Scouching's 2022 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship Preview

It's the greatest season of all! Happy Holidays everyone and I hope you're all well. If you've read these in prior years and just want access to the data sheet, say no more and click here!

The 2022 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship is upon us, and I think we're looking at one of the closer and more exciting tournament in the last couple years. While I believe there are medal favorites, some teams are bringing strong goaltending , some are loaded with young firepower, some are relying on strong defense, but many teams bring individuals who can help you win a tournament where a single line can land you in the medal rounds. COVID-19 prevented the promotion and relegation from last year, which unfortunately kept a relatively talented Belarusian group out of this tournament, and left in some teams that are likely to be back in Division 1A next year in Germany and Austria, but in any case, this tournament could turn out to be one of the closer installments we've seen recently.

Before getting into the team-by-team previews, I'd like to just clarify what the metrics you're looking at are and what their caveats are. INV% is simply the average percentage of goals the team scores where the player has a point. Typically 20-25% is a great measure for defenders, and over 30% is quite notable for forwards. NHLeS is a metric I developed to age, league and position adjust a player's production and INV% to illustrate their general value. 20+ is historically 1st round production, but this metric can be a bit misleading in men's league hockey in Europe, as ice time can affect the likelihood of production, and many skilled players are held back from scoring situations more than higher end players in those leagues. It's a nice catch-all, but it does not illustrate "who is better than whom".

In any case, onto the team previews, starting with the team I believe is likeliest to be demoted to Division 1A, ending with my gold medal pick.

Stay safe, enjoy the holidays, get vaccinated, and thank you so much for reading!

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10. Austria - 6.00 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Vinzenz Rohrer

• Yeah, I've got the Austrians losing out to the Germans, but it's a coin flip to me. Their gold medal game will be trying to defeat the German team and escaping relegation in the preliminary round, but what gives me hope is the individuals on the Austrian team can gain the upper hand on a German team without talents on the same level as Senna Peeters, Vinzenz Rohrer, and Marco Kasper.
• Sebastian Wraneschitz incredibly managed nearly a .900 save percentage with a goals against average of 7.45 last season, indicating one of the highest workloads over multiple games that I've ever seen a goaltender face, and I expect that to be the case this year.
• Yes, Luca Auer leads the way in NHLeS based on a remarkable Alps Hockey League season, but every time I've watched him, I see a decent finisher in a very, very poor quality league getting plenty of ice time in a variety of situations.
• Vinzenz Rohrer is a curiosity that has outperformed expectations after coming from Swiss junior hockey, and while I'm not quite buying his OHL production this season, I'll be curious to see what he does as a player Austria likely relies upon.
• Marco Kasper is in my 1st round in my upcoming rankings, so I'm hopeful that he can anchor the Austrian team with his responsible 200 foot game and projectable goal scoring in front of the net. Is he going to light the tournament on fire and score Austria into the playoff rounds? I'm not sure. Would I take Kasper over everyone on the German team? Probably, and sometimes in this tournament, that's all you need in order to escape relegation.
• That being said, these guys can't play 60 minutes, and the deciding factor may be Wraneschitz in that pivotal Germany game... and all the other ones they play.

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9. Germany - 4.46 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Adrian Klein

• No Tim Stützle. No JJ Peterka. No Lukas Reichel. Germany needed those first two players last year to get to where they got, and without them, I just don't like their chances.
• Florian Elias, Bennet Roßmy, Justin Volek, and Alexander Blank may be enough to escape relegation against who is likely to be Switzerland, but I find it unlikely that the Germans will find themselves in any situation outside of "Beat Austria so they go to relegation and you don't."
• Adrian Klein is an interesting defender I've seen play a little bit here and there, but I haven't seen much of a needle mover that I believe will be able to eat minutes against the best competition at this tournament. He's still the guy I'll be paying attention to.
• I wish there was more for me to say. I checked out some of these players prepping for this piece, and I just don't see much of a competitive team.

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8. Switzerland - 6.31 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler

• It's hard to ignore the decline that Switzerland has been on in recent years. As much as it pains me to say it, I struggle valuing the Swiss junior league, and many players who graduate to the National League or Swiss League have trouble moving the needle at higher levels.
• I do believe Switzerland has some curious names to keep an eye on. Simon Knak is a returnee that I believe will be a major player they'll rely on, but the strength of this team in my opinion lies on defense.
• Lian Bichsel is one of the more physical draft eligible defenders this year, Noah Meier is a steady presence that while may not NHL-level, he's held his own in pro hockey this season. Brian Zanetti is a player I've enjoyed as a junior as well, and Giancarlo Chanton is back after a very solid 2021 tournament. There's a decent group of defenders that should be able to keep the Swiss afloat enough to stick around for the year.
• Oh, and little Dario Sidler. I just love this dude. I still probably wouldn't draft him, but I'm tracking his career closely, and he's been one of the stronger players on a poor Swiss League academy team in Zug. He can shoot, he's got skill, and if a team can't stay out of the box against this Swiss team, Sidler on the power play can be a legitimate threat.
• All that being said, I have a hard time seeing this team getting enough points out of Slovakia, Sweden, Russia and the US to escape the relegation round, but I'd be stunned if they lost to Germany/Austria at that level.

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7. Czech Republic - 8.88 AvgNHLeS
​Eyes On: Jiri Kulich

• Ahh the Czech Republic... They've lost in the quarter finals in 7 of the last 8 tournaments, and I believe that trend will probably continue this year. As much as I love Jan Mysak as a junior, I don't think there's enough high end scoring to really make a dent, and goaltending remains a question mark.
• The strength of this team, similar to Switzerland, lies on their defense. David Jiricek will be a menace to deal with, so long as he stays out of the penalty box and utilizes linemates effectively with the puck. Stanislav Svozil is a returning stable presence on the backend. Jiri Tichacek remains one of the best undrafted players from 2021 and I would love to see him get some ice time in this tournament. Michael Krutil, David Moravec and Matej Pinkas have at least shown an ability to plug holes and play defensive hockey, even if they aren't lighting the lamp consistently.
• Jiri Kulich is one of the more underrated players in the draft to me. He's quick, solidly skilled, smart and responsible at both ends, and great in front of the net leading to his goal scoring so far this year. I personally prefer him slightly to Marco Kasper but their games are similar. I'm hoping he shows off what he's capable of on a bigger stage here.
• This is a team that I think should be able to avoid the relegation round over Switzerland, but an opponent like the USA, Russia or Sweden could create issues in the Quarterfinal rounds in multiple ways.

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6. Slovakia - 9.35 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Adam Sykora

• ​​The Slovakians and Austrians are bringing the youngest teams to this tournament on average by almost 3 months, but I'm far, far more optimistic about the Slovakians, and a strong performance from Simon Latkoczy could cause some headaches for a much more talented team.
• I mean, where do I begin with the fun? Dalibor Dvorsky is well over a point per game in the Swedish J20 league at 16 years old and has displayed a tremendously exciting brand of offensive hockey. Martin Chromiak has developed into a more dynamic scoring forward than I remember in his draft eligible season with improvements to his agility and pace of play. Filip Mesar is an intelligent, promising pivot who can play at both ends and solidify a line around him. Juraj Slafkovsky is just a monster. He's huge, he's hard for  Liiga talent to get on top of, and he may be one of the more physically dominant offensive players in this tournament as a draft eligible.
• Their defensive group is also relatively strong with personal favourite Samuel Knazko returning for his third tournament, and likely top ten pick Simon Nemec quarterbacking their offense from the defensive end. Marko Stacha is no slouch either with a strong defense-first game that fits well against junior competition.
• While many will be watching for Slafkovsky, I've seen him enough to know he's very good. I'll be looking at another draft eligible in Adam Sykora. I doubt he plays a major role for this team, but he's young, skilled, creative, and can really shoot the puck in my viewings.
• This is a team that may put a surprising, plucky performance together, but they'll be in tough against some powerful lines and teams in later stages.

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5. Finland - 9.42 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Brad Lambert

• The Finns are always a team that you can't count out. Joel Blomqvist has been having an excellent season at multiple levels, and great goaltending can take you far. 
• Beyond that, there's just a strong, well rounded roster of both forwards and defense. It's obviously disappointing that Aatu Raty again misses out on what would have been his final World Junior, but we can't have nice things often.
  
• I'm highly skeptical that Joakim Kemell sustains his production level, and his return from injury has been underwhelming, but he may still be a major player on the team. I'm personally looking more in Brad Lambert's direction for someone who could be driving the bus for the Finns. He's a tremendous puck transporter in the Liiga, and this tournament could be a reminder that he's still around and he's still one of the best players in the 2022 draft.
  
• I love that Juuso Mäenpää will be there. He's so tiny but zips so quickly and has chipped in offensively in the Liiga quite well in my viewings.
• Roby Järventie and his shot will likely be on full display, and I hope sincerely that 2021 favourite Ville Koivunen shows the world what he's capable of with his intelligence, puck management, and strong all-around game.
  
• Kalle Väisänen is another player I've been a fan of for quite a while, and think that the longer he takes to develop the better. He's huge and hulking, but he shows flashes of skill and agility to get off the boards well and make plays. I'd expect him to play a bigger role in 2023, but keep an eye out for him punishing junior aged players in this tournament.
  
• The defensive group is strong as well, of course anchored by Topi Niemelä who may very well be the best defender in the tournament when all is said and done. He's skilled, creative, intelligent and mobile, and should be a massive minutes eater for the Finns this year.
• Eemil Viro is a guy I'm kicking myself for not liking as much as I should've in 2020. His skating takes him a long way. While I don't see huge upside, I see a strong defensive player that Finland will need and appreciate.
• This is a team that I could see going all the way to be honest. It'd be an upset, and it'd probably take some great goaltending, but I could see it. Finland always brings an A-level team game with a combination of skill, physicality, and hard work. They're balanced and relatively deep, even if they may lack a true gamebreaker to send out with 90 seconds left in a playoff game.

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4. Russia - 9.95 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Vladimir Grudinin

• It's pretty hard to deny that Russian hockey culture really, really, really doesn't like when players leave Russia. Daniil Chayka was a huge defender for Russia last year, often crossing 20 minutes of ice time, and he was cut from the team this year in favor of objectively worse names. Daniil Gushchin has been a standout for the Russian international team for years, but he's nowhere to be found. In my view, these cuts and more actively made the team worse and may have put them at a significant disadvantage.
• That being said, this is a team of Russian hockey players. You never bet against them. If Canada's up 5-1 on them in a semi-final in the 3rd period, I'll still be holding my breath. A couple Marat/Pashin rushes up the ice, a couple shots from Matvei Michkov, and you could have a very interesting game very quickly. I was in the arena for the Collapse of 2011, and I'll never, ever forget it.
• Now, this team is still strong, and I expect they'll compete for a medal. They have some good scoring options in Chibrikov, Guslistov, and Ponomaryov, and one of the best players in the world for his age in Matvei Michkov. He's a magician. He'll shoot often from all over the ice, but he's a threat pretty much anywhere. He's a wonderful finisher and will likely be relied upon significantly.
• Vladimir Grudinin is the player I'll be looking for. I don't know how much he'll play, but I want to see him against high end junior competition. He's riding the edge of my first round right now, and I've liked the KHL tape I've seen with the four way quickness, skill level, and flashes of confidence.
• I'm very pleased to see Team Scouching member Pavel Tyutnev here. He's just earned it after years of strong play in various levels. He's dynamic, skilled and reliable at both ends, and I'll be excited to see where he ends up on this roster.
• I know Yaroslav Askarov has been great for a few years overall, but in the World Juniors to this point? Flip a coin. Heads? Russia could win it all. Tails? They may get shocked in the quarterfinals if the firepower goes silent.
• Could this team have been better? Absolutely. Are they bad? I don't believe so, but they're going to have to battle in order to keep up with the teams ahead and the plucky Finns we just covered.

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3. Sweden - 10.60 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Fabian Lysell

• The Swedes are a team that could really go far if their best names produce, because those names are terrific. William Eklund is a wonderfully dynamic offensive threat at any forward position, Alexander Holtz could score a pile of goals, especially if you take penalties against this team, Fabian Lysell is exciting and dependable at both ends, and Oskar Olausson has a proven track record of using skill and deception to carve opposing defenses apart.
• Simon Edvinsson anchors a talented defense group with Emil Andrae and Helge Grans with a solid supporting cast, and should provide both strong defense in front of Jesper Wallstedt as well as some offensive punch to support the offensive leaning players.
• Daniel Torgersson is another interesting one, with his size and skill combination making him a deadly option around the net.
• On the Pavel Tyutnev note from before, I'm just really glad Elias Stenman is getting a chance. He isn't flashy or a likely NHL prospect, but he's smart and dependable, able to anchor a line and play strong hockey up the middle supporting both offensive and defensive players.
• Oh yeah, Isak Rosén is going to be there. I've seen many different versions of Rosén, but his scoring instincts are hard to ignore. I like the guy as a swiss army knife player offensively.
• I'm sure many will be watching Zion Nybeck, and I'll be one of those people too, but only to see the progress he's made, because in my view, he had lots of progress to conquer before becoming the player he has been against junior competition.
• Jesper Wallstedt has been having an excellent season in the SHL, and I expect him to be more than capable of taking Sweden as far as he wants to take them.
• My eyes will be on Fabian Lysell, because I find it difficult for them not to be. They aren't bringing any draft eligibles, but I'll be looking to see if Lysell is the player I know he can be. He's quick, works extremely hard at both ends, has the capability of attacking the middle with pace, and just does so much so well, that I'd love to see him break out and take this tournament by storm.

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2. United States - 15.37 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Scott Morrow

• The defending gold medalists could very well repeat in my view. They have a strong, deep team that only really has a weakness in net. They're a team full of strength, speed, and some skill players that will get you out of your seat.
• While I'm not the biggest fan of Pastujov as an NHL prospect, he should be a major producer in this tournament for the States. Jake Sanderson could probably be in the NHL right now, so he'll likely be a massive player. Brett Berard had a coming out party last year and I expect a repeat this year. He's a guy I'm a big fan of, and I've been pleased with his development.
• Scott Morrow could be in your Twitter timeline with how confident and creative he is with his skill. I love the dude and can't wait to see him here.
• Matthew Knies is a player I misevaluated last year. Dealing with COVID issues and injuries were things I lost in the shuffle, and he's really turned a corner this year with a good power game off the wings.
• I don't know who Dominic James is.
• Luke Hughes is going to be a fun one as well, I think. He has had an excellent freshman season with Michigan, and his skill and confidence should be on display just as it will be for Morrow.
• Logan Cooley is a pleasant surprise to see on the team. He's a dynamic, mobile offensive player who has pushed tremendous results in my tracking work to this point.
• It's pretty simple to me, I think if the States get competent goaltending, they could win the whole thing. They many not have quite as talented a team as last year, but they're more than capable of winning against anyone with this group.

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1. Canada - 19.65 AvgNHLeS
​Eyes On: Shane Wright

• I just want to reiterate that I think the teams at the top here are really, really close. I think the United States and Canada are a step ahead, but if goaltending shows up, and the best players on other teams just have that extra "I want to beat Canada" oomph at the right time, things could get very interesting.
• On the other hand, Canada is looking absolutely gross. Everywhere you look, there are players either marked by physical intensity, offensive skill, scoring ability, or pure, raw mobility.
• Sebastian Cossa will be tested, but he should be more than capable based on what I've seen of him over the last two seasons.
• Yes, I'm the person who had questions about Owen Power and ranked him lower than anyone, but his game has evolved in the way that I hoped it would, leaning into the offensive side of the game while patching holes defensively. He's a great creator that can be tough to stop in transition, and I expect him to play a big role for this team.
• I'm hoping Mavrik Bouque has a nice breakout tournament as an offensive catalyst. He's earned the chance to present his game to the world with his creativity and ability to adapt to pressure.
• Elliot Desnoyers is in a similar boat. I was straight up asleep on that dude when he was drafted, and I shouldn't have been. He's been excellent when I've seen him since, and he should be a solid role player on this team.
• Don't sleep on Justin Sourdif either. I've loved him every time I've seen him since being drafted by Florida. I still do question if the offense follows him to the NHL, but he's energetic, crafty and gets to the net well. I feel he could be a big piece of this offense regardless of where he slots in on the depth chart.
• Remember when Olen Zellweger wasn't drafted in the first round and a lot of other defenders were, and they aren't here? I remember. Zellweger is a wonderful skater with solid skill and confidence with the puck in the offensive zone. He's only gotten better this season and I'm so excited to see what he can pull off here, assuming he's played as much as he should be.
• Shane Wright is my guy to watch, but not because I think he's "sick", but because I want to see him against high level junior competition on a big stage. Honestly, while I see the appeal of Wright as the #1 player this year, I have been underwhelmed with his potential impact at the NHL level. The shot is wonderful, the skill and brain work well together to move pucks into new lanes, and his read of the ice is often strong, but I'll be keeping a close eye on him as I don't believe it should be unanimous to have him at the #1 slot.
• The only hole I can see in this team is a hole that has affected them in the past, which is staying out of the box. Ridly Grieg cannot put himself in a situation to get suspended again, unless it means not taking worse penalties at worse times later in the tournament. Same goes for guys like Ryan O'Rourke, Kaiden Guhle and Mason McTavish. They can absolutely smash and crash, but in IIHF tournaments, that can be an issue.
• This is still a team that can steamroll their way to the finals, just like they did last year, only to be challenged by a skilled, fast and hungry USA team. They're deep, they're diverse, and they're 

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I'm so excited for this year's tournament. The top level teams are looking awesome. The teams beneath them have strong individuals and goaltending, which can carry you far in the tournament, and even in the quarterfinals I believe there's potential for some upsets. This is the best hockey tournament out there, in my opinion and I'm always always thrilled to watch it. The respect I have for these players is remarkable, and all I'm trying to do is evaluate and learn more about this wonderful game, and present findings to an audience to make the game a bit more interesting (hopefully). I'd urge everyone to please be cordial and respectful towards each other and the players in this tournament. They're still young, they're developing, mistakes happen in junior hockey, and this tournament is often not free of controversy. The World Juniors are wonderful because of what they are. Kids chasing a dream on the international stage, wearing their colors for millions to see, and we're all the more better for it.

My prediction for the medals? Canada takes home the gold in a rematch against the United States, with Sweden taking the Bronze over one of Finland and Russia, but this could be a wild, wild tournament, so strap in.

That's all for now! Thank you so much for taking the time to read and flip through my spreadsheet. Any changes to lineups and jersey numbers will be update in the sheet and here, so bear with me while things are finalized.

Be safe, be well, and enjoy the hockey!

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