Scouching's Preliminary 2021 Top-31+ NHL Draft Rankings

First off, I hope you and yours are all doing well. This year has been really strange, really frustrating, and above all, just really hard. The COVID-19 Pandemic has been an extremely difficult adjustment for many, and to all our medical professionals out there, you're all just a bunch of heroes. I honestly don't know what day it is most days anymore, but regardless of what's going on in the world, hockey seems to be stumbling along around the world adapting as things shift and change just like the rest of us. It's been unique so far, but luckily there's been enough to watch and track where I feel somewhat confident about at least the first 3 tiers of players for the 2021 Draft. As of time of writing (November 18, 2020), I've gathered data on 43 skaters across 54 games played, which granted is a small sample, but all of these players are players I've laid eyes on over the last two seasons, and many of these are players I've tracked data on so far this season.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

Before we get started with a list, I'd just like to put a calm reminder out there to please be selfless and look out for yourself, your family, and your community by wearing a mask, washing/sanitizing your hands, staying distant, staying within your household as much as possible, and when the time is right, receiving whatever vaccine is available. This virus is horrible and has taken far, far too many lives. Protecting yourself, yours, and those who you many never encounter starts with you.

Alright, behold. Scouching's Top-31+ preliminary rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft. Please keep in mind that Pick224 doesn't seem to be updated for this season, so the metrics derived from Dave's data mining is not available. Also, data streams and sample sizes are all over the place, so take the metrics with a salt mine's worth of salt.

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Tier 1 - ​¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This could very easily be ordered very, very differently come the 2021 NHL Draft. It might honestly come down to what style of play you just... like.

• Luke Hughes is #1 to me for a combination of his size, age, skating ability, and offensive lean with excellent two-way potential. He's a tremendous driver of offensive transitions and has taken a big step with his skating from last season. Owen Power is almost a full year older, and I've found Hughes to be the more exciting player as of right now, but it's close.
• Yes, there's a goalie at 3 here. I love Wallstedt. He's squared up in form constantly. He stops pucks a lot. He's calm, collected, and already doing very well at the SHL level, something no first time draft eligible has done before. If you're in such an uncertain draft, and there's a chance of landing a franchise goalie, could we see a goalie go at #1 if they've been playing in the SHL all year? I wouldn't count it out. Where Yaroslav Askarov might be a bit more reactionary and athletic, Wallstedt is calculated, smart, and focused, and I've greatly enjoyed watching him when he's played this year.
• I can't help but be disappointed in Aatu Räty so far this season. I've described him as "Anton Lundell ratcheted up a bit" and I still stand by that. He's highly responsible defensively, smart with his positioning, and has a fluidity and skill that I didn't see in Lundell last year. The catch is that Räty's offensive game seems extremely hit-or-miss. I've seen Cody Ceci-esque misses on shots from in the slot, but I've seen him put one in the top of the net from near the goal line. He's a big case of "wait-and-see". While the potential is there for him to go #1 in my view, I think I lean more in the direction of Räty going later than where I have him slotted.
• Fabian Lysell might be the guy portrayed as an offensive dynamo (which he is) but he's an extremely underrated two-way player in the games I've seen. He works hard and it pays off. He had an outrageously good game in the 1st game I tracked, and his 2nd wasn't too much worse. He can score, pass, play away from the puck, and he's one of these guys I could watch play the game all day. It seems silly, but the only thing holding him back from being higher on my list is that the quality of defender in this top group.
• Clarke is a curious one. I think his style of play is really hard to pull off in the NHL, so I'm withholding him from a top slot until I can see him play this year and track some games.
• William Eklund is just going to likely be a really, really rock solid meat and potatoes hockey player. Really great two-way player who does good things almost every time he's stepping on the ice. There's a lot of Lucas Raymond echoes here, but I don't see quite the same talent level. Just an admirable player I'll have my eye on all year.
• I really, really like Beniers. I've been watching him for three seasons now, and he's just such a solid offensive mind. Tremendous results in game 1 of tracking, a great combination of footspeed, skill, adaptability and creativity. A great offensive pivot who can drive great transition rates offensively and supply linemates with shot assists in the offensive zone, as of right now, I have more time for projecting Beniers as a top level prospect before teammate Kent Johnson.

Tier 2 - ...More Like Tier 1B

• Lambos is a player who gives me a bit of pause. Defenders who are "good at everything but not elite at much" seem to always underperform their draft slot. Not saying it's impossible, and I love Lambos' ability to work the blueline, distribute the puck and participate in an offense, but I just haven't seen enough that can quite get him higher on my list.
• I want Simon Edvinsson to be a thing so badly. The raw talent here could very easily put him in Tier 1, but goodness gracious his puck distribution and ability to think under pressure can be woefully inadequate. He's driving great defensive transition metrics, solid shot differentials, and has a tremendous combination of skating and skill for a defender, but this is a defender near 120 pass attempts/60 through two tracked games, which would put him 2nd in my 2020 tracking, and missing on 45% of those passes. That is not good enough. Luckily, improving in that area of the game should unlock a tremendous player. He might require patience, but the tools are there.
• On Kent Johnson, I get it. The skill is there in spades, but in my view, that's largely where the high end ability ends. I'm not huge on how he gets around the ice, how he thinks under heavy pressure, and compared to a player like Matthew Beniers, I come away thinking Beniers might have a better two way game as a quarterback down the middle. We'll see on Johnson, but I'm not on the same train as many others so far.
• L'Heureux, Sillinger, Robertsson, Stankoven, and Bourgeault are just really fun players to watch. Bourgeault and L'Heureux both had excellent first tracked games in terms of offensive transitions and creating offense, especially L'Heureux.
• Nikita Chibrikov could be as good as he wants to be. I see a very, very inactive player away from the puck far too often regardless of what level he's playing at,  but when the puck is on his stick and he's got the confidence flowing, he's a tremendous player. Great skill to open up the ice and manipulate opponents, a great release he could use from dangerous areas more often, and a sense of patience that can be hard to find.
• Chaz Lucius is the probably the guy I have lower than most, but it's more philosophical to me. He's an exceptional finisher with a diverse set of skills to use on goaltenders to put pucks where they are not. Beyond that, I'm not sure what's there. He's wasn't as good of a shot differential driver with the U17 team last year, and his game is very reliant on goal scoring, which implies that other players are doing legwork for him, but he's still an exceptional goal scorer. When he's back from injury, I'll be tracking him early, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a guy that's lower on my list than most. He's still very good at what he does, though.
• I don't quite get why others haven't latched onto Cole Huckins yet. He's a 6'3" centre (granted often playing the wing when I've seen him) with a great transition game going both directions who attempted a comparable number of dangerous passes as Zach L'Heureux in Game 1. He drives through pressure very well, but can also leave players behind with his speed and skill. I've got an eye on him and I've been pleasantly surprised at how he's generating his results so far.
• I've only tracked a game of Samu Tuomaala, and I frankly was disappointed. You can see what he's all about for sure, but he was more of an auxiliary player when I tracked him. He took good care of the puck, but wasn't involved much offensively, and his transition game was b a d. I still have tons of time for him, but I was surprised at what I saw both with my eyeballs and in the data.
• Well, I think I've found the small player I latch onto for the year in Jeremy Wilmer. He's agile on his feet, has exceptional skill, and has dual threat offense that I just can't stop watching. He isn't playing a ton with the U18 team, but I hope his minutes climb over the year. He drove great shot differentials in the game I tracked, but seemed to have trouble getting going in terms of generating offense at 5v5. I chalk that up to how the game goes sometimes, but if that holds up over the year, he might end up further down my list. He just gives me a feeling that he's going to work out, and be a great offensive player with some time and patience.

Tier 3 - One Small Step Down

• Scott Morrow is simply hilarious. If he were playing in the USHL or NCAA the way he plays at the prep level, he could be a phenomenal defenseman and ranked much, much higher. His defensive reads can be a bit hit or miss at times, but goodness gracious outside of that, he has immense talent. His size, forwards skating ability and mobility, the skill he's got to pull pucks around the ice and evade pressure, and make little plays everywhere to maintain possession are spectacular traits. If you've got HockeyTV, go check him out. He's punching way, way below his weight class with Shattuck and it shows in the data. 
• Sean Behrens is a small defender with great offensive tools, but outside the OZ, I have questions. I think his ability to cover ice for a small defenseman is not quite there, and his lack of strength and explosiveness on his feet can be an issue. I have time for the guy, and I'll keep an eye on him, but there are other defenders on the NTDP like Aidan Hreschuk, and even Jake Martin (who just missed the cut here) that I've felt are more projectable talents right now.
• William Strömgren is a big, skilled winger who I think has tons of potential. He drives great shooting metrics, rock solid transition data, and can be a real thrill to watch. MODO has some really interesting draft eligibles this year in Theo Jacobsson and Karl Umegård, but Strömgren takes the cake to me.
• Marcus Almquist is basically a more projectable version of Zion Nybeck in my view. He's got speed and agility where Nybeck didn't, and the metrics he drove in Game 1 are outstanding, especially compared to Nybeck. His Offensive Threat crossed 30, with excellent shot selection and playmaking ability. If Wilmer's 5v5 game never reaches what I think it could be, Almquist is right there as the small player I'll be pushing for.
• On the polar opposite of the height scale is Samuel Helenius. He is a very, very big boy who I'd buy into. His mobility and fluidity are already at a pretty high level in my view, and in Game 1 of tracking, registered a dangerous pass attempt rate of 14.3, putting him 8th in my tracking thus far. Who's #1? Scott Morrow, of course. Helenius is very, very raw, but I think there's potential for a defense first player that can chip in offensively.
  
• Lada Togliatti is a... team. They've got two great draft eligibles in Fyodor Svechkov and Dmitri Kostenko, but refuse to play them together. Without those two involved in play, that team can be downright hopeless. Svechkov went 12/14 in controlling offensive transitions and went 10/13 in preventing control on defensive transitions, with 3 shot attempts that counted for 25% of his team's shot attempts in Game 1. I'm a believer in Svechkov, and Kostenko to a lesser extent, but Lada is one of those teams where how their unit functions naturally makes it really tough to get a good read on the specific prospects your looking at.
• ​I've found that Hugo Gabrielsson does a really good job covering for Simon Edvinsson's tendency to... panic. While not extremely active across bluelines in the limited 5v5 time he got in Game 1, he drove good shooting metrics, landed a high danger attempt connected on 11 of 13 passes, including a dangerous pass attempt leading to one of his two shot assists in the <9 5v5 minutes he played. I think his data will improve the more I track, but he's one to watch regardless.​

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Overall Thoughts

It's a weird group. I don't really see the drop in talent levels that we've seen in recent years, and the talent seems to be coming from all over the world more than before. It feels as if instead of a certain team or country having "their guy" to compete with Canada's best, many countries are developing better and better talent more and more as time goes on, which is clouding this year's draft. Let me also just say that 2022 looks to be similar. There are a lot of "Glitter Players" that have caught my eye in tracking this year that are eligibles next year, and they're everywhere. The interconnectivity and globalism provided in modern society seems to be leveling the playing field significantly. I mean, the oldest players on this list would've been around 4 years old when I got a Facebook account. They likely don't remember a time before YouTube and high speed internet connections where anyone can share tips and information as they please to the whole world. Judging by the breadth of interesting talent for the 2021 Draft, I don't really mind.

Thank you very much for perusing this, I hope you enjoyed, and please remember to look out for yourself and everyone else by taking the proper COVID precautions and being careful with your risk management. It might save a life you may never meet, and it may save the life of someone you love.

Toodles!