Scouching’s Final 2025 NHL Draft Rankings
At last we meet again, hockey fans. The 2025 NHL Draft might be one of the craziest and unpredictable ones in recent memory. Things open up extremely quickly, and team philosophy is going to shine through the typical “best player available” discussion almost immediately. The strategy in the NHL is in flux these days and it seems like teams are trying to get on top of it, especially now that the fast, physical and intense Florida Panthers are repeat Stanley Cup Champions, and doing so in largely convincing fashion. Personally I’ve really refined what I look for in players and really do focus on what works in the playoffs. The best in the world play their best when everything is on the line and the nature of the game shifts to something arguably more chaotic and off-puck focused, and the margins can be so small that winning a key battle could mean the difference between winning a series and elimination. I always caution to not try to actively chase something another team has already nailed down, as passing on some very useful talent in favor of something you need can really hamstring your team and leave you wishing you had more offense. That said, this year is a year absolutely jammed full of solid, effective and physical players that can play up the middle of the ice or complement your best players on the wings. There are players with offensive upside but they come with risks. In my opinion, success in the NHL often comes from having a clear strategy with well defined and achievable goals, and filling your staff and lineup who are all devoted to that strategy to maximize buy-in. Look up and down Florida’s roster and look at all the guys who were castoffs from other teams. Sure, Florida has a few picks of their own on the roster, but depth makes all the difference in the playoffs, and their depth played into their strategy perfectly and credit should be given to their management and research staff for being able to put these guys in a great position to succeed. Being creative and sticking to a strong, cohesive strategy matters tremendously in sports, and as such, what I personally value in a player has changed drastically over the last few years.
Some say this class is “weak” but I think there are a lot of names that have a good developmental ceiling as well as others with strong, physically capable floors that might be able to hang in the NHL for a time. Superstars, I’m not so sure, at least it’s tough to see easily, but players? There might be players abound this year.
Before we get into the list, it might be helpful to take the time to briefly outline my philosophy so you can get in my head a little bit and understand where I come from a little better when I see the game. If you take 10 different evaluators, you’ll probably get some differences in priorities and preferences, so knowing what you’re getting into should add to the experience. At my core, I focus on possession. Hockey is a game in two fundamental states. You have the puck, or you don’t. The ultimate goal should be to find players who are as good at gaining and maintaining possession in some way, getting the puck into a desirable location, and getting the dang thing into the net as much as possible. In my view, the priority should be in that order. You can’t have the third aspect without the second, and you can’t have the second without the first. As such, I see speed, tenacity, competitiveness, and quickness as key, both mentally and physically. I don’t care so much about how big you are, how good of a shooter you are, how hard you hit, I just care about what you do on the ice and if you’re moving the needle in the right direction. In my experience, the best young needle movers with regards to competitiveness, pace, and creativity are the ones of who are often hardest to find when they grow up big and strong to be NHL players one day. I value players who elevate who they play with more than anything. They’re dependable every shift, they're focused on the ultimate task of the game situation, and they think creatively to make baby steps happen that ultimately lead to scoring chances, and ideally some goals go in here and there.
I’ll also note that the positions listed are almost universally those from the games I’ve specifically watched and tracked of these players. A defenseman is listed by either handedness or the side of the ice they play on should it be the opposite to his natural shooting side (i.e., RSD is a left handed defender playing on the right side).
Thank you all so much for your support and attention for another great season here at Scouching. It’s a pleasure to be back for my first full season since my recent hiatus, and we’re going to be back bigger than ever next season!
Don’t miss our NHL Draft Live Shows starting at 6:30pm EST on June 27 and 11:30am EST on June 28 and catch every pick with myself and a cast of characters. See you there, and enjoy!
Tier 1 - Same as it Ever Was
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Some have questioned Schaefer’s claim to the first slot due to his injury issues, but watching my saved video on him from his performances this season really captured just how special this player could be. He’s explosive, dynamic, smart with the puck, more than capable off the puck on the rush, and has size and youth that only bode well for his development curve. He’s been at #1 on my list since around the first week after returning to the OHL, with a strong final month of performances really solidifying just how good a player Schaefer is. I would’ve loved to have seen him in Erie’s surprising playoff run, but any concerns were vanquished on reflection. He’d by my #1 and is a great part to augment the future of any NHL team. A real Dougie Hamilton-type with great offensive tools that really go a long way to patch up his issues here and there with pushing for offense a little bit too quickly and losing a battle along the boards here and there. He drags defenses around the ice with ease, passes and carries the puck with the best of them, and brings so much to the game that anyone could benefit from. A true modern offensive defenseman that in the right system could be absolutely lethal.
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An injury at the end of the season hampered Misa’s showings in the playoffs and having seen a few of those games, they were less than ideal. That said, Misa is still not too far off from Schaefer in his mastery of understanding the game and picking opponents apart. He makes his plays creatively and quickly, is faster on his feet than you might expect, has an excellent feel for off-puck positioning and anticipation, and can chain his plays together in succession unlike many in the draft class. His ability to work off of pressure, find passing plays through traffic, swing across the ice to change lanes and get a different look at his surroundings, it all projects so well to higher levels and assuming his late season injury isn’t some long term issue, there is huge upside with Misa. If he’s gone anywhere later than this in the actual draft, I would be shocked but not particularly surprised, as his physical game isn’t quite up to par with some others, and it can leave him reliant on the quality of his linemates in order to set the table for him, but boy is he every a great restaurant manager once the tables are set.
Tier 2 - Potential Key Pieces
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If nothing else, James Hagens will be a fascinating experiment in if traditional smaller, slighter skilled players can still crack it at a high level in the NHL. To his credit, Hagens’ physical game grew immensely, especially after his World Junior Championship victory. He seemed passive, worse under pressure, and cautious with the puck, but you still saw the quick feet, the skill level, and the playmaking potential. His pace of play ramped up, his physical metrics went from 0 to humongous-big, and his passing got quicker and more precise. Hagens may not have had the production people expected, but in my view he was a bit too relied upon to be the principal puck carrier while on the ice, which made him a key target for opposing defenses. He still needs to learn how to penetrate the middle of the ice more, get more scoring chances for himself, and still gain a step of agility and creativity to get around pressure at higher levels, but the ceiling is huge and he’s a prime target of hyperanalysis that might plop him down the draft a few too many slots. There are questions, but in my view those questions got answered more and more as the season went on, especially considering how strong his World Junior performance was while we’re all talking about who shined at a more recent tournament played against other children.
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Does everyone forget just how good Eklund was for his national team in Ottawa this year? I sure don’t. This kid might not be a Top-10 pick strictly off of his size, and potentially a bit of limited offensive upside at the NHL level, but in my opinion we’re in the game of picking players you win games with. Eklund’s style of play is relentless energy, strong skating ability and a lightning quick shot that he uses almost too often from too many spots. He played a big role on getting his team back into the SHL for next season and looked pretty darn good doing it. Agile, selfless, creative, and admirable, Eklund may not be quite the offensive performer his brother is in the NHL, but I look at players like Artturi Lehkonen, Marcus Johansson, or Evan Rodrigues, and see similarities there. All of those players have been very, very important unheralded parts of very long playoff runs, and bring plenty of value to the NHL game. Eklund may just be the next one that just goes out and plays the game harder than anyone and gets all the benefits from his work. I’d love to see some improved dynamic play with the puck in the offensive zone, setting up plays for linemates more and generating more for others rather than his perimeter chances, but he shows flashes of being able to do that without question.
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I just keep going back and seeing so, so much upside with Potter. Lots of people rightfully see a questionable upside with regards to his puck management and pass vision, but good lord he is one of the most exciting players available once the first few picks go off the board. An insanely strong combination of speed and skill, Potter’s shooting ability and pace of play work in conjunction to create a lethal individual player in almost every facet of the game. Playing big minutes up the middle of ASU’s offense is no easy task, and he didn’t have the luxury of multiple top 30 NHL picks as linemates. Potter is a player who I believe will only rise to meet the level of competition ahead of him with faster, strong linemates with better finishing ability, but he is not without faults. An elite puck carrier, he can look off easier pass lanes at times and cause turnovers. His defensive awareness of passing lanes is a work in progress, but for a small centre who is 17 and in the NCAA, that is probably understandable. His physical play will never be a hallmark but it is something that needs to be explored further. That said, I can only imagine how much Potter would’ve laid waste to the USHL or CHL this season. I remember watching Logan Cooley at this age, and I simply cannot picture him being better than Potter had he been an NCAA centre in his draft year. I love his potential, and I’m positive he’ll be gone much later in the draft than he should go.
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There are legitimate questions surrounding Martone’s translatability to the NHL. His size, skill, pass vision and shot quality all go hand in hand to make a lethal offensive force in junior, but the pace of his game fluctuates heavily, the agility and evasion under pressure is questionable, and he isn’t putting his opponents on their heels on the rush as much as I’d like to see in a high end NHL prospect, but I just see so much potential with Martone. He makes excellent reads around the ice, driving exceptional results in so many areas, with excellent dual-threat offensive ability, and a willingness to forecheck and play physical hockey that should only get better as he matures. He’s a great kid with great ability who knows his faults and is working to address them. As a less heavy hitting winger in the draft than the heavier skilled centres available, Martone may slip a bit this year, but I think you’re getting a player who could develop into a gifted offensive playmaker with size, puck protection ability and skill that could take on anyone all over the ice.
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A player I’ve been up and down on all season long, I think I’ve settled on a solid foundation on what Frondell is. He’s the best option this year for a player who can play with just about anyone anywhere in a lineup and get the job done. Physical, fluid, smart, Frondell thrives when the game is chaotic. He battles for pucks along the boards well, makes plays quickly, fills empty space constantly, and while his analytical picture was not good, it was much better when his role was somewhat more restricted. I mean that in a positive way, to be clear. If you’re expecting a top-6 centre who will carry you to Stanley Cups and win trophies along the way, I’m not sure that’s Frondell, but as a guy who plays on the wing with those players, I could absolutely see. A capable centre you could stick down your lineup in a checking F3 role with a green light to shoot, sure. On the other hand, a flexible, powerful and physical winger who plays heavy with an offensive twist that can work off faster, more skilled and dynamic high end talent, that’s an Anton Frondell I can see playing a lot of minutes one day in the NHL. Development can change that, but based on what he’s shown this season, I’ve come to really respect the flexibility and projectability of his game, even if he may have more mixed results than most when zooming out to the big picture.
Tier 3 - The Blob
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Welcome to The Blob. The place where everyone in this range could go in any order of any kind and I would understand it. Leading the way is the guy who surprised me the most watching back the video I had on him this year, and one of the players I’ve enjoyed the most in my two seasons of seeing him. Eric Nilson has a foundation of smarts and skill that could’ve bumped him up a tier, honestly. I’ve seen this guy try to throw opponents into a bench, make plays as quickly as anyone, and be arguably one of the best puck managing forwards in this class not named Michael Misa. His shooting instincts and raw ability needs work to say the least, but almost everything else is high-end, and the only question mark is that he needs to get stronger. I’ve said for months he’ll only be as good as he is strong at higher levels. One of the lowest BMI’s in the class at the high end, but not a short player indicates good potential development which gives me confidence. He looked strong in his limited time against men, and it’s no surprise to me that a program as prestigious as Michigan State would look at a player as physical, energetic and intelligent as Nilson. He’s this high on my board simply because I compared my notes, data and video against others here one at a time and he just kept looking like the more interesting option than all of them, and I’m trusting my gut on this one, even if there are conditions on him hitting his upside.
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Part of my philosophy includes setting aside “risk” in return for upside and talent scarcity. Lakovic is a rare package of length, skating ability, creativity and finishing ability that you don’t really see all that often. Right off the hop, he’s a player that undershoots his physical potential, especially on the forecheck and in the defensive zone, which are issues that will need to be fixed, but if he earns a coach’s trust, look out. He's a smart kid who has really gone out of his way to study how to adapt to what’s in front of him, with strong skating edges to protect the puck and penetrate through opponents. For the faults he has, he still found ways to generate excellent results on a team that didn’t have great results as a whole. Nobody in the class at this level broke 45% involvement in team offense outside of Lakovic. Generally that’s a pretty good trend. I can imagine he goes later than he should, and I can see why, but depending how far he slips, I can’t say I would agree with the concerns past a certain point.
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I’m never not impressed by Zonnon when he’s on the ice, and I’m relatively confident he has just as much claim to being a great pick this year as any other big, physical centres that are available. The thing I love about Zonnon relative to the others available is the pace of his game. Sure, he isn’t the most beautiful skater out there, but he is absolutely not slow, and absolutely not without skill. Zonnon combines his energy with some really smart pass vision that allows him to command the middle of the ice well, and he has generated some of the best forechecking results of anyone in my data tracking. He only seemed to get more and more comfortable controlling play from the centre position as the year went on, driving more and more pucks to the net, and attacking defenses better and better. Asking around, his projectability as a centre is a bit of a question, which I can understand, but he has one of the strongest floors in the class. He’s competitive, intense, and makes multiple plays in quick succession to drive play well. The more he wants to be involved the better he’ll get at 5v5, and compared to some of the guys a little later than this slot that I’m sure people will question my sanity about, Zonnon just seems to fit the quick, chaotic world of the modern NHL a bit better than the others with the physicality and energy to push back against any opponent.
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In a similar vein to Bill Zonnon, the modern NHL is quick and chaotic, and a player I continuously believe is maximized when the game is at it’s quickest is Michal Svrcek. An impressive skater with relentless energy, Svrcek worked his way onto his men’s team and stuck, playing solid minutes for months at a time. I feel his U18 production undershot just how good he was there in my view, and if we’re talking NHL capability and floor, Svrcek is right there with the best of The Blob. He has an excellent shot that I’d love to see used from better spots in the SHL, and he has an insane off-puck work rate that suppresses opponents constantly. He absolutely has work to do, as he can overskate himself into problems, and he needs to learn to vary his pace of play a bit more often to get other looks on the ice, but in a north/south world of hockey where your forecheck is what seems to matter tremendously, Svrcek stands out. He certainly needs to get stronger on his feet to have more defensive zone impact, but he’s an annoying, pesky winger with energy all over the ice. Of all the draft eligibles that showed up in the SHL this year, he was the most impressive in many aspects, and to me that counts for something way more valuable than where he’s slated to go in the actual draft. Again, watching my video on him back relative to others in this group, it’s extremely close, but I believe in his floor and track record playing against men just a hair more than those behind him.
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Achilles injury aside, Bear is a similar story to the names ahead of him. Energy, physicality, forechecking ability and quick execution of ideas are the name of the game for Bear. He’s tall, aggressive, and skilled which automatically makes him an intriguing profile to watch. I will admit his ability to take over a shift or game is a bit of a question mark, but he strikes me in a similar way that Anton Frondell has. A great compliment to some better play drivers with upside to be more than he is. A really strong floor of competitiveness and skill, Bear has flashed some remarkable moments that if he can bring in a bit more of a complete, evasive manner moving forward, could be quite a pickup, especially if teams are sketched out by the injury and we see him available a bit later than this range.
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Another high floor player, Brady Martin is going to be an interesting one to track. It seems as though he’s going to be a Top 5 pick in this draft, which on the surface seems completely insane to me, but alternatively, I do see the logic. He’s competitive, a great hitter, a smart passer all over the ice, and has driven great results in almost every metric I track. For me, the skating and skill combination just has a long way to go to develop the kind of ceiling I like in a Top 5 pick. To others, I can absolutely accept the logic that there is a greater chance of James Hagens or Porter Martone struggling to live up to their draft slot than there is of Brady Martin, and Martin brings a highly projectable floor that is likely to still be a valuable part of an NHL team. In the right role with the right linemates, Martin could be a tremendous 3rd line centre, but could James Hagens play that kind of role? Probably not. It all comes down to how you value and perceive talent, and while I think Martin has a ways to go to catch up to those at the top of my board, it isn’t impossible, and if he does, he could be a serious two-way issue for whoever he plays against. If he can further refine his willingness and ability to work towards the net in the offensive zone for better scoring chances, then the sky is the limit for Martin, it’ll just be a matter of how far he can get from here, and how far the more skilled and dynamic players can get on their end. There may be a good lesson for me here if Martin is drafted at the top of the class and turns into the next physically dominant 200-foot centre in the class.
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O’Brien is just a really, really solid hockey player through and through. Skilled, smart, a selfless transition playmaker with a wiry frame and plenty of potential, O’Brien may well be gone significantly earlier than my slot for him. I just haven’t quite seen the same level of energy and pace of play out of him that I have with him as I have of those ahead of him. His passing ability and puck protection make him a pretty strong NHL bet, but to me he invites a lot of pressure on himself with his decisions and confidence. That’s fine, but it’s much more difficult to get away with in the NHL and his offensive upside may be somewhat limited because of it. That said, he plays how you need players to play in the NHL, and has the frame to do it. I wouldn’t look at O’Brien in the top ten, but with his floor and smarts, there’s a strong foundation to work on. He doesn’t waste his shooting opportunities and he sets up linemates well, but I still remain a bit reserved about just how much of a needle-moving player he is at the highest level.
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Once the puck gets into the offensive zone, there might not be a better playmaker or smarter scorer in the draft class. If he goes Top 5, that’s what you’re getting, along with what appears to be a great interview. Desnoyers is a player who just goes out and generates results over and over and over again and has thrived this season surrounded by heavy, intense physical linemates in Julius Sumpf and Juraj Pekarcik. He’s been deployed up the middle and along the wing, and he does bring a level of flexibility that can go with just about anyone he plays with. Desnoyers brings strong physical intent to his game with somewhat mixed results but the big thing that puts him here for me is his offensive skills translating to the NHL. He’s an exceptionally smart playmaker to say the least, but his skating and skill combination trails the names ahead, especially outside the offensive zone, and his physicality is solid but against the best in the world, it’s a bit of a question mark as he lacks the intensity and pace of play that others seem to have. The wrinkle added at the end of the season of the multiple wrist injuries is a bit of a wrench to consider. Has he been undershooting his true abilities all season? Was an underwhelming Memorial Cup just everything coming to a head? From what I’ve seen of Desnoyers all season going back to last year, I still remain a little bit skeptical of his potential, but hey, if he’s been really playing hurt all season long and still drove results like he did on the ice, a team picks him as high as 2 or 3 and he turns out to be an exceptional two-way top six centre, then so be it! There are just quite a few questions I’ve had for too long that has kept him lower on my list than where many others currently have him.
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The first solid, steady defenseman, and one who has only gotten better and better over the course of the year. Logan Hensler had a slow, cautious start to the NCAA season and a bit of a tepid World Junior tournament, but in the time since, Hensler has taken strong steps in the right direction towards being a valuable, all situations defender with skating ability, offensive creativity, smart, safe transition passing, and an ability to keep play to the outside often enough to work fine in the NCAA. He needs to generate more power from his lower body on transitions and along the boards as players could drive him wide and beat him clean down low, or win physical battles against him, but these are things you can work on. Hensler is a player that just brings a solid team game that works off of others well, and marches the game in the right direction more often than not. Other defenders have simply shown more questions or longer development paths that increase risk that leaves Hensler in the middle of the first round. Smart reads, simple passing and flashes of some great offensive zone moments along the half wall, Hensler is an ice blank slate that could be a good bet to round out an NHL defense group.
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Another one of those players with some pros that are among the best in the draft class, and cons that raise big, big questions about his NHL projectability. Kindel might be one of the smartest and most capable passers available, with an insane level of pass vision and creativity on the fly, changing angles and finding multiple complex options that makes everyone he plays with look better. He attacks the net off the puck and earns simple but effective scoring chances like it’s his job… Which I guess it is. A strong playoff performance capped an impressively successful season for Kindel, especially relative to my expectations having seen him in 2023-24. That said, he’s an undersized player who showed his best hockey by far up the middle of the ice in my opinion, and his physical game is almost nonexistent with skating that I wouldn’t consider high-end enough to overcome the physical pressure of the NHL. Kindel is one of a handful of players that I want to love so, so much and there’s so much to love about him. This tier is so, so close and I would love to see him drafted higher than this, but there are legitimate concerns that I imagine will hold him back in the minds of NHL teams. I still have him higher than he’s likely to go because I believe in the passing and upside so much, but doubt is a debt in the NHL draft and he’ll need to make some currency to make it worth a high pick.
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What a fun player Cootes is. Really compact but a great combination of pace, skill and off-puck awareness that has a nice long term trajectory in my opinion. He was successful offensively on a team that struggled to generate offense around him, with just as much involvement in his team’s offense on average as names like Desnoyers, O’Brien, Reschny, Kindel and Carbonneau. I see a Chandler Stephenson-type player here if people forget about Cootes too much. Flies under the radar, isn’t the biggest guy, but flies up and down the ice just being rock solid with a bit of offense and a bit of defense anywhere on the ice, then people notice when he’s 5 years into his career and he’s seen as highly valuable. I do wonder about his compact nature and off-puck quickness being enough to work against NHL opposition, but Cootes brings so much upside with a combination of skill and a high pace of play that few others have this year. Energetic, smart, and effective, Cootes isn’t perfect, but he’s a solid option likely to go a bit later than he probably should.
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He said he’s 100% healthy at the combine and did the physical testing. That’s great news for him, but I personally do not believe that this automatically elevates him to the highest echelons of this draft class. He’s gargantuan with an intense skating stride and a clear physical side to him that he’s not shy to utilize, but in my dataset on him he was largely far from effective unless slipping passes through defenders or in wide open ice carrying the puck. He’s got a great skating stride for his size and some great flashes of skill under pressure, no doubt, but in my books, you have a 6’6” player who played hurt on some level for over a calendar year according to some reports, is likely to put on another 30 pounds or so on his frame that has dealt with back problems, and plays a style of play that requires physical intensity. I just have a lot of questions, and the talk behind the scenes during the playoffs was not promising. Going from being shut down during his playoff run capping off an injury-riddled year to 100% healthy in the span of two months is possible I suppose, but I simply feel that drafting him right up at the top of the draft opens yourself up to significant risk.
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Fiddler is a player whose best moments are really, really good, and some of his worst moments are very problematic. I’ve seen him go end to end in the manner I’ve seen Matthew Schaefer do, with more chances from the front of the net than almost every other defenseman, and he’s got skating ability on the puck that catches your attention. Similar to Hensler, Fiddler needs to work on the lateral mobility and defending with his lower body in transition as he was beaten along the boards and when opponents would cross lanes in front of him more than I’d like, but he has a great frame with the benefit of relative youth that make him an interesting bet. A powerful stride coupled with solid skill is intriguing, I would just love to see some cleaner passing under pressure and more strength added to his play in the coming years. There might be some good upside to Fiddler, but he’s going to need to capture his best hockey more often.
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I’ve said it since November but if this were an exercise in drafting the most skilled players in the world, Carbonneau would be well into my Top 10. Carbonneau is ruthless on the rush with great side-to-side energy and insane application of his skill to try to create plays for linemates. His shot is lethal and he uses it more often than anyone else in the draft. His best moments are spectacular and he’s a capable player under pressure with the puck on his stick. What’s the issue? Carbonneau in my experience is a volume shooter who needs to work towards the middle of the ice significantly more, and the creativity and passing he displays often goes completely unrewarded as the puck drifts through the slot or off a defenders skate and the puck is coming the other way. Once that happens, Carbonneau’s engagement and energy takes a dip as he’s a player that looks for offense more than anything. My data reflects this with some of the highest playmaking potential percentiles with some of the lowest defensive metrics in the whole dataset. He’s a player with a ton of question marks, but a ton of fun baked into his game. Is he destined to be an NHL All-Star highlight reel top six winger? There’s a chance! There is just a bit of a murky road ahead and NHL teams are well aware of it. He’ll dazzle in rookie camps and probably score a kajillion points next year, but his ultimate test will come when he crosses over to pro hockey one day.
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The Czech tower finds himself exactly where I had him in March. I see big upside in Mrtka as a defensive player in the NHL, but there will need to be patience and time to get there. A crisp passer outside in many situations, he covers ice well in multiple disciplines with some really impressive moments stepping up from the offensive zone. Mrtka is a little bit sketchy in close quarters defending with opponents sneaking through his coverage too often and allowing quite a bit of dangerous offense in his own end. He’s another big defenseman who can lose more battles than you’d expect along the boards as well, but his development trajectory could alleviate those concerns easily. Mrtka is a bit of a project, but he brings some good traits to the game that NHL teams will covet. In 5 years or so, there could be a solid pass-first middle pair defender who can generate some neat chances in the offensive zone with his misdirection and reach. I could see him jump way up in this tier on draft day, but my reservations leave him a bit behind the market.
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This guy is a freight train. Words can’t describe my disappointment when he said at the combine that every team only really seemed interested in if he were willing to fight. He said that multiple times, even when asked if he got any fun questions to answer. “Not really, just if I’m able to fight.” This does such a disappointing disservice to his game. Yeah, he’s a big, physical menace, but you see strong finesse in his game from time to time capped with some real highlight goals this year. He drove good offensive metrics to go with his spectacular defensive metrics and my read on him is so far beyond just a giant who will beat you up and knock you out. I mean, I’m sure he’s capable of that, but I can’t help but hope to aim high with Vansaghi. He might need to be a bit more mobile and leaner to really work with his skill more, but I see a real Will Carrier-type here. A guy that goes on deep playoff runs down a lineup that eats important minutes for the rest of the team, with puck skill and scoring ability that pops once in a while to make him more intriguing. Eventually someone locks him up long term and appreciates him for what he is. A competitor, and violent force, and a guy capable of some impressive moments when you least expect it.
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If drafting were all about raw talent, Smith would be higher. Heck, he was way higher on my list right up until my last few viewings of him and his U18 World Championship performance. I just came to the realization that I was waiting and waiting for something that just hasn’t been there. If anything I’ve felt Smith has tailed off on what makes him so special as the season has worn on. Don’t get me wrong, the skating ability in all directions, speed and skill in open ice, and willingness to challenge opposing defenders is there in spades, but where and when he chooses to do so can be a spin of the roulette wheel. He is so, so talented but gets beaten defensively on the perimeter way too often and is often late to commit to contact which is not what I expected. His offensive game simplified to just popping pucks on net from the perimeter in my last few viewings, and his U18 resume left quite a bit to be desired. He wasn’t pushing the pace of the game, making clean plays to linemates and just wasn’t looking like an elite pick outside of the offensive zone to me. I still love the potential. He might be the highest upside defenseman in the draft not named Schaefer, but he probably has the furthest to go in the toughest realm in which to do it. Luckily a recent commitment to Penn State lends much more confidence in his development than his current situation, so perhaps I’m overly concerned. If he does turn out to be just as good as he could be, I would love to see that happen, I just have to mark him down based on what I’ve seen this season.
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Ahhh Cole Reschny. I’ve just given up and accepted my appreciation for his game as worth a risk. Some have really overcorrected here with Reschny extremely high and I do believe there’s still some serious risk to his potential but my oh my what a hockey player. I appreciate his smarts and passing ability so much coupled with how hard he works on the ice. His personalty jumps at you as well, and he’s headed to NCAA hockey immediately which is a welcome shift in his future. He is fearless, competitive and makes plays under pressure with the best in the class. Working with almost any player variety, Reschny is going to need to be in the right environment to work, and I don’t think you can expect physical dominance at higher levels, but I buy into the upside so much and I just don’t want to be too down on such a player come draft time. It seems he’s going to go before the slot, and whoever does pick him, godspeed because I hope for the best for anyone who plays like Reschny, I just feel that at the tail end of The Blob, Reschny brings some of the biggest upside coupled with the biggest question marks.
Tier 4 - The Other Solid Dudes
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On talent alone, Schmidt probably belongs a tier higher, but there are enough doubts in my mind as well as the minds of scouts that he may be one that a team will catch later on than this region. Schmidt is undeniably skilled with lightning quick feet and hands, and an elite wrist and slap shot combination that beat goaltenders all season long. I also felt his playmaking ability in the offensive zone improved year over year with good vision and quick decisions on loose puck recoveries. Schmidt is diminutive and in my view comes with some key issues that might hold him back. His skating is great all around but he still struggles to close the gaps that open up around him and is removed from defensive play far too often. To his credit, he’s tenacious with a great motor and willingness to mix things up, so I do wonder if NHL teams will overcorrect on his valuation come draft day. I know he’s had some level of reputational history to disprove as well that teams were a bit spooked on. Schmidt is a tricky one, but I think he’s going to be gone later than he should, likely on day 2, but could be as good a bet as any, if not better in the range he gets picked. He just screams “The Daniel Sprong of the 2030s” to me, drafted too late for somewhat legitimate reasons, but productive nonetheless and consistently a valuable player to have around. I’m not certain on Schmidt, and he does have his flaws, but the fun factor is off the charts and I think he has the energy and intensity to overcome the issues that come with his size.
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Reid is going to be another interesting one to watch moving forward. Not the biggest defenseman out there, nor the most creative, but he’s an explosive skater with some of the best rush moments of many of the players available. A capable, safe but effective passer, Reid also does a great job escaping pressure with that speed and energy, with a shooting instinct from the perimeter that occurs a bit too often, but generates good offense for his line. I do wonder what kind of defender he could be in the NHL? His physical game is somewhat unrefined, but he’s solid on loose pucks. He isn’t the most creative or dynamic offensive zone defenseman, but his passing game is still dependable. He isn’t small, but he isn’t big either. Is he a power play quarterback? I’m not sure who he replaces that a team already might have. He’s tough to figure out in my books where I like his brand of play, and his raw tools are very interesting, but what comes out the other end just feels a bit too hazy for me to have him in the tier above.
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I don’t know if anyone had as much of a roller coaster season as L.J. Mooney this season. I adore this player, but Mooney got off to a slow start, and just when I felt he was getting going again, a brutal knee injury sidelined him at a key time, only to return looking less comfortable than ever for quite a stretch. Only in the last few months have I felt Mooney really hit his stride, quickly catching up to the best scorers on the team with great even strength results with better results than you’d expect as a centre. His U18 was truly special as well with pinpoint passing, aggressive pursuit defense, and some electrifying rushes up the ice… until he got injured again and missed the final game of the tournament. The concern is that he will be injury plagued thanks to his small stature in both height and weight which is perfectly fine, but the upside with Mooney is well… as high as the Moon in the sky. Mooney carries absolutely lethal playmaking skills and a shot he uses far too rarely, but has a level of tenacity and intensity in his game that stands out in this class. If any small guy is insane enough to make it work with raw energy and passing ability, it’s Mooney. In my model, there’s a nonzero chance we see Mooney go completely undrafted, but I simply can’t imagine that being the correct decision, especially in a draft class that many NHL scouts I’ve spoken to actively despise. Mooney must be a solid bet somewhere, right? If he hits, he’s going to hit big, it just might take time, patience and a little bit of luck.
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Ryker Lee took some time to really take off this year but 54 points in 43 games since mid-November would’ve given him a 77 point full season putting him on par with names like Casey Mittelstadt and Jake Guentzel. Lee is probably the player with the most exciting individual plays in this tier out of anyone. He’s so skilled, able to pull pucks around opponents at high speeds and use linemates to his advantage. At his best, the motor off the puck is admirable, even if he doesn’t cover ice amazingly well, and while that work rate can fluctuate, he still manages to be an offensive threat often. It seems he’s grown since 2023 as well, which could mean he’s still growing into his frame, and he’s a player I would leave in college for an extended stretch anyway and really let him stretch out his development. He’s a high pace, high creativity dual-threat offensive weapon with big upside, but he’s somewhat limited to being a scorer or not sticking in the NHL in all likelihood. Excting, crafty and a high pace scorer, there are plenty of ups with Ryker Lee and his late season push in people’s rankings doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.
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I can’t believe more people who say they respect “hockey sense” and “IQ” aren’t all over Hillström more. He’s got a great natural frame that absolutely hasn’t filled out yet, with an excellent ability to read play off the puck, close gaps, challenge players quickly and do the stuff in hockey that takes the hardest pure effort well. Hillström doesn’t waste his passing work often, he is an excellent faceoff competitor, and has a lovely skating stride that he used to his advantage more and more. Similar to Eric Nilson, his style of play will need to rely on physical development to be functional in the NHL, and I’d love to see his pass lane awareness improve in speed and timing. He was prone to turnovers quarterbacking play, but he’d be right there to generate more turnovers as time goes on. His SHL play was far from awesome, but you still saw a player pretty comfortable with the pace of play there, even if he was put on the wing when usually a centre in junior hockey. I think Hillström is a fantastic long term bet that may take time to develop, but his end result could be a very useful, smart and refined centre focused on the details of the game and driving good results at both ends.
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Another one of these rock solid, smart pressure absorbing centres. His pace of play doesn’t project particularly highly in the NHL but he does have an impressive level of strength and awareness on the fly, working passes around opponents with ease and eating minutes. McKinney has plenty of tools to be a dependable centre at higher levels, I just wonder if he will develop the evasive ability to work around pressure in advance of contact, and do enough creating in open ice with enough pace to move the needle in the NHL. This is around the range where if you get anything, you’ve done well with your draft pick, and I think McKinney has one of the stronger floors in this range. A solid centre with physical ability who can play off contact and make good reads with linemates in space is a fine combination, and he will be a perfectly adequate NHL pick come draft day, be it day 1 or early on day 2.
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I probably have Spence too low as his floor is nowhere near as low as guys like Mooney, Schmidt, or Lee, but I also don’t really know how much upside there is with Spence. He’s a competitive player who has some flashes of puck protection around the perimeter of the ice, with really smart ideas and execution in offensive transitions. He finds a way to get plenty of jobs done while on the ice, but I just don’t know how well it projects beyond the NCAA level. He’s going to a fantastic program and I imagine the pace and skill can improve at Michigan State, but his more advanced age for a first time eligible and somewhat limited pace and speed generation may limit how much he can drive play on his own. I could very easily be wrong, but he’s one of those players where I’ve found a name here and there more intriguing every time I check in relative to Spence, and he lands as a fringe first rounder for me, likely to go earlier than this.
