Scouching's Final 2019 Draft Rankings

Welcome to the final Scouching Rankings for the 2019 NHL Draft. If you haven't viewed the accompanying video profiling the higher end of the rankings, be sure to click here and check it out!

As always, thank you all for the support through the year. I think the season was a huge building block for the project and I can't wait to see where we're at in 2020 and beyond. Without you, the reader, none of this would be possible.

This ranking outlines some of the important metrics I track over the year in the Prospect Tracker, so if you need a refresher on what these numbers mean, look no further:

• DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
• ​NHLeS - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of >20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
• Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
• Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.

A Brief Note: There are no goalies in this ranking, mostly because they seem to be evaluated on a different plane than skaters, but in short, based on what I've seen with my eyes, Spencer Knight, Pyotr Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Konovalov, Isaiah Saville, Taylor Gauthier, Trent Miner, Erik Portillo and Hunter Jones are a "Top-10" set of goaltenders that I'd have my eye on for varying reasons. Amir Miftakhov is a curious one as well, just off of how many pucks he faced in a pro men's league and his remarkable athleticism. 

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Tier I - Hughes v. Kakko

• Let's make this clear up front. Jack Hughes is the #1 prospect in this draft. At the same time, this does not mean there isn't a discussion to be had. Both players bring different traits to the game, but the traits Hughes brings are rarer, and likely more beneficial to pushing play positively when it matters most.
• Hughes is a phenomenal skater who is a puck rushing monster with exceptional vision in the offensive zone.
• Kakko brings an advantage in terms of his play along the boards, resiliency with the puck, and his track record of producing at a high level in a very difficult league, and he will be a very nice consolation prize at #2 for the Rangers.
• I believe both players could be viewed similarly in a few years in terms of on-ice impact, but the tools Hughes brings to the table is something every team could always use more of, but comes at a cost most teams are unwilling to pay.
• Hughes with Taylor Hall for the next season at the least gives me anxiety.

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Tier II

• ​This is a group that separated themselves more and more over the year to me. Byram and Turcotte appear to be isolating themselves at 3/4 in the public sphere, but you could make the case that any of these players have the talent to go in any order at these picks.
• Kirby Dach is bar none my favourite player in this draft to watch play not named Kakko or Hughes. His combination of creativity, skill, power, and the ease with which he plays the game is just wonderful to watch, and his ceiling could lead him to be on a similar level to Hughes and Kakko, but he really needs to capture his play at it's best more often. Going over 20% of the season with a 0.2 points per game scoring rate isn't going to take you far, but I'm more than optimistic.
• I was a Podkolzin doubter, but I see the appeal after digging in deeper. Remarkable ferocity to his game, forces his opposition to make a play, and moves pucks up the ice remarkably, but I'm skeptical of his upside.
• Arthur Kaliyev here might surprise folks, but the more I watch, the more I actually really like. He strikes me as a Patrik Laine-esque player, just with a more varied offensive skillset, minus the A+++ shot. Kaliyev isn't the sexiest player in transition, but around the net, he can be gross. His hands are exceptional. His vision is underrated. His swagger factor is through the roof. The only thing that could hold him back is what's between his ears. He'll probably slip quite far due to perceived motivational issues and his position, but I think he can hang with this group.
• The Cole Caufield hype train is in full force. He continued to improve all year and could be a remarkable goal scorer in the NHL. I think he brings more to the game than an Alex DeBrincat, especially when it comes to his mobility and puck skill, but there are legitimate questions surrounding his play in his own end, but when push comes to shove, he does the hardest thing in hockey really, really well.

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Tier III

• These are guys I see as interesting prospects that could be useful players one day, but may have lower ceilings, or riskier high ceilings.
• It's no secret that I'm a huge Bobby Brink fan. His team's scoring dropped by 50% without him in the lineup. A year ago, he was nowhere to be found. Yes, his skating is poor, but his approach to the game, his two-way metrics, and his ability to dance with the puck in tight areas indicate that if his skating can come a few strides, he could be a massive, massive steal.
• Ryan Suzuki is very much a perimeter player, but Joe Veleno has some very similar looking metrics last year, and he's turned out okay. Suzuki has the talent to be an aggressive attacking offensive player, and all the creativity you could want, but it seems he's reluctant to jump into dangerous areas. With some strength on his frame, he could be special, even if he strays more to the outside of the ice quarterbacking an offense.
• Connor McMichael has all the speed he could ever want, but doesn't use it a ton and seems a bit inefficient in generating that speed. Do I care? Not really. The guy might need to turn it up a notch in his own end, but getting to dangerous areas and scoring no-BS points is his game, and you can never have enough of that on your team.
• Nicholas Robertson is small, but very young for the draft, and I've come away impressed every time. He has remarkable puck skill, vision and skating ability, but is another perimeter player who played a lot more wing than centre, and his deeper metrics were "fine". My eyes tell me there's a number of higher gears for him to hit, and he was highly consistent all year, so I'm hopeful for Robertson moving forward.
• I honestly have no idea where Moritz Seider's career is heading, but I like his combination of skills. I think there are players with more tangible upside, but if I had multiple first rounders this year, I could easily take a swing and see what happens.
• Bjornfot, Broberg and Soderstrom. Three very different players, three different levels of upside. I think Broberg could end up being the best of the three based on his mobility, power and puck protection ability, but there's a ways to go with him. Decisionmaking and puck movement are issues that will need fixing. Bjornfot has been a favourite of mine all year and he could have great offensive potential. Soderstrom is probably the likeliest of all to work out as a responsible two-way minutes eater, but I don't see a huge ceiling there.

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Tier IV

• Now we're in the real nitty gritty. This is a massive group that I think has a lot of really, really interesting talent available.
• Artemi Knyazev is an exceptional skater with great offensive ability and he improved in the back half of the season, nearly doubling his NHLeS in the process.
• I really like Matthew Robertson's tools, but his numbers don't jump out at you. I think there's a really nice defender there, but I'm not sure what the ceiling is there.
• Jamieson Rees and Albin Grewe are just so much fun to watch. They play hard, they play with skill, they come at you at all times and I've come to really love that style of play, so long as the play doesn't get carried away, can actually score points, and don't put themselves in bad positions when things don't go their way.
• My thoughts on Ethan Keppen, Zac Jones and Dom Fensore are well documented and could be steals, Fensore especially. You can't hit what you can't catch, and Fensore is probably the 2nd best skater on the USA U-18 team behind Jack Hughes to my eyes.
• I was fully expecting Yegor Serdyuk to be underwhelming based on what I had heard through the grapevine, but after a few viewings, I think he's tremendously undervalued. His skating is solid, he can protect a puck well, his skill is solid, and I saw him attempt dangerous plays time after time that could have been great opportunities for his teammates. 
• I've always really liked John Beecher. Big centre who can skate and rough it up along the boards to free up pucks and make a play. Not sure there's tremendous offensive upside there, but with some good linemates, he could be a very interesting player.
• Leevi Aaltonen is one of my favourites in this range to watch. Tremendous skater who I found begging to play a more aggressive game. He's truly gifted with his feet, and is more than willing to shoot or pass to put points up, but his shots come from a ways out more often than you'd like. The tools are there, the metrics are there, and if he gets a bit more confidence, look out.
• If Nikita Alexandrov were a day older, he'd be a 2018 eligible. As basically a D+1, his production wasn't great, but he's devastating around the net and plays hard with some solid skill. Might be a low ceiling, but he plays the game right and could chip in sooner than some others in this range.
• Lassi Thomson always struck me as "Evan Bouchard but not as good", and to have Evan Bouchard's profile and be successful, you almost need to be as good as Evan Bouchard is. Thomson's skating isn't fantastic, but he can really crank it from the point, and he does it often. His team wasn't great, but his two-way metrics look solid. He might be gone after round one, but if he starts slipping deeper into the 2nd, I could certainly take the chance.
• People are labeling Patrik Puistola as a potential steal, and I could see it. There are flashes of a real skilled scoring winger. He might be a complimentary player in the NHL, but I could easily see him in any NHL jersey contributing offensively if he captures his best traits more often.

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Tier V

• These are the real interesting guys who I swing on in the middle rounds.
• Jayden Struble is an offensive defender I think could be ranked even higher. I'm a big fan of his skating and skill, but I'm just skeptical of prep players based on my viewings. It's just so hard to gauge their actual talent when the quality of their games is simply a few steps below most other major junior leagues. Almost the same situation as John Farinacci from my viewings. Great skaters, great tools, tons of production, but what happens at the next level?
• Albert Johansson has great offensive tools, but his defensive play and decision making needs work. Tailed off quite a bit down the back half of the year as well.
• Marshall Warren is almost certainly gone by the 3rd round, but I really like his power and skating on his feet. Not sure of what his upside is, but he had some really nice flashes in my time watching that team.
• Lucas Feuk stands out in a number of ways on paper, similar to Linus Karlsson last year, but I'll admit I haven't seen a tremendous amount of him.
• Kim Nousiainen breaks the 25%INV threshold for defenders that I value quite a bit, and I think that is worth swinging on singlehandedly. I liked his U18, but his metrics are what stick out to me.
• Mattias Norlinder has really caught on in recent months and I certainly think I had nothing to do with it, but I've been a fan of his for a while this year, especially once he hit the Allsvenskan. Great skater with great hands and is a lot of fun to watch.

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The "Who Knows" Watchlist

•  ​I've been a fan of Joe Garreffa for a few years now and he continues to produce. More of an offensive waterbug who may have more PP upside than anything, he brings great energy, great pace, and great offensive ability, and late in the draft he could easily be an overage swing someone takes.
• Part of me still believes in Blake Murray's goal scoring. A player I wanted to dig into more and expected more from, he should still be picked as a "we'll see" player. I'm still not sure.
• Pontus Englund is an analytical darling from the Swedish U20 league, and he's off to Liiga powerhouse KalPa next year. The guy scored a ton on a bad team, and can absolutely smash pucks from the blueline.
• Really liked Simon Gnyp's offensive play at the U18s, but he's a long term project.
• Nathan Staios would be a pick solely on his skating and offensive play. He needs work in his own end, and taking his overall game to another level, but his motor and fluidity are excellent.
• Rtishchev, Lisin, Fyodorov, Ogirchuk and Komissarov are all great fun overagers I enjoyed watching out of Russia this year, and Chistyakov could be the Alex Romanov of 2019. Great skater who can pass pucks effectively.
• Mike Koster is here solely due to his metrics. They're insane. He's way down my board because I've never been impressed with him unless he's at the blueline and making a play from there. His mobility isn't great and Rhett Pitlick always impressed me more.
• Cooper Moore is a defender with a 35% involvement at prep school, not the highest level of hockey that I find hard to gauge, but those numbers are interesting and he could be one to keep an eye on.

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Final Thoughts

This year's draft to me is characterized by a ton of different players from a variety of different backgrounds. I'm not quite sure of how much Grade-A Talent will be coming out of this draft, but the USA National Program was one of the greatest teams I've ever seen play at this level, and I'm fascinated at where these guys may end up. Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are extremely high level talents that should contribute immediately, but beyond that, how you develop these players will be vital. I do strongly believe that once you pass the 2nd round, you could come away with a lot of very interesting prospects at every pick. There are enigmas everywhere, and there could be some great players to come out of places in this draft that you wouldn't expect.

With this article, the pre-draft coverage from Scouching is complete. There will be a post-draft video coming, and be sure to tune in to Scouching's inaugural mock draft, Wednesday, June 19th at 9:30EST, and definitely check out Scouch's Draftathon Friday, June 21st at 7:30PM, as well as Saturday, June 22nd at 10:30AM, where we'll be tracking all 7 rounds live. If you can, donations collected during the streams will go to the YouCanPlay Project, so be sure to come see what we're up to!

Thank you all, if you're a Twitter follower, YouTube subscriber, or a Patreon supporter, it all means the world to me. We'll be back in 2019-20 bigger and better than ever for what looks to be the best draft I've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.