in front and clearing space with Johnson feeding pucks around the ice sounds just dandy to me. The Canucks could probably use a defender here but you'd be looking at a Lambos, Chayka, Ceulemans or a Stanislav Svozil, and for all the concerns I may have about Kent, I'm not passing on Kent Johnson for one of those guys. The Canucks need to keep adding at almost every position, and Johnson is an offensive catalyst with massive potential to drive offense through his playmaking paired with names like Pettersson.

Will's Gut's Take: I've just got a great feeling about the potential for McTavish to turn into a perfectly servicable, offensive leaning centre who can get a bit grimy if need be, and Vancouver seems to value that archetype. He has rounded out his game significantly since last season, and has clearly gotten much more comfortable in the Swiss 2nd division. He's got skill, he can run a play off the boards, attack the net, he works off the puck, he's mobile, there's a lot to really like, even if he isn't likely to dominate. With names like Horvat, and the brand of player Jim Benning has brought in through free agency, McTavish could be an addition that's more up his alley than some of the more offensive skill leaning names available like Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius, or Aatu Raty.

10th Overall - Ottawa Senators
Will Pick - Mason McTavish
Gut Pick - Simon Edvinsson

Will's Take: As The Gut said in it's 9th pick writeup, McTavish feels like a player the Senators would covet if he were available and Vancouver passes on him. It appears he may not even make it as far as 9, so this all may be moot, but McTavish's well rounded game and physical intensity really scream "DJ Smith". In this universe, Guenther is available and the Senators are picking him, but McTavish's versatility and fit with his style of play pushes him past Guenther a smidge. There may be more projectable production potential with Guenther, but McTavish should add a solid piece to a strong core, and he has played centre at times, which is conveniently a position of need in the future for the Senators.

Will's Gut's Take: They've drafted Sanderson, acquired Brannstrom, they stole Mete, they've got Chabot, and if by some miracle Simon Edvinsson is available at 10, the Senators could very quickly turn into a very interesting defense crop once Sanderson comes over likely after next season. Edvinsson also strikes me as an interesting piece for that DJ Smith brand Will talked about. He's got strong defensive acumen more often than not, and if his puck management comes along and he gets more comfortable surveying the ice and executing his decisions, the Senators could be a nasty group of defensemen blending skill, defensive stability, and aggressive offense.

11th Overall - Chicago Blackhawks
Will Pick - Dylan Guenther
Gut Pick - Chaz Lucius

Will's Take: Seeing Dylan Guenther at 11 and my gut taking Simon Edvinsson at 10 just goes to show how, no matter what, most teams in this range are almost guaranteed to get a player at least some people will be shocked is still available. For the Blackhawks, Guenther is a no-nonsense pick that boosts their offense and could fit in well with recent picks and young stars like shooters Lukas Reichel and Alex DeBrincat, and participate in offensive rush play with names like Kirby Dach. Perhaps a Carson Lambos, Stanislav Svozil, or even a Scott Morrow fills a bit of a need on defense in their pipeline, but similar to Johnson earlier, I can't say not to the idea of swinging on Guenther's awareness and patience-based offensive game.

Will's Gut's Take: Chicago, NTDP... Chicago... NTDP... The Blackhawks have drafted at least one NTDP player in each of the last five drafts. They took the plunge on Reichel last year, and with the character and pedigree that Lucius brings, and the excellent finishing ability, I can't help but see Lucius with Chicago. He's powerful on his edges, if not the fastest of pacey-est player on the Earth, but if you've got guys draped on him, or the puck is bouncing around medium danger areas, he'll find a way to make a play. His ability to shovel pucks in front is underrated and rarely rewarded as assists, and while I'm skeptical of how much his game translates at 5v5, he has had injury issues this season and showed significant improvement. If that improvement continues, the Blackhawks could add an excellent offensive centre to pair with Kirby Dach.

12th Overall - Calgary Flames
Will Pick - Logan Stankoven
Gut Pick - Carson Lambos

Will's Take: This one is steamy, but I would love to see Logan Stankoven in a Flames jersey. He's a skilled, high energy winger who is constantly a thorn in the side of his opponent, and his tracked data I have so far is absolutely gobsmacking. He's small, but don't underrate his work rate, and he's both a capable scorer and a capable playmaker. His play under pressure is also better than expected, and I have a hard time not seeing him be a fascinating pick here. Calgary loves these grindy guys, and they also value skill without fear of size, especially later in the draft. This guy is both, he's fun, and he brings a contagious effort level that should get the Flames back in order once he joins the team.

Will's Gut's Take: Corson Ceulemans comes to mind as perhaps an alternate here, but when looking through my tape to make my most recent draft rankings, Lambos is the player I don't think I was giving quite enough credit to. He's highly mobile laterally and active defensively, able to quickly turn play around, and while his offensive output may be somewhat limited, and he may not have had the season you'd expect from an elite prospect, he still was effective on JYP's power play, and showed strong, mature defensive instincts coupled with strong mobility that should help replenish an aging Calgary group in the coming years.

13th Overall - Philadelphia Flyers
Will Pick - Fyodor Svechkov
Gut Pick - Matthew Coronato

Will's Take: The last time Philadelphia drafted a Russian first, it was German Rubtsov, and as much as I liked him in 2016, his career has been marred with injury and instability. I still think the Flyers will see what I see in Fyodor Svechkov and I'd certainly put his name forward as a great flyer in the future. He's smart at both ends, well refined for a centre with a great sense of awareness for his linemates, and with some of the firepower and skill Philadelphia has on the fringes, Svechkov could be a great option to anchor and stabilize those styles of player.

Will's Gut's Take: Yeah, but what if Fyodor Svechkov was American? The Flyers haven't gone with a Russian in the first round since 2016 and you just said it didn't go well, so why risk it again? Coronato is a great example of hockey sense, with a great natural feel for the game, no fear of pressure, the capability of playing any forward position, and a nice blend of skill, efficient offense, and while not the highest pace player, I've seen him manage pressure in creative ways that might appeal to NHL teams. He may not be a gamechanger, but it feels so very Flyers to draft a rock solid forward option hailing from a rival market two picks before the Rangers, and having him become a dependable option in the middle of their future lineup.

14th Overall - Dallas Stars
Will Pick - Simon Robertsson
Gut Pick - Cole Sillinger

Will's Take: Dallas loves drafting skill and is not afraid of guys that may have issues generating speed in a straight line if they have other areas that make up for it. Jason Robertson seems to be doing okay, Riley Tufte, not so much, but I can't shake the feeling that Robertsson is more of the former than the latter. He's smart, skilled, selfless, creative, and can blast a hockey puck. I've really enjoyed watching him play, and with improvements on his feet to get quicker going north/south, Robertsson's other skills should show themselves more often. Plus, it's another Robertson/Robertsson, and for all we know, this might be all we need to know about projecting hockey prospects.

Will's Gut's Take: I think Will is starting to lose it a bit. Cole Sillinger is up the same alley with a great shot, nifty skill to create space in the offensive zone, and if the expectation is that Sillinger doesn't carry a line on his own, he could be an excellent scoring option. His playmaking is underrated and didn't come out much this year, and his puck management and awareness of linemates is iffy, leading to poor passing metrics, but the guy gets chances and buries them. Doing it with raw skill and potential pace concerns really point to the Stars in my view.

15th Overall - New York Rangers
Will Pick - Aatu Raty
Gut Pick - Zachary L'Heureux

Will's Take: I can't let Aatu fall this far. In my heart of hearts, he's gone before 15, but I can totally understand why he might be a player teams in this range might have as their alternate option, and are just too spooked by his cratering production over multiple seasons. I'm personally not concerned, as through all these issues, he is now on record as being a young player working through how to manage the expectations on his shoulders, and in my tracking, he was still extremely efficient in a number of areas, showing great potential in others. I've watched a lot of Finnish junior hockey, and Raty's games down there were very illustrative of what he's capable of when he's confident and has his head in the game. Is he the kid gripping his stick too much? It seems so right now, but working through it and getting comfortable again in his level of play is going to make or break his NHL upside. I'm a believer, and I'd start bringing his name up as the Top-10 came to a close, but if he slips much further than this, it's starting to get into no-brainer territory.

Will's Gut's Take: I had a burrito last night. I'm feeling tumultuous. It's a new regime in New York so who knows what's actually going to happen, but the Rangers seem to bounce between physical players and skill players, and often bridging that gap. Does Gorton and Davidson leaving indicate more of a lean in one way or the other? We'll have to see. Considering those two were seemingly fired in a situation revolving not being comfortable vocally standing up for a star skilled winger, and with David Quinn being a coach praising hard work and physicality now gone, my hunch is that while the Rangers might not look for pure skill, they may look for a bit more... oomph(?) in their skill. Zach L'Heureux would be a very surprising pick in this range, but it could be a curious pickup for a team looking for a bit of identity. He's a player with discipline issues, but he's also a player with skill and offensive potential on many fronts. He's a top-5 volume and efficiency player when it comes to offensive transitions, he's top five in offensive threat, creating shot attempts, and dangerous shot attempts on the ice both as a team and as an individual. Again, not a player that is going to completely transform that team, but he's a player that could drop into the offense and play a slimy, straightforward game with the capability of annoying opponents. It may be a spicy pick, but it feels very Rangers in a certain way.

Scouching's Post-NHL Draft Lottery Rankings

6/2/2021

Hi everyone and a very happy Pride Month to you all! If you're new here, welcome! If you aren't, welcome back! I've gotten my first COVID vaccine dose, and I highly recommend you all do the same if you haven't already. I hope you all enjoyed the NHL Draft Lottery that went basically how the odds were laid out. Just a quick note that the mock draft is coming soon. This is not that. This is simply my view of the rough groupings of players and the order of preference within those groups where I'd use an NHL Draft Pick. I've gone through my 536 tracked performances across 130 players, and my 133 gigabytes of video clips I've pulled since October and until the draft, I believe the final rankings that will be accompanied by a video next month will look largely the same.

My read on this year's class is pretty straightforward. There is a strong top two tiers of potentially very useful core impact players, but likely not any world-ending players without improvements in certain areas of the game. As the teens become the twenties, I believe there are still quality high upside swings and solid complimentary options, but once the first round begins to wind down, who frickin' knows. It's going to be a horror show and I can't wait. Last year my list encompassed about 70 names that I was legitimately excited about, and while that number is down closer to 60 this year, there are still some fascinating players in the nooks and crannies of global hockey that I'm curious to keep an eye on in the next few years.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above. I would like to thank my Patreon and YouTube Members for the financial support of the project. It gives me life, and I'm thankful every day.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The Watchlist

Welcome to The Watchlist, which are players with data and traits that have caught my eye that may be worth keeping track of, whether they're drafted or not.
Justin Ertel is a big, strong playmaking winger who played in Junior A out in the Maritimes this year, which is hilarious to watch, but he still deserves a spot here. His size, skill and playmaking patience are an interesting combination that could come out should his power and explosiveness improve on his feet during his time at Cornell.
Tyson Galloway is a giant who logged a ton of minutes with the Calgary Hitmen this year and while he's a guy who frustrated me when the time came to make plays with the puck, he's a lovely skater with range, fluidity and skill that leads to great defensive results and potential for improvements with the puck as he gets more experience and confidence.
After doing some research, I read an interview in Sports Illustrated with Owen Bartoszkiewicz, who played in net for an NAHL expansion team, and he's a story I can absolutely get behind. Joining the Wichita Falls Warriors, he faced plenty of rubber and put up solid numbers saving shots in any situation as well as dangerous 5v5 opportunities thanks to InStat data. He has a somewhat strong track record of results, solid size, and seems to be flying under the radar.
Simon Motew was a curious case last year for the Kitchener Rangers with great Pick224 data in limited playing time, but he absolutely obliterated the USPHL this year on the backend. His skill and shot are a great combination, and post-pandemic, a return to Kitchener should do him well. I don't think the production indicates a potential steal in the draft, but he's been a cheat code this season and worth keeping an eye on.
Evan Werner might be the most fun player I've watched this year that is still the biggest longshot of those fun players I've liked. He's very small, but very skilled with a laser beam of a shot that, while I find it tough to project him as an NHL player, a year in the USHL before college, and patience to let him continue working on getting stronger and even quicker could do great things for him.
Malinen, Angesved, and Marha, are all guys that I've liked for their skating, and that's about it. Sometimes that's all you need to make a late round bet, even if they have major issues in other areas of the game.
Iivari Rasanen caught my eye in Pick224 data and his defense-first approach driven by strong skating, aggressive defense, and solid evasive skill to make strong first passes in lead me to believe that he should be a major piece of an underrated Quinnipiac team. He had a strong freshman season and whether or not he's drafted, I'm curious to see where his game goes, as I find that his great results weren't a matter of luck.
Bogdans Hodass took Gustavs Ozolins' spot on this list after the U18 tournament. I hadn't seen him play prior, but I came away impressed with his rangy mobility, flashes of skill under pressure and a great shot from the point. Again, this is the watchlist. He's a name I'm curious about, but I went in really thinking Ozolins would be their big time player, but Hodass to me showed more projectable skills.

Tier 7 - The Cupcake Zone

Evan Nause has some of the worst tracked data of any defenseman I've tracked this year, but I could easily see why he could be picked in the first two rounds. His skill under pressure and evasion ability to find new lanes and escape the defensive end are interesting and better than many, but the rest of the equation to me is largely negative. He's a player I think will be drafted well before I'm ready to pull the trigger, but with patience, there could be an interesting problem-solving defensive defender there.
Dario Sidler looked pretty wonderful at the U18 for Switzerland, and while I'm almost confident he won't see NHL ice, I can't not put the idea out there that the quick, skilled, rambunctious little defender from Z U G may juuuuuuust get there some day. He's extremely ineffective on defensive rushes, and while he's amicable with the way he hurls himself at players along the boards, he's a player who has played both sides on defense as well as a game as a winger in my tracking. He had a gorgeous primary assist from the boards in his first National League game, and his puck skill, agility, quickness, and fun factor are tremendous. He didn't look out of place in this cohort, and didn't get completely filled in against grown men in Switzerland, so I hope his lack of size only holds him back temporarily, because a 5'7" defender pulling and hurling pucks around an NHL ice surface would certainly be an experience.
Conner Roulette is one that I just can't not rank, but I question his upside. He's got skill, he escapes pressure in ways that dumbfound me, but he gets his chances. His U18 was fine, but the games I've tracked show an interesting perimeter playmaker who takes the foot off the gas defensively a bit more than I'd like. His creativity and skill are pretty neat and might be worth a bet if he's available after the first few rounds.
Kalle Vaisanen didn't have a great U18 in terms of role or impact, but boy... This is an interesting player with an archetype unlike most in the draft. He's huge, but skilled and somewhat mobile, but his bread and butter is punishment. He will get you. He drives very good results in my tracking, even if his passing involvement and non-offensive zone involvement are somewhat limited. He still go out on ice and crush, and in a way that I think could be beneficial to an NHL program. My gut tells me the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets will do their homework on this dude.
Arcuri and Voit have had my eye all year, but they've also been good in my limited eyeballs on the PBHH tournament so they're on here.
Janis Moser in the National League this year has been a pleasant surprise, so shouts out to Thibaud Chatel for mentioning him on the Chasing High Danger Podcast. He's got solid reach, mobility, but above all, he's safe in the best way. His route selection and skill to create easier passing lanes result in great on-ice impacts driven through strong defense and flashes of aggression in the offensive zone to attack the middle. He's a D+3, but he plays like he earned a captaincy, and I could see some kind of NHL defender there in the somewhat near future, which automatically makes him valuable to a certain extent.
Yeah, Gerasimyuk was bad for 5 minutes at the U18, but I've seen him plenty behind a not-good Variyagi team in the MHL facing shot after shot, and keeping his team in continuously. European goalies who are not small, and get good practice facing pucks in strong systems with years of good results check a lot of boxes for me. As a late round swing, you could probably do much worse and buy low on the guy who struggled briefly and landed on the bench.

Tier 6 - Curious Cases and Such

Danila Klimovich's skill and shot combo are real high level and since the U18s, he has shot up boards. I honestly can't say he doesn't deserve to be ranked, and while I think a top two round ranking is a bit much considering the limitations of his game elsewhere, he should get picked, probably will get picked, and with time, could become a useful sniper down the road.
People ask me about Kisakov all the time, and I know why. He's scoring a lot in the MHL, and I've tracked quite a few games, but I still don't know what to think. He's got some skill, he isn't slow, he gets to the front of the net, but I'm not sure there's enough outside of him being a pace-pusher in a league with no pace. He's inconsistent earning offensive transitions with control, shows mixed results defensively, but overall he drives solid results. He's a weird one. I can see why he'd be a first round pick to some teams, but my gut tells me he's a hard one to project.
Yeah, the Zach's are in here. I have much more time for Zach Dean than Zach Bolduc, to be honest, but I think Dean's game is hard to project to the NHL. He's skilled, agile, creative and slippery, but in three of four games I've tracked, he has struggled to consistently drive play, struggled to escape pressure, struggled to consistently get pucks to linemates, and as an NHL player, it's possible to see it work out, but I'm more favorable to him as a 2nd or 3rd round skilled winger to bet on.
On Zach Bolduc, he's only a bit behind Dean, but I just don't know. If Bolduc is your team's first round pick, I really hope his results take a turn in the next couple of years. He shoots from low danger constantly, he doesn't get pucks inside much at all, he's efficient in offensive transitions and mobile on his feet, but his fundamental ability to hit targets can be questionable, he doesn't complete many of his dangerous pass rates, and he is one of the most passive and ineffective defensive rush defenders I've tracked. He has positive traits, but as a whole, he's a tough one for me to get behind.
Samu Salminen scores a ton, scored a ton at the U18, but I'm not sure the offense follows him to the NHL. His body weight gives him speed generation with his turns, but his pace, skill, and straight line speed, are questionable. His sense of awareness and ability to make simple, no-nonsense plays that put points on the board is what drives his production, but I'm not surprised there's a bit of a mismatch between his placement on rankings and his production/size profile.
Lorenzo Canonica, Robert Orr, and Jackson Blake are small, rambunctious players who all come with skill, creativity, and offensive potential. Canonica is one of the most heavily involved defensive forwards I've tracked, and is often effective and causing issues for opponents. All these players have the benefit of youth as well, and with patience, they could all turn into interesting projects.
The other young player, Oliver Kapanen, is a player more driven by intelligence and efficiency. I wasn't surprised to see a bit of an exposure to his lack of pace and dynamic ability in the U18 tournament, horrific incident aside. He's crafty and smart, drives good results getting into the right place at the right time, but if you're expecting Kasperi Kapanen 2.0, he is not that.
I just want to extend a note to Cole Jordan as well. He's a quick, rangy defender with solid defensive traits, and the potential to be a remarkable offensive rush quarterback, but you just don't see it very often. Nobody makes more pass attempts than him, but 81 players complete more passes than him on average. He defaults to dumps and weak passes to nobody far more often than he should, but taking things into his own hands and driving an offensive rush should be doable with his strength and mobility.

Tier 5 - The T a k e Zone

Here's where things get a bit spicy. These are the names that are a combination of somewhat limited ceilings but solid floors of talent in names like Harrison, Kirsanov, Othmann, and Chayka, and high risk/high reward options that scream fun factor like Kuzmin, Almquist, Gustafsson, Behrens, Tschigerl, Tichacek and Duke.
I love watching Dylan Duke. He's aggressive, quick, gets to the net and drives results. He's an energy guy, but he produces. I think a team willing to look past his frame will be rewarded with a hard working player who can get the job done in crunch time through both net front shot generation and underrated playmaking. He's part of the 30+ club in offensive threat (dangerous shooting combined with dangerous passing), and sits fourth in that metric, with the 3rd highest rate of dangerous shots for.
On the other hand, I feel as though Dylan Duke outshines Sasha Pastujov on a shift-by-shift basis. Pastujov is slow, inactive defensively, but brings excellent practical skill under pressure and crafty, slippery playmaking at his own pace. I question the NHL upside, but he's young, has time to develop, and if his skating and pace grow, he could be a nice pickup late. At the same time, he's taking 70% of his shots from low danger, so that's not ideal, and he only completes 42% of those dangerous pass attempts. Duke on the other hand takes 73% of his shot attempts from dangerous areas and completed 63% of his dangerous pass attempts.
Speaking of the NTDP, Sean Behrens is perplexing. I think there's upside there, but his quickness and agility without the puck is an issue, as he can get left behind on defensive cycles and is among the worst suppressors of dangerous shot attempts that I've tracked, leading to a 41% DSAT%. His skill and offensive creation, as well as his positional neutral zone defense are interesting, but he's a small defender who might struggle to project.
Lukas Gustafsson is a fascinating one. I see a ton of potential with him. Yes, he's a prep kid who had limited USHL exposure, but relative to other viewings of Steel defenders, Gustafsson should've been a mainstay on that team. His lateral mobility to cover ice is excellent. His skill level is very high and he uses it to create space and deceive opponents extremely well. He's aggressive with his offense, sometimes to his detriment, but I feel like letting him make mistakes and learn, while letting him try to refine the offensive side of the game could be greatly rewarding. He's apparently returning to be a top defender for the Steel next year, and I expect if he's not drafted his year, that eyeballs will be on him next year. I just really, really like this guy's game and as a late round swing, you could do much worse.
Olen Zellweger and Aleksi Heimosalmi have shot up my list, especially after the U18. Zellweger really only shows weaknesses with generating quick speed in pressure situations, and beginning offensive rushes, but the games I've tracked have been extremely promising with one game being extremely bonkers. Heimosalmi's skill and skating combination, as well as his sense for gap management and stick checking are impressive. Both players will need to be stronger and even better on their feet, but they're promising undersized defenders.
Speaking of undersized, Dmitri Kuzmin? Tons of fun, slick skill, great at the U18. No surprise to me. Jiri Tichacek? Not so great, but not bad at the U18, and also tons of fun that I believe could be a solid defender with time and patience. Marcus Almquist is a player who has so much talent, but not much of a feel for the game in a unit. He's skilled, quick, covers a tremendous amount of ice, and just a ton of fun to watch regardless of when he's playing. He's a guy who isn't doing a whole lot except zipping around open ice, but when he gets the puck, he has some high skill, high fun moments that make him a very interesting pickup.
I bumped Jake Martin down a bit after going through my tape, and I certainly think you could land him as a solid defensive option much later than the 2nd round. He's got a ways to go to improve, but he's been flying under the radar for the NTDP this season and has been impressive in my work.
Ryder Korczak... I don't know. I've seen very little improvement over last year, and if anything there has been regression. He's a great creator of shot assists, and rock solid offensive transition player, but that's where things end. Those shot assists aren't going to the middle of the ice, and that transition data is far less favorable on the other side of the puck. Moose Jaw doesn't produce dangerous chances with him on the ice, and he's taking 80% of his attempts from low danger in my work. It's a tough call to me. I think there's potential with his quickness and flashes of skill, but I just don't know what's going to happen with him on draft day.
Brent Johnson and Jack Peart are big names I've really enjoyed. Peart is a bit more involved in offensive rushes, but far less effective, while Johnson is more involved defensively, more aggressive with his offensive threat, and more efficient defensively. Peart's deception and vision with the puck through the NZ is really intriguing and if his ability to manage gaps and cleanly execute on his passes to mantain control on more offensive transitions will be good next steps for him. They're both fascinating players to watch, and I'm excited to see where they go next month.
On the right day, William Stromgren would be a tier higher. I've seen him play on the right day before, but I also have seen him largely fade into the background, allowing linemates to take up too much responsibility while he awaits the game to come to him. He's a wonderful package of fluid skating, evasive skill, offensive aggression and creativity, and I will bet on what players show me at their best, so if Stromgren's name comes up as high as 25 or so, you have my interest. He's a curious one, and I am a fan, but inconsistencies are there.

Tier 4 - A Bunch of Hockey Players

I got on the Ayrton Martino train, but have slowly come back to Earth. I believe he's a first round talent offensively, and there's a report coming soon on him, but I think there's a ton of potential with his creativity, skill, and effective offensive game per puck touch.
Sebastian Cossa? I dunno, he's huge, has stopped pucks for years, outperformed his xGA according to InStat, and seems to be excellent tracking pucks with lateral mobility staying square to pucks and locked into his technique. My gut tells me he's legit, but I'd let my goalie people help me take the chance on him.
Scott Morrow is one of the highest ceiling defenders in this draft in my opinion. He's skilled, rangy, daring with the puck and while he was punching below his weight class with Shattuck St. Mary's, his USHL time was far better than his 0 points would indicate.
I tried to hold back on Matthew Coronato for a while, but he just kept getting better and better every time I saw him. He played every forward position, and while he was playing with overagers and I think his production is a bit inflated, he's extremely smart, practical, has a great feel for the game, and just keeps putting up results in a variety of areas. 20% of his team's shot attempts with him on the ice are Coronato from danger, good for 6th in my tracking. 2nd in OCZT%, 3rd in COZT/60, top 20 in dangerous shot attempts/60 and involvement at both bluelines going either direction. He's all over the ice driving solid results, especially in the offensive direction, and with improvements to his speed, and comfort with that higher pace, he could be a heck of an all-around forward.
There's a report coming on Ville Koivunen coming, but rest assured, I think he's very good. One of the smartest and most selfless players that you'll rarely notice unless you're really paying attention, but he's just effective and makes everyone's life a little easier. He exudes team play, got better as the year went on and I'm all about players like that.
I've gone back and watched the Lambos tape I pulled and definitely see more there than I was giving him credit for, so Carson, I apologize. Is he a top pick as he was early in the year? Probably not. Is he a 2nd round pick? Definitely not. He's mobile laterally unlike many in the draft, involved in play constantly, and from a defense-first perspective that rewards him with some production, there's a lot to like. One of the most active defenders in transitions going both ways, he oddly shows up in the data like a Jack Peart-brand of impact player, but just... more good. More active offensively, more active defensively, equally active with his passing, but more offensive threat. He enters the OZ with control 19% of the time which is among the worst I've tracked, but if your team really loves the idea of a dump and chase offense, his defensive ability and skill might be a worthwhile bet in the first round.
Stanislav Svozil is a player I'd love to hop in a time machine and see play in 2026. I don't know what he's going to be, but there are a lot of interesting tools that seem to have been overlooked due to lacklustre international performances. Svozil is mobile, refined on defensive rushes with his gap control and physical imposition, and while his OCZT% was poor, similar to Lambos, much of that comes from dumping pucks into the offensive zone, and iffy pass execution on stretch passes. If he can settle down a bit on the ice, get more confident at high levels of play, and work on his skill and agility at low pace, he could be a truly impressive dynamic defender at both ends. He might be a player available on Day 2, and could be a curious project pickup for a rebuilding team.

Tier 3 - The Consolation Prizes

So you missed the playoffs and didn't win the lottery and you aren't the Arizona Coyotes. That's really too bad, but any one of these players are great adds. They aren't that far behind the group ahead of them, but it's still a step back to me.
I absolutely adore watching Logan Stankoven. His WHL data I tracked was staggeringly good in the offensive direction, and at times even defensively. He's an exceptionally hard worker who can chain together tremendous offensive shifts and absolutely smash his enemies into the ground. I mean, the guy is #1 in offensive threat, completing dangerous passes, creating or taking shot attempts for his team, #2 in DSAT%, DSAT/60, and top 10 in the percentage of his team's shot attempts that are taken by Stankoven from danger, controlling offensive transitions, and the percentage of his passes that are dangerous. He's one of the rare players that you know exactly what you're getting every time he steps on the ice, and he will absolutely be a player that makes bigger players think twice about underrating his tenacity, strength and work rate. I could write all day about him and still have more to say, and I think he absolutely belongs as high on my list as he is here.
McTavish will likely be getting a report, but I don't think there's a player that has surprised me relative to last year, and improved as much as he has while in Switzerland this year. Last year, he was largely a shoot-first player, finding open space and ripping pucks into nets without tremendous pace or skating skill, but this year, he's mobile, rambunctious, effective at both ends, and is trying to make plays as much as he's trying to score pucks in a men's pro league. I think the hype train is a little out of control after an impressive U18, but if he's a guy your team reaches a little on in the back half of the Top 10, it might not be the call I make, but it isn't a bad call whatsoever. He can play down the middle, he can play the wing, he can score, he can make a play off the boards, and he's more than capable of getting the puck back if your team doesn't have it. Can't ask for much more in a player, even if there isn't a ton that's necessarily "elite".
Yeah, Simon Robertsson wasn't great often for Sweden at the U18s, but nobody was on that team. They looked slow, disjointed, passive, and conservative offensively. I still believe in what I've seen of Robertsson in Sweden with the skill, intelligence, and flashes of speed and shooting talent that should make him a great pickup. If he's a contending team's pick late in the 1st round, I am a fan of that team.
The Church of Fyodor has been in my life for almost the entire season, and I'm happy to be a ranking member. So smart, so effective, so creative, so much fun to watch in isolation, and a lot of that was on display in Texas. Joining SKA St. Petersburg is a big step for him, and a welcome one because watching Lada Togliatti, uh, sucked.

Tier 2 - Still Tier 1B

ok here's where we get into the steamy takes.
Put these guys in a blender and I'd be happy with basically any order. So much is going to come down to team ethos and fit within their system, as well as managing expectations. Could you run a line through Dylan Guenther? Probably not, but as a complimentary scorer in a top six that can put points on the board? Yep. Could you run a line through Kent Johnson? Probably not, but if you can get him the puck in the neutral zone with speedy, aggressive forwards who can find space in the offensive zone, Johnson could be a monster playmaker with a side of solid goal scoring. Those two are interesting options that I could easily see drafted much higher, but I have my concerns with both.
Yes, I'm still on the Aatu Raty train. Scott Wheeler's excellent profile of him from this week illuminated many things that I had caught onto with regards to his confidence, comfort level, and uncertainty with himself that were very clear to me through his play on the ice. He's a goal scorer who struggles to score goals on paper, but there is so much more to Raty than that. He's a mobile and skilled centre with a solid frame and tons of potential. He was absolutely dominant at the U20 level, and looked much improved post-World Juniors snub. He wasn't getting a ton of help from his linemates, and still managed to get shot attempts off from dangerous areas at a very high rate for a pro player. The signs are there for hope, but I can't ignore the risk if he never figures it out. Still, with his profile, I can't see a world where he isn't some kind of contributor with the fundamentals he possesses.
Brandt Clarke is another one of those time machine players. He consistently struggles to maintain control transitioning pucks offensively, but his abilities in the offensive zone cannot be denied. His ability to shake defenders, step into the offensive zone for better looks, and sustain pressure is remarkable. His fluidity on his feet allows him to cover ice, block lanes, and challenge opponents effectively. He's much less effective shutting down defensive entries, but he's no slouch in that area. I could see him going much higher, but I've got questions that haven't really been answered, even after his excellent U18 tournament.
So, Owen Power was unanimous at #1 on Bob McKenzie's board, and I'm almost certain he'll be gone before 7, but I cannot for the life of me set aside the issues I have seen that plague Power's game at times, and hope that if he's the first name off the board, NHL teams will realistically view him through the lens of both strengths and weaknesses, and put too much on his plate too fast. Yes, he's at the World Championships and doing relatively well, but Power is a player where public reports aren't exactly glowing about what makes him a potential special NHL player, yet still put him at #1 on the hopes of him developing into something he isn't really at the moment. When he gets a head of steam going through the NZ, and when he gets set up in the offensive zone with control of the puck, he can be a monster. Defensively though, he's passive on rushes, but efficient when involved, pucks bleed through him in the defensive zone leading to poor DSATA rates, he invites pressure to himself while surveying the ice, and most concerning of all, his stability and comfort on defensive zone retrievals is at times extremely concerning. I'm sure there's an effective NHL defender there with some power play upside, but he has spooked me for two years now, and in my work, my philosophy, and my gut, I can't make the case for him as the #1 player available.

Tier 1 - The Unchanged.

We've arrived at the top. Neat! A lot of folks might disagree with me on this, and that's cool, and I mean no disrespect to the players ranked behind this tier that are often ranked as the draft's best, but I believe framing the value of players in the draft properly is vital to finding the best possible selection for your team, and these players either have set themselves apart as impact players, or very easily could with some time to develop.
Luke Hughes is nearly a 2022 eligible defender, and the only player outside of Dylan Guenther born in the last six months of draft eligibility in the top two groups. He's skilled, aggressive, ruthless with his offensive approach to a rush, and while there are holes in his game, and I've been alerted to off-ice concerns that have him down on some NHL lists, those holes can be patched with his natural skating talent and skill, and people can mature. The NHL team that picks him will need to be well aware of all the factors at play, and manage them. With patience and care, Hughes could turn into a dynamic offensive defenseman who can quarterback a rush. Why is he a tier above Power? The two are a whole year apart, and after seeing Hughes this year, and Power last year, I'd rather draft Hughes and see where he's at in a year. Yes, Power is playing college hockey, but Hughes is more active in play going both directions, significantly more threatening offensively at 5v5 off his own stick, and I believe has better mobility on his feet in four directions. It's very close, but this is where I lean, personally.
Fabian Lysell at 4? Heck yeah. Yes, his consistent creation ability at 5v5 in the U18 tournament can be questioned, sure. That team wasn't great on the whole and I felt Lysell was one of a small number that legitimately showed up ready to play every game. Teams and scouts might be unsettled with his orchestrated departure from Frolunda. Whatever. The point is, I've seen Lysell play in the J20, SHL, and international level, and if we're in the game of projecting great talent into the future, Lysell is one of the most high octane, high intensity, eff you kind of hockey players you're going to find. His pace and speed are almost too high for his brain to keep up. His quick strike offense in the SHL was there. He was trying to make plays, he was attacking the net, he has skill, he has quickness, he works his rear end off without the puck. I could go on. There's tremendous potential and I can't shake it. He could be as good as he wants to be if he puts in the work, and the right coaches and team systems can help him along. I think he's misunderstood and rightfully deserves a spot in the top group in this year's draft.
If you nail a pick on a goalie and land a franchise piece, job security significantly improves until they leave or retire. Jesper Wallstedt is an 18 year old goaltender who played in 22 of his SHL pro team's 52 games, with a high workload stopping dangerous attempts, and finished with a .908 save percentage. Here are all the other goalies that have ever done that any time in the recent past:
William Eklund is just sick. Buzzsaw player who can cover a ton of ice without the puck, control transitions extremely well with it, drive offense through his playmaking and the odd dangerous attack here and there, and while his second half trailed his first, he could be an excellent scoring piece to add to a team's top six assuming he isn't relied upon to carry a line. Tons of fun to watch, and tons of potential once he gets stronger.
Yep, Matthew Beniers is locked in at #1 to me. I adore watching him play. He's exactly the kind of centre I'd build a line around. Mobile, skilled, high work rate at both ends, selfless with the puck, uses wingers to his advantage, supports his defenders, and while he underperforms at getting shot attempts from inside the dangerous areas (just 30%), he has the potential to be significantly better here, and that was an issue that plagued Michigan almost ubiquitously. He's a glue player, and any NHL team is greatly benefitted from strong glue players. The Buffalo Sabres have a goal scoring weapon in Jeff Skinner for example, and Matty Beniers could be a great piece to at least try to get pucks onto his stick so he can explode them into a net somewhere. Prefer Victor Olofsson? Same goes for him too. Need a guy to support that defense group? Beniers can do that. Is he NHL-ready? I'd certainly consider it, but won't guarantee it. Is he the most likely to be the highest overall impact player in the draft? I believe so.

That's it! Thanks so much for reading. As always thank you so much for all your support, no matter how you do it. Please consider subscribing to any and all platforms where I'm available for more great content. There's a mock draft coming soon, and there's always more videos on the way, but we're getting down to crunch time. Like I said, this draft is likely to be a horror show, but I'm so, so excited to see what happens. I'm ready for the spiciest hockey burrito I've ever eaten, and I hope you all feel the same by the time July 23.

Also, just to reiterate, it'd be great if we all got vaccinated and followed the public health guidelines so we can get through the final stages of this complete nightmare as quickly and effectively as possible. If anything, do it for the heroes who were subjected to the Toronto Maple Leafs effort that will go into the hockey history books on May 31, 2021. They've been through enough, so the least you could do is get jabbed. There's nothing to worry about, the process is efficient, and it goes a long way to helping your community and local businesses get back on track.

Thanks again, and see you soon for more stuff.

The 2021 IIHF U-18 Tournament Recap

5/13/2021

A big reason why I'm such a fan of this tournament is because it can be messy, fun hockey that showcases just how bright the future of this game is. This season was not only no different, but felt like that was ratcheted up to 11 out of 10. Maybe it's the two year period it's been without this tournament, maybe it's the raw talent of the names coming to the NHL in the future, maybe it's that a number of high end players were able to play when they normally wouldn't, maybe it's all of the above, but this tournament was a heck of a show and I wish I could've been there.

I won't waste a ton of time before breaking each team's effort down individually, but I also just want to mention that the U18 to me is just a nice tournament to casually evaluate specific cases, rather than making large judgements regarding a players game. It's short, many players have had tumultuous seasons, and lots of bounces going one way or the other can make a player seem much better or worse, so it's important to be careful when making observations. The way I see it, this tournament was a great experience to see cases who have caught my eye like Dmitri Kuzmin, Aleksi Heimosalmi, Ville Koivunen, and see what happens when their level of play is elevated to high end global talent, and what happens when they're on small ice. In some cases, my thoughts were confirmed. In others, it makes me want to go back and take another look. Which ones were which? Find out below!

10. Germany (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 10
MVP: Bennet Roßmy

I honestly don't really know what to say about the German team from this year. I saw their games, rewatched a bunch in the time since, and I still have a hard time identifying points to take home of any kind. They seemed outmatched in every game, struggled to score, struggled to keep up with the pace, and struggled to keep the puck out of their net. They were there, they showed up, and Bennet Roßmy showed his shot and range here and there.

Roßmy was the guy I had my eye on going into the tournament, and while I came away leaning more towards taking him off my list, he was still a threatening player for the Germans from time to time. Nikita Quapp had some nice moments when tested in net, but I'm really grasping at straws here. I thought Latvia was a more cohesive and talented unit and had there been a relegation round, I imagine the Germans would be against the ropes, but we'll see what they fire back with in 2022. At least Julian Lutz can come back?

9. Latvia (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 9
MVP: Martins Lavins

The Latvians were in tough, and needed to hope for a victory against Belarus or Switzerland to pull off a quarterfinal appearance. Funnily enough, their closest games were against Switzerland and future champions Canada, losing 4-2 in both. I felt the Latvians came to play, but the jump in talent to this tournament for many of these young players was huge. They played as a unit and worked off each other well, but they just had trouble pushing back against high-end opponents and high intensity defensive play.

Gustavs Ozolins was a guy I had my eye on, and while I saw the skill and passing ability on display on breakouts especially, he seemed to have issues taking over play and driving possession consistently. Martins Lavins, Darels Dukurs, and Anri Ravinskis were players who I felt came the closest to truly challenging their opponents, but nobody on this team jumped out at me as "I should be drafted" talents. Lavins gets my MVP for the mobility and pace he brought from time to time, even if he didn't necessarily dominate his team and his opponents. Their effort was admirable, I enjoyed watching them push back against Canada pretty hard, and I do think they'd avoid relegation, but they were in a tough spot to begin with, and their results reflect that. Again, a team where it's hard to write anything extremely constructive, but they were there!

8. Switzerland (1-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 7
MVP: Dario Sidler

Another team where I just shrug my shoulders and want to move on. They beat the Latvians, which should be assumed for a country like Switzerland, but other than that, they were not particularly competitive. Kevin Pasche played well in net, Louis Robin had some nice moments that I caught with some pace and skill, and I did come away curious about Livio Truog for the 2022 draft, but high-scoring names in Switzerland's lower levels were largely nowhere to be found. Reichle, Bougro, Prada, Biasca, all didn't show a whole lot that really moved the needle for me. In my view, this was expected after having watched my fair share of Swiss junior hockey. The Swiss are in a bit of a down period, but Lian Bichsel had some interesting flashes of defensive, physical play so I'll be curious to see what he can do next year.

My MVP was without a doubt the best player on the Swiss team in Dario Sidler. Again, he isn't a player I'd likely take a swing on in the NHL Draft, but if it were pick 224 and a bunch of other names I like are off the board, sure. Why not. I expected him to struggle a bit in this tournament with the defensive gap control and pressure application that I've seen in his experience with Zug, but the offense is there. He's mobile, highly skilled, and sends hard, crisp passes around the ice to push play. Of all the teams covered to this point, Sidler was the biggest standout to me, and I think he turned a few heads. He's obviously remarkably tiny, and he's obviously a longshot, and I will bet that the majority of NHL teams have no interest, but it's hard to deny his results. He led the team in SAT%, he led the team in scoring, he wasn't on the ice for a goal against at even strength, and I'll be curious to see what comes of his career in the coming years.

7. Czech Republic (1-3-0-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 6
MVP: Jakub Brabenec

Every team prior to the Czechs failed to score 7 goals in their entire tournament, so that makes real heavy, detailed analysis tough. With the Czechs, while they scored more, they are still in the same boat where there isn't really all that much to write home about. My guy Jiri Tichacek was... fine? Not great, not terrible, but I can't say I didn't expect a bit more. David Jiricek? Again, fine, but not what I expected. Simon Marha, Jakub Altrichter, and Jakub Brabenec all had moments of speed, skill and resiliency that I liked, but nothing that significantly moved the needle for me, which lines up with my experience with these players going into the tournament.

The biggest name, Stanislav Svozil was largely invisible in my view. I still have him rated in my 1st round for his mobility, skill and defensive maturity, but I really expected the Czech defense group to really be able to drive play and show how deep they are, but unfortunately I didn't see a ton that was particularly notable. Tomas Hamara is a player I've enjoyed in Finland, and he should be back next year, so there's at least that to look forward to, but again, this team gets a shrug from me. They got bamboozled by the Finns, as Finns can do, and they gave up 10 goals against the two teams that ended up in the gold medal final, which tells you a lot of what you need to know.

6. Belarus (2-3-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 8
MVP: Danila Klimovich

Pre-tournament, I called Belarus underrated, and I feel a little bit vindicated. If we're talking teams that maximized their talent level and then some on top, it was Belarus. Dmitri Kuzmin had a coming out party as a legitimate NHL prospect as an offensively skilled defenseman, and of course he pulled out a lacrosse move to score a goal early in the tournament. Tikhon Chayka played well in net, doing what he needed to do to keep his team in it. I felt that if their game against Sweden was played more at 5v5, it would've been significantly closer than it was. They beat Latvia worse than Canada did, and in my view, they put up an impressive performance against Canada that showed that they could at least hang with the big dogs. I didn't expect Belarus to medal, but I also didn't expect Belarus to be down just 3-2 against the Russians going into the 3rd period of their quarterfinal, ending up outshooting them in a 5-2 loss.

It'd be too easy for me to put Dmitri Kuzmin as my MVP, but Danila Klimovich is hard to ignore. His skill with his hands, and pure shooting ability were on display, and well past what I expected going into this tournament. I'm a little skeptical of his legitimacy as an NHL prospect, but I can see him getting a flyer later on. If you can score, you can score, and he did the thing twice as often as any of his teammates.

They've got five players eligible to return, and their U18 and U17 program seem to get better and better over time recently. I'll have my eye out for their team next year, even if it lacks names like Kuzmin, Klimovich, Mikhalyov, and Morozov. The Belarusians were the team I enjoyed watching the most, relative to my expectations, and good on them for their effort this year.

5. United States (1-1-2-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 1
MVP: Dylan Duke

The States were my biggest whiff going into this year's tournament, as I had them pegged as a potential gold medal winner. Well, that did not happen. In fact, the States haven't lose in the quarterfinals at this tournament since I was in elementary school 20 years ago. I didn't think this team would struggle like they did, with three games going to overtime, and a quarterfinal against a Swedish team who decided they wanted to win a game when it mattered, but here we are. The goaltending wasn't great, and the States got exposed for issues that can be shrouded against USHL competition with regard to their pace, skill, and reliance on soft opponent defending to get pucks into the net. Curious names I had my eye on like Gilmartin, Janicke, and St. Louis, were all not much of an impact, Sean Behrens exemplified the issues in his game that may hold him back from serious NHL upside surrounding his puck management, power generation and defensive pressure application at times. While Sasha Pastujov was impressive on the scoresheet as he is all year, and he still cemented himself as a legitimate NHL prospect in my books, I still fail to see a player that can maintain this scoring pace year over year without significant help on the ice with him. Great finishing ability, great skill under pressure to find open ice, but he's a big "I don't know" case study.

I did come away most impressed with Dylan Duke for reasons I expected coming in. He's tenacious, hard on pucks, plays fast, and can be a real nightmare around the net. He was a major driver of play when I saw him on the ice, and while he may not be an NHL scoring threat, I do think there's a rambunctious, energetic winger there that coaches would like to have. He gets to the net, bashes pucks, bashes players, and plays with a fearlessness that helps elevate undersized players like him.

The States did bring along a promising group of 2022 and 2023 eligibles, even if they struggled to move the needle this year. Lane Hutson was the most pleasant surprise to me with skill, speed and aggression that I always love to see. If it wasn't Dylan Duke getting my MVP, it would've been Hutson. Isaac Howard and Charlie Stramel are likely to return next year, and I thought they both played well. If Stramel fills out a bit, he could be a heck of a skilled power forward. Rutger McGroarty is a player I've seen quite a bit this year, and he's a big "we'll see" for next year. He's talented, but I didn't see a tremendous amount in this tournament that made me race to put him higher on my priority list for 2022.

I hope this is just an off-year for the States. Seven players are eligible to come back next year, and names like Cruz Lucius, Seamus Casey, Tyler Duke, Maddox Fleming, and Frank Nazar will be there in 2022, so hopefully they're able to get back to where they've been in the last 20 years.

4. Finland (3-2-1-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 5
MVP: Ville Koivunen

You want to talk about roller coaster hockey, the Finns brought it. Two enormous comebacks, one against the Russians, and another against the Czechs were not out of character for Finland, and they were a heck of a team to watch. Aleksi Heimosalmi confirmed his status as a legitimate NHL prospect, controversially winning defenseman of the tournament, but he was certainly in that conversation. His skill, mobility, and offensive potential were all on display, and I certainly will be going back to track more of him before the draft. I'm still low on Samu Salminen, seven goals aside. His pace is slow, he overpowers junior competition without a ton of skill or speed, and five of his goals came on power plays. Maybe there's a bottom six player for an NHL team there who you can park in the middle of the ice on a power play, but I'm not fond of the idea of using a high pick on the high-scoring Finnish junior player.

There were a lot of eyes on Brad Lambert, and I do believe he showcased the extremely high end raw talent there, but I can't shake the feeling that he's a player who needs to simplify things a little bit to maximize his overall impact on the game. He can put the puck on his stick and skate a few laps around the offensive zone with nobody able to touch him, but if those chances end up with a spin shot from low or medium danger, you aren't likely to score a ton of goals doing that. Finding linemates with seam passing, and being able to push and pull the flow of your game should be next steps for him, but the talent is undeniable.

Samu Tuomaala was a player I had my eyes on going into this tournament, and he came away more impressive than I expected. His natural style of play doesn't feel like it would work in the NHL, with tons of speed, and not much in the way of attack-minded offense, but he sure can shoot the puck, and he shot the puck good in Texas this year. I didn't bump him up my list much, but he certainly looks like a curious case for a team to work with over the next few years.

Kalle Ervasti was a case of "I want to see what he can do outside his club team", and while I thought he played okay when he did play, I was disappointed to see him out of the lineup and struggle a bit. I still believe there's a good defensive player there, so if it means you can get him later, I'm for it. Same goes for the other Kalle, Kalle Väisänen. Viljami Juusola showed off his mobility and reminded me I need to go back and track some more of him as well.

People still seem to be undervaluing Ville Koivunen. He's so crafty and intelligent with his awareness of linemates and ability to take care of the puck. His pure offensive finishing ability came out more than I expected, and I was pleasantly surprised at how much of an impact Koivunen had. If he's still a player teams are sleeping on going into the draft, I'm more than happy to pick him up much later than he should go in July.

The Finns only notable returnee is likely to be Joakim Kemell, who had nice moments here and there, but Topi Rönni, Jere Lassila, and Santeri Sulku are all interesting names to keep an eye on for next year.

3. Sweden (5-2-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 4
MVP: Fabian Lysell

If there were an award for Most Improved Team, Sweden would be the only contender. They looked completely broken, slow, and generally awful to start the tournament. They struggled against Belarus, played like a national team from Mongolia against Canada, and struggled against Switzerland, but as time went on, more and more pieces began falling into place, and Sweden managed to find their stride when it mattered, pushing the powerhouse Americans out of the tournament, and at least competing with an overwhelming Canadian offense until the 3rd period of their semifinal. It's hard to compete when you can't get a save, which was an issue for stretches of the tournament, but the team struggled to generate clean breakouts, struggled to get pucks inside, and struggled to push pace against competitive opponents. The best and worst bits of Simon Edvinsson were on display, with some awful defensive play early in the tournament closing out defensive rushes and struggling with lateral mobility and relying on his reach to counter speed, but he became more of a two-way threat more and more as time went on.

My biggest takeaway for Sweden is the group of 2022 eligibles that I felt showed more consistently, even if they weren't the most effective players on the roster. Ludvig Persson was an exciting presence that I'll have a close eye on next year, as was Noah Östlund. I expected a serious performance from Elias Salomonsson, and while I wouldn't say he played poorly, he wasn't quite as effective as I expected. The fun-factor potential of Mattias Hävelid also was on display as a mobile puck mover, which I'm always interested in, and he's been impressive in my viewings back in Sweden.

Fabian Lysell, in my view was one of a very small number of players that was out there at least trying to drive play and drag Sweden into being competitive from game 1. He can fly, he's creative, he drove offense well, and I still believe that with patience, there could be a tremendous hockey player in Fabian Lysell. He had trouble consistently driving pucks inside, but so did the entire Swedish team. At this point, I'm not sure what else people need to see out of Lysell to consider him an excellent option for this year's draft, but it still feels as though I'm on an island with my view on him.

Isak Rosén did score quite a few goals, and his release really is something. My tracked data on him puts him as one of the better drivers of dangerous shooting off his own stick this season, and that checks out based on this. He struggled to drive the puck really deep into the offensive zone, but his medium range threat was undeniable. The other high end Swedish draft eligible, Simon Robertsson was... up and down. I'd be lying if I said I didn't expect more from him. It really feels like depending on the night, you could get highly different versions of Robertsson. He played well in the bronze medal game, and did improve as the tournament went on, but this is a player I've seen really take over a game, especially at the junior level, and I didn't see that here. If it means he slips in the draft, so be it. Similar to previous names, I'd be happy to land him later than he should go.

All in all, I was happy to see Sweden continuously improve, and while their semifinal ended with 6 goals against in the 3rd period, I still felt that there were positive things to take hom. The future of hockey in Sweden seems bright, and even though there were hiccups and questionable tactical decisions this year regarding line construction and who was getting ice time, I felt the team got better and rightfully earned a bronze medal with a dominant 8-0 over the Finns.

2. Russia (4-1-1-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 3
MVP: Matvei Michkov

Game 1 against the United States brought back the old adage of "never bet against Russian kids playing hockey". They are competitive, play a full 60 minutes, and they go fast. If they get in your head, it can be hard to get them out. The Russians were largely very impressive this year, but were marked by enormous talent coming in the 2022 and 2023 draft. Ivan Miroshnichenko: Legit. Danila Yurov: Legit. Matvei Michkov: lol. Sergei Ivanov immediately took over in net and looked great. Kirill Gerasimyuk did not have a great first start, and never saw the net again, so that's unfortunate, but I can't see how he isn't worth drafting.

Bringing things back to 2021, I thought Prokhor Poltapov played his best hockey I've seen him play. Tremendous physical resiliency under pressure, great skill in transition, and a daring power winger game that I haven't seen consistently this year. It wasn't enough to bump him into my first round, but he was impressive, and I do think this is a player with a reasonably high floor of talent and could make a nice pickup in the second round. Many who are in this world have been on the Svechkov train, including myself, and this tournament indicated why. He was, to me, tremendous. Second best SAT%, put passes out in front, finished plays himself, and drove offensive transitions with control and pace. There's a lot to like about Svechkov, and a lot of it was on display. More eyes may have been on the flashier Chibrikov, and he was better than I expected going in, with more defensive intensity and involvement than I've seen for large parts of this season. He showed off his skill, and pace that gets snuffed out against VHL and KHL competition often, but it was there. I'm still not as high on him as I am with Svechkov, but he made me check myself a bit for sure.

I don't really know what I can say about Matvei Michkov that hasn't been said already. He's a ruthless goal scorer, with a combination of skill, power, determination, and pure shooting talent that is rare at such an age. I mean, he scored over 30 goals with SKA's top junior team. He's sick. He's going to be a high draft pick, and this was his first real public showing of just how talented he could be. Ivan Miroshnichenko is a guy who I think I will latch onto very, very hard next year with his skill, speed, and dual threat offense. He's so much fun to watch and he'll be one of the first names tracked once hockey gets going next year, Plus, six players are eligible to return next year, so I imagine they'll be just as competitive in 2022.

1. Canada (7-0-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 2
MVP: Connor Bedard

Yeah, so, uh, this was a good Canadian team, eh? Ben Gaudreau was great in net for a guy who hasn't played a game all year, and their defense corps were perfectly competent and minimizing chances against, allowing just 12 goals in 7 games, but this was a team dominated by it's offense. Their execution was beautiful, almost every minute they had the puck on the ice. Crisp, tactical deconstruction of sloppy opponents with selfless playmaking that just kept filling nets with pucks. They scored 51 times, and had Shane Wright played in every game, he might've challenged Matvei Michkov's goal scoring lead even more than he did. The guy just has a lightning quick release and can score from almost anywhere. I'm really curious to see how his season with Kingston goes next year.

This is a team that scored 20 goals against the Swedes across two games. They didn't seem to struggle in their gold medal victory, and they constantly kept overwhelming opponents, steamrolling through this year's tournament. I didn't think absolutely everyone on the roster was as dominant as the team as a whole, especially the players with limited playing time this year which is to be expected, but names like Othmann, Zellweger and Pinelli all showed well behind the best of the best on the ice. Mason McTavish and Logan Stankoven definitely showed up, and both should be gone in the first round. One will be because of his tenacity, intensity on the puck, dual threat offense, and projectability, and the other is all of the above, but 5'8", so I expect him to go off the board on day two to some smart team. Brandt Clarke had the great performance I was looking for, and while his performance in the gold medal game wasn't particularly spectacular in my tracking, his control of the game, passing skill, and deception with offensive zone production all showed why he's a top player in this year's draft. I didn't see enough to bump him into my top five, but he is not far off. In fact, he's at 6, and likely locked in around there until July.

And so, we get to Connor Bedard. For anyone not in the loop in the WHL, um, this was a coming out party to say the least. He's a brilliant player who constantly just knows what needs to be done to drive results, and gets away with a ton. He can skate, he can finish, he can make a play, he's selfless when he needs to, he brilliantly draws in defensive pressure, only to defuse it creatively. There's so much to love about Bedard's game that shows exceptionally brightly for the 2023 Draft. I don't imagine he'll be back, as he's dragging Regina into competitiveness, and likely will continue to do so until he's drafted in 2023.

Closing Thoughts

What a heck of a tournament that was, eh? Some absolutely wild Yeehaw Hockey throughout Outside of my misjudgement of the United States going in, things generally lined up as I expected. The Belarusian team came to play, and played relatively well. A bunch of teams get big time shrugs from me, but the Russians, Canadians, Finns, and Swedes as the tournament went on were all exciting with excellent individual performances scattered throughout. The 2022 and 2023 eligibles were the real standouts, and I'm so, so excited to track those classes.

Congratulations to the Canadians for the gold medal win, congratulations to the Russians for a hard fought, competitive performance with a bright future ahead of them, and congratulations to the Swedes for hitting rock bottom and salvaging a medal out of that experience. I always love seeing teams pick themselves up and get back to their proper form, and they deserve some snaps for that. To close, I feel like it's prudent to hand out awards of my own, so here goes, and we'll finish with my All-Star Team. It felt great to have this tournament back, and I'm already looking forward to both the World Championship in Latvia, the Women's World Championship this summer, and the hopeful return of the Women's U18 tournament in 2022! Thanks to the organizers and media who made it all possible, in case you're reading this, and I already can't wait for next year's event.

MVP: Connor Bedard
Most Improved Player: Simon Edvinsson
Best Non-Draft Eligible: Connor Bedard
Best Surprise: Prokhor Poltapov
Best Forward: Connor Bedard
Best Defender: Brandt Clarke
Best Goalie: Sergei Ivanov

All-Star Team
Fyodor Svechkov (F) / Connor Bedard (C) / Matvei Michkov (RW)
Aleksi Heimosalmi (D) / Brandt Clarke (D)
Sergei Ivanov (G)

The 2021 IIHF Under-18 World Championship Preview

4/24/2021

Before we get started, I hope you and your respective families and friends are well. Life is tough for far too many in far too many ways these days. Better days are ahead, but until then, we're all in this together and I hope you're all safe and well.

If you'd like to skip this entire writeup and just look at the data sheet I put together, check it out at this link!

We're here! The IIHF U18 tournament, one of the most underrated that they put on, has finally returned after the 2020 tournament was unfortunately canceled. This year's tournament is an interesting mix of players flying under the radar and high profile names that haven't had much public visibility and I hope you're all as excited as I am to see what happens. There are many strong rosters, and almost across the board, goaltending may be a bit of a weak point for multiple teams, so I'm looking forward to a bit of firewagon hockey, especially considering the volume of players who have extremely small sample sizes.

Before breaking down the teams specifically, I'd also like to note that while the data available paints what I'd consider a relatively solid gauge of the talent on display on a team-by-team basis, a number of teams have players with an extremely limited to nonexistent sample. Teams like Sweden also have a number of players with extremely limited minutes in professional league just to keep them playing through the junior league shutdown, for example. In this piece, the order of the team's is a rough idea of where I think they could finish this season.

NHLeS represents an age, position and league adjusted evaluation of the value of their production, with 20+ being typical first round pick-level production. Inv% is simply the player's points per game divided by team goals per game to get a rough idea of how vital the player's output is relative to their team.

10. Germany - 7.14 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Bennett Rossmy (F)

As much as I love the recent batch of Germans in the NHL draft, the level of talent concentrated between names like Stutzle, Peterka and Reichel doesn't seem to be sustainable. Basically across the board, I can't pick out gamebreaking talents that might be able to keep this team from being under threat of relegation.
I'm curious about 2022 eligible Julian Lutz, playing in a men's pro league with Peterka's youth program in Salzburg, where Peterka was a junior level player at the same age. I can't say I've seen a ton of Lutz, but the track record is positive.
Bennet Roßmy is a big, lanky shooter who I've really enjoyed watching in spurts this year in the German 2nd division. There's pace, and scoring ability to him and I imagine he'll be a focal point for this team to stay alive.
Sebastian Cimmerman is another prototypical quick skilled winger that I've liked in brief Red Bull games I've caught. He's got a good ability to open up the offensive zone with east-west skill and mobility, so I'll keep an eye out for what he can pull off.
It could be a tough year for the German team, and they will need to rely on Nikita Quapp, Red Bull's AlpsHL goaltender who has had good results if they want to work their way up the table in my view. They have the benefit of many players coming from the same program in Salzburg, but a team headlined by premier talent like Stutzle, Reichel and Peterka, this is unlikely to be.

9. Latvia - 4.59 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Gustavs Ozolins (D)

I'll admit that I have a personal soft spot for Latvia, and that may just be what's putting them ahead of Germany here. I always like to check in on what's going on over there, and there are sometimes some bright spots to catch on both their MHL team HK Riga, and the premier youth program in the Latvian pro league HS Riga.
It's likely they'll battle it out with Germany to stay in the tournament, but many players here come from the same program and have played together against professional competition all year back home, which to me, is an advantage. Their goaltenders face a ton of pucks, they lose a lot, but in my view, that's plenty of time to learn from experience.
Gustavs Ozolins is a guy who I've really enjoyed watching this year, and he showed plenty of improvement in his skill, confidence, and offensive output, landing on my watchlist as of late April.
Martins Lavins and Bogdans Hodass are players I've picked up on here and there as well and could be interesting pieces, and while I can't say much about Darels Dukurs, his production is promising in the Swiss junior league, and all this team needs to do is win a game here and there and they may be able to return next year.

8. Belarus - 4.87 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Kuzmin (D)

Belarus is one of the more underrated countries with regards to their youth development and quality of that youth. Names like Maxim Sushko, Yegor Sharangovich, Vladislav Kolyachonok, and Yevgeni Oksentyuk have all been exciting talents coming through the NHL Draft recently with some already making waves in the NHL.
Alexander Suvorov is a notable player that would've been a standout in 2020, but is still eligible for this year's draft, and I've seen very interesting things out of him in the Belrussian pro league. Just noting him because he's probably a player that would've been a major part of this team, as he's been chipping in with the Belarussian men's team here and there during this season.
Danila Klimovich played largely at the 3rd division level this year, but I've seen him here and there when watching Kuzmin. He's a skilled winger with a quick release that can keep opponents guessing and step into dangerous areas of the ice, recently finding his way onto my watchlist.
On the note of the Belarussian pro league, the only full time player from that league is the name I'll have my eyes on: Dmitri Kuzmin. This kid is a ton of fun. He's skilled, creative, surprisingly effective on defensive rushes, and while inconsistent in the offensive direction, dropping him back down to junior competition could be a ton of fun. I saw him score a lacrosse goal this year... as a defenseman. He's on my shortlist as a late round swing, but ranked much, much higher on my board.
I can't say I've seen a tremendous amount of the U18 and U17 teams that play in the Belarussian 2nd and 3rd division pro leagues, but I still believe these teams that play together all year have an advantage, and also have an advantage by playing against veteran professional competition. The talent level may not be enormous, but if Ivan Zhigalov steals a few goals here and there, and Kuzmin's offensive creativity drives a bit of offense, this team could surprise a few of us.
They're also (just barely) the youngest team in the tournament, so that's neat.

7. Switzerland - 8.91 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler (D)

Ah, the Swiss. If there's a program that seems to be losing a bit of steam in recent years internationally, I've felt that Switzerland is the closest thing to that. I think they'll have a solid tournament and avoid relegation, but it'd be pretty surprising to see this team make a ton of waves in the medal round.
Joel Henry, Attilio Biasca, and Brian Zanetti are all names I've had looks at this year, as well as leading scorer Liekit Reichle, and the top trio of Reichle, Henry and Truog being teammates on the Zurich junior program could be solid drivers of play, but I find their games not extremely projectable to higher levels. Reichle does bring a solid finishing ability with good skill to pull pucks and change angles, and can jump on loose pucks with a quick release to catch a goaltender sleeping, but we'll see if it'll be enough.
Dario Sidler, my player to watch, was suggested to me as a bit of a joke because he's very tiny, but checking him out briefly, I liked him enough to give him a few games of data, and yes, he's very tiny, but his work rate, all-around skating ability, and puck management at his best is a ton of fun. He's flirted with time in the NLA with Zug's men's team and while his defensive gap management and physical strength are very not good, I imagine he'll play an extremely important role driving offense for the Swiss junior team, and I'm curious to see what playing in this tournament will do for his game.
There are some D-1 players like Noah Greuter and Lian Bichsel may make waves as well, but my expectation for this team is somewhat low with regards to medal threat.

6. Czech Republic - 7.68 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Jiri Tichacek (D)

Like I said, samples are small, and many of these players have played limited minutes in good professional leagues in the Czech Republic, and this has deflated their NHLeS metrics significantly. This team is no slouch, and could be a surprise.
Their backend noted by Jiricek, Svozil, Tichacek, Hamara, and Machu in the least are all legitimate to high end NHL prospects, and if Tomas Suchanek can be solid in net, this team could surprise.
Jiri Tichacek against junior competition could be fun quarterbacking their power play with Jiricek, and my thoughts on Tichacek are well documented. He's mobile, skilled, excellent managing defensive gaps and stick checking opponents, and has offensive upside that rarely got to come out in the Chance Liga.
In researching this piece, Simon Marha stood out to me. He's a big, rangy winger who gets himself and pucks to the net well. He landed on my watchlist after having a look, and hopefully he's a focal point of the Czech offense to support their strong defense.
David Jiricek is a bad, bad young person and we're all going to be well aware of that after this tournament, I think.
Martin Rysavy, Jakub Brabanec, and other names here and there will be relied upon to produce points, but I think this is a team that can squeeze out a win against teams where they're undervalued through legitimately strong defending.

5. Finland - 12.82 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Ville Koivunen (W)

Finland is always a perplexing international team in my experience. I can't help but give them credit for their high intensity, admirably strong game that extracts plenty of output from their players.
Samu Salminen is arguably the player that mismatches between their production and my viewings of him. He's big, got some good skill, excellent scoring instincts, but pace, skating and defensive work rate are all issues I've spotted every time I've seen him. He could have a productive tournament here, but he isn't a player I'm clamoring to add to my program. I'm happy to be proven wrong, as he's scoring all these points somehow.
Brad Lambert should be one of the first names off the board in 2022, and Joakim Kemell is another name in the same program who has impressed me significantly. These two being key role players wouldn't surprise me in this tournament.
Their defense is marked by a blend of mobility and puck management. Aleksi Heimosalmi, Jimi Suomi, Topias Vilen, and Viljami Juusola have all impressed me with their skating ability, with Heimosalmi's lateral mobility and skill, Suomi and Juusola's four way speed and quickness, and Topias Vilen's aggressive escape gear on the offensive side of the puck.
Kalle Ervasti has been a guy who is up and down in my experience, but when he's on, he's an impressive modern defender with range, skill, intelligence and the ability to take care of the puck with the odd flash of offensive creativity. I'll have my eye on him on a bigger stage to say the least.
Ville Koivunen has been a more projectable and impressive hockey player than teammate Samu Tuomaala. Tuomaala may have higher pace to his game and more speed, but he's frustrating with the puck in a variety of ways, and while I believe he'll have a good tournament here, I also believe that Koivunen could impress folks and end up with more production than we thought through his intelligence, care for the puck, and increasing offensive danger seen over the course of the season.
Oliver Kapanen isn't his cousin Kasperi, but he's certainly a smart, effective offensive player who knows where to be and what to do whenever I've seen him play. The tracked data I have on him is solid all around, and as he could be a good role player for the Finns this year.
My expectations for Kalle Väisänen are relatively low, but that's only because I want him to come in and surprised all of us. He's big, but skilled, intense, and I've seen him casually obliterate junior competition in Finland. He may be a bit of a roleplayer, but I'm curious to see his mobility, skill, and physical imposition on display here. There aren't a ton of players at this tournament quite like him, but I'm interested. Another player where the tracked data is quite impressive in a number of areas.

4. Sweden - 11.45 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Elias Salomonsson (D)

The Swedes are going to be an interesting team to watch. There's a tremendous amount of firepower here with players who I believe are highly underrated going into the 2021 Draft.
I'm expecting huge things from Fabian Lysell, Isak Rosen, Simon Robertsson, and a legitimately strong 2022 class of names like Noah Östlund, Simon Forsmark, Mattias Hävelid, and Ludwig Persson to say the least.
The supporting class of 2021's is also absolutely rock solid. I'm a big fan of Arvid Eljas, and if William Strömgren comes to play, this team could have multiple dangerous lines to go toe to toe with the best of them.
The weakness is in net. No Jesper Wallstedt isn't ideal as he isn't eligible, and the names they've brought, while okay, aren't what I'd consider potential game stealers as some other teams may have.
I know I mentioned David Jiricek as a guy who could have a coming out party for the 2022 Draft, but Elias Salomonsson is legit, scary good, and in my opinion a legitimate threat to go very early next year. A 30%+ INV% as one of the youngest 2022 eligibles in the J20 Nationell is hilarious, and he earned it through an extremely strong two-way game with excellent skill and confidence with the puck on his stick. A glitter player almost every time watching his junior team this year, I'm curious to see what he does in this tournament.

3. Russia - 8.84 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Katelevsky (F)

I'm hoping the Russians come away a bit more impressive than they did in the World Juniors. Their 2022 and 2023 eligibles are arguably going to be headliners for this team.
Matvei Michkov is simply a ridiculous goal scorer with tremendous skill and pace, Ivan Miroshnichenko has been incredibly impressive in similar ways when I've caught Omsk this season, and Danila Yurov spent extended periods in the KHL without looking too out of place.
I would've liked to see Loko defenseman Kirill Kudryavtsev make an appearance, but don't sleep on guys big, defense first guys like Novikov and Makarov, specifically the latter. Makarov's skill, mobility and fluidity are notable for his age, and in the limited pro experience he's had, he's been solid.
Vsevolod Gaidamak is one of the most perplexing players I've tracked this year. Spectacular ability to drive offensive transitions, get to the net and drive dangerous chances, but he just has no finishing ability to speak of. If he discovers some shooting skill, I'd have much more time for him on my board as he's a responsible two-way centre with good pace and skill that could be a good role player here.
Kirill Gersimyuk is my guy in net. He's big, has been absolutely demolished with almost 40 shots a night in the MHL with a solid series of VHL appearances, and 2022 eligible Sergei Ivanov is not far behind. I imagine Valeri Brinkman, being with the SKA-1946 team rather than Variyagi, will get the net, but I'm crossing my fingers that Gerasimyuk comes in and steals the show. He's stolen his fair share of games this year to say the least.
My player to watch could be Matvei Michkov, or Ivan Miroshnichenko, but that's too easy. Those guys are fantastic players who should be a ton of fun, but Dmitri Katelevsky is one that I want to see against junior competition to see how his game fares below the VHL level. His data I've tracked fluctuates greatly, but he's got a ton of off-puck pace, lots of energy, and covers ice very well. I'm more curious to see what he does more than anything, but I've got eyes on him.
The Russians have an advantage in net that I don't believe Sweden or Finland have, so to me, they're a greater medal threat, especially with potentially ridiculous firepower available up front.

2. Canada - 21.46 AvgNHLeS (kinda.)
Eyes On: Logan Stankoven (F)

I'm trying to set aside my Canadian bias here, and there is a strong chance that this team may struggle, considering five names haven't played a game this season, and Chase Stillman only played a limited sample in Denmark. They should still be a favourite on raw talent alone, but other teams have had a ton of time to get into playing mode, especially the United States.
With Benjamin Gaudreau leading the way in net with two strong backup options, and the same can't be said for the US team, Canada may still pull off a championship through their overwhelming talent.
I'm extremely curious to see Brett Harrison play, as his games in Finland showed raw skill and pace that I didn't see a ton of in 2019-20. Same goes for Mason McTavish, but ramped up. His improvement in Switzerland this year is undeniable, and he could easily boost his draft stock.
Shane Wright and Connor Bedard should be great, but we all know that. Bedard's NHLeS of 56.6 through 15 WHL games is undeniably ridiculous and unparalleled.
Brandt Clarke should pile up points. His ability to work the offensive zone is excellent, so just by virtue of being a PP1 quarterback, he'll get a chance to show off. He's no slouch defensively, but I'll be looking for a more reliable puck mover outside the OZ as that seemed to be a bit of an issue in every Slovakian pro game I tracked.
Of the guys that haven't played, nor named Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton is probably the name I want to keep an eye on the most. I came away liking teammate Avery Hayes in my viewings of Hamilton last year, but Winterton's intelligence and puck management are areas that I hope come out.
This team is loaded with firepower and a solid defensive foundation, and that may be enough to pull it off, but other teams with much more experience this year, and much more time playing together may be a hurdle. The talent is there though almost from top to bottom. This is a country that hasn't won this tournament since 2013, so forgive me for a lack of homerism.

1. United States (13.46 AvgNHLeS)
Eyes On: Dylan Duke (C/RW)

This team won 6 of 10 tournaments through the 2010s, and they may be getting off on the right foot again in 2021. This is a team that relies on outscoring opponents with tremendous offensive output all season long led by both 2021 and 2022 eligibles. It appears that their best finisher Chaz Lucius will be absent from the tournament, but I don't think the team will struggle to fill his large gap. Names like Dylan Duke, Ryan St. Louis, Red Savage, and Liam Gilmartin have flown under the radar all season long, and the 22's Jack Hughes, Isaac Howard, Logan Cooley, and Rutger McGroarty are all highly impressive talents to look forward to.
Their lone 2023 eligible Charlie Stramel is not Connor Bedard, but he's no joke. He's big, wiry, rangy, but skilled and looked excellent at the Biosteel All-American Game. This may not be a huge tournament for him, but it could be a sign of bright things to come for him.
Sasha Pastujov is going to get pushed and tested in this year's tournament. I've felt that Dylan Duke's relentless energy, offensive no-nonsense creativity and defensive intensity makes him a more interesting NHL project than Pastujov's highly volume-heavy offense and reception-based offensive transition game, but his adaptive skill under pressure and creativity with the puck is undeniable. He has the advantage of youth, but I'm curious to see how his game changes in this tournament if at all.
I'm legitimately sad to not be able to see what Jake Martin would be able to do in this year's draft as I do believe there's a lot of defensive ability and responsibility that he managed well, and without it, the team may be more susceptible to leaking scoring chances moreso than they already are.
If they don't get at least competent goaltending, they may struggle to be as dominant as their offense has shown so far this season, and a poor goaltending performance in the wrong game could sink their tournament, but they have more than enough talent to score their way out of problems throughout their lineup.

More than anything, I'm just happy to see international hockey again. The World Juniors this year were exciting, and the U18s are always equally entertaining in my experience. It's tremendously disappointing to see the Nova Scotia government pull the rug out from under the Women's World Championship, but things are... not great here in Canada, and all I can do is hope that they can reschedule, and bring us the exceptional women's tournament we've been waiting for. The pandemic has certainly gotten me more tied into the women's game and I'm sure I'm not the only one, so I hope the iron is struck, because it's hot. The Women's U18 should also get some more attention, as a sidenote. I'm very much looking forward to the return of those tournaments.

My medal predictions are relatively straightforward. The States seem like the team to beat all things considered, and I think they'll do it over the Canadians while the Russians and Swedes battle it out for the bronze with the Russian goaltending giving them a bit of an advantage. I think the States have an advantage, so long as they can outscore their opponents. They play yeehaw hockey, but they do so for a reason. They're just really good at scoring goals. Canada may be the most talented team, but I always have questions and they historically have looked disjointed and unreliable in this tournament. If their best players dominate, it won't matter much, though.

The Swedes and Finns are bringing good rosters, and if Sweden gets some heroism in net, their firepower could get them into the gold medal game. With the fun individuals peppered around the tournament on other teams, I'm excited to see what comes of it. Will it color my rankings? Maybe a little bit with regards to names on my watchlist and players I'm more bullish on than other outlets, but to me, this tournament is more about the fun factor and seeing what the future of hockey is capable of. In this year's draft, the 2022 and 2023 eligibles all could steal the show, but don't lose sight of the underrated 2021 eligibles that might add to their resumes.

All the best, stay safe, wear a mask, we got this. Let's have some fun watching this!

- Will

Scouching's Midseason 2021 NHL Draft Rankings

2/15/2021

I'll start this post by wishing you all a very Happy New Year, and I hope you and yours are well. Things are still very strange, but hopefully before too long, we're all able to start the road back to some kind of normalcy. That goes for both the hockey world and in our respective personal lives.

To say this 2021 draft class comes off as equal or an improvement on the classes of 2019 or 2020 might be a bit unlikely, but I'm not counting myself among the people who think this is a historically poor group of draft eligibles. The groups in the first two tiers should be solid core members of an NHL team, with the third and fourth being reliable complimentary pieces, or nice swings to take with high end individual traits. I'm personally very interested in the fifth tier and where they end up, as many players in that range are, in my opinion, quite undervalued and may be players you could draft late and end up with a contributing piece to a roster.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project. As of time of writing (Feb 16, 2021), I've tracked 268 performances across 99 players from all over the planet, which is already well on the way to surpassing my database for the 2020 Draft. That's largely thanks to your support and motivation to continue the work, so I hope that what I provide in return is valuable. All of this provides the backbone to how I construct my list, while also considering what I'm seeing with my eyeballs saved as 6 gigabytes of MP4s.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

With that all taken care of, here's the list!

Tier 1 - I Just Like 'em a Bit More...

Lots of changes here since November. Luke Hughes is still locked in at the top end, but what I've tracked of Beniers and his teammates, plus his exceptional World Junior performance all factor into him being the #1 player on my list. Could I consider Lysell or Eklund at 1? Potentially by the end of the year, but I feel as though the potential with the top 3 names could be more impactful in all areas of the game in the NHL.
Why Beniers at 1? He's a positive outlier in my tracking with regards to his transition game, his two-way energy is exceptional, and his ability to create shot attempts for his linemates is completely unparalleled. Of 68.3 SAT/60 Michigan has taken with Beniers on the ice, 34.6 of them have come off Beniers, or through a Beniers pass. Just Xavier Bourgault and Matthew Coronato are responsible for a comparable percentage of their team's overall offense, and neither have as projectable a transition game offensively in my opinion. Beniers also is completing dangerous passes at double the rate those other two are.
Jesper Wallstedt is just a robot. I don't know a ton about goaltending specifically, but he seems so dialed in constantly in almost any situation. Square to the puck, not wasting motion with his legs, staying calm in the net, there's a lot that really stands out to me. No draft eligible goaltender has ever played more than 10 games in an SHL season and put up a .900 save percentage. The last goaltender of any kind to play that amount of games at that level was in 1999. Wallstedt is a net positive stopping pucks relative to his workload, and he has a strong documented track record of stopping pucks at multiple levels. If he's a franchise goaltender, he could be the most valuable player at the top end of this draft, and he certainly deserves consideration in this range.
I've been asked already about Lysell > Eklund, and yes, when you look at production, it should be the other way around, but I see Eklund playing top minutes with Alexander Holtz and Jacob Josefson, some high end SHL talents, and Lysell playing about half the 5v5 minutes Eklund is playing in a brand new program after a midseason transition. I lean towards favouring Lysell's pace, underrated two way game, and ability to attack the net with the puck over Eklund's intelligent, agile approach. Eklund thrives off of evasion off the boards with the puck, perimeter playmaking, and strong off-puck offensive instincts, and is certainly not a huge step down, but Lysell is one of a very small number of players who excites me almost every time he steps on the ice at every level I've seen him this season.

Tier 2 - A.K.A. Tier 1B

My early views of Owen Power were troubling to say the least, but I'll admit that he's improved in my latest game of tracking and in recent weeks. If he gets a head of steam going with the puck on his stick, he's borderline unstoppable. His passing game, especially in the offensive zone can be exceptional. The trouble with him largely surrounds his lack of side to side mobility away from the puck to reliably close out transitions and box out opponents. He's allowing far too many pucks inside to the middle of the ice, and under pressure, his ability to settle pucks and get them to safety can completely collapse. Putting him at #1 in my view is a huge, huge risk where you're hoping he can adjust to the NHL game when he seems to still have trouble shutting play down defensively and defusing offensive pressure at the NCAA level. Top ten pick that could be a middle pair puck rusher with nice offensive tools? I could see it. I'm just not surprised he and Johnson's DefCat% are so poor.
Speaking of Kent Johnson, he's arguably the most gifworthy player in this draft, but his pace and decisionmaking tendencies are troublesome. He tries to go one on one more often than you'd like, and can ignore clear passing options leading to far more work for himself than is necessary. His work rate away from the puck is underrated and he's capable of turning play around, but he's a pretty big boom or bust player in my view. Another year or two at college would be advisable to simplify his processing of the game at high pace, improving his strength, while retaining the remarkable skill he's gifted with.
Aaty Raty has been flirting with significant improvements in his game. I tracked a U20 level game of his and it was unfair to the opponent. Just an incredible performance, with his return to the Liiga showing clear signs of improvement. His intelligence, agility, skill, transition game and ability to get shots off from inside dangerous areas are all there, if inconsistent at times. He's playing more of a physical brand recently, but he still retains strong fundamentals that could pay significant dividends if things break right.
Yes, that's Simon Robertsson in there. I've absolutely loved what I've seen of him over the year. Early in the year I saw a highly offensive leaning, defensively negligible skilled winger with tremendous agility and a remarkable shot, but over time, he's improved on his ability to cover ice away from the puck, and has been getting his chances at the SHL level without looking out of place. His defensive game has gotten more reliable, but he's not likely going to be a tremendous two-way force. He's exciting, his data at the J20 level was dominant, and I think there's huge potential for an offensive scoring winger here that puts him in this group.
Yes, Robertsson is above Simon Edvinsson here. Edvinsson's game has certainly settled down as the year goes on, and in my tracking, he seems to have found a sweet spot in the Allsvenskan. He's a player who can be a ton of fun to watch until he isn't. His puck management needed to simplify far more often, and that seems to be happening, but he's unafraid to attack the neutral zone with skill and power through his skating. His DSAT% through all this is still 62.2%, and his ability to shut down defensive transitions is highly underrated. Risky, absolutely. Stash him in Sweden for a few years and continue to work on his fundamentals, and there could be a really interesting two-way defenseman.
I honestly don't have a ton to say about Brandt Clarke. He's improved game by game, with underrated defensive results, but I question his pace outside the defensive zone, his passing vision, and projectability to play the style he loves to play, but I will not count him out at all.

Tier 3 - The Rock Solids

All of these names are really reliable names that I think could turn into useful auxiliary pieces.
Names like Sillinger, Rosen, and Guenther show great offensive potential, Sillinger and Rosen especially for their shooting potential. Guenther is a tough one to place considering how much he's playing, but what I saw in the AJHL didn't quite meet my expectations, but I'll be on him quick once he starts playing again.
Oskar Olausson has been playing in the SHL for a while, and I'm not 100% sure there's a true offensive weapon down the road, but he's been using his size effectively, and he's an efficient player per puck touch. He finds open ice at high speed in offensive transitions, and has skill to evade defenders in open ice. A two-way winger to place in your middle six seems perfectly reasonable in this range, and Olausson feels like a safe bet to get to that point.
I just really liked Logan Stankoven last season and really wish he were playing. If he's available in the 2nd round like some rankings seem to indicate, I'd take a rambunctious little guy who can shoot.
Fyodor Svechkov might be one of the most underrated players in the draft. His data shows all the telltale signs of a really good player on a really bad team. His DSAT% of 38% is admittedly bad. His Pass% of 61.3% is also bad. Lada generates just 9.8 dangerous shot attempts/60 with Svechkov on the ice at 5v5. All of this is bad, but, Svechkov is #12 in my tracking in total offensive transitions, and #6 in controlled offensive transitions. His OCZT% of 75% at those workloads puts him tied for 2nd with Joshua Roy behind Matthew Coronato. With the skating and pace he brings at the Russian 2nd division pro level, I feel as though that's more proejctable than the highly positional, relatively low pace transition game that Coronato and Roy bring. Svechkov is a big-time mystery box, but he has a skill under pressure that I haven't seen in many this year. I think there's a lot to like, especially if he finds his way onto a better Russian program. As a centre, his transition game is excellent at the VHL level on a team as lacklustre as Lada Togliatti, so with time, I'm hopeful.

Tier 4 - Big Time Maybes

I think most of these players could be complimentary pieces focused primarily on offense, but I like McTavish's intensity which together with his shooting talent puts him at the top.
Zach L'Heureux has fallen off a bit. He doesn't think through his play as much as I'd like, he can disappear in his own end, and the potential he shows doesn't come out as much as it could. I got similar feelings as I did with Dawson Mercer, but maybe a step below in terms of pure upside. He could be higher by the end of the year, but I've wanted more out of him more often than he's impressed me.
If Nikita Chibrikov brought more of his best every shift, he'd be much higher. He's insanely skilled and creative, but his defensive game is almost nonexistent to the point of being a detriment. There's a long way to go, but patience could pay off.
Carson Lambos and Daniil Chayka just strike me as perfectly fine options to fill out your defense group with. You won't have to worry a ton about either, but their ability to drive play with the puck is hit or miss. Lambos in the Liiga shows the importance of playing at high pace as he felt a bit overwhelmed with the intensity level, and seemed to be a bit unsettled. All of this is forgivable, but these two defenders to me are likely to be reliable, if not exciting at 5v5.
Speaking of exciting, Scott Morrow is in here. Tony Ferrari's interview with him was highly enlightening and encouraging, and only made me like the guy more. His skating, skill, and all-around offensive game at the prep level is absolutely outstanding. His data is laughably ridiculous. 81% DSAT%, 81% passing on 103 attempts per 60 5v5 minutes, an 88.7% OCZT%, 19.4% DCZT%, and has a staggering 94.7% success rate entering the offensive zone with control. If there was a single player outside the top tiers that could become a truly great defenseman, he's the one I'd put money on and expect a good payout. I'm hopeful he plays a bit in the USHL, but I'm willing to bet on his potential. His defensive game can be a bit patchy, getting beat in low pace situations where you wish he'd put in a few extra percent, but once that puck hits his stick, if he's focused, he's ridiculous. A couple seasons with North Dakota working through some potentially bad habits with the puck, and a bit of a lack of defensive intensity at times, and this guy could be one of the more exciting defenders in a team's pipeline.
I'm already ready for the Samoskevich > Coronato discussion. Samoskevich's production and data is not on Coronato's level, but Coronato plays with much older USHL linemates, is a 2002, and doesn't have the speed or skill that Samoskevich can display. I don't mind either player, but I feel there's more runway with what Samoskevich can do now, but Coronato could be a nice complimentary offensive piece with solid power play passing vision.

Tier 5 - The Meat of the Draft

This is arguably the most interesting group of players in the entire draft to me. Full of fun, big swings, and potentially some great defensive players that I'm sticking my neck out on.
Ayrton Martino is almost all offense, but he's remarkably explosive, skilled, and puts opponents on their heels constantly. He's skilled, has legitimate dual-threat offense, and his tracked data so far is absolutely outstanding. If he can bring his work rate up away from the puck and avoid cheating in the defensive zone chasing offense, there could be a special player here. On the other hand, he's prone to earning a few breakaways in every game I've seen and he could be a player where you take the pros with the cons as he scores in bunches.
I'm still on the Jiri Tichacek train. His recent performances at the junior level have been impressive, and he's a defenseman where I'm betting on his mobility and skill long term. He's a project, and needs to refine his puck play to be quicker, more reliable and consistent, but when he's dialed in, he's a tremendous undersized defenseman. He can close gaps defensively well with very good results, and if he gets stronger on his feet, it could translate well to the NHL game leading with his stick, positioning and covering ice with his mobility before relying on physical play. I'm a big believer in the fundamental tools on Tichacek.
Brent Johnson is a guy who I'll go to bat for after being turned onto him just a few weeks ago. His game has evolved and adapted to the USHL level over the year and he's playing tremendous amounts of ice time for the Stampede. He's remarkably skilled and evasive on his feet, he's one of the better players at separating pucks from opponents that I've tracked, and when he connects on strong breakout passes, it gets hockey nerds like me out of my seat. It's inconsistent and he can panic under pressure, but that seems to be going away as he gets more experienced. If he continues to improve in games 4-7 with the results he's been putting up with regards to goal impacts, he could easily be a name I look at in the 1st round.
For Jake Martin, see Brent Johnson. I like Martin's puck separation ability, and his ability to use mobility to stick to forecheckers in the neutral zone, but Johnson's skill and puck management seems to have a higher ceiling. Martin could very easily be a modern defensive defenseman who you don't notice often for the right reasons. He should be available much later than where I have him listed, but I've been impressed with him all season long, especially relative to other NTDP defenseman like Hreschuk, Schmidt, and Behrens.
I need to get back on tracking Franceso Pinelli, but I've been underwhelmed with his play in the Slovenian league. That is not a good hockey league, and while his data was dominant, he wasn't playing with any kind of speed or pace that felt anything close to high end. Other players who haven't played all season have looked better in their early games, but again I need to go back and check in again.
I've got names like Coronato, Pastujov, and Pinelli in here for all similar reasons. I just don't know how their games translate as they are to the next level. Pastujov is skilled with nice diverse offensive tools, and both he and Coronato drive great offensive transition results, but once they're faced with pressure consistently, especially having tracked Pastujov against a mediocre NCAA program, there are questions. These guys could very easily be nice efficient pieces that can work with faster, more exciting linemates, but I'm not clamoring for them where I've seen them ranked by a few others.
Lorenzo Canonica didn't blow me away in the World Juniors, but his play in Shawinigan has been rock solid, with a great release on his shot, and solid pace and skill to evade defenders. He may end up down in Tier 6, but I see flashes of high skill at high pace out of him that I like.
If I'm being honest, I've liked Ville Koivunen over Samu Tuomaala, but Tuomaala's fundamental talents feel like a higher level relative to Koivunen. Koivunen brings intelligence and efficiency, but Tuomaala has pace and skill that you really wish he'd be more aggressive with.

Tier 6 - Big Bois and Big Swings

There's a lot of small players who are big swings in here. Namely, Jeremy Wilmer, Marcus Almquist, Lukas Gustafsson and Sean Behrens. Outside of that, a lot of players that have been impressive in specific areas, or low upside guys who might be useful pieces down the road.
Gustafsson is barely playing on a powerful Chicago Steel team, but his production has been good in exclusively 5v5 minutes. His skating and passing ability in conjunction is at a high level, able to generate speed quickly and fire hard passes all over the ice. He's gotten barely any fanfare this year, and if you can land him as a late round swing, I'd throw his name out there. A defender playing well under 10 5v5 minutes a night scoring at a 25 point pace over a full USHL season would an interesting case and relative to a teammate in this range Ryan Ufko, I've liked Gustafsson's pass execution, skill, and ability to generate speed a bit more, to be perfectly honest.
Ufko is an odd one. He has a heck of a shot from the point, but it doesn't come out super often as I've found he's locked in neutral zone play that isn't particularly exceptional. He's a smaller defender who plays small, doesn't have a ton of pace to his decisions or passing ability, and an overall low involvement in transitions going both directions with mediocre results going both directions.
Elias Stenman is underrated, especially if you can snag him as a swing in the later rounds. He's intelligent away from the puck and makes a living just making little plays to drive play in the right direction. I'm circling back on him but he seems to have translated to the men's level well considering he's on one of the worst teams in the HockeyEttan. His U20 data is also outstanding, but that's over just a 12 game sample.
David Gucciardi is one that I've come across due to his production and having been involved in a trade for Scott Morrow's rights a while back. He's a strong defender with a powerful stride and able to cover ice effectively, but the real fun is his shooting ability combined with the skill he has with the puck. His ability to corral odd pass attempts and turn them into something positive is notable, and his DCZT% of 22.2% is among the lowest I've tracked. His passing is literally very hit or miss, completing just 56.8% of his attempts, but his head often seems to be in the right place. Both Youngstown and Waterloo's forwards have issues driving play with speed and aggression, and many outlet passes are intercepted and shut down by opponents, but when Gucciardi gets going, he can really get going. Another one where if he's a late round swing, you could do much worse.

Tier 7 - Whipping Cupcakes

These are just a bunch of interesting names that aren't that much of a step up on my 8th tier. I really like what I've seen out of the young players here like Blake, Orr, Wong, Brown and Savage. Stjernborg, Poltapov, Katelevsky, and Vilen play relatively simple games that could translate if their fundamentals improve over time.
The Defensive Dmitri's are curious to me. Kuzmin and Kostenko are both very skilled, mobile, but not perfect. Kuzmin attempted a lacrosse goal at one point this year, and his mobility is almost worth betting on alone. His OCZT% and DCZT% split of 62.2% and 28.1% are notable for a men's league player, even if he's playing in Belarus. He's also maintaining control on 50% of his offensive zone entries, which for a defenseman is quite remarkable. Kostenko is a hard one to read for the same reasons Fyodor Svechkov is, but I've been a fan of his for a while and could be swayed to take him in the 2nd round if there was enough support for the idea.
I'm still waiting for Vlad Lukashevich to take the steps I thought he would, and he just hasn't shown a ton that wows you outside of being a good MHL defenseman with some nice skill, but it isn't there enough, and he doesn't push play nearly as often as you'd like for a defenseman with as much fun potential as him.
Joona Korhonen is a fun one I've just started tracking. He could easily end up in Tier 6 for his skill and fun factor, but Ilves' junior team was just awful with him on the ice in both games I've tracked, and his off-puck game seems to need plenty of work. He's fun, but I need to see more to be sure of what's there.
Kalle Ervasti is another interesting low upside defensive player. He covers ice well, moves pucks efficiently, and if he can start stitching together strong sequences turning play around, he could be an interesting player to pick up late.
Ethan Cardwell should've been drafted. If it were up to me, he would've been, and he's absolutely dismantling the Swedish 3rd division this year with pace and skill. He gets to dangerous areas, he attacks hard, and he's very nearly a draft year player this year. Of all the DY players loaned in the HockeyEttan, only William Stromgren comes close to the pure production Cardwell has put up, and his two way results have been better.

Tier 8 - Really Digging Deep...

Just a whole lot of "we'll see" here. Everyone loves to talk about Alexander Kisakov, but I don't think I buy the hype. If he's available in the 3rd round and beyond, we can talk, but his A-rating from CSS is a bit questionable. He gets to dangerous areas to shoot, has nice pace, and decent defensive results, but his passing is really hit or miss, and his ability to exit the defensive zone is significantly better than entering the offensive zone.
Alexander Suvorov, Olen Zellwegger, Cameron Berg, and Valtteri Karnaranta are just a ton of fun to watch at their respective levels, and Berg should've been the guy I took for Team Scouching at the end of the 2020 Draft, but alas, I am a coward.
Theo Jacobsson is a guy flying under the radar that I've really liked. He's gone from dominating the U18 level, to barely playing at the U20 level, to playing against men all in the same season, and there are adjustments that are hopefully on the way. He's skilled, pretty quick on his feet, and is one of the best overall transition players I've tracked with an OCZT%/DCZT% split of 86.7% and 35.7% respectively. Again, if you're talking 7th round swings on Europeans you can stash for four years, Jacobsson would be an interesting bet.
Jere Virolainen seems to have detractors, but he's a guy who is efficient whenever I've seen him with a few moments where I'm standing there going "ooooooh!". Creativity making plays below the goal line, physical play to free pucks up around the ice, skill under pressure to evade players, there's a lot to be interested in, just not super high in the draft.
Liam Gilmartin is slowly improving with the NTDP, and I think there's potential for an energy winger down the road. He's got a solid combination of speed, skill and work rate that could take him a ways, even if he isn't going to light up the scoreboard consistently. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play with more confidence and vision more often, because it often pays off for him when he does. He can be a bit overly simplistic, but if anything that means he could easily play a more straightforward role down an NHL lineup with his fundamental tools
Kirill Gerasimyuk is just a hilarious profile. A .900+ SPCT goaltender in the VHL, facing a hilarious 36 shots against per game with SKA-Varyagi in the MHL, and outperforming his 3.6 xGA per game allowing just 2.5 goals per game. He's faced 40+ shots 10 times in 25 appearances, and registered a .900 SPCT or more in every one. Just two MHL games have been below a .900 SPCT. Nine of his appearances have been over a .950 SPCT. He's a goalie who is facing many, many shots, and many, many dangerous shots, and stopping many of them. He's a guy I'd add to my list in the mid rounds and let him grow with SKA's program.

The Watchlist

And so, we get to the watchlist. Limited usage guys, guys I've had a good feeling about for reasons I can't explain, or curious data players who are outperforming what I've seen that I need to see more of.
Bennet Roßmy is playing second division German hockey, but he's got skill and size that I like. A good release, good international results, and solid pace all seem like something worth keeping an eye on, even if he doesn't get drafted.
Pick224 highlighted Olli Nikupeteri, and I was impressed checking him out. A great released paired with solid skill showed a curious player to keep an eye on.
I just love watching Dmitri Zugan skate. He's been playing more and more over the year, getting more and more confident, but he's going to need to attack the offensive zone with more aggression to produce more. The talent is there, the fun factor is there, and the work rate is high.
William Trudeau's data is excellent, but what I've tracked and seen of him is... not. Might need to circle back, but there's such a variance here that I might've picked his worst games to track. He's got solid mobility, and good offensive instincts with a nice shot from the point and good puck distribution ability, but a DSAT% of 21.4% and an OCZT% of 36% is underwhelming at best.
Aleksi Heimosalmi, Johnathan Myrenberg and Valtteri Koskela are defenders who can skate and that's why you bet on them long term. Miks Tumanovs is the same, but older and probably not a guy you draft, but I've loved his skill, size, and skating ability for such a big defender.
The Ufa bois are in here. Yegor Suchkov should've been drafted, Daniil Bashkirov was one of the more surprising Russians on the World Junior team, working his way from 13th forward to second line centre with a few notable moments on the penalty kill. Alexei Pustozyorov also has caught my eye, but he's a D+3 and might be one you keep an eye on to snag as a free agent if he continues to improve. Daniil Aimurzin has been very good in the VHL, and absolutely dominant in the MHL, but he's a D+1 that you might just keep an eye out for as he plays more in the KHL next year. I'd still push for Suchkov over all. He's just so much fun, and I watched him step on KHL ice for the first time ever, making a dang fool out of Vladislav Kolyachonok and Brennan Menell at the same time.
Elias Sjostrom caught my eye in his brief U20 appearances, but his U18 production is laughably ridiculous. He's mobile with a solid point shot, low viewings and a low level of play leave him down here.
Same goes for Karl Umegard. He's small but a little buzzsaw that's a ton of fun to watch. Really young, and might be a guy you watch develop for another year, but he's caught my eye a few times when he's played with MODO's U20 team.
Sebastian Lundman was a U18 beast who hasn't fully projected to the U20 level, but the data I tracked on him was promising. Nice dual threat offense, nice skill and evasiveness, but just not getting the results. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a step next year.

This year's draft has as significantly higher amount of shrugging from me than I'm used to. I get the feeling that if I'm working for an NHL team, I'm waiting for unheralded guys in the higher tiers to slip later than they should such as Tichacek, Johnson, Gucciardi, Martino, or even names like Scott Morrow or Logan Stankoven could. I'm most interested in the 2nd round range of my list and what might come out of that group. There are re-entries that I'd push for, but in terms of draft eligibles, there are only a few players that are flying under the radar that I truly feel confident about in terms of their projection. I'm really curious to see where this group ends up in 5-10 years, though. As I said, I don't believe it's as bad as some might say, but it's definitely not as exciting as the last two years where I've really dug into the group.

The 2021 Scouching Reports start in March, so stay tuned for those, NHL Rookie Reports are rolling in, and stay in the loop for more What Actually Happened To... installments both here on Scouching.ca and at McKeens.

We're still not out of the woods yet with COVID-19, so I'll take a bit of time to remind you to stay as distanced as you can, wear a mask whenever you do leave your domicile, and do your part to look out for your community. It's been a really, really hard year for everyone, but the less careful we are, the longer this goes on. I want to get back into the rink just like everyone else and meeting all of you lovely people, but there's still work to do that starts with the individual.

- Will

Scouching's Preliminary 2021 Top-31+ NHL Draft Rankings

11/18/2020

First off, I hope you and yours are all doing well. This year has been really strange, really frustrating, and above all, just really hard. The COVID-19 Pandemic has been an extremely difficult adjustment for many, and to all our medical professionals out there, you're all just a bunch of heroes. I honestly don't know what day it is most days anymore, but regardless of what's going on in the world, hockey seems to be stumbling along around the world adapting as things shift and change just like the rest of us. It's been unique so far, but luckily there's been enough to watch and track where I feel somewhat confident about at least the first 3 tiers of players for the 2021 Draft. As of time of writing (November 18, 2020), I've gathered data on 43 skaters across 54 games played, which granted is a small sample, but all of these players are players I've laid eyes on over the last two seasons, and many of these are players I've tracked data on so far this season.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

Before we get started with a list, I'd just like to put a calm reminder out there to please be selfless and look out for yourself, your family, and your community by wearing a mask, washing/sanitizing your hands, staying distant, staying within your household as much as possible, and when the time is right, receiving whatever vaccine is available. This virus is horrible and has taken far, far too many lives. Protecting yourself, yours, and those who you many never encounter starts with you.

Alright, behold. Scouching's Top-31+ preliminary rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft. Please keep in mind that Pick224 doesn't seem to be updated for this season, so the metrics derived from Dave's data mining is not available. Also, data streams and sample sizes are all over the place, so take the metrics with a salt mine's worth of salt.

Tier 1 - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This could very easily be ordered very, very differently come the 2021 NHL Draft. It might honestly come down to what style of play you just... like.

Luke Hughes is #1 to me for a combination of his size, age, skating ability, and offensive lean with excellent two-way potential. He's a tremendous driver of offensive transitions and has taken a big step with his skating from last season. Owen Power is almost a full year older, and I've found Hughes to be the more exciting player as of right now, but it's close.
Yes, there's a goalie at 3 here. I love Wallstedt. He's squared up in form constantly. He stops pucks a lot. He's calm, collected, and already doing very well at the SHL level, something no first time draft eligible has done before. If you're in such an uncertain draft, and there's a chance of landing a franchise goalie, could we see a goalie go at #1 if they've been playing in the SHL all year? I wouldn't count it out. Where Yaroslav Askarov might be a bit more reactionary and athletic, Wallstedt is calculated, smart, and focused, and I've greatly enjoyed watching him when he's played this year.
I can't help but be disappointed in Aatu Räty so far this season. I've described him as "Anton Lundell ratcheted up a bit" and I still stand by that. He's highly responsible defensively, smart with his positioning, and has a fluidity and skill that I didn't see in Lundell last year. The catch is that Räty's offensive game seems extremely hit-or-miss. I've seen Cody Ceci-esque misses on shots from in the slot, but I've seen him put one in the top of the net from near the goal line. He's a big case of "wait-and-see". While the potential is there for him to go #1 in my view, I think I lean more in the direction of Räty going later than where I have him slotted.
Fabian Lysell might be the guy portrayed as an offensive dynamo (which he is) but he's an extremely underrated two-way player in the games I've seen. He works hard and it pays off. He had an outrageously good game in the 1st game I tracked, and his 2nd wasn't too much worse. He can score, pass, play away from the puck, and he's one of these guys I could watch play the game all day. It seems silly, but the only thing holding him back from being higher on my list is that the quality of defender in this top group.
Clarke is a curious one. I think his style of play is really hard to pull off in the NHL, so I'm withholding him from a top slot until I can see him play this year and track some games.
William Eklund is just going to likely be a really, really rock solid meat and potatoes hockey player. Really great two-way player who does good things almost every time he's stepping on the ice. There's a lot of Lucas Raymond echoes here, but I don't see quite the same talent level. Just an admirable player I'll have my eye on all year.
I really, really like Beniers. I've been watching him for three seasons now, and he's just such a solid offensive mind. Tremendous results in game 1 of tracking, a great combination of footspeed, skill, adaptability and creativity. A great offensive pivot who can drive great transition rates offensively and supply linemates with shot assists in the offensive zone, as of right now, I have more time for projecting Beniers as a top level prospect before teammate Kent Johnson.

Tier 2 - ...More Like Tier 1B

Lambos is a player who gives me a bit of pause. Defenders who are "good at everything but not elite at much" seem to always underperform their draft slot. Not saying it's impossible, and I love Lambos' ability to work the blueline, distribute the puck and participate in an offense, but I just haven't seen enough that can quite get him higher on my list.
I want Simon Edvinsson to be a thing so badly. The raw talent here could very easily put him in Tier 1, but goodness gracious his puck distribution and ability to think under pressure can be woefully inadequate. He's driving great defensive transition metrics, solid shot differentials, and has a tremendous combination of skating and skill for a defender, but this is a defender near 120 pass attempts/60 through two tracked games, which would put him 2nd in my 2020 tracking, and missing on 45% of those passes. That is not good enough. Luckily, improving in that area of the game should unlock a tremendous player. He might require patience, but the tools are there.
On Kent Johnson, I get it. The skill is there in spades, but in my view, that's largely where the high end ability ends. I'm not huge on how he gets around the ice, how he thinks under heavy pressure, and compared to a player like Matthew Beniers, I come away thinking Beniers might have a better two way game as a quarterback down the middle. We'll see on Johnson, but I'm not on the same train as many others so far.
L'Heureux, Sillinger, Robertsson, Stankoven, and Bourgeault are just really fun players to watch. Bourgeault and L'Heureux both had excellent first tracked games in terms of offensive transitions and creating offense, especially L'Heureux.
Nikita Chibrikov could be as good as he wants to be. I see a very, very inactive player away from the puck far too often regardless of what level he's playing at, but when the puck is on his stick and he's got the confidence flowing, he's a tremendous player. Great skill to open up the ice and manipulate opponents, a great release he could use from dangerous areas more often, and a sense of patience that can be hard to find.
Chaz Lucius is the probably the guy I have lower than most, but it's more philosophical to me. He's an exceptional finisher with a diverse set of skills to use on goaltenders to put pucks where they are not. Beyond that, I'm not sure what's there. He's wasn't as good of a shot differential driver with the U17 team last year, and his game is very reliant on goal scoring, which implies that other players are doing legwork for him, but he's still an exceptional goal scorer. When he's back from injury, I'll be tracking him early, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a guy that's lower on my list than most. He's still very good at what he does, though.
I don't quite get why others haven't latched onto Cole Huckins yet. He's a 6'3" centre (granted often playing the wing when I've seen him) with a great transition game going both directions who attempted a comparable number of dangerous passes as Zach L'Heureux in Game 1. He drives through pressure very well, but can also leave players behind with his speed and skill. I've got an eye on him and I've been pleasantly surprised at how he's generating his results so far.
I've only tracked a game of Samu Tuomaala, and I frankly was disappointed. You can see what he's all about for sure, but he was more of an auxiliary player when I tracked him. He took good care of the puck, but wasn't involved much offensively, and his transition game was b a d. I still have tons of time for him, but I was surprised at what I saw both with my eyeballs and in the data.
Well, I think I've found the small player I latch onto for the year in Jeremy Wilmer. He's agile on his feet, has exceptional skill, and has dual threat offense that I just can't stop watching. He isn't playing a ton with the U18 team, but I hope his minutes climb over the year. He drove great shot differentials in the game I tracked, but seemed to have trouble getting going in terms of generating offense at 5v5. I chalk that up to how the game goes sometimes, but if that holds up over the year, he might end up further down my list. He just gives me a feeling that he's going to work out, and be a great offensive player with some time and patience.

Tier 3 - One Small Step Down

Scott Morrow is simply hilarious. If he were playing in the USHL or NCAA the way he plays at the prep level, he could be a phenomenal defenseman and ranked much, much higher. His defensive reads can be a bit hit or miss at times, but goodness gracious outside of that, he has immense talent. His size, forwards skating ability and mobility, the skill he's got to pull pucks around the ice and evade pressure, and make little plays everywhere to maintain possession are spectacular traits. If you've got HockeyTV, go check him out. He's punching way, way below his weight class with Shattuck and it shows in the data.
Sean Behrens is a small defender with great offensive tools, but outside the OZ, I have questions. I think his ability to cover ice for a small defenseman is not quite there, and his lack of strength and explosiveness on his feet can be an issue. I have time for the guy, and I'll keep an eye on him, but there are other defenders on the NTDP like Aidan Hreschuk, and even Jake Martin (who just missed the cut here) that I've felt are more projectable talents right now.
William Strömgren is a big, skilled winger who I think has tons of potential. He drives great shooting metrics, rock solid transition data, and can be a real thrill to watch. MODO has some really interesting draft eligibles this year in Theo Jacobsson and Karl Umegård, but Strömgren takes the cake to me.
Marcus Almquist is basically a more projectable version of Zion Nybeck in my view. He's got speed and agility where Nybeck didn't, and the metrics he drove in Game 1 are outstanding, especially compared to Nybeck. His Offensive Threat crossed 30, with excellent shot selection and playmaking ability. If Wilmer's 5v5 game never reaches what I think it could be, Almquist is right there as the small player I'll be pushing for.
On the polar opposite of the height scale is Samuel Helenius. He is a very, very big boy who I'd buy into. His mobility and fluidity are already at a pretty high level in my view, and in Game 1 of tracking, registered a dangerous pass attempt rate of 14.3, putting him 8th in my tracking thus far. Who's #1? Scott Morrow, of course. Helenius is very, very raw, but I think there's potential for a defense first player that can chip in offensively.
Lada Togliatti is a... team. They've got two great draft eligibles in Fyodor Svechkov and Dmitri Kostenko, but refuse to play them together. Without those two involved in play, that team can be downright hopeless. Svechkov went 12/14 in controlling offensive transitions and went 10/13 in preventing control on defensive transitions, with 3 shot attempts that counted for 25% of his team's shot attempts in Game 1. I'm a believer in Svechkov, and Kostenko to a lesser extent, but Lada is one of those teams where how their unit functions naturally makes it really tough to get a good read on the specific prospects your looking at.
I've found that Hugo Gabrielsson does a really good job covering for Simon Edvinsson's tendency to... panic. While not extremely active across bluelines in the limited 5v5 time he got in Game 1, he drove good shooting metrics, landed a high danger attempt connected on 11 of 13 passes, including a dangerous pass attempt leading to one of his two shot assists in the <9 5v5 minutes he played. I think his data will improve the more I track, but he's one to watch regardless.

Overall Thoughts

It's a weird group. I don't really see the drop in talent levels that we've seen in recent years, and the talent seems to be coming from all over the world more than before. It feels as if instead of a certain team or country having "their guy" to compete with Canada's best, many countries are developing better and better talent more and more as time goes on, which is clouding this year's draft. Let me also just say that 2022 looks to be similar. There are a lot of "Glitter Players" that have caught my eye in tracking this year that are eligibles next year, and they're everywhere. The interconnectivity and globalism provided in modern society seems to be leveling the playing field significantly. I mean, the oldest players on this list would've been around 4 years old when I got a Facebook account. They likely don't remember a time before YouTube and high speed internet connections where anyone can share tips and information as they please to the whole world. Judging by the breadth of interesting talent for the 2021 Draft, I don't really mind.

Thank you very much for perusing this, I hope you enjoyed, and please remember to look out for yourself and everyone else by taking the proper COVID precautions and being careful with your risk management. It might save a life you may never meet, and it may save the life of someone you love.

Toodles!

Scouching's Final 2020 NHL Draft Ranking

9/30/2020

Hello again. This has been a strange summer, no? Yes, it has. Anyway, welcome to the actual final ranking for the 2020 Draft. I've had a change of philosophy to remove some players where I don't feel that I could make a reasonable pitch for them to be drafted. I believe you have to be passionate and believe in every kid you draft, and have fundamental strengths you can reinforce in them and accept that there are weaknesses in every player that have to be managed and improved accordingly to maximize overall impact on the ice. Ranking players where I'm not sure of their likely prospects in the NHL just feels... greasy.

So, 96 players ranked this time around with a watchlist of curious cases to either keep an eye on if undrafted, or to take a swing on in the late rounds. My overall read on this year is overall quite positive. I think there are some exceptional talents available at the top, with a large number of potentially useful core contributors, with a ton of really interesting skilled swings to be taken through the 2nd round. I've really been impressed with the European crop of talent this year especially, and I'm excited to track their careers as they develop.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

So, I won't bore you further. Check out the full rankings below!

The Watchlist

Daniel Ljungman was a guy who I've been keeping tabs on a bit, and I really like how he can navigate through the neutral zone and attack the net. I think he's a long term project, but he's hit the ground running this year.
Mitchell Miller is on the watchlist. If he falls endlessly due to off ice issues, he could be a guy you look at late, but those issues are troublesome in the least and you'll really have to do your homework. He's a well-rounded, explosive defenseman, but I can't recall a draft prospect ever came with the documented legal issues that Miller does.
Ty Jackson is a fun USHL re-entry. Just 13 days older than Jack Quinn but he's Small, but shifty, quick, and makes a creative team with his twin brother Dylan. He's an exciting player, and will certainly have my eye on him at Northeastern.
Josh Lawrence is a hard-working quick centre who seems to have a game that's 85% of the way to being great. He puts in the work on his feet at both ends, he can use crossovers and power his way into the neutral zone to facilitate transitions, but controlling pucks and working with his hands and feet in tandem at a high pace needs to come a ways. I think he's a fun long term bet, similar to Xavier Simoneau last season.
Danil Alalykin is just a ton of fun to watch. Crafy with his hands under high pressure, excellent goal scoring ability in tight, and likely a member of his KHL team when he returns from injury.
I'll totally credit David St. Louis over at EliteProspects for bringing up Christopher Merisier-Ortiz. He's right up my alley for skilled and agile offensive defenders. His data looked good last year, he kept it up this year, and I could easily use a later pick on him.
People seem to pick up NTDP guys they just really like for various reasons, and mine is Landon Slaggert. He seems bigger than his listed size and moves with a lot of power around the ice. Really raw and had some trouble attacking the net and driving offense, but I liked his transition game and footwork moving offensively with the puck.

Tier 8 - The Curious Cases

I just really like Benjamin Baumgartner. He's so much fun with his agility, offensive positioning, and aggression with the puck. He played in the NLA, and was one of the best generators of high danger shot attempts in all my tracking this year.
Dylan Peterson is similar to Landon Slaggert mentioned earlier. Their ability in transition remind me of John Beecher, but putting offense together is an issue for both. Peterson has some great moments combining his size, crossovers, and his puck protection skill, but doesn't seem to cook much of a dinner with it. Great raw tools and a great project, so I could see him going much earlier.
Lukas Svejkovsky is a guy I really believe in. Good enough skater, fun skill at a variety of paces, drove the 5th most individual high danger shot attempts in my sample, with the 13th most dangerous pass attempts/60. More offensive leaning, but there's potential, I think.
Juuso Mäenpää is a firecracker. Skilled as it gets, can be highly creative in the offensive zone, but so, so small. He's so small. A total longshot, but he could be a great story. He's quick and skilled, but will need to be even quicker to cover his lack of length, let alone the physical strength and resiliency on the puck that he'll have to develop.
Victor Mancini is a fascinating study of a USHL prospect deciding to spend his junior career in Sweden. I think it shows great maturity and outside the box thinking to trust what developmental system suits you best. He's playing top pair minutes, has improved his offense already this year, and if he can get a bit smoother on his feet and relaxed on the defensive side of the puck, he could be a very curious bet long term. He faced the 53rd least defensive transitions of all players tracked (i.e., a high workload), but had the 13th least controlled defensive transitions, putting his DCZT% at 5th in my tracking.

Tier 7 - The Potential Contributors

Tristen Robins is a guy who I wanted to do a full profile on, but the more I saw, the less I felt I could really bring up about him. He's an exciting offensive forward, but his potential at centre feels limited. I don't see the work rate off the puck yet, but his explosive stride and offensive work rate brings promise. A talented off-puck scorer as well, he could be a nice complimentary piece.
I've just really liked Maxim Groshev for what he is. He works hard, plays hard, drives solid play around the net, and is playing a solid role in the KHL.
Ryan O'Rourke might be one of the most misidentified players in the draft when I look at the data. I don't see a tremendous defensive player, but his ability to pass the puck into the NZ is impressive, and he can step up in the offensive zone often to push for chances himself. I question his mobility and processing of play at higher pace, but he could be an interesting project.
The more I watched Lukas Cormier, the less projectable I find his game. Lots of skill and a solid passing profile in transition, but I'm just not sure it's enough to overcome his defensive limitations and size deficiency.
Speaking of size deficiency, I'm more interested in Anton Johannesson. Ruthless passer all over the ice, great skill to open up passing lanes and open up the ice a bit, with daring thought processing that might need refinement, but he's a creative player that could fall far more than he should.
I've really enjoyed watching Ryan Francis. Really interesting player that slowed down the back half. Hard worker with really interesting speed and skill that could overcome the strength deficiencies he shows.
Thomas Bordeleau's offensive game on it's own would probably be enough to put him in a tier higher, but his skating, pace, and defensive pursuit play all give me pause. Tremendously creative offensive player with great skill, but he's a bit of a project in terms of a full 200 foot impact player.
In a similar vein, Tyson Foerster is right in that Bordeleau wheelhouse. Defensive play needs to come a ways, but once the puck is in the offensive zone, he becomes a dangerous offensive generator through passes and shots. There's potential, but not sure it's quite enough to be a 1st round pick.

Tier 6 - Contributors and Big Swings

I'm not a "Zion Nybeck is underrated" guy, but I think he has potential to overcome his shortcomings. He adapts to heavy pressure well, and shows interesting creativity and is certainly not selfish with the puck. When he chips in on defensive transitions, he's able to strip pucks off opponents well enough. Big time longshot, but there are reasons he's an SHL player this year.
Guhle/Schneider will be gone well before I'm ready to pick them. I think they'll both get plenty of chances to play in the NHL, and they could be solid impact players defensively, but beyond that, I have big questions.
I'm pro-Jean-Luc Foudy. I don't care what anyone else things. The raw tools and potential value he could add to an offense is hard to ignore. He's so much fun, so fast, generates tremendous offensive transition data, and drove way more play that could've led to production than his point output would indicate.
Emil Heineman has climbed and climbed. I think he's got middle six winger potential. A real wrecking ball with some finesse around the net. I like his work rate and smooth skating talent a little more than someone like Torgersson, he just feels more projectable. Finer points with regards to clogging up the neutral zone and reading opposing offenses is a work in progress, but his trajectory since last season has been exceptional.
Brendan Brisson is an interesting cowboy hockey case. Excellent dangerous offense, awful dangerous defense. He's inactive and careless away from the puck, but he's brilliant per puck touch with excellent well-rounded offensive ability. I could easily see him ranked much higher than this, but personally I just think his game is a little too limited for anything higher than the mid-20s. Could it get there? Sure, but a middle six offensive forward with defensive shortcomings feels more likely.
Speaking of players that could go much higher, I'd admit that Jeremie Poirier is ranked very low, but this tier spreads into the 1st and I'd consider it if I had a confident development staff. His defensive game is... bad. Positioning, pursuit, physical work rate, it's just not there. One of the few players I'd call "selfish" with the puck too often. I find his skating and speed generation is a little overrated, his offensive transition game is measurably worse than many defenders higher than him (a trait shared by Emil Andrae), and I just have trouble seeing a trajectory for him long term that likely leaves him as a top end defender. Great lateral mobility and tremendous skill, but just so, so many question marks.
Alex Pashin is as big a home run swing as it gets, but a well rounded offensive firecracker who works his tail off every shift with great quickness, skill and creativity is something right up my alley. He's years away from NHL success, but he's already pushing for a role in the KHL with a very strong group of 2001 and 2002 kids from Ufa. Similar to Johannesson, he'll be available later than he should in all liklihood.

Tier 5 - Scorers and Upside

Looking back at my data, I'm still dumbfounded at some of the offensive results Lukas Reichel generated. He could be one of the better complimentary scorers to come out of this draft. His instincts are outstanding in open space and he constantly finds ways to drive offense. He's still at the top of my tracking in individual high danger shot generation, and was a primary source for offensive chances on Berlin.
Jacob Perreault could very well be pitched to me at a higher slot. He has so much talent with his skill, ability to drive up the middle of the ice or use the boards to his advantage, he's a creative playmaker with a great shot on top of it. More confidence with the puck to push his shot volume closer to the net would do him well, and he'll need to learn some lessons about a full 200-foot effort, but the talent is undeniable.
Ozzy Wiesblatt was a guy who blew me away after tracking him. There's just so much potential there if he fills out a bit and can shore up his game when the puck is on the other team's sticks. He's relentlessly focused on attacking, generate a ton of offensive threat, and if you liked Seth Jarvis and can't land him, Wiesblatt is not a bad consolation that could be available much later.
On that note, Daniil Gushchin is one of the most exciting players available. His two-way game is underrated, his results were excellent, he scores and sets up some highlight reel goals, and he could easily come out as one of the steals of the draft if he can get a bit stronger on his feet and cut down on the mental lapses with the puck to keep his transition game a bit simpler at times.
Jan Mysak landed the first "Mr. Overrated" award, but he's still a very good hockey player. I have big questions about how he projects as his game is now, but he flashed some real potential in transition with his skill, agility and straight line speed. Putting the pieces together especially with the puck in the offensive zone seems to be an issue at 5v5, but he could be a great bet in the 2nd round should he slip a bit.

Tier 4- Potential Core Players

I'm not sure what else I can say about Marat. He's the "Mr. Stick Your Neck Out" this year, and he'll be a fascinating case study for me to look back on. I adore his approach to the game and he's exactly what I look for in a centre. He's extremely raw, but the raw tools when he showcases his best hockey are absolutely disgusting. He's fast, skilled, selfless with the puck, and drives tremendous defensive results with a great transition game to go with it. Constantly involved in play, constantly supporting his line, constantly anticipating play, I just can't not love his game.
I could be convinced to swing on Jake Sanderson much earlier than 14, no question. He's a great transition defender with excellent shut down talent through the neutral zone. I think the offense is there, but he's a great example of a modern defensive defender. Shut down play to avoid defensive cycles in the first place, turn the puck around, and get it into the offensive zone with control. He's very good at it, and I think better than his production indicates. Top 5 pick? Probably not to me, but the later part of the Top 10? We can chat
I haven't been particularly thrilled with Noel Gunler now that I've seen more of other players, looking back at my video clips, and seeing him play in the early parts of the SHL season. He could be a good middle six two-way winger with offensive flair, and his results weren't bad at all, but his defensive game is hit or miss, and his involvement in play is also very inconsistent. He could be a good bet in the 20s, but I'm not sure I see him as that Top 15 talent that I had all season.

Tier 3 - Should-Be Core Players

I'm a believer in Askarov, and if he's ranked similarly to an Anton Lundell, would you rather land a potential very good #2 or 3 centre? Or gamble on a potential franchise goaltender? I may not fully understand what I'm looking at with Askarov, but I like what I see. He's calm, collected, covers the net effectively, has the athleticism to cover cross-ice play extremely well, and is already a core piece in the KHL at 18 years old. If he starts slipping, he quickly becomes potentially excellent value in my opinion.
Holtz's tracked data was... bad, but on the bright side, if there's a player I trust shooting from everywhere, it's him. His skating and work rate is good enough where I'm not concerned about his ability to get himself into scoring position either, but I'm not sure he's a player you build a team around. Excellent scorer, unbelievable shot, dangerous from anywhere.
I like Rodion Amirov more and more the more I see him. Just such a rock solid hockey player with the skill and agility to be an aggressive scorer once he gets a bit stronger and more confident. I think there's a really bright future for him, and drafting him ahead of names like Lundell and Askarov is an argument I have time for in this tier.

Tier 2 - Top End Pieces

Yep, Marco Rossi's still #3. He's been given a bit of a run by Raymond recently, but I'm holding fast on this one. I have tons of hope for Rossi to be a remarkable NHL centre that overcomes the criticisms leveled his direction.
Lucas Raymond is a very good hockey player, and he always was. If he's available outside the Top 5, you pick him. Arguably the smartest two-way mind in the draft, arguably the most explosive first couple steps on top of that, and drove remarkable defense-first results in the SHL in limited usage. I'm a huge, huge fan.
Tim Stutzle has the potential to score plenty of points, that much is clear. I still don't understand the idea that he's the 2nd best prospect available, and I don't understand the idea of him being a centre one day. He overcommits with and without the puck often, he doesn't adapt to pressure with intelligence, rather trying to force his way through with whatever seems to come to mind. He can get boxed out a bit easily, and I just see a bit more in Rossi and Raymond that I like.
These guys could be ordered any way and I'd understand the rationale, but I look for full, 200 foot overall impact on the flow of play, and I see a bit more in the guys at 3 and 4 than I do at 5, but 5 could certainly score lots and lots, which is what many people are looking for.

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...
This has been talked to death, but it's never changed to me. These two are the best two options available. Lafreniere is the better player today, but Byfield shows unbelievable potential to be a premier franchise centre with a skillset everyone wishes they had more of.
Both of these will be as good as their minds want to take them. Putting in a full 200 foot effort every possible shift on the ice could make these two players special, and I think they both have it in them.

Overall Thoughts

I'm just excited and anxious about all of it being over at this point. I'm not really sure what else to say. I hope you have fun, I hope your team gets all the players you want them to get, try to be kind to each other and these kids, and it's time to raise some money!

Scouching's Kinda-Early 2020 Final-ish Ranking Maybe?

4/20/2020

Well it's that time again. With all the uncertainty in the world, we're kinda getting an NHL playoff I suppose, and the draft has been pushed back. In a weird stroke of luck, the extra preparation time has been a huge opportunity to keep refining data and getting a wider and better sample of this draft class. This is the first installment of a full list of 111 players I usually rank, plus a 25 player Watchlist full of guys that check some boxes either analytically and/or with the old-fashioned e y e t e s t. Why 111, you ask? Because it's 1 three times and I make the rules. Thing do get significantly more blenderized in my head beyond 93, but nitpick if you dare.

In my rankings things have changed significantly since November. The gap between the 11-20 range has widened to really encompass my 11-30 range, and you could seriously make an argument to me to take any of those players. I obviously have my preferences and they're ordered as such, but it's a very interesting year to have many picks in the top three rounds. It's a fascinating group of players, and when considering all available factors, it's really hard to nail down specific order of player's I'd select, and frankly I think that's okay. How teams develop and form them into the future role they can fit into is what will separate this class, but there's tons to play around with.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Without further ado, behold an early-final rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft, along with explanations of some the decisions made. As always, thank you all for your support, I hope you and yours are safe and well and remain so.

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

This one isn't complicated and shouldn't surprise you. People who are down on Byfield all of a sudden are either overvaluing the World Juniors, overvaluing his shortcomings, which do exist, and are also wrong.
Byfield is a player that is nearly a full year younger, and while he can't match Lafrenière's team shot attempt rates while on the ice at either end, he's showing much more of a playmaker tendency with 15.7 dangerous pass attempts/60 to Lafrenière's 9.4, and outpaces Lafrenière's offensive threat metric by a hair (22.2 vs. 21.4).
Last season, Lafrenière was in the exact same boat as Byfield at the World Juniors. A year later, he's the MVP. Does Byfield have holes in his game? Sure, but a 6'4" 17 year old who skates like Byfield does, shoots like he does, makes plays like he does and shows skill like he does don't grow on trees. He may need time, but there's absolutely a solid probability that Byfield turns into a more valuable player across the full rink.
...But Alexis Lafrenière is still extremely good, and he should be NHL good immediately. He's skilled, he plays hard, he can shoot, he can make plays, he's basically a player I think Hockey Canada goes to bed at night dreaming about. He can be a frustrating player to me with his body language, his tendency to park himself high at defensive bluelines or the neutral zone, and getting too aggressive from time to time (he was thrown out of one of the games I tracked for elbowing a defender in the face), but he has all the potential to be a premiere offensive winger with a bit of a swagger to him at both ends.

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Gunler and Holloway have dropped out and Amirov has popped in since November, but this is a very, very close group that will largely come down to fit down the road.
I still might be the biggest Marco Rossi fan out there. I love nearly everything this guy does on the ice, and I think there's tremendous potential if you give him time to build strength and experience.
That being said, at 3-5, you could convince me to swing on any of the three I have ranked. I think Raymond will be a tremendous two-way winger, Stützle will at least be an electrifying offensive winger, and Rossi could be a top level quarterback with a huge toolbox to play with.
From Perfetti onwards, it's really about what style of player you're looking for.
Perfetti has skating concerns, but I believe there's more than enough skill, edgework, and creativity to make it work.
Jamie Drysdale may not be a top pair in your face and in the highlight reel type of defenseman, but he should be able to eat minutes in a variety of situations without much issue, especially in transition.
Holtz is a player with many data-focused issues in my work, but he feels like a player that will go against what the data indicates. His shot is electrifying, and his skating ability is more than enough to chip in away from the puck. Like I said many times in the report, if there's anyone I want shooting from non-dangerous areas, it's Holtz, but shot selection improvements might make him one of the more lethal goal scorers in this generation of talent.
Lundell is a rock solid NZ play facilitator. Extremely refined and responsible in his own end, underrated offensively, and great at applying pressure away from the puck. There's are reasons he was among the leaders in Liiga shot attempt differentials. While Lundell might not be a player I saddle with expectations of a decade as my #1 centre, a highly responsible middle six centre who could reasonably play any minutes imaginable and drive good results is fine by me.
I'm a goalie skeptic, especially in the 1st round, but I will refuse to undervalue a potential #1 goaltender. They make your coaches, players, and general managers look like geniuses year after year. Askarov is playing at a level no other goalie has before at his age, for a team that has every reason to play him on one of their two junior level teams, he's stopped pucks at the men's league level, and has been excellent at every international tournament except the World Juniors. I'll forgive that one tournament and look at the plethora of evidence that if you're going to bet on a goalie, he's as good a bet as you'll find.

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

There he is. M A R A T. I constantly look for players that I'd rather have ahead of him, and the list keeps getting shorter and shorter. Khusnutdinov is a late July baby who worked his way from bottom six minutes with SKA's top MHL team to being a first line centre with some of the best 5v5 metrics of any draft eligible out of the MHL. He drives tremendous amounts of controlled offensive transitions, makes an astounding number of passes for a centre, and is a premier offensive conduit for his team. He caught my eye at the U18s last year, and I'm pretty sure his 2020 U18 would've made him a more common 1st round ranked player. He plays the way I want my centres to play. Speedy, engaged, aggressive, and some brilliant skill at times. I think he's a player you bet on. A player you let develop and get stronger over time. He's got the skating, the skill, the smarts, and the motor to put together an excellent NHL career at both ends of the ice.
I've seen more and more of the light on Jake Sanderson, but he's only ranked here because I do think it's rare to find defenders as well refined in defensive transitions as Sanderson. At time of writing, he breaks up defensive transitions 74% of the time when he gets involved. That is simply outstanding. The next highest metric in a decent sample is Emil Andrae's 70%, but it's a very small list after that. I still question how valuable that skill will be over time as the game speeds up, but Sanderson's offensive game is noteworthy as well, with a higher share of shot attempts coming from dangerous areas than Alexander Holtz, and more dangerous pass attempts per 60 5v5 minutes than Dylan Holloway. The question will be "what am I passing on if he's my guy?" The answer could be wildly different if you're looking at him 15th overall, or 5th.
Seth Jarvis in my data is a no-nonsense offensive dynamo. Shot attempts, dangerous passing, everything. He's out there focused on doing things that lead to offense. I'm not sure he's got enough defensively to be reliable, and I don't buy that he's as good as he was down the stretch, but a really intelligent offensive winger is never a bad swing to take.
This range has a lot of guys who show huge talent in flashes to my eye, almost from top to bottom. I still believe that there's a chance William Wallinder is the most electrifying defender to come out of this draft at the end of the day. He has major issues, but his pros of age, size, skating and skill are just such a great package to build on over time.
The guys I have ranked highest relative to average rankings seem to be somewhat undersized scoring wingers, who are often the guys who slip too far in the draft. It seems like I'm the biggest Daniil Gushchin, Alexander Pashin, Ozzy Wiesblatt, and Lukas Reichel fan out there.
I love Gushchin's all around offensive game when he's really going. He needs to get stronger on his feet, but his skill can humiliate opponents, and he drives dangerous shooting and passing better than almost everyone I've tracked thus far.
Pashin is a player that I fully admit is a risk. I just think he's a perfect example of an undersized player that overcomes their lack of size. He's fast, extremely skilled, moves pucks up the ice with control, and when things go wrong, I can't help but think more training and reps on the ice will help him over time. Bobbling pucks and being too patient are things you can coach and train him through. I'm willing to bet on his feet, hands and brain to turn him into an effective scoring winger at some point.
Wiesblatt is someone I went into tracking expecting to dislike, but I've only liked him more and more. At time of writing, he's controlled over 60% of the dangerous shot attempts on the ice, and every single shot attempt he has taken has been dangerous. 2/3 of them are taken from the slot area. In fact, he's had 9.3 high danger attempts per 60 minutes in my work. Lukas Reichel is the only other player over 8 in my tracking.
Speaking of Lukas Reichel, if he's a guy you can land in the 2nd, he could be an excellent complimentary scorer down the road. He's very smart away from the puck finding open space offensively and getting in position to register dangerous attempts. He isn't a particularly complex player, but he puts himself in a position to land points very well. I think there are flashes of a good transition player, and he kept up with Tim Stützle in a number of metrics, but when push comes to shove, he's doing a lot of very notable things against men.
Jean-Luc Foudy is in here at 31. He does so much on paper so well. In terms of controlling pucks up the ice with his own stick, I don't believe there's a better player available. Cole Perfetti generated about the same controlled offensive transitions per 60 minutes at 5v5, but Foudy generated many through his feet, while Perfetti used teammates very effectively and passed the puck far more often. Foudy is a risk, mostly due to his tendency to hang onto pucks forever, and his defensive play isn't great, but the guy was borderline untouchable at times in the offensive zone, and sent passes to dangerous areas over 19% more than any other CHL player I've tracked. If he can hold onto the puck to the point of frustration, but also sends a pass to the slot every three minutes of 5v5 ice time, completes passes over 75% of the time, and moves pucks as efficiently as anyone in the draft, then who's at fault for his lack of production? His profile is one I'd bet on after two years in the CHL with plenty of chances to get more experience.

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

This is where the real blenderization begins. I think this range of the draft is unbearably even. Names like Sam Colangelo, Braden Schneider, and Anton Johannesson could very easily be argued as the first names off the board on Day 2, or names that see themselves drop to round 3 in my view.
The more I see of Jérémie Poirier, the less I like. I feel as though his game took a step back over the season. He skates himself into trouble, his skating up the ice can be clunky, and his defensive game can be downright abysmal, but there's plenty of skill and mobility to bet on. He doesn't have the data that indicates he's extremely undervalued or likely to regress positively in my work, but what he does very well is very apparent. I just get the feeling he's going to be a tough, tough defenseman to develop into what he could be.
I'm a huge, huge fan of Joni Jurmo. He caught my attention early for his fast, skilled and aggressive offensive style, and while he has downsides to his game, he's a player that I would absolutely love to have as a power play quarterback with great 5v5 instincts with the puck. He might be one of the best pure skaters among all defensemen this year, but he has work to do, especially in his own end. I'm excited to see him with JYP next season, and you should be too. He's another player I'm pretty sure would've made a name for himself at the U18s.
Brett Berard might be one of the most quietly effective players in the draft. He's very close to being the "Mr. Scouch-a-lytics" for 2020. He controls 70% of the high danger chances on the ice. He moves pucks up the ice with control 80% of the time. He has 44 controlled offensive defensive blueline transitions/60 at 5v5. That beats everyone so far by 31%. He isn't a fast player, but he plays smart, plays hard, and pushes play positively.
Samuel Knazko is a guy I've been a fan of all year. He's a very modern brand of defender. Highly active along offensive bluelines but has great mobility to cover his tracks. He's one of three players over 100 pass attempts/60 minutes at 5v5, and shuts down defensive transitions at around the 70% rate. He's another case of players who might have a certain narrative regarding aggression and risk, but in reality, is not much riskier than defensemen ranked much higher. He's a creative passer that absolutely needs work in his own end, but he is a defender who will defend by preventing the opponent from getting to the DZ in the first place.
Speaking of players who might not line up with a narrative, I wasn't a huge Braden Schneider fan in viewings, and the data isn't a whole lot better. He faces the 4th most shot attempts of any player I've tracked thus far, but thankfully the majority are low danger attempts. His high danger shot rate against is very low, but moving pucks up the ice with control is a difficulty relative to this cohort at 53%. Sanderson, Drysdale, Jurmo, Knazko, and Johannesson are all defenders ranked to this point that are over 66.7. He's just a guy that I think will get picked well before I'm prepared to do so.
It's impossible to talk about Braden Schneider without looking at Kaiden Guhle. I've warmed up to him in a sense, at least moreso than Schneider, but his rate of controlled offensive transitions is under 50% at present time, which is far from ideal, but his skating and defensive game feel more likely to translate without issue.
Anton Johannesson will be a fascinating player to keep an eye on going into and coming out of the draft. He's fought injuries over the last two seasons, but I'm of the belief that if he were healthy all season, and just a bit taller, we'd be looking at him in the early 2nd, and potentially the 1st round. He's small, but shifty and mobile. He isn't the fastest defender you'll see, but he's one of the most effective puck movers I've tracked. He completes more passes per 60 minutes than anyone else attempts. He has more dangerous pass attempts per 60 minutes than Marco Rossi, Alexis Lafrenière, and Kasper Simontaival. No other defenseman is even close.
Brandon Coe played on an awful team, but I saw him show exceptional skill for a big winger with solid skating on his edges. He's on my list to track, but I've really liked what I've seen.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov is in here, and I still believe people aren't seeing the forest through the trees. He started as a bottom six forward with Sibir after turning 17 in July, and had one of the best draft eligible years in the MHL. He only got better and better as the year went on, and his skating, shot selection, and creativity lead me to believe that patience will be rewarded if he's your guy. A real long term project that I'm sticking my neck out for, but I really love the potential he brings.

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

This was a tough tier. A lot of these guys I see flashes of, and many are players whose data I've gathered and tracked haven't met expectations.
Everyone loves Antonio Stranges skill, and granted, the data I've tracked is very good, but I'm really unsure that there's going to be a great professional player here. His skating can be questionable, he isn't extremely active away from the puck, and I just get the feeling that his junior career could be excellent, but projecting his game is difficult.
Martin Chromiak is a guy I was excited to track when seeing how his data translated to Kingston, but I really question where his game will go over time. He's a solid option to flow pucks through in offensive transitions, and he can be a dangerous player in the offensive zone, but his skating isn't great, he misses a ton of his passes, and creates far too many uncontrolled offensive transitions for my liking. I think he'll get picked before I'm ready, but in this range he could potentially be a good role player as a catch and pass player who trails an offensive rush looking to make a play at the last second.
Daniel Torgersson is very much in the same boat. Decent skill for a big winger, but again, another role player at the end of the day. If it's me, I get Torgersson to the net away from the puck, keep finding open space, create screens, and use his skill in tight to either slap rebounds in the net or get pucks to open ice in the dangerous areas.
Eamon Powell and Brock Faber are lower ceiling players to me, but with Powell's intelligence and skill, and Faber's skating and reach, both could be interesting long term bets.
Benjamin Baumgartner is legit, I think. He took massive steps this year since I peeked at him with Austria's U20 team. He plays ~10 5v5 minutes a game, on par with other tracked players in men's leagues, but was 6th in forward scoring, and my tracked data indicates a rock solid two-way centre, and at time of writing, he leads men's league players I've tracked in offensive threat, driven mostly by an outstanding 15 dangerous pass attempts/60.
I just really like Zayde Wisdom. He exudes work ethic with good skill. I found him to be a major, major reason Martin Chromiak looked so good paired with Shane Wright. That unit really looked like they clicked right away, and Wisdom was a huge part in that.
Guys like Cardwell, Svejkovsky, Francis, and Mäenpää are big, big swings on skill. Mäenpää is small, and looks/plays like it. It's an issue for sure, but he's extremely quick, extremely agile, and somehow still manages to get 43% of his shot attempts from high danger areas. Only Benjamin Baumgartner and Ozzy Wiesblatt surpass those metrics with 44% and 66.7%(!) respectively.
I really like Marko Stacha. Not sure exactly why, and I need to track some data, but I liked him at the World Juniors, and I've really liked him playing against men in Slovakia. He's a good skater with a solid defensive brain and offensive flashes of skill.
Dylan Peterson is a tremendous player to watch, but he's almost all tools right now. I find it hard to nail down exactly what kind of player he's going to be. His skill and skating for such a big forward is really desirable, but he had trouble in his own end this year, and I found many plays to die on his stick in the offensive zone with a lack of awareness, adaptability, and dynamic ability to his game.

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

Pavel Tyutnev barely plays, but his results when he plays can be excellent. He's resilient with the puck, creative offensively, completes over 80% of his passes, and takes 40% of his shot attempts from high danger. If he's available at pick 217, you could do much worse.
Trineyev and Zlodeyev are guys I've only recently begun to dig into, but with Trineyev's combination of skating and size, and Zlodeyev's creativity and quarterback potential, I've been a fan.
Wyatt Kaiser can skate. If you want to bet on skating, he's a great option. Same goes for Ronan Seeley.
Alexander Nikishin had decent flashes, but I really do not know why he played so much in the KHL this year. He seemed overwhelmed with the pace of play, but his hands and physical ability was fun, I guess.
Everyone has been asking me if Cale Makar 2.0 is Michael Benning. I'm about 99.9% sure he is not. I haven't enjoyed the AJHL as a whole, and Sherwood Park seemed like a team that egged the opponent into 4 on 4 situations through penalty shenanigans, where Benning would send stretch passes to Carter Savoie at the offensive blueline, and would score one of their 6 goals of the night. Of course I'm oversimplifying, but this has happened in many of the games I've tracked and watched, and I'm really not sure about either one of those players, doubly so after the World Junior A Challenge.
Victor Mancini is a kid I want to meet and get to know. The decision to skip on the USHL and live in Gothenburg to play with Frölunda as a 17 year old is a very mature decision to me. I've read that he's only looking for the best possible path for him, and he picked a good one. It's unconventional, but I believe it's a good thing. He shuts down 70% of transitions coming his way, maintains control in 70% of offensive transitions, and while he has some mobility concerns defensively, he's a guy I think you could buy low on and let play in college with a modern program like Omaha's.

The Watchlist

These are just fun players I've caught over the year that might be fun shots in the dark down the road.
NOTE: I've edited this list on June 19th to remove Matvei Bannikov and Aleksei Sinkkonen. I really like the potential of both players, but I realized they may be more "probably undrafted but they're on the list to keep an eye on next year", rather than "late round actual potential swings". They've been replaced with Karri Aho and Albert Lyckåsen.
I'm a believer in Brady Burns and especially Josh Lawrence. If Lawrence's hands can catch up to his feet, he could be quite a player. He's quick, works hard, and is aggressive away from the puck. Similar to Tyutnev, you could do worse at pick 217. Same goes for Alex Gaffney, while we're at it.
I don't know why Landon Slaggert isn't scoring more, but he's a guy I constantly notice on the NTDP when my tracked player is off the ice. There's skill there, he's a June baby, and he plays big. I usually let the data do the talking, but he's a guy I've liked this year.
Mitchell Smith you say? Well... He's one of the most aggressive offensive defensemen I've ever seen play the game. He has the most individual high/medium danger shot attempts per 60 of any defenseman I've tracked with 5.17, beating Ryan O'Rourke's 4.99. His skating is fine, and while his aggression can lead to odd man rushes against, he has faced the third least shot attempts against of the defenders I've tracked this year. He may be Justin Bergeron 2.0, but he's most definitely fun to watch and has decent results to go with it.
Vladimir Mashkov is the king of "doing nothing but creating chances". 18.1 dangerous pass attempts/60 is second only to Jean-Luc Foudy's 21.2, and he does it while playing highly limited minutes on a good Omsk roster. Outside of that, I like his edges and mobility, but he's as much of a project as you'll find.
Yes, Shakir is in here. He's almost a meme at this point, but I see him show nice tools with his feet and hands, but that's about it. His decisionmaking and defensive awareness is simply not good enough, and at the moment, it completely outweighs whatever tools he displays. If an NHL team wants to swing on him in the 1st round, so be it, but he relinquishes zone transitions extremely poorly, and hands possession over with ease. These are things I do not want my defensemen to be doing, regardless of how good their feet and hands are.
Carter Savoie is only on here because of what happens when he gets his head in the game. I've rarely caught him backchecking, let alone entering the defensive zone, and while his shot and skill is a ton of fun at it's best, I just don't think this is a player I'm jumping at the chance to add to my pipeline. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not the only one.
Maxim Musorov continues to fly under the radar due to him playing in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, but I've really liked his game. He's slippery, quick, and I thought he looked really good leading Kazakhstan's world junior team.
Yegor Suchkov is one of the younger re-entries out there, but I love how much fun he is to watch. He's small, but skilled and agile, and managed to show well at the VHL level.
Everyone loves Dmitri Sheshin, and while I'm still skeptical of his pro upside, he should probably have been drafted last year, and his skill is undeniable.
I'm just really liked watching Mateusz Szurowski, and Ivan Zivlak. They're interesting long term projects with measured success in various levels. Albert Lyckåsen is an aggressive offensive defender I've loved for his attacking mentality and how exciting his skating can be, especially in the offensive zone.

Final Notes

That's it. That's the list. I want to note that there's been some discussion recently surrounding length of lists and their usefulness. I've been told that many scouts and teams have lists as small as half the length as mine. I'm still confident in the overall list of players I have ranked, but I completely understand the point of view. My rankings are split into tiers to group players together based on a general feel for talent, and I fully admit that past a certain point, you have to shrug and take your best swing. It's pretty apparent that I value pure, raw talent, regardless of risk. Every pick carries risk, but believing in every player you pick, properly identifying their strengths and weaknesses, and putting them on an achievable trajectory to NHL success is the part that can separate a steal from just another 5th round pick. Give me four lines that can go out, generate offense, suppress defense, and score goals. I don't care as much about how the results are generated, but I do care that the players can do all of those things, especially at 5v5. Even if they have that profile at a lower level, isolating how they're generating those results, and trying to project them is vital to how I value a player. Players have some leeway in this area, but this is the whole reason I evaluate the way that I do. Results based data leads to interesting case studies, data tracking isolates what is happening when the player is playing, and video indicates what might or might not be projectable or going right or wrong.

All this being said, if you have any questions about anything, please don't hesitate to reach out on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube or email. There is a piece coming somewhat soon exploring my general philosophy, so stay tuned for that! More Scouching Reports are on the way as well.

If you liked what I do, please consider becoming a Scouch Potato on whatever platform you're comfortable. Patrons get early access to videos, exclusive data visualizations, written Scouching reports, a private Discord server and plenty of other fun things, but YouTube, Twitter and Instagram would all love to have you too.

Be well and stay safe.
- Will

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The NHL CSS List is Out. Here are my Thoughts.

1/13/2020

The NHL Central Scouting Midterm list is now online and viewable, so if you haven't checked it out yet, definitely do so here before reading further. You don't have to, it just might be good to familiarize yourself, but I'm not the police, so I won't come after you.

Understanding NHL Central Scouting's philosophy is an... interesting exercise. There's a clear preference towards size, a bit of a tendency to value older players, and splitting the players into North American and European skaters goaltenders makes it difficult to understand the landscape as a whole. That doesn't mean we can't explore some cases that are, in my humble opinion, either overvalued, or in many cases undervalued. So behold, three players I'm currently highest and lowest on relative to the NHL Central Scouting List, as well as some honourable mentions.

Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Metric	Value
NHLeS	17.80
INV%	17.45%
ES P1/60	0.51
ESGF/60	2.33
ESGA/60	1.70
OffCat%	6.35%
DefCat%	5.11%

This one is a bit of a given, based on the analytical work I do, but I have a hard time agreeing with Guhle being a legitimate top talent coming out of this draft. It can certainly be seen that considering Guhle's size and playing style, he isn't the prototypical 6'6" bus on skates that a team hopes turns into Zdeno Chara. Guhle is a surprisingly mobile player who can certainly hold his own in all three zones. It's just a question of upside to me. My viewings of Guhle indicate a player focused more on chasing hits near the blueline in lieu of making a simpler play that maintains position between himself and the middle of the ice. His play with the puck is often somewhat uninspiring and can lead to failures exiting the defensive end.

It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Metric	Value
NHLeS	23.91
INV%	17.45%
ES P1/60	2.04
ESGF/60	3.86
ESGA/60	1.47
OffCat%	3.76%
DefCat%	42.70%

Let me get this out of the way: I really enjoy watching Jack Quinn play hockey. Beyond that, his September 2001 birthday coupled with a much higher focus on goal scoring on a remarkably talented OHL team bring some questions to the table. He's very skilled and has good two-way metrics, but I'm skeptical of his long term outlook considering how impressive some players nearly a year younger (Brett Berard, Martin Chromiak, and Dmitri Ovchinnikov come to mind) have been. I'm always skeptical of players who don't generate assists as it implies that utilizing teammates in a system might not be a strong trait and that a sense of "dynamism" might be lacking.

Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Metric	Value
NHLeS	14.45
INV%	16.57%
ES P1/60	1.77
ESGF/60	3.07
ESGA/60	2.61
OffCat%	-23.84%
DefCat%	9.71%

I see the appeal of Will Cuylle. I really do. Good straight line speed, constantly applying pressure on teammates, loves the physical side of the game, he's a brand of player that I know teams still value highly. I just do not see his value being worth what a team might be willing to pay for. He's steadily improved this year after a bit of a slow start, but I don't see Cuylle being much more than an F3 who creates space for linemates through his physical play, and I'm not sure that's worth a 1st, 2nd, or depending on who's available, a 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If he continues to improve, he could come off this list, but I've also come away far more impressed with Jean-Luc Foudy in the times I've viewed the Spitfires, and Foudy is ranked just one spot ahead of Cuylle on the NHL's list.

Undervalued

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Metric	Value
NHLeS	8.48
INV%	12.24%
ES P1/60	1.05
ESGF/60	2.74
ESGA/60	2.53
OffCat%	11.39%
DefCat%	21.37%

Holloway's remarkable AJHL production hasn't followed him to a stacked Wisconsin offense, but I'm honestly not concerned. In my viewings, his power play time is restricted, he's playing down the linup a bit, and it feels as though the increased pace of play to the NCAA can be a bit much for the former AJHLer. His talent is undeniable though, and I've seen him take over shifts on his own more often than I've seen him disappear. He brings a great motor with a rangy two-way game with slick offensive tools. He's a player I'd certainly take my time with before taking him to the NHL, but I really do believe if the NHL believes he's the 10th best available North American, he could turn out to be a major steal of the draft if available in the late teens or early 20s.

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Metric	Value
NHLeS	18.67
INV%	31.45%
ES P1/60	1.59
ESGF/60	2.54
ESGA/60	1.69
OffCat%	-28.17%
DefCat%	38.15%

I personally find Simontaival a major boom or bust player. He's done very well on an extremely talented Tappara junior team with a proven track record against men from 2018-19's Mestis season. That being said, his talent level indicates that he should be clapping the Finnish junior leagues to pieces, but he's been inconsistent. Simontaival is an electrifying skater with wonderful skill and a great ability to get chances from high and medium danger areas. At the same time, he can be careless with the puck and can try to do a bit too much. Whether he stays with Tappara, or comes to North America, he has a whack of potential. A loan to KOOVEE of the Mestis has been promising for him with four points in six games, but as much raw skill and speed that Simontaival has, there's a possibility he's a very talented kid who just can't get over that final "hump" we see with so many skilled players as they develop into NHLers.

Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Metric	Value
NHLeS	15.89
INV%	16.02%
ES P1/60	1.62
ESGF/60	3.50
ESGA/60	1.62
OffCat%	-14.79%
DefCat%	26.11%

Joni Jurmo caught my eye very early in the year watching Jokerit's talented junior team. He's a big defenseman with remarkable mobility and great primary point production at even strength. His hands and ability to move puck into and through the neutral zone is excellent, which is exactly what I believe you need out of a modern defender. He cuts off zone transitions extremely well and chokes out breakouts while staying in position. Passing and carrying decisions are good, but he isn't the crispiest passing defensemen out there and can miss his target a bit more than I'd like. I could easily see a good minutes-eating defender down the line, especially if he slips into the middle rounds of the draft and you're willing to be patient and develop the profile he's exhibited so far.

Closing Thoughts

Trust me, there are many more. The NHL CSS rankings get a little bit hairy regarding players that are tough to view, in limited roles on their teams, or perform well in more subtle analytical data rather than raw point production. While that certainly doesn't render the CSS rankings moot, it is a reminder that it is important to use data and video work to supplement live viewings as much as possible to get a firm view on the players available in the draft.

If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.

Scouching's 2020 World Junior Championship Preview

12/21/2019

Just want the data? Fine. Click here. Or scroll down once the tournament begins and rosters are finalized.

It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.

It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected.

I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.

Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

I know I just mentioned that this year's tournament is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm relatively confident the Kazakhs are destined for relegation. Names like Artur Gatiyatov, Demid Yeremyev and Samat/Sayan Daniyar are gone, with names like Maxim Musorov, and Vladislav Nurek to replace them. I've seen Musorov and Guseinov play, and while they're good talents at the MHL level, most of these players hail from an MHL team that has won 9 of 42 games this year. Trouble is, they also cut Guseinov, a 45%INV player on that team that makes up a large portion of this one. I would be absolutely shocked if this team manages to save themselves in relegation against their likely German opponents.

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

A team that likely had the talent to be in this tournament last year, the Germans are a team I feel will likely be in the relegation group with Kazakhstan; not due to talent, but due to the logistics of the tournament. Of Canada, Russia, Czechia, and the USA, I have a hard time seeing them getting anywhere above last place in their group. It's possible that a top tier group of Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel, John-Jason Peterka, and Moritz Seider could upset a team or two if Hendrik Hane absolutely shuts the door, which I personally would greatly enjoy, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

The greatest coach in hockey has found new work with HC Davos, but last year's Cinderella story is back with another group that may not be able to recapture the magic from last year. Philipp Kurashev, a star in the 2019 tournament is now ineligible and off to a solid North American pro career with the AHL's Rockford Ice Hogs. There aren't a ton of names that could shock opponents as Switzerland has fallen off a little in recent years with regards to NHL draft output, but Tim Berni, Nico Gross, Valentin Nussbaumer, and undrafted not-goalie David Aebischer could all be contributors. Goaltender Luca Hollenstein has been a solid goaltender for Swiss junior teams, and if he can steal a game here or there again, anything is possible, even if he's 5'10".

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

The perennial quarterfinalists are back with another team with flashes of talent, but not a whole lot of real depth. I will say that I think this is a stronger team than usual. I'm extremely excited to see 2020 eligibles Samuel Knazko and a major sleeper for me in Marko Stacha hopefully play major roles. Maxim Cajkovic should be the top player on this team though. He's a true sniper with great skill, but his defensive shortcomings may be a bit exposed with a shallow defense and centre group. The thought of cutting Martin Chromiak is a perplexing one, but this should be a curious team for the Slovakians.

Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

The strength of the Finns this year will come from their depth. Justus Annunen has been great in the Liiga this year, and this tournament will be a major test of that success. The team on paper is headlined by Coyotes draft pick Matias Maccelli who has absolutely erupted for Ilves Tampere in the Liiga. His teammate Lassi Thomson will headline the defense with a rejuvenated Anttoni Honka, and notable Winnipeg Jet Ville Heinola. With Rasmus Kupari, the Räty brothers, the forward group should be solid as well, but I'm a bit hesitant to see if they repeat last year's success. It may come down to how Annunen plays, but you also can't ever count out the Finns and how they play the game. They're fast, they work as a unit, they play hard, can wear opponents down and can capitalize on your mistakes.

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

Here's where we start to get into the weeds a bit. With the way Russian teams "develop" their youth, NHLeS metrics can be artifically low for many Russian players, especially the youngest of the bunch. This year the Russian team is the oldest in the tournament by a third of a year, but there is plenty of talent all over this lineup that I think could easily threaten the best teams out there. If Yaroslav Askarov is the guy in net, he could be the star of the show. I usually don't touch goaltending much in my work, but Askarov is the only VHL goaltender under 18 years of age to play major minutes in recent memory and he's touched KHL ice with SKA St. Petersburg and did not look out of place. He's legit, and as good a bet at a #1 goaltender as you're going to get since Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's unbelievably athletic and technical, making the game look easy and being mature well beyond his years.

Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

Since the Swedes won the gold in 2012, they never missed medal contention until they got shut out by the Swiss last year. The trouble is that they haven't won the tournament since 2012 either and lost all three bronze medal games they competed in. They've reloaded their team for 2020 with an outstanding defense crop including Victor Söderström, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Rasmus Sandin, and Tobias Björnfot. That is a gross group of players to have moving pucks up the ice and controlling possession of the game. Any of the three goaltenders on their roster could be very solid as well.

The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

I'm just as surprised to see the Czechs have as high a score as they have, but with a number of good CHL players on the way, and one of the highest NHLeS' in the tournament in Jan Jeník leading the way, the Czechs could have a very impressive tournament after making it through the quarterfinals just once since 2005. Lukas Dostal was wonderful last season and should get his job back this year, but Nick Malik and Jan Bednar are two 2020 eligibles who are quite highly regarded as prospects.

Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.

The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

Hahahahahahaha this team is so loaded that you just have to laugh. The 2019 USA NTDP team headliners are almost all here they brought all their outsider friends too. Arthur Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, Bobby Brink, Zac Jones, Jordan Harris, etc. etc. etc. are a great group on their own, but adding Trevor Zegras, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Alex Turcotte, Beecher, and others from prior years is simply ridiculous. I know I was down on Spencer Knight last year, but this is why I'm outward about how goaltending is weird. He's been great with Boston College and internationally, so I expect nothing to change there. This is a dangerous team with at least three scary lines that could easily take this tournament, and the defense is a well rounded group of offensive talent and physical ability. Even the role players like Parker Ford, Curtis Hall and Jack Drury have been impressive players when I've seen them.

I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

Once again, the Canadian team is out front by quite a margin. The CHL is the best junior league program in the world, but I'm one of those people that firmly believes that European programs and players are continously catching up and underrated. That being said, Canada should still be the top team in this tournament. Their perennial weaknesses often are in net, and with their discipline on international ice. Last year's talent was somewhat light in premier offensive talent, but this year is quite the opposite. Canada's 2020 crop is outstanding and they've chosen to showcase Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Jamie Drysdale, and Dawson Mercer on this year's team. Byfield is a very large, very good skating creative offensive threat, Lafrenière is an absolute hound on the ice with remarkable skill and overall offensive ability, Drysdale is already a top two-way OHL defender, and Mercer is one of the more well-rounded finishers in the 2020 draft outside of the aforementioned Canadians.

The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.

I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.

Closing Thoughts

I really want to reiterate that this year really feels like an especially deep and talented pool of players that we'll get the privilege of watching in Czechia. There are legitimately 6 teams I could see having a good run at winning a medal, and really anything can happen at this tournament. Multiple teams have top level goaltending, multiple teams have top level offensive weapons, multiple teams are absolutely loaded on defense, and I honestly have a hard time actually being definitive about who is likely to finish where.

That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:

Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia

This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.

In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.

P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.

Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.

- Will

<<Previous

Forward>>

Welcome to the Blog.

1st Overall - Buffalo SabresWill Pick - Matthew BeniersGut Pick - Owen Power

2nd Overall - Seattle KrakenWill Pick - William EklundGut Pick - Matthew Beniers

3rd Overall - Anaheim DucksWill Pick - Luke HughesGut Pick - Brandt Clarke

4th Overall - New Jersey DevilsWill Pick - Brandt ClarkeGut Pick - Luke Hughes​

5th Overall - Columbus Blue JacketsWill Pick - Fabian LysellGut Pick - William Eklund

6th Overall - Detroit Red WingsWill Pick - Owen PowerGut Pick - Kent Johnson

7th Overall - San Jose SharksWill Pick - Jesper WallstedtGut Pick - Fabian Lysell

8th Overall - Los Angeles KingsWill Pick - Simon EdvinssonGut Pick - Dylan Guenther

9th Overall - Vancouver CanucksWill Pick - Kent JohnsonGut Pick - Mason McTavish

10th Overall - Ottawa SenatorsWill Pick - Mason McTavishGut Pick - Simon Edvinsson

11th Overall - Chicago BlackhawksWill Pick - Dylan GuentherGut Pick - Chaz Lucius

12th Overall - Calgary FlamesWill Pick - Logan StankovenGut Pick - Carson Lambos

13th Overall - Philadelphia FlyersWill Pick - Fyodor SvechkovGut Pick - Matthew Coronato

14th Overall - Dallas StarsWill Pick - Simon RobertssonGut Pick - Cole Sillinger

15th Overall - New York RangersWill Pick - Aatu RatyGut Pick - Zachary L'Heureux

The Watchlist

Tier 7 - The Cupcake Zone

Tier 6 - Curious Cases and Such

Tier 5 - The T a k e Zone

Tier 4 - A Bunch of Hockey Players

Tier 3 - The Consolation Prizes

Tier 2 - Still Tier 1B

Tier 1 - The Unchanged.

10. Germany (0-4-0-0)Pre-Tournament Rank - 10MVP: ​Bennet Roßmy

9. Latvia (0-4-0-0)Pre-Tournament Rank - 9MVP: Martins Lavins

8. Switzerland (1-4-0-0)Pre-Tournament Rank - 7​MVP: Dario Sidler

7. Czech Republic (1-3-0-1)Pre-Tournament Rank - 6MVP: Jakub Brabenec

6. Belarus (2-3-0-0)Pre-Tournament Rank - 8MVP: Danila Klimovich

5. United States (1-1-2-1)​Pre-Tournament Rank - 1MVP: Dylan Duke

4. Finland (3-2-1-1)​Pre-Tournament Rank - 5MVP: Ville Koivunen

3. Sweden (5-2-0-0)​Pre-Tournament Rank - 4MVP: Fabian Lysell

2. Russia (4-1-1-1)Pre-Tournament Rank - 3​MVP: Matvei Michkov

1. Canada (7-0-0-0)​Pre-Tournament Rank - 2MVP: Connor Bedard

Closing Thoughts

10. Germany - 7.14 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Bennett Rossmy (F)

9. Latvia - 4.59 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Gustavs Ozolins (D)

8. Belarus - 4.87 AvgNHLeS​Eyes On: Dmitri Kuzmin (D)

7. Switzerland - 8.91 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Dario Sidler (D)

6. Czech Republic - 7.68 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Jiri Tichacek (D)

5. Finland - 12.82 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Ville Koivunen (W)

4. Sweden - 11.45 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Elias Salomonsson (D)

3. Russia - 8.84 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Dmitri Katelevsky (F)

2. Canada - 21.46 AvgNHLeS (kinda.)Eyes On: Logan Stankoven (F)

1. United States (13.46 AvgNHLeS)Eyes On: Dylan Duke (C/RW)

Tier 1 - I Just Like 'em a Bit More...

Tier 2 - A.K.A. Tier 1B

Tier 3 - The Rock Solids

Tier 4 - Big Time Maybes

Tier 5 - The Meat of the Draft

Tier 6 - Big Bois and Big Swings

Tier 7 - Whipping Cupcakes

Tier 8 - Really Digging Deep...

The Watchlist

Tier 1 - ​¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tier 2 - ...More Like Tier 1B

Tier 3 - One Small Step Down

Overall Thoughts

The Watchlist

Tier 8 - The Curious Cases

Tier 7 - The Potential Contributors

Tier 6 - Contributors and Big Swings

Tier 5 - Scorers and Upside

Tier 4- Potential Core Players

Tier 3 - Should-Be Core Players

Tier 2 - Top End Pieces

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

Overall Thoughts

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

The Watchlist

Final Notes

Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert RaidersNHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67sNHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor SpitfiresNHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

1st Overall - Buffalo Sabres
Will Pick - Matthew Beniers
Gut Pick - Owen Power

2nd Overall - Seattle Kraken
Will Pick - William Eklund
Gut Pick - Matthew Beniers

3rd Overall - Anaheim Ducks
Will Pick - Luke Hughes
Gut Pick - Brandt Clarke

4th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Will Pick - Brandt Clarke
Gut Pick - Luke Hughes

5th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Will Pick - Fabian Lysell
Gut Pick - William Eklund

6th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Will Pick - Owen Power
Gut Pick - Kent Johnson

7th Overall - San Jose Sharks
Will Pick - Jesper Wallstedt
Gut Pick - Fabian Lysell

8th Overall - Los Angeles Kings
Will Pick - Simon Edvinsson
Gut Pick - Dylan Guenther

9th Overall - Vancouver Canucks
Will Pick - Kent Johnson
Gut Pick - Mason McTavish

10th Overall - Ottawa Senators
Will Pick - Mason McTavish
Gut Pick - Simon Edvinsson

11th Overall - Chicago Blackhawks
Will Pick - Dylan Guenther
Gut Pick - Chaz Lucius

12th Overall - Calgary Flames
Will Pick - Logan Stankoven
Gut Pick - Carson Lambos

13th Overall - Philadelphia Flyers
Will Pick - Fyodor Svechkov
Gut Pick - Matthew Coronato

14th Overall - Dallas Stars
Will Pick - Simon Robertsson
Gut Pick - Cole Sillinger

15th Overall - New York Rangers
Will Pick - Aatu Raty
Gut Pick - Zachary L'Heureux

10. Germany (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 10
MVP: Bennet Roßmy

9. Latvia (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 9
MVP: Martins Lavins

8. Switzerland (1-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 7
MVP: Dario Sidler

7. Czech Republic (1-3-0-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 6
MVP: Jakub Brabenec

6. Belarus (2-3-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 8
MVP: Danila Klimovich

5. United States (1-1-2-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 1
MVP: Dylan Duke

4. Finland (3-2-1-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 5
MVP: Ville Koivunen

3. Sweden (5-2-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 4
MVP: Fabian Lysell

2. Russia (4-1-1-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 3
MVP: Matvei Michkov

1. Canada (7-0-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 2
MVP: Connor Bedard

10. Germany - 7.14 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Bennett Rossmy (F)

9. Latvia - 4.59 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Gustavs Ozolins (D)

8. Belarus - 4.87 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Kuzmin (D)

7. Switzerland - 8.91 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler (D)

6. Czech Republic - 7.68 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Jiri Tichacek (D)

5. Finland - 12.82 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Ville Koivunen (W)

4. Sweden - 11.45 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Elias Salomonsson (D)

3. Russia - 8.84 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Katelevsky (F)

2. Canada - 21.46 AvgNHLeS (kinda.)
Eyes On: Logan Stankoven (F)

1. United States (13.46 AvgNHLeS)
Eyes On: Dylan Duke (C/RW)

Tier 1 - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Closing Thoughts

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)