Scouching's Preliminary 2020 NHL Draft Rankings

Ah yes, it's that time again. NHL Draft Rankings... Every year, I say I dislike rankings, yet every year, here I am. This year I have said that there will be no rankings until after the World Junior Championships in January, but considering just how much data I have access to, and how many players and games I've tracked, I feel relatively comfortable publicizing my preliminary Top 5 tiers before publishing a more complete version next year. On the whole, the preseason hype of this crop seems to be a bit of a mixed bag in my opinion. A number of talents are emerging worldwide, however, and I do believe this will still be a strong group of players with solid depth in the late 1st through 3rd rounds, but from my vantage point, the talent dropoff after the first two tiers could be relatively steep when all is said and done. At the same time, the weekly 20+ NHLeS report I release on Twitter is still much longer than last year's so I may be biased against myself, which is a little unsettling.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including includes NHLeS and INV%, values as of November 24, 2019, with P1/60 and Cat% data accurate to November 19, 2019 and is derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Give him a follow, guy could be going places. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

"Will, please stop yammering and show me the rankings."
- All of you

Alright without further delay, here are my 5 tiers of 2020 NHL Draft prospects.

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Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

• I've said for a while that I personally lean 60/40 in favor of Lafrenière, but it is not a difficult conversation to bet on Quinton Byfield's upside long term. 
• Lafrenière is a truly gifted hockey player who just seems to get it. Tremendously smart all around, great skill, great scoring instincts and pushes play at both ends extremely well. His skating is awkward, but not slow, and he can control the flow of the game at his pace. At the NHL, it remains to be seen how that translates, but his overall talent and ability to find the scoresheet is unequivocally remarkable.
• On the other hand, Quinton Byfield is a player who could turn into an Evgeni Malkin-type big centre with tremendous skating ability and skill. He's a lethal scorer and a bit more of an offensively-focused game, but to me, he has tremendous upside. Considering his 11 month age advantage over Lafrenière, it is a perfectly legitimate discussion to have if you're picking 1st overall, and neither of these players should be available at 3rd overall.
• I mean it. I almost pulled the "I'm going to rank both of these guys at #1 lol" trick, but I pulled myself together and went with my gut. My gut is weak, but my gut was final. I take Lafrenière and his wonderful overall no-BS approach to the game, but a potentially not-fun centre that could QB a line for a decade or more is pretty enticing.
  

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Tier 2 - The Very Good Ones

• I'm not buying into those who are down on Lucas Raymond. I'm just not. He's being deployed strangely in Sweden, but what I've seen is impressive. My tracked data has been highly favourable towards him (71% SAT% ain't bad, for example), but he does show visible signs of potential discomfort with full time SHL play. He's an exceptionally skilled player under pressure, creative in transition and in the offensive zone, and can be a very dangerous offensive quarterback. His upside is tremendous, but he has been a hard player to get a read on early.
• Yes, Marco Rossi is a Top-5 player to me. His data lines up with Lafrenière in a few ways, his tracked data is outstanding, and he consistently drives play unbelievably well. He's a player who when I've tracked him, nearly every shift he's doing things that push play his way at both ends. I tracked a game where his team clawed back for a 5-4 win where he had 5 assists, and could have easily scored at least two more points had things been slightly different. He's skilled, agile, plays hard, has swagger, and if he can rein in the legitimately troublesome moments he's had this year, he could be a tremendous player down the line.
• Yes, Tim Stützle is also a Top-5 player to me. His hands are remarkable, his perimeter play with his ability to cut into dangerous areas and carve opponents is a ton of fun to watch. He's no slouch in his own end, but he's going to make his money by scoring points. His shot is electric, and his passing against men is often dangerous. I'm a huge fan, especially with how much he's improved over the last calendar season.
• Anton Lundell might not have a massive ceiling, but he could be a fantastic two-way centre who may not get fans out of their seats often, but he could be a person hockey nerds and coaches alike love. He pushes possession extremely well and should be a valuable NHLer for years, if not on boxes of cereal across the league.
• Drysdale is the best available defender in this draft, hands down and to me it isn't close. He does things Bowen Byram didn't that I think makes him a more projectable two-way player, but he's every bit as capable of being as dangerous as Byram offensively. There's a refinement there and a calculated aggressiveness that I enjoy watching.
• Ok, Holtz and Perfetti are lower than most. I'll say this: I really like Alexander Holtz's combination of skating and scoring ability. He's got a legitimately excellent release and scoring ability and is underrated with how engaged he is when he doesn't have the puck. Trouble is, beyond that I feel there is work to be done. He's unreliable in his own zone, and his passing can be unreliable if not making the conservative play. There is a great package of fundamental skill there, but you will need to know what to expect out of him if you're drafting him. With Perfetti, I see him listed as a centre, but often used as a winger, and I feel that's the best position for him, at least right now. His hands and creativity are among the best in the draft, and betting on that could convince me to put him right at the top of this tier, but I've found his defensive engagement to be poor, and his skating speed leads me to believe that he cheats high in the defensive zone to jump into rushes before they really get moving. It can work, but similar to Holtz, he might be a case of "you can't score points if  you aren't at least competent defensively". Offensively, however, Perfetti is an unbelievable passer with great hands and a very good release on him, and could be an A-level power play quarterback, but my outlook on him is skeptical at the moment.
• I usually don't put goalies in the 1st round. I'm pretty sure Askarov belongs here. After the players ranked prior are drafted, I'm willing to take the bet on him. I don't know what else to say. The guy is good and true #1 goaltending is invaluable.
• When Dylan Holloway is on, he can completely take over a shift. When he isn't, he can totally disappear, but he's also one of the youngest players in the NCAA and is coming from the AJHL. I love his energy and offensive skill, and I have all the time in the world to discuss taking him anywhere in this range. Considering his youth in the NCAA playing bottom six minutes with very little power play time in my experience, he could be flying under the radar.
• Rounding out the only tier where I'll write on everyone, I'm a believer in Noel Gunler. I've learned to try to avoid betting a player will capture their game at it's worst, and err on the side of the player at their best. Gunler is dangerous in transition and a great fast break playmaker. He has scoring ability sure, but so far in the games I've tracked of his, 28% of his pass attempts are directed at or through dangerous areas. His 69% SAT% is nice, and while there are issues with engagement defensively and with putting enough behind his passes to get to their target, at his best, Gunler certainly belongs here. If he's the guy that drops to the 2nd round, I run to the microphone and give him a go, rumoured attitude issues and all.

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Tier 3 - Could Be Great, or Nothing.

• Now we're getting spicy. Rodion Amirov leads this group, and I've been bouncing he and Jan Mysak between tiers 2 and 3 for a while. I'm a bigger believer in Amirov, but both are great scoring wingers. Mysak is younger, but I think gets undervalued due to his team. Litvinov is not a great modern team, often valuing dumping and chasing pucks and appear to be a team plagued by innate panic. Mysak falls into those habits, but the talent is blatantly there for him to be something much more. He's an effective member of the team, but I think he could be a very useful offensive piece. He's just hard to get a read on when he gets so few good looks. Amirov on the other hand has not looked out of place in the KHL to my eye, and has performed very well at the VHL level, let alone the MHL level. He doesn't show the habits of carelessness and individual focus I often see with young Russian players, and I think there's a great talent waiting to come out over time. He's in a very good program in Ufa with a number of high level young players, and I feel he's only going to get better.
• Kasper Simontaival is having a slow season on paper, but my data tracked on him is outstanding. He pushes possession, gets dangerous looks constantly, skates well, and for an offensive winger, he could potentially be a steal. He should be scoring a lot more than he is, and I think those who overlook him will be sorely mistaken down the line. 
• I have to feel for Hendrix Lapierre. I'm usually not afraid of drafting injured players, but three concussions in under a year, an injury that is often easier to get the more you have, is legitimately concerning. Incredibly Hlinka aside, I've felt he played fine in Chicoutimi with a lot of room to grow. In reality, I'd have a hard time taking the chance in the 1st round, but he's ranked here because dang nabbit, he's talented enough.
• Roni Hirvonen, William Wallinder, and Lukas Reichel are three players I will run through a wall for. Wallinder has the size, skating ability and stick skill to potentially be the best defender not named Drysdale in the draft. Absolutely love his raw tools. Hirvonen is a high octane offensive player who has impressed me with his refined game every time I've seen him, even if his team isn't great. On Reichel, people are sleeping on him, but his skating, quick decision making, and somewhat mediocre linemates (Maxim Lapierre, predominantly) lead me to be really high on him. He's a shooting machine from dangerous areas and can be highly valuable in transition. Definitely one to pay attention to as the season goes on.
• I want to love Dawson Mercer. I see the talent, but the consistency and data just isn't there.
• Jérémie Poirier is going to go as far as his brain takes him. In terms of raw talent, he's the #2 defender available, but his team works poorly as a unit and he's often a major part of that. Holding onto pucks too long, not engaging defensively, skating into 1 on 3s, and ignoring clear looks to linemates makes everything but offensive production look less than ideal on paper. If he can calm his game down a tad and play with a bit more dynamic ability, he could be a great pickup.

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Tier 4 - The Real Question Marks

• I already know what you're thinking, and please keep in mind that these are tiers. Justin Barron and Jean-Luc Foudy have been off to poor starts, but they're improving. I'm a big fan of the raw tools in both, especially Foudy, but I will be paying close attention to them over the year. I could be convinced to take them at the top end of the tier, but there are names in here that I am very excited about... like...
• Okay, I'm a numbers guy, and Marat Khusnutdinov doesn't have great production at first glance, but I've seen a lot of this guy play. Similar to Marco Rossi, every time Khusnutdinov steps on the ice so far when I've seen him, he's awesome. He's setting linemates up for scoring chances that are whiffed on, he's playing exceptional two-way hockey, he sets up behind the net to make a play beautifully. He's scoring primary points on 75% of goals scored while he's on the ice. He's getting points on 92%. He's a player I know you could grab in the 2nd, but I'm a big, big believer in him, especially considering his age. He's not getting much PP time, and his team is absolutely stacked and he's flying under the radar. He pushes pace, gets fantastic results, and if he can get stronger with better linemates and finishing ability on his own, he could be a steal.
• I just really like Jake Neighbours' upside. Skill, skating, agility, I'm a fan.
• Trust me, everyone. I see your Antonio Stranges gifs, and I've tracked a game of his that was comically lopsided in his favor, but there's something about his game and his data that just... doesn't feel right. He's an effective offensive player, but he's nearly invisible defensively at times, and his skating when not 10-2'ing around is... fine? Maybe I need to just watch more, but I have a hard time bumping him into my 1st round.
• The group of Gushchin, Novak, Francis, Pashin, Foerster, Jarvis, Wiesblatt, Farrell and Tullio all fall into the "potentially good complimentary player" category. I love Pashin's talent most of all of them, but guys like Novak, Gushchin, Francis and Foerster can be dangerous any time they step on the ice. I particularly like how Ryan Francis gets around the ice, and if he can get stronger on his feet and keep low to the ice, he could be a real sneaky offensive threat down the line.
• Joni Jurmo and Samuel Knazko have been real joys for me to watch in the Finnish junior league. Jurmo stuck out while tracking Juuso Mäenpää a while back, and he's been impressive. Aggressive in the neutral zone, and a wonderful skater for his size with underrated offensive ability on a stacked team. Knazko is much the same, but from my viewing, appears to favor defending the middle of the ice a bit more and using his edgework to create space from forecheckers. I'll need to watch more, but I really like what I see.
• Similar to Jurmo/Knazko, I've enjoyed watching William Villeneuve a lot more than some other Sea Dogs players this year. Villeneuve is one of those "safer" defenders who plays smart and creates offense well. He's still up at 24%INV with good even strength results even if he's a bit "safer". He's a player who seems to understand what the situation is while he's playing, rarely making poor decisions and getting around the ice smoothly and effectively. I'm unsure of potential, but he's a highly respectable player to my eye and data.
• Lots of people are hyping Michael Benning's production, especially compared to Cale Makar, which certainly stands out to me, but I highly, highly doubt Michael Benning is Cale Makar. There was a ruthless attacking mentality to Cale Makar's game, where Benning is much more of a pace controlling puck mover, but an effective one at that. Similar to Villeneuve, I could see Benning have good puck moving ability and PP upside, but his size and lack of strength can cause issues defensively that might be hidden by playing in the AJHL. He certainly earns himself his share of controlled offensive entries, and does well to cut play off in the neutral zone, but unless his velocity and edgework comes a step while at college, I think his upside could be somewhat limited. I'm certainly not comfortable dropping him beneath this tier though, so please don't get too upset if you're a fan of his.
• Of the 30 players where I've tracked an estimated neutral zone transition velocity, Roby Järventie appears to be the fastest by a wide margin. 45.4 km/h is well ahead of 2nd place, Swedish defender Helge Grans at 40.8 km/h.

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Tier 5 - "I Dunno, Maybe?"

• This tier is smaller, and there's a breed of player in here that I'm usually against drafting particularly high. Daemon Hunt, Alexander Nikishin, Braden Schneider and Ryan O'Rourke are in here. Big, physical defensemen who can get around the ice okay. I do like Schneider, but he's nearly a 2019 eligible. I haven't liked what I've seen of Ryan O'Rourke and I think his team masks his issues moving pucks and skating around the ice, but he has gotten results thus far. Nikishin has some nice hands for a defender, but he's hard to get a read on playing solid KHL minutes but seems a bit overwhelmed with the pace of the game most times I've seen him.
• Kasper Puutio is a guy I've liked. His team in Swift Current is... not great. He has some moments where I find him impressive, somewhat reminding me of Ville Heinola from 2019. He's  a good two-way player who can cut play off in the neutral zone well, but I'm not sure of his real upside.
• Ville Ottavainen is a big defender who I love to watch skate around the ice. He might end up higher in my rankings this year due to his two-way numbers and his skating ability, but I'll need to see more.
• Dmitri Ovchinnikov is my mini-Marat. A guy who I love to watch play who might need better linemates to really show what he can do. He's a great skater who can weave through the neutral zone and get to dangerous areas, while also being a good perimeter player willing to set plays up off the boards and making intelligent defensive reads from time to time. I really like what I see from him and over time he could become a nice offensive leaning two-way energy winger.
• I've really liked Colby Ambrosio with Tri-City. He's an effective piece of a team that isn't where it was last year. Good young skater with good scoring instincts and a 30%+INV in the USHL, which is usually a pretty good benchmark.

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Honourable Mentions

• Jake Sanderson and Luke Tuch are two guys who just missed the cut. I like Sanderson's skating, but he's a long term project with nothing much to show for this year. Tuch, I'm just not sure. On that note, I've really enjoyed watching Eamon Powell play.
• I need to see more of Jack Thompson and Théo Rochette.
• Will Cuylle should probably be in here, but I haven't noticed him on the ice when I've caught Windsor games and his metrics are poor.
• Nick Malik is a not-small goalie playing against men and doing well. That checks a few boxes.
• Lukas Svejkovsky is a fun player to watch who gets great results. I've got an eye on him a bit.
• Russian names like Pavel Tyutnev, Maxim Beryozkin, Maxim Nevolin and overagers Takhir Mingachyov, Danil Alalykin have all stood out to me for various reasons, especially Tyutnev playing bottom-6 minutes with Loko Yaroslavl.
• Victor Mancini appears to be getting decent minutes, and all of his points are primary points at even strength and he's up near a 100% TotCat% on a stacked team. Frölunda's U20 team scores 5.6 even strength goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. That is really something and worth keeping an eye on.
• I probably dislike your favourite players.

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Closing Thoughts

So that's that. The first few tiers that are increasingly likely to change the further down you go. Lots of names I've laid eyes on but haven't tracked, lots of names I have data on but haven't laid eyes on, and there's still lots of hockey left to play. I'm only really​ confident in my Top-40 or so with room for more players in that group over time. This is an imperfect science, but all we're trying to do is cut through biases and isolate good players who carry value that is beyond that typically available at any team's given pick. I certainly over time have evolved my tastes to prefer a certain brand of play, and hopefully that's on display in these rankings and with the data I track that will be publicly released around draft time.

If you've made it this far, thank you all so much for your support through the last 15 months as we've seen this platform grow significantly. This work is a joy to put together. These kids are chasing their dreams, and all we can do is sit and watch, but boy is it ever fun to watch. In my dreams, I'm drafting some of these guys into my own program, but until then, I have you, the reader, so thank you.

The next rankings are likely out in January or Februrary, depending on how confident I'm feeling on a given week.

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