The Scouching Blog

Scouching's Final 2022 NHL Draft Rankings

6/22/2022

Hello once again! Welcome to the final rankings here at Scouching.ca. It's been a very interesting cohort of athletes to watch for a variety of reasons. While I don't believe the highest of high picks are going to completely transform a team's trajectory, they should be very valuable core members of any NHL team, with some having flashes of potential to be something more in certain areas of the game. While some may take that and label the draft as "weak", one thing I've learned over the years is to think of the draft as analyzing trends in the financial markets. Everything comes down to probability, and like in financial markets, there can be a lot of uncertainty that can affect the future of a security or commodity. In this year's NHL Draft, I think that level of uncertainty begins sooner than a few previous drafts I've analyzed, but there are a solid group of players in my top two rounds that bring potential to bring a positive impact to the NHL with time, patience, development and trust. Some have more to work on with some risk, some are more easier to project into an NHL role down the lineup at worst. Could we look back on this draft and see it as "weak"? I think it's possible, but not at all a certainty. I think certain teams could capitalize on certain inefficiencies that remain in the draft process and get some great value through strong development and accurate evaluation of strengths and weaknesses and this class could start to look a bit deeper than we think. I'd also think that these riskier probabilities stretch higher into the draft than we're used to, and some players drafted quite high may not carry much more if any value than some players cherry-picked at the tail end of the first round or even into the second.

In any case, this has been a very interesting year to add to my own resume of work to reflect on. I'm almost certainly going to be inaccurate when looking back in five years, and it's always important to constantly self-reflect and improve on processes and how to weigh certain areas of what I see on the ice and in the data. My core philosophy hasn't really changed all that much. I don't mind taking on more risk if it means the player in question could bring skills that make them talents you wish you had more of at the NHL level. I will always value players with higher end individual traits that could slot into a clear NHL role with possible success over players that are competent all-around if not exciting. Some may disagree and go for "safety" over risk, but that's the beauty of evaluating talent in a professional sports environment. There are many ways to be successful, it's just a matter of having a strong organizational philosophy that you trust can bring you success over the long term. In terms of the types of players I gravitate to, I've always held that speed, skill, pace and the ability to problem solve and make plays in close quarters are major factors that can make a player impactful at the NHL level. Biometric factors and other intangible factors carry a certain level of weight with me, but I always go back to the end results and the quality of play coming from a player. If the results are great but the players lack that speed, skill, pace and problem solving ability that I look for, that player is devalued, especially if they're undersized on top of it all. If they are struggling to produce those results on the scoresheet but carry those traits, they may be worth nurturing and working with over a long period to try to get that puck to go in the net more often than it does, and in my experience, betting on those traits leads to generally greater success, especially outside of the early rounds of the draft.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

With that, please enjoy the final 2022 rankings, and see you for the 2022 Scouching Draft-A-Thon on July 8, 2022, starting a half hour before the 2nd round begins, which will be some unconfirmed time on the morning of that day. See you there!

The Watchlist

There are just so many interesting names here I didn't get to see quite enough of. There's a lot of highly skilled yet highly undersized players that lack strength under pressure but show great talent and scoring ability that I've noted.
Specifically, Justin Cote, Josh Nadeau, Jeremy Wilmer, Jere Lassila, and Kocha Delic all fit this bill, and could be nice swings in the late rounds. I love Wilmer's hands and finishing ability through misdirection, shooting and passing, but his agility and speed generation ability are still a major shortcoming that limits his projectability. Josh Nadeau has been essentially the same thing, just in the BCHL, but I've really liked the potential of his game and will keep an eye on him as he goes off to what should be a major role with the University of Maine.
I was hoping for more from Sandis Vilmanis at the U18s for Latvia, but he's shown some great individual skill on the rush with strong finishing ability that I've liked to see. Another guy I'm not sure I'd draft, but he belongs on this list for the flashes of high skill I've seen.
There are also a few interesting defenders I've seen over the year that I wanted to keep an eye on and highlight. Michael Fisher has caught some attention and I do like his puck carrying and north-south intensity, but I felt if he wasn't individually carrying the puck and driving offensively himself, he had issues with reading the ice and passing the puck, but there's interesting potential here in limited viewings.
I've had an eye on Ryan Healey for two years now after watching Brent Johnson last year. He's skilled, has a great wrist shot release, and a pretty dependable puck carrier with strong deception and footwork. I'm surprised he isn't scoring more, but I've seen some impressive flashes out of Healey that could be leveraged.
Re-entry defensemen Dario Sidler and Jimi Suomi are undersized but exceptional skaters with good skill. Suomi didn't look out of place with TPS in the Liiga this year after a seriously lacklustre series of viewings I had last year. I don't expect either to be drafted, but they're fun to watch!
Luke Mittelstadt was a player I had serious defensive concerns about, but his offensive tools took a step and produced significantly better this season, and I really wanted Jake Martin to have a better showing with a poor Wisconsin team, but in my viewings of him, he wasn't playing particularly poorly in my view and could benefit from a change.
In watching the Edmonton Oil Kings during the playoffs, Braeden Wynne is a player who I've noted in his very limited ice time for his skill level and four-way mobility, playing strong defensive hockey in transition, but a lack of speed generation and a tendency to play with a bit too much skill extending proocessing time that limited his offense. I think there's a nice long term upside player here but being a CHLer with a more limited runway does affect things.
Watching Brad Lambert at a recent U20 tournament, he was playing on a line with Konsta Kapanen, yes, another Kapanen, and Kasperi's kid brother, who I had heard very little about. I really loved the skill and pace in Kapanen's game working off Lambert's puck possession ability. He's undersized, but brings evasion and intensity that 2021-eligible Oliver somewhat didn't bring. I don't see it likely he gets drafted but he's on this list so I don't forget he exists going into next year.
On the European side, I've just really liked Oscar Pantzare for similar reasons to Wynne. Skilled, a great shot from the point, great mobility and defensive results. He has the benefit of a longer runway as well and I felt should've played significantly more at the J20 level this year. Ludvig Markman is a name I've heard nothing about, but he showed well in the third division in Sweden with very good results at the J20 level for Karlskrona. He's got a decent set of skill and finishing ability, but I didn't see enough to land him on my actual list. Adam Engstrom is a guy I've liked for his safety and reliability with a well-rounded game. I don't know if I'd draft him but you could do much worse in later rounds.

Tier 6 - Potential Guys and Projects

Players like Isaiah George, Topi Ronni, Matyas Sapovaliv, Rieger Lorenz, and Noah Warren all feel like players with the size, strength, and physical play to at least fill a depth job in the NHL. Personally, I don't carry a ton of value in those players in my philosophy but if you can land them in the 2nd round or even later, they could be good picks. They're mobile enough, physical enough and with development, I can't say they won't be players, but in my view, first round picks they are not.
Alexander Pelevin, Tomas Hamara, and Kasper Kulonummi are all relatively skilled and mobile players with room to grow. Pelevin closes gaps well and finds passing options with skill and deception very well, and I was impressed with a similar area of the game with Hamara and Kulonummi at the recent U18s in heavy usage.
Adam Bares and Kenta Isogai are a project's project. Isogai got a lot more comfortable over the year and improved his production down the stretch while being one of the youngest players in the draft. He's got a lack of size, but plenty of speed, skill and determination driving excellent shooting metrics and if he can get a bit more agile and resilient under pressure in transition, he could carry great value as a late round swing. Bares caught my eye at the U18s, and he had very limited ice time at the U20 level in Finland, but he produced very well at even strength with great agility and skill, using it to create passing lanes and space under pressure. It may take four full years of development to see where his potential lies, but I liked him somewhat more than some of the other names others are speaking about, and similar to Isogai, as a late round guy, I could see him paying dividents.
I wanted more out of Ludwig Persson but it felt like his game simplified and stagnated with Frolunda this year. He was one of the best individual drivers of dangerous chances as a forward through strength and an impressive sense of positioning and timing in the middle of the ice, but I haven't seen the high flying transition player I saw last year, even if he brought good defensive intensity and off-puck instincts even in his limited SHL time. If people forget about him, he could be a curious pickup in the middle rounds.
On the Swedish note, Fabian Wagner has been a player that catches my eye constantly in small moments off-puck but the same is simply not there at 5v5 in my tracking work. His skill level is clearly apparent, but I've constantly wanted to see more ability to consistently drive play and make an impact outside of isolated moments of one on one skill.
Reid Schaefer could have some nice potential. He's big, physical and determined but has a skill level most larger players don't have at this age. The time I spent watching and tracking him left me wondering about his style of play projects without more skating development and a better ability to get himself to scoring areas. He struggled to string passes to linemates together in many areas of the ice and relied on volume perimeter shooting, but the tools and potential are there with good skill and finishing ability.
Ah look, Jordan Dumais, and a few other somewhat undersized and simplistic skilled forwards Vinzens Rohrer, Cedrick Guindon, Joel Jonsson and Nicholas Moldenhauer. I know Dumais is scoring a ton, and I do like his volume offense mindset getting pucks inside the middle of the ice, but he lacks natural pace and escape speed with poor defensive metrics at 5v5 and I just struggle to see a path to the NHL that warrants a slot in higher tiers. I love Rohrer's determination and hands, Guindon's effective and simplistic approach to scoring, Jonsson's potential draft day value and finishing touch, and Moldenhauer's puck management and intelligence, but all of these players will need to build on their pace skating while getting stronger to project. Escape speed and agility are pivotal for undersized players, but I do like Guindon's ability to battle through pressure and work around high danger areas to generate greasy scoring chances.
Matthew Seminoff could be a nice auxilliary physical forward on a team's bottom six I guess? I like his size and intensity level off-puck, working as a nice piece with names like Josh Pillar and Logan Stankoven on his line creating space for them and driving off-puck pressure himself. I don't see a ton of upside but I like the type of player he is as a player you pick later in the draft.
Yeah, I've got Yegor Suchkov still on the board. He led his VHL team in scoring, 12 points ahead of the next highest scorer on the team. It's his last year of eligibility, but his skill level, pace, and work rate is still absolutely wonderful to watch. I've talked about him for years now, and will keep a keen eye on his career.
Speaking of re-entries, it's Lukas Gustafsson! Yeah, I still think this player should be drafted, even if he didn't score a bazillion points this year like I hoped. He's one of the most aggressive and confident offensive defenders in there, but I'm also of the belief he spent large parts of this year finding when and how to use his creativity to his advantage. Some passing ideas and reads were very poor and unnecessarily complex, others were executed simply and masterfully. Some rushes up the ice were direct straight line into triple coverage, others were agile and end-to-end with dangerous chances at the end of his possessions. I'm playing the long game here and can't wait to see him at Boston College.
Ryan Greene is a player that I think outperforms where I have him ranked when it comes to fluid skating, skill and ability to quarterback offensive transitions and a great feel for passing that put him #1 among forwards in pass percentage and #1 in offensive transition efficiency at 87.8%. If he's available in the mid rounds and you think you could up his intensity level and willingness to win offensive battles and create more chances at 5v5, he could be a great pickup.
Credit to Joel Henderson on conducting the Marcus Nguyen train. He's got a solid baseline of skill and strong edges to evade pressure and earned great chances in limited ice time. There was a relatively small sample on my part, but as a late round swing I could see some good scoring upside from Nguyen over the years. Late round CHL picks carry a shorter runway of evaluation before their rights expire, but Nguyen is a player that may make some feel a little more comfortable with that timeframe as his ice time grows in Portland.

Tier 5 - Role Players and Higher End Projects

This is a group of really interesting players that may slip through the cracks for various reasons regarding visibility, lack of production, injury or an imperfect talent profile with some significant gaps.
Some in this group like Adam Ingram, Luca Del Bel Belluz and Rutger McGroarty bring some great moments in isolation, Ingram with his pass vision and timing, Del Bel Belluz with his combination of size, skill and finish, and Rutger McGroarty with the quality of his shot and mental map of the ice leading to strong transition passing metrics, but all of these players bring intensity and pace concerns that I think could seriously limit their ability to produce at higher levels.
I've gone back and forth on Jordan Gustafson a ton this year. He definitely needs to get better with generating agility and space in his first couple steps facing pressure, but he's a great puck distributor and offensive transition quarterback with strong, well rounded offensive output that can be leveraged more if he works on his puck skill and agility a bit. The brain and mindset are there, and he was top 5 in total zone transitions in my work this year among forwards, and there could be a lot to explore with Gustafson if he can be had in the middle rounds.
Similar things can be said about Danny Zhilkin, but where Gustafson has the brain for puck movement, Zhilkin is flashier with a much heavier offensive lean. The defensive game is much more lacklustre from Zhilkin due to his lack of involvement and quickness in general, but he was #2 in my tracking in Offensive Threat and I almost tracked an hour of 5v5 ice time. That offense also came from both dangerous chances and creating dangerous chances both sitting in the top 10, but I worry about the pace of his game and the need for more involved players on his line without the puck to help him be the offensive catalyst he can be. First or second guy I draft? Probably not, but if he's the 3rd one, I'm thrilled.
I want Paul Ludwinski to be a thing so bad. I feel like in 10 years he'll be a player that shows up best when things are tough. His motor is one of the highest in terms of consistency this year, especially without the puck. There's remarkable offensive transition efficiency in somewhat limited involvement, but a ton of them are driven through his passes or carries, not relying on receptions. He doesn't take shots from bad areas, and if he gains an extra level of finishing ability and learns to modify the pace of his game a bit to make space a bit better, I think there's a ton of headroom. At worst, I could easily see him being a meat and potatoes high energy guy you don't really expect much offense from, but you want him on the ice anyway for the energy he brings.
Jiri Tichacek is still quite an impressive little defenseman. Playing in the top division in Czechia this year, he didn't look out of place in any of the games I saw and tracked, with great offensive transition results, a great shot from the point and flashes of offensive potential that I think can be leveraged even more than they are. The highly involved defensive player took a bit of a backseat but I felt it was largely due to an improved ability to maintain possession and avoid defense in the first place when turnovers are generated. He's already on Team Scouching and I don't regret it, and he's the type of defenseman I think could still be seen as undervalued in the world with the mobility, skill and defensive instincts he brings.
Tyler Duke started the year much higher on my list and slowly worked his way down. I still think worse players will get drafted before him, if he even gets drafted, but I love the skill, pace and offensive talent Duke brings to the table. He needs to work on his mobility and generating speed, but his determination and results are impossible to ignore, with offensive upside that didn't get to come out as often as I had hoped coming into the season.
Tristan Luneau could be an NHL player, sure. NHL coaches will play him. He's moderately skilled and deceptive, and doesn't take on too much risk, but I also have issues with his actual defensive results and tape looks I just don't think he carries the kind of upside in a defender that I personally gravitate to higher in the draft, but he's a simple enough player that doesn't take a ton of risk and lands some chances offensively working off the blueline that makes me think he'll be drafted higher than this and NHL coaches will put him over the boards expecting someone who won't screw up. Is that possible for him? Sure. Is more possible? I can't say no. If you get that in the 2nd round, neat, but I struggle to see a first rounder or top-40 player out of Luneau as he is.
Alexis Gendron on the other hand, I love. He's raw, unrefined, and needs time which you don't really have in the CHL, especially as an 03, but I feel if he were traded to or on an QMJHL contender, he'd be much more visible to people. A great motor and willingness to get to scoring areas or get pucks to scoring areas, Gendron certainly needs to work on generating speed and while his skill level looks good at times, it's very unrefined and somewhat sloppy at others in transition especially. I think he's really flying under radars as a potential late round target. He scored 30 goals this season with four in six playoff games, didn't have a great supporting cast, and brings really interesting tools that I could be interested in if he's available late.
I can see someone drafting Christian Kyrou and pasting him to as skating coach or three for the next season or two, and he wildly outperforms his draft slot. The hands, shot quality, and confidence level are some of the most impressive in combination among defenders this year. He just has massive issues with his footwork and mobility and that gets heavily exposed defensively, especially in transition. He's an upside pick that I could see being drafted significantly higher, and it's abundantly clear to me that his brother is Jordan Kyrou. If he can gain a few steps on his feet over the next little while, he could bring excellent offensive energy to a defense corps.
Elias Salomonsson... What do I even say? He was a player I thought would be well into the first round after seeing him last year with his club play. His 2021 U18, his Hlinka, and his U18 this year all were underwhelming to say the least. It didn't take long for me to think that something was missing from his game after early season Champions League viewings. He was far from assertive, struggled with his puck handling, relied strictly on passing when his determination, skill and powerful frame landed him a ton of impressive offensive moments last season. He was completing a ton of passes at the J20 level, but so many were D to D that it made it almost meaningless to note. He was playing timid, and I couldn't understand why. Over the course of the season, I felt he got stronger and more confident at the SHL level when he returned there, pinning players to the boards and monitoring rush lanes quite well, but I still wanted to see more offense out of him. If he really falls hard in the draft, I think there's a somewhat safe floor there, and he wouldn't be the first point producing Swedish 16 year old to slow down and transform into a more defensive leaning player, but he's been a strange case to look at this year.
I started the year skeptical of Nathan Gaucher, but I see the appeal. He's big, fast in a straight line, underrated with making plays under pressure off the rush, and could easily be a player down an NHL lineup, but there isn't a ton of diversity to his game, his shot selection was poor in my tracked games, and quarterbacking rushes offensively was not his forte at all. He could be a solid defensive forward and if you want someone who makes a smash, he make a smash good.

Tier 4 - Impressive Auxilliary Pieces

All of these guys bring curious upside that could be leveraged greatly, but conservatively, some could be role players of some kind in the NHL while others may carry more risk and struggle to make an NHL impact.
Cancer diagnosis aside, I think people were a little too critical of Ivan Miroshnichenko's play early in the year. Yes, he wasn't quite the big, skilled, creative power winger we expected, but he was resilient with a great finishing release, efficient in limited offensive transition usage from a lack of separation quickness and a bit of an inability to read breakouts to make himself a target, but he still has offensive upside, and considering he's reportedly in remission, if he is a player drafted well past where I have him ranked, you can see where he's at in 5 years and hope he's back on track. There's no need to rush. Now, quality of medicine in sports and in general in Russia can be... questionable, but I imagine an NHL team drafting him will be keenly aware to keep an eye on his health and recovery.
Owen Pickering could easily wildly outperform his ranking here. His results in some areas were, well, not great. He's got an enormous, lanky frame with the skill you'd expect from someone 8 inches shorter, because he was much shorter until quite recently. Passing pucks at times were executed a bit poorly on breakouts but if he can generate a bit more power on his feet and bring a bit more deception to his skilled game, Pickering could blossom into a heck of a creative offensive defender.
Lian Bichsel is almost the BEEG version of Pickering. He's decently mobile, some games were significantly better than others, his skill level was on display more as the year went on and he gained a bit of confidence, but he's a player who wants to be big, punishing and intense with the lack of strength and small area power to really make much of an impact. I saw a few plays where his missed checks and pins led to errant sticks and frustration penalties which is never fun, but if he gets drafted in the first round, I can see why, even if I don't see massive upside for him.
My thoughts on Adam Sykora are well known by now and I'm a huge fan of his potential. Very young for the draft class, his production improved as the year went on, becoming the youngest goal scorer at the World Championships. Now, I don't think too much about players producing at international tournaments, but he didn't look out of place there whatsoever. He's aggressive, decently skilled and if his skating can improve with better lateral mobility and speed generation, I could see a ton of upside as a determined and energetic 200 foot winger in the NHL.
Owen Beck and David Goyette are players I'd be decently interested in drafting a bit higher than this. I love Beck's simple, but effective north-south approach to the game with a strong mind for playmaking and off-puck offensive positioning with strong offensive threat metrics and great possession data. He was one of my better players on paper this year at forward even if his offensive transition involvement was somewhat low. He made it work, he was efficient and drove great results at both ends. I wonder how his game projects without a real x-factor area of his game, but he could be an effective NHLer you may not notice a ton. He also wins a ton of faceoffs so he may very well just earn a job and reputation off of that if he carries that forward.
Goyette is a bit more skilled and flashy with much higher transition workloads, albeit with less efficiency. He's a smart playmaker with regards to his timing and vision, but I'd really love to see him be more assertive and pace-y at 5v5 pushing play into dangerous areas more often, especially on his own. Just 9% of Sudbury's shot attempts I tracked were coming from Goyette from anywhere on the ice. That's in the bottom five of all tracked forwards. With talented finishers on his wing, Goyette could be a good puck distributor with limited individual scoring potential, but he's a bit more of a project to me.
Speaking of projects, Sam Rinzel and Mattias Havelid. Havelid is a highly skilled and mobile defender with a great shot from the point, but evading pressure, close quarters defending and his offensive game beyond shots from the point are all big works in progress. I thought his U18 was great, and I think some are too pessimistic on him, but he's a player with good talent and clear flaws. Rinzel on the other hand is big, rangy, and creative which I love in combination. Some USHL games, he looked borderline dominant. In others, he was a problem. He needs to build on his lateral mobility to drive rushes and puck carriers towards the boards and could get turned around in high pace situations, but his creativity with the puck and edgework to create space and challenge opponents in the offensive zone is palpable. A nice raw defenseman you can let develop in college for a few years and hopefully get a good puck quarterback with offensive tools that can drive results in the NHL.
Jack Hughes, from here on referred to as Jack Twos to avoid confusion is a player I feel like people have totally forgotten about. He's got a lot of pace, deception and skill in his game, but I feel like he just hasn't quite put it all together in the NCAA yet. I loved him last year with his powerful skilled game and brought great energy every time I saw him. I don't see a ton of upside, but he reminds me a bit of how I feel about Jordan Gustafson, where there are interesting tools, but I just haven't seen that dominant offense out of him that I thought I see coming out of last season.
Ty Nelson might be the most frustrating player I watched this year. I love the shot from the point, he just uses it constantly. I love the mobility, deception and fluidity with his feet, but he never used it and led my dataset in incomplete offensive transitions, largely through his passing. He put in the work to close out defensive situations along the boards but struggled on the rush and in close quarters off the boards. I imagine he falls in the draft, but a complete reset and trying to get him to play a bit more assertively could pay dividends. I've seen some impressive play with the puck off Nelson's stick, but about 90% of the time, I easily see why many are skeptical.
I've been a big fan of Calle Odelius since the Hlinka and at times he flirted with a much higher rank on my board, but I still am skeptical of how his overall game looks when taken in as a whole. He's got very strong edges and very good skill to read and maneuver around pressure, and can quarterback play in the offensive zone quite well, but his defensive game is a big work in progress almost across the board, especially physically. I feel like teams with a few picks in this range will take a hard look at Odelius if he slips a bit. I've really liked the best moments of his season, and with the puck his talent level would put him higher on my list, it's just a matter of rounding everything out around him.
Denton Mateychuk's rank might surprise some, but I really have issues seeing how his game translates to the NHL without significant development improvements. He gets the puck in Moose Jaw's system a lot, and I love his small area passing game. He knows when and where to move the puck, even if it's simple little passes that keep play moving. I mean the guy had 123 pass attempts per 60 minutes which makes him the only realistic challenger to Anton Johannesson in my tracking history for passing pucks, and honestly I see similar echoes with these players. They're skilled, but I don't believe it's quite enough to see likely NHL impact. They're mobile, but not quite explosive enough to overcome their size limitations in my view. They touch the puck a ton, and at junior levels, make some impressive plays with the puck. Mateychuk gains a ton off of his confidence and challenging opponents with his intensity, but the actual talent profile I think is a bit of a step behind. If he doesn't anticipate and step into pass lanes on defensive breakouts, he's far less effective defensively. If his development goes well and the team that drafts him loves the idea of a rover on the back end, he could easily be drafted quite a bit higher and turn into something really interesting. I just think the bar to reach that level is very, very high.

Tier 3 - The Group of Uncertainty

It's a little outstanding to me how much this draft opens up outside of the top 5 or 6 picks. If Jagger Firkus goes top 10, I absolutely see why. If Matthew Savoie drops like a rock and goes a 18, I absolutely could see why. If Gleb Trikozov goes top 10, I would explode with glee, but I don't see it as likely for many teams. Frank Nazar? Hell 21st in North America denotes a late 1st or early 2nd, and outside of "smol" I don't really see how that checks out, but in this draft? Anything goes!
I've got Isaac Howard at 22 but I don't think anyone put up better offensive numbers in my tracking. The kid is just a dynamo of playmaking and scoring chances. His defensive game is a downside, but the offense makes up for it. He needs to refine his skating to be a bit more efficient and in control of things a bit more, but the tools are impossible to ignore.
I love Lane Hutson, there I said it. It took a while, but I love this guy. With improvements to his strength and ability to explode out of pivots and changing directions, he could remind me a ton of Samuel Girard with his creative and exciting play with the puck, He improved significantly as the year went on, and I'll be extremely curious to see what happens with him on draft day.
I have Seamus Casey ranked ahead of Hutson, and I think with time and patience, he could turn out to be a more reserved but more effective version of Hutson, if that makes sense? Casey has confidence and skill, with vision and creativity that parallels Hutson in the offensive zone. I believe his pass vision and deception on breakouts is a bit better, but if you get one, the other or both, I'm happy.
Marco Kasper is a good player and I probably have him a little low. I like him for his straight line game, overall intensity, and intelligence at both ends of the ice. He isn't too flashy too often, but once in a while you see some impressive ability to stop up and create space to make plays or use his release to take scoring chances. His results weren't great, but he had great diverse shot selection and was highly active in play for an SHLer.
If Cutter Gauthier goes top 10, that's a decision I personally wouldn't do, but I could maybe see why. He's big, rangy, and very skilled with a great finishing touch. He reminds me a little bit of Chaz Lucius last year where overall involvement was an issue, but you could see the potential in his game. He doesn't have the shot selection or ability to get to dangerous areas in different ways that Lucius had, but their feel around the ice is somewhat similar. If you want to put him back at centre, I guess go for it? I could see how that could work out with his skill level in open ice, but I get the feeling other, better NTDP options will be available later with more upside, even if there may be slightly more risk.
Jiri Kulich had a huge U18, but I think the hype train got a little out of control there for a little while. I love his positional thinking and finishing ability, but he's going to need to get stronger to play his brand, and develop better pass vision to couple with his determination under pressure. Don't get me wrong, I love Jiri Kulich, and if he goes in the top-15 I'll be happy for him and curious to see how it works out, but I don't think his goal-per-game pace at the U18 is indicative of an incredible NHL goal scorer's future here. Maybe, but I find it somewhat unlikely.
I've flipped the pancake many many times figuring out what I think of Pavel Mintyukov and Kevin Korchinski. I love their confidence and skill with the puck. Mintyukov has some really wonderful toe drags off the blueline and Korchinski has some great rushes up the ice to his name with impressive offensive zone playmaking, but... I don't know. Korchinski's defensive game was an issue closing gaps and applying pressure, and Mintyukov was highly inactive and passive defensively, but did show physical imposition that I noted at other times. Could they go a lot higher, sure and they do have archetypes that exist in the NHL, I just wonder how their pros and cons interact.
I still love Vladimir Grudinin. He brings better edges and agility in all four directions than guys like Casey and Hutson. Not playing on the power play as much as Artyom Duda did as much to devalue him as it did to overvalue Duda in my view. There's so much potential with Grudinin in my view as one of the more dynamic skilled defensemen you could draft this year, and unlike Danila Yurov, tangibly moved results in the right direction in KHL competition off the backend all while standing just 5'10".
Kemell and Lekkerimaki are some of the more interesting finishers available that struggle to get chances from areas where pucks generally go in the net. The talent is there, it may just take time to project that offensive output to higher levels.
Matthew Savoie is at the top of this list and I really struggled with where to land him, be it in here or a tier higher. I think there's risk with his high pace and agile approach not projecting to higher levels due to lack of separation speed, but his defensive game is underrated, and the upside is clearly the highest of this entire group. You don't want to undershoot on your skilled offensive players with a top-10 pick, but if other teams are a bit spooked, which from what I've heard, some seem to be, Savoie could be a "we didn't expect him to fall this far" candidate for a smart team in the middle of the first round.

Tier 2 - Big Upside, Big Questions

This one is simple. Juraj Slafkovsky is a rock solid four for me with his NHL certainty, power, and strength. Elite NHL producers at his size are rare because high end elite skill and finishing talent are difficult for players that size, but I can't say it's impossible. He's got a good ability to get off the boards and thread passes around the ice, and I think there's a ton to like. He's almost certainly gone by 4 and I can easily see why, even if I value a name like Brad Lambert a bit more for his upside.
Do you like you're defensemen confident with the puck? Simon Nemec is your guy. Do you like you're defensemen a little more reserved, patient and more physical? David Jiricek is your man. Honestly, flip a coin between these two for me. Nemec has a clear pathway to be something different and in my view better than what he is. Jiricek is a bit of a question mark regarding the effects of his knee injury right when I felt he was playing his best hockey, but my limited knowledge of sports medicine leads me to believe that you can recover from knee injuries with time and get back to full speed, and I'd expect the same of Jiricek. Similar to Bichsel, he was trying quite a bit defensively without a ton of success, but strength improvements over time will help. The offensive tools are there too, and I can't wait to see where he goes and where he ends up in a few years.

Tier 1 - I Still Believe in Brad, Dangit... And Shane Wright and Logan Cooley...

The flag is in the ground here. Brad Lambert isn't my #2 guy anymore, but I'm still a huge fan of the potential of this guy. His transition game in my Jyvaskyla sample was better than anyone I've tracked in those metrics, let alone at the men's professional level. With Lahti, he could have been anyone else, looking far more pedestrian with, in my opinion, a supporting cast that was far too slow, structured and inefficient to help him snap out of his production slump. He got his chances, literally nobody else in my Pelicans sample got any kind of dangerous chances. He wasn't super involved in creating shot attempts because his teams kept peppering the net with poor shots from distance that Lambert just can't be participating in. There are decisionmaking concerns, yes. There are issues with overhandling, but I'd rather a player trying to do too much because of their talent and working backwards to find a balance, rather than hoping the talent profile rises through the ranks as the player ups their responsibility.
In my heart of hearts, Cooley could very easily be the #1 player here. He gets me more excited to watch him than Shane Wright. He's more deceptive, creative and has quicker skill that gives him a ton of options offensively. His defensive game doesn't have the same upside, but his talent profile and more experience at college should help him refine his 200-foot game. He certainly doesn't lack pace or skating ability. If the teams at the top let him slip, chasing bigger, stronger players, a team like Seattle could land him and a 1/2 punch of Beniers and Cooley is, well, awesome in my mind. He's the only player I'd seriously consider over Wright if I were king of the world, but the somewhat blank slate you could work on around Shane Wright's excellent mind of the game is a little more enticing.
On that note, Shane Wright in my view is going to make his money by being more intelligent and reading the ice better than his opponents. He's a great tactician, able to spot pass seams offensively and use a great sense of timing to move pucks efficiently. Away from the puck, he's a good positional player, but the intensity level especially under pressure is a question mark that exposed him somewhat often. He's a great shooter that didn't really utilize it from distance much, but combining that with what he did display could be a ton of fun. Smart positional offense, finding pockets of space to fetch pucks, then finding pockets of space to finish in or pass pucks to. I think some are being too harsh on Wright, but some are far too optimistic. He'll likely fall somewhere in the middle and with the right linemates with a bit more raw pace and quickness, he could glue together a line very well as he is.

And so we've reached the conclusion of my pre-draft coverage here at Scouching for 2022. Thank you so much for all of your time this year. It's an interesting crop of players that I'll be very interested to reflect on in a few years. There's some risk, but upside to be had. There are lots of directions a team could go, but there's good potential with many in this group.

If you'd like a playlist of all of my Scouching Reports over the years, click here.

Be sure to not miss the Scouching Draft-a-Thon on July 8, 2022, starting a half hour before Round 2 begins at a time yet to be confirmed. Set your reminders here!

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