The Scouching Blog

Scouching's 2022 April Draft Rankings

4/8/2022

Welcome back to another season of Scouching Reports! To celebrate the launch of this season of videos, I've released a set of rankings for April. This season's draft class has been a tough one. I have struggled a bit getting really excited about a large group of players in the class, but there are many interesting projects with strong traits in some areas of the game that I think could develop into solid play driving NHL athletes. It may not be the best year to be a lottery team, but I do think it's a good year to have a lot of picks and get creative. Of course, if you have any questions about players I haven't written a blurb on, feel free to ask on any Scouching Live, every Thursday at 8pm EST on YouTube!

Of course, there is the question of how to manage Russian/Belarusian players, and let me be unequivocal that what is going on in Ukraine is a tragic catastrophe that has changed the world perpetuated by the Russian government. Scouching has made a donation to the Canadian Red Cross relief fund for Ukrainians affected by the war. I also believe that there is tremendous uncertainty with where Russia is going to be as a nation come draft time. On one hand, they could make it illegal for citizens to leave the country, thereby making prospects arguably worthless in the eyes of NHL teams, but on the other, the coming economic strife in Russia could create an environment for North American clubs to help young athletes and their families find a better life and extend an olive branch to kids who may just want to follow their dreams as best they can. As such, I'm evaluating high end Russians as if nothing were any different. They're hockey players first and foremost, and we'll have to see what the effects of these global changes will be to see the consequences. Outside of the top level Russian players I firmly believe in this year however, there are many who are part of a massive group of players down the board that I just can't see using a pick on, considering everything going on either. There are just far fewer question marks with those players, so if I'm not comfortable drafting them, picking up the phone, and trying to get them over to North America immediately, it's way tougher for me to get behind them in my view.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Tier 1 - Athos, Porthos and Aramis

This tier has largely stayed the same, but Matthew Savoie drops to Tier 2. I have questions about his ability to drive play at 5v5, not simply due to his lack of production there. He's highly skilled and can play at a high pace, but he lacks an escape gear that can get him valuable space. He's underrated when it comes to making plays under pressure and resisting larger players, but the margins are thin at the top, and I have concerns about what kind of adjustment is coming for Savoie at higher levels.
Wright is still #1 for me, but it isn't The Shane Wright draft. He's certainly one of the smarter players in this draft per puck touch, anticipating pressure and the flow of play extremely well with strong finishing instincts, but there are others that I feel with development could be right there with him when it comes to all-around impact.
Brad Lambert remains in this range, and I've been on this train all season. Part of me worries I'm making excuses for him, but I cannot shake the feeling, much like I couldn't last year, that the players around him are not maximizing what he could provide on the ice. He's one of the fastest and most skilled players in this draft, with remarkable close quarters skill to get through defenders, and uses his speed to win retrievals often. He needs fast, effective finishing talent to offset his high-pace profile, but with both JYP and Pelicans, I've seen anything but that. Pelicans is a slow, plodding team with Lambert on the ice that rarely utilizes him in open space up the middle. With JYP, he was a prime transition target, but once he'd get in the offensive zone, he'd often find himself alone or working with unlikely pass reception targets. He doesn't do himself a ton of favours as an individually talented player right now in terms of production, but I've watched this player a ton over the last two seasons, was ready to question him coming into this season, but strongly believe there's a tremendous amount of value to be unlocked.
Logan Cooley has flashes and games where he is one of the most electrifying offensive players in the draft. Fast, skilled, creative on the rush, all kinds of things you love to see. Other games and periods of time, he's been far less effective, especially on backchecks and chipping in deep in the defensive zone, but his tracked data in offensive transitions and playmaking is simply outstanding. He's the most efficient player in my entire dataset offensively, maintaining control on 88% of his transitions, and showed no signs of perimeter shooting in high volumes. One of the kings of fun hockey in this draft, there's a pretty open and shut case for a dynamic offensive centre here after a year or two of college experience.

Tier 2 - Four Other Really Good Players

One of my partners in crime Sam McGilligan urged me to watch more Jiricek recently before his injury and I'm glad I did. There's such a great combination of creativity, skill, and defensive potential that just feels so hard to find. He can turn play around so quickly, push for offense from time to time, and use his stick and body to suck up defensive space well often. I think his development could be really impressive over time and I'm excited to see where he could end up in an NHL lineup. I really hope we get to see a bit more of him before the draft.
Juraj Slafkovsky had a pretty impressive Olympics I'd say, and his play has steadily improved in the Liiga this season to my eye. He seemed a little uncomfortable at high pace using his hands to protect the puck, but he's made up for it with his body positioning and ability to pull pucks wide away from pursuers, and drive along the boards to look for different plays in the offensive zone. He's excellent at getting off the boards into the middle of the ice, shows flashes of strong playmaking, and growing fully into his body and improving his skill level could make him a remarkably tough possession player to get on top of. I have some concerns just how much offense he'll put out in the NHL, but at worst he can be an excellent foil for faster, more skilled offensive linemates while chipping in himself.
"Say The Line, Bart", as the entire classroom turns to look my direction. With a solemn head droop, I utter " g l e b ", and everyone loses their minds. I'm not one for hot takes for the sake of hot takes, and I strongly, strongly believe in what Gleb Trikozov could become with development. He's an August birthday, his scoring rate improved over the year, he has one of the best shot releases in the draft, and I felt that his ability to see the ice, hit targets across bluelines and chip in defensively improved as well. All of this while not playing the kind of minutes we often see high level MHL prospects playing. I would've thought he'd be in the VHL more than he was, but in the MHL he was basically a video game character. The most ridiculously involved offensive transition player I've tracked with absolutely absurd results, with excellent offensive metrics, even if there are defensive concerns, the pros heavily outweigh the cons. A ton of fun to watch, and a player I'd be on the phone with to bring to North America immediately to develop close to home. This player may not be drafted until round 3 at this rate, but I'd be pounding the table to take a chance on this player as early as the teens. Dan Milstein is his agent and he has been tremendously outspoken regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which may indicate possibilities of seeing Gleb find his way out of Russia.

Tier 3 - Please Don't Make Me Order Them.

I've cooled down a bit on Seamus Casey, but not a ton, and I still strongly believe that patience will be rewarded greatly. If he can get quicker and more agile, the skill and creativity he brings could make for a tremendous offensive defenseman. He's reliant on passes up the ice to move pucks, but adding a strong puck carrying game would round things out immensely. It may take time, but if Casey is a player taken in the late first or even the second round, I think that team could be rewarded greatly if they play their cards right.
Joakim Kemell has slowed down over the year, but I do think he's one of the better pure finisher you could get. He's gotten increasingly physical and intense off-puck in my viewings, and his nose for space in the offensive zone certainly helps him generate chances, but I don't see a very well-rounded game with Kemell, and on-puck scoring instincts that will require improvement if he's going to score at the NHL level.
Yeah, I've got Mesar over Nemec. I love them both, but I think the skating and intelligence with Mesar gives you a ton to work with at both centre and the wing. Nemec is a gifted puck carrier, but a highly passive defender with mobility concerns. I also question his skill level projecting to higher levels when carrying pucks, but he can be a somewhat difficult player to get on top of. Breaking pucks out with passes is still a work in progress as well, but there's a lot to like. If you've got Nemec higher, cool! I just think there's a smidge more projectable tools with Mesar in terms of really pushing results in the NHL.
The NTDP forwards are tough to gauge. I've heard remarkably glowing things about Frank Nazar, but haven't really seen it outside of finishing under pressure in the offensive zone. I've heard some Isaac Howard slander, but I've seen a high-pace, high-octane with some insane performances driving scoring and playmaking himself, often setting up the aforementioned Nazar. Cutter Gauthier has a wonderful shot from all over the offensive zone, and flashes of skill with the puck that can create space for himself and get fans out of their seats. He's an efficient puck mover, but rarely used in that role, and I'd like for him to get himself into better scoring position, but he has driven solid results all around. Some have him top 10. I certainly won't, but he's certainly part of this solid group in the teens if you're looking for scoring.
Liam Ohgren pops in here a bit ahead of the other Djurgarden players, largely because I love how his game could project to the NHL. He really gives me Vasili Podkolzin vibes in a way, with a high pace of play, good 200-foot instincts, relatively good transitional skill, and a scoring ability that's hard to ignore. The other players I think have flaws that put them a tier below Ohgren, even if their ceiling may be higher. Most NHL teams would like a guy like Ohgren in their lineup, the question will be how much he actually pushes play offensively that could make the pick really worth it.
These defensemen at the back here are all guys that have grown on my significantly over the year. I think the hype train on Mintyukov has gone a little off the rails, but he's got tons of skill and lateral agility to shake off players in transition and in the offensive zone, but his ability to monitor and maneuver around defensive ice is a bit of an issue, and some games I've come away barely noticing what Mintyukov is contributing outside of safe passing and the odd skill move at the offensive blueline.
Kevin Korchinski has gotten more confident with the puck, and while I question his defensive game off-puck, his offensive transition ability and defensive stick in transition is impressive. A strong playmaker off the blueline, Korchinski really reminds me of a player like Jake Gardiner, who may drive strong results through a lack of having to play defense at all, but has moments defensively where you want to see more. Do I mind that at all? Nope. I liked what Jake Gardiner brought to the game, and I think Korchinski is a strong offensive pickup in the same mold.
I came into the season not expecting to like Vladimir Grudinin as much as I do now, but he's extremely mobile with great even strength point production in relatively limited MHL time. He put up great data in my KHL and VHL viewings, especially defensively with remarkable mobility and explosiveness out of his pivots to close gaps quickly and pursure defenders relentlessly. If he stops moving his feet, he can have problems, but time and encouragement to be more creative and assertive could make him a huge threat with the puck. The flashes are bright, and like Gleb Trikozov, he is represented by Dan Milstein, so who knows what could be possible bringing him over to North America sooner rather than later.
Ah, there's Danila Yurov. I feel pretty confident that he sort of sits between the third and fourth tiers on my list. I'm pretty certain he'll slot into an NHL middle-six or third line as a strong offensive checking forward with quick thinking on the puck, especially if there's a play to be made. He gets to the net, generates chances well, but doesn't possess the speed, skill or pace that I think could put him higher than this spot on my list. He didn't play too many minutes in the KHL because he frankly wasn't really driving results good enough to give him more minutes, and in the MHL with softer defenses and plenty of ice time, more of his game came out, but his NHL upside remains questionable, even if the floor is relatively strong.

Tier 4 - Mid-Lineup Candidates

I've seen players like Lekkerimaki before. High level, high volume shooters that don't play particularly well with the puck unless it's preparing for shooting the puck. He's rarely involved in transitions, his shot metrics have been consistently very bad, low pass volumes, low pass completion, and 65% of his shot attempts coming from low danger areas. There's potential, but it may take time to unlock the goal scorer that Lekkerimaki could be in the NHL.
Some love Noah Ostlund, some have him as a 3rd rounder or worse. I can honestly see both sides. If you've got multiple 2nd round picks, Ostlund could be a great swing to see what happens with his awareness, skill level and agility, but I also have seen a player struggle to consistently dominate at 5v5 like his production may indicate. He's impressive when players are bearing down on him and he's forced to adapt, but he adapts by stopping and passing, rather than continuing his momentum up the ice, and there's a lack of diversity in his game. A good shooter, reliable passer, and at times creative offensive playmaker, he's still got work to do before driving big results in the NHL.
Sam Rinzel caught my eye when an NHL Scout asked what I thought after his first few USHL games with Waterloo. I like this guy. Really talented offensive defenseman with smooth, fluid skating and good skill to push play up the ice. His defensive mobility and shutdown ability is not particularly great for a big player, but he seems to be a player who could do whatever he wanted offensively, which was the case when watching him with Chaska High School in Minnesota. Time in college will be necessary, but he's got tons of projectable tools to be excited about and could be a really fascinating pickup if he's available later in the 1st round or into the 2nd.
I like Conor Geekie, just not as an extremely high upside player in the NHL. I think his floor is relatively projectable. He knocks down and gains control of pucks well, doesn't panic under pressure, and slips pucks through opponents well at times, but I think he's more of a good 3rd line forward on an NHL roster that may struggle to score consistently in the NHL. He does a lot of the tough things to do in the NHL well when play is more chaotic, but his open ice speed and skill is still an issue that may limit his projection.
Denton Mateychuk is fun, but I have no idea who plays like him with the talent profile he has in the NHL. He's constantly thinking offense, and when pucks are coming defensively, he's heavily reliant on blocking pass lanes pivoting quickly from backwards to forwards skating, but doesn't bring a tremendous amount of explosiveness to those moments. He pushes into the offensive zone often to make plays, but his ability to consistently cause turnovers defensively and drive pucks up the ice with control is questionable, and without elite skill and agility, I don't know what he is in the NHL. Development could be key here, I just am more skeptical of his game than others which puts him a bit further down my list.

Tier 5 - Just a Big Ol' Whack of Interesting Players

Here's where things go awry and I start to just shrug my shoulders and pray to the hockey gods.
Lian Bichsel has grown on me over the year, but he's a work in progress. Really physical, but fluid on his feet and gaining confidence with his skill. Nice long term bet for a useful defensive player, but I've also seen a player who looks more capable defensively than he is because of his willingness to play physical.
I just love Lane Hutson and hope he turns into something. I'm not sure he will, but I love his shiftiness, creativity and offensive output, which has improved over the course of the year. Just so, so excited to see him at the U18s again, and he could be had much later than he should be available.
I just want to send my best to Ivan Miroshnichenko in his cancer battle. It's something you'd never wish on anyone, let alone a teenager, and I'm hopeful he recovers and has a strong hockey career. I have no idea what's going to happen with him on draft day, and I did have concerns about his game, but that all goes out the window a bit, especially if he had been battling symptoms for months, because this wasn't the Ivan Miroshnichenko I remember from prior years.
Christian Kyrou is one of the more creative and offensive leaning defenders in this draft. His defensive game is not great. His skating is not great. The shot and skill though? Heck yes, sign me up. He's ranked to go significantly later than this range, but I'd be thrilled to take a swing on him if he does indeed slip past the first few rounds. He may struggle to develop to an NHL level, but talent in certain areas and the way he thinks the game is interesting and could breed good results.
Yeah, I'm still a Jiri Tichacek fan. I liked his time with Jiricek in the World Juniors, and he was one of the better shot attempt differential players on his team in Kladno. The little waterbug on defense who can really shoot a hockey puck continued to improve and I'm looking for another step next year, even if he isn't drafted again.
Names like Goyette, Del Bel Belluz, Beck, Ingram, Bystedt, Zhilkin and Snuggerud are all part of an up-and-down set of forwards with some traits in some areas that drive good results now, but may have issues in the NHL without experience and development. I like Beck's pace and pass vision. I like Del Bel Belluz's skill. I like Goyette's awareness and puck management. The picture just hasn't quite come together for these players in my mind that really would put them into the first round solidly.
Alexis Gendron had a strong second half and it was something I was hoping for all year. I've liked Gendron for a while, with his high pace, net-attacking mentality that was unlike many QMJHL players I've seen this year. He's on pace for around 30 goals this year, and I think there's room for more, especially if his team improves and he shores up his defensive intensity, which is definitely a bit of a work in progress. He's still one of the best I've tracked at generating dangerous chances without what I would consider a strong supporting cast.
I want Mats Lindgren to be a thing really badly. He's very young, and plays like he's still figuring out what he's capable of. Loves to open his feet and survey the ice, but turning that into actual speed up the ice still doesn't really come up a ton. He's an efficient offensive transition quarterback, but is rarely involved. He's an extremely strong, safe passer with flashes of offensive upside as well. Becoming a more projectable puck carrier to go with his passing ability would be awesome, and he continues to drive strong results without resorting to volume shooting from the blueline.

Tier 6 - Curiosities and Strong Thinkers

This tier starts with the only D+3 draft eligible I have ranked in Yegor Suchkov. He's already on Team Scouching, but I still just really love this little firecracker, and he just keeps improving his offense every year. He led his team in scoring, with Alexander Pashin hot on his heels in lower games played, but I love Suchkov's motor, skill, and creativity with the puck.
Kenta Isogai is part of a bright generation of Japanese players working through the ranks. Unfortunately he hasn't had international appearances for the Japanese team, and I would've loved him against Division 1A competition at the ongoing U18, but my USHL viewings will have to do. He's fast, skilled, loves to try things, and gets to the net with that speed and skill. He's undersized, but brings huge energy and great defensive abilities down the middle. I'll have an eye on him closely over the years but I think there's a lot of potential locked away if you look beyond his middling production.
Tristan Luneau is down here, mostly because I just haven't been particularly blown away by his game. He's a capable defender, but I see very limited upside, and a player who is more likely going to eat minutes and play some kind of replacement level hockey. He's got some skill, he's decently mobile, he's positionally aware off-puck, but a real mixed bag when it's all put together in my opinion. If he's gone in the first round, I'm not surprised but there are many other players I'd rather take a chance on, even if there's relative "safety" with Luneau.
Take what I just said about Luneau, and flip it to a player playing centre, and you've got Matyas Sapovaliv. An excellent player maintaining possession under pressure, but that's about where the positives end. There aren't many negatives, but he's a low pace player with okay skill for a big centre, and not a ton of speed to his game. Could he play in a bottom six? Sure. Would I pick him in the first 50 or so picks of the draft? Probably not.
Beau Jelsma is one of the more underrated OHLers in my view. High pace, slippery under pressure, hard worker at both ends, just a player I admire watching even if his upside is somewhat limited. Hat tip to Dylan Krill for the heads up on him.
Ludwig Persson is a great case of a pure finisher who I think has potential if he is just a bit more engaged at both ends, and refines his skill at a high pace of play in open ice. His SHL ice time was strong in the defensive sense, but it felt like every time he touched the puck, he'd lose it in transition. I'm hopeful but expected more based on what I had seen last season.

Tier 7 - Potential Guys!

James Finland is back. I really didn't like Suomi's game last year, heavily reliant on raw speed with the puck, and everything else wasn't great. He still isn't great defensively but boy is he ever fun to watch. He can drive pucks up the ice in the Liiga with does carry value. I'm not sure he gets drafted, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility.
There are a lot of forwards in this tier who are either marked by on-puck adaptive thinking or raw fluidity with the puck that makes the game look easy. Nicholas Moldenhauer, Matthew Poitras and Cole Knuble are the former, and Cameron Lund, Ryan Greene, and at times Jordan Dumais and Mathew Ward are the latter. I love Ward's skill, but he's going to need to take giant steps on his feet and frame to project in my view. Dumais keeps putting up strong data performances but I still struggle to see him projecting as much as his production indicates.
Fabian Wagner is a great example of a player I love catching glipmses of when tracking another player, but a player who has done extremely little while I'm tracking them. I'm not sure what to make of that, but I've seen some great pace and skill out of Wagner with little to show for it. If he's drafted, I'd be really interested to see where his game goes.
The defenders at the tail end of my list are all curious ones that I have liked in spurts. I like Langlois' skill and shiftiness, chasing offense often. I've liked Noah Warren's pure defensive upside driving through his mobility and physical play. I've liked Mastrodomenico's shot and fluid offensive puck carrrying, and I just really like Spencer Sova's footwork and skill that hasn't quite been exacerbated as much as it could. Are they going to be anything? I don't know! But many of these guys were on my Watchlist, and I did end up liking them more than many of the names below, so here they are.

The Watchlist

These are 25 names that for visual and/or data reasons have really stuck out to me. Some may be drafted, but I'll have my eye on all of them to see where they go in their careers.
Defenders often get drafted due to their skating ability, and Grayden Siepmann and Michael Fisher are example of that. I don't buy huge upside in either, but there are nice building blocks to work with.
I really wish Adam Zlinka didn't have his season cut so short so fast this year. Really fun player to watch, so I'll have my eye on him next season wherever he plays.
Sandis Vilmanis is a pretty fun skilled scorer to watch. I've seen him pull pucks around defenders, drive to the net, and get great elevation on shots in tight to score some impressive goals at the J20 level in Sweden. I'll be curious to see what happens with him next year.
Dylan James, Justin Varner and Alex Bump are all fluid, north-south offensive players that I've caught in the USHL here and there. James brings pace, Varner brings skill, and Bump brings a more all-around approach, but they've all driven solid results.
Josh Nadeau scored a ton in a pretty soft BCHL league this year, but I really like the skill and dual threat offense he brings. He's small and older for the draft class, but scored 40 goals this year and should immediately step in as a premier name at the University of Maine that has struggled to produce great results for a while.
Poor Jake Martin... Wisconsin didn't have a great year but I felt that he showed well whenever I saw him with that team. The puck management issues are still there in a way, but his defensive game translated well, and there is skill and mobility that are strong fundamentals to build on.
I just came across Oscar Pantzare when someone asked about him on stream and I've been really impressed. His puck management and passing are still works in progress, but his defensive mobility and stick are remarkable, with a great shot in the offensive zone. I would've really liked to have seen more of him in the J20, but I'm more than happy to circle back next year if he goes undrafted.
Sure, Lane Hutson and his brother Cole are getting attention, but older brother Quinn has been really impressive in my viewings of Muskegon. D+2 USHLers have become NHLers before, and I think Quinn could be another one. He attacks off the wings with skill and pace, pulls goalies open with his skill, and I'm extremely excited to see him jump to Boston University next year.

There you have it. The penultimate 2022 NHL Draft Rankings from Scouching. Like I said, there are a lot of question marks in this draft, and my strategy would be to give myself as many darts for the dartboard as I can find. At the top, there are about 15-20 legitimately interesting and exciting players as they are today, and beyond that, there's a pile of about 50 players that I think bring various desirable traits to the table that could turn into something interesting. Time will tell, but at worst, this draft could be a very interesting learning experience for myself to see how development can affect these players over the years and what traits to pay closer attention to.

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