Scouching's Post-NHL Draft Lottery Rankings

Hi everyone and a very happy Pride Month to you all! If you're new here, welcome! If you aren't, welcome back! I've gotten my first COVID vaccine dose, and I highly recommend you all do the same if you haven't already. I hope you all enjoyed the NHL Draft Lottery that went basically how the odds were laid out. Just a quick note that the mock draft is coming soon. This is not that. This is simply my view of the rough groupings of players and the order of preference within those groups where I'd use an NHL Draft Pick. I've gone through my 536 tracked performances across 130 players, and my 133 gigabytes of video clips I've pulled since October and until the draft, I believe the final rankings that will be accompanied by a video next month will look largely the same.

My read on this year's class is pretty straightforward. There is a strong top two tiers of potentially very useful core impact players, but likely not any world-ending players without improvements in certain areas of the game. As the teens become the twenties, I believe there are still quality high upside swings and solid complimentary options, but once the first round begins to wind down, who frickin' knows. It's going to be a horror show and I can't wait. Last year my list encompassed about 70 names that I was legitimately excited about, and while that number is down closer to 60 this year, there are still some fascinating players in the nooks and crannies of global hockey that I'm curious to keep an eye on in the next few years.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a  brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team. ​

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above. I would like to thank my Patreon and YouTube Members for the financial support of the project. It gives me life, and I'm thankful every day.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

---

The Watchlist

• Welcome to The Watchlist, which are players with data and traits that have caught my eye that may be worth keeping track of, whether they're drafted or not.
• Justin Ertel is a big, strong playmaking winger who played in Junior A out in the Maritimes this year, which is hilarious to watch, but he still deserves a spot here. His size, skill and playmaking patience are an interesting combination that could come out should his power and explosiveness improve on his feet during his time at Cornell.
• Tyson Galloway is a giant who logged a ton of minutes with the Calgary Hitmen this year and while he's a guy who frustrated me when the time came to make plays with the puck, he's a lovely skater with range, fluidity and skill that leads to great defensive results and potential for improvements with the puck as he gets more experience and confidence.
• After doing some research, I read an interview in Sports Illustrated with Owen Bartoszkiewicz, who played in net for an NAHL expansion team, and he's a story I can absolutely get behind. Joining the Wichita Falls Warriors, he faced plenty of rubber and put up solid numbers saving shots in any situation as well as dangerous 5v5 opportunities thanks to InStat data. He has a somewhat strong track record of results, solid size, and seems to be flying under the radar.
• Simon Motew was a curious case last year for the Kitchener Rangers with great Pick224 data in limited playing time, but he absolutely obliterated the USPHL this year on the backend. His skill and shot are a great combination, and post-pandemic, a return to Kitchener should do him well. I don't think the production indicates a potential steal in the draft, but he's been a cheat code this season and worth keeping an eye on.
• Evan Werner might be the most fun player I've watched this year that is still the biggest longshot of those fun players I've liked. He's very small, but very skilled with a laser beam of a shot that, while I find it tough to project him as an NHL player, a year in the USHL before college, and patience to let him continue working on getting stronger and even quicker could do great things for him.
• Malinen, Angesved, and Marha, are all guys that I've liked for their skating, and that's about it. Sometimes that's all you need to make a late round bet, even if they have major issues in other areas of the game.
• Iivari Rasanen caught my eye in Pick224 data and his defense-first approach driven by strong skating, aggressive defense, and solid evasive skill to make strong first passes in lead me to believe that he should be a major piece of an underrated Quinnipiac team. He had a strong freshman season and whether or not he's drafted, I'm curious to see where his game goes, as I find that his great results weren't a matter of luck.
• Bogdans Hodass took Gustavs Ozolins' spot on this list after the U18 tournament. I hadn't seen him play prior, but I came away impressed with his rangy mobility, flashes of skill under pressure and a great shot from the point. Again, this is the watchlist. He's a name I'm curious about, but I went in really thinking Ozolins would be their big time player, but Hodass to me showed more projectable skills.

Tier 7 - The Cupcake Zone

• Evan Nause has some of the worst tracked data of any defenseman I've tracked this year, but I could easily see why he could be picked in the first two rounds. His skill under pressure and evasion ability to find new lanes and escape the defensive end are interesting and better than many, but the rest of the equation to me is largely negative. He's a player I think will be drafted well before I'm ready to pull the trigger, but with patience, there could be an interesting problem-solving defensive defender there.
• Dario Sidler looked pretty wonderful at the U18 for Switzerland, and while I'm almost confident he won't see NHL ice, I can't not put the idea out there that the quick, skilled, rambunctious little defender from Z U G  may juuuuuuust get there some day. He's extremely ineffective on defensive rushes, and while he's amicable with the way he hurls himself at players along the boards, he's a player who has played both sides on defense as well as a game as a winger in my tracking. He had a gorgeous primary assist from the boards in his first National League game, and his puck skill, agility, quickness, and fun factor are tremendous. He didn't look out of place in this cohort, and didn't get completely filled in against grown men in Switzerland, so I hope his lack of size only holds him back temporarily, because a 5'7" defender pulling and hurling pucks around an NHL ice surface would certainly be an experience.
• Conner Roulette is one that I just can't not rank, but I question his upside. He's got skill, he escapes pressure in ways that dumbfound me, but he gets his chances. His U18 was fine, but the games I've tracked show an interesting perimeter playmaker who takes the foot off the gas defensively a bit more than I'd like. His creativity and skill are pretty neat and might be worth a bet if he's available after the first few rounds.
• Kalle Vaisanen didn't have a great U18 in terms of role or impact, but boy... This is an interesting player with an archetype unlike most in the draft. He's huge, but skilled and somewhat mobile, but his bread and butter is punishment. He will get you. He drives very good results in my tracking, even if his passing involvement and non-offensive zone involvement are somewhat limited. He still go out on ice and crush, and in a way that I think could be beneficial to an NHL program. My gut tells me the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets will do their homework on this dude.
• Arcuri and Voit have had my eye all year, but they've also been good in my limited eyeballs on the PBHH tournament so they're on here.
• Janis Moser in the National League this year has been a pleasant surprise, so shouts out to Thibaud Chatel for mentioning him on the Chasing High Danger Podcast. He's got solid reach, mobility, but above all, he's safe in the best way. His route selection and skill to create easier passing lanes result in great on-ice impacts driven through strong defense and flashes of aggression in the offensive zone to attack the middle. He's a D+3, but he plays like he earned a captaincy, and I could see some kind of NHL defender there in the somewhat near future, which automatically makes him valuable to a certain extent.
• Yeah, Gerasimyuk was bad for 5 minutes at the U18, but I've seen him plenty behind a not-good Variyagi team in the MHL facing shot after shot, and keeping his team in continuously. European goalies who are not small, and get good practice facing pucks in strong systems with years of good results check a lot of boxes for me. As a late round swing, you could probably do much worse and buy low on the guy who struggled briefly and landed on the bench.

Tier 6 - Curious Cases and Such

• Danila Klimovich's skill and shot combo are real high level and since the U18s, he has shot up boards. I honestly can't say he doesn't deserve to be ranked, and while I  think a top two round ranking is a bit much considering the limitations of his game elsewhere, he should get picked, probably will get picked, and with time, could become a useful sniper down the road.
• People ask me about Kisakov all the time, and I know why. He's scoring a lot in the MHL, and I've tracked quite a few games, but I still don't know what to think. He's got some skill, he isn't slow, he gets to the front of the net, but I'm not sure there's enough outside of him being a pace-pusher in a league with no pace. He's inconsistent earning offensive transitions with control, shows mixed results defensively, but overall he drives solid results. He's a weird one. I can see why he'd be a first round pick to some teams, but my gut tells me he's a hard one to project.
• Yeah, the Zach's are in here. I have much more time for Zach Dean than Zach Bolduc, to be honest, but I think Dean's game is hard to project to the NHL. He's skilled, agile, creative and slippery, but in three of four games I've tracked, he has struggled to consistently drive play, struggled to escape pressure, struggled to consistently get pucks to linemates, and as an NHL player, it's possible to see it work out, but I'm more favorable to him as a 2nd or 3rd round skilled winger to bet on.
• On Zach Bolduc, he's only a bit behind Dean, but I just don't know. If Bolduc is your team's first round pick, I really hope his results take a turn in the next couple of years. He shoots from low danger constantly, he doesn't get pucks inside much at all, he's efficient in offensive transitions and mobile on his feet, but his fundamental ability to hit targets can be questionable, he doesn't complete many of his dangerous pass rates, and he is one of the most passive and ineffective defensive rush defenders I've tracked. He has positive traits, but as a whole, he's a tough one for me to get behind.
• Samu Salminen scores a ton, scored a ton at the U18, but I'm not sure the offense follows him to the NHL. His body weight gives him speed generation with his turns, but his pace, skill, and straight line speed, are questionable. His sense of awareness and ability to make simple, no-nonsense plays that put points on the board is what drives his production, but I'm not surprised there's a bit of a mismatch between his placement on rankings and his production/size profile.
• Lorenzo Canonica, Robert Orr, and Jackson Blake are small, rambunctious players who all come with skill, creativity, and offensive potential. Canonica is one of the most heavily involved defensive forwards I've tracked, and is often effective and causing issues for opponents. All these players have the benefit of youth as well, and with patience, they could all turn into interesting projects.
• The other young player, Oliver Kapanen, is a player more driven by intelligence and efficiency. I wasn't surprised to see a bit of an exposure to his lack of pace and dynamic ability in the U18 tournament, horrific incident aside. He's crafty and smart, drives good results getting into the right place at the right time, but if you're expecting Kasperi Kapanen 2.0, he is not that.
• I just want to extend a note to Cole Jordan as well. He's a quick, rangy defender with solid defensive traits, and the potential to be a remarkable offensive rush quarterback, but you just don't see it very often. Nobody makes more pass attempts than him, but 81 players complete more passes than him on average. He defaults to dumps and weak passes to nobody far more often than he should, but taking things into his own hands and driving an offensive rush should be doable with his strength and mobility.

Tier 5 - The  T a k e  Zone

• ​Here's where things get a bit spicy. These are the names that are a combination of somewhat limited ceilings but solid floors of talent in names like Harrison, Kirsanov, Othmann, and Chayka, and high risk/high reward options that scream fun factor like Kuzmin, Almquist, Gustafsson, Behrens, Tschigerl, Tichacek and Duke.
• I love watching Dylan Duke. He's aggressive, quick, gets to the net and drives results. He's an energy guy, but he produces. I think a team willing to look past his frame will be rewarded with a hard working player who can get the job done in crunch time through both net front shot generation and underrated playmaking. He's part of the 30+ club in offensive threat (dangerous shooting combined with dangerous passing), and sits fourth in that metric, with the 3rd highest rate of dangerous shots for.
• On the other hand, I feel as though Dylan Duke outshines Sasha Pastujov on a shift-by-shift basis. Pastujov is slow, inactive defensively, but brings excellent practical skill under pressure and crafty, slippery playmaking at his own pace. I question the NHL upside, but he's young, has time to develop, and if his skating and pace grow, he could be a nice pickup late. At the same time, he's taking 70% of his shots from low danger, so that's not ideal, and he only completes 42% of those dangerous pass attempts. Duke on the other hand takes 73% of his shot attempts from dangerous areas and completed 63% of his dangerous pass attempts.
• Speaking of the NTDP, Sean Behrens is perplexing. I think there's upside there, but his quickness and agility without the puck is an issue, as he can get left behind on defensive cycles and is among the worst suppressors of dangerous shot attempts that I've tracked, leading to a 41% DSAT%. His skill and offensive creation, as well as his positional neutral zone defense are interesting, but he's a small defender who might struggle to project.
• Lukas Gustafsson is a fascinating one. I see a ton of potential with him. Yes, he's a prep kid who had limited USHL exposure, but relative to other viewings of Steel defenders, Gustafsson should've been a mainstay on that team. His lateral mobility to cover ice is excellent. His skill level is very high and he uses it to create space and deceive opponents extremely well. He's aggressive with his offense, sometimes to his detriment, but I feel like letting him make mistakes and learn, while letting him try to refine the offensive side of the game could be greatly rewarding. He's apparently returning to be a top defender for the Steel next year, and I expect if he's not drafted his year, that eyeballs will be on him next year. I just really, really like this guy's game and as a late round swing, you could do much worse.
• Olen Zellweger and Aleksi Heimosalmi have shot up my list, especially after the U18. Zellweger really only shows weaknesses with generating quick speed in pressure situations, and beginning offensive rushes, but the games I've tracked have been extremely promising with one game being extremely bonkers. Heimosalmi's skill and skating combination, as well as his sense for gap management and stick checking are impressive. Both players will need to be stronger and even better on their feet, but they're promising undersized defenders.
• Speaking of undersized, Dmitri Kuzmin? Tons of fun, slick skill, great at the U18. No surprise to me. Jiri Tichacek? Not so great, but not bad at the U18, and also tons of fun that I believe could be a solid defender with time and patience. Marcus Almquist is a player who has so much talent, but not much of a feel for the game in a unit. He's skilled, quick, covers a tremendous amount of ice, and just a ton of fun to watch regardless of when he's playing. He's a guy who isn't doing a whole lot except zipping around open ice, but when he gets the puck, he has some high skill, high fun moments that make him a very interesting pickup.
• I bumped Jake Martin down a bit after going through my tape, and I certainly think you could land him as a solid defensive option much later than the 2nd round. He's got a ways to go to improve, but he's been flying under the radar for the NTDP this season and has been impressive in my work.
• Ryder Korczak... I don't know. I've seen very little improvement over last year, and if anything there has been regression. He's a great creator of shot assists, and rock solid offensive transition player, but that's where things end. Those shot assists aren't going to the middle of the ice, and that transition data is far less favorable on the other side of the puck. Moose Jaw doesn't produce dangerous chances with him on the ice, and he's taking 80% of his attempts from low danger in my work. It's a tough call to me. I think there's potential with his quickness and flashes of skill, but I just don't know what's going to happen with him on draft day.
• Brent Johnson and Jack Peart are big names I've really enjoyed. Peart is a bit more involved in offensive rushes, but far less effective, while Johnson is more involved defensively, more aggressive with his offensive threat, and more efficient defensively. Peart's deception and vision with the puck through the NZ is really intriguing and if his ability to manage gaps and cleanly execute on his passes to mantain control on more offensive transitions will be good next steps for him. They're both fascinating players to watch, and I'm excited to see where they go next month. 
• On the right day, William Stromgren would be a tier higher. I've seen him play on the right day before, but I also have seen him largely fade into the background, allowing linemates to take up too much responsibility while he awaits the game to come to him. He's a wonderful package of fluid skating, evasive skill, offensive aggression and creativity, and I will bet on what players show me at their best, so if Stromgren's name comes up as high as 25 or so, you have my interest. He's a curious one, and I am a fan, but inconsistencies are there.

Tier 4 - A Bunch of Hockey Players

• I got on the Ayrton Martino train, but have slowly come back to Earth. I believe he's a first round talent offensively, and there's a report coming soon on him, but I think there's a ton of potential with his creativity, skill, and effective offensive game per puck touch.
• Sebastian Cossa? I dunno, he's huge, has stopped pucks for years, outperformed his xGA according to InStat, and seems to be excellent tracking pucks with lateral mobility staying square to pucks and locked into his technique. My gut tells me he's legit, but I'd let my goalie people help me take the chance on him.
• Scott Morrow is one of the highest ceiling defenders in this draft in my opinion. He's skilled, rangy, daring with the puck and while he was punching below his weight class with Shattuck St. Mary's, his USHL time was far better than his 0 points would indicate.
• I tried to hold back on Matthew Coronato for a while, but he just kept getting better and better every time I saw him. He played every forward position, and while he was playing with overagers and I think his production is a bit inflated, he's extremely smart, practical, has a great feel for the game, and just keeps putting up results in a variety of areas. 20% of his team's shot attempts with him on the ice are Coronato from danger, good for 6th in my tracking. 2nd in OCZT%, 3rd in COZT/60, top 20 in dangerous shot attempts/60 and involvement at both bluelines going either direction. He's all over the ice driving solid results, especially in the offensive direction, and with improvements to his speed, and comfort with that higher pace, he could be a heck of an all-around forward.
• There's a report coming on Ville Koivunen coming, but rest assured, I think he's very good. One of the smartest and most selfless players that you'll rarely notice unless you're really paying attention, but he's just effective and makes everyone's life a little easier. He exudes team play, got better as the year went on and I'm all about players like that.
• I've gone back and watched the Lambos tape I pulled and definitely see more there than I was giving him credit for, so Carson, I apologize. Is he a top pick as he was early in the year? Probably not. Is he a 2nd round pick? Definitely not. He's mobile laterally unlike many in the draft, involved in play constantly, and from a defense-first perspective that rewards him with some production, there's a lot to like. One of the most active defenders in transitions going both ways, he oddly shows up in the data like a Jack Peart-brand of impact player, but just... more good. More active offensively, more active defensively, equally active with his passing, but more offensive threat. He enters the OZ with control 19% of the time which is among the worst I've tracked, but if your team really loves the idea of a dump and chase offense, his defensive ability and skill might be a worthwhile bet in the first round.
• Stanislav Svozil is a player I'd love to hop in a time machine and see play in 2026. I don't know what he's going to be, but there are a lot of interesting tools that seem to have been overlooked due to lacklustre international performances. Svozil is mobile, refined on defensive rushes with his gap control and physical imposition, and while his OCZT% was poor, similar to Lambos, much of that comes from dumping pucks into the offensive zone, and iffy pass execution on stretch passes. If he can settle down a bit on the ice, get more confident at high levels of play, and work on his skill and agility at low pace, he could be a truly impressive dynamic defender at both ends. He might be a player available on Day 2, and could be a curious project pickup for a rebuilding team. 

Tier 3 - The Consolation Prizes

• So you missed the playoffs and didn't win the lottery and you aren't the Arizona Coyotes. That's really too bad, but any one of these players are great adds. They aren't that far behind the group ahead of them, but it's still a step back to me.
• I absolutely adore watching Logan Stankoven. His WHL data I tracked was staggeringly good in the offensive direction, and at times even defensively. He's an exceptionally hard worker who can chain together tremendous offensive shifts and absolutely smash his enemies into the ground. I mean, the guy is #1 in offensive threat, completing dangerous passes, creating or taking shot attempts for his team, #2 in DSAT%, DSAT/60, and top 10 in the percentage of his team's shot attempts that are taken by Stankoven from danger, controlling offensive transitions, and the percentage of his passes that are dangerous. He's one of the rare players that you know exactly what you're getting every time he steps on the ice, and he will absolutely be a player that makes bigger players think twice about underrating his tenacity, strength and work rate. I could write all day about him and still have more to say, and I think he absolutely belongs as high on my list as he is here.
• McTavish will likely be getting a report, but I don't think there's a player that has surprised me relative to last year, and improved as much as he has while in Switzerland this year. Last year, he was largely a shoot-first player, finding open space and ripping pucks into nets without tremendous pace or skating skill, but this year, he's mobile, rambunctious, effective at both ends, and is trying to make plays as much as he's trying to score pucks in a men's pro league. I think the hype train is a little out of control after an impressive U18, but if he's a guy your team reaches a little on in the back half of the Top 10, it might not be the call I make, but it isn't a bad call whatsoever. He can play down the middle, he can play the wing, he can score, he can make a play off the boards, and he's more than capable of getting the puck back if your team doesn't have it. Can't ask for much more in a player, even if there isn't a ton that's necessarily "elite".
• Yeah, Simon Robertsson wasn't great often for Sweden at the U18s, but nobody was on that team. They looked slow, disjointed, passive, and conservative offensively. I still believe in what I've seen of Robertsson in Sweden with the skill, intelligence, and flashes of speed and shooting talent that should make him a great pickup. If he's a contending team's pick late in the 1st round, I am a fan of that team.
• The Church of Fyodor has been in my life for almost the entire season, and I'm happy to be a ranking member. So smart, so effective, so creative, so much fun to watch in isolation, and a lot of that was on display in Texas. Joining SKA St. Petersburg is a big step for him, and a welcome one because watching Lada Togliatti, uh, sucked.​ 

Tier 2 - Still Tier 1B

• ​ok here's where we get into the steamy takes.
• Put these guys in a blender and I'd be happy with basically any order. So much is going to come down to team ethos and fit within their system, as well as managing expectations. Could you run a line through Dylan Guenther? Probably not, but as a complimentary scorer in a top six that can put points on the board? Yep. Could you run a line through Kent Johnson? Probably not, but if you can get him the puck in the neutral zone with speedy, aggressive forwards who can find space in the offensive zone, Johnson could be a monster playmaker with a side of solid goal scoring. Those two are interesting options that I could easily see drafted much higher, but I have my concerns with both.
• Yes, I'm still on the Aatu Raty train. Scott Wheeler's excellent profile of him from this week illuminated many things that I had caught onto with regards to his confidence, comfort level, and uncertainty with himself that were very clear to me through his play on the ice. He's a goal scorer who struggles to score goals on paper, but there is so much more to Raty than that. He's a mobile and skilled centre with a solid frame and tons of potential. He was absolutely dominant at the U20 level, and looked much improved post-World Juniors snub. He wasn't getting a ton of help from his linemates, and still managed to get shot attempts off from dangerous areas at a very high rate for a pro player. The signs are there for hope, but I can't ignore the risk if he never figures it out. Still, with his profile, I can't see a world where he isn't some kind of contributor with the fundamentals he possesses.
• Brandt Clarke is another one of those time machine players. He consistently struggles to maintain control transitioning pucks offensively, but his abilities in the offensive zone cannot be denied. His ability to shake defenders, step into the offensive zone for better looks, and sustain pressure is remarkable. His fluidity on his feet allows him to cover ice,  block lanes, and challenge opponents effectively. He's much less effective shutting down defensive entries, but he's no slouch in that area. I could see him going much higher, but I've got questions that haven't really been answered, even after his excellent U18 tournament.
• So, Owen Power was unanimous at #1 on Bob McKenzie's board, and I'm almost certain he'll be gone before 7, but I cannot for the life of me set aside the issues I have seen that plague Power's game at times, and hope that if he's the first name off the board, NHL teams will realistically view him through the lens of both strengths and weaknesses, and put too much on his plate too fast. Yes, he's at the World Championships and doing relatively well, but Power is a player where public reports aren't exactly glowing about what makes him a potential special NHL player, yet still put him at #1 on the hopes of him developing into something he isn't really at the moment. When he gets a head of steam going through the NZ, and when he gets set up in the offensive zone with control of the puck, he can be a monster. Defensively though, he's passive on rushes, but efficient when involved, pucks bleed through him in the defensive zone leading to poor DSATA rates, he invites pressure to himself while surveying the ice, and most concerning of all, his stability and comfort on defensive zone retrievals is at times extremely concerning. I'm sure there's an effective NHL defender there with some power play upside, but he has spooked me for two years now, and in my work, my philosophy, and my gut, I can't make the case for him as the #1 player available.

Tier 1 - The Unchanged.

• We've arrived at the top. Neat! A lot of folks might disagree with me on this, and that's cool, and I mean no disrespect to the players ranked behind this tier that are often ranked as the draft's best, but I believe framing the value of players in the draft properly is vital to finding the best possible selection for your team, and these players either have set themselves apart as impact players, or very easily could with some time to develop.
• Luke Hughes is nearly a 2022 eligible defender, and the only player outside of Dylan Guenther born in the last six months of draft eligibility in the top two groups. He's skilled, aggressive, ruthless with his offensive approach to a rush, and while there are holes in his game, and I've been alerted to off-ice concerns that have him down on some NHL lists, those holes can be patched with his natural skating talent and skill, and people can mature. The NHL team that picks him will need to be well aware of all the factors at play, and manage them. With patience and care, Hughes could turn into a dynamic offensive defenseman who can quarterback a rush. Why is he a tier above Power? The two are a whole year apart, and after seeing Hughes this year, and Power last year, I'd rather draft Hughes and see where he's at in a year. Yes, Power is playing college hockey, but Hughes is more active in play going both directions, significantly more threatening offensively at 5v5 off his own stick, and I believe has better mobility on his feet in four directions. It's very close, but this is where I lean, personally.
• Fabian Lysell at 4? Heck yeah. Yes, his consistent creation ability at 5v5 in the U18 tournament can be questioned, sure. That team wasn't great on the whole and I felt Lysell was one of a small number that legitimately showed up ready to play every game. Teams and scouts might be unsettled with his orchestrated departure from Frolunda. Whatever. The point is, I've seen Lysell play in the J20, SHL, and international level, and if we're in the game of projecting great talent into the future, Lysell is one of the most high octane, high intensity, eff you kind of hockey players you're going to find. His pace and speed are almost too high for his brain to keep up. His quick strike offense in the SHL was there. He was trying to make plays, he was attacking the net, he has skill, he has quickness, he works his rear end off without the puck. I could go on. There's tremendous potential and I can't shake it. He could be as good as he wants to be if he puts in the work, and the right coaches and team systems can help him along. I think he's misunderstood and rightfully deserves a spot in the top group in this year's draft.
• If you nail a pick on a goalie and land a franchise piece, job security significantly improves until they leave or retire. Jesper Wallstedt is an 18 year old goaltender who played in 22 of his SHL pro team's 52 games, with a high workload stopping dangerous attempts, and finished with a .908 save percentage. Here are all the other goalies that have ever done that any time in the recent past: 
• William Eklund is just sick. Buzzsaw player who can cover a ton of ice without the puck, control transitions extremely well with it, drive offense through his playmaking and the odd dangerous attack here and there, and while his second half trailed his first, he could be an excellent scoring piece to add to a team's top six assuming he isn't relied upon to carry a line. Tons of fun to watch, and tons of potential once he gets stronger.
• Yep, Matthew Beniers is locked in at #1 to me. I adore watching him play. He's exactly the kind of centre I'd build a line around. Mobile, skilled, high work rate at both ends, selfless with the puck, uses wingers to his advantage, supports his defenders, and while he underperforms at getting shot attempts from inside the dangerous areas (just 30%), he has the potential to be significantly better here, and that was an issue that plagued Michigan almost ubiquitously. He's a glue player, and any NHL team is greatly benefitted from strong glue players. The Buffalo Sabres have a goal scoring weapon in Jeff Skinner for example, and Matty Beniers could be a great piece to at least try to get pucks onto his stick so he can explode them into a net somewhere. Prefer Victor Olofsson? Same goes for him too. Need a guy to support that defense group? Beniers can do that. Is he NHL-ready? I'd certainly consider it, but won't guarantee it. Is he the most likely to be the highest overall impact player in the draft? I believe so.

---

That's it! Thanks so much for reading. As always thank you so much for all your support, no matter how you do it. Please consider subscribing to any and all platforms where I'm available for more great content. There's a mock draft coming soon, and there's always more videos on the way, but we're getting down to crunch time. Like I said, this draft is likely to be a horror show, but I'm so, so excited to see what happens. I'm ready for the spiciest hockey burrito I've ever eaten, and I hope you all feel the same by the time July 23.

Also, just to reiterate, it'd be great if we all got vaccinated and followed the public health guidelines so we can get through the final stages of this complete nightmare as quickly and effectively as possible. If anything, do it for the heroes who were subjected to the Toronto Maple Leafs effort that will go into the hockey history books on May 31, 2021. They've been through enough, so the least you could do is get jabbed. There's nothing to worry about, the process is efficient, and it goes a long way to helping your community and local businesses get back on track.

Thanks again, and see you soon for more stuff.