A big reason why I'm such a fan of this tournament is because it can be messy, fun hockey that showcases just how bright the future of this game is. This season was not only no different, but felt like that was ratcheted up to 11 out of 10. Maybe it's the two year period it's been without this tournament, maybe it's the raw talent of the names coming to the NHL in the future, maybe it's that a number of high end players were able to play when they normally wouldn't, maybe it's all of the above, but this tournament was a heck of a show and I wish I could've been there. I won't waste a ton of time before breaking each team's effort down individually, but I also just want to mention that the U18 to me is just a nice tournament to casually evaluate specific cases, rather than making large judgements regarding a players game. It's short, many players have had tumultuous seasons, and lots of bounces going one way or the other can make a player seem much better or worse, so it's important to be careful when making observations. The way I see it, this tournament was a great experience to see cases who have caught my eye like Dmitri Kuzmin, Aleksi Heimosalmi, Ville Koivunen, and see what happens when their level of play is elevated to high end global talent, and what happens when they're on small ice. In some cases, my thoughts were confirmed. In others, it makes me want to go back and take another look. Which ones were which? Find out below! 10. Germany (0-4-0-0) |
Metric |
Value |
NHLeS |
17.80 |
INV% |
17.45% |
ES P1/60 |
0.51 |
ESGF/60 |
2.33 |
ESGA/60 |
1.70 |
OffCat% |
6.35% |
DefCat% |
5.11% |
This one is a bit of a given, based on the analytical work I do, but I have a hard time agreeing with Guhle being a legitimate top talent coming out of this draft. It can certainly be seen that considering Guhle's size and playing style, he isn't the prototypical 6'6" bus on skates that a team hopes turns into Zdeno Chara. Guhle is a surprisingly mobile player who can certainly hold his own in all three zones. It's just a question of upside to me. My viewings of Guhle indicate a player focused more on chasing hits near the blueline in lieu of making a simpler play that maintains position between himself and the middle of the ice. His play with the puck is often somewhat uninspiring and can lead to failures exiting the defensive end.
It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.
It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.
Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51
Metric |
Value |
NHLeS |
23.91 |
INV% |
17.45% |
ES P1/60 |
2.04 |
ESGF/60 |
3.86 |
ESGA/60 |
1.47 |
OffCat% |
3.76% |
DefCat% |
42.70% |
Let me get this out of the way: I really enjoy watching Jack Quinn play hockey. Beyond that, his September 2001 birthday coupled with a much higher focus on goal scoring on a remarkably talented OHL team bring some questions to the table. He's very skilled and has good two-way metrics, but I'm skeptical of his long term outlook considering how impressive some players nearly a year younger (Brett Berard, Martin Chromiak, and Dmitri Ovchinnikov come to mind) have been. I'm always skeptical of players who don't generate assists as it implies that utilizing teammates in a system might not be a strong trait and that a sense of "dynamism" might be lacking.
Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.
Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.
Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87
Metric |
Value |
NHLeS |
14.45 |
INV% |
16.57% |
ES P1/60 |
1.77 |
ESGF/60 |
3.07 |
ESGA/60 |
2.61 |
OffCat% |
-23.84% |
DefCat% |
9.71% |
I see the appeal of Will Cuylle. I really do. Good straight line speed, constantly applying pressure on teammates, loves the physical side of the game, he's a brand of player that I know teams still value highly. I just do not see his value being worth what a team might be willing to pay for. He's steadily improved this year after a bit of a slow start, but I don't see Cuylle being much more than an F3 who creates space for linemates through his physical play, and I'm not sure that's worth a 1st, 2nd, or depending on who's available, a 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If he continues to improve, he could come off this list, but I've also come away far more impressed with Jean-Luc Foudy in the times I've viewed the Spitfires, and Foudy is ranked just one spot ahead of Cuylle on the NHL's list.
Undervalued
Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11
Metric |
Value |
NHLeS |
8.48 |
INV% |
12.24% |
ES P1/60 |
1.05 |
ESGF/60 |
2.74 |
ESGA/60 |
2.53 |
OffCat% |
11.39% |
DefCat% |
21.37% |
Holloway's remarkable AJHL production hasn't followed him to a stacked Wisconsin offense, but I'm honestly not concerned. In my viewings, his power play time is restricted, he's playing down the linup a bit, and it feels as though the increased pace of play to the NCAA can be a bit much for the former AJHLer. His talent is undeniable though, and I've seen him take over shifts on his own more often than I've seen him disappear. He brings a great motor with a rangy two-way game with slick offensive tools. He's a player I'd certainly take my time with before taking him to the NHL, but I really do believe if the NHL believes he's the 10th best available North American, he could turn out to be a major steal of the draft if available in the late teens or early 20s.
Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23
Metric |
Value |
NHLeS |
18.67 |
INV% |
31.45% |
ES P1/60 |
1.59 |
ESGF/60 |
2.54 |
ESGA/60 |
1.69 |
OffCat% |
-28.17% |
DefCat% |
38.15% |
I personally find Simontaival a major boom or bust player. He's done very well on an extremely talented Tappara junior team with a proven track record against men from 2018-19's Mestis season. That being said, his talent level indicates that he should be clapping the Finnish junior leagues to pieces, but he's been inconsistent. Simontaival is an electrifying skater with wonderful skill and a great ability to get chances from high and medium danger areas. At the same time, he can be careless with the puck and can try to do a bit too much. Whether he stays with Tappara, or comes to North America, he has a whack of potential. A loan to KOOVEE of the Mestis has been promising for him with four points in six games, but as much raw skill and speed that Simontaival has, there's a possibility he's a very talented kid who just can't get over that final "hump" we see with so many skilled players as they develop into NHLers.
Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39
Metric |
Value |
NHLeS |
15.89 |
INV% |
16.02% |
ES P1/60 |
1.62 |
ESGF/60 |
3.50 |
ESGA/60 |
1.62 |
OffCat% |
-14.79% |
DefCat% |
26.11% |
Joni Jurmo caught my eye very early in the year watching Jokerit's talented junior team. He's a big defenseman with remarkable mobility and great primary point production at even strength. His hands and ability to move puck into and through the neutral zone is excellent, which is exactly what I believe you need out of a modern defender. He cuts off zone transitions extremely well and chokes out breakouts while staying in position. Passing and carrying decisions are good, but he isn't the crispiest passing defensemen out there and can miss his target a bit more than I'd like. I could easily see a good minutes-eating defender down the line, especially if he slips into the middle rounds of the draft and you're willing to be patient and develop the profile he's exhibited so far.
Closing Thoughts
Trust me, there are many more. The NHL CSS rankings get a little bit hairy regarding players that are tough to view, in limited roles on their teams, or perform well in more subtle analytical data rather than raw point production. While that certainly doesn't render the CSS rankings moot, it is a reminder that it is important to use data and video work to supplement live viewings as much as possible to get a firm view on the players available in the draft.
If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.
If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.
Just want the data? Fine. Click here. Or scroll down once the tournament begins and rosters are finalized.
It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.
It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected.
I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.
Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.
It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.
It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected.
I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.
Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.
#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)
I know I just mentioned that this year's tournament is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm relatively confident the Kazakhs are destined for relegation. Names like Artur Gatiyatov, Demid Yeremyev and Samat/Sayan Daniyar are gone, with names like Maxim Musorov, and Vladislav Nurek to replace them. I've seen Musorov and Guseinov play, and while they're good talents at the MHL level, most of these players hail from an MHL team that has won 9 of 42 games this year. Trouble is, they also cut Guseinov, a 45%INV player on that team that makes up a large portion of this one. I would be absolutely shocked if this team manages to save themselves in relegation against their likely German opponents.
#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)
A team that likely had the talent to be in this tournament last year, the Germans are a team I feel will likely be in the relegation group with Kazakhstan; not due to talent, but due to the logistics of the tournament. Of Canada, Russia, Czechia, and the USA, I have a hard time seeing them getting anywhere above last place in their group. It's possible that a top tier group of Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel, John-Jason Peterka, and Moritz Seider could upset a team or two if Hendrik Hane absolutely shuts the door, which I personally would greatly enjoy, but I'm not holding my breath.
This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.
This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.
#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)
The greatest coach in hockey has found new work with HC Davos, but last year's Cinderella story is back with another group that may not be able to recapture the magic from last year. Philipp Kurashev, a star in the 2019 tournament is now ineligible and off to a solid North American pro career with the AHL's Rockford Ice Hogs. There aren't a ton of names that could shock opponents as Switzerland has fallen off a little in recent years with regards to NHL draft output, but Tim Berni, Nico Gross, Valentin Nussbaumer, and undrafted not-goalie David Aebischer could all be contributors. Goaltender Luca Hollenstein has been a solid goaltender for Swiss junior teams, and if he can steal a game here or there again, anything is possible, even if he's 5'10".
#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)
The perennial quarterfinalists are back with another team with flashes of talent, but not a whole lot of real depth. I will say that I think this is a stronger team than usual. I'm extremely excited to see 2020 eligibles Samuel Knazko and a major sleeper for me in Marko Stacha hopefully play major roles. Maxim Cajkovic should be the top player on this team though. He's a true sniper with great skill, but his defensive shortcomings may be a bit exposed with a shallow defense and centre group. The thought of cutting Martin Chromiak is a perplexing one, but this should be a curious team for the Slovakians.
Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.
Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.
#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)
The strength of the Finns this year will come from their depth. Justus Annunen has been great in the Liiga this year, and this tournament will be a major test of that success. The team on paper is headlined by Coyotes draft pick Matias Maccelli who has absolutely erupted for Ilves Tampere in the Liiga. His teammate Lassi Thomson will headline the defense with a rejuvenated Anttoni Honka, and notable Winnipeg Jet Ville Heinola. With Rasmus Kupari, the Räty brothers, the forward group should be solid as well, but I'm a bit hesitant to see if they repeat last year's success. It may come down to how Annunen plays, but you also can't ever count out the Finns and how they play the game. They're fast, they work as a unit, they play hard, can wear opponents down and can capitalize on your mistakes.
#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)
Here's where we start to get into the weeds a bit. With the way Russian teams "develop" their youth, NHLeS metrics can be artifically low for many Russian players, especially the youngest of the bunch. This year the Russian team is the oldest in the tournament by a third of a year, but there is plenty of talent all over this lineup that I think could easily threaten the best teams out there. If Yaroslav Askarov is the guy in net, he could be the star of the show. I usually don't touch goaltending much in my work, but Askarov is the only VHL goaltender under 18 years of age to play major minutes in recent memory and he's touched KHL ice with SKA St. Petersburg and did not look out of place. He's legit, and as good a bet at a #1 goaltender as you're going to get since Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's unbelievably athletic and technical, making the game look easy and being mature well beyond his years.
Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.
Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.
#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)
Since the Swedes won the gold in 2012, they never missed medal contention until they got shut out by the Swiss last year. The trouble is that they haven't won the tournament since 2012 either and lost all three bronze medal games they competed in. They've reloaded their team for 2020 with an outstanding defense crop including Victor Söderström, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Rasmus Sandin, and Tobias Björnfot. That is a gross group of players to have moving pucks up the ice and controlling possession of the game. Any of the three goaltenders on their roster could be very solid as well.
The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.
The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.
#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)
I'm just as surprised to see the Czechs have as high a score as they have, but with a number of good CHL players on the way, and one of the highest NHLeS' in the tournament in Jan Jeník leading the way, the Czechs could have a very impressive tournament after making it through the quarterfinals just once since 2005. Lukas Dostal was wonderful last season and should get his job back this year, but Nick Malik and Jan Bednar are two 2020 eligibles who are quite highly regarded as prospects.
Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.
The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.
Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.
The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.
#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)
Hahahahahahaha this team is so loaded that you just have to laugh. The 2019 USA NTDP team headliners are almost all here they brought all their outsider friends too. Arthur Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, Bobby Brink, Zac Jones, Jordan Harris, etc. etc. etc. are a great group on their own, but adding Trevor Zegras, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Alex Turcotte, Beecher, and others from prior years is simply ridiculous. I know I was down on Spencer Knight last year, but this is why I'm outward about how goaltending is weird. He's been great with Boston College and internationally, so I expect nothing to change there. This is a dangerous team with at least three scary lines that could easily take this tournament, and the defense is a well rounded group of offensive talent and physical ability. Even the role players like Parker Ford, Curtis Hall and Jack Drury have been impressive players when I've seen them.
I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.
I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.
#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)
Once again, the Canadian team is out front by quite a margin. The CHL is the best junior league program in the world, but I'm one of those people that firmly believes that European programs and players are continously catching up and underrated. That being said, Canada should still be the top team in this tournament. Their perennial weaknesses often are in net, and with their discipline on international ice. Last year's talent was somewhat light in premier offensive talent, but this year is quite the opposite. Canada's 2020 crop is outstanding and they've chosen to showcase Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Jamie Drysdale, and Dawson Mercer on this year's team. Byfield is a very large, very good skating creative offensive threat, Lafrenière is an absolute hound on the ice with remarkable skill and overall offensive ability, Drysdale is already a top two-way OHL defender, and Mercer is one of the more well-rounded finishers in the 2020 draft outside of the aforementioned Canadians.
The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.
I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.
The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.
I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.
Closing Thoughts
I really want to reiterate that this year really feels like an especially deep and talented pool of players that we'll get the privilege of watching in Czechia. There are legitimately 6 teams I could see having a good run at winning a medal, and really anything can happen at this tournament. Multiple teams have top level goaltending, multiple teams have top level offensive weapons, multiple teams are absolutely loaded on defense, and I honestly have a hard time actually being definitive about who is likely to finish where.
That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:
Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia
This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.
In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.
P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.
Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.
- Will
That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:
Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia
This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.
In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.
P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.
Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.
- Will
Ah yes, it's that time again. NHL Draft Rankings... Every year, I say I dislike rankings, yet every year, here I am. This year I have said that there will be no rankings until after the World Junior Championships in January, but considering just how much data I have access to, and how many players and games I've tracked, I feel relatively comfortable publicizing my preliminary Top 5 tiers before publishing a more complete version next year. On the whole, the preseason hype of this crop seems to be a bit of a mixed bag in my opinion. A number of talents are emerging worldwide, however, and I do believe this will still be a strong group of players with solid depth in the late 1st through 3rd rounds, but from my vantage point, the talent dropoff after the first two tiers could be relatively steep when all is said and done. At the same time, the weekly 20+ NHLeS report I release on Twitter is still much longer than last year's so I may be biased against myself, which is a little unsettling.
If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.
If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.
The data I am including includes NHLeS and INV%, values as of November 24, 2019, with P1/60 and Cat% data accurate to November 19, 2019 and is derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Give him a follow, guy could be going places. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:
"Will, please stop yammering and show me the rankings."
- All of you
Alright without further delay, here are my 5 tiers of 2020 NHL Draft prospects.
If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.
If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.
The data I am including includes NHLeS and INV%, values as of November 24, 2019, with P1/60 and Cat% data accurate to November 19, 2019 and is derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Give him a follow, guy could be going places. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:
- NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
- INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
- P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
- OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for at even strength relative to their team.
- DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against at even strength relative to their team.
- TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.
"Will, please stop yammering and show me the rankings."
- All of you
Alright without further delay, here are my 5 tiers of 2020 NHL Draft prospects.
Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield
- I've said for a while that I personally lean 60/40 in favor of Lafrenière, but it is not a difficult conversation to bet on Quinton Byfield's upside long term.
- Lafrenière is a truly gifted hockey player who just seems to get it. Tremendously smart all around, great skill, great scoring instincts and pushes play at both ends extremely well. His skating is awkward, but not slow, and he can control the flow of the game at his pace. At the NHL, it remains to be seen how that translates, but his overall talent and ability to find the scoresheet is unequivocally remarkable.
- On the other hand, Quinton Byfield is a player who could turn into an Evgeni Malkin-type big centre with tremendous skating ability and skill. He's a lethal scorer and a bit more of an offensively-focused game, but to me, he has tremendous upside. Considering his 11 month age advantage over Lafrenière, it is a perfectly legitimate discussion to have if you're picking 1st overall, and neither of these players should be available at 3rd overall.
- I mean it. I almost pulled the "I'm going to rank both of these guys at #1 lol" trick, but I pulled myself together and went with my gut. My gut is weak, but my gut was final. I take Lafrenière and his wonderful overall no-BS approach to the game, but a potentially not-fun centre that could QB a line for a decade or more is pretty enticing.
Tier 2 - The Very Good Ones
- I'm not buying into those who are down on Lucas Raymond. I'm just not. He's being deployed strangely in Sweden, but what I've seen is impressive. My tracked data has been highly favourable towards him (71% SAT% ain't bad, for example), but he does show visible signs of potential discomfort with full time SHL play. He's an exceptionally skilled player under pressure, creative in transition and in the offensive zone, and can be a very dangerous offensive quarterback. His upside is tremendous, but he has been a hard player to get a read on early.
- Yes, Marco Rossi is a Top-5 player to me. His data lines up with Lafrenière in a few ways, his tracked data is outstanding, and he consistently drives play unbelievably well. He's a player who when I've tracked him, nearly every shift he's doing things that push play his way at both ends. I tracked a game where his team clawed back for a 5-4 win where he had 5 assists, and could have easily scored at least two more points had things been slightly different. He's skilled, agile, plays hard, has swagger, and if he can rein in the legitimately troublesome moments he's had this year, he could be a tremendous player down the line.
- Yes, Tim Stützle is also a Top-5 player to me. His hands are remarkable, his perimeter play with his ability to cut into dangerous areas and carve opponents is a ton of fun to watch. He's no slouch in his own end, but he's going to make his money by scoring points. His shot is electric, and his passing against men is often dangerous. I'm a huge fan, especially with how much he's improved over the last calendar season.
- Anton Lundell might not have a massive ceiling, but he could be a fantastic two-way centre who may not get fans out of their seats often, but he could be a person hockey nerds and coaches alike love. He pushes possession extremely well and should be a valuable NHLer for years, if not on boxes of cereal across the league.
- Drysdale is the best available defender in this draft, hands down and to me it isn't close. He does things Bowen Byram didn't that I think makes him a more projectable two-way player, but he's every bit as capable of being as dangerous as Byram offensively. There's a refinement there and a calculated aggressiveness that I enjoy watching.
- Ok, Holtz and Perfetti are lower than most. I'll say this: I really like Alexander Holtz's combination of skating and scoring ability. He's got a legitimately excellent release and scoring ability and is underrated with how engaged he is when he doesn't have the puck. Trouble is, beyond that I feel there is work to be done. He's unreliable in his own zone, and his passing can be unreliable if not making the conservative play. There is a great package of fundamental skill there, but you will need to know what to expect out of him if you're drafting him. With Perfetti, I see him listed as a centre, but often used as a winger, and I feel that's the best position for him, at least right now. His hands and creativity are among the best in the draft, and betting on that could convince me to put him right at the top of this tier, but I've found his defensive engagement to be poor, and his skating speed leads me to believe that he cheats high in the defensive zone to jump into rushes before they really get moving. It can work, but similar to Holtz, he might be a case of "you can't score points if you aren't at least competent defensively". Offensively, however, Perfetti is an unbelievable passer with great hands and a very good release on him, and could be an A-level power play quarterback, but my outlook on him is skeptical at the moment.
- I usually don't put goalies in the 1st round. I'm pretty sure Askarov belongs here. After the players ranked prior are drafted, I'm willing to take the bet on him. I don't know what else to say. The guy is good and true #1 goaltending is invaluable.
- When Dylan Holloway is on, he can completely take over a shift. When he isn't, he can totally disappear, but he's also one of the youngest players in the NCAA and is coming from the AJHL. I love his energy and offensive skill, and I have all the time in the world to discuss taking him anywhere in this range. Considering his youth in the NCAA playing bottom six minutes with very little power play time in my experience, he could be flying under the radar.
- Rounding out the only tier where I'll write on everyone, I'm a believer in Noel Gunler. I've learned to try to avoid betting a player will capture their game at it's worst, and err on the side of the player at their best. Gunler is dangerous in transition and a great fast break playmaker. He has scoring ability sure, but so far in the games I've tracked of his, 28% of his pass attempts are directed at or through dangerous areas. His 69% SAT% is nice, and while there are issues with engagement defensively and with putting enough behind his passes to get to their target, at his best, Gunler certainly belongs here. If he's the guy that drops to the 2nd round, I run to the microphone and give him a go, rumoured attitude issues and all.
Tier 3 - Could Be Great, or Nothing.
- Now we're getting spicy. Rodion Amirov leads this group, and I've been bouncing he and Jan Mysak between tiers 2 and 3 for a while. I'm a bigger believer in Amirov, but both are great scoring wingers. Mysak is younger, but I think gets undervalued due to his team. Litvinov is not a great modern team, often valuing dumping and chasing pucks and appear to be a team plagued by innate panic. Mysak falls into those habits, but the talent is blatantly there for him to be something much more. He's an effective member of the team, but I think he could be a very useful offensive piece. He's just hard to get a read on when he gets so few good looks. Amirov on the other hand has not looked out of place in the KHL to my eye, and has performed very well at the VHL level, let alone the MHL level. He doesn't show the habits of carelessness and individual focus I often see with young Russian players, and I think there's a great talent waiting to come out over time. He's in a very good program in Ufa with a number of high level young players, and I feel he's only going to get better.
- Kasper Simontaival is having a slow season on paper, but my data tracked on him is outstanding. He pushes possession, gets dangerous looks constantly, skates well, and for an offensive winger, he could potentially be a steal. He should be scoring a lot more than he is, and I think those who overlook him will be sorely mistaken down the line.
- I have to feel for Hendrix Lapierre. I'm usually not afraid of drafting injured players, but three concussions in under a year, an injury that is often easier to get the more you have, is legitimately concerning. Incredibly Hlinka aside, I've felt he played fine in Chicoutimi with a lot of room to grow. In reality, I'd have a hard time taking the chance in the 1st round, but he's ranked here because dang nabbit, he's talented enough.
- Roni Hirvonen, William Wallinder, and Lukas Reichel are three players I will run through a wall for. Wallinder has the size, skating ability and stick skill to potentially be the best defender not named Drysdale in the draft. Absolutely love his raw tools. Hirvonen is a high octane offensive player who has impressed me with his refined game every time I've seen him, even if his team isn't great. On Reichel, people are sleeping on him, but his skating, quick decision making, and somewhat mediocre linemates (Maxim Lapierre, predominantly) lead me to be really high on him. He's a shooting machine from dangerous areas and can be highly valuable in transition. Definitely one to pay attention to as the season goes on.
- I want to love Dawson Mercer. I see the talent, but the consistency and data just isn't there.
- Jérémie Poirier is going to go as far as his brain takes him. In terms of raw talent, he's the #2 defender available, but his team works poorly as a unit and he's often a major part of that. Holding onto pucks too long, not engaging defensively, skating into 1 on 3s, and ignoring clear looks to linemates makes everything but offensive production look less than ideal on paper. If he can calm his game down a tad and play with a bit more dynamic ability, he could be a great pickup.
Tier 4 - The Real Question Marks
- I already know what you're thinking, and please keep in mind that these are tiers. Justin Barron and Jean-Luc Foudy have been off to poor starts, but they're improving. I'm a big fan of the raw tools in both, especially Foudy, but I will be paying close attention to them over the year. I could be convinced to take them at the top end of the tier, but there are names in here that I am very excited about... like...
- Okay, I'm a numbers guy, and Marat Khusnutdinov doesn't have great production at first glance, but I've seen a lot of this guy play. Similar to Marco Rossi, every time Khusnutdinov steps on the ice so far when I've seen him, he's awesome. He's setting linemates up for scoring chances that are whiffed on, he's playing exceptional two-way hockey, he sets up behind the net to make a play beautifully. He's scoring primary points on 75% of goals scored while he's on the ice. He's getting points on 92%. He's a player I know you could grab in the 2nd, but I'm a big, big believer in him, especially considering his age. He's not getting much PP time, and his team is absolutely stacked and he's flying under the radar. He pushes pace, gets fantastic results, and if he can get stronger with better linemates and finishing ability on his own, he could be a steal.
- I just really like Jake Neighbours' upside. Skill, skating, agility, I'm a fan.
- Trust me, everyone. I see your Antonio Stranges gifs, and I've tracked a game of his that was comically lopsided in his favor, but there's something about his game and his data that just... doesn't feel right. He's an effective offensive player, but he's nearly invisible defensively at times, and his skating when not 10-2'ing around is... fine? Maybe I need to just watch more, but I have a hard time bumping him into my 1st round.
- The group of Gushchin, Novak, Francis, Pashin, Foerster, Jarvis, Wiesblatt, Farrell and Tullio all fall into the "potentially good complimentary player" category. I love Pashin's talent most of all of them, but guys like Novak, Gushchin, Francis and Foerster can be dangerous any time they step on the ice. I particularly like how Ryan Francis gets around the ice, and if he can get stronger on his feet and keep low to the ice, he could be a real sneaky offensive threat down the line.
- Joni Jurmo and Samuel Knazko have been real joys for me to watch in the Finnish junior league. Jurmo stuck out while tracking Juuso Mäenpää a while back, and he's been impressive. Aggressive in the neutral zone, and a wonderful skater for his size with underrated offensive ability on a stacked team. Knazko is much the same, but from my viewing, appears to favor defending the middle of the ice a bit more and using his edgework to create space from forecheckers. I'll need to watch more, but I really like what I see.
- Similar to Jurmo/Knazko, I've enjoyed watching William Villeneuve a lot more than some other Sea Dogs players this year. Villeneuve is one of those "safer" defenders who plays smart and creates offense well. He's still up at 24%INV with good even strength results even if he's a bit "safer". He's a player who seems to understand what the situation is while he's playing, rarely making poor decisions and getting around the ice smoothly and effectively. I'm unsure of potential, but he's a highly respectable player to my eye and data.
- Lots of people are hyping Michael Benning's production, especially compared to Cale Makar, which certainly stands out to me, but I highly, highly doubt Michael Benning is Cale Makar. There was a ruthless attacking mentality to Cale Makar's game, where Benning is much more of a pace controlling puck mover, but an effective one at that. Similar to Villeneuve, I could see Benning have good puck moving ability and PP upside, but his size and lack of strength can cause issues defensively that might be hidden by playing in the AJHL. He certainly earns himself his share of controlled offensive entries, and does well to cut play off in the neutral zone, but unless his velocity and edgework comes a step while at college, I think his upside could be somewhat limited. I'm certainly not comfortable dropping him beneath this tier though, so please don't get too upset if you're a fan of his.
- Of the 30 players where I've tracked an estimated neutral zone transition velocity, Roby Järventie appears to be the fastest by a wide margin. 45.4 km/h is well ahead of 2nd place, Swedish defender Helge Grans at 40.8 km/h.
Tier 5 - "I Dunno, Maybe?"
- This tier is smaller, and there's a breed of player in here that I'm usually against drafting particularly high. Daemon Hunt, Alexander Nikishin, Braden Schneider and Ryan O'Rourke are in here. Big, physical defensemen who can get around the ice okay. I do like Schneider, but he's nearly a 2019 eligible. I haven't liked what I've seen of Ryan O'Rourke and I think his team masks his issues moving pucks and skating around the ice, but he has gotten results thus far. Nikishin has some nice hands for a defender, but he's hard to get a read on playing solid KHL minutes but seems a bit overwhelmed with the pace of the game most times I've seen him.
- Kasper Puutio is a guy I've liked. His team in Swift Current is... not great. He has some moments where I find him impressive, somewhat reminding me of Ville Heinola from 2019. He's a good two-way player who can cut play off in the neutral zone well, but I'm not sure of his real upside.
- Ville Ottavainen is a big defender who I love to watch skate around the ice. He might end up higher in my rankings this year due to his two-way numbers and his skating ability, but I'll need to see more.
- Dmitri Ovchinnikov is my mini-Marat. A guy who I love to watch play who might need better linemates to really show what he can do. He's a great skater who can weave through the neutral zone and get to dangerous areas, while also being a good perimeter player willing to set plays up off the boards and making intelligent defensive reads from time to time. I really like what I see from him and over time he could become a nice offensive leaning two-way energy winger.
- I've really liked Colby Ambrosio with Tri-City. He's an effective piece of a team that isn't where it was last year. Good young skater with good scoring instincts and a 30%+INV in the USHL, which is usually a pretty good benchmark.
Honourable Mentions
- Jake Sanderson and Luke Tuch are two guys who just missed the cut. I like Sanderson's skating, but he's a long term project with nothing much to show for this year. Tuch, I'm just not sure. On that note, I've really enjoyed watching Eamon Powell play.
- I need to see more of Jack Thompson and Théo Rochette.
- Will Cuylle should probably be in here, but I haven't noticed him on the ice when I've caught Windsor games and his metrics are poor.
- Nick Malik is a not-small goalie playing against men and doing well. That checks a few boxes.
- Lukas Svejkovsky is a fun player to watch who gets great results. I've got an eye on him a bit.
- Russian names like Pavel Tyutnev, Maxim Beryozkin, Maxim Nevolin and overagers Takhir Mingachyov, Danil Alalykin have all stood out to me for various reasons, especially Tyutnev playing bottom-6 minutes with Loko Yaroslavl.
- Victor Mancini appears to be getting decent minutes, and all of his points are primary points at even strength and he's up near a 100% TotCat% on a stacked team. Frölunda's U20 team scores 5.6 even strength goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. That is really something and worth keeping an eye on.
- I probably dislike your favourite players.
Closing Thoughts
So that's that. The first few tiers that are increasingly likely to change the further down you go. Lots of names I've laid eyes on but haven't tracked, lots of names I have data on but haven't laid eyes on, and there's still lots of hockey left to play. I'm only really confident in my Top-40 or so with room for more players in that group over time. This is an imperfect science, but all we're trying to do is cut through biases and isolate good players who carry value that is beyond that typically available at any team's given pick. I certainly over time have evolved my tastes to prefer a certain brand of play, and hopefully that's on display in these rankings and with the data I track that will be publicly released around draft time.
If you've made it this far, thank you all so much for your support through the last 15 months as we've seen this platform grow significantly. This work is a joy to put together. These kids are chasing their dreams, and all we can do is sit and watch, but boy is it ever fun to watch. In my dreams, I'm drafting some of these guys into my own program, but until then, I have you, the reader, so thank you.
The next rankings are likely out in January or Februrary, depending on how confident I'm feeling on a given week.
If you've made it this far, thank you all so much for your support through the last 15 months as we've seen this platform grow significantly. This work is a joy to put together. These kids are chasing their dreams, and all we can do is sit and watch, but boy is it ever fun to watch. In my dreams, I'm drafting some of these guys into my own program, but until then, I have you, the reader, so thank you.
The next rankings are likely out in January or Februrary, depending on how confident I'm feeling on a given week.
Welcome to the final Scouching Rankings for the 2019 NHL Draft. If you haven't viewed the accompanying video profiling the higher end of the rankings, be sure to click here and check it out!
As always, thank you all for the support through the year. I think the season was a huge building block for the project and I can't wait to see where we're at in 2020 and beyond. Without you, the reader, none of this would be possible.
This ranking outlines some of the important metrics I track over the year in the Prospect Tracker, so if you need a refresher on what these numbers mean, look no further:
A Brief Note: There are no goalies in this ranking, mostly because they seem to be evaluated on a different plane than skaters, but in short, based on what I've seen with my eyes, Spencer Knight, Pyotr Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Konovalov, Isaiah Saville, Taylor Gauthier, Trent Miner, Erik Portillo and Hunter Jones are a "Top-10" set of goaltenders that I'd have my eye on for varying reasons. Amir Miftakhov is a curious one as well, just off of how many pucks he faced in a pro men's league and his remarkable athleticism.
As always, thank you all for the support through the year. I think the season was a huge building block for the project and I can't wait to see where we're at in 2020 and beyond. Without you, the reader, none of this would be possible.
This ranking outlines some of the important metrics I track over the year in the Prospect Tracker, so if you need a refresher on what these numbers mean, look no further:
- DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
- NHLeS - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of >20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
- Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
- Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.
A Brief Note: There are no goalies in this ranking, mostly because they seem to be evaluated on a different plane than skaters, but in short, based on what I've seen with my eyes, Spencer Knight, Pyotr Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Konovalov, Isaiah Saville, Taylor Gauthier, Trent Miner, Erik Portillo and Hunter Jones are a "Top-10" set of goaltenders that I'd have my eye on for varying reasons. Amir Miftakhov is a curious one as well, just off of how many pucks he faced in a pro men's league and his remarkable athleticism.
Tier I - Hughes v. Kakko
- Let's make this clear up front. Jack Hughes is the #1 prospect in this draft. At the same time, this does not mean there isn't a discussion to be had. Both players bring different traits to the game, but the traits Hughes brings are rarer, and likely more beneficial to pushing play positively when it matters most.
- Hughes is a phenomenal skater who is a puck rushing monster with exceptional vision in the offensive zone.
- Kakko brings an advantage in terms of his play along the boards, resiliency with the puck, and his track record of producing at a high level in a very difficult league, and he will be a very nice consolation prize at #2 for the Rangers.
- I believe both players could be viewed similarly in a few years in terms of on-ice impact, but the tools Hughes brings to the table is something every team could always use more of, but comes at a cost most teams are unwilling to pay.
- Hughes with Taylor Hall for the next season at the least gives me anxiety.
Tier II
- This is a group that separated themselves more and more over the year to me. Byram and Turcotte appear to be isolating themselves at 3/4 in the public sphere, but you could make the case that any of these players have the talent to go in any order at these picks.
- Kirby Dach is bar none my favourite player in this draft to watch play not named Kakko or Hughes. His combination of creativity, skill, power, and the ease with which he plays the game is just wonderful to watch, and his ceiling could lead him to be on a similar level to Hughes and Kakko, but he really needs to capture his play at it's best more often. Going over 20% of the season with a 0.2 points per game scoring rate isn't going to take you far, but I'm more than optimistic.
- I was a Podkolzin doubter, but I see the appeal after digging in deeper. Remarkable ferocity to his game, forces his opposition to make a play, and moves pucks up the ice remarkably, but I'm skeptical of his upside.
- Arthur Kaliyev here might surprise folks, but the more I watch, the more I actually really like. He strikes me as a Patrik Laine-esque player, just with a more varied offensive skillset, minus the A+++ shot. Kaliyev isn't the sexiest player in transition, but around the net, he can be gross. His hands are exceptional. His vision is underrated. His swagger factor is through the roof. The only thing that could hold him back is what's between his ears. He'll probably slip quite far due to perceived motivational issues and his position, but I think he can hang with this group.
- The Cole Caufield hype train is in full force. He continued to improve all year and could be a remarkable goal scorer in the NHL. I think he brings more to the game than an Alex DeBrincat, especially when it comes to his mobility and puck skill, but there are legitimate questions surrounding his play in his own end, but when push comes to shove, he does the hardest thing in hockey really, really well.
Tier III
- These are guys I see as interesting prospects that could be useful players one day, but may have lower ceilings, or riskier high ceilings.
- It's no secret that I'm a huge Bobby Brink fan. His team's scoring dropped by 50% without him in the lineup. A year ago, he was nowhere to be found. Yes, his skating is poor, but his approach to the game, his two-way metrics, and his ability to dance with the puck in tight areas indicate that if his skating can come a few strides, he could be a massive, massive steal.
- Ryan Suzuki is very much a perimeter player, but Joe Veleno has some very similar looking metrics last year, and he's turned out okay. Suzuki has the talent to be an aggressive attacking offensive player, and all the creativity you could want, but it seems he's reluctant to jump into dangerous areas. With some strength on his frame, he could be special, even if he strays more to the outside of the ice quarterbacking an offense.
- Connor McMichael has all the speed he could ever want, but doesn't use it a ton and seems a bit inefficient in generating that speed. Do I care? Not really. The guy might need to turn it up a notch in his own end, but getting to dangerous areas and scoring no-BS points is his game, and you can never have enough of that on your team.
- Nicholas Robertson is small, but very young for the draft, and I've come away impressed every time. He has remarkable puck skill, vision and skating ability, but is another perimeter player who played a lot more wing than centre, and his deeper metrics were "fine". My eyes tell me there's a number of higher gears for him to hit, and he was highly consistent all year, so I'm hopeful for Robertson moving forward.
- I honestly have no idea where Moritz Seider's career is heading, but I like his combination of skills. I think there are players with more tangible upside, but if I had multiple first rounders this year, I could easily take a swing and see what happens.
- Bjornfot, Broberg and Soderstrom. Three very different players, three different levels of upside. I think Broberg could end up being the best of the three based on his mobility, power and puck protection ability, but there's a ways to go with him. Decisionmaking and puck movement are issues that will need fixing. Bjornfot has been a favourite of mine all year and he could have great offensive potential. Soderstrom is probably the likeliest of all to work out as a responsible two-way minutes eater, but I don't see a huge ceiling there.
Tier IV
- Now we're in the real nitty gritty. This is a massive group that I think has a lot of really, really interesting talent available.
- Artemi Knyazev is an exceptional skater with great offensive ability and he improved in the back half of the season, nearly doubling his NHLeS in the process.
- I really like Matthew Robertson's tools, but his numbers don't jump out at you. I think there's a really nice defender there, but I'm not sure what the ceiling is there.
- Jamieson Rees and Albin Grewe are just so much fun to watch. They play hard, they play with skill, they come at you at all times and I've come to really love that style of play, so long as the play doesn't get carried away, can actually score points, and don't put themselves in bad positions when things don't go their way.
- My thoughts on Ethan Keppen, Zac Jones and Dom Fensore are well documented and could be steals, Fensore especially. You can't hit what you can't catch, and Fensore is probably the 2nd best skater on the USA U-18 team behind Jack Hughes to my eyes.
- I was fully expecting Yegor Serdyuk to be underwhelming based on what I had heard through the grapevine, but after a few viewings, I think he's tremendously undervalued. His skating is solid, he can protect a puck well, his skill is solid, and I saw him attempt dangerous plays time after time that could have been great opportunities for his teammates.
- I've always really liked John Beecher. Big centre who can skate and rough it up along the boards to free up pucks and make a play. Not sure there's tremendous offensive upside there, but with some good linemates, he could be a very interesting player.
- Leevi Aaltonen is one of my favourites in this range to watch. Tremendous skater who I found begging to play a more aggressive game. He's truly gifted with his feet, and is more than willing to shoot or pass to put points up, but his shots come from a ways out more often than you'd like. The tools are there, the metrics are there, and if he gets a bit more confidence, look out.
- If Nikita Alexandrov were a day older, he'd be a 2018 eligible. As basically a D+1, his production wasn't great, but he's devastating around the net and plays hard with some solid skill. Might be a low ceiling, but he plays the game right and could chip in sooner than some others in this range.
- Lassi Thomson always struck me as "Evan Bouchard but not as good", and to have Evan Bouchard's profile and be successful, you almost need to be as good as Evan Bouchard is. Thomson's skating isn't fantastic, but he can really crank it from the point, and he does it often. His team wasn't great, but his two-way metrics look solid. He might be gone after round one, but if he starts slipping deeper into the 2nd, I could certainly take the chance.
- People are labeling Patrik Puistola as a potential steal, and I could see it. There are flashes of a real skilled scoring winger. He might be a complimentary player in the NHL, but I could easily see him in any NHL jersey contributing offensively if he captures his best traits more often.
Tier V
- These are the real interesting guys who I swing on in the middle rounds.
- Jayden Struble is an offensive defender I think could be ranked even higher. I'm a big fan of his skating and skill, but I'm just skeptical of prep players based on my viewings. It's just so hard to gauge their actual talent when the quality of their games is simply a few steps below most other major junior leagues. Almost the same situation as John Farinacci from my viewings. Great skaters, great tools, tons of production, but what happens at the next level?
- Albert Johansson has great offensive tools, but his defensive play and decision making needs work. Tailed off quite a bit down the back half of the year as well.
- Marshall Warren is almost certainly gone by the 3rd round, but I really like his power and skating on his feet. Not sure of what his upside is, but he had some really nice flashes in my time watching that team.
- Lucas Feuk stands out in a number of ways on paper, similar to Linus Karlsson last year, but I'll admit I haven't seen a tremendous amount of him.
- Kim Nousiainen breaks the 25%INV threshold for defenders that I value quite a bit, and I think that is worth swinging on singlehandedly. I liked his U18, but his metrics are what stick out to me.
- Mattias Norlinder has really caught on in recent months and I certainly think I had nothing to do with it, but I've been a fan of his for a while this year, especially once he hit the Allsvenskan. Great skater with great hands and is a lot of fun to watch.
The "Who Knows" Watchlist
- I've been a fan of Joe Garreffa for a few years now and he continues to produce. More of an offensive waterbug who may have more PP upside than anything, he brings great energy, great pace, and great offensive ability, and late in the draft he could easily be an overage swing someone takes.
- Part of me still believes in Blake Murray's goal scoring. A player I wanted to dig into more and expected more from, he should still be picked as a "we'll see" player. I'm still not sure.
- Pontus Englund is an analytical darling from the Swedish U20 league, and he's off to Liiga powerhouse KalPa next year. The guy scored a ton on a bad team, and can absolutely smash pucks from the blueline.
- Really liked Simon Gnyp's offensive play at the U18s, but he's a long term project.
- Nathan Staios would be a pick solely on his skating and offensive play. He needs work in his own end, and taking his overall game to another level, but his motor and fluidity are excellent.
- Rtishchev, Lisin, Fyodorov, Ogirchuk and Komissarov are all great fun overagers I enjoyed watching out of Russia this year, and Chistyakov could be the Alex Romanov of 2019. Great skater who can pass pucks effectively.
- Mike Koster is here solely due to his metrics. They're insane. He's way down my board because I've never been impressed with him unless he's at the blueline and making a play from there. His mobility isn't great and Rhett Pitlick always impressed me more.
- Cooper Moore is a defender with a 35% involvement at prep school, not the highest level of hockey that I find hard to gauge, but those numbers are interesting and he could be one to keep an eye on.
Final Thoughts
This year's draft to me is characterized by a ton of different players from a variety of different backgrounds. I'm not quite sure of how much Grade-A Talent will be coming out of this draft, but the USA National Program was one of the greatest teams I've ever seen play at this level, and I'm fascinated at where these guys may end up. Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are extremely high level talents that should contribute immediately, but beyond that, how you develop these players will be vital. I do strongly believe that once you pass the 2nd round, you could come away with a lot of very interesting prospects at every pick. There are enigmas everywhere, and there could be some great players to come out of places in this draft that you wouldn't expect.
With this article, the pre-draft coverage from Scouching is complete. There will be a post-draft video coming, and be sure to tune in to Scouching's inaugural mock draft, Wednesday, June 19th at 9:30EST, and definitely check out Scouch's Draftathon Friday, June 21st at 7:30PM, as well as Saturday, June 22nd at 10:30AM, where we'll be tracking all 7 rounds live. If you can, donations collected during the streams will go to the YouCanPlay Project, so be sure to come see what we're up to!
Thank you all, if you're a Twitter follower, YouTube subscriber, or a Patreon supporter, it all means the world to me. We'll be back in 2019-20 bigger and better than ever for what looks to be the best draft I've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.
With this article, the pre-draft coverage from Scouching is complete. There will be a post-draft video coming, and be sure to tune in to Scouching's inaugural mock draft, Wednesday, June 19th at 9:30EST, and definitely check out Scouch's Draftathon Friday, June 21st at 7:30PM, as well as Saturday, June 22nd at 10:30AM, where we'll be tracking all 7 rounds live. If you can, donations collected during the streams will go to the YouCanPlay Project, so be sure to come see what we're up to!
Thank you all, if you're a Twitter follower, YouTube subscriber, or a Patreon supporter, it all means the world to me. We'll be back in 2019-20 bigger and better than ever for what looks to be the best draft I've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.