The Scouching Blog

Scouching's Preliminary 2023 NHL Draft Rankings

12/17/2022

Here we are, all together again for the holiday season. I've been hard at work since late August watching and tracking hundreds of players around the world, and my first preliminary list is now ready for public consumption. Be forewarned, there are takes, but rather than farming clicks, I've explained where my head is at with the vast majority of where I diverge from the norm. This season, I feel like I diverge quite a bit from the norm moreso than average, and I'm really curious to see and hear the feedback from you all, both in and out of the league.

Overall, this is a very strong class in my opinion. Any team in the bottom half of the NHL standings, especially in the top 10 or so should be very excited about their potential options. There are some exceptional forwards available especially, headlined by two wonderfully talented players, with a handful of high skill and high intensity defensemen mixed into a forward-heavy group that could be great adds as well. I would say that where my "bar of excitement" where I throw my hands in the air and go "pick whoever", within reason of course has expanded from around 25 players last year, to almost two full rounds this year. I really think that anyone in my top two rounds have something in their game that can get you excited about what they could be in the NHL. Obviously not every single player will play, but this is a class that gives me stronger feelings than the last two at least.

It's almost important to outline exactly what I'm looking for and how I value players transparently, which can be imperative for communicating with the public. I'll copypasta from last year's final ranking post because my philosophy hasn't particularly changed for quite a while. I don't mind taking on more risk if it means the player in question could bring skills that make them talents you wish you had more of at the NHL level. I will always value players with higher end individual traits that could slot into a clear NHL role with possible success over players that are competent all-around if not exciting. Some may disagree and go for "safety" over risk, but that's the beauty of evaluating talent in a professional sports environment. There are many ways to be successful, it's just a matter of having a strong organizational philosophy that you trust can bring you success over the long term. In terms of the types of players I gravitate to, I've always held that speed, skill, pace and the ability to problem solve and make plays in close quarters are major factors that can make a player impactful at the NHL level. Biometric factors and other intangible factors carry a certain level of weight with me, but I always go back to the end results and the quality of play coming from a player. If the results are great but the players lack that speed, skill, pace and problem solving ability that I look for, that player is devalued, especially if they're undersized on top of it all. If they are struggling to produce those results on the scoresheet but carry those traits, they may be worth nurturing and working with over a long period to try to get that puck to go in the net more often than it does, and in my experience, betting on those traits leads to generally greater success, especially outside of the early rounds of the draft.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up. I'd also like to thank InStat Hockey and McKeens Hockey for providing access to the video and data tools that are invaluable to my work. If you'd like an outline of the metrics below, here they are:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.

Thank you so much for having a peek at this preliminary list and we'll see you on the other side!

Tier 1 - A Tale of Two First Overalls

All you're hearing this year is Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard, and for good reason, but I am steadfast that even if you miss on landing the first overall pick, Fantilli is about as good a consolation prize as Bedard, and likely brings a tremendous amount of NHL value in his own right. In terms of overall impact all over the ice, I see these two as much closer than many, but the edge still strongly lies in Bedard's favour.
Starting with Bedard, he is one of the most electrifying skilled scorers I've ever seen. He may lack size, but don't let anyone call him soft or scared. He gets in your face. He knows he's good, and he wants you to know it. I love that about him, and always appreciate the swagger when he's really cooking. I do have issues with his defensive game when it comes to a tendency to wait in support positions looking for loose pucks and not engaging deep in his own zone much, but the volume, efficiency, and speed at which he generates offensive transitions is unlike any other player I've ever tracked. I could raise issue with his shot selection and a bit of a lack of playmaking vision at times, but this seems to have been improved over the season in my viewings and considering his supporting cast in Regina, giving him the keys to the car and driving it however he wants seems reasonable. Will playing 75 games in that system potentially give him bad habits? I'm not sure, but regardless, it doesn't really matter unless it's really extreme, and I have no indication that he is unable to adapt and change his game when he's playing with better teammates. He's a tremendous talent, and is likely to fill NHL nets for quite a while and likely be one of the most devastating power play scorers we've seen in a very long time.
Adam Fantilli on the other hand? Well, I may not draft him first overall, but I would probably draft him first overall if he were available in every draft since maybe 2018 when Rasmus Dahlin went first overall. If not him, 2016 when Auston Matthews went to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Fantilli and Matthews bring somewhat similar brands of play on paper in my view. Big, fast, skilled scoring centres that show potential for growth defensively, and all the signs to be a tremendous play driver in the NHL. Fantilli brings such a rare combination of finesse, frame, and finish that it's impossible to ignore him on the ice almost every time he gets off the bench. He hasn't skipped a beat in the NCAA this year, improving his ability to generate speed and create space with his feet and hands over last season while maintaining his wonderful wrist shot. If he can get stronger over the next few years to be a little more resilient under pressure than he already is, and if he can bring a bit more of a support game in the defensive end, he could be a massive play driver. While I doubt he scores points at quite the rate of Bedard, I do think there are areas where Fantilli shows more promise, even if he's almost a year older, and could lead to comparably good overall results at the NHL level beyond the scoresheet.
I cannot stress this enough. In this draft, not drafting first overall isn't ideal, but it certainly is not a bad thing. Either of these players will be key cogs to build around for whoever lands them. If I had to pick which team I'd love to see these players go to as of December 2022? Bedard in Anaheim and Fantilli in Columbus would be my picks. I'd probably need to move to Anaheim if that were to happen, and Fantilli would bring a physical, offensive force up the middle of the ice that I think they could really use to solidify their core of forwards.

Tier 2 - "Consolation Prizes"

In many other years, any of these players could challenge for a first overall slot. I would honestly be open to taking all of these players ahead of Juraj Slafkovsky last year, and I could easily see these players on par with my top tier from last year. Drafting outside the top two is not a bad spot to be in this season, and fans should be excited to hear any of these names called wherever they may go.
It took me a little while to really see the potential in Leo Carlsson, but I'm fully onboard now. He started the season a bit hesitant and passive, but his confidence has only grown with every viewing. He isn't perfect, but he's sorting out his role in the SHL over time, and gaining play driving capability as he tries things on the ice. He's big, brings a great sense of misdirection and pass lane creation. He manipulates pucks through and around traffic so well, especially in the offensive zone, attacks the net often, and if he gets a good jump in the neutral zone in transition, he can be a threatening puck transporter as well. I can easily see how another year or two in Sweden could pay massive dividends for the big man, and if you miss out on an Adam Fantilli, you could land a potentially excellent two-way playmaking centre that will enable scoring wingers to stretch out a bit and push for more offense.
I just can't help but move Andrew Cristall up my list more and more and more every time I watch him. Not every game has been perfect, but in many even strength scoring metrics, Cristall is really giving Bedard a run for his money. I can't get the thought out of my head that I haven't seen as creative and exciting a playmaker as Cristall since watching Mitch Marner as a London Knight. They were both around a point per game the year before eligibility, and Cristall is well on his way to a nearly 130 point WHL campaign, again similar to Marner. He drives his results from remarkable manipulation, skill and creativity looking for multiple options, quick thinking deep in the offensive zone, and making everyone else on his line generate great production. Again, something Mitch Marner did. Some questioned Marner's lack of size, and I'd say those concerns are somewhat legitimate with Cristall when it comes to effectively chipping in defensively, but with time to improve his quickness and build some strength on his frame, I can't see why Cristall can't be a passable defensive player who really comes out of his shell with the puck on his stick. He brings me great joy when I watch him play, unlike almost anyone else in this draft, and I can't wait to see how his back half of the year goes.
Zach Benson is probably the most admirable player in the draft to watch. He's got a relentless work ethic at both ends of the ice, never giving anyone a second to think or react, and is quick to head the other way with the puck and drive excellent results as a perimeter playmaker. If he just had a bit more skill and confidence to attack the middle both on and off the puck more than he does, he could be a tremendous offensive talent. What he brings currently however will suit him extremely well to being a great 200-foot contributor in the NHL. He may not be the biggest player, but if a team like say, Montreal lands Benson, you present Brendan Gallagher to him and go "learn everything you can from this man", and let the rest sort itself out. He may not be the hungry net-front presence that Gallagher has been in the past, but he certainly has the work rate and intensity to try it, and he already does plenty of other things extremely well. Will he shoot the lights out in the NHL? I'm not so sure unless he diversifies his offensive game and works on becoming a truly elite speed generator, but I am pretty sure he'll find a very important role to play in an NHL system.

Tier 3 - A Few Really Really Good Options

Here's where things start to get real spicy. There are names in here that many other lists don't have anywhere near here, but gone are the days of me really caring too much about where other people have players rank as it relates to my own work. It's good to have conflicting opinions, but it still comes down to my own analysis after considering those other opinions, and I'm pretty confident that this group has enormous NHL potential.
Axel Sandin Pellikka was a guy who if you told me he'd be ranked in my top 10 before the Hlinka Gretzky tournament, I'd ask who the hell you're talking about and why Sandy Pelican is draft eligible. It didn't take long after checking him out in a Champions Hockey League game to see just how talented this defenseman is. He's arguably the shiftiest and most skilled defender out there this year, with excellent crossover work leading to great lateral mobility and deception with the puck. He possesses a strong shot from the point which he can combine with his playmaking to form a truly threatening offensive package. He just keeps moving up the depth chart at home in Sweden and earned himself a spot with the World Junior team, and I can't wait to see what he can do at that level. A lovely side of his game is the stability he brings when moving pucks. He passes the puck a lot, but that boy just don't miss. He completes a ton of passes by applying that skill level in very intelligent ways, reading oncoming pressure, adapting if need be, executing on simple possession passes, and being willing to use linemates to defuse pressure and regroup if need be. His defensive game is a work in progress as I've found his gap management and backwards mobility to be limiting, relying on getting his stick in lanes with poor pressure application, but once play gets turned around, all bets are off. He's the #1 defender on my board right now, but there are others that may make that claim, and while I remain a big fan, there are many players that I think could challenge his spot in the top 10, but for now, he's an exciting offensive creator and possession defenseman who I'll go to bat for for a while.
Get your jokes in now, because it certainly won't get old at some point! Will Smith, similar to Cristall, has consistently moved up and up my board as other names have moved down. Behind Cristall, he is arguably the most creative and exciting playmaker in this draft class with how he plays with dynamic pace, slows things down, adapts to pressure, and creates completely new passing lanes out of thin air. He's had some frankly unbelievable shot assists in the games I've tracked and really reminds me of my thoughts on Clayton Keller when he was Smith's age. High end creative thinking, strong offensive pace, but limitations elsewhere that will need to be tackled. His defensive engagement is lacking, as is his ability to generate speed and push defenses on their heels. He relies a bit too much on adapting to pressure, which will only become a tougher task at higher levels beyond college and may delay development into the prime NHL offensive player he could be. The positives are all there though, and with skating improvements and time to make mistakes, learn and grow, the upside could be tremendous.
I can already hear the yelling that my top ranked Russian is neither Matvei Michkov or Mikhail Gulyayev, but a non-traditional Scouching pick in hulking Yaroslavl defender Dmitri Simashev. Forget about the points for a second. This guy is a monster. He's huge, he skates like he isn't huge, he's been playing solid minutes in the KHL all year until getting injured, and watching him in the MHL is literally the cliché of "a man amongst boys". Players at all levels simply cannot get past the guy with masterful crossovers to close gaps, massive reach to get pucks free and out of danger, and enough skill and creativity on his own to not only protect the puck and maintain possession, but to show flashes of offensive potential. He should have the freedom to push things offensively a little more, but it seems as though he's holding back and playing it safe while smaller defenders step up and play with a little more offensive flair. I think long term, Simashev could be that guy too. He's been extremely impressive in my KHL viewings this year, and some of my MHL viewings this year have left me having a laugh in my seat. I wouldn't be surprised to see NHL teams jumping at the chance to add a player like Simashev much earlier than people expect, and his lack of production is, in my opinion, not at all concerning.
Jayden Perron might be a bit of a surprise to some, but I just cannot help but love this guy. Yes, he's small, but I frankly just do not care, considering how he plays. He's a high pace, high work rate skilled player who is fearless. Challenging players one on one, making plays from the perimeter, making plays from inside dangerous areas, landing scoring chances from those areas, stopping up in transition to create gaps and thread beautiful passes into space for trailing forwards, the guy just does so, so much so, so well. Yes, the production has slowed as the year continues, but some of the games I've seen from Perron are simply bonkers, and this year is a bit of a down year for the Steel, regardless of what Perron does on his own.
Mikhail Gulyayev is going to be a very very interesting player to keep an eye on over the next few years. He's probably the individual with the widest gap between quality of on-puck play and off-puck play. If he snags the puck off an opponent, he may have some of quickest first couple steps to create a gap of any player in the draft, especially among the other defenders. He's remarkably skilled, and watching him at the MHL level is almost like watching someone way better than me torch me in "chel". He doesn't belong there, and I think he's being faced with valuable lessons in the VHL against pros. His defensive gap management, awareness of opponents in dangerous space, and physical strength are all big liabilities, but holy moly the forward skating and skill is really something. Puck distribution can be hit or miss, as he'll have tons of space to skate into using his best tools but will give pucks away or carelessly give the opponent the opportunity to reload in the neutral zone with errant passes. If he can learn to build a better map of the ice and stay calm under pressure a bit, while leaning into his feet to gain position moving up the ice, he could be a tremendous offensive defender, even if he has some defensive warts if his physical development doesn't come quite far enough.
The more I watch Oliver Moore and Ryan Leonard, the better and better they look to me during this season. Moore is one of the better puck manipulators when it comes to creation of passing lanes and running pucks up the ice in a variety of ways through a strong set of crossovers and a confidence to attack different rushing lanes. He's a high pace player with a bunch of skill and I think with time could be a heck of an offensive rush scorer down the road.
Ryan Leonard may have a ton of goals and not much else, which I often find problematic, but Leonard brings remarkable north-south determination and an extremely high end shot to cap off possession. In my tracking, it's pretty clear that he's a player who really prefers to have the puck on his stick, driving his best results carrying pucks and generating individual chances through those rushes. Diversifying his game will be imperative for building out a better projection, and working with linemates a little more is indicated with poor pass volumes and completion rates to this point, but the tools are there, and he's a fitting add at the tail end of this tier after an excellent Five Nations performance not too long ago.

Tier 4 - Offensive Threats Galore

Let's get the elephant out of the room. Yes, Matvei Michkov is in this tier. Yes, I am well aware that he scores lots of goals in the VHL to this point. No, it is not because of the Russian Government or his contract situation. Yes, I am aware he is one spot behind someone who does not score lots of goals at the same level, is smaller, and not ranked on... well... any boards out there. We'll get to him, but Michkov has been underwhelming in my viewings where I am not at all convinced he's a top 5 or even a top 10 option considering the performances of the players in the tier above to this point. He's highly skilled and has great awareness to fill space in the offensive zone to generate his chances, but he's often a very poor puck distributor, with some soft passing into careless space that can be easily picked off. He skates into pressure constantly and tries to challenge players one on one with predictable skill moves and simply will not chip the puck if he can't get his way through the pressure. I've seen countless transitions get wasted through overhandling, overconfidence, and errant passing combined with a relatively low pace of play that has simply flipped the script on him. In my view, he was high on my board for a while because, while I had concerns before the year, he scores so much that he deserved a high slot. Now, many other players have shown better in my view, and Michkov in the VHL has been a major mixed bag in my tracking at 5v5 in terms of projecting to the NHL. Now that he's headed to a young team in Sochi that likely will give him a strong KHL role, I have all the time in the world for him to prove that he's the elite scorer he's reputed to be at a higher level with other high pace and unrefined young players, but for now, I see a very skilled winger with a strong mind for earning scoring chances off-puck, with significant issues both on and off the puck that could limit his outlook to a more conservative role in the NHL, at least at even strength.
Phew, with that out of the way, let's have a peek at the VHL player ahead of him in Timur Mukhanov. I simply adore this guy. He's a similar size to Michkov, but brings a significantly better defensive work rate and his pure speed is simply remarkable. He's got skill at that high pace that hasn't quite locked in with his footwork when quarterbacking offensive transitions, but along the boards, or cutting into space in the offensive zone? He's lights out. He earns his chances in a totally different way from Michkov, but in my view has a tremendous amount of potential if you leave him in Russia for a few years earning more ice time in the VHL and one day the KHL. He's a big home run swing but I've watched these two back to back all year, and I just can't help but value the intensity, pace and skill that Mukhanov brings at even strength.
I had Luca Pinelli listed as my top rated OHLer in Brock Otten's top OHL prospect poll and was frankly stunned to see him left off of multiple lists entirely. He's a highly skilled energetic forward who can make a play, can attack the middle of the ice, and drives excellent rates of offensive turnover generation off the puck. He just keeps driving great results through hard work, great speed, and a creative mind that I think is significantly undervalued out there.
Eduard Sale is going to be a very interesting one to watch at the World Juniors. The first few games I saw in the Czech top division were outstanding, and across every game tracked his results are strong, but he's the king of doing little things and not overthinking the game while displaying a lack of pace, true high end skill and quickness. He just reads where the game is going very well, builds a strong map of the ice, and keeps his offensive creation simple and effective. Defensively he doesn't have the feet to really step up and challenge in transition, and I'd really like to see some skill refinement to help him knock down errant passes more, as I've noted pucks seeping through him that could be picked off more often than I feel is normal for highly touted young players.
Luca Cagnoni has been up and down in my viewings, but I really love the offensive confidence he brings. He may be one of the better puck carrying defenders when it comes to reading and getting around oncoming pressure, be it at low or high pace. He can really sling passes around as well, especially in the offensive zone, but has had issues hitting targets and placing them well in transition, and he's one of the most active offensive transition defensemen tracked to this point. I do have him higher than most, and think there's a strong foundation to work on.
I also have a lot of time for Riley Heidt and Nate Danielson higher than I have it. Heidt is a highly skilled and confident offensive winger that drives immense offensive creation and finishing numbers in my work with strong shot selection and highly efficient in offensive transitions, but the only real concern I have with his game lies off the puck. His intensity level drops and has been one of the least active players defensively. He may very well be a player where the offense at 5v5 outweighs the defensive shortcomings, but it all depends on what you prioritize. I've got lots of time for him higher as I said. This is a very close range.
Danielson is a bit more of a mixed bag than Heidt with strong offensive results through perimeter playmaking, but I still love the idea of what he could be. I think he has an underused and underrated shot, combined with a good but not great skill level that limits him from getting himself into great scoring positions more often, but the north-south speed and two-way intensity he brings has been really fun to watch to this point. He's highly active in defensive transitions, shutting down many, and could bring a great details player to your team. Nearly a third of his passes have been directed to or through the slot, as he clearly prefers to successfully carry pucks up the ice himself in order to make a play, and while Nate is lower on my list than he has been in the last little while, he brings a ton of potential that I'd bet on.
Yeah I've got Michal Hrabal on here but I fully admit I don't entirely know what I'm doing with goaltending. He seems exceptionally technical and square to the puck constantly, remaining calm, using a massive frame to simply occupy as much of the net as humanly possible. He stops lots of pucks, faces a pretty heavy workload, and who knows, he could be a thing! Around this tier is where I'd start to feel comfortable adding a potential #1 goaltender and taking the risk compared to some of the names around him and what their ceilings could be, but I'm still always terrified of goaltenders drafted high that don't already play professional hockey with a long, strong resume of success.
To close, Gavin Brindley headlines this tier, mostly because I just adore how he plays. I've been watching Brindley since he was 16 with the Tri-City Storm and have been looking forward to him getting drafted ever since. Yes, he's small, but the potential is enormous with this guy now that I see him in college. He's fast, agile, skilled, and brings energy to both sides of the ice and on both sides of the puck. He's immensely successful in transition going either direction with very strong defensive involvement. I get the feeling he's still feeling and figuring out the offensive game in college as he can get shut down physically a bit along the boards and skate himself into too much pressure, but the two-way transition impact with a great college team in a great college conference is enticing. If he can be had much later than where I have him ranked, he could be an excellent middle-six pug on skates that you can depend on to drive great results, even if he isn't going to fill the net every night in the NHL.

Tier 5 - The Meat of the Class

Honestly, I don't have a frickin' clue how to order all these guys, and you could make an argument for almost any order for whatever reason.
Do you want to swing hard, and I mean hard, for the fences? Look no further than William Whitelaw, Otto Stenberg, or Aydar Suniev. Want someone a bit more dependable and easy to project down your lineup? Have a peek at Musty, Ritchie, Stramel, or Dvorsky perhaps? Do you want someone to really sink your development teeth into and mold them into a fascinating NHLer? Matthew Wood, Daniil But, Samuel Honzek and Caden Price all come to mind.
There's a lot to like here, and this is where a lot of players many others have ranked quite highly lie for me, namely Brayden Yager, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Calum Ritchie.
I've really, really struggled with Brayden Yager this year. He's a player who has decent forwards speed and a real solid slap shot, especially coming out on the power play, but that's the only game state where I have really seen a potential top pick. At 5v5, he struggles to keep up with pace and get involved defensively with Moose Jaw in my viewings and data, has turned the puck over on 60% of offensive transitions through missed passes and a skill level that makes him a bit too easy to close out with pressure, and he carries low involvement rates going both directions. There just isn't an area of the game at 5v5 that he's really carrying play with, outside of getting shots from medium danger areas, where he does drive good results, but in my philosophy, I need to see more, especially if I'm drafting a player in the top ten. Are we looking at the next Mike Hoffman archetype? Potentially, and that's totally ok! I just see other players that could bring more value in other areas that could help enable players like Yager to be the shooty-boys they need to be.
With Dvorsky, the issues are somewhat similar to Yager, but lacking the dangerous shooting results, or shooting results at all. His edges and body weight shifts to turn and generate speed are great, but his skill level and pace of his game are lacklustre and results in low offensive transition involvement and lower than expected carrying results. His lack of footspeed and agility limits him defensively as well, and his lack of even strength scoring this year doesn't surprise me. Most players from HockeyAllsvenskan drafted extremely high in the draft score significantly more than Dvorsky, and if it were a case of the puck just not going in for him, I'd be clearly stating that, but I've never been as taken with his game as others, and I think there's a developmental runway ahead that will need to improve his problem solving, skill at high speeds, generating better speed, and becoming a better creator of offense for others in the offensive zone.
Calum Ritchie is another guy where I have time for him to be higher on my board at the end of the day, but I just haven't been particularly taken with him in my viewings. Usually there are indicators that players on bad teams may be the ones trying their best to make them better, but I just haven't seen that with Ritchie. His transition involvement is ho-hum, he's turning the puck over on over half his pass attempts, his efficiency in transition is adequate, and his offensive threat metric is less than half that of other CHL players like Danielson, Heidt, and Pinelli. We'll see if his back half is better, and I do like the quality of his release in stride, it just... hasn't come out often, with just 22% of his teams shot attempts coming off his stick, just 7% being dangerous, and poor shot assist rates to this point.
There hasn't been a player on as much of a yo-yo string for me as Daniil But. I simultaneously love and cannot stand how this guy plays. He is simply enormous, and his crossovers into the neutral zone can generate a ton of speed, and he can absolutely smash a hockey puck in half, and does so extremely from dangerous space in my tracking. He's even able to thread passes with his skill in tight areas offensively to create offense for linemates. I've seen some outlets rank him much higher than this and I can absolutely see why. On the other hand, his normal forward skating is atrocious, and problem solving with his skill while moving pucks up the ice is rickety and awkward in my opinion, and he gets exposed defensively often, with awful efficiencies shutting down defensive transitions at the MHL level so far. I have literally no clue what's going to happen in his NHL career, but I do lean towards leaving him in Russia for a number of years, let him keep developing into his frame and getting stronger, and I could see a tremendous offensive forward here. I'd love to see him drop a shoulder and drive into dangerous areas more as he takes low percentage shots from the perimeter more often than most defenders I track, but he just has the puck so, so, so much, and creates so, so much for Loko Yaroslavl to this point.
Martin Misiak may be one of the most underrated players in this draft and I can't wait to see him at the World Juniors. He's fast, skilled, tall, and brings voracious energy to both ends with strong physical numbers, strong transition efficiencies and high rates of offensive turnover generation. He's hounding players constantly, and I think with time and more experience, the offensive skill should come out more than it has. He's on my shortlist for a potential 3rd round pick for Team Scouching this year, but I would be thrilled to add him in the second round if he lands there. He may not be super productive, but in my viewings he's had a few "almost points", and I think with time, he could only get better as a 200-foot forward that endears himself to fans.
There are other players in here I just want to talk about for 4 hours each thanks to how fun they've been to watch. William Whitelaw headlines this group. Whitelaw has as high an upside as anyone outside the top tier in this draft in my opinion. He's ridiculously quick, skilled and agile, with a tendency to try to make high level plays from all over the offensive zone. I do believe he's playing like a player who was able to do whatever they wanted as that kind of player at the prep school level, and is adjusting to the pace and intensity of the USHL. He's clearly trying to do too much out there, put too much on his own place, skating into too much pressure, and jumping into the neutral zone a bit too often and a bit too quickly. His defensive involvement is better than you'd expect, but his lack of strength does factor into some poor results. If you leave him in college for the next 2-3 years, and let him try things out, make plays, and dangle his way into dangerous space as he has in my tracking while cutting down on the overhandling, overthinking and perimeter shooting if he doesn't squeak his way into the middle of the ice, he could be a tremendous NHL player.
The Penticton Vees are hilarious must-watch hockey if you have HockeyTV. They have won 27 games and landed 54 points out of a possible 58. They are a wagon. Bradly Nadeau is the ringleader along with his brother Josh, but my eyes have been firmly trained on 2nd line winger Aydar Suniev, our new god over here at Scouching. Suniev has bounced around a few teams over the years and finally landed with the Vees and has looked outstanding in my viewings. Yes, the skating isn't great and he's not a burner, but his ability to get pucks through traffic all over the ice, he's ability to protect the puck and grind play along the boards, and his release in the offensive zone, even under pressure is remarkable. Bradly Nadeau is faster, but almost across the board, Suniev surpasses Nadeau in my tracked metrics. He's a ton of fun to watch and is shortlisted for one of my 3rd round picks for this year's draft.
There are lots of guys on here that I could talk about forever, so feel free to ask on Twitter or in the comments here and I'll be happy to respond!

Tier 6 - Great Supplementary and Development Options

This is just another group of interesting and curious players that have shown well and could fill out rosters if their development goes well in my view.
Yes, there's Colby Barlow. I just have not seen it with him and see him as more of a secondary powerful scorer in the NHL. He's got a great shot, but in my tracking at 5v5, has not used it much. There isn't much in the way of pass volume or success, and has some of the lowest rates of shot assists and dangerous passes of anyone tracked. He's unsuccessful in many offensive transitions, he relies on pass receptions often, and his defensive success is poor due to slow feet and a skill level that doesn't allow him to knock down pucks in the neutral zone enough. I don't know, maybe every game I've seen have just been his worst, but I don't see a first round prospect there.
I honestly might consider playing Lukas Dragicevic as a winger. The guy with the puck has some good puck protection skill and a pretty decent shot from the point, but at 5v5 his offensive transition results have been poor, especially when relying on passes, his puck distribution in the offensive zone is almost non-existent, and he's by far the least involved defensive transition defender I've tracked... maybe ever, sitting below 2%. I have tracked zero stick checks and zero physical plays in transition all year. Yes, he's scoring, but I think there's a long way to go for NHL upside.
I've been bumping Oscar Fisker Mølgaard up my list all year. He's a brilliant and deceptive thinker in transition and looks not at all out of place in the SHL as a threat in that area of the game. He's a good forwards skater and has driven great results for a player playing pro hockey here and there that could be a mid round pick. He breaks defensive cycles often and applies himself physically with great defensive transition results through excellent stick checks, and could be a great defensive forward at the next level, even if his development doesn't come far enough to make him an offensive threat.
Gracyn Sawchyn and Koehn Ziemmer are similar as well, explaining why they're so close. They're smart, skilled and deceptive puck carriers even if they may lack high end pace and offensive finishing ability. I've got lots of time for these guys to be higher by year's end.
See what I said about William Whitelaw, dial it back a bit and you've got Denver Barkey.
I've seen David Reinbacher ranked significantly higher, but he really reminds me of a dialed back David Jiricek last year. I get the feeling you may have a second pair two-way defender that can shut play down defensively and drive decent offensive transition results. He clearly prefers to rely on passes in transition and is more successful than most, but there's something about him I can't really seem to figure out. I don't see huge upside here, but he could be a guy that could eats minutes I suppose. We'll check in on him soon.
Tom Willander could easily be much higher by the end of the year. He's a stable, modern defensive player who carries great stick checking ability, underrated skill to create pass lanes and move pucks well, with some of the highest pass percentages of any defender tracked this year. His World Junior A Championship performance showcased a lot of these traits and I certainly will have a keen eye on him for the next few months.
Speaking of guys who could be much higher, Felix Nilsson! I didn't have a clue who this guy is, but he is a tenacious, high pace skilled forward that quietly drives great results all over the ice. He's much more of a playmaker than a scorer on his own, but he's got great evasion skill in transition and brings a ton of potential if you're drafting him late.
I've really liked what I've seen of Jaden Lipinski. Big, skilled, evasive, there's lots to like. Joel Henderson mentioned to me that Lipinski feels a little bit like what the Senators want Zack Ostapchuk to be, and honestly I can see where he's coming from. He's got some decent pace, but makes up for a lack of high end pace with great body positioning and resilience that should carry him forward to higher levels. I haven't seen enough of him, but I see how he's a good option this year.
Ignat Lutfullin is another one who was unaware of before the season but it was quickly made clear that of all the players on SKA's second MHL team, he was about the only player that could drive offense. He's had points on over half his team's goals on average, and does so with high pace, great quickness generating speed, and lightning quick cuts to create rushing and passing lanes. There's a great work rate there, and if he continues to fly under the radar, he could be a great late round option.
Sticking with Russians, Gennady Chaly has been a hilarious case study this year for me. He's not the biggest defenseman, and he most definitely is not the best defensive player out there, but he brings a ton of skill and confidence to the position. His transition results are great going both ways, using skill and deception to transport pucks well with pinpoint passes, as well as quickness to carry pucks himself. His pass percentage hovers at a strong 75% in my limited tracking, but his transition pass percentage is not far behind, which is uncommon for most defenders.

Tier 7 - Re-Entries, Longshots, and Ol' Faithfuls

Let's rip the last band-aid off for this preliminary list. I have not seen the high end defender I thought was there in Cam Allen. He has struggled to produce on an admittedly poor Guelph Storm team, but this is a player I've seen leave massive gaps on defensive transitions, struggle to shut down those transitions when he gets involved, and shows very limited involvement in offensive creation relative to the top defensemen in this draft. I do like the forward skating speed he can generate and his willingness to challenge players one on one on entries, but there are just far too many times where he's not really... factoring into play, and I'll be keenly watching to see if his back half alleviates my concerns.
Andrew Strathmann is another really interesting one. He is a guy who in my view wants to play like a high octane, Makar-esque offensive defenseman, but just doesn't have the elite skill, edges, speed or deception that Makar has. If he gets there one day, then yes, he could be a tremendously fun defender to watch, but I've seen a whole lot of heart attack-inducing moments out of Strathmann, especially in the defensive end. He can take too many needless risks without the evasive speed and skill to find space and create a play, but at times, activating from the offensive blueline looks wonderful. I'll keep checking in on him this year and in the future, but he's a fascinating case study.
Beau Akey is all feet, but has trouble building a map of the ice to hit targets better, and I'd love to see more offensive activation at 5v5. He's a mobile and fluid player to watch, so I'll keep an eye on him over the year.
Hoyt Stanley is a really interesting option as well. He's essentially this year's Owen Pickering, just in the WHL and not as gifted with his footwork and evasive skill. When drafted by Everett in the WHL Draft, he was listed at under 5'8", and he's grown to 6'2" in the time since, and in my view looks bigger than that on the ice. He's skilled, fluid on his feet, sends hard passes around the ice, and while his shot differentials aren't great, I think there's potential and would love to see him stretch out his game and challenge opponents a bit more than he does.
Some re-entries are in here now, with Cole Knuble having a strong season, Tyler Duke driving good shot differentials once again as a freshman at Ohio State Univ., and while Kenta Isogai isn't scoring a ton, he's still not playing a ton of minutes and whenever I've caught the Phantoms, he's the active, intense offensive player I always remember. I'd love to see some more strength down the road to manage pressure in close quarters better, but I have a ton of respect for how he plays.
Matthew Soto has also really impressed me this year with strong involvement and being very close to a 2024 eligible. He's the prototypical waterbug almost every shift with good skill and playing at a high pace, but I wonder how much more you're going to get out of him in the next few years. I love how he plays, and there's a longer runway with him considering how young he is, and his style of play is certainly admirable, so I'll check him out more as the year goes on.
Placing someone like Griffin Erdman as high as he is might be surprising to people consindering he's ahead of names like Cam Allen, Gabe Perreault, and Hunter Brzustewicz, but I just love how he plays and drives results all over the ice. His shot differentials are outstanding, he generates dangerous shot attempts from a hard-working style better than almost any forward tracked to this point, and is one of the most involved transition players tracked. He's fast and plays hard everywhere, and I would love to see him develop his puck skill and shot to problem solve on the fly a bit better, and really challenge goaltenders more than he does. Waterloo is a fun team to watch, and he's a major part of that and could be a sleeper for a late round pick if you want a depth energy player.
On the note of Brzustewicz, I just haven't seen a great projection for NHL upside out of him. He's slow, not particularly skilled or deceptive, but has a good ability to protect pucks with his body and open new passing lanes. I've just never been really taken with his game, and like most other players I have lower than average, pace, skill and deception concerns allow other players to sneak their way ahead of these names.
Carter Sotheran is also another player that may be a bit under the radar. He's big, mobile and a crisp passer in transition that he can bring to the offensive zone. I like his deception and there could be a lot to work with over the next few years as a potential minutes eater with offensive tools.
Nick Lardis is fun. Really sneaky, makes plays inside dangerous areas, and he's been directly responsible for a remarkable amount of team offense. Now, a lot of that is Lardis peppering the net from all over the place, but I love the speed and skill in his game with the high quality shot he's got to cap it off.
Magomed Sharakanov closes out the list of ranked players. The skill and confidence is off the charts, and he's basically playing forward from the backend when I've seen him. He will challenge players one on one, drive deep into the offensive zone and just try to humiliate all comers. Does it work? Not every time, not super often even, but he's just a ton of fun to watch, and when it does work, he brings great joy.

The Watchlist

The Watchlist is just a group of guys who I've liked watching, but am not really ready to rank them fully and have been a fan of. I don't want to forget these guys and they're also nice long term bets that I may push for as a late round pick.
Alexander Suvorov is shifty and can rip a hockey puck, and probably should've been drafted. He's neat!
I've really liked Dylan Hryckowian as a re-entry after going undrafted out of prep school last year. He's got as much of a motor as anyone else, he's hounding guys all over the ice, brings really good skill and great finishing ability around the net. I haven't tracked him a ton, but I could easily see him being on my final board by season's end as a potential depth player.
On that note, Arvid Bergstrom is another guy I haven't tracked a ton but really like what I see. He's very skilled and fluid on his feet, if not the quickest or most agile player available. He looked great at the Junior A championship, and I'll have to take another look soon.
Staying in Sweden, Kristian Kostadinski is a huge defender with good skill and pass lane creation ability. He's a passive player, but picks his spots defensively well and can certainly bring the physicality.
The Church of Larry Keenan is being constructed in Indiana as we speak. This guy isn't the best skater, but it doesn't matter so long as you get the puck to him in the offensive zone. He will make smash. Make big, big smash. As such, he drives high involvement and provides a ton of offense for his team.
Tomas Simonsen is playing in the French pro league, and similar to a guy like Hryckowian, he's a high energy undersized skill player who has cracked the French national team this year with four points in five exhibition games after an enormous U20 season last year playing for his country. It's also very funny that he played one game for Amiens' farm club in the third division and scored ten points. A longshot, but fun to watch.
I really like the flow and intensity of Brandon Svoboda's game, and he's had some moments that really make me feel like his production could regress positively with his combination of pace, speed and physical play.
Matthew Mania has been on my list all year, even if he's fallen from the higher end. I love the skill and he's got a great release on his wrist shot, but the defensive game and pass work leaves a ton to be desired. I've got games of his to catch up on, but I like him as a potential late round skill-first selection.
Charlie Cerrato might be the most underrated NTDP player this year, but I may have just seen some great games of him playing at the Five Nations. He's fast, protects pucks well and attacks the middle well. I'll be checking in a few more times before teh end of the year.
Grayden Siepmann should've been drafted this year. He should be drafted this year. He's skilled and creative, drives play up the ice well, and brings great four-way mobility.

Thank you for reading over my thoughts on these impressive players. It's going to be an exciting class to say the least, and there are tons of guys I'm really excited about. I imagine this will look quite a bit different by year's end, but it's always fun to put out a cross-section of where my head is at. As always, have a happy holiday season, enjoy the time off, and I'll see you all in 2023! In the meantime, the World Juniors are coming, and they are going to be a doozy, I think. Lots of draft eligibles, and plenty of returning players that could electrify hockey fans all over the world. If you'd like to read my World Junior writeup, click here.

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