The 2019 Scouching Mock Draft

The Recap

Gut 1 - New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes - C
Brain 1 - New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes - C

Gut 2 - New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain 2 - New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko - RW

Gut 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte - C
Brain 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte - C

Gut 4 - Colorado Avalanche - Kirby Dach - C
Brain 4 - Colorado Avalanche - Kirby Dach

Gut 5 - Los Angeles Kings - Dylan Cozens - C
Brain 5 - Los Angeles Kings - Bowen Byram - D

Gut 6 - Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain 6 - Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras - C/W

Gut 7 - Buffalo Sabres - Bowen Byram - D
Brain 7 - Buffalo Sabres - Dylan Cozens - C

Gut 8 - Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain 8 - Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs - LW

Gut 9 - Anaheim Ducks - Vasili Podkolzin - RW
Brain 9 - Anaheim Ducks - Alex Newhook - C

Gut 10 - Vancouver Canucks - Alex Newhook - C
Brain 10 - Vancouver Canucks - Cole Caufield - C/LW

Gut 11 - Philadelphia Flyers - Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain 11 - Philadelphia Flyers - Vasili Podkolzin - RW

Gut 12 - Minnesota Wild - Spencer Knight - G
Brain 12 - Minnesota Wild - Ryan Suzuki - C

Gut 13 - Florida Panthers - Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain 13 - Florida Panthers - Arthur Kaliyev - RW

Gut 14 - Arizona Coyotes - Cam York - D
Brain 14 - Arizona Coyotes - Matthew Boldy - LW

Gut 15 - Montreal Canadiens - Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain 15 - Montreal Canadiens - Cam York - D

---

After publishing this first version, I realize I totally left out Cole Caufield from the gut picks until 16. My hunch is that his size was a factor because NHL, but it seems teams are seeing the forest through the trees on him. I would bet Caufield is gone by the time the 10th pick is made, but he is very tiny, so you never know.

Let's cut right to the chase. Congratulations to the St. Louis Blues/Boston Bruins for their wonderful Stanley Cup victory yadda yadda yadda. Here's the rest of the mock draft!

---

#16 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Cole Caufield - RW
​Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

Gutsplanation: Honestly if the draft allows Cole Caufield to fall to 16, I may need to move to Colorado. He's only gotten more and more attention from teams down the stretch after a record-setting U18 tournament, but his size may push him a bit further than he should go. It's extremely unlikely and a great example of how narratives can shift.
Brainsplanation: I see this pick as Colorado's "found wallet" pick, and I think they value the analytics that favour Brink. They can afford to be patient while he sorts out the skating, but I love the intensity and attitude he brings to the game. His skill, vision and goal scoring ability are all exceptional, and if he can figure out his top speed, he could be a huge steal. You usually can't screw up at 4th overall, so you may as well swing at 16.

---

#17 - Vegas Golden Knights
Gut: Tobias Björnfot - D
​Brain: Ville Heinola - D

Gutsplanation: I see a number of defensemen coming off the board in middle of the round. The top end is full of centres and skilled wingers, but there are many solid defensemen available that should be available in this range. The Golden Knights have a relatively strong prospect pipeline, even if they lack the high end potential of NIck Suzuki and Erik Brannström. I think Vegas heads to Sweden and takes a potential offensive defenseman in Björnfot. His skating is solid, he's willing to shoot, and his two-way play is well refined. Of all the defenders available here, he may have the best combination of a reliably solid floor with a reasonably high ceiling. I also wonder about Erik Brannström's former teammate Simon ​Holmström and Vegas.
Brainsplanation: ​While Björnfot is a solid pick, I've really liked Heinola the more I've watched of him. He produced well in the FInnish Liiga, he was reliable for his age in both ends, and he has some really interesting skill. Vegas has never dipped into Finland, but Heinola could be a good start.

---

#18 - Dallas Stars
Gut: Ville Heinola - D
​Brain: Connor McMichael - C

Gutsplanation: I'm a fan of Heinola and I think it's perfectly possible Dallas goes back to Finland and drafts the slippery two-way defender. I think there's a lot of potential with Heinola if his skating can take a step, and considering the lengths his game has gone this year, that could be a good bet.
Brainsplanation: McMichael might be one of the more underrated offensive centres in this draft. He led the London Knights in scoring and made his play in the offensive zone look effortless. He can make a play as well as he scores goals, he gets a ton of chances from dangerous areas, and he often flashes his speed in transition. He was somewhat inconsistent, especially in his own end, but he has some real upside that could round out some excellent centre depth in Dallas down the road.

---

#19 - Ottawa Senators
Gut: Moritz Seider - D
​Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

Gutsplanation: Seider is probably the biggest wild card and I have zero clue what he could turn into. He's a big, right hand shot with good mobility and played against men full time. He shined in the World Juniors Division 1A tournament, and played for his country at the World Championships a month after turning 18. That sounds like a recipe for a defensively shallow NHL team with questionable leadership to give an interesting defender who has a longer resume than most other 1st round picks a heck of an opportunity. I think Seider will need time to develop, but he's got a resume, he's in everyone's mind, and Ottawa needs pretty much anything, and fast.
Brainsplanation: ​If you want to be patient, which you probably should, Björnfot is a really interesting profile who may not have the resume of Seider, but brings more of an upside that is easier to picture. I like his game in both ends and his willingness to attack the net with his shot.

---

#20 - New York Rangers
Gut: Philip Broberg - D
​Brain: Moritz Seider - D

Gutsplanation: The Rangers took K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist in 2018, and after taking Kappo Kakko and VItali Kravtsov, I would think they "need" a centre more than they "need" another defender, but this is a pick you got for moving Kevin Hayes to the 1st round eliminated Winnipeg Jets. This is found money. I don't think there's anyone left at 20 in this draft with as much raw upside as Broberg. Yes, his defensive play is questionable, his power, skating ability, and passing vision in the neutral and offensive zone could turn him into something quite special. I'm certainly skeptical, but if I'm the Rangers, I aim for the biggest upside, regardless of risk, and if Broberg works, a defense group of Adam Fox, Miller, Broberg, and Lundkvist could be a real pain. 
Brainsplanation: ​In my brain, the thinking is the same. This pick is found money. Take your swing. If Seider is here at 20, he's got more of a different kind of upside. Like Lundkvist, he's mobile and reliable. With his combination of skills, a little patience could do Seider very well.

---

#21 - Pittsburgh Penguins
Gut: Bobby Brink - RW
​Brain: Victor Söderström - D

Gutsplanation: Pittsburgh had four picks in last year's draft. Calen Addison, Filip Hallander, and Justin Almeida being three of them indicates to me that they swing on production, and per-dollar value on the pick. Addison and Hallander had no business falling to where they did in 2018, and I believe Brink is in the same boat. He's feisty, skilled, and just gets the job done. The Penguins have developed winger after winger into guys who get the job done, and Brink could be the best one yet. Brink brings tremendous value at 21, and I imagine Jim Rutherford isn't too concerned with his skating considering some of the names he's brought into Pittsburgh.
Brainsplanation: ​I'm a big Victor Söderström fan, especially when it comes to his skating and reliability. I just don't feel there's a huge ceiling there. A lot of the higher ceiling players are gone before this pick, but Söderström does bring value at #21. His mobility hints at upside, but his production hasn't been great, and I haven't been tremendously impress in my viewings with just how exciting of a player he is. I think he's an NHL player one day, but may be more of a reliable minutes eater, which is something the Penguins might like to have on an ELC down the road.

---

#22 - LA Kings
Gut: Thomas Harley - D
​Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

Gutsplanation: I'm much cooler on Harley than most, and I think teams might be spooked by his "just okay" U18 and his metrics in his own end last season with Mississauga. I like his mobility, I like his passing ability, but his decision making can take time, and he can be absent in the defensive end. His offensive metrics are excellent on paper, but much of his production was secondary assists or power play points. There's upside, so LA using their second 1st round pick on a higher upside player seems reasonable.
Brainsplanation: ​I appreciated Tomasino's game the more I watched him. I don't see huge upside, but I see a maturity and subtlety to his game that you don't often see in guys his age. His scoring rates and impacts on goals for and against were very solid, and I think he fits the Kings' approach to the game well. Solid possession player, responsible on the ice, plays with determination and has offensive ability. Someone like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty make good mentors for Tomasino and Byram after this draft.

---

#23 - New York Islanders
Gut: Philip Tomasino - C
​Brain: Philip Broberg - D

Gutsplanation: Lou Lamoriello went with pure upside last year with Dobson and Wahlstrom, surprising nobody. This year, I feel he's going to go with a more "Lou-esque" pick. Tomasino just feels like a player the Devils would've drafted in the late 1st in years prior. He's responsible, has a good offensive game, and plays a refined style that the Islanders might really like. He doesn't have the upside of a Matt Barzal, but he would be a solid option at 23 with some nice upside.
Brainsplanation: ​Or Lou could go "full send" and pick the guy dropping down the conventional board. Broberg has huge upside and would be a nice pickup at 23. His mobility and power can excite fans and with solid defense depth on the Island in 2019, he can take his time working out his issues and slowly work his way into the lineup. 

---

#24 - Nashville Predators
Gut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW
​Brain: ​Jakob Pelletier - LW

Gutsplanation: Someone is going to take the risk on the massive upside of Arthur Kaliyev. Somehow I feel that the Predators are going to pull a Tolvanen and go with the Uzbek-American winger. I've really liked Kaliyev the more I've seen and I find the concerns about him somewhat overblown. The only limit will be how far his brain takes him. I don't see him as a quarterback of a line, but as a pure scoring winger, he could be a huge get in Nashville. The organization feels like a fit for Kaliyev's approach to the game and his personality. They might want a defender like Harley here, but I bet Kaliyev would get a good long look here.
Brainsplanation: ​Nashville seems to like energy guys like Ryan Hartman, and Jakob Pelletier absolutely brings that kind of energy to the game. Playing on a fantastic line in Moncton inflated some scoring on his part, but he was heavily relied upon as an aggressive power winger that reminded me a bit of Brendan Gallagher. He had high and medium shots exceptionally often and could be a very exciting complimentary energy player one day.

---

#25 - Washington Capitals
Gut: Victor Söderström - D
​Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

Gutsplanation: The Capitals drafted Alexander Alexeyev last year, and the cupboard is still quite bare. Söderström brings a higher floor player that Washington could value coming out of this draft. There's higher upside available, but Söderström has nice tools that Washington could mold into a solid two-way defender, especially with names like Nick Jensen sticking around.
Brainsplanation: ​Upside, Upside, Upside. Robertson was a remarkably consistent scorer in a big role with Peterborough. I love his skill and offensive creativity. He's one of the youngest players available in the draft and had what would have been a top D-1 season if he were less than a week older. I think over time he'll play with a bit more confidence as he gets stronger and older. Washington can afford to be patient, even if their cupboard is relatively bare and Robertson could pay tremendous dividends one day.

---

#26 - Calgary Flames
Gut: Nicholas Robertson - LW
​Brain: Thomas Harley - D

Gutsplanation: The Flames are always drafting skill, and Robertson brings tons. Someone like Connor McMichael or Nils Höglander might be an option here as well, but I think Calgary has really liked the progression their undersized scoring players (Pettersen, Phillips, even Koumontzis) have had, and swinging on more of that with high upside could be an interesting move. 
Brainsplanation: ​For the same reasons as outlined above, and Calgary has developed plenty of defensemen recently. Harley would be in one of the best groups of defenders for a rookie to learn from, and if he irons out his defensive issues, he could be a nice piece of the future.   

---

#27 - Tampa Bay Lightning
Gut: Connor McMichael - C
​Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

​Gutsplanation: Tampa under Julien Brisbois will be an interesting one to watch as this is his first career first round pick as GM of the Lightning. 2018 second round pick Gabe Fortier was an undersized scoring winger who had a very nice follow-up season with Baie-Comeau, but I feel like they're looking for a centre or a defender here. McMichael feels like the best fit considering his offensive potential and flashes of great speed up the ice.  
Brainsplanation: ​I imagine this pick is traded for cap relief, but who knows. Brisebois could just as easily go with a different variety of scoring winger and head back to Quebec to pick the big heavy offensive winger from Sherbrooke. His team wasn't great, but he kept climbing my board all year. He's got great possession ability and flashes of solid skating, but he plays with a lot of power in his game. He could physically dominate the QMJHL in the next few years, but he doesn't rely solely on his strength to earn his production. I think there's good upside with Poulin, which Tampa is never afraid of, regardless of position.

---

#28 - Carolina Hurricanes
Gut: Jakob Pelletier - LW
​Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

Gutsplanation: Carolina supposedly loves their analytics. Pelletier jumps off the page in the analytics world, even if you control for his line's quality. Might not be the straw that stirs the line's drink, but he plays an important role that I think Don Waddell and other hockey men would really like. He wouldn't be a bad pick here, and Carolina can fit Pelletier in their deep cupboards as a higher floor option that they can be patient with.
Brainsplanation: ​Carolina suppoesdly loves their analytics. Höglander played in the SHL all year and produced quite well. His skill is gross, his "fun" level on the ice is awesome, and if he's given some time to work out the kinks defensively and push possession a bit better against men, he could be a ton of fun. Carolina does have the option to try and bring Höglander over to the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers  immediately a la Martin Necas. I like Höglander a ton, and Carolina taking the chance on his upside would be a very interesting experiment for  The Jerks.

---

#29 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Nils Höglander - LW
​Brain: ​Jamieson Rees - C

Gutsplanation: They swung on a lot of defense in 2018 and swung on another one with Bowen Byram in 2019. I think a high-upside scoring winger could do them well down the line and Höglander fits that. He's skilled, slippery and could be a great player for Jeff Skinner to work with.
Brainsplanation: ​​The Ducks clearly love drafting energy and antagonism. Guys with skill alongside a more aggressive game. Rees is a high skill, high offense centre who plays really hard all of the time. If he can keep his head on straight and play more of a leader's role in Sarnia over time, he could be something. His U18 was excellent and he may go earlier than this pick, but he could be a great swing at 30 for Anaheim.

---

#30 - Boston Bruins
Gut: Jamieson Rees - C
​Brain: Albin Grewe - ​C/RW

Gutsplanation: The Sabres drafted a ton of big, scary defensemen last year and one actually very good defender in Rasmus Dahlin. They still need more, and with their previous pick being an upside-heavy skilled winger, Johnson sounds like an interesting fit for Buffalo here. He brings a sense of calm and pace to the game and can break up transitions exceptionally well. His scoring rates were good at even strength and I'm excited to see where he goes with his career. He's reliable, has flashes of great mobility, plays with a bit of an edge and has excellent skill for a defender. You could do a lot worse with your third first round pick.
Brainsplanation: He's basically the Swedish Brad Marchand. He's feisty, skilled, and really needs to keep a lid on things staying out of the box. Involved himself in over 35% of Djurgardens' junior team's goals, which was the highest for all draft eligible SuperElit forwards. He was used in a 4th line role in the SHL and showed that he might have been a bit in over his head, but he plays with tremendous energy and brings a nice skillset with him.

---

#31 - ​Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Ryan Johnson - D
​Brain: Spencer Knight - G

Gutsplanation: See the above writeup about Rees. He's a perfect fit for the Bruins. It's almost a no-brainer.
Brainsplanation: ​You know what's better than having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen? Having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Spencer Knight. The Sabres with their two late 1st round picks have a chance to take a swing on the most hyped goaltending prospect available this season. I like Knight's calmness and confidence that he brings to the game, but I'm skeptical of his talent ability. Goaltenders are weird to project however, and while Knight doesn't stop as many pucks as I would hope, with three first round picks, you can afford to take a bit of a risk on the goalie everyone won't stop talking about.

---

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned in the post-lottery mock draft. None of these are likely to actually happen. Teams have a lot going on that we have no idea about, and they all will view players differently. I think finding the right fit is pivotal to success in the 1st round, especially in this year's draft once the twelfth or thirteenth picks go by. This draft feels a bit weaker than usual, but there are certainly interesting risks to take. It'll come down to just how risky teams want to be.

Please let me know how you feel about your favourite team's picks and the analysis behind them!