The Scouching Blog

Scouching's December 2022 NHL Draft Rankings

12/20/2021

Good day! We meet again. I do hope you and yours are all well and safe during this holiday season. I hope I can bring some kind of holiday happiness by presenting the first batch of my findings for the 2022 NHL Draft! Over 100 players have been tracked, some as many as three times, with plenty more coming in the near future. Because you're all so wonderful, I've taken a ton of time focusing on watching and tracking as much as I can since September and held back on putting out a completed list to ensure that my list is as robust as possible, casting as wide a net as I can before refining things as the year goes on.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're unfamiliar, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up. I track all data myself through video at 5v5. Shots, passes, and transition data are the main points I try to hit, and I try to capture exactly what kind of impact the player is having while on the ice.

I also feel it’s prudent to share my personal philosophy so readers can better understand the types of players that I value. Others may have a differing view on what to look for in a young player, and that’s all fine and good, but if I can help you get inside my head a little, it may make for more interesting discussion when those competing opinions inevitably collide. In the NHL Draft, I’m always looking for traits in a player that you can’t often find in the NHL in plentiful amounts. Scoring is of course important, but scoring is the result of strong procedural play that starts with earning puck possession, maintaining possession, getting pucks into the offensive zone, creating scoring chances from high risk areas, and only then will the puck go in the net. A lot of things need to be done well in order to get the puck in an NHL net. Skill at game pace in 5v5 minutes is pivotal, as is speed, but I also look for pace in a player. Can a player put their tools together at game speed to achieve the goals I mentioned earlier? You can be as fast as you want, but if you can’t handle the puck at those speeds, you’ll be useful in fewer scenarios. You can be as skilled as the best on Instagram, but if you can’t read, anticipate and adapt to physical pressure from grown men and maintain possession, you’ll have trouble finding the time and space needed to use that skill, let alone if you lack the quickness and speed that always helps escape that pressure as well. Are you small? I’m far more charitable to smaller players, but only if you display remarkable quickness, fearlessness under pressure and projectable scoring ability that could beat NHL goaltenders one day. I’ll almost always prioritize players who get everything but the scoring right over players who can score, but have trouble driving results elsewhere. My focus is always on what a player could be with the talent presented, even if in short spurts, and I’ll always bet on quick, creative players that drive play with pace and skill at all positions, with a bonus being the fun factor of the player’s game.

With all that out of the way, enjoy the list and please let me know what you think!

Tier 1 - Yeah I'm Doing This, Fight Me.

Yep, I genuinely believe that Shane Wright is not a total lock for 1st overall. I think he'll be at #1 when the time comes, but I think there are legitimate challengers, and I would completely believe it if another player emerged as the most impactful NHLer out there. I love Wright's intelligence with the puck, ability to read and adapt to pressure with skill and pass vision, and his shot is remarkable. I worry about the pace of his game fully translating, but pairing him with quicker, skilled offensive wingers could help him settle into a positional support role with finishing upside. I really like the guy, I just think there are challengers to the throne.
With regards to Brad Lambert, my hands at this point are not only made of diamonds, but reinforced with adamantium infused mega-hyper-steel with all I've read about Lambert being a player destined to slip in the draft. Yes, he can be a frustrating watch when it comes to making plays and getting himself into scoring position off-puck, but holy crap there is so much to like. Nobody has ever been as successful as Lambert transporting the puck up the ice in the Liiga at this age, and the signs are immeasurably bright that the puzzle is very close to being put together. I've seen him look off clear playmaking opportunities in the offensive zone, but I feel like these situations can be fixed in the next few years. If he does slip, I think the potential is massive.
Matthew Savoie is a weird one. He may drop a bit on my board over the year, but he's a top ten guy to me without a doubt. There's pretty electrifying speed out of his turns with an ability to send pucks into dangerous areas in multiple ways, but the more I watch, the more questions I have. Is the skill enough, is the forward skating enough, is he going to be strong enough, all common questions for players like Savoie, but I'm optimistic. He's producing more on the power play for a reason, but that indicates some raw potential that I think he can leverage in the future. Names a little further down may be "safer" on the backs of size and strength with a degree of skill, but Savoie could be an exciting add for a team to add some serious firepower.
Logan Cooley has a lot of Savoie echoes. The data tracked so far is wild, with almost a perfect transition game through two games, a ton of dangerous shot and pass attempts with an Offensive Threat of over 30, which is certainly not bad. He's quick, agile to avoid pressure, reads play well to adapt, and in my view, is the best player available on the NTDP roster this year.

Tier 2 - High End Wild Cards

I simply love Seamus Casey's game as it is, but his potential could be enormous. He's driven tremendous results in my data in multiple offensive metrics. There's great skill and evasion ability with a fearlessness under pressure that makes Casey one of the more exciting defenders out there. There are weaknesses, but most clearly he's a player that can't really explode with speed out of his turns to truly escape pressure against higher end opponents. That is indeed a bit spooky, but some development with a powerhouse Michigan NCAA team could do him well. His vision through traffic couples well with his mobility, and if he's a guy who is available a little later in the first round, he could be one of the higher potential defenders out there relative to draft slot.
Frickin' Juraj Slafskovsky. I have seen professional opponents pin him against the boards, but they don't actually get anything done. He just gets his arms free, and somehow makes a play with a defender all over him. There are flashes of high end skill and speed for such a large player, and I believe he's quicker than the video indicates. His U20 footage I've seen is hilarious considering how big and quick he is, and while he isn't a perfect player in the Liiga yet, I think with a couple years to get comfortable on his giant frame, and some more experience to apply and improve that skill more often, and Slafkovsky could be a great skill power winger in the NHL. I think there's risk of not hitting his ceiling, but it's a unique skillset you do not find easily in the NHL.
David Jiricek is very much up the same alley to me. He's huge, moves pretty well when not under pressure, and there are flashes of skill and creativity offensively that again, you do not see often in defenders like Jiricek. Some NHL teams will simply love how "mean" he is. I've seen him use opponents backs as washboards a few times and literally throw players to the ice, often taking penalties that didn't need to be taken, but it's still something you see in the NHL I guess? On the other hand, Jiricek's tracked data almost across the board is... bad. There's significant "mean defenseman syndrome" at times, where Jiricek plays like he's a big, mean and nasty defensive defenseman, but his actual results are simply not indicative of that strategy working. Pinching on rushes defensively are often shutting down play, and when applying that mean streak along the boards, he or his team doesn't gain possession. I think there's a monster of a defenseman here with some offensive tools with some skills development, but he's a hard one to read and project right now.
It's bordering on bad for my mental health to constantly wonder if I'm missing something with Joakim Kemell relative to others who watch a lot of Finnish hockey. First off, I'm a fan of Kemell, and have been since last year. I just am not so much of a fan of his game that he's a top-3 player to me, which is where he's increasingly being placed. His off puck sense of space is better than Brad Lambert, and I like the quality of his shot more than Lambert, but that's about where it stops. He's slower, less effective or involved defensively, his shot selection is volume focused from poor locations and has gotten lucky on a number of scored goals in my view, he has a very limited playmaking streak, and his offensive transition game is significantly less efficient. I think he could be a solid complimentary scorer to pair with some players who can play with the puck, but I'm always skittish about drafting that kind of profile much higher than this.
Danila Yurov is another really tough one. Yes, he hasn't played many minutes in the KHL, but he also has gotten some good minutes in a few games against some bad KHL teams, and in all minutes I've seen him, he hasn't played like he deserves more minutes. There's good scoring instincts to get into lanes and find space off the puck, and I like his skill and agility along the boards at this level. I just think back to previous KHLers I've watched at the same age, and remember liking what I was seeing of Rodion Amirov, who did play more, but I was more impressed with right away. Am I missing something? It's entirely possible, but I haven't been part of the chorus begging for him to have more ice time. It'd just be nice to see him at a level between the MHL and KHL. If only there was something that could be done.

Tier 3 - The Fun Guys

These guys are all just... a lot of fun. I'm not sure they're quite on the level of the names in Tier 2, but they aren't far off.
Isaac Howard drives great results in my data with remarkable offensive volume and efficiency, with an Offensive Threat of 30.4. He can have trouble truly shaking off pursuers, but with time I'm not particularly concerned. He's a ton of fun to watch, even if he's a bit small, and I'll have my eyes closely on him for the rest of the year. Tons of metrics right now sit in the top 10 of all players tracked to this point.
lol gleb trikozov. If there ever was a player who indicates outstanding upside with remarkable risk, it's G L E B. When he gets his feet moving, he's amazingly fast. When he executes on playmaking opportunities, it usually works. Just to run down the data scaled for ice time a bit, he is *ahem*: First in total offensive transitions. First in controlled offensive transitions. Second in offensive transition involvement. Third in total zone transitions involvement. Fourth in the percentage of of shot attempts where the player is taking or creating them. Sixth in dangerous pass attempts. Fifth in completing them. When it comes to offense, Gleb belongs here. The problem is when he doesn't have the puck. He's just not really... there. Low defensive involvement, low defensive success, too much waiting around for a chance to do his thing. When he does his thing, he's a rock star though. A bit more confidence to get into dangerous areas more is the only hole in his offensive game, and I'm very, very optimistic.
Noah Östlund might have a ton of upside, but there's a ton of risk. He's got plenty of skill, vision and shot quality, but I worry about his ability to really flex his offensive muscles in the NHL, and his defensive muscles aren't particularly projectable either as it is now. Getting quicker and more comfortable at high speeds will be necessary, but his ability to adapt to pressure is impressive. I have no idea where he'll be drafted, and he may end up a bit lower for me, but the upside is there and I want him to get there.
Ok Calle Odelius has rocketed up my board over the year. He blew me away at the Hlinka and his play with Djurgården has been remarkable. Excellent four way mobility, excellent skill, great puck protection ability, and a great ability to cut and change directions to challenge opponents all over the ice. He's evasive and intelligent, and a true example of where I believe defending in hockey is going. He could easily be as high as a top-10 pick to me, but I'm pretty confident with him right in the middle of the first round for now.
Why are more people not talking about Jiri Kulich? He's responsible at both ends. He's got great flashes of skill with a quality release. He's fast in transition, and could do to be more confident with the puck on his stick. A bit more skill development to give him that evasion gear he lacks a little will take him a ways. Even if he specializes off the puck and getting simple chances in front, he does it well. I could see a middle six Swiss Army Knife player, which in the middle of the first is perfectly reasonable in my view.
Filip Mesar is very smart and it shows. He knows how to evade pressure, he knows how to find seams, he knows how to read and anticipate offenses, he knows how to delay his play with the puck to draw defenders around. He's just a rock solid hockey player, through and through and keeps moving up my board.
On the other hand, Ivan Miroshnichenko. Now, I really don't think he's as bad as he's been portrayed by some, but he has been disappointing this year. The fundamental tools are there. His shot is quick, his cuts on offensive rushes to change angles and deceive opponents is impressive, and his ability to make a play under pressure is also impressive, but this is definitely not a player I'm comfortable with in the top 5 as he was projected early in the year. Yes, I've simply been more impressed with Gleb Trikozov, even if he's playing often at a lower level and not scoring at the same rate in the VHL. I think Miroshnichenko is playing a style he's not particularly comfortable playing, but he also has issues reading the ice and using linemates to his advantage. Far too often I'll see him barrel through the neutral zone on his own only to fire a hard wrist shot just inside the blueline directly at a goalie's logo. That just isn't going to work.

Tier 4 - Potentials and Projectables

This group is an interesting mix of relatively safe projections, and players who show high amounts of promise, but with flaws that currently hold them back at the moment.
Marco Kasper is probably the best example of the former, with a strong sense of responsibility and positioning at both ends, capable of cramming pucks in and around the slot area, and rock solid offensive transition ability. He may not be the flashiest pick to add, but I can see him being a dependable and reliable player you rarely have to worry about, even if he isn't filling the net himself.
Cutter Gauthier is one of the more fun players in this group, let alone much of the draft. He's quick, his hands are quicker, and he can deceive with that quickness before pulling pucks wide to drive around defenders. His shot selection is more volume based, and his passing in transition offensively can be a mixed bag, but there are many flashes of really impressive talent with Gauthier and by the end of the year he could be higher on my list than the early 20s.
I can already hear the Conor Geekie questions, and I just wonder about his projection. He's another volume shooter who I've found struggles to get inside consistently against WHL competition. His passing work is relatively low in volume and even lower in completion rates, but he does have impressive offensive zone vision to send pucks into the slot with little skill moves under pressure. If he has time and space to wheel up, he can be a tough player to stop, but I wonder what happens in a couple of years in the NHL when it comes to being an all-around impact player. Will he play? Almost certainly, but I feel like he may peak at around the same level as guys like Kasper.
I'll be quick on Lekkerimäki. He can really shoot, and has some moments of skill. He reminds me of Alexander Holtz but ratcheted down a bit. I think he'll need some help to make things go, but when things go, he's usually finishing plays somehow.
I am 100% certain I have Tyler Duke a bit too high, and I wouldn't take the chance on him in the 1st round, but I certainly am fascinated with where he'll be in five years. Yes, of course, he's small. I can go on EliteProspects too. Duke is another one of these strong defensive players with offensive potential who doesn't have typical defensive player size, but the stickwork and at times the mobility off-puck is highly interesting to me. He needs to get quicker in a straight line, improving his skill level would help too, and his defensive rush route management could really use work as he can avoid challenging puck carriers by driving too far inside to generate the speed necessary to drive back outside, but this guy just has flashes that are more exciting than quite a few players ranked ahead of him. He's a tireless worker, leads the NTDP in shot differentials, and I think a smart team will take a smart flyer on this guy and let him develop for a few years in college.
Almost the exact same goes for Lane Hutson, but the offense is the part that really sticks out, and the defense is... really worrisome. There's a strong chance Hutson peaks in the NHL in my view, but his skill level, creativity, and flair are hard to ignore. He is an example of a defender where I'd say his size holds him back. He physically does not take up much space, and his feet can't make up that difference in my viewings. If he can become an absolutely top tier elite level skater at college, I could see a heck of a dynamic offensive defenseman here, but I think there's a long road ahead.
The group of Chesley, Duke, Hutson, Mintyukov, Grudinin, Mateychuk, and Pickering all bring strengths and weaknesses and to me are largely interchangeable.
Mateychuk is a heck of an exciting player in the offensive zone, jumping into offensive cycles often, and shows smart skill to manage the puck all around the ice, but I worry about how his game projects to the NHL with his lack of truly high end mobility and speed, but he can read play well to get in the way of defensive rushes. I'll need to see more, but opinions on him are all over the place.
I'm surprised Chesley isn't scoring more. I like the combination of footwork and skill to navigate the ice and get into space, but his data tracked has been pretty mediocre on the whole. He's a player that looks good to my eye though, and I think with some general improvement in his game, he could become a solid minutes eater.
Mintyukov is a cowboy. I love watching him play, but he's a cowboy. He can take the foot off the gas pedal and have really unfortunate lapses in awareness defensively, but this dude with the puck is such a treat. He's big, skilled, powerful, and confident. I think the pros outweigh the cons, and I always look forward to tracking a game of his, even if some of the time it is very not fun.
Pickering is a huge wild card. His package of size, skill, and at least rotational mobility is tremendously fun. Below the goal line, his hands and feet are extremely impressive when opening his viewpoint of the ice and scanning for dangerous passing options. His ability to take care of the puck and hit targets has been mixed so far, with plenty of turnovers and trying stretch passes when they may not be necessary, leading to a poor OCZT%, but he has all the gifts with his feet and hands to develop into an excellent offensive puck carrier with solid defensive tools surrounding his size and reach alone.
Grudinin go brr, and I like. I don't know what he is, but he's a quick four way skater that I think could do to be much more assertive than he is. I watched Daniil Chayka completely turn into a boring defensive nightmare with CSKA last year when he had clear flashes of being a dynamic, mobile defender to lean much more offensively than he did. I wonder if similar tactics and tendencies are being coached into Grudinin's game when looking at his talent profile and data side by side.
Devin Kaplan is another slow burn guy. Tons of skill, he's got the mind of a playmaker off the boards, but it just hasn't all come together just yet this season for him. He could be had later in the draft, but he's caught my eye many times while watching other NTDP players for his flair and confidence.

Tier 5 - A Big Giant Mess of Curious Cases

I feel that Paul Ludwinski has been the energetic winger that does a lot of the dirty work to enable Shane Wright to stay in open ice and manage breakouts there with Kingston. He's fast, plays hard, and is one of the better offensive transition players I've tracked this year. If he can build on his skill level to get deeper into the offensive zone and put defenders on their heels, he could significantly outperform his draft slot, even as a complimentary energy forward in the NHL.
I went into tracking Danny Zhilkin expecting to be underwhelmed, but he's put up some great results all over the ice in both games tracked right now. His hands are deceptive, he's quick to my eye in a straight line, he finds space off-puck landing a ton of dangerous shot attempts for himself, and he can create plays at a rate I rarely see. With an offensive threat metric approaching 40, it's almost impossible to sustain that over an entire dataset, but most players that reach that number in major junior hockey have turned out just fine. I wouldn't be surprised to see him creep into the first round, but as the second name I pick, you wouldn't have to convince me to much.
Kevin Korchinski with the puck is a big yes for me. Skill and confidence to move pucks with great efficiency, with tons of attempts into the slot for a defenseman. I question his defensive intensity and physical imposition ability, but there's a lot of things to like, and he could end up higher on my list.
Let's talk about Rutger. He reminds me a lot of my thoughts on Martin Chromiak two years ago. Good finishing ability, not a great skater in any way, and takes the foot off the gas pedal without the puck. He is one of the more reliable passers I've tracked, able to read his options in advance and quickly execute on them accurately, and if he isn't in motion, he's a great pass target high in the defensive zone to facilitate offensive transitions. First round pick? I'm not entirely sure, but he could be a nice supportive forward with better linemates in the NHL.
I wanted Elias Salomonsson to be a thing so bad after what I saw last year. I thought he'd develop into an SHL regular this year, but I have been poking him with a stick asking him to do something for the entire season. He's far too passive defensively, far to passive and safe with the puck, and is playing as if he has absolutely no confidence, when I've seen him do things that many other defenders in this draft don't do with the puck. He could be an excellent passer with skill and deception, but it just isn't there right now. Is there a better player locked away somewhere, sure. Do I still value him as one of the best defenders available? Unfortunately not at the moment.
Nathan Gaucher may be big and mean, but I like his vision under pressure more than I thought I would, and he can get a nice head of steam going offensively. He'll probably get drafted way before I'd take him, but I guess I see why.
Julian Lutz hasn't played due to injury, but this passes my vibe check after watching him last year. He's a wild card but he's got high pace skill and I really hope to see him in the DEL before the end of the season.
I like Luca Del Bel Belluz's potential as a puck carrier with the size and speed he can display, but my tracked data is shockingly low in volume almost across the board. If he can get more involved in play more often, I could see a lot of growth in his game, but I do believe he belongs in this range.

Tier 6 - The Fun Longshots

These guys are all just a ton of fun. Some may not even be drafted, but who cares. Lots of good NHL players don't get drafted the first time around.
Jordan Gustafson will get picked, and I really like what I've seen. He absolutely needs to improve his skating almost across the board, but he gives me Shane Wright feelings with how he anticipates play, uses skill and vision to move pucks with control, while bringing a dual threat offensive game that I think could improve with higher pace.
Maveric Lamoureux plays kind of like an octopus out there. His reach is enormous, and he uses it to pluck pucks out of lanes in the neutral zone often and get them to safety. Will he even be available at the end of the second? I would be shocked. I think he's a player you can sign in the NHL these days, but I feel like he'll land some kind of defense-first role doing what he does well in 2021.
I want to like Justin Côté but outside of how he shoots the puck, I find him far too hard to see carving out a role in the NHL. He's skilled, but I don't think it's enough. He looks quick, but I don't think he gets around quick enough. He can really shoot, but he struggles to get inside and relies on volume, volume, volume. As a late round flyer, you can probably do far worse than Côté, but after tracking him, my view of him has changed since the offseason.
Yep, Lukas Gustafsson Yegor Suchkov and Jiri Tichacek are still in here. They're Team Scouching members, so I won't be putting them on my list in the 2022 Draft, but I'm continually impressed with all three of these guys whenever I see them. Suchkov is leading his VHL team in scoring and should probably be in the KHL. Gustafsson's wheels are clearly turning and his production is improving over the year. He generates chances constantly and I absolutely love watching him play. Tichacek is among the leaders on a Czech Extraliga team, and is gaining more confidence offensively. These guys are unconventional but I still have tons of respect for how they play.
Joel Jonsson could end up higher on my list than the late second. He's fast and skilled, but very raw. He looked excellent when he got a chance to play in the Allsvenskan with Mora's men's team, and I hope there's more of that down the stretch. Putting it all together to play better pursuit defense along the wings, and a better ability to create speed from zero would be ideal, but a lot of boxes are checked for me.
Kenta Isogai is definitely one of my personal favourites this year. He's small, but he's fast and absolutely relentless. Japan seems to be churning out these undersized but fast and exciting young players, and while Isogai didn't go to the World Juniors to play for Japan, he's another example of that brand of play. He gets to the net for shots with and without the puck far more often than you'd think, he shuts down defensive transitions more often than you'd think, and he drives some of the best offensive transition metrics I've tracked.
haha beau jelsma go brr.

Tier 7 - The "I'm Not Sure" Tier

These are all names where I'm not sure if they belong on the numbered list, or the watchlist in "we'll see" territory.
Hudson Thornton with the puck in the offensive zone? Yeah, I'm a fan. Great shot, he opens his feet to maneuver around the ice well, but the defensive game is just not there at all. Huge wild card to me, but I like bits and pieces.
Jake Martin is still here, and I feel a little bad seeing him on a pretty poor Wisconsin team. The defensive game is still there, and the puck management issue from last year is still a work in progress, but I still like the dude and think that he still could be a good defensive player with more development from here.
Hunter Haight may end up unranked. I'm just not sure what he brings that really moves the needle and I've kept bumping him down. There's nice awareness and selfless puck movement, but I'm not sure where he goes in the NHL. Same goes for Pano Fimis and Bryce McConnell-Barker.
Filip Nordberg has had some absolutely awful moments in the games I've seen, especially in the Allsvenskan, but the rangy-ness and skill are impressive for a big man.
Ryan Greene and Adam Ingram? I dig them both, and Ingram is certainly scoring a ton, but a lot is on the power play which always requires further investigation. Ingram's skill and vision is pretty impressive, but he's older for the draft class and has comparable even strength production to my boy Kenta Isogai, who is also nearly a year younger.
Alexander Suvorov should've been drafted and he went into the KHL this year and has been quite impressive. With Belarus at the recent World Junior Division 1A tournament, he was involved in 42% of their goals with 11 points, landing them in the World Juniors next year which he unfortunately won't be eligible for. He's skilled, but could use to be a bit quicker to evade pressure at higher levels a bit better, but he's improving at a solid rate year over year.
Jordan Dumais and Antonin Verreault are tough. They're both very small, and the evaluation has to change a bit in their situation. I am pretty confident that Dumais has the gift of great linemates, but he's shifty and deceptive with his body. I just worry about higher defensive pressure at the next level. Verreault is much the same, but I think there's a bit more pace to like in his game.

The Watchlist

Ahhh The Watchlist. The list where I get to stick my neck out on some guys that I've just had a ton of fun watching, but not seriously considering to draft unless it's late in the draft and you have some picks to spare.
Vadim Fattakhov is so fun, and he's scoring a ton. He's small, but he's aggressive, skilled, and absolutely relentless off the puck. I highly recommend watching him. Same goes for Roenick Jodoin, who is only just now getting moving in his OHL career.
Adam Zlinka caught my eye watching another player and Zlinka broke into the offensive zone, did a spin-o-rama and attacked the middle of the ice. It seems he is injured, and when checking, it seems it occurred at the end of a game while skating to the bench, but in any case, he's fun with a bit of skill.
Dario Sidler is in here. Electrifying little defenseman who is scoring everywhere he goes, even in a men's league this year on a poor team. I'm excited to see him in the World Juniors.
Isaiah George has feet and hands that work well together, but he rarely uses them fully. If he can unlock what I've seen in spurts, I think he could work out.
Marcel Mahkovec is a Slovenian playing down in the German leagues, and I don't think he'll be drafted, but I've liked what I've seen. He's dynamic and shifty, has a great shot, and just finished leading Slovenia in scoring at the World Junior Division 2A tournament, taking them to a 2nd place finish behind a strong French team. Vaasan Sport defender Bine Masic was fun too when I saw him, but I'm more interested in Mahkovec.
Cole Spicer may be a guy, but he's a skilled guy and he's caught my eye a few times. Same goes for Marek Hejduk. Cruz Lucius almost made this list too, but I just have more doubts about just how high end his offensive tools have been.
Adam Sýkora caught my eye watching teammate Simon Nemec. Lots of skill, improving scoring ability, and I'll be curious to see him in the World Juniors this year.
Finally, I want to bring up Rihito Hamano. Yeah, he didn't have any points on the Japanese National Team but hear me out. He's a winger who seems to have been converted to defense for this season, and put back on the wing with the Japanese team. His energy is absolutely relentless and he looked like one of the fastest players in the tournament, making great defensive plays with that speed time and time again. There were chances he created and finished, just nothing went in. At high speeds, his skill level completely falls apart, and that will need to be worked on, and he's clearly still learning how to play defense, but I do think that there's a chance he becomes and exciting puck carrier with more development. Sometimes I watch him and just laugh for both the good and the bad, but I feel like he deserves some attention.

That's all folks! Thank you so much for reading and I hope you have a safe and wonderful holiday season. I think this year's class is a little underwhelming, but there's very interesting and exciting depth to be had. As always, there are guys around the world I've just enjoyed watching, regardless of NHL upside, which is often where a lot of the joy of this work comes from for me. It's just a bunch of gifted kids chasing their dreams, and I have the utmost respect for them. I don't expect another ranking until March, but expect a World Junior recap post in January, along with further McKeens Video team work now that the 2022 Draft is creeping up to us!

Be safe and be well.

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Scouching's 2022 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship Preview

12/15/2021

It's the greatest season of all! Happy Holidays everyone and I hope you're all well. If you've read these in prior years and just want access to the data sheet, say no more and click here!

The 2022 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship is upon us, and I think we're looking at one of the closer and more exciting tournament in the last couple years. While I believe there are medal favorites, some teams are bringing strong goaltending , some are loaded with young firepower, some are relying on strong defense, but many teams bring individuals who can help you win a tournament where a single line can land you in the medal rounds. COVID-19 prevented the promotion and relegation from last year, which unfortunately kept a relatively talented Belarusian group out of this tournament, and left in some teams that are likely to be back in Division 1A next year in Germany and Austria, but in any case, this tournament could turn out to be one of the closer installments we've seen recently.

Before getting into the team-by-team previews, I'd like to just clarify what the metrics you're looking at are and what their caveats are. INV% is simply the average percentage of goals the team scores where the player has a point. Typically 20-25% is a great measure for defenders, and over 30% is quite notable for forwards. NHLeS is a metric I developed to age, league and position adjust a player's production and INV% to illustrate their general value. 20+ is historically 1st round production, but this metric can be a bit misleading in men's league hockey in Europe, as ice time can affect the likelihood of production, and many skilled players are held back from scoring situations more than higher end players in those leagues. It's a nice catch-all, but it does not illustrate "who is better than whom".

In any case, onto the team previews, starting with the team I believe is likeliest to be demoted to Division 1A, ending with my gold medal pick.

Stay safe, enjoy the holidays, get vaccinated, and thank you so much for reading!

10. Austria - 6.00 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Vinzenz Rohrer

Yeah, I've got the Austrians losing out to the Germans, but it's a coin flip to me. Their gold medal game will be trying to defeat the German team and escaping relegation in the preliminary round, but what gives me hope is the individuals on the Austrian team can gain the upper hand on a German team without talents on the same level as Senna Peeters, Vinzenz Rohrer, and Marco Kasper.
Sebastian Wraneschitz incredibly managed nearly a .900 save percentage with a goals against average of 7.45 last season, indicating one of the highest workloads over multiple games that I've ever seen a goaltender face, and I expect that to be the case this year.
Yes, Luca Auer leads the way in NHLeS based on a remarkable Alps Hockey League season, but every time I've watched him, I see a decent finisher in a very, very poor quality league getting plenty of ice time in a variety of situations.
Vinzenz Rohrer is a curiosity that has outperformed expectations after coming from Swiss junior hockey, and while I'm not quite buying his OHL production this season, I'll be curious to see what he does as a player Austria likely relies upon.
Marco Kasper is in my 1st round in my upcoming rankings, so I'm hopeful that he can anchor the Austrian team with his responsible 200 foot game and projectable goal scoring in front of the net. Is he going to light the tournament on fire and score Austria into the playoff rounds? I'm not sure. Would I take Kasper over everyone on the German team? Probably, and sometimes in this tournament, that's all you need in order to escape relegation.
That being said, these guys can't play 60 minutes, and the deciding factor may be Wraneschitz in that pivotal Germany game... and all the other ones they play.

9. Germany - 4.46 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Adrian Klein

No Tim Stützle. No JJ Peterka. No Lukas Reichel. Germany needed those first two players last year to get to where they got, and without them, I just don't like their chances.
Florian Elias, Bennet Roßmy, Justin Volek, and Alexander Blank may be enough to escape relegation against who is likely to be Switzerland, but I find it unlikely that the Germans will find themselves in any situation outside of "Beat Austria so they go to relegation and you don't."
Adrian Klein is an interesting defender I've seen play a little bit here and there, but I haven't seen much of a needle mover that I believe will be able to eat minutes against the best competition at this tournament. He's still the guy I'll be paying attention to.
I wish there was more for me to say. I checked out some of these players prepping for this piece, and I just don't see much of a competitive team.

8. Switzerland - 6.31 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler

It's hard to ignore the decline that Switzerland has been on in recent years. As much as it pains me to say it, I struggle valuing the Swiss junior league, and many players who graduate to the National League or Swiss League have trouble moving the needle at higher levels.
I do believe Switzerland has some curious names to keep an eye on. Simon Knak is a returnee that I believe will be a major player they'll rely on, but the strength of this team in my opinion lies on defense.
Lian Bichsel is one of the more physical draft eligible defenders this year, Noah Meier is a steady presence that while may not NHL-level, he's held his own in pro hockey this season. Brian Zanetti is a player I've enjoyed as a junior as well, and Giancarlo Chanton is back after a very solid 2021 tournament. There's a decent group of defenders that should be able to keep the Swiss afloat enough to stick around for the year.
Oh, and little Dario Sidler. I just love this dude. I still probably wouldn't draft him, but I'm tracking his career closely, and he's been one of the stronger players on a poor Swiss League academy team in Zug. He can shoot, he's got skill, and if a team can't stay out of the box against this Swiss team, Sidler on the power play can be a legitimate threat.
All that being said, I have a hard time seeing this team getting enough points out of Slovakia, Sweden, Russia and the US to escape the relegation round, but I'd be stunned if they lost to Germany/Austria at that level.

7. Czech Republic - 8.88 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Jiri Kulich

Ahh the Czech Republic... They've lost in the quarter finals in 7 of the last 8 tournaments, and I believe that trend will probably continue this year. As much as I love Jan Mysak as a junior, I don't think there's enough high end scoring to really make a dent, and goaltending remains a question mark.
The strength of this team, similar to Switzerland, lies on their defense. David Jiricek will be a menace to deal with, so long as he stays out of the penalty box and utilizes linemates effectively with the puck. Stanislav Svozil is a returning stable presence on the backend. Jiri Tichacek remains one of the best undrafted players from 2021 and I would love to see him get some ice time in this tournament. Michael Krutil, David Moravec and Matej Pinkas have at least shown an ability to plug holes and play defensive hockey, even if they aren't lighting the lamp consistently.
Jiri Kulich is one of the more underrated players in the draft to me. He's quick, solidly skilled, smart and responsible at both ends, and great in front of the net leading to his goal scoring so far this year. I personally prefer him slightly to Marco Kasper but their games are similar. I'm hoping he shows off what he's capable of on a bigger stage here.
This is a team that I think should be able to avoid the relegation round over Switzerland, but an opponent like the USA, Russia or Sweden could create issues in the Quarterfinal rounds in multiple ways.

6. Slovakia - 9.35 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Adam Sykora

The Slovakians and Austrians are bringing the youngest teams to this tournament on average by almost 3 months, but I'm far, far more optimistic about the Slovakians, and a strong performance from Simon Latkoczy could cause some headaches for a much more talented team.
I mean, where do I begin with the fun? Dalibor Dvorsky is well over a point per game in the Swedish J20 league at 16 years old and has displayed a tremendously exciting brand of offensive hockey. Martin Chromiak has developed into a more dynamic scoring forward than I remember in his draft eligible season with improvements to his agility and pace of play. Filip Mesar is an intelligent, promising pivot who can play at both ends and solidify a line around him. Juraj Slafkovsky is just a monster. He's huge, he's hard for Liiga talent to get on top of, and he may be one of the more physically dominant offensive players in this tournament as a draft eligible.
Their defensive group is also relatively strong with personal favourite Samuel Knazko returning for his third tournament, and likely top ten pick Simon Nemec quarterbacking their offense from the defensive end. Marko Stacha is no slouch either with a strong defense-first game that fits well against junior competition.
While many will be watching for Slafkovsky, I've seen him enough to know he's very good. I'll be looking at another draft eligible in Adam Sykora. I doubt he plays a major role for this team, but he's young, skilled, creative, and can really shoot the puck in my viewings.
This is a team that may put a surprising, plucky performance together, but they'll be in tough against some powerful lines and teams in later stages.

5. Finland - 9.42 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Brad Lambert

The Finns are always a team that you can't count out. Joel Blomqvist has been having an excellent season at multiple levels, and great goaltending can take you far.
Beyond that, there's just a strong, well rounded roster of both forwards and defense. It's obviously disappointing that Aatu Raty again misses out on what would have been his final World Junior, but we can't have nice things often.
I'm highly skeptical that Joakim Kemell sustains his production level, and his return from injury has been underwhelming, but he may still be a major player on the team. I'm personally looking more in Brad Lambert's direction for someone who could be driving the bus for the Finns. He's a tremendous puck transporter in the Liiga, and this tournament could be a reminder that he's still around and he's still one of the best players in the 2022 draft.
I love that Juuso Mäenpää will be there. He's so tiny but zips so quickly and has chipped in offensively in the Liiga quite well in my viewings.
Roby Järventie and his shot will likely be on full display, and I hope sincerely that 2021 favourite Ville Koivunen shows the world what he's capable of with his intelligence, puck management, and strong all-around game.
Kalle Väisänen is another player I've been a fan of for quite a while, and think that the longer he takes to develop the better. He's huge and hulking, but he shows flashes of skill and agility to get off the boards well and make plays. I'd expect him to play a bigger role in 2023, but keep an eye out for him punishing junior aged players in this tournament.
The defensive group is strong as well, of course anchored by Topi Niemelä who may very well be the best defender in the tournament when all is said and done. He's skilled, creative, intelligent and mobile, and should be a massive minutes eater for the Finns this year.
Eemil Viro is a guy I'm kicking myself for not liking as much as I should've in 2020. His skating takes him a long way. While I don't see huge upside, I see a strong defensive player that Finland will need and appreciate.
This is a team that I could see going all the way to be honest. It'd be an upset, and it'd probably take some great goaltending, but I could see it. Finland always brings an A-level team game with a combination of skill, physicality, and hard work. They're balanced and relatively deep, even if they may lack a true gamebreaker to send out with 90 seconds left in a playoff game.

4. Russia - 9.95 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Vladimir Grudinin

It's pretty hard to deny that Russian hockey culture really, really, really doesn't like when players leave Russia. Daniil Chayka was a huge defender for Russia last year, often crossing 20 minutes of ice time, and he was cut from the team this year in favor of objectively worse names. Daniil Gushchin has been a standout for the Russian international team for years, but he's nowhere to be found. In my view, these cuts and more actively made the team worse and may have put them at a significant disadvantage.
That being said, this is a team of Russian hockey players. You never bet against them. If Canada's up 5-1 on them in a semi-final in the 3rd period, I'll still be holding my breath. A couple Marat/Pashin rushes up the ice, a couple shots from Matvei Michkov, and you could have a very interesting game very quickly. I was in the arena for the Collapse of 2011, and I'll never, ever forget it.
Now, this team is still strong, and I expect they'll compete for a medal. They have some good scoring options in Chibrikov, Guslistov, and Ponomaryov, and one of the best players in the world for his age in Matvei Michkov. He's a magician. He'll shoot often from all over the ice, but he's a threat pretty much anywhere. He's a wonderful finisher and will likely be relied upon significantly.
Vladimir Grudinin is the player I'll be looking for. I don't know how much he'll play, but I want to see him against high end junior competition. He's riding the edge of my first round right now, and I've liked the KHL tape I've seen with the four way quickness, skill level, and flashes of confidence.
I'm very pleased to see Team Scouching member Pavel Tyutnev here. He's just earned it after years of strong play in various levels. He's dynamic, skilled and reliable at both ends, and I'll be excited to see where he ends up on this roster.
I know Yaroslav Askarov has been great for a few years overall, but in the World Juniors to this point? Flip a coin. Heads? Russia could win it all. Tails? They may get shocked in the quarterfinals if the firepower goes silent.
Could this team have been better? Absolutely. Are they bad? I don't believe so, but they're going to have to battle in order to keep up with the teams ahead and the plucky Finns we just covered.

3. Sweden - 10.60 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Fabian Lysell

The Swedes are a team that could really go far if their best names produce, because those names are terrific. William Eklund is a wonderfully dynamic offensive threat at any forward position, Alexander Holtz could score a pile of goals, especially if you take penalties against this team, Fabian Lysell is exciting and dependable at both ends, and Oskar Olausson has a proven track record of using skill and deception to carve opposing defenses apart.
Simon Edvinsson anchors a talented defense group with Emil Andrae and Helge Grans with a solid supporting cast, and should provide both strong defense in front of Jesper Wallstedt as well as some offensive punch to support the offensive leaning players.
Daniel Torgersson is another interesting one, with his size and skill combination making him a deadly option around the net.
On the Pavel Tyutnev note from before, I'm just really glad Elias Stenman is getting a chance. He isn't flashy or a likely NHL prospect, but he's smart and dependable, able to anchor a line and play strong hockey up the middle supporting both offensive and defensive players.
Oh yeah, Isak Rosén is going to be there. I've seen many different versions of Rosén, but his scoring instincts are hard to ignore. I like the guy as a swiss army knife player offensively.
I'm sure many will be watching Zion Nybeck, and I'll be one of those people too, but only to see the progress he's made, because in my view, he had lots of progress to conquer before becoming the player he has been against junior competition.
Jesper Wallstedt has been having an excellent season in the SHL, and I expect him to be more than capable of taking Sweden as far as he wants to take them.
My eyes will be on Fabian Lysell, because I find it difficult for them not to be. They aren't bringing any draft eligibles, but I'll be looking to see if Lysell is the player I know he can be. He's quick, works extremely hard at both ends, has the capability of attacking the middle with pace, and just does so much so well, that I'd love to see him break out and take this tournament by storm.

2. United States - 15.37 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Scott Morrow

The defending gold medalists could very well repeat in my view. They have a strong, deep team that only really has a weakness in net. They're a team full of strength, speed, and some skill players that will get you out of your seat.
While I'm not the biggest fan of Pastujov as an NHL prospect, he should be a major producer in this tournament for the States. Jake Sanderson could probably be in the NHL right now, so he'll likely be a massive player. Brett Berard had a coming out party last year and I expect a repeat this year. He's a guy I'm a big fan of, and I've been pleased with his development.
Scott Morrow could be in your Twitter timeline with how confident and creative he is with his skill. I love the dude and can't wait to see him here.
Matthew Knies is a player I misevaluated last year. Dealing with COVID issues and injuries were things I lost in the shuffle, and he's really turned a corner this year with a good power game off the wings.
I don't know who Dominic James is.
Luke Hughes is going to be a fun one as well, I think. He has had an excellent freshman season with Michigan, and his skill and confidence should be on display just as it will be for Morrow.
Logan Cooley is a pleasant surprise to see on the team. He's a dynamic, mobile offensive player who has pushed tremendous results in my tracking work to this point.
It's pretty simple to me, I think if the States get competent goaltending, they could win the whole thing. They many not have quite as talented a team as last year, but they're more than capable of winning against anyone with this group.

1. Canada - 19.65 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Shane Wright

I just want to reiterate that I think the teams at the top here are really, really close. I think the United States and Canada are a step ahead, but if goaltending shows up, and the best players on other teams just have that extra "I want to beat Canada" oomph at the right time, things could get very interesting.
On the other hand, Canada is looking absolutely gross. Everywhere you look, there are players either marked by physical intensity, offensive skill, scoring ability, or pure, raw mobility.
Sebastian Cossa will be tested, but he should be more than capable based on what I've seen of him over the last two seasons.
Yes, I'm the person who had questions about Owen Power and ranked him lower than anyone, but his game has evolved in the way that I hoped it would, leaning into the offensive side of the game while patching holes defensively. He's a great creator that can be tough to stop in transition, and I expect him to play a big role for this team.
I'm hoping Mavrik Bouque has a nice breakout tournament as an offensive catalyst. He's earned the chance to present his game to the world with his creativity and ability to adapt to pressure.
Elliot Desnoyers is in a similar boat. I was straight up asleep on that dude when he was drafted, and I shouldn't have been. He's been excellent when I've seen him since, and he should be a solid role player on this team.
Don't sleep on Justin Sourdif either. I've loved him every time I've seen him since being drafted by Florida. I still do question if the offense follows him to the NHL, but he's energetic, crafty and gets to the net well. I feel he could be a big piece of this offense regardless of where he slots in on the depth chart.
Remember when Olen Zellweger wasn't drafted in the first round and a lot of other defenders were, and they aren't here? I remember. Zellweger is a wonderful skater with solid skill and confidence with the puck in the offensive zone. He's only gotten better this season and I'm so excited to see what he can pull off here, assuming he's played as much as he should be.
Shane Wright is my guy to watch, but not because I think he's "sick", but because I want to see him against high level junior competition on a big stage. Honestly, while I see the appeal of Wright as the #1 player this year, I have been underwhelmed with his potential impact at the NHL level. The shot is wonderful, the skill and brain work well together to move pucks into new lanes, and his read of the ice is often strong, but I'll be keeping a close eye on him as I don't believe it should be unanimous to have him at the #1 slot.
The only hole I can see in this team is a hole that has affected them in the past, which is staying out of the box. Ridly Grieg cannot put himself in a situation to get suspended again, unless it means not taking worse penalties at worse times later in the tournament. Same goes for guys like Ryan O'Rourke, Kaiden Guhle and Mason McTavish. They can absolutely smash and crash, but in IIHF tournaments, that can be an issue.
This is still a team that can steamroll their way to the finals, just like they did last year, only to be challenged by a skilled, fast and hungry USA team. They're deep, they're diverse, and they're

I'm so excited for this year's tournament. The top level teams are looking awesome. The teams beneath them have strong individuals and goaltending, which can carry you far in the tournament, and even in the quarterfinals I believe there's potential for some upsets. This is the best hockey tournament out there, in my opinion and I'm always always thrilled to watch it. The respect I have for these players is remarkable, and all I'm trying to do is evaluate and learn more about this wonderful game, and present findings to an audience to make the game a bit more interesting (hopefully). I'd urge everyone to please be cordial and respectful towards each other and the players in this tournament. They're still young, they're developing, mistakes happen in junior hockey, and this tournament is often not free of controversy. The World Juniors are wonderful because of what they are. Kids chasing a dream on the international stage, wearing their colors for millions to see, and we're all the more better for it.

My prediction for the medals? Canada takes home the gold in a rematch against the United States, with Sweden taking the Bronze over one of Finland and Russia, but this could be a wild, wild tournament, so strap in.

That's all for now! Thank you so much for taking the time to read and flip through my spreadsheet. Any changes to lineups and jersey numbers will be update in the sheet and here, so bear with me while things are finalized.

Be safe, be well, and enjoy the hockey!

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Scouching's 2021 NHL Prospect Pyramids

9/7/2021

Ok, so right off the bat, a couple things: First off, I hope you had excellent, safe summers and are looking forward to an exciting season of hockey around the world. Second, I'm absolutely, 100% ripping this idea off of the infamous Steve Dangle, because it just makes too much sense to not steal. All the credit for the idea goes to Steve. That idea is to organizing young players in NHL prospect pipelines into a pyramid of tiers, with franchise-transforming level players at the top, to core players, to fringe/depth players, to longshots, and "Everyone Else" at the bottom. I felt it was prudent to start this season off with a general and casual overview of pipelines around the league as we get into another season.

What constitutes each tier? A franchise-transforming player is exactly what it sounds like. Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby, perhaps Connor Bedard one day? Either that or there is potential that the player could reach that point with development. These are very rare, and would only likely last on my drafted prospect sheet for one, dominant NHL season. A core level prospect is a player that will most definitely be a valuable piece to a team. A player you wouldn't want to trade unless you're getting quite a bit in return. A player that may not be dominant, but certainly one you reeeeeally like to have. Think Trevor Zegras, Cole Caufield, Owen Power and others. This is where most high end draft picks will land who still qualify as a prospect in my tracking document. Depth level players are likely destined for at best 2nd line roles on any given NHL team, and may be players that may bounce around a little in their careers, but ideally above replacement-level. There are certainly many more of these, as the majority of drafted prospects usually end up somewhere around this range on most NHL teams for a time. The maybe level is for players I'd consider projects or longshots. These are players who may have shown some level of promise but leveled off, or are players who are a step or two behind players that may be further along in their development. The rest get dumped into the "Everyone Else" category, which are players that I struggle to see a path to the NHL for relative to their peers. Could any of these players work up or down the tiers over time, even from the bottom to the top? Absolutely! The name of the game in this line of work is always probability, however, and many drafted players never even get a sniff in the NHL, so the pyramids must reflect that. On each team, I'll be highlighting who I believe is the "best" prospect in the team's pipeline, as well as a player who I've either loved watching in the past and will have my eye on often this season, or simply a fascinating case study that I'll want to keep in the back of my mind. They may not be the "best", but their success would bring me great joy and/or self-reflection.

In case you're wondering, these pyramids are hosted on my Team Prospect Tracker sheet, available at the $15 a month Patreon tier which comes with all perks of lower tiers. Detailed statistics for each team's prospect pipelines are available and updated daily. These pyramids will also be updated accordingly throughout the year.

The last thing is that I want to define what I consider a "prospect" for the purposes of this work. Any player that was first eligible in the 2017 draft or later appears on my lists, putting them in their 5th year of development. Any player who has played more than 41 NHL games or more is also removed from the list, so no Alexis Lafreniere, but yes to Quinton Byfield or Zac Jones. Of course there will be some players on the fringes, or technicalities, but this is just my methodology for tracking purposes, and it generally seems to line up with reality. With all that out of the way, let us begin in alphabetical order with the Anaheim Ducks!

Anaheim Ducks
Top Prospect: Trevor Zegras
Will's Pick: Olen Zellweger

I've really liked the direction the Ducks have gone recently. There's a nice blend of firepower, creativity, skill, and of course g r i t that should be able to round out a good NHL roster down the road. Of course, high picks Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale and Mason McTavish headline the group, but there's a strong support cast of names like Olen Zellweger, Jacob Perreault, Brayden Tracey and Lukas Dostal that could be great middle of the lineup players with various high end areas of the game.

Trevor Zegras is simply a wizard with the puck, and I feel like it's only a matter of time before he gets stronger and more comfortable in the NHL. He was electrifying at the World Juniors, showing tremendous creativity and adaptability that I hope follows him to the NHL. My personal favourite pick of the litter had to be Olen Zellweger. There's a dynamic shiftiness to his game, able to shake off pressure, create lanes, create space, and move pucks offensively at a real high level. On top of everything, he has the advantage of being just barely eligible for the 2021 Draft, and is one of the youngest D+1 prospects in the league.

Even down the board a bit, Jackson Lacombe and Henry Thrun have taken strides in college, Sean Tschigerl was a favourite of mine last year, and of all the players I hadn't seen before the 2021 Draft, Josh Lopina stuck out as a high floor, smart, hard working energy player in college that could carve out a role down the road. It's an all-around solid group, and there will probably be more on the way in 2022.

Arizona Coyotes
Top Prospect: Dylan Guenther
Will's Pick: Victor Soderstrom

Oh, the Arizona Coyotes. They clearly are entering another rebuild with 11 picks in 2022 and 2024(!) already, and they may not be done selling off prime assets on the team. That is a tremendous amount of draft capital to accrue, but it's another thing to use it effectively. Considering how long the Coyotes have struggled to get over the hump of contention, their recent draft history can be seen as underwhelming. Their 2021 class was... fine, I suppose, but the value left on the board is hard to ignore.

Nevertheless, Dylan Guenther landing in their lap was a nice gift this year, and Victor Soderstrom has steadily improved his offensive leaning game on the backend. Some may question where I've put Barrett Hayton, but while I haven't been his biggest cheerleader, I do think there's a legitimate NHL centre locked away there somewhere, but maybe that's me hoping for Arizona's sake that they haven't completely whiffed on a 5th overall selection when names like Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard, Smith and Dobson were all on the board.

I wasn't huge on the Josh Doan pick at 37 in 2021, but he isn't a lost cause whatsoever. Janis Jerome Moser may be an NHL player sooner than many taken ahead of him if they make it at all, and there's nice potential with names like Farinacci, Maccelli and Kolyachonok.

One player off the beaten path I have honestly enjoyed is Elliot Ekefjard. He's big, skilled, strong, and while he's a longshot, I had no idea who he was before he was drafted, and in my viewings I found him to be quite impressive. The same could be said for Alexander Daryin, though his development seems to be a bit stagnant lately.

All in all, the Coyotes are looking... fine maybe? For the next few years, it will be absolutely pivotal to really, really nail getting value from all those draft picks. The fate of the organization may partially depend on it.

Boston Bruins
Top Prospect: Fabian Lysell
Will's Pick: Fabian Lysell

The Boston Bruins have been too busy being very good at hockey to worry about filling their prospect cupboard, I think. Fabian Lysell is the star of the show, and was an excellent pickup for them in 2021. I'm still a believer in John Beecher's size and skating package, but the number of players in the pipeline that I can really get behind is a bit limited. Mason Lohrei had a huge year as a 19 year old in the USHL, but I still want to see him at higher levels. Andre Gasseau is an interesting pickup late in a draft, with size and skill, but a lack of refinement and consistency held him back to me. He's a player that in isolation can pull off impressive plays, so I'll have one eye on him this year.

Considering everywhere Jeremy Swayman goes, he stops pucks, and considering he stopped pucks extremely well in limited NHL minutes, as of right now, signs are bright for him to be a potential long term option for the Bruins.

There are just a lot of "guys" with the Bruins, but a lot of "guys" I could see molded into prototypical bottom six Bruins who work hard, earn the results they create, and carve out a role in the NHL. Names like Kuntar, Harrison, and Studnicka could all be part of that group down the road in my view.

Buffalo Sabres
Top Prospect: Owen Power
Will's Pick: Ryan Johnson

Soooooo yeah. The Buffalo Sabres have been not good for a long time, and a big reason in my view is their inability to not only draft good value options in the draft, but develop players to the point where they're comfortable and capable of pushing play in the NHL. In 2020, I felt their draft missed out on value, albeit less so than prior years, but in 2021 the same trend continues. I'm one of very few who remains skeptical of Owen Power as a truly elite NHL prospect as of right now, but there's no doubt that he will be an NHL player that can drive play, especially in the offensive direction if it were up to me. Isak Rosen may not have been my guy where he was drafted, but he should be a solid complimentary scoring option. JJ Peterka absolutely should've been a 1st round pick in 2020, and people seem to have forgotten completely about Ryan Johnson as he continues to develop a modern and mobile defense-first game with the University of Minnesota. Jack Quinn, once again not the player I would've gone with where he went in 2020 is still a capable scorer with plenty of runway for development.

This is a team that can't afford to be as terrible as they've been, even if just for their fans' sake. There's still work to be done, and there's still value being left on the board in the draft, but the Sabres are certainly trying to move themselves in the right direction with a combination of energy, skill, and physical play with three strong options in net with Devon Levi, U-P Luukkonen and Erik Portillo all on the way.

Calgary Flames
Top Prospect: Matthew Coronato
Will's Pick: William Stromgren

Calgary is one of the teams that flies a bit under the radar with just how interesting their prospect pipeline has been built. They haven't drafted highly in recent years, but coming out with the trio of Connor Zary, Jakob Pelletier and Matthew Coronato is a nice group to work with down the road, and they've made big swings on names like Cole Huckins, William Stromgren, Jeremie Poirier, Dustin Wolf, Ryan Francis and others. If any of these players pop off, I feel like they'll really pop off. They're one of the better value drafting teams in the mid to late rounds, and that trend continued through 2021.

William Stromgren stands out to me as a player I'll be very interested in. He's mobile, big, skilled, but inconsistent and doesn't apply himself often enough to be extremely projectable. The potential is still huge, and in my view, players where the main criticism is that they aren't "good" often enough, but still "good" at times often have a ton of easy upside to expose with more coaching and experience.

Mattias Pettersen, Rory Kerins, and Dmitri Zavgorodny are fun, skilled names that I'd love to see break into the NHL one day. Martin Pospisil is a bit of a hothead from what I remember, but also not bad at the hockey and there's a possibility he carves out a role in the NHL as well. Cole Jordan has tons of upside in my view, but requires some time and patience to rework various areas of his game when it comes to puck management and utilizing his mobility more often.

The Flames are a quietly effective team when it comes to the draft, and while there may be some changes coming to the NHL team in the coming years, there is already a solid pipeline of interesting options across the board that could fill out the roster sooner than later.

Carolina Hurricanes
Top Prospect: Seth Jarvis
Will's Pick: Domenick Fensore

Here come the meme kings. The Carolina Hurricanes are on an island by themselves with how they look at the draft, it seems. Almost entirely focused on value and upside, regardless of almost any other quality, the Hurricanes have continuously stockpiled pick after pick after pick, and taking huge swing after huge swing after huge swing. Will it work out? Who knows, but it's fun to watch! They've gone out and added many personal favourites of mine available way past where they should've gone. Noel Gunler, Domenick Fensore, Anttoni Honka, Tukka Tieksola, Ville Koivunen, Scott Morrow, Jamieson Rees, Alexander Pashin, I could go on forever. Their strategy is fascinating to say the least.

Headlining everything is Seth Jarvis. He was great in the WHL, great in the AHL, and shows projectable dual-threat offense that could slot into the Hurricanes roster as an effective ELC player. He's dynamic, skilled, creative and intelligent with rock solid potential. Not too bad for taking on Patrick Marleau's contract, eh?

I still am on the Domenick Fensore train by the way. He and Anttoni Honka are real longshots, but they've come a long way since they were drafted in my view. Dynamic, mobile, creative, and sometimes frustrating, they're tons of fun to watch and I hope we see more of their kind in the NHL one day. As much as I really liked Dominik Bokk at draft time, his development is troubling to this point. I'm not counting him out, but I really wanted to put him higher and I just don't believe it's the right thing to do.

Yes, the Hurricanes are simultaneously hilariously awesome and frustrating, but through it all, they've done an excellent job stockpiling value picks and interesting projects that should help round out their roster for years.

Chicago Blackhawks
Top Prospect: Lukas Reichel
Will's Pick: Landon Slaggert

What was once a promising prospect pool to me seems to be missing it's potential a little bit, but there's still a high volume of potential role players that Chicago has stockpiled. Lukas Reichel is a scoring winger that gets by on smarts and shot generation. While I like Nic Beaudin and Wyatt Kaiser, I don't quite see them on the same level as Reichel. Beyond that, there could be good depth options in names like Victor Stjernborg, Ethan Del Mastro, Colton Dach, and Nolan Allan, and NHL teams definitely still need those types of players.

Landon Slaggert is a player who I had in the back of my mind in the 2020 Draft and even I've been impressed with his progression. He could work his way up a tier with another strong year in Notre Dame. I was on Niklas Nordgren's train for a few years, but time missed with injuries, coupled with how much work needed to be done with his skating has stunted his development much to my chagrin. Potentially players like he and Evan Barratt find form again, but I may not hold my breath too long.

There isn't a tremendous amount to say here. Chicago tends to target low upside players recently in the draft, especially on defense, and time will tell how that shakes out for them. I felt Nolan Allan was questionable in the 1st round, but he's certainly big and physical! It's an up-and-down group of players, but I won't completely count them out as the Blackhawks continue to build around their new young core.

Colorado Avalanche
Top Prospect: Bowen Byram
Will's Pick: Jean-Luc Foudy

The Colorado Avalanche are bound to get to the promised land some time soon, right? Well, even if they don't, there are plenty of players waiting in the wings that will continue to help the Avalanche compete for years. Led by burgeoning NHL pieces Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook, new additions in Oskar Olausson, Sean Behrens, and Justin Barron all look like potential NHL pieces to suit a variety of roles. While I wasn't the biggest fan of Justin Barron, his puck carrying and evasive skill are a ton of fun to watch and his development has come along nicely. I still sit comfortably on the JLF train, and felt he took a nice step in his development with the Colorado Eagles last season. I may be optimistic with him where he is, but I just love watching the guy play, and think there could be great value from the speedy third rounder.

Beyond the big names, Justus Annunen has come along just fine in Finland, Colby Ambrosio had a rock solid freshman season, and Martin Kaut continues to improve his production in the AHL every year. For a team as absurdly talented as they are in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche may not have the deepest pool around, but they certainly have a much better pipeline than quite a few teams in the league.

Columbus Blue Jackets
Top Prospect: Kent Johnson
Will's Pick: Kirill Marchenko

Columbus has been quite the roller coaster over the last few years, both in the NHL and outside it. They had more picks in 2021 than they did in 2020 and 2019 combined and four years of varying playoff success followed by a season of the opposite has resulted in a team looking to reshape their identity. That seems to have started with their enormous haul in the 2021 draft, led by creative king Kent Johnson, destroyer of pucks Cole Sillinger, and interesting value defenders in Stanislav Svozil and Corson Ceulemans. Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov continue to develop in the KHL in growing roles, and a number of curious later round picks such as Nikolai Makarov, Ole Bjorgvik Holm, and personal favourite Samuel Knazko could potentially be useful role players on Columbus' defense in the future.

I'm hopeful that Liam Foudy can carve out a consistent and important role for Columbus, and names like James Malatesta, Tyler Angle, Martin Rysavy and Trey Fix-Wolansky and swings on raw skill that I'm always a fan of. In my view, the work is not done in Columbus whatsoever, and after adding Jake Bean from Carolina and Adam Boqvist from Chicago, as well as another 1st round pick in the next two years from Chicago, Columbus could see their team start an upswing considering who they've added to this point, and who may be coming in the near future.

Dallas Stars
Top Prospect: Mavrik Bourque
Will's Pick: Logan Stankoven

A very large part of me loves how the Dallas Stars draft, but another part of me gives me a bit of pause. On one hand, drafting for high upside derived from skill, and capitalizing on high skill players who are available later than they should be is a strategy I'll always latch onto. I adore watching Mavrik Bourque make plays all around the ice in a variety of ways. Logan Stankoven is simply remarkable. Ayrton Martino has flown under the radar steadily, and Antonio Stranges, Yevgeni Oksentyuk, and Connor Roulette are pure, raw skill bets. On the other hand, I do believe there's such a thing as relying a bit too much on skill, and their track record on rounding out their pipeline is a bit questionable at this point. Riley Damiani has come along nicely and Artyom Grushnikov could be a solid defender, even after missing all of last season.

First round picks Ty Dellandrea and Thomas Harley may not have been the first names I would've called in 2018 and 2019, but they've come along nicely and should help round out Dallas' roster down the road. The important thing to focus on, however, is if Dallas fans are looking for another Jason Robertson story, there may be more than one on the way in a few years, and those are always fun for everyone.

Detroit Red Wings
Top Prospect: Moritz Seider
Will's Pick: Lucas Raymond

*insert fake computer program recording of Steve Yzerman laughing maniacally*

In all seriousness, the Detroit Red Wings have drafted often, and in many areas, drafted extremely well. They made a damn fool out of me and many others drafting Moritz Seider, who has simply blossomed into an excellent two-way force on big European ice at multiple levels. He's got skill, mobility, physical imposition, strong defensive reads, and a very short list of weaknesses. On a similar note, Detroit again raised some eyebrows by drafting Simon Edvinsson over personal favorite William Eklund, but I certainly see a world where Edvinsson can hang with Eklund in a few years with strong development to his puck management and offensive confidence against men. In any case, a 1/2 punch of Seider/Edvinsson could be unpleasant for opponents to say the least.

On top of all that wonderfulness, they also have Lukas Raymond, Joe Veleno, Jonatan Berggren, Teddy Niederbach, and Albin Grewe working their way through the pipeline up front which ain't bad at all, and plenty of auxiliary talent on the defensive side in William Wallinder, Eemil Viro, and Shai Buium. There's just so, so much going on in Detroit's pipeline. They may not have nailed every pick they could've in my eyes, but it doesn't really matter. They do well enough and pick enough times that regardless of what happens, there should be a strong young future for the Detroit Red Wings. They've also got 9 picks in what looks to be a strong 2022 class of prospects, so the rich will continue to get richer. Development and player management will be key to maximize what they're getting out of their picks, but they seem to be doing just fine as it is, whatever that may be.

Edmonton Oilers
Top Prospect: Dylan Holloway
Will's Pick: Evan Bouchard

The McDavid-Draisaitl Show is certainly spellbinding, but a large part of me is pained watching Connor McDavid not even come close to competing for a Stanley Cup in the playoffs almost every year. A major driving force behind that is a complete lack of good value depth on the Oilers, and what often is the major driving force behind a complete lack of good value depth is poor drafting and development. While I believe things are changing ever so slightly in Edmonton, there's still work to be done. I like Evan Bouchard, but there are flaws that, while improved, are still there. I didn't mind Philip Broberg, but I did mind him going over names like, I don't know, Cole Caufield? The idea of Connor McDavid passing pucks to and working the offensive zone with Cole Caufield for 10 years sounded like the greatest thing to happen to hockey since Connor McDavid hit the ice in 2015, but alas, here we are. Broberg has come along just fine in Sweden, but in my view there's still a ways to go to to match up with the projection of the players drafted shortly after him that could have filled a clear need for the Oilers as soon as this coming season.

In any case, the Oilers have built an interesting potential support cast of offensive skill in Ty Tullio, Raphael Lavoie, Xavier Bourgault, Carter Savoie, and Matvei Petrov, but there are many picks that seem to be foregoing real upside at the time of the pick. It's a mixed bag for the Oilers here, but there's potential. They've got the best player in the world playing at his prime, and they are going to start striking, because the iron is really, really hot.

Florida Panthers
Top Prospect: Spencer Knight
Will's Pick: Matthew Samoskevich

I find the new iteration of the Florida Panthers fascinating. They immediately found success under new GM Barry Zito this season, their 2020 Draft crop was an interesting combination of hard workers with strong resilience and aggressive offense, and while Emil Heineman is now in Calgary, Justin Sourdif took a nice step ahead with Vancouver this past season. Mackie Samoskevich, drafted in the 1st round of the 2021 Draft is pure skill upside, and names like Denisenko, Heponiemi, Benning and Ekmark all fit the same profile. Have I ever spoken about Anton Lundell? I can't remember, but he seems pretty good and should fit in just fine behind fellow countryman Alex Barkov at some point in the near future.

Honestly, I have a hard time really figuring out what it is that's bringing the Panthers the success they've had all of a sudden, but I do like the group of players they've put together who may be making their way to the NHL in the future. They continue to take small, calculated steps, and putting undervalued players in a position to succeed in a strongly defined role, and with Joel Quenneville at the helm, anything is possible.

Los Angeles Kings
Top Prospect: Quinton Byfield
Will's Pick: Quinton Byfield

The LA Kings bring a strategy that seems like a hybrid between the sheer volume approach of a team like Detroit, with the "just draft whoever shouldn't be available" strategy of a team like Dallas. Brandt Clarke being the player who just happened to fall in their laps sounds fine to me. Alex Turcotte had a strong AHL campaign with a World Junior gold medal on top, and he'll have my attention this season for sure. Quinton Byfield to my eye also looked much better in his limited NHL time than his lack of production might indicate, but he's also nowhere near developing, having just turned 19. I have every belief that he's going to be a top level force in the NHL. Why is he in the franchise tier? I believe with the size, skill, speed, creativity and shot quality he's got at his best, he's an absolutely dominant hockey player. He's somewhat inconsistent and not extremely agile on his feet, but his ceiling puts him in this tier to me if he hits it.

Going beyond the obvious names however, where shall we begin? There's a bit of a high floor with names like Helenius, Kirsanov, Bjornfot, Pinelli, Faber, and Grans, but there's also plenty of potential with names like Kaliyev, Simontaival, Nousianen, Spence, Fagemo, Thomas and Madden. Somewhere in this massive sea of raw talent must be at least a few net positive impact players in the NHL who can be great per dollar value when LA turns their boat around. I could go on all day about how the Kings have built a war chest of talent at all skater positions in a variety of playing types, but that would probably be boring the majority of you. What matters is that the LA Kings could be a very, very nasty team to play against for quite a while if all goes to plan over the next few years.

Minnesota Wild
Top Prospect: Jesper Wallstedt
Will's Pick: Marat Khusnutdinov

In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust. In Judd we trust...

Since coming out of the Paul Fenton era, the Minnesota Wild have had a hell of a turnaround on NHL ice, and a hell of an improvement in their prospect pipeline. Marco Rossi slipping to 9th overall in 2020 is absolutely laughable. Jesper Wallstedt falling to 20th could very well be the same. Everyone knows my feelings about Marat Khusnutdinov. Those who wrote off Matt Boldy after one season might be looking a bit foolish. There's a remarkably talented group at the top for Minnesota.

Similar to the LA Kings though, Minnesota has an embarrassment of rock solid options on the way in names like Adam Beckman, Carson Lambos, Calen Addison, Jack Peart, and others on the C-level above. Lambos was a guy who I think was a bit overcorrected on by a few scouting outlets, and I certainly have learned a few things after watching Daemon Hunt in the year since being drafted. Would he and Ryan O'Rourke have been the guys I pushed for at their respective picks over say, Noel Gunler and Jean-Luc Foudy? Probably not, but they're definitely a pair that could fill solid roles for the Wild in the future. Raw potential upside picks in names like Bankier, Shaw, Masters, Pillar and Khovanov could also work their way into depth roles that could provide great value and scoring for the team as well. The future in Minnesota appears just as bright as almost any other NHL team, and a lot of that can be traced to their current draft strategy.

Montreal Canadiens
Top Prospect: Cole Caufield
Will's Pick: Sean Farrell

The Montreal Canadiens are a tough one. They've drafted often, and in many situations, drafted quite well in my opinion, but part of me is a bit concerned they're changing gears to pursue a style of play that is unlikely to capture long term success; a strategy only validated by their recent run to the Stanley Cup Final. Through it all, they've added a plethora of rock solid options in a variety of roles. Jan Mysak, Jesse Ylonen and of course Cole Caufield bring pure offensive skill and upside. Mattias Norlinder, Jayden Struble, and Josh Brook bring dynamic, mobile energy to the defense group. Sean Farrell, Rhett Pitlick, and Xavier Simoneau bring relentless energy. There's a lot to like over the years, but I also believe some good players have been left on the board come draft time.

It isn't all bad, and in fact Montreal has a very strong group in multiple positions to keep them competitive down the line. Trevor Timmins is widely respected for a reason, and I have high hopes for a number of the players drafted, but time will tell with just how well their strategy works in the NHL.

Nashville Predators
Top Prospect: Yaroslav Askarov
Will's Pick: David Farrance

It seems that Nashville is one of those teams that's teetering back and forth on the Compete/Rebuild Spectrum, and has been doing so since their cup run in 2018. They've got large contracts on the books, haven't been drafting a ton, and haven't had a ton of success when they do qualify for the playoffs. That being said, when they do draft, the Predators have been largely impressive in my view. Yaroslav Askarov may be the goalie to get the Predators truly back to contention after an excellent season in Russia, and his new teammate Fyodor Svechkov should be a rock solid piece of a core that includes other interesting names with great skill. Philip Tomasino, Zach L'Heureux, Alexander Campbell and Luke Evangelista are all fun players to watch for varying reasons, and Tomasino's great AHL experience last year only builds more confidence.

The real benefit with Nashville to me has always been their focus on nailing picks for their defense group. There was a time where the Predators carried an embarrassment of riches on the defensive side in the NHL, and they weren't afraid of dynamic, puck controlling defensemen regardless of size. They were greatly rewarded for it, and I believe there's a time coming where the same will continue to be true. I adore David Farrance's offensive game, I still believe Frederic Allard is one of the more underrated non-NHL defenders for his age, and Spencer Stastney has slowly continued to improve with Notre Dame. Further down the depth charts, Marc Del Gaizo, Luke Reid, Anton Olsson, and others all fit in the "let's bet on mobility" category of defense prospect, which is always fine by me depending on where you're drafting the player.

The Predators are a team that has competed in the past and drafted somewhat rarely, but done well to fill their cupboard as best they can, especially on defense. It's a solid group, but there's more work to be done to get the Predators back to previous form through their prospect development pipeline.

New Jersey Devils
Top Prospect: Luke Hughes
Will's Pick: Arseni Gritsyuk

I'm really hoping the Devils can start their upswing back to contention starting this season. I'm really hoping Jack Hughes breaks out, because you can see that he's clearly capable of doing so. I'm really hoping that the expectations and hype surrounding Luke Hughes isn't overwhelming. I'm really hoping people are patient with Alexander Holtz after an up and down season. There's a lot of balls in the air for the Devils, but if things break right, they could have a great group to work with for the next few years as they continue to gain ground in the NHL.

All of Holtz, Luke Hughes, and Dawson Mercer should be valuable members of the team for years, especially in the offensive direction. There's a solid group that could develop into pieces down the lineup like Samu Salminen, Chase Stillman, Kevin Bahl, and the illustrious Shakir Mukhamadullin. The interesting longshots like Arseni Gritsyuk, Benjamin Baumgartner, and Reilly Walsh all are names that have captured my interest over the years.

The Devils have been rebuilding for a while, and signs are bright that the worst is behind them. Have they drafted extraordinarily well? I wouldn't go that far, but they've cast a very wide net with many picks, and it should bring a balanced, strong group of players to the NHL slowly over the next few years.

New York Islanders
Top Prospect: Aatu Raty
Will's Pick: Aaty Raty

This is another one of those Larry David gif teams. Some picks stick out more than others, but more often than not... there isn't a ton going on here. Landing Aatu Raty in the late 2nd round is a great swing to take on a player in my top 15 in 2021, and I think there's a ton of value there should he be able to gain some consistency against men. Alex Jefferies stuck out in my viewings of names I was unfamiliar with in 2020 as well. While the ceiling for William Dufour isn't likely extremely high, he's a combination of aggression, physicality, and skill for a large player that I could easily see filling a bottom six role on a team like the Islanders. On that note, the Islanders strike me as a team that might benefit from a strategy similar to the Florida Panthers moving forward. Finding hard working, physical, but skilled players who have talent on both sides of the ice if not a massive ceiling feels like a pipeline that lines up with what the NHL product is trying to be.

I do like the idea of Ruslan Iskhakov, I have a soft spot for Blade Jenkins, Robin Salo has been up and down but steadily improving, and there could be nice low upside picks in names like Tomas Machu, Matias Rajaniemi, and Sam Bolduc on defense.

The Islanders may not have the best prospect cupboard, but there are interesting names, and if there's anything Lou Lamoriello seems to gravitate to, it's trading draft picks. If you aren't drafting, it's tough to build a great pipeline. On the other hand, the team has been deep in the playoffs multiple years in a row now, so who cares, eh?

New York Rangers
Top Prospect: Zac Jones
Will's Pick: Nils Lundkvist

The Rangers have drafted often, and largely drafted quite well in my view. I wasn't a huge fan of the Braden Schneider pick, but he took a big step last year with his confidence, puck carrying ability and deception in transition that I didn't see in my sample in 2020, and while I wouldn't move him up my 2020 board a tremendous amount, he'd be moved up more than many other names in his range. My thoughts on Zac Jones are not new, and as much as I like Nils Lundkvist, I wonder how long he lasts until he's used as a trade chip to help accelerate the Rangers' path to contention. He's undersized, not the greatest defensive player, and leans offensively, which just feels like it doesn't quite line up with the new management/ownership group with the Rangers. Beyond the big names, I thought Brennan Othmann was a bit of a punt in the 2021 Draft, but he's no slouch and has a clear path to the NHL as a physical winger with a lovely shot and quick hands under pressure. Karl Henriksson, Brett Berard, and Leevi Aaltonen are all a ton of fun, and Ryder Korczak could be a lot of fun as well. Will Cuylle, Adam Edstrom, and Kalle Vaisanen are high-impact players with size and imposition that could fill out the roster in a way that lines up with the Rangers' apparent philosophy a bit better. Vaisanen is one I'm especially curious about if his speed generation and skill level can improve over time.

There's a lot going right for the Rangers in their pipeline, in my opinion. They're another team that has drafted often and largely drafted well with plenty of potential for quite a few NHL pieces at varying stages of development. A Jack Eichel trade may change things a bit, but in my view, if you're getting Jack Eichel, there isn't a ton that I wouldn't put on the table from this list.

Ottawa Senators
Top Prospect: Jake Sanderson
Will's Pick: Roby Jarventie

I just looked out of my window and there are about 48 slightly bearded scowling men wearing foam fingers, all wearing Ottawa Senators hats and are standing in my yard. I know exactly why, so let me get this out of the way: The Ottawa Senators have the greatest management team, the greatest scouting team, the greatest fanbase, and the greatest hockey team to ever walk the face of the Earth.

In all seriousness, as much as the Ottawa Senators have become a bit of a meme, I sincerely admire the culture and identity they've crafted, and how much they're sticking to it. They know what they're trying to be, and they're just being it without caring what the general public cares about them. The Ottawa Senators seem to want to be a team of Sickos. Brady Tkachuks everywhere, interspersed with high skill/high upside players to take flyers on. Could there be another Drake Batherson hiding in a Carson Latimer, Oliver Johansson, or Zack Ostapchuk? I wouldn't count it out, and I'm a fan of all of those players.

While I still think drafting him at 5 left a massive amount of potential on the board, Jake Sanderson had a great freshman campaign with North Dakota which can't be denied. He looks like an exciting 200 foot threat defender who will slot in just fine on the Senators defense corps once he makes the jump. Laugh all you want about Tyler Boucher at 10, but he fits the mold that the Senators seem to be chasing to a T, and had he played an entire season last year, he could've found his way into my first round. Tenth overall is still absolutely bewildering to me, however.

With Alex Formenton continuing to develop, Shane Pinto looking like a solid two-way centre, Roby Jarventie finally showcasing his potential in the Liiga, and solid goaltending depth with Filip Gustavsson, Mads Sogaard and Leevi Merilainen, the Senators almost have no excuses if they don't find a way out of the basement in the next few years. All of this is leaving out the graduated youngsters playing on the NHL team already in Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris, Erik Bransstrom and more. Are they conventional? No. Will their grand strategy work? Perhaps. Is it a ton of fun to watch happen? Absolutely.

Philadelphia Flyers
Top Prospect: Cam York
Will's Pick: Bobby Brink

This is a weird one. The Flyers NHL roster seems to be in compete mode with some significant offseason moves across the board, and they've missed the playoffs every other year since 2012 which is probably a stat that means nothing, but is interesting regardless. The upside is that they're on the clock to make the playoffs this year, so that's absolutely going to happen, probably.

The prospect pipeline in Philadelphia is interestingly well rounded. I loved the swing they took on Samu Tuomaala. He's a player that I found frustrating, but clearly promising. Zayde Wisdom was a wonderful story from 2020 that plays an admirable game that I think could carve a role in the NHL for himself. Bobby Brink is a personal favourite of mine who continues to impress, and I'm hoping for a big college junior season out of him with Denver College. I knew he would take time to develop, and I imagine patience will pay off for Philadelphia.

It might be a surprise to see first round picks Tyson Foerster and Cam York in here, and to me, they and Brink are really on the cusp of that "core" level. Foerster is a heavily offensive leaning player, but that offense is undeniable. Cam York is a talented offensive defender as well, but his development since draft time just knocks him down enough to be below the names in that B-level like Jake Sanderson, Alex Turcotte and others.

Off the beaten path, Jay O'Brien was a bizarre choice in the 1st round, but it ain't over yet I guess, and Emil Andrae is a player I have had a hard time seeing a path to the NHL for, but slippery Connor McClennon, KHL goaltender Alexei Kolosov, and QMJHL breakout hotshot Elliot Desnoyers are interesting pickups in the middle of the pack.

The Flyers are going to be interesting to watch for the next couple of years. Key NHL players will continue to age, and they've sold off some picks to acquire current talent, but there is an interesting group of supplemental talent that could grow into something more over time.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Top Prospect: Samuel Poulin
Will's Pick: Lukas Svejkovsky

It feels weird to say it, but the beginning of the end of the Crosby/Malkin/Letang era is likely coming to a close in the coming years. Those three pillars of the franchise will be 35 or older after this season, and the pipeline Pittsburgh is putting together is a little underwhelming to say the least. Pittsburgh has drafted twice in the first round since 2013, and one of those first round picks has since been traded and reacquired, so not having a tremendous pipeline makes sense. With the picks they do have, I think Pittsburgh has done reasonably well to add a decent crop of "we'll see" combinations of skill and smarts, with multiple legitimate goaltending prospects in Joel Blomqvist, Calle Clang and Filip Lindberg.

I've liked Nathan Legare in Quebec when I've caught him recently, with power, skill and goal scoring in combination, and Lukas Svejkovsky was one of my underrated picks from 2020. I get the feeling that Pittsburgh may continue to sell off assets in order to stay competitive while the aging core is still intact, but when the time comes, there's potentially a decent baseline to rebuild with.

San Jose Sharks
Top Prospect: William Eklund
Will's Pick: Daniil Gushchin

Doug Wilson Jr. clearly leans in similar directions as I do, based on their draft history since 2019. William Eklund at 7 in 2021 is a gift from the hockey gods to say the least. The C-level group I've highlighted are all very impressive players in various ways that I could easily see filling out a strong San Jose roster in the future. That group of Coe, Wiesblatt, Bordeleau and Robins all coming from the same draft crop is absolutely bonkers, and I'm hopeful that at least some of these players can fill NHL nets as well as they've filled nets outside the NHL. They lack some depth at the centre position, and a true franchise-altering talent, but for all we know, that may be on the way in 2022 or 2023.

Theo Jacobsson, Liam Gilmartin, Timofei Spitserov, Max McCue, and Santeri Hatakka are all later picks that are sneakily interesting to me with a bunch of upside as well. The franchise's future is in good hands with the group leading the charge, and they're one of the few teams where I'm quite confident on that.

Seattle Kraken
Top Prospect: Matthew Beniers
Will's Pick: Matthew Beniers

There really isn't much to say here. Seattle has been underwhelming when it comes to adding a war chest of draft picks in the coming years, and their 2021 crop was also somewhat questionable. Of course, Matthew Beniers is a phenomenal building block who was my #1 player on my board, but outside of Cole Lind, and perhaps Jacob Melanson and Ryker Evans, I don't see a ton in the crop that likely pushes the needle a ton. I don't mind Ryker Evans, but I do mind him at 35th overall, but Jacob Melanson played a somewhat limited role and produced well with creative skill and one on one talent.

I'm crossing my fingers for the Kraken, but so far things have been... strange. Matty Beniers is still Matty Beniers, and there's plenty of talent in 2022 and 2023 for them to choose from to continue building.

St. Louis Blues
Top Prospect: Simon Robertsson
Will's Pick: Simon Robertsson

Similar to Pittsburgh, this is a team a little more concerned with competing recently than drafting a ton of players. I wasn't a huge fan of Zachary Bolduc or Jake Neighbours, let alone in the first round, but it is possible for me to be wrong. Simon Robertsson on the other hand is a player I've been a big fan of, and getting him in the 3rd round was absolutely wild. He's got a wonderful shot, great skill to evade pressure, and I feel like with enough time and patience, he'll learn to be more assertive and confident against men while working on his straight line speed generation in training.

Tyson Galloway was an interesting player I was glad to see picked in 2021, with great defensive instincts and a combination of mobility and size that I respected greatly. His decisions with the puck and fundamental passing ability undid a lot of the good in his game, but to me, it just points to the areas to focus on in development. I think there's something there, but it may take time. On the other hand, Tyler Tucker is similar but flipped around. His offensive game and aggression is admirable, but rounding things out will be a hurdle for him to overcome in pro hockey. Before you ask, Scott Perunovich, being a 20 year old at time of drafting, has aged out of my tracking document, but I do like him as well.

The Blues are in a similar boat to the Penguins. The pipeline is a bit middling, and their NHL lineup is expensive and aging in key areas. They may be able to hold onto their league position for a little bit longer, but I don't see an enormously promising group that can keep them in contention status in the next generation of the league right now.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Top Prospect: Dylan Duke
Will's Pick: Dylan Duke

I'm not going to sit here and judge the reigning repeat Stanley Cup Champions for the quality of their franchise. The team they've build, regardless of how they've done so, deserves respect. At the draft table, I can't help but wonder about what the plan is, but again, maybe I should stop thinking so much and let the champions do their jobs. Could Jack Finley be a fine bottom six centre in the NHL? Absolutely. Would I have taken him at 57th overall as the first name off my board in 2020? No. I like Eamon Powell, especially where they drafted him, and Dylan Duke where they landed him in 2021 could turn out to be larceny.

They haven't drafted a ton either, so this could all be forgivable in the same way it is for teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, but for a team loaded with skill and tenacity, their draft strategy seems to lean more heavily towards the latter these days. We'll see how it turns out for them, and I am not sitting here saying the Lightning are destined for failure, but this is a hodgepodge of names that I don't see a tremendous amount of value in long term.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Top Prospect: Rodion Amirov
Will's Pick: Timothy Liljegren

It is painfully obvious where the Toronto Maple Leafs are with their NHL team. Everyone and their dogs are making them into a laughing stock. Luckily, their amateur scouting team has largely done a strong job adding a combination of smart value pickups, and risky big swings on upside that have nicely set up the team to have some per dollar efficiency on their NHL team over the next few years. Trading Kasperi Kapanen and landing a package that led to Rodion Amirov is a smart play, with Amirov taking steps in the KHL last season and coming to North America full time in 2022, looking to crack the 22-23 Leafs roster. Nick Robertson continues to come into his own, and should he learn to play a bit more dynamically, there could be a serious scoring winger on the team as soon as this coming season.

The supporting cast is also strong, people seem to think the clock has run out on Timothy Liljegren, but I'm still optimistic, considering he's been learning in pro hockey for four seasons now and always a bright spot on an up and down Marlies roster. Is he the top-5 pick many thought he was in 2016? No, but a serviceable defender down the Leafs lineup? I could see it. Topi Niemela had an excellent season in Finland, Roni Hirvonen is a low upside player, but still a potential NHL player, and Rasmus Sandin will hopefully be earning full time minutes down the lineup this year should he quicken his decisions and settle into NHL pace better than he had done last season. New addition Matthew Knies was a player I didn't have ranked, but was unaware he had battled COVID issues, and had a strong back half of the year. He brings size, puck protection and a strong possession game, which the Leafs pipeline seems to lack a bit of, and if there's a bottom six 200-foot role player there, that's totally fine with me.

The big swings in the dark really interest me, though. Veeti Miettinen had a great freshman year in college showcasing his remarkable shot while also showcasing the dual threat offense he hinted at in my tracking. Dmitri Ovchinnikov is hopefully going to earn more than 2 minutes of ice time a game in the KHL because his MHL time last year was simply dominant. Ty Voit is a name that probably would've been drafted earlier had the OHL played, but the weirdness of the 2021 Draft might have given Toronto great value here. Free agent signings Keith Petruzzelli (a Marlies signing, so not included in the list) and Alex Steeves have been NCAA standouts that I could've easily targeted, and if you get anything out of those guys, it's a win.

Toronto is a team with resources and financing, and they've put it to good use, in my opinion. The NHL team is objectively talented and still has a heck of a hill to climb, but for a team ideally making the playoffs, the pipeline of youngsters is strong with plenty of value in a number of positions.

Vancouver Canucks
Top Prospect: Vasili Podkolzin
Will's Pick: Joni Jurmo

First off, my condolences to the family of Patrik Jonsson and the Vancouver Canucks after his passing from prostate cancer this week. Fuck Cancer.

The Vasili Podkolzin show is finally coming to town, and I'm pretty excited. He's going to be a player Canucks fans really enjoy watching, I think. Relentless physical energy, good skill around the net, strong north-south approach to the game, and probably a player who could wear a letter on the front of their jersey one day.

The rest of the pack isn't anything to scoff at either. I was surprised at Danila Klimovich going off the board so early, but the guy can shoot, step out of pressure with skill, and brings an intensity to the game that Vancouver seems to target. Joni Jurmo is a personal favorite of mine with tremendous potential. There's great length, reach, speed, skill, and confidence with Jurmo, and if he can refine his defensive game over time, I have high hopes. On that note, names like Jonathan Myrenberg is a somewhat similar package of traits that caught my eye and looked pretty good in my tracking work. Similar to Toronto's Ty Voit, Connor Lockhart is a wild card that I think could provide good value for Vancouver after seeing him with Erie in 2019-20 here and there.

Vancouver's done a solid job in the post-Brackett era to add a number of players with potential, and a few players with translatable skills. Has it been perfect? No, but the Canucks are adding well with strong depth potential at all positions.

Vegas Golden Knights
Top Prospect: Peyton Krebs
Will's Pick: Daniil Chayka

A team that consistently goes deep in the NHL has also added a strong pipeline of names in a variety of rounds in the draft. You most definitely should not forget about Peyton Krebs, who is a heck of a hockey player, with a ton of potential. Zach Dean is a high upside pick that I found struggled to find consistency, but showed great speed and skill in combination. Improvements to leverage that speed and skill could help find space and fight off pressure more consistently. Once he gets a second with the puck in the offensive zone, he can be one dangerous player.

A player he might be passing pucks to on a regular basis is Brendan Brisson, who had an up and down freshman year, but he's still a hell of a triggerman with good skill under pressure to find space. I'm a fan of Brisson and how he processes play quickly on puck touches, but there's work to be done to build the pace to reach his potential. On a similar note, Daniil Chayka is a player who objectively did not have a great year last season. At times, I saw flashes of the player he could be with mobility, skill and creativity, but it completely evaporated far more than not. If he can recapture his mobile, offensive form he showed with Guelph, the Golden Knights could have a good buy-low pick here.

The rest of the pack is a bit up and down, but don't sleep on Ivan Morozov. I don't think he's too far away from being a level up, and same goes for Lukas Cormier to a lesser extent. I've also still got time for Lukas Elvenes, and Jackson Hallum was impressive in my limited viewing of him last year in the USHL.

The Golden Knights may have gone a little off my board in places over the years, but they've build a good cupboard of skilled players, physical players, creative playmakers, and potentially dynamic 200 foot players that should be able to help the Golden Knights stay competitive.

Washington Capitals
Top Prospect: Connor McMichael
Will's Pick: Alex Alexeyev

There isn't much going on here in terms of depth for Washington, but don't sleep on the names they have drafted. Connor McMichael is legit and could be a dual threat offensive winger who can slot into an NHL lineup sooner rather than later. Hendrix Lapierre had a good bounceback year, and I've always been a fan of Alexander Alexeyev since he was drafted. Martin Fehervary may not have huge upside, he has continued to impress coaches with his defensive play and could slot into the Capitals lineup as a reliable backend presence. Brent Johnson may have been a later pick, but I have a ton of faith that his great year in the USHL only bodes well for his future. He's skilled, intelligent with the puck, and shows inconsistent promise on defending exits and entries. There's a lot of potential, and for a guy who was a USHL rookie last year, he had some seriously impressive moments.

The rest of the pack isn't the greatest group, but Vincent Iorio may have depth potential, Oskar Magnusson is fun to watch, and Hakon Hanelt is an interesting wild card to pick up. The Capitals have been competitive for a while, and that window may slowly be closing, but when it matters, they've drafted well and landed good upside. There's room for growth as there may be with a number of teams, but considering the hand they've been dealt, I have few issues with the Capitals' pipeline.

Winnipeg Jets
Top Prospect: Cole Perfetti
Will's Pick: Anton Johannesson

Similar to Washington, the Jets haven't drafted often, but they've done well with the picks they've had, especially over the last two seasons. Selecting just eight times, they've stolen Cole Perfetti, landed potentially fantastic value in Chaz Lucius, landed a strong net-area winger in Daniel Torgersson, massive wild card Anton Johannesson, took a great swing on upside in Nikita Chibrikov, and another great swing on skilled upside in Dmitri Kuzmin. Picking Dmitri Rashevsky as a late round bet isn't the worst idea ever. I'm not totally as sold on his upside as others, but he's a shifty scoring winger that is off to a great start in the KHL this year. It's also a little fun that he suited up for five separate teams last year across three leagues in Russia.

Leon Gawanke and Declan Chisholm are other interesting names on defense that have been fun to watch when I've caught them, and between all these offensive leaning players, at least one of them can hopefully land a good role for themselves with the Jets. David Gustafsson and Ville Heinola are still kicking around as well, and I'll be hopeful to see them landing more ice time this season. With regards to Kristian Vesalainen, the clock is truly starting to tick with him. He's 22, and while his production outside the NHL improved last season, this is an important year for Vesalainen to find form in the NHL.

Considering the Jets have drafted just 13 times in the last three years, there's an impressive amount of talent in their system that could easily lead to some good depth potential with some strong core pieces up front. If things break right for names like Johannesson, Kuzmin, Gawanke or Chisholm, the Jets might've found themselves a heck of a dynamic offensive defense group. They just have to find a way to deploy them in the NHL consistently to give them a chance to play their best game.

Bonus: Team Scouching
Top Prospect: Rodion Amirov
Will's Pick: Jean-Luc Foudy

And so, we get to the greatest team of them all: The one that only exists in my mind. If you're unfamiliar, I draft a team of names that I would've picked had I had every pick my local Toronto Maple Leafs have had since 2016. Some players have graduated, many are still developing. The idea is to essentially put my money where my mouth is as a talent evaluator. It's easy to identify 30-50 names that are legitimately names you like, but it's another to find talent through all 7 rounds consistently when 32 other teams are competing for many of the same players. The only rule is that the player has to be available at the time of the pick, and my picks are made live at draft time since 2019. Of course, development is arguably just as important as evaluating talent in the first place, but it's still a worthwhile exercise to explore the strengths and weaknesses of my work and avoiding framing things with the benefit of hindsight down the road.

I feel pretty good about this group overall. I was a big believer in Simon Robertsson, so adding him to the crop in the 2nd round of 2021 felt right, considering the other names on the board. Adam Fox, and Rasmus Andersson are among the graduated names on defense, but Liljegren, Addison, Tichacek, Gustafsson, and Kokkonen are all names I still very much believe in. Many players on my list have gone undrafted, and that's totally fine by me. Names like Jerry Turkulainen continue to impress in Finland, Pavel Tyutnev continues to fly under the radar with Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, and two of my 2021 picks went undrafted, but as they're defenders under 6' tall, I'm not particularly surprised. Looking back at why certain names have gone undrafted or stagnated in their development is also a learning experience for me as well, a person who is always looking to check my work and learn when I can. The point is that I feel confident about the team I've built, and relative to the current Toronto Maple Leafs, there are a few names that might potentially help them solidify their roster on cost-effective contracts that they don't currently have. Mikhail Berdin is a strong netminder, Daniel Vladar was on my list but has since graduated, and Dmitri Nikolayev has stopped about 94% of the pucks he's faced for what feels like the last five seasons. If he has no interest in ever coming to the NHL, fine, but if he ever does, I'm glad I snagged him with a late round pick in 2020.

So there you have it. 32 overviews of the pipelines in the NHL. I hope you're all as excited for the upcoming season as I am, with tons and tons of highly talented players available in 2022, and tons of fascinating drafted prospects who I'm looking forward to watching develop over the year. If I had to pick the pipelines that I'm most excited about, Detroit, Carolina, and San Jose all come to mind. In terms of efficiency, Winnipeg, Nashville and to an extent Minnesota are all there. I'm not really in the game of who has the "worst" pipeline, because many of those teams are competitive in the NHL, and when you don't draft, it's hard to guide probability in your favor.

In any case, I hope you enjoyed this overview of the landscape of the league and it's future, and I'm looking forward to sharing what I find on the upcoming class with you over the course of the season.

Be safe, get vaccinated, and if you're Canadian, vote!

Scouching's Final 2021 Draft Rankings

7/15/2021

For starters, the accompanying video can be found at this link, so check that out once you're done reading this! If you're coming from the video, welcome to the full writeup!

What a year. To be honest, I'm exhausted. I need a break. It's been nonstop tracking and video production in my spare time since about August 2019 for me. While I love doing the work and providing you wonderful people with all the information I've gathered, it's a lot of hockey. This year didn't bring many changes to my workflow, and I'm of the belief that if you've done your homework, even setting aside the players who haven't played, you should still be able to come away with a strong group of players for this year's draft. I don't see much in the way of elite game-changing talent, but certain names could grow into such players. I do see a lot of really interesting high upside, low floor players that could develop into useful core pieces, or struggle to gain a comfortable role in the NHL. Come draft day, I feel like I'd much rather be drafting in the 8-12, and 20+ ranges of the first round more than anything, and just pile up a stash of 2nd and 3rd round picks to swing on a bunch of interesting names. Unfortunately for me, as of time of writing, Team Scouching is looking at just three names to add, but I'm really hoping some good ones slip.

As always, we'll be streaming through both days of the draft, so be sure to set your reminders for Day 1 and Day 2! If you have any last minute questions, there will be a Scouching Live on Wednesday night at 9:30pm EST, and another one on Friday, starting at noon, so be sure to check those out as well!

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full list unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Without further ado, behold an early-final rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft, along with explanations of some the decisions made. As always, thank you all for your support, I hope you and yours are safe and well and remain so.

Tier 1

This tier has largely stayed the same for months, and I’m still relatively confident. All of these players are, or either could very easily be joys to watch that teams could potentially build strong teams around, or use to continue building strong teams with.
Luke Hughes is basically a full year younger than many players in this range, and I think that gives him huge potential for growth. He’s a player that will only be limited by his willingness to patch the defensive holes in his game, and his willingness to use linemates consistently without taking on too much responsibility himself. However his individual talent with the puck on his stick is undeniable, and the potential is limitless as long as he’s willing to round out his game and mature as a kid looking to become a pro athlete in the 2020’s.
What more can I say about Fabian Lysell? I don’t think I’d take him #1, but I love the potential of his game if he can learn to push and pull the flow of the game a bit better. He’s extremely active, covers ice extremely well, and plays with extraordinary pace already. Continuing to put in the work necessary to get stronger and more dynamic should help him earn more ice time and gain more confidence and experience against adults in the coming years.
Jesper Wallstedt is doing something no draft eligible goaltender has ever done before by playing in the SHL, and hasn’t been destroyed doing so. He faces heavy dangerous shot workloads and doesn’t look out of place, he’s palpably technical, and if there is potential #1 upside, consistent, quality goaltending makes success far easier. At some point, the risk of taking a goalie with this profile will become easier to digest as the potential of other options becomes somewhat limited quickly relative to Wallstedt, and I still feel like a team will take a chance on him later than he should go. He just gives me a good feeling, which may not be great analysis, but I’ve greatly enjoyed watching him all season, even if I’m usually on team “no goalies in the first round”. Most goalies aren’t Jesper Wallstedt.
I’ve had Matthew Beniers at #1 through all of 2021, but if someone wanted to convince me of William Eklund being #1, I’d have time for the discussion. I like Beniers’ projectable 200-foot, high intensity game with great playmaking potential, but Eklund’s offensive creativity, evasiveness, dual threat offense, and ability to navigate into open ice with pace and speed is just a ton of fun to watch. Injuries and illness put a damper on his season, but if that means he starts to slip in the draft, if his medical checks all come back clear, he could easily start entering steal territory. Beniers might be an easier, more projectable option with a lot of growth potential, but Eklund has that flash and professional results that can’t be ignored.

Tier 2

I’ve had to split the top 12 in half here, and all the defensemen are in this group. I have concerns about all of these players to truly become the most impactful NHL players in the draft class, but they should all become perfectly useful core pieces to build with.
I’m still an Aatu Raty believer through all the stuff that’s been said. He’s documented as having struggles managing his expectations of himself over this season, and I just came away thinking this was a great player who was locked behind mental limitations. The ol’ “gripping your stick too hard” thing… His offensive transition game is better than the Liiga Finns I tracked last year, and was a huge driver of shot attempts for his team without much support. I think that the right team could hit a home run with this player if you just get on his level and get him reset.
Dylan Guenther is a strange one. I was underwhelmed by his U18 performance, but the playmaking intelligence and patience with the puck is really impressive. I’m not entirely sure his offense translates as much as his gobsmacking point totals may indicate due to his lack of high end dynamic footspeed, and his shot selection was frustrating at times, but as a complementary offensive piece in a top six, I can see it for him.
Mason McTavish, top five pick? I mean, maybe. He’s got a heck of a shot, solid pace and skill to his game, and tenacity that is hard to find in this draft. I feel like he can settle in on a teams 2nd or 3rd line with power play upside as a perimeter threat, but I think there are players that are bigger swings on some potentially bigger impact. That being said, I don’t think there’s a player that has improved as dramatically as McTavish since where he was last season.
Speaking of bigger upside, Kent Johnson. I think there’s a ton of room to grow, and I do hope my report didn’t come off as disrespectful. His mind for the game and skill level are a ton of fun, but sometimes it can get the best of him, and more experience and patience should refine things to make him the skilled and unpredictable offensive weapon.
The defense here could be tackled as a whole. I’m curious about the raw potential in Simon Edvinsson’s refined defensive talent and if he can learn to manage the puck with more confidence and consistency, I wonder about Brandt Clarke with some serious improvement to his speed generation and full stride agility, and while I’m cooler on Owen Power, there’s potential with the offensive rush talent and offensive pass vision he showcases with the puck. I think there’s a lot of work to do to make him as impactful as he could be, but I’ll be fascinated to see how his career goes.

Tier 3

These are all players that I think have a ton of potential as useful complimentary pieces with plenty of potential for more with development.
My thoughts on Matthew Coronato are well articulated but I feel most confident of anyone in this group that he’ll be a guy coaches don’t mind playing with his smarts, creativity under pressure, and dual threat offense. He may not score as much as he has with Chicago, but with some quicker and skilled wingers, I could easily see Coronato being a relatively valuable forward with centre capabilities down the road.
Rest assured that I would’ve made a Logan Stankoven report if I could’ve. I just didn’t have enough data. I adore, and I mean adore watching Logan Stankoven play. The data I do have is simply put, spectacular. An 80% DSAT, 21 DPass/60, 15 iDSAT/60, a 78.7% OCZT, and a 75% Pass% makes him one of the most devastating offensive players available. Yes, he’s small, and his level of involvement in transition is questionable, but when he’s got the puck, goodness gracious. If he’s available in the 2nd round, just draft him. Just do it.
I’ve bumped up Cole Sillinger since putting out his report. The scoring talent, and potential for playmaking based on his play with Medicine Hat brings me comfort that his individualistic results are Sioux Falls-related rather than Sillinger underperforming. The shot quality, the skill under pressure, and burgeoning physical intensity is interesting, and he could at least be a devastating power play winger really solid upside.
Sometimes I go back on early Scouching Reports and rethink things in retrospect. That has not happened with Fyodor Svechkov. He’s such a dynamic and crafty forward with excellent defensive habits. Svechkov is on his way to SKA St. Petersburg to develop further and I’d expect better linemates to elevate his game beyond where he is now. He may be a slow burn, but if NHL teams forget about him and he starts slipping, look out.
Simon Robertsson? Same deal as Svechkov. I still think there's a great offensive player there. Very skilled, great shot, smart evasion skill with the puck, and improving on his feet year over year.

Tier 4

This group is a total mess and I have no idea what to really think. It’s a group of players who I think could be useful, perfectly usable lineup players at their respective positions, players who are clearly raw with strong fundamentals with unclear lineup potential at the moment, and players largely held back by dramatic inconsistency.
The best example of the first to me is Oskar Olausson of HV71. There’s skill, intensity, pressure application without the puck, intelligence and patience with the puck, but once Olausson left the J20 levels, a number of areas of tracked data completely cratered as he was rarely getting the puck from teammates, and didn’t manage to do much with it when he got a chance. I do like his ability to pressure opponents and apply pressure, and his combination of vision with the puck and practical skill to evade a layer of pressure here and there. Is there a top six guy here? I’m not so sure, but is he an NHL player that could play a few different roles? Sure.
The best example of the second to me is Ayrton Martino. The pass vision, shot quality, open ice vision in the neutral zone, and raw offensive output is so much fun to watch. There’s going to need to be some development to his agility and ability to push the pace of the game in order to maximize what he could be, but if he does, he could be a heck of a scoring winger.
For the latter group, William Stromgren could be a player drafted well before his ranking on my list, and I could absolutely see why. The combination of size, skill and quickness to hit his top speed is unlike many in the draft, but the trouble is that he can disappear into the background of the game for stretches, or at least be far, far less effective than when he’s at his best. If he’s dialed in, he’s evasive, pace-y, can humiliate defenders, and has great finishing talent. If a team is focused on players and what they could be, Stromgren could be a surprise pick on day one.
I haven’t said a ton about Francesco Pinelli so far this year, and that’s largely because I have no idea what he is, or what he’s going to be. I see smarts with his puck possession and slippery pass work in multiple areas of the ice, but projecting him to the NHL still feels tough for me when everything gets ratcheted up.
It seems like Carson Lambos is a bit of a black sheep in this year’s draft, considering his nondominant play in Finland, and WHL play that was cut far too short. In watching my tape I have on him, I came away impressed with his defensive positioning and ability to close gaps efficiently in the neutral zone to turn play around. He seemed uncomfortable on big ice, and certainly seemed outmatched in the Liiga with his pursuit defense and being a step behind. I still think there’s a solid player here with time, but it’s hard to view him through the same lens as a year ago. Hopefully he can figure it out and continue building his game.
Up the Stromgren Alley, Nikita Chibrikov is another example of a player where once in a while, you see tremendous skill and speed. There’s so much flash there when it comes out, but for such long stretches, especially defensively, I just wanted to see more from Chibrikov. He was inactive without the puck, inconsistent driving results successfully offensively, but that flash is hard to ignore. He’s a bit of a project with big upside, but patience will likely be necessary.
Chaz Lucius might also be a guy picked much higher than I have him ranked and I’d be okay with it. There are just so many names ahead of him that I think project a bit better, but with Lucius’ injury issues, he very well could be underperforming his potential through no fault of his own. His thinking and skill under pressure is excellent, finding pockets of space to play around in and get shot attempts from in tight is easily projectable. I question how much of his scoring will translate without being a player known for being in the right place at the right time for tap-ins, and getting shots off when goalies aren’t expecting them. The pace and defensive involvement is questionable, but if he’s taken as in the top half of the first round, I understand why, even if it wouldn’t be my first suggestion.

Tier 5

This is a fun, fun range full of big swings and relatively safer picks that I've enjoyed watching a ton.
I already regret having Zellweger this late, but I've come too far. In reality, he should be a tier up and closer to 28 or 29. He's so shifty, creative, and drives offense so, so well. He's small and not an elite level skater in some areas of the discipline to me, but he's got the advantage of youth and still being really effective on his side. While I think there's a universe he tops out in the AHL without skating and defensive gap management improvements, I also believe patience will pay off with this guy and the right team could turn him into a great puck mover in the NHL.
I was probably too low on Chayka for far too long this year. I know what I saw with Guelph, and I'm convinced CSKA completely transformed his game to be far more defensive. There's so much data that indicates that he was extremely inactive in transition, an extremely conservative D-to-D passer, a volume shooter in the offensive zone, and basically being relegated to "zero offense allowed" in the Russian leagues. His MHL games towards the end of the year seemed to allow him to stretch out a bit more, and you saw the puck carrying potential he has, and that's the area I'd want to exploit more. He was not the same player this year, and objectively wasn't great, but I think there's something to be unlocked there.
I get asked about Zach Dean a lot. I like the guy, but I just can't take the plunge as the first name I'd draft. He's quick on his feet, and slippery with his passing, but I see him struggle with physical pressure in the QMJHL, I see inconsistencies by game when tracking him, and I'm just not sure about how well he projects to the NHL. As the 2nd or at worst 3rd player my team picks, I could absolutely be swayed based on how creative and quick he is.
I keep watching my tape of Sean Tschigerl and just think there's so much to work with there. He's not perfect, can have trouble settling pucks and overhandling them in the offensive zone, but the set of hands, shot quality, and tremendous offensive transition efficiency is enough to like that he's in this range.
Heimosalmi showed what he was capable of in the U18s in my opinion. You could see signs with the skating, gap management and skill he brought in the Finnish U20 level, but he wasn't quite putting it all together at both ends. He did that in the U18, and I think he could be a great snag if he slips a bit.
Othmann is a weird one to me. His office seems to be tight to the left of a goaltender right along the goal line offensively. He’s a nice straight line player with the puck who can be deceptive with his quick feet, even if he isn’t really generating a ton of speed with them. He’s got a heck of a shot though, I just have never felt he’s a massive potential needlemover. Nice bottom six, physical player with a great shot, absolutely, but I’m not sure he’s the first name I call in the draft.
Alexander Kisakov is a curious one. He's an MHL scoring wizard who plays very non-MHL hockey. He plays with pace, he attacks the middle, he applies pressure often, but it's in the MHL, and players that play that brand naturally seem to stick out in a sea of low-pressure opponents, which spooks me. Prokhor Poltapov is another one. Yes, you saw his power game on display in the U18s, but I've seen a lot of him, and while I think there's a potential bottom six energy player who can maul around the net, I didn't see it a ton, and when I did, it was also against MHL competition. They're weird ones, they spook me, but as the 2nd name off the board, I could do it.
The analytics I tracked on Ceulemans were often very good in the AJHL. There’s skill, there’s evasion through a layer or two, especially in the offensive zone, there’s straight line defending and physical imposition at times, and lots to think is perfectly fine, I just am skeptical of the pace of his game and the projectability of his offensive game. With his defensive game being a questionable side with regards to lateral gap control and structured rush, I just get the feeling he’s a defender gone before I’d be ready to take him, and I’ll snag a name like Olen Zellweger, Brent Johnson, or others in the 2nd round or later.
I'm sticking my neck out on Lukas Gustafsson. I just believe there's something there so, so much, even in a limited sample. I think there's value in finding players who maximize every minute they get, even if they only play 5 minutes, and Gustafsson did that with the Chicago Steel. He's got skill, great lateral mobility to close gaps, but will need to strengthen as he could get beaten wide physically more often than I'd like, but he was often involved. In fact, I tracked 5 games of his, and nobody was involved in more total blueline transitions than Gustafsson. He's a player I also believe didn't quite trust his skill with the puck as much as he could, as I found him gaining possession, surveying the ice, ignoring open space or close linemates, and firing a stretch pass that went for an icing. I just get the feeling that more experience and patience will take this guy a long way, and I'm almost positive he'll land on Team Scouching unless some team feels the same as me.

Tier 6

Zach Bolduc is a guy I’ve really tried with. I’ve tracked multiple games, watched a lot to see if I’m missing anything, and I just can’t see how he’s a first round selection, let alone a top 20 pick. He’s extremely passive defensively, a receiver of passes in the neutral zone rather than a breakout source, he chases play that pushes the envelope too far for me, and I just don’t see the 5v5 skill or potential for offensive production at a high enough level that he’s a guy I have ranked high. His production seemed to take off after Xavier Cormier came to town, who is a name I might bring to an NHL camp, but Bolduc had a tough year, and his data didn’t really show anything otherwise.
I've come around on Shai Buium recently. I think there's a solid raw package to work around that revolves around his skill level. His weight shifts with the puck are deceptive and can drive offensive play effectively, albeit infrequently. He's a work in progress, and I think he's a reasonable bet in the 3rd round or so, but I feel as though a team will make the bet much earlier than that. Bryce Montgomery also falls into this category to an extent. Love the raw fundamentals for a guy his size and curious to bet on.
Oliver Kapanen with a skating coach and major gains over the next few years could be very interesting. I love his smarts, quick skill moves, and off-puck offense, but projectability is a concern without improvements on his feet I think.
I can totally see why people may have Cole Jordan very high on their boards, and while I think he could be a top-40 player, I think that would require a major reprogramming of his style of play. At times, he's a wet blanket defensively, at others, he is definitely not. He's a great generator of pure speed, but doesn't pull it out very often, and his puck decisions can be hasty and inaccurate. Another long term project but I dig the potential.
Samu Salminen scores points, but watching my tape back, I don't know how he projects to the men's level at all without significant skating and intensity improvements. He's a great puck protector at low pace, and can battle through pressure with nice dual threat offense, but nothing really feels entirely projectable to me, which spooks me, even though he's scoring a ton.
Zack Ostapchuk is one of the last players I tracked a few games of, and I see real potential for the big, skilled north-south winger. He's creative, quick, crafty with complex pass vision, and physical if need be. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team jump up and snag him because "beeg", but it wouldn't be outlandish to me. As a mid round, projectable energy player with a bit of upside, he's a curious one for sure.
Kalle Ervasti is one I've been championing for a while, and while he's a work in progress, he does things for a defender that I don't see a ton of in this year's class. His feet are extremely active, he challenges puck carriers aggressively with skill and mobility, and his defensive transition results were excellent. With the puck, he's got a calm side, taking care of pucks well, but he can step up in the offensive end and get involved from time to time. He's a raw player who needs to work on his defensive zone play, but he's a good one if you need someone to bet on late.
Samuel Helenius just keeps dropping on my list over the course of the year, almost to the point where I think I have him too low, but I just don't know what he could be in the NHL outside of a bottom six centre if he fills out a bit. He's huge but not massive, and while his mobility is notable for someone his size, I still question how much you can extract out of him considering how inactive he has been in my tracking. Once in a while you see him bash pucks through traffic well, but far more often, it's hard to identify his impact at the Liiga level.
I saw Danila Klimovich at the U18s just like everyone else, and he could be an interesting pickup for teams looking for a triggerman with deceptive skill, but he's still a project to me.
Janis Moser being picked way ahead of this spot to the right team could very well be a possibility in my view. He's a 21 year old but after tracking him, you can clearly tell why he was a captain in the Swiss National League at that age. He's calm, poised, creative with his rush patterns, stable with his passing, with a nice shot and a bit of deception to step up from the blueline from time to time. I think there's some kind of NHL defender there, even if it's a low ceiling, but he should be some kind of player. His physical game may get exposed a bit on smaller ice, but his positional play, and intelligence with the puck seems to overcome that in my data.

Tier 7

I've got interesting feelings about this last group. I've seen flashes of stuff I like, but the entire package just might not be there right now.
Alexander Suvorov is a player I've had in the corner of my eye a lot. Caught him while tracking Dmitri Kuzmin and his near 30% INV% against Belarusian professional teams is notable, with a spot on the national team here and there in exhibition games. He's a crafty little bugger, but he's a ton of fun to watch. I may wait a year and see how he plays against better competition in the KHL, but I think there's value here and as a late round swing, he could be an interesting option.
David Gucciardi is... perplexing. On one hand, his skill offensively combined with his shot is quite lovely, and his neutral zone positioning and long reach closes out breakouts more often than many others. On the other hand, his physical pressure application is not great, he can take the foot off the gas for extended periods, and I just felt that his head wasn't quite in the game far too often. He'd carry pucks into traffic and pass pucks into no-man's land, but I still think there is an interesting set of fundamentals to build with if he's a later round option for your team.
I saw Wyatt Johnston in the U18, and I just don't reeeeeally know how to feel. I love the shot, he's got nice one-touch skill, but I haven't been nearly as taken with his game as a whole as many others. I've seen him in the first round on some boards, and I think that's a risk on a low-sample player that I'd let someone else take.
Luke Levandowski was a guy that was brought up to me privately and I just love the skill there is with this guy. He's raw, but produced well in high school, and you could see the wheels turning in the USHL with Chicago. He's quick on his feet, quick with his moves, and passes pucks with a ton of creativity. A nice low-risk bet on skill for sure.
On that note, Conner Roulette is a bit of a different case study, as I don't quite see the pace out of him that I see out of Levandowski, and Roulette's defensive game is... questionable... However, his skill and maneuverability is noteworthy, and his offensive creation metrics I tracked were great. I'm still skeptical of him as an NHL player due to his lack of involvement and palpably significant lean in the offensive direction, but there's something there.
The evasion under pressure that Evan Nause brings is definitely very good, but beyond that, I haven't seen much that really projects with him. His data across the games I tracked was not great, and while I saw what people are telling me to see that puts him significantly higher, the more I watch, the more I see outside of those things that need a lot of work. If he's gone by the 3rd round, that's okay with me, and while I think there's potential, I think you're really banking on future development.
Mikey Milne stuck out after good metrics in limited time last year, but I've loved the pure skill he brought this year. He's a pretty prototypical skilled offensive player who can attack the middle and play with creativity, but I don't think there's anything wrong with that. I didn't get the chance to track him, but his Pick224 data was great, and to my eye, he drove play well for Winnipeg.
I just had to put Dario Sidler on here. He was on The Watchlist for a few months, but after seeing him at the U18, and rewatching my tape of him, there's such a weird little hockey player there. On one hand, he's almost certainly not an NHL player, but on the other, I get the feeling he'll be a player that will continue to improve as he earns more ice time in the Swiss pro levels, and just keep getting better. By the time he's say, 25, could he be looking for an NHL contract after excellent offensive seasons in Switzerland? I could see it. He's a remarkable little skater on defense with great skill and an ability to complete passes that puts him ahead of many defenders tracked. He's basically a non-factor physically, but he tries, which is nice. He's rambunctious, but bounces off guys. His gap management will need to significantly improve as well, but he's just so dang fun, earned National League time with Zug, and if you're really, really patient, this could be a very fun pickup.

The Watchlist

Ah yes, here we are with The Watchlist. These guys are players where I don't see them ranked often, but they're players that have caught my eye for individual traits that might be worth putting on a list for camp invites or re-entry selections if they go undrafted.
Justin Ertel demolished the Maritime Junior A level, but he's big and creative. I don't really like the mobility a ton, even at that level, but he's got skill and vision.
Kyle Masters, Theo Angesved, Jonathan Myrenberg, Tyson Galloway, Ivan Zivlak and Jeremy Hanzel are all defenders who can skate, but have major holes elsewhere. For Masters, Angesved and Hanzel, they get exposed defensively and have awareness issues positionally, but they're so dang mobile. Galloway, Myrenberg and Zivlak are all nice skaters, but I want to see more... oomph out of them. Galloway's offensive puck management is just... poor. Zivlak's is wildly inconsistent and doesn't work off his strengths super well, and Myrenberg is another inconsistent one but strikes arguably the best balance between offense and defense, but I just want to see a bit more in the future.
Yeah, Suchkov and Bashkirov are still here. I like them both. Maybe not draftables, even if Suchkov is a Team Scouching member, but camp invites or future ELC candidates? Heck year.
Josh Doan is in here. He's a D+1 playing with Chicago, and I'm not sure I buy as much hype as I've seen out there on him, but I like his physical strength and willingness to battle through pressure, with a side of finishing ability. He's a curious one that I'm sure will be drafted way, way before I'd pick him, but it also just feels like teams are going to value him and invest heavily into him due to his style of play and who fathered him, so maybe he'll be an NHLer after all.
Libor Nemec is a very interesting one I caught onto later on this year. A really young Slovakian playing with Lukko's powerhouse junior team, he's a big kid with slippery skill and a great knack for the ol' "get your stick on the puck below the goal line and free it up in front of the net" kind of thing. His skating needs some work, but seems heavily improved from what I saw of him in 2019-20. I doubt he's picked, but he's here so I don't forget he exists next year.
Jakub Altrichter go zoom zoom brr brr deng and I like the data, so here he is. Not analytical, I know, but if you're reading this far, you can be rewarded with a little silliness.
Valdemar Johansson is a player I'm convinced would be on more radars if the J20 year wasn't canceled. He was just getting started after earning a promotion from the J18 level, and looked rock solid with skill, mobility, and a wicked shot. Another player I probably wouldn't draft, but definitely one I'm keeping an eye on for next year. Theo Jacobsson is right up that alley as well, with the positional smarts and quick hands he brings, but there ain't much beyond that just yet.
I just can't shake the feeling I have with Evan Werner. I think there's something there with time. He's got Cole Caufield-esque vibes on the ice with how shifty and quick he is on his edges, being deceptive with his mobility and skill, and can absolutely blast a puck into the net. He lead his NAHL team in goal scoring, and was the most productive draft eligible NAHLer in a big sample. I know that may not sound like much, and we're talking about Watchlist guys, but Kyle Kukkonen is a more highly regarded player who not only scored at a lower rate, but his lack of pace and speed seemed to get exposed with a -8 in 19 games. Yes, plus/minus is a terrible evaluatory stat, but it is illuminating when no other player on the Minot Minotauros quite matched that pace of allowing more goals than his line scored. I want to see Werner in the USHL at least, but I'm curious.

That's it. I'm probably extremely wrong, but sometimes that happens. I think of picking prospects like picking stocks. Different investors and funds may have wildly different philosophies, they may find success, but there are still strong fundamentals you can explore and try to make the best decisions possible. Just like stocks, there's no such thing as the perfect player, no matter how much research you do. Things will happen outside the player's control that will affect their trajectory and it's important to be mindful of that. I still stand firmly behind my work, and I hope you all have enjoyed what I've put out over the last season.

Thank you so, so much to any and all of you for watching, listening and reading my content. There's lots planned for 2021-22, so don't go too far. To my Patrons and YouTube Members, thank you all so much for your financial support. I've got some beeg ideas for the platform and I can't wait to get them off the ground. For some reason, this is the work I've latched onto, but it means the world to have an audience that not only likes what I do, but is willing to step up and discuss where they may disagree with me in a civil way. It's all greatly appreciated, and I'm looking forward to whatever is coming in the future.

All the best, be well, get that vaccine, and hopefully I'll be able to actually get out there and meet some of you in person one day.

Scouching's Post-Stanley Cup Final Mock Draft

7/9/2021

Well well well, the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Stanley Cup again, and as is tradition, it is now officially draft season. The order is set, and here we are again. If you missed part 1, check it out here. I won't give you a giant preamble, but congratulations to both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens. That was one of the most entertaining playoffs I've seen in a while, and I get the feeling the draft will be no different.

So with that, enjoy the remainder of my mock draft! I'm expecting an insane roller coaster ride on draft day, so this will probably turn out to be extremely incorrect extremely quickly, but such is life when you try to analyze the NHL Draft.

1st Overall - Buffalo Sabres
Scouch's Pick - Matthew Beniers
Gut Pick - Owen Power
2nd Overall - Seattle Kraken
Scouch's Pick - William Eklund
Gut Pick - Matthew Beniers
3rd Overall - Anaheim Ducks
Scouch's Pick - Luke Hughes
Gut Pick - Brandt Clarke
4th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Scouch's Pick - Brandt Clarke
Gut Pick - Luke Hughes
5th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Scouch's Pick - Fabian Lysell
Gut Pick - William Eklund
6th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Scouch's Pick - Owen Power
Gut Pick - Kent Johnson
7th Overall - San Jose Sharks
Scouch's Pick - Jesper Wallstedt
Gut Pick - Fabian Lysell
8th Overall - Los Angeles Kings
Scouch's Pick - Simon Edvinsson
Gut Pick - Dylan Guenther
9th Overall - Vancouver Canucks
Scouch's Pick - Kent Johnson
Gut Pick - Mason McTavish
10th Overall - Ottawa Senators
Scouch's Pick - Mason McTavish
Gut Pick - Simon Edvinsson
11th Overall - Chicago Blackhawks
Scouch's Pick - Dylan Guenther
Gut Pick - Chaz Lucius
12th Overall - Calgary Flames
Scouch's Pick - Logan Stankoven
Gut Pick - Carson Lambos
13th Overall - Philadelphia Flyers
Scouch's Pick - Fyodor Svechkov
Gut Pick - Matthew Coronato
14th Overall - Dallas Stars
Scouch's Pick - Simon Robertsson
Gut Pick - Cole Sillinger
15th Overall - New York Rangers
Scouch's Pick - Aatu Raty
Gut Pick - Zachary L'Heureux

16th Overall - St. Louis Blues
Scouch's Pick - Cole Sillinger
Gut Pick - Corson Ceulemans

Scouch's Take - I have a hard time seeing Sillinger legitimately slipping to the Blues here, but the questions around Sillinger's skating and objective issues this season fitting in as a linemate with Sioux Falls bump him down here, but I think this is a great fit for St. Louis. Sillinger has firepower, tight space skill, he's hard to knock off pucks, and his physical intensity at times was highly desirable. For a team that valued Jake Neighbours so highly last year, I could see them taking a high ceiling player with a physical edge that Sillinger has shown in my viewings. Lucius or Coronato comes to mind here as well, but with the projectable offensive weapons Sillinger brings, he's hard to let slip further.

Will's Gut's Take - The Blues at one time were absolutely loaded with rock solid, two-way defenders with some firepower. While they've evolved in recent years, Ceulemans is an option that may bring more stability in multiple scenarios defensively. While he's much lower on my list than this range, I do see the argument that Ceulemans could see large improvements in his development over the next few years. He has great North-South range with evasive skill in the offensive zone to create space for himself and challenge opponents, and his defensive game may be a bit mixed depending on the area of the ice you're looking at, but his ability to read opposing neutral zone breakouts and get into rushing lanes is admirable, he just has to do it against competition better than the AJHL. He isn't Cale Makar, but I do like him more than I did Michael Benning last year, and this could be a nice project pick for St. Louis to work with based on the defenders they've developed in the past.

17th Overall - Winnipeg Jets
Scouch's Pick - Carson Lambos
Gut Pick - Simon Robertsson

Scouch's Take - I've said a few times that Carson Lambos is the guy who I've looked back at my data and video and gone "huh" the most, and I may have been undervaluing him for large stretches this year. His ability to read rushes and use strong inside edges to move laterally and close gaps is rock solid, there's evasive skill to create space, and while his pure speed and high end offensive upside at 5v5 might be a bit limited, he's a reliable player that should be able to play solid defensive hockey with enough talent in his hands and brain to put points up once in a while. If that's the kind of defender you get in the back half of the first round, you could certainly do a lot worse, and if Lambos regains a bit of the form that was there before the pandemic, there could be great upside here, especially with Ville Heinola continuing to improve his game in Winnipeg.

Will's Gut's Take - Where Simon Robertsson goes on draft day will be interesting. His J20 data was extremely impressive, his time in the SHL showcased a lot of areas on his feet where he was much more comfortable than others, and his time in the HockeyEttan was a tough read. Some believe his skating holds him back, but I feel that's about the only thing that he doesn't have in spades. His brain for puck possession, skill to evade pressure, and ability to connect on passes in transition are all high level, and his offensive tools are definitely there. For Winnipeg, I think Robertsson is a strong, high ceiling pick who could easily plug into a role similar to a Nik Ehlers, just further down the lineup, and I don't think you can have enough players like what Robertsson could be in an NHL lineup.

18th Overall - Nashville Predators
Scouch's Pick - Chaz Lucius
Gut Pick - Fyodor Svechkov

Scouch's Take - I'm fully expecting Lucius to be gone by this pick. I have questions that just bump him a bit lower for me than the tippy top of this draft. How much did his injury factor into his game as he was this year? I was never enamored with the projectability of his scoring at the same level, I was never enamored with his pace of play and ability to push the game rather than react to it extremely well, and none of those things really changed for me this season. He's extremely inactive defensively from my data, but one of the better raw chance creators through both passes and shots I've tracked. A great tight space player who will probably be more of that JVR-brand of goal scorer, rather than a Kyle Connor, but being in the right place at the right time, and being able to get any kind of chance under heavy pressure can land easy ones, and around this range, I think he's a great get for the Predators. If there was another gear that never came out this year, I'd believe it, it's just a matter of me not having team-level resources to really dig into that, and he could be gone well before this. From what I've seen, tracked, and who I've liked just a bit more, Lucius just ends up on the tail end of an interesting top 20 or so names here.

Will's Gut's Take - Even though he had a strong U18 tournament, I still don't see much hoopla about Fyodor Svechkov, and I think it's entirely possible the Predators do their homework and understand just how good this guy is. Their 2020 1st rounder Yaroslav Askarov is a future teammate with SKA St. Petersburg, and getting as far away from Togliatti as possible will do Svechkov good. He's so smart, responsible, and evasive with projectable instincts going both ways, and offensive tools that came out in flashes that he could be a fantastic add at 18. If Nashville is in the early days of a teardown and 2022/2023 are their years to pick up core pieces, Svechkov could be an excellent secondary option at forward, capable of playing any position with both offensive and defensive benefits. I've been on the Svechkov for a while this year, and Nashville building a little pipeline of SKA players doesn't sound too bad to me.

19th Overall - Edmonton Oilers
Scouch's Pick - Matthew Coronato
Gut Pick - Jesper Wallstedt

Scouch's Take - I just feel like Coronato would be a really interesting Oiler. He's a legitimately talented, intelligent 200 foot player who has played every forward position this year with room to grow if his footwork and speed generation can be improved at Harvard. His brain for the game grows on you, he's a warrior under pressure, and he generates chances for himself extremely well while using linemates in open ice intelligently. He may not be a 1st line scorer, but he could certainly add some much needed legitimate middle lineup depth to an Oilers team that has struggled to lock down a strong full lineup in recent years, as well as be a scoring threat on the power play.

Will's Gut's Take - You might laugh at the idea that Wallstedt could slip here, but there's talk of him being a guy who could slip on draft day for a few reasons, and it doesn't take much for a goalie to not be a team's top option. I love watching Wallstedt play, and there should be a great goalie here, and I think Edmonton doesn't think twice, and focuses on swinging big with the rest of their picks. Wallstedt will probably be an NHL goalie while Edmonton's two great players are still in their prime, and if the Oilers can build a strong team in front of him, this could be an excellent pick for them.

20th Overall - Boston Bruins
Scouch's Pick - Scott Morrow
Gut Pick - Francesco Pinelli

Scouch's Take - The idea of the Boston Bruins taking the skilled prep school defender half the scouting world is down on, and turning him into the potentially great defenseman Scott Morrow could be is so Bruins to me. The mobility, skill, and aggressive mindset feel like something that would stick out, and if the Bruins can shore up the defensive side of the game and putting in the same effort without the puck that he puts in with it, he could be a tidy pickup with patience for the Bruins as their core continues to age out.

Will's Gut's Take - Pinelli, relative to the names available, just feels like a Bruin. I don't see huge upside with Pinelli, but I do see a player. He's aggressive on the puck with flashes of physicality, gifted processing play on the fly and selflessly driving play up the ice, and no-nonsense playmaking offensively. I'm not the biggest Pinelli fan, but I see why others might be. If the skating can improve, and the processing of the game can keep up with those improvements, he could have a higher ceiling, but in any case, the Bruins land a perfectly fine auxiliary building block that feels potentially up the same alley as previous high Bruins picks.

21th Overall - Minnesota Wild
Scouch's Pick - Sebastian Cossa
Gut Pick - Sebastian Cossa

Scouch's Take - I like Kaapo Kahkonen as much as anyone, and he does have an A+ name, but for some reason I just get the feeling that the Minnesota Wild, with multiple first round picks, may feel confident enough to take the plunge on a giant CHL goalie who put up objectively great results, even when looking relative to his workload. To my untrained eye, there's a lot of the technical and biomechanical efficiency that Jesper Wallstedt displays, just on a larger frame, and relative to other players in the range, there may be other bets that could be middle of the lineup scorers, but Cossa has a strong track record of stopping pucks, and even though his team was a powerhouse, outperforming his expected goals against is promising to say the least. It wouldn't take much for me to pass on the goalie, but two first round picks makes it more tolerable to take the plunge here.

Will's Gut's Take - I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Cossa go pretty close to the range Wallstedt goes, but he might be #2 on enough lists to land him here.

22th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Scouch's Pick - Isak Rosen
Gut Pick - Aatu Raty

Scouch's Take - Detroit likes their Swedes, and they seem to like good Swedes, even if they're raw. Rosen is a guy where I'm not sure what his NHL career looks like, but his confidence with the puck, pace of his offensive attacks, and ability to drive dangerous shot attempts in impressive. His game in the SHL changed pretty significantly relative to the J20, and his U18 was another change, and I've been pulled in all kinds of directions with him. He's likely a supplementary scorer, but I've seen him flash some real talent, even in the SHL being hard on pucks and trying to get pucks in front. If he can combine that trait from the SHL and gain the confidence to attack the net with the puck like he did in the J20, there could really be something with Rosen, and I trust the Red Wings to bring him along. Power/Rosen ain't a bad haul based on where their picks are.

Will's Gut's Take - Enough is enough. Raty has been through enough. Kent Johnson and Aatu Raty in the first round is a hilarious pair to add together, and I'd be thrilled to see Raty in Red Wings Red. There's a ton of evidence that his mediocre results weren't really attributed to him as much as you'd think, and I've seen what he did when he went back to play junior competition. There's a potentially great player here in Raty, I just think he needs a reset mentally, and Detroit could give that to him. Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno, Lucas Raymond, Jonatan Berggren, Kent Johnson, and now Aatu Raty is only the beginning of what their future forward group could include, which is wonderful to me.

23th Overall - Florida Panthers
Scouch's Pick - Oskar Olausson
Gut Pick - Brennan Othmann

Scouch's Take - The new Panthers regime seems to have a type in the NHL Draft after just one year. Multiple players drafted are hard working, physical players with side orders of offensive upside, and if you want more of that, Oskar Olausson could fit the bill. He's a smart, effective player with great patience and deception with the puck, but nice power generation on his turns to apply himself physically at higher levels. I think there's a nice floor with Olausson driven through his well rounded profile with his flashes of puck skill in transition, and for the type of player Florida seems to latch onto, he's one I feel I'd push for, and one I think that could be a fit.

Will's Gut's Take - While I agree with Will, I get the feeling Brennan Othmann may not have the same level of patience and skill with the puck, he does bring a bit more of that intensity and hard work that Florida seems to like. He can shoot, he battles hard, his ceiling may not be super high, but I think as an auxiliary and versatile high work rate player in your lineup, Florida could do much worse than Othmann.

24th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Scouch's Pick - Nikita Chibrikov
Gut Pick - Matthew Samoskevich

Scouch's Take - Chibrikov is another one of these guys where once in a while, I saw some real high end skill, creativity, and even physicality, but it only came out rarely, and when it wasn't out, he could've been anyone else on the ice. I think this is the right range to swing big on his upside and let him develop with SKA. I get the feeling Columbus really likes how Kirill Marchenko has come along with that program, and I don't believe they're afraid of swinging on upside. Chibrikov is a player who shows strong creative skill, a quality shot that he frustratingly uses from everywhere, but clear potential that may be gone before 24, but with enough question marks to me that other teams may just let him slip a bit. Lysell at 5 to Columbus might be a galaxy brain relative to where he goes on draft day, but Lysell/Chibrikov are two very solid pieces to land before their last 1st round pick.

Will's Gut's Take - Yeah ok, Chibrikov would be cool, but what about that kind of a profile, but ramped up even more? Columbus is no stranger to swings on high end individual traits, and Samoskevich may be one of the best combinations of skill and pace outside the top group of this year's draft. He's inconsistent, and seemingly focused on the offensive game and moving pucks on his own stick, leading to offensive creation, but when it works, it works. He's a ton of fun to watch and to me was one of the few non-NTDP players who shined well at the Biosteel game. If you're feeling fancy, this is a nice area of the draft to bet on him, and Columbus seemingly likes to feel fancy on draft day.

25th Overall - Minnesota Wild
Scouch's Pick - Olen Zellweger
Gut Pick - Logan Stankoven

Scouch's Take - "Olen Zellweger, meet Jared Spurgeon, captain of the Minnesota Wild. You are now roommates for training camp. Learn everything you can from this guy." The potential with Zellweger is enormous in my opinion, and the potential for him with Minnesota just seems like a match. They've got some more dynamic physical presences in Dryden Hunt and Ryan O'Rourke from last year, but Zellweger brings an exciting, shifty offensive approach to the game that's a ton of fun to watch. He's among the youngest players in the draft, and to me really only has to work on his mobility on his feet defensively to really round things out nicely. He's small, but has trouble managing gaps and pressuring quick forwards driving wide, often linked to a shorter reach and not being the strongest undersized guy, but the potential is massive here with patience and the right expectations, which I think the Wild can be entrusted with.

Will's Gut's Take - I want this to happen so, so, so bad. They took my guys Marco and Marat last year, and Logan is my guy this year. I may be wrong, but I want this to happen so bad that, as a gut, it's overwhelming me. I gushed about Logan in part one, but I just can't help myself. He's small, but doesn't play small, he's got an unbelievably quick release, great elevation on his shot, but an underrated playmaking side from a variety of spots on the ice and great pace up the ice in transition. I don't think he'll be a massive two-way impact player, but he'll put in the work to try. I feel like the more you believe in a guy like Logan, let him learn through playing time, and put him in potential offensive situations, you'll be rewarded greatly.

26th Overall - Carolina Hurricanes
Scouch's Pick - Ville Koivunen
Gut Pick - Nikita Chibrikov

Scouch's Take - Carolina is not dumb. Ville Koivunen is very good. Tom Dundon is on record saying defensemen are out of the picture in round one, but I wouldn't push for one here anyways. Koivunen plays on the same program as Sebastian Aho did, and like Aho, is pretty underrated. Now, Koivunen is not Sebastian, but he's such a rock solid player that makes the game easier for everyone around him that with more development, he's just going to continue to improve. There's nothing low-end in his game, and while there's nothing elite, I think there's enough "very good" that he could pretty much turn into anything. He's a mystery box, but one you'd probably want to bet on, and I just feel like the Hurricanes are the right team to take the plunge,

Will's Gut's Take - High skill, if inconsistent is something Carolina isn't afraid of, and Chibrikov could be a great pickup. He's good value if you believe what he is at his best here, and Carolina seems to be one of the teams that is part of that ethos.

27th Overall - Colorado Avalanche
Scouch's Pick - Mackie Samoskevich
Gut Pick - Scott Morrow

Scouch's Take - hahaha as if Colorado needs more pure skill players with a side of speed, eh? Well, here comes another one in Samoskevich. The idea of Jean-Luc Foudy one day streaking down the ice in supplementary minutes with what Mackie Samoskevich could be just feels like something the Avs would deploy. Samoskevich is a ton of fun to watch with projectable skill and playmaking ability, and I feel as though he'd be a nice late first round option for Colorado to bring along patiently and help supplement their core as they get a bit older in a few seasons.

Will's Gut's Take - Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, Sam Girard, Devon Toews, maybe a bit of Justin Barron, then add the potential of Scott Morrow. Not sure what else you want me to say. Morrow is a risk, but there is so, so much potential there with the pure skill and aggressive offense he brings. Three of the defensemen I mentioned all bring an aggressive mindset to playing defense, and it's paid off for the team nicely, so it may just be that Morrow is the next option on a strong backend. Maybe they don't need more defenders, but many teams should be interested in a defender like Morrow, especially in this range.

28th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Scouch's Pick - Francesco Pinelli
Gut Pick - Daniil Chayka

Scouch's Take - Pinelli is a perfectly reasonable Swiss Army Knife forward. I've seen him at centre, on the wings with a strong mind for the game, with a bit of physicality to go with everything. I just feel like as a supplementary option around the core the Devils have built, Pinelli is a nice add with potential upside if there's improvement to his pace of play over time.

Will's Gut's Take - The once top ranked Chayka has slipped and slipped all year. He objectively was not Guelph Daniil Chayka in the KHL/VHL, so the question is... what is he? I get the feeling the Devils see his frame, solid mobility, and puck carrying potential, and we see an echo of the value they attributed to Shakir Mukhamadullin in 2021. Chayka will probably gone by this point in the draft, but I could see him slip simply due to the complete dropoff in his game year over year. He struggles in close quarters defending, he had almost zero offensive involvement outside of point shots, but I still saw flashes of the player I saw in Guelph. If he's a guy that slips a bit this year, I feel as though the Devils will capitalize on the "what if he's 2019-20 Daniil Chayka" potential, combined with "he's huge" and just pick him with an acquired pick and see what happens.

29th Overall - Vegas Golden Knights
Scouch's Pick - Corson Ceulemans
Gut Pick - Isak Rosen

Scouch's Take - I'm not the biggest Ceulemans guy, but I see the appeal around this range. He's a nice blank slate with a solid combination of skill and straight line mobility that he applies both offensively and defensively. He's got room to grow defensively, and could round things out a bit more than he has, and Vegas seems to know what they're doing with young defenders.

Will's Gut's Take - Rosen should probably be gone by now, and Vegas isn't afraid of drafting on skill and potential, and Rosen has potential as one of a variety of offensive players. He can shoot, he's got great weight shifting to cut into the middle of the ice, and in the SHL he seemed to gain a work rate and intensity without the puck that I didn't see in the J20. He isn't a massive upside scorer, but he could slot in a variety of roles to supplement a strong Vegas future.

30th Overall - Montreal Canadiens
Scouch's Pick - William Stromgren
Gut Pick - Oskar Olausson

Scouch's Take - Stromgren might be one of the biggest boom or bust guys available around here. He's big, has plenty of skill, and high skill at his high pace play, but it is far too sparse to put him higher. At his best, he could easily be considered in the first 20 picks of the draft in my opinion. The Habs seem to love physically gifted players, but also seem to prefer skill and potential at some picks. With Stromgren's size and skill combination, there's lots to work with as he gets older, stronger, and more experienced against men. I like the upside here, and I feel that he'd be a good fit with what the Canadiens seem to aim at.

Will's Gut's Take - See all that I wrote about Stromgren, but add in some consistency, a bit more physical play, but less flash. He's a well rounded package of traits I think stick out to a team like Montreal, and late in the first, he's a good bet to be one of those players filling a role like Artturi Lehkonen down the lineup, but useful nonetheless.

31st Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Scouch's Pick - Ayrton Martino
Gut Pick - Kalle Vaisanen

Scouch's Take - Batter up, here comes the Columbus Blue Jackets with the last pick of the first round, and once again, they go with high upside and raw skill. Ayrton Martino is just so exciting. His creativity and vision offensively is remarkable, as well as his ability to get a jump on opponents. His defensive game is a bit of a work in progress but there were signs of improvement over the course of the year. He was one of the best offensive analytical cases I tracked this year, and with improvements to his skating and defensive pursuit ability, he could be a heck of a get. Lysell, Chibrikov, and Martino aren't bad offensive pieces to build around. Perhaps a defenseman is in the mix somewhere, but for me, these guys all resonate with me strongly for Columbus.

Will's Gut's Take - Oh yeah, well here comes the actual Columbus Blue Jackets you coward. Columbus drafted two guys off TPS's junior team last year, and Vaisanen is one of the few players I've seen combine physicality, skill, and creativity in as much of a positive way as Vaisanen. He's active in transition going both ways, can absolutely crush the opponent, and once he fills out a bit, if he can also build some better speed, he could be one of a rare breed of legitimate power forwards in the NHL that can punish an opponent one shift, and set up a nice play from physical play along the boards on another. His patience with the puck to pull it into open space in the middle of the ice has come out often, and as the year wore down in Finland, he was playing centre here and there, and while unrefined, his profile leads me to believe it's a possibility for him. I wouldn't be shocked to see this be the guy Columbus pulls out of their hat.

Scouching's Post-Draft Lottery Mock Draft

6/3/2021

Welcome to the mock draft. I hope you're ready to get angry because your team doesn't fake-get your favourite prospect! It's been a while since I put one of these together with all the chaos, weirdness and uncertainty of the 2020 Draft. Quite honestly, I just forgot to put one together, but forget this year I shan't.

I'll keep the preamble brief. The way I think of mock drafts is splitting it between who my pick would be, should I be king of the world and picking for each team, and who my gut actually thinks will get picked. Will's Gut, say hi to everyone, and everyone say hi to Will's Gut. In a year like this, there are many names that are sandwiched together that all could be good fits for different teams for different reasons, and there are always picks completely out of left field that are almost impossible to predict, but rest assured that in my view, if your team picks the #8 name on my list at #3, don't freak out. This is a very, very weird draft year with plenty of great talent to be had and I hope we all just have fun welcoming these young guys into the NHL. This exercise is also meant to be fun! I'm sure some crazy, unexpected stuff is going to happen, and some things that go against the grain of history will also happen, so let's all just enjoy the calm before the storm, and tinker with what these NHL teams could be adding to their pipelines.

1st Overall - Buffalo Sabres
Will Pick - Matthew Beniers
Gut Pick - Owen Power

Will's Take: To me, this is a no-brainer. Beniers may not be quite NHL ready, but if the Sabres want to get deeper up front, and provide more impact players at both ends that can hopefully ignite some of the pure goal scorers like Olofsson and Skinner. If Eichel and Reinhart can be convinced to return, and Beniers has a strong summer to build some strength to resist better competition, you might have a piece that can really turn you in the right direction in many, many areas of the game.

Will's Gut's Take: Will has many thoughts on Owen Power, but this one is starting to look obvious. He's been solid at the World Championships, he's being ranked #1 more and more often from establishment sources, and the upside is undeniable. It's a perfectly fine selection at #1, but absolutely not if you think Power is a dependable NHL defenseman next year without getting significantly more comfortable on his huge frame. If the Sabres want to play the long game, and names like Eichel, Ristolainen and Reinhart are not to return, sending Owen Power back to Michigan feels like the right move, and the patience could be rewarding. The big hurdle will be getting comfortable on his frame at NHL pace, especially beyond making the simplest of plays effectively at that pace.

2nd Overall - Seattle Kraken
Will Pick - William Eklund
Gut Pick - Matthew Beniers

Will's Take: Seattle is a massive question mark and it'll be very interesting to see which direction they go from the start. Could it be Owen Power here? Maybe, and it could make sense as Seattle is in no rush for major success, and the choice between Power jumping to the NHL to learn on the job, or go back to college to have a dominant D+1 year feels less risky. Personally, I just have Power ranked low, Eklund ranked at 2, and at his core, William Eklund is just really good. He's a player that drives offensive play so well from the boards with pace, skill, speed, and produces extremely well for an SHL player. It may not be the most impactful position, but in my view, Eklund could be a first line scorer with line drivers playing with him, it's just a matter of finding those in other ways than through the 2021 NHL Draft.

Will's Gut's Take: I can't see Beniers getting past Seattle, I just can't, and to me, it's a great spot for them to be in if this happens. Beniers is just a rock solid hockey player all around. He works his tail off, he's skilled in open ice, he's an excellent playmaker, and I feel that the only barrier to being a reliable, 200-foot NHL centre is being a bit slight on his frame and having trouble imposing on his opponents, which came out a bit in my World Championship viewing. I'm a huge fan of Beniers and believe he could anchor a line in the NHL quickly. He's supportive of defenders, he's agile and unpredictable through the neutral zone, he battles in the corners to release pressure selflessly, and his pass vision in the offensive zone makes him one of the best creators of shot attempts I've tracked this year.

3rd Overall - Anaheim Ducks
Will Pick - Luke Hughes
Gut Pick - Brandt Clarke

Will's Take: When I look at Luke Hughes in June 2021, and Owen Power in June 2020, I cannot help but feel like if I had to pick between the two at identical ages, I'm taking Luke Hughes. There's almost a full year of extra runway there, and I see a player who took massive steps in his skating power and confidence with the puck since last year, and while I have issues with his defensive zone entry defense and consistency to use his frame to separate pucks, the potential is undeniable. A pair of Drysdale/Hughes for the next number of years would certainly help the Ducks get back to competing with a new identity of skill, creativity, and offense from the backend.

Will's Gut's Take: See above, but I just feel that Brandt Clarke might be a bit more up their alley. A solid option for a dump and chase style offense who can get set up along the blueline to work his magic, Clarke may not have the wheels of a Hughes or Power, but the skill, vision in the offensive zone, pivoting ability and neutral zone positioning should translate, especially if he can gain more confidence moving pucks himself with confidence through the neutral zone.

4th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Will Pick - Brandt Clarke
Gut Pick - Luke Hughes

Will's Take: I dunno, I just feel like Clarke is a good fit for the Devils. He isn't the offensive rush QB we love to see with the puck on his stick, but he's a capable positional rush defender with excellent aggression and skill in the offensive zone. If the gameplan is getting Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier the puck across the defensive blueline and trailing into the offensive zone to participate in their offense, then sign me up. Owen Power is still available in this universe, and I get the feeling the Devils wouldn't let him through, and I have time for a Clarke/Power discussion, but Clarke gives them a more offensive leaning weapon that I think could offset the brand of defense they've largely drafted in recent years.

Will's Gut's Take: Will might've sent Luke Hughes to Anaheim a pick before, but I'll bite. It'd be really neat to see the offensive 1/2 punch of Hughes and Ty Smith on the Devils, surrounded by a litany of big, mean, rangy defenders like Kevin Bahl and Shakir Mukhamadullin. Do I think it's the best strategy for NHL success? Who cares! You've got a dynamic, offensively confident defender to unite with his brother Jack who can quarterback an offensive rush and run a power play. The defensive game needs work as mentioned before, but sure, I could absolutely see the Devils taking on Luke Hughes, giving him a year to grow and mature, and seeing him in the NHL relatively quickly. I'm also thinking that if they would prefer more of another brand of defender, Simon Edvinsson could easily slot in as a Devil, and I could see him bringing legitimate defensive stability to a young team, with the upside of becoming a fascinating two-way impact player with improvements to his puck management and agility on his giant frame. Still, I'm leaning Hughes when push comes to shove.

5th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Will Pick - Fabian Lysell
Gut Pick - William Eklund

Will's Take: I admit that I am a fanboy for Fabian Lysell game, and drafting him above Owen Power feels like something Columbus wouldn't do, but this is the team that swung on Yegor Chinakhov in the 1st round last fall. The draft is wild and unpredictable, so who knows. Maybe this happens and I wouldn't be upset. If Jarmo Kekalainen wants skilled players who play with tenacity, energy, and hunger, Lysell has it in spades. There's the possibility that Columbus could take Power and still land Lysell with one of their later picks in this round, but if you ask me, not only do I not want to take that risk knowing what I know today, but I also genuinely enjoyed Fabian's game and think there's just as much upside here as a few other names available.

Will's Gut's Take: William Eklund can't go later than 5 can he? Eklund would be an injection of offense into the post-Tortorella Blue Jackets, and while their depth down the middle isn't great, you ideally don't draft for need, and both Will and I agree that Eklund absolutely should be considered one of the top five players available this year. He won't be a universe-altering talent, but he'll provide a boost to a team that needs one. And plus, if it isn't Eklund because you want a centre, the alternative are objectively a step down from Eklund's pure offensive skill.

6th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Will Pick - Owen Power
Gut Pick - Kent Johnson

Will's Take: Steve Yzerman doesn't really think twice about this. Owen Power is a really solid pickup that solidifies a talented future defense group, and Detroit can afford to be somewhat patient, but expectations will be key. He brings north/south mobility and an offensive side to the game, as well as the talent to quarterback a power play, and if by some crazy chance Power isn't going in the first five picks, this one is relatively straightforward for the Red Wings.

Will's Gut's Take: Yzerman is not afraid of big swings, and Johnson is a big swing. Arguably one of the most purely skilled players in the entire draft with the upside to be potentially the most productive winger to come out of this draft, Johnson is a tantalizing option. He could very easily be gone well before now, but with him being in Detroit's backyard, and while Edvinsson and Lysell are high end Swedes that I could see being their target as well, Johnson brings potential that could really give the Red Wings offense a shot in the arm in a year or two.

7th Overall - San Jose Sharks
Will Pick - Jesper Wallstedt
Gut Pick - Fabian Lysell

Will's Take: They need a goalie, they drafted a ton of offensive skill last year, and while a defender or centre might make sense here, you're talking picking between a stable but flawed defender in Simon Edvinsson, a big wild card in Aatu Raty, and a player with potentially limited upside in Mason McTavish. Now, I like McTavish, and if that's the name here, I get it, but Wallstedt is a decent bet with those names as alternatives. The Sharks are a team that may not be picking much later than 7th in 2022, and can be patient while their prospects develop a bit further.

Will's Gut's Take: On the other hand, San Jose has been drafting speedy, pacey, fun players for years now, and may just jump the gun and draft Lysell here. He's a ton of fun, with remarkable two way impact and potential for growth offensively. The Sharks aren't afraid of what many would call "personality issues", and Lysell seems to be coming with some kind of baggage, but I think it could be a great match for the competitive and rambuncious skilled winger.

8th Overall - Los Angeles Kings
Will Pick - Simon Edvinsson
Gut Pick - Dylan Guenther

Will's Take: Similar to San Jose, the Kings have focused on drafting skill often with their high picks, and Edvinsson, while not the flashiest player, and certainly not without issues, is a player that adds defensive stability and offensive potential that could be a great add to the massive stable of future talent in grey and black. Kent Johnson would be a nice alternate here, and I wouldn't complain if that was who it was, but Edvinsson would be a rock solid piece to add to a back end featuring other Swedes like Tobias Bjornfot, and Helge Grans, as well as other defenders Jordan Spence, Brock Faber, and Kim Nousianen.

Will's Gut's Take: I mean the idea of the Kings adding a skilled, creative winger that can make plays for the other finishers they've drafted and acquired over the years like Kaliyev, Fagemo, Chromiak, and to an extent, Carl Grundstrom if he raises heck in front of the net is neat enough. It's a simple line of thought, and perhaps adding a defender like Edvinsson would make sense, but it would also be the first defender drafted in the first round for LA since 2010, and they seem to prefer skill and offensive upside at almost every pick, and me, The Gut, seems to think that trend will continue.

9th Overall - Vancouver Canucks
Will Pick - Kent Johnson
Gut Pick - Mason McTavish

Will's Take: The idea of Kent Johnson at 9th overall, with the potential to hit his ceiling with the legitimate offensively talented youth in Vancouver is absolutely terrifying. There's risk with Johnson, but around here, and for the Canucks? I feel like he could be an excellent fit. Podkolzin out there raising hell in front and clearing space with Johnson feeding pucks around the ice sounds just dandy to me. The Canucks could probably use a defender here but you'd be looking at a Lambos, Chayka, Ceulemans or a Stanislav Svozil, and for all the concerns I may have about Kent, I'm not passing on Kent Johnson for one of those guys. The Canucks need to keep adding at almost every position, and Johnson is an offensive catalyst with massive potential to drive offense through his playmaking paired with names like Pettersson.

Will's Gut's Take: I've just got a great feeling about the potential for McTavish to turn into a perfectly servicable, offensive leaning centre who can get a bit grimy if need be, and Vancouver seems to value that archetype. He has rounded out his game significantly since last season, and has clearly gotten much more comfortable in the Swiss 2nd division. He's got skill, he can run a play off the boards, attack the net, he works off the puck, he's mobile, there's a lot to really like, even if he isn't likely to dominate. With names like Horvat, and the brand of player Jim Benning has brought in through free agency, McTavish could be an addition that's more up his alley than some of the more offensive skill leaning names available like Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius, or Aatu Raty.

10th Overall - Ottawa Senators
Will Pick - Mason McTavish
Gut Pick - Simon Edvinsson

Will's Take: As The Gut said in it's 9th pick writeup, McTavish feels like a player the Senators would covet if he were available and Vancouver passes on him. It appears he may not even make it as far as 9, so this all may be moot, but McTavish's well rounded game and physical intensity really scream "DJ Smith". In this universe, Guenther is available and the Senators are picking him, but McTavish's versatility and fit with his style of play pushes him past Guenther a smidge. There may be more projectable production potential with Guenther, but McTavish should add a solid piece to a strong core, and he has played centre at times, which is conveniently a position of need in the future for the Senators.

Will's Gut's Take: They've drafted Sanderson, acquired Brannstrom, they stole Mete, they've got Chabot, and if by some miracle Simon Edvinsson is available at 10, the Senators could very quickly turn into a very interesting defense crop once Sanderson comes over likely after next season. Edvinsson also strikes me as an interesting piece for that DJ Smith brand Will talked about. He's got strong defensive acumen more often than not, and if his puck management comes along and he gets more comfortable surveying the ice and executing his decisions, the Senators could be a nasty group of defensemen blending skill, defensive stability, and aggressive offense.

11th Overall - Chicago Blackhawks
Will Pick - Dylan Guenther
Gut Pick - Chaz Lucius

Will's Take: Seeing Dylan Guenther at 11 and my gut taking Simon Edvinsson at 10 just goes to show how, no matter what, most teams in this range are almost guaranteed to get a player at least some people will be shocked is still available. For the Blackhawks, Guenther is a no-nonsense pick that boosts their offense and could fit in well with recent picks and young stars like shooters Lukas Reichel and Alex DeBrincat, and participate in offensive rush play with names like Kirby Dach. Perhaps a Carson Lambos, Stanislav Svozil, or even a Scott Morrow fills a bit of a need on defense in their pipeline, but similar to Johnson earlier, I can't say not to the idea of swinging on Guenther's awareness and patience-based offensive game.

Will's Gut's Take: Chicago, NTDP... Chicago... NTDP... The Blackhawks have drafted at least one NTDP player in each of the last five drafts. They took the plunge on Reichel last year, and with the character and pedigree that Lucius brings, and the excellent finishing ability, I can't help but see Lucius with Chicago. He's powerful on his edges, if not the fastest of pacey-est player on the Earth, but if you've got guys draped on him, or the puck is bouncing around medium danger areas, he'll find a way to make a play. His ability to shovel pucks in front is underrated and rarely rewarded as assists, and while I'm skeptical of how much his game translates at 5v5, he has had injury issues this season and showed significant improvement. If that improvement continues, the Blackhawks could add an excellent offensive centre to pair with Kirby Dach.

12th Overall - Calgary Flames
Will Pick - Logan Stankoven
Gut Pick - Carson Lambos

Will's Take: This one is steamy, but I would love to see Logan Stankoven in a Flames jersey. He's a skilled, high energy winger who is constantly a thorn in the side of his opponent, and his tracked data I have so far is absolutely gobsmacking. He's small, but don't underrate his work rate, and he's both a capable scorer and a capable playmaker. His play under pressure is also better than expected, and I have a hard time not seeing him be a fascinating pick here. Calgary loves these grindy guys, and they also value skill without fear of size, especially later in the draft. This guy is both, he's fun, and he brings a contagious effort level that should get the Flames back in order once he joins the team.

Will's Gut's Take: Corson Ceulemans comes to mind as perhaps an alternate here, but when looking through my tape to make my most recent draft rankings, Lambos is the player I don't think I was giving quite enough credit to. He's highly mobile laterally and active defensively, able to quickly turn play around, and while his offensive output may be somewhat limited, and he may not have had the season you'd expect from an elite prospect, he still was effective on JYP's power play, and showed strong, mature defensive instincts coupled with strong mobility that should help replenish an aging Calgary group in the coming years.

13th Overall - Philadelphia Flyers
Will Pick - Fyodor Svechkov
Gut Pick - Matthew Coronato

Will's Take: The last time Philadelphia drafted a Russian first, it was German Rubtsov, and as much as I liked him in 2016, his career has been marred with injury and instability. I still think the Flyers will see what I see in Fyodor Svechkov and I'd certainly put his name forward as a great flyer in the future. He's smart at both ends, well refined for a centre with a great sense of awareness for his linemates, and with some of the firepower and skill Philadelphia has on the fringes, Svechkov could be a great option to anchor and stabilize those styles of player.

Will's Gut's Take: Yeah, but what if Fyodor Svechkov was American? The Flyers haven't gone with a Russian in the first round since 2016 and you just said it didn't go well, so why risk it again? Coronato is a great example of hockey sense, with a great natural feel for the game, no fear of pressure, the capability of playing any forward position, and a nice blend of skill, efficient offense, and while not the highest pace player, I've seen him manage pressure in creative ways that might appeal to NHL teams. He may not be a gamechanger, but it feels so very Flyers to draft a rock solid forward option hailing from a rival market two picks before the Rangers, and having him become a dependable option in the middle of their future lineup.

14th Overall - Dallas Stars
Will Pick - Simon Robertsson
Gut Pick - Cole Sillinger

Will's Take: Dallas loves drafting skill and is not afraid of guys that may have issues generating speed in a straight line if they have other areas that make up for it. Jason Robertson seems to be doing okay, Riley Tufte, not so much, but I can't shake the feeling that Robertsson is more of the former than the latter. He's smart, skilled, selfless, creative, and can blast a hockey puck. I've really enjoyed watching him play, and with improvements on his feet to get quicker going north/south, Robertsson's other skills should show themselves more often. Plus, it's another Robertson/Robertsson, and for all we know, this might be all we need to know about projecting hockey prospects.

Will's Gut's Take: I think Will is starting to lose it a bit. Cole Sillinger is up the same alley with a great shot, nifty skill to create space in the offensive zone, and if the expectation is that Sillinger doesn't carry a line on his own, he could be an excellent scoring option. His playmaking is underrated and didn't come out much this year, and his puck management and awareness of linemates is iffy, leading to poor passing metrics, but the guy gets chances and buries them. Doing it with raw skill and potential pace concerns really point to the Stars in my view.

15th Overall - New York Rangers
Will Pick - Aatu Raty
Gut Pick - Zachary L'Heureux

Will's Take: I can't let Aatu fall this far. In my heart of hearts, he's gone before 15, but I can totally understand why he might be a player teams in this range might have as their alternate option, and are just too spooked by his cratering production over multiple seasons. I'm personally not concerned, as through all these issues, he is now on record as being a young player working through how to manage the expectations on his shoulders, and in my tracking, he was still extremely efficient in a number of areas, showing great potential in others. I've watched a lot of Finnish junior hockey, and Raty's games down there were very illustrative of what he's capable of when he's confident and has his head in the game. Is he the kid gripping his stick too much? It seems so right now, but working through it and getting comfortable again in his level of play is going to make or break his NHL upside. I'm a believer, and I'd start bringing his name up as the Top-10 came to a close, but if he slips much further than this, it's starting to get into no-brainer territory.

Will's Gut's Take: I had a burrito last night. I'm feeling tumultuous. It's a new regime in New York so who knows what's actually going to happen, but the Rangers seem to bounce between physical players and skill players, and often bridging that gap. Does Gorton and Davidson leaving indicate more of a lean in one way or the other? We'll have to see. Considering those two were seemingly fired in a situation revolving not being comfortable vocally standing up for a star skilled winger, and with David Quinn being a coach praising hard work and physicality now gone, my hunch is that while the Rangers might not look for pure skill, they may look for a bit more... oomph(?) in their skill. Zach L'Heureux would be a very surprising pick in this range, but it could be a curious pickup for a team looking for a bit of identity. He's a player with discipline issues, but he's also a player with skill and offensive potential on many fronts. He's a top-5 volume and efficiency player when it comes to offensive transitions, he's top five in offensive threat, creating shot attempts, and dangerous shot attempts on the ice both as a team and as an individual. Again, not a player that is going to completely transform that team, but he's a player that could drop into the offense and play a slimy, straightforward game with the capability of annoying opponents. It may be a spicy pick, but it feels very Rangers in a certain way.

Scouching's Post-NHL Draft Lottery Rankings

6/2/2021

Hi everyone and a very happy Pride Month to you all! If you're new here, welcome! If you aren't, welcome back! I've gotten my first COVID vaccine dose, and I highly recommend you all do the same if you haven't already. I hope you all enjoyed the NHL Draft Lottery that went basically how the odds were laid out. Just a quick note that the mock draft is coming soon. This is not that. This is simply my view of the rough groupings of players and the order of preference within those groups where I'd use an NHL Draft Pick. I've gone through my 536 tracked performances across 130 players, and my 133 gigabytes of video clips I've pulled since October and until the draft, I believe the final rankings that will be accompanied by a video next month will look largely the same.

My read on this year's class is pretty straightforward. There is a strong top two tiers of potentially very useful core impact players, but likely not any world-ending players without improvements in certain areas of the game. As the teens become the twenties, I believe there are still quality high upside swings and solid complimentary options, but once the first round begins to wind down, who frickin' knows. It's going to be a horror show and I can't wait. Last year my list encompassed about 70 names that I was legitimately excited about, and while that number is down closer to 60 this year, there are still some fascinating players in the nooks and crannies of global hockey that I'm curious to keep an eye on in the next few years.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above. I would like to thank my Patreon and YouTube Members for the financial support of the project. It gives me life, and I'm thankful every day.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The Watchlist

Welcome to The Watchlist, which are players with data and traits that have caught my eye that may be worth keeping track of, whether they're drafted or not.
Justin Ertel is a big, strong playmaking winger who played in Junior A out in the Maritimes this year, which is hilarious to watch, but he still deserves a spot here. His size, skill and playmaking patience are an interesting combination that could come out should his power and explosiveness improve on his feet during his time at Cornell.
Tyson Galloway is a giant who logged a ton of minutes with the Calgary Hitmen this year and while he's a guy who frustrated me when the time came to make plays with the puck, he's a lovely skater with range, fluidity and skill that leads to great defensive results and potential for improvements with the puck as he gets more experience and confidence.
After doing some research, I read an interview in Sports Illustrated with Owen Bartoszkiewicz, who played in net for an NAHL expansion team, and he's a story I can absolutely get behind. Joining the Wichita Falls Warriors, he faced plenty of rubber and put up solid numbers saving shots in any situation as well as dangerous 5v5 opportunities thanks to InStat data. He has a somewhat strong track record of results, solid size, and seems to be flying under the radar.
Simon Motew was a curious case last year for the Kitchener Rangers with great Pick224 data in limited playing time, but he absolutely obliterated the USPHL this year on the backend. His skill and shot are a great combination, and post-pandemic, a return to Kitchener should do him well. I don't think the production indicates a potential steal in the draft, but he's been a cheat code this season and worth keeping an eye on.
Evan Werner might be the most fun player I've watched this year that is still the biggest longshot of those fun players I've liked. He's very small, but very skilled with a laser beam of a shot that, while I find it tough to project him as an NHL player, a year in the USHL before college, and patience to let him continue working on getting stronger and even quicker could do great things for him.
Malinen, Angesved, and Marha, are all guys that I've liked for their skating, and that's about it. Sometimes that's all you need to make a late round bet, even if they have major issues in other areas of the game.
Iivari Rasanen caught my eye in Pick224 data and his defense-first approach driven by strong skating, aggressive defense, and solid evasive skill to make strong first passes in lead me to believe that he should be a major piece of an underrated Quinnipiac team. He had a strong freshman season and whether or not he's drafted, I'm curious to see where his game goes, as I find that his great results weren't a matter of luck.
Bogdans Hodass took Gustavs Ozolins' spot on this list after the U18 tournament. I hadn't seen him play prior, but I came away impressed with his rangy mobility, flashes of skill under pressure and a great shot from the point. Again, this is the watchlist. He's a name I'm curious about, but I went in really thinking Ozolins would be their big time player, but Hodass to me showed more projectable skills.

Tier 7 - The Cupcake Zone

Evan Nause has some of the worst tracked data of any defenseman I've tracked this year, but I could easily see why he could be picked in the first two rounds. His skill under pressure and evasion ability to find new lanes and escape the defensive end are interesting and better than many, but the rest of the equation to me is largely negative. He's a player I think will be drafted well before I'm ready to pull the trigger, but with patience, there could be an interesting problem-solving defensive defender there.
Dario Sidler looked pretty wonderful at the U18 for Switzerland, and while I'm almost confident he won't see NHL ice, I can't not put the idea out there that the quick, skilled, rambunctious little defender from Z U G may juuuuuuust get there some day. He's extremely ineffective on defensive rushes, and while he's amicable with the way he hurls himself at players along the boards, he's a player who has played both sides on defense as well as a game as a winger in my tracking. He had a gorgeous primary assist from the boards in his first National League game, and his puck skill, agility, quickness, and fun factor are tremendous. He didn't look out of place in this cohort, and didn't get completely filled in against grown men in Switzerland, so I hope his lack of size only holds him back temporarily, because a 5'7" defender pulling and hurling pucks around an NHL ice surface would certainly be an experience.
Conner Roulette is one that I just can't not rank, but I question his upside. He's got skill, he escapes pressure in ways that dumbfound me, but he gets his chances. His U18 was fine, but the games I've tracked show an interesting perimeter playmaker who takes the foot off the gas defensively a bit more than I'd like. His creativity and skill are pretty neat and might be worth a bet if he's available after the first few rounds.
Kalle Vaisanen didn't have a great U18 in terms of role or impact, but boy... This is an interesting player with an archetype unlike most in the draft. He's huge, but skilled and somewhat mobile, but his bread and butter is punishment. He will get you. He drives very good results in my tracking, even if his passing involvement and non-offensive zone involvement are somewhat limited. He still go out on ice and crush, and in a way that I think could be beneficial to an NHL program. My gut tells me the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets will do their homework on this dude.
Arcuri and Voit have had my eye all year, but they've also been good in my limited eyeballs on the PBHH tournament so they're on here.
Janis Moser in the National League this year has been a pleasant surprise, so shouts out to Thibaud Chatel for mentioning him on the Chasing High Danger Podcast. He's got solid reach, mobility, but above all, he's safe in the best way. His route selection and skill to create easier passing lanes result in great on-ice impacts driven through strong defense and flashes of aggression in the offensive zone to attack the middle. He's a D+3, but he plays like he earned a captaincy, and I could see some kind of NHL defender there in the somewhat near future, which automatically makes him valuable to a certain extent.
Yeah, Gerasimyuk was bad for 5 minutes at the U18, but I've seen him plenty behind a not-good Variyagi team in the MHL facing shot after shot, and keeping his team in continuously. European goalies who are not small, and get good practice facing pucks in strong systems with years of good results check a lot of boxes for me. As a late round swing, you could probably do much worse and buy low on the guy who struggled briefly and landed on the bench.

Tier 6 - Curious Cases and Such

Danila Klimovich's skill and shot combo are real high level and since the U18s, he has shot up boards. I honestly can't say he doesn't deserve to be ranked, and while I think a top two round ranking is a bit much considering the limitations of his game elsewhere, he should get picked, probably will get picked, and with time, could become a useful sniper down the road.
People ask me about Kisakov all the time, and I know why. He's scoring a lot in the MHL, and I've tracked quite a few games, but I still don't know what to think. He's got some skill, he isn't slow, he gets to the front of the net, but I'm not sure there's enough outside of him being a pace-pusher in a league with no pace. He's inconsistent earning offensive transitions with control, shows mixed results defensively, but overall he drives solid results. He's a weird one. I can see why he'd be a first round pick to some teams, but my gut tells me he's a hard one to project.
Yeah, the Zach's are in here. I have much more time for Zach Dean than Zach Bolduc, to be honest, but I think Dean's game is hard to project to the NHL. He's skilled, agile, creative and slippery, but in three of four games I've tracked, he has struggled to consistently drive play, struggled to escape pressure, struggled to consistently get pucks to linemates, and as an NHL player, it's possible to see it work out, but I'm more favorable to him as a 2nd or 3rd round skilled winger to bet on.
On Zach Bolduc, he's only a bit behind Dean, but I just don't know. If Bolduc is your team's first round pick, I really hope his results take a turn in the next couple of years. He shoots from low danger constantly, he doesn't get pucks inside much at all, he's efficient in offensive transitions and mobile on his feet, but his fundamental ability to hit targets can be questionable, he doesn't complete many of his dangerous pass rates, and he is one of the most passive and ineffective defensive rush defenders I've tracked. He has positive traits, but as a whole, he's a tough one for me to get behind.
Samu Salminen scores a ton, scored a ton at the U18, but I'm not sure the offense follows him to the NHL. His body weight gives him speed generation with his turns, but his pace, skill, and straight line speed, are questionable. His sense of awareness and ability to make simple, no-nonsense plays that put points on the board is what drives his production, but I'm not surprised there's a bit of a mismatch between his placement on rankings and his production/size profile.
Lorenzo Canonica, Robert Orr, and Jackson Blake are small, rambunctious players who all come with skill, creativity, and offensive potential. Canonica is one of the most heavily involved defensive forwards I've tracked, and is often effective and causing issues for opponents. All these players have the benefit of youth as well, and with patience, they could all turn into interesting projects.
The other young player, Oliver Kapanen, is a player more driven by intelligence and efficiency. I wasn't surprised to see a bit of an exposure to his lack of pace and dynamic ability in the U18 tournament, horrific incident aside. He's crafty and smart, drives good results getting into the right place at the right time, but if you're expecting Kasperi Kapanen 2.0, he is not that.
I just want to extend a note to Cole Jordan as well. He's a quick, rangy defender with solid defensive traits, and the potential to be a remarkable offensive rush quarterback, but you just don't see it very often. Nobody makes more pass attempts than him, but 81 players complete more passes than him on average. He defaults to dumps and weak passes to nobody far more often than he should, but taking things into his own hands and driving an offensive rush should be doable with his strength and mobility.

Tier 5 - The T a k e Zone

Here's where things get a bit spicy. These are the names that are a combination of somewhat limited ceilings but solid floors of talent in names like Harrison, Kirsanov, Othmann, and Chayka, and high risk/high reward options that scream fun factor like Kuzmin, Almquist, Gustafsson, Behrens, Tschigerl, Tichacek and Duke.
I love watching Dylan Duke. He's aggressive, quick, gets to the net and drives results. He's an energy guy, but he produces. I think a team willing to look past his frame will be rewarded with a hard working player who can get the job done in crunch time through both net front shot generation and underrated playmaking. He's part of the 30+ club in offensive threat (dangerous shooting combined with dangerous passing), and sits fourth in that metric, with the 3rd highest rate of dangerous shots for.
On the other hand, I feel as though Dylan Duke outshines Sasha Pastujov on a shift-by-shift basis. Pastujov is slow, inactive defensively, but brings excellent practical skill under pressure and crafty, slippery playmaking at his own pace. I question the NHL upside, but he's young, has time to develop, and if his skating and pace grow, he could be a nice pickup late. At the same time, he's taking 70% of his shots from low danger, so that's not ideal, and he only completes 42% of those dangerous pass attempts. Duke on the other hand takes 73% of his shot attempts from dangerous areas and completed 63% of his dangerous pass attempts.
Speaking of the NTDP, Sean Behrens is perplexing. I think there's upside there, but his quickness and agility without the puck is an issue, as he can get left behind on defensive cycles and is among the worst suppressors of dangerous shot attempts that I've tracked, leading to a 41% DSAT%. His skill and offensive creation, as well as his positional neutral zone defense are interesting, but he's a small defender who might struggle to project.
Lukas Gustafsson is a fascinating one. I see a ton of potential with him. Yes, he's a prep kid who had limited USHL exposure, but relative to other viewings of Steel defenders, Gustafsson should've been a mainstay on that team. His lateral mobility to cover ice is excellent. His skill level is very high and he uses it to create space and deceive opponents extremely well. He's aggressive with his offense, sometimes to his detriment, but I feel like letting him make mistakes and learn, while letting him try to refine the offensive side of the game could be greatly rewarding. He's apparently returning to be a top defender for the Steel next year, and I expect if he's not drafted his year, that eyeballs will be on him next year. I just really, really like this guy's game and as a late round swing, you could do much worse.
Olen Zellweger and Aleksi Heimosalmi have shot up my list, especially after the U18. Zellweger really only shows weaknesses with generating quick speed in pressure situations, and beginning offensive rushes, but the games I've tracked have been extremely promising with one game being extremely bonkers. Heimosalmi's skill and skating combination, as well as his sense for gap management and stick checking are impressive. Both players will need to be stronger and even better on their feet, but they're promising undersized defenders.
Speaking of undersized, Dmitri Kuzmin? Tons of fun, slick skill, great at the U18. No surprise to me. Jiri Tichacek? Not so great, but not bad at the U18, and also tons of fun that I believe could be a solid defender with time and patience. Marcus Almquist is a player who has so much talent, but not much of a feel for the game in a unit. He's skilled, quick, covers a tremendous amount of ice, and just a ton of fun to watch regardless of when he's playing. He's a guy who isn't doing a whole lot except zipping around open ice, but when he gets the puck, he has some high skill, high fun moments that make him a very interesting pickup.
I bumped Jake Martin down a bit after going through my tape, and I certainly think you could land him as a solid defensive option much later than the 2nd round. He's got a ways to go to improve, but he's been flying under the radar for the NTDP this season and has been impressive in my work.
Ryder Korczak... I don't know. I've seen very little improvement over last year, and if anything there has been regression. He's a great creator of shot assists, and rock solid offensive transition player, but that's where things end. Those shot assists aren't going to the middle of the ice, and that transition data is far less favorable on the other side of the puck. Moose Jaw doesn't produce dangerous chances with him on the ice, and he's taking 80% of his attempts from low danger in my work. It's a tough call to me. I think there's potential with his quickness and flashes of skill, but I just don't know what's going to happen with him on draft day.
Brent Johnson and Jack Peart are big names I've really enjoyed. Peart is a bit more involved in offensive rushes, but far less effective, while Johnson is more involved defensively, more aggressive with his offensive threat, and more efficient defensively. Peart's deception and vision with the puck through the NZ is really intriguing and if his ability to manage gaps and cleanly execute on his passes to mantain control on more offensive transitions will be good next steps for him. They're both fascinating players to watch, and I'm excited to see where they go next month.
On the right day, William Stromgren would be a tier higher. I've seen him play on the right day before, but I also have seen him largely fade into the background, allowing linemates to take up too much responsibility while he awaits the game to come to him. He's a wonderful package of fluid skating, evasive skill, offensive aggression and creativity, and I will bet on what players show me at their best, so if Stromgren's name comes up as high as 25 or so, you have my interest. He's a curious one, and I am a fan, but inconsistencies are there.

Tier 4 - A Bunch of Hockey Players

I got on the Ayrton Martino train, but have slowly come back to Earth. I believe he's a first round talent offensively, and there's a report coming soon on him, but I think there's a ton of potential with his creativity, skill, and effective offensive game per puck touch.
Sebastian Cossa? I dunno, he's huge, has stopped pucks for years, outperformed his xGA according to InStat, and seems to be excellent tracking pucks with lateral mobility staying square to pucks and locked into his technique. My gut tells me he's legit, but I'd let my goalie people help me take the chance on him.
Scott Morrow is one of the highest ceiling defenders in this draft in my opinion. He's skilled, rangy, daring with the puck and while he was punching below his weight class with Shattuck St. Mary's, his USHL time was far better than his 0 points would indicate.
I tried to hold back on Matthew Coronato for a while, but he just kept getting better and better every time I saw him. He played every forward position, and while he was playing with overagers and I think his production is a bit inflated, he's extremely smart, practical, has a great feel for the game, and just keeps putting up results in a variety of areas. 20% of his team's shot attempts with him on the ice are Coronato from danger, good for 6th in my tracking. 2nd in OCZT%, 3rd in COZT/60, top 20 in dangerous shot attempts/60 and involvement at both bluelines going either direction. He's all over the ice driving solid results, especially in the offensive direction, and with improvements to his speed, and comfort with that higher pace, he could be a heck of an all-around forward.
There's a report coming on Ville Koivunen coming, but rest assured, I think he's very good. One of the smartest and most selfless players that you'll rarely notice unless you're really paying attention, but he's just effective and makes everyone's life a little easier. He exudes team play, got better as the year went on and I'm all about players like that.
I've gone back and watched the Lambos tape I pulled and definitely see more there than I was giving him credit for, so Carson, I apologize. Is he a top pick as he was early in the year? Probably not. Is he a 2nd round pick? Definitely not. He's mobile laterally unlike many in the draft, involved in play constantly, and from a defense-first perspective that rewards him with some production, there's a lot to like. One of the most active defenders in transitions going both ways, he oddly shows up in the data like a Jack Peart-brand of impact player, but just... more good. More active offensively, more active defensively, equally active with his passing, but more offensive threat. He enters the OZ with control 19% of the time which is among the worst I've tracked, but if your team really loves the idea of a dump and chase offense, his defensive ability and skill might be a worthwhile bet in the first round.
Stanislav Svozil is a player I'd love to hop in a time machine and see play in 2026. I don't know what he's going to be, but there are a lot of interesting tools that seem to have been overlooked due to lacklustre international performances. Svozil is mobile, refined on defensive rushes with his gap control and physical imposition, and while his OCZT% was poor, similar to Lambos, much of that comes from dumping pucks into the offensive zone, and iffy pass execution on stretch passes. If he can settle down a bit on the ice, get more confident at high levels of play, and work on his skill and agility at low pace, he could be a truly impressive dynamic defender at both ends. He might be a player available on Day 2, and could be a curious project pickup for a rebuilding team.

Tier 3 - The Consolation Prizes

So you missed the playoffs and didn't win the lottery and you aren't the Arizona Coyotes. That's really too bad, but any one of these players are great adds. They aren't that far behind the group ahead of them, but it's still a step back to me.
I absolutely adore watching Logan Stankoven. His WHL data I tracked was staggeringly good in the offensive direction, and at times even defensively. He's an exceptionally hard worker who can chain together tremendous offensive shifts and absolutely smash his enemies into the ground. I mean, the guy is #1 in offensive threat, completing dangerous passes, creating or taking shot attempts for his team, #2 in DSAT%, DSAT/60, and top 10 in the percentage of his team's shot attempts that are taken by Stankoven from danger, controlling offensive transitions, and the percentage of his passes that are dangerous. He's one of the rare players that you know exactly what you're getting every time he steps on the ice, and he will absolutely be a player that makes bigger players think twice about underrating his tenacity, strength and work rate. I could write all day about him and still have more to say, and I think he absolutely belongs as high on my list as he is here.
McTavish will likely be getting a report, but I don't think there's a player that has surprised me relative to last year, and improved as much as he has while in Switzerland this year. Last year, he was largely a shoot-first player, finding open space and ripping pucks into nets without tremendous pace or skating skill, but this year, he's mobile, rambunctious, effective at both ends, and is trying to make plays as much as he's trying to score pucks in a men's pro league. I think the hype train is a little out of control after an impressive U18, but if he's a guy your team reaches a little on in the back half of the Top 10, it might not be the call I make, but it isn't a bad call whatsoever. He can play down the middle, he can play the wing, he can score, he can make a play off the boards, and he's more than capable of getting the puck back if your team doesn't have it. Can't ask for much more in a player, even if there isn't a ton that's necessarily "elite".
Yeah, Simon Robertsson wasn't great often for Sweden at the U18s, but nobody was on that team. They looked slow, disjointed, passive, and conservative offensively. I still believe in what I've seen of Robertsson in Sweden with the skill, intelligence, and flashes of speed and shooting talent that should make him a great pickup. If he's a contending team's pick late in the 1st round, I am a fan of that team.
The Church of Fyodor has been in my life for almost the entire season, and I'm happy to be a ranking member. So smart, so effective, so creative, so much fun to watch in isolation, and a lot of that was on display in Texas. Joining SKA St. Petersburg is a big step for him, and a welcome one because watching Lada Togliatti, uh, sucked.

Tier 2 - Still Tier 1B

ok here's where we get into the steamy takes.
Put these guys in a blender and I'd be happy with basically any order. So much is going to come down to team ethos and fit within their system, as well as managing expectations. Could you run a line through Dylan Guenther? Probably not, but as a complimentary scorer in a top six that can put points on the board? Yep. Could you run a line through Kent Johnson? Probably not, but if you can get him the puck in the neutral zone with speedy, aggressive forwards who can find space in the offensive zone, Johnson could be a monster playmaker with a side of solid goal scoring. Those two are interesting options that I could easily see drafted much higher, but I have my concerns with both.
Yes, I'm still on the Aatu Raty train. Scott Wheeler's excellent profile of him from this week illuminated many things that I had caught onto with regards to his confidence, comfort level, and uncertainty with himself that were very clear to me through his play on the ice. He's a goal scorer who struggles to score goals on paper, but there is so much more to Raty than that. He's a mobile and skilled centre with a solid frame and tons of potential. He was absolutely dominant at the U20 level, and looked much improved post-World Juniors snub. He wasn't getting a ton of help from his linemates, and still managed to get shot attempts off from dangerous areas at a very high rate for a pro player. The signs are there for hope, but I can't ignore the risk if he never figures it out. Still, with his profile, I can't see a world where he isn't some kind of contributor with the fundamentals he possesses.
Brandt Clarke is another one of those time machine players. He consistently struggles to maintain control transitioning pucks offensively, but his abilities in the offensive zone cannot be denied. His ability to shake defenders, step into the offensive zone for better looks, and sustain pressure is remarkable. His fluidity on his feet allows him to cover ice, block lanes, and challenge opponents effectively. He's much less effective shutting down defensive entries, but he's no slouch in that area. I could see him going much higher, but I've got questions that haven't really been answered, even after his excellent U18 tournament.
So, Owen Power was unanimous at #1 on Bob McKenzie's board, and I'm almost certain he'll be gone before 7, but I cannot for the life of me set aside the issues I have seen that plague Power's game at times, and hope that if he's the first name off the board, NHL teams will realistically view him through the lens of both strengths and weaknesses, and put too much on his plate too fast. Yes, he's at the World Championships and doing relatively well, but Power is a player where public reports aren't exactly glowing about what makes him a potential special NHL player, yet still put him at #1 on the hopes of him developing into something he isn't really at the moment. When he gets a head of steam going through the NZ, and when he gets set up in the offensive zone with control of the puck, he can be a monster. Defensively though, he's passive on rushes, but efficient when involved, pucks bleed through him in the defensive zone leading to poor DSATA rates, he invites pressure to himself while surveying the ice, and most concerning of all, his stability and comfort on defensive zone retrievals is at times extremely concerning. I'm sure there's an effective NHL defender there with some power play upside, but he has spooked me for two years now, and in my work, my philosophy, and my gut, I can't make the case for him as the #1 player available.

Tier 1 - The Unchanged.

We've arrived at the top. Neat! A lot of folks might disagree with me on this, and that's cool, and I mean no disrespect to the players ranked behind this tier that are often ranked as the draft's best, but I believe framing the value of players in the draft properly is vital to finding the best possible selection for your team, and these players either have set themselves apart as impact players, or very easily could with some time to develop.
Luke Hughes is nearly a 2022 eligible defender, and the only player outside of Dylan Guenther born in the last six months of draft eligibility in the top two groups. He's skilled, aggressive, ruthless with his offensive approach to a rush, and while there are holes in his game, and I've been alerted to off-ice concerns that have him down on some NHL lists, those holes can be patched with his natural skating talent and skill, and people can mature. The NHL team that picks him will need to be well aware of all the factors at play, and manage them. With patience and care, Hughes could turn into a dynamic offensive defenseman who can quarterback a rush. Why is he a tier above Power? The two are a whole year apart, and after seeing Hughes this year, and Power last year, I'd rather draft Hughes and see where he's at in a year. Yes, Power is playing college hockey, but Hughes is more active in play going both directions, significantly more threatening offensively at 5v5 off his own stick, and I believe has better mobility on his feet in four directions. It's very close, but this is where I lean, personally.
Fabian Lysell at 4? Heck yeah. Yes, his consistent creation ability at 5v5 in the U18 tournament can be questioned, sure. That team wasn't great on the whole and I felt Lysell was one of a small number that legitimately showed up ready to play every game. Teams and scouts might be unsettled with his orchestrated departure from Frolunda. Whatever. The point is, I've seen Lysell play in the J20, SHL, and international level, and if we're in the game of projecting great talent into the future, Lysell is one of the most high octane, high intensity, eff you kind of hockey players you're going to find. His pace and speed are almost too high for his brain to keep up. His quick strike offense in the SHL was there. He was trying to make plays, he was attacking the net, he has skill, he has quickness, he works his rear end off without the puck. I could go on. There's tremendous potential and I can't shake it. He could be as good as he wants to be if he puts in the work, and the right coaches and team systems can help him along. I think he's misunderstood and rightfully deserves a spot in the top group in this year's draft.
If you nail a pick on a goalie and land a franchise piece, job security significantly improves until they leave or retire. Jesper Wallstedt is an 18 year old goaltender who played in 22 of his SHL pro team's 52 games, with a high workload stopping dangerous attempts, and finished with a .908 save percentage. Here are all the other goalies that have ever done that any time in the recent past:
William Eklund is just sick. Buzzsaw player who can cover a ton of ice without the puck, control transitions extremely well with it, drive offense through his playmaking and the odd dangerous attack here and there, and while his second half trailed his first, he could be an excellent scoring piece to add to a team's top six assuming he isn't relied upon to carry a line. Tons of fun to watch, and tons of potential once he gets stronger.
Yep, Matthew Beniers is locked in at #1 to me. I adore watching him play. He's exactly the kind of centre I'd build a line around. Mobile, skilled, high work rate at both ends, selfless with the puck, uses wingers to his advantage, supports his defenders, and while he underperforms at getting shot attempts from inside the dangerous areas (just 30%), he has the potential to be significantly better here, and that was an issue that plagued Michigan almost ubiquitously. He's a glue player, and any NHL team is greatly benefitted from strong glue players. The Buffalo Sabres have a goal scoring weapon in Jeff Skinner for example, and Matty Beniers could be a great piece to at least try to get pucks onto his stick so he can explode them into a net somewhere. Prefer Victor Olofsson? Same goes for him too. Need a guy to support that defense group? Beniers can do that. Is he NHL-ready? I'd certainly consider it, but won't guarantee it. Is he the most likely to be the highest overall impact player in the draft? I believe so.

That's it! Thanks so much for reading. As always thank you so much for all your support, no matter how you do it. Please consider subscribing to any and all platforms where I'm available for more great content. There's a mock draft coming soon, and there's always more videos on the way, but we're getting down to crunch time. Like I said, this draft is likely to be a horror show, but I'm so, so excited to see what happens. I'm ready for the spiciest hockey burrito I've ever eaten, and I hope you all feel the same by the time July 23.

Also, just to reiterate, it'd be great if we all got vaccinated and followed the public health guidelines so we can get through the final stages of this complete nightmare as quickly and effectively as possible. If anything, do it for the heroes who were subjected to the Toronto Maple Leafs effort that will go into the hockey history books on May 31, 2021. They've been through enough, so the least you could do is get jabbed. There's nothing to worry about, the process is efficient, and it goes a long way to helping your community and local businesses get back on track.

Thanks again, and see you soon for more stuff.

The 2021 IIHF U-18 Tournament Recap

5/13/2021

A big reason why I'm such a fan of this tournament is because it can be messy, fun hockey that showcases just how bright the future of this game is. This season was not only no different, but felt like that was ratcheted up to 11 out of 10. Maybe it's the two year period it's been without this tournament, maybe it's the raw talent of the names coming to the NHL in the future, maybe it's that a number of high end players were able to play when they normally wouldn't, maybe it's all of the above, but this tournament was a heck of a show and I wish I could've been there.

I won't waste a ton of time before breaking each team's effort down individually, but I also just want to mention that the U18 to me is just a nice tournament to casually evaluate specific cases, rather than making large judgements regarding a players game. It's short, many players have had tumultuous seasons, and lots of bounces going one way or the other can make a player seem much better or worse, so it's important to be careful when making observations. The way I see it, this tournament was a great experience to see cases who have caught my eye like Dmitri Kuzmin, Aleksi Heimosalmi, Ville Koivunen, and see what happens when their level of play is elevated to high end global talent, and what happens when they're on small ice. In some cases, my thoughts were confirmed. In others, it makes me want to go back and take another look. Which ones were which? Find out below!

10. Germany (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 10
MVP: Bennet Roßmy

I honestly don't really know what to say about the German team from this year. I saw their games, rewatched a bunch in the time since, and I still have a hard time identifying points to take home of any kind. They seemed outmatched in every game, struggled to score, struggled to keep up with the pace, and struggled to keep the puck out of their net. They were there, they showed up, and Bennet Roßmy showed his shot and range here and there.

Roßmy was the guy I had my eye on going into the tournament, and while I came away leaning more towards taking him off my list, he was still a threatening player for the Germans from time to time. Nikita Quapp had some nice moments when tested in net, but I'm really grasping at straws here. I thought Latvia was a more cohesive and talented unit and had there been a relegation round, I imagine the Germans would be against the ropes, but we'll see what they fire back with in 2022. At least Julian Lutz can come back?

9. Latvia (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 9
MVP: Martins Lavins

The Latvians were in tough, and needed to hope for a victory against Belarus or Switzerland to pull off a quarterfinal appearance. Funnily enough, their closest games were against Switzerland and future champions Canada, losing 4-2 in both. I felt the Latvians came to play, but the jump in talent to this tournament for many of these young players was huge. They played as a unit and worked off each other well, but they just had trouble pushing back against high-end opponents and high intensity defensive play.

Gustavs Ozolins was a guy I had my eye on, and while I saw the skill and passing ability on display on breakouts especially, he seemed to have issues taking over play and driving possession consistently. Martins Lavins, Darels Dukurs, and Anri Ravinskis were players who I felt came the closest to truly challenging their opponents, but nobody on this team jumped out at me as "I should be drafted" talents. Lavins gets my MVP for the mobility and pace he brought from time to time, even if he didn't necessarily dominate his team and his opponents. Their effort was admirable, I enjoyed watching them push back against Canada pretty hard, and I do think they'd avoid relegation, but they were in a tough spot to begin with, and their results reflect that. Again, a team where it's hard to write anything extremely constructive, but they were there!

8. Switzerland (1-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 7
MVP: Dario Sidler

Another team where I just shrug my shoulders and want to move on. They beat the Latvians, which should be assumed for a country like Switzerland, but other than that, they were not particularly competitive. Kevin Pasche played well in net, Louis Robin had some nice moments that I caught with some pace and skill, and I did come away curious about Livio Truog for the 2022 draft, but high-scoring names in Switzerland's lower levels were largely nowhere to be found. Reichle, Bougro, Prada, Biasca, all didn't show a whole lot that really moved the needle for me. In my view, this was expected after having watched my fair share of Swiss junior hockey. The Swiss are in a bit of a down period, but Lian Bichsel had some interesting flashes of defensive, physical play so I'll be curious to see what he can do next year.

My MVP was without a doubt the best player on the Swiss team in Dario Sidler. Again, he isn't a player I'd likely take a swing on in the NHL Draft, but if it were pick 224 and a bunch of other names I like are off the board, sure. Why not. I expected him to struggle a bit in this tournament with the defensive gap control and pressure application that I've seen in his experience with Zug, but the offense is there. He's mobile, highly skilled, and sends hard, crisp passes around the ice to push play. Of all the teams covered to this point, Sidler was the biggest standout to me, and I think he turned a few heads. He's obviously remarkably tiny, and he's obviously a longshot, and I will bet that the majority of NHL teams have no interest, but it's hard to deny his results. He led the team in SAT%, he led the team in scoring, he wasn't on the ice for a goal against at even strength, and I'll be curious to see what comes of his career in the coming years.

7. Czech Republic (1-3-0-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 6
MVP: Jakub Brabenec

Every team prior to the Czechs failed to score 7 goals in their entire tournament, so that makes real heavy, detailed analysis tough. With the Czechs, while they scored more, they are still in the same boat where there isn't really all that much to write home about. My guy Jiri Tichacek was... fine? Not great, not terrible, but I can't say I didn't expect a bit more. David Jiricek? Again, fine, but not what I expected. Simon Marha, Jakub Altrichter, and Jakub Brabenec all had moments of speed, skill and resiliency that I liked, but nothing that significantly moved the needle for me, which lines up with my experience with these players going into the tournament.

The biggest name, Stanislav Svozil was largely invisible in my view. I still have him rated in my 1st round for his mobility, skill and defensive maturity, but I really expected the Czech defense group to really be able to drive play and show how deep they are, but unfortunately I didn't see a ton that was particularly notable. Tomas Hamara is a player I've enjoyed in Finland, and he should be back next year, so there's at least that to look forward to, but again, this team gets a shrug from me. They got bamboozled by the Finns, as Finns can do, and they gave up 10 goals against the two teams that ended up in the gold medal final, which tells you a lot of what you need to know.

6. Belarus (2-3-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 8
MVP: Danila Klimovich

Pre-tournament, I called Belarus underrated, and I feel a little bit vindicated. If we're talking teams that maximized their talent level and then some on top, it was Belarus. Dmitri Kuzmin had a coming out party as a legitimate NHL prospect as an offensively skilled defenseman, and of course he pulled out a lacrosse move to score a goal early in the tournament. Tikhon Chayka played well in net, doing what he needed to do to keep his team in it. I felt that if their game against Sweden was played more at 5v5, it would've been significantly closer than it was. They beat Latvia worse than Canada did, and in my view, they put up an impressive performance against Canada that showed that they could at least hang with the big dogs. I didn't expect Belarus to medal, but I also didn't expect Belarus to be down just 3-2 against the Russians going into the 3rd period of their quarterfinal, ending up outshooting them in a 5-2 loss.

It'd be too easy for me to put Dmitri Kuzmin as my MVP, but Danila Klimovich is hard to ignore. His skill with his hands, and pure shooting ability were on display, and well past what I expected going into this tournament. I'm a little skeptical of his legitimacy as an NHL prospect, but I can see him getting a flyer later on. If you can score, you can score, and he did the thing twice as often as any of his teammates.

They've got five players eligible to return, and their U18 and U17 program seem to get better and better over time recently. I'll have my eye out for their team next year, even if it lacks names like Kuzmin, Klimovich, Mikhalyov, and Morozov. The Belarusians were the team I enjoyed watching the most, relative to my expectations, and good on them for their effort this year.

5. United States (1-1-2-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 1
MVP: Dylan Duke

The States were my biggest whiff going into this year's tournament, as I had them pegged as a potential gold medal winner. Well, that did not happen. In fact, the States haven't lose in the quarterfinals at this tournament since I was in elementary school 20 years ago. I didn't think this team would struggle like they did, with three games going to overtime, and a quarterfinal against a Swedish team who decided they wanted to win a game when it mattered, but here we are. The goaltending wasn't great, and the States got exposed for issues that can be shrouded against USHL competition with regard to their pace, skill, and reliance on soft opponent defending to get pucks into the net. Curious names I had my eye on like Gilmartin, Janicke, and St. Louis, were all not much of an impact, Sean Behrens exemplified the issues in his game that may hold him back from serious NHL upside surrounding his puck management, power generation and defensive pressure application at times. While Sasha Pastujov was impressive on the scoresheet as he is all year, and he still cemented himself as a legitimate NHL prospect in my books, I still fail to see a player that can maintain this scoring pace year over year without significant help on the ice with him. Great finishing ability, great skill under pressure to find open ice, but he's a big "I don't know" case study.

I did come away most impressed with Dylan Duke for reasons I expected coming in. He's tenacious, hard on pucks, plays fast, and can be a real nightmare around the net. He was a major driver of play when I saw him on the ice, and while he may not be an NHL scoring threat, I do think there's a rambunctious, energetic winger there that coaches would like to have. He gets to the net, bashes pucks, bashes players, and plays with a fearlessness that helps elevate undersized players like him.

The States did bring along a promising group of 2022 and 2023 eligibles, even if they struggled to move the needle this year. Lane Hutson was the most pleasant surprise to me with skill, speed and aggression that I always love to see. If it wasn't Dylan Duke getting my MVP, it would've been Hutson. Isaac Howard and Charlie Stramel are likely to return next year, and I thought they both played well. If Stramel fills out a bit, he could be a heck of a skilled power forward. Rutger McGroarty is a player I've seen quite a bit this year, and he's a big "we'll see" for next year. He's talented, but I didn't see a tremendous amount in this tournament that made me race to put him higher on my priority list for 2022.

I hope this is just an off-year for the States. Seven players are eligible to come back next year, and names like Cruz Lucius, Seamus Casey, Tyler Duke, Maddox Fleming, and Frank Nazar will be there in 2022, so hopefully they're able to get back to where they've been in the last 20 years.

4. Finland (3-2-1-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 5
MVP: Ville Koivunen

You want to talk about roller coaster hockey, the Finns brought it. Two enormous comebacks, one against the Russians, and another against the Czechs were not out of character for Finland, and they were a heck of a team to watch. Aleksi Heimosalmi confirmed his status as a legitimate NHL prospect, controversially winning defenseman of the tournament, but he was certainly in that conversation. His skill, mobility, and offensive potential were all on display, and I certainly will be going back to track more of him before the draft. I'm still low on Samu Salminen, seven goals aside. His pace is slow, he overpowers junior competition without a ton of skill or speed, and five of his goals came on power plays. Maybe there's a bottom six player for an NHL team there who you can park in the middle of the ice on a power play, but I'm not fond of the idea of using a high pick on the high-scoring Finnish junior player.

There were a lot of eyes on Brad Lambert, and I do believe he showcased the extremely high end raw talent there, but I can't shake the feeling that he's a player who needs to simplify things a little bit to maximize his overall impact on the game. He can put the puck on his stick and skate a few laps around the offensive zone with nobody able to touch him, but if those chances end up with a spin shot from low or medium danger, you aren't likely to score a ton of goals doing that. Finding linemates with seam passing, and being able to push and pull the flow of your game should be next steps for him, but the talent is undeniable.

Samu Tuomaala was a player I had my eyes on going into this tournament, and he came away more impressive than I expected. His natural style of play doesn't feel like it would work in the NHL, with tons of speed, and not much in the way of attack-minded offense, but he sure can shoot the puck, and he shot the puck good in Texas this year. I didn't bump him up my list much, but he certainly looks like a curious case for a team to work with over the next few years.

Kalle Ervasti was a case of "I want to see what he can do outside his club team", and while I thought he played okay when he did play, I was disappointed to see him out of the lineup and struggle a bit. I still believe there's a good defensive player there, so if it means you can get him later, I'm for it. Same goes for the other Kalle, Kalle Väisänen. Viljami Juusola showed off his mobility and reminded me I need to go back and track some more of him as well.

People still seem to be undervaluing Ville Koivunen. He's so crafty and intelligent with his awareness of linemates and ability to take care of the puck. His pure offensive finishing ability came out more than I expected, and I was pleasantly surprised at how much of an impact Koivunen had. If he's still a player teams are sleeping on going into the draft, I'm more than happy to pick him up much later than he should go in July.

The Finns only notable returnee is likely to be Joakim Kemell, who had nice moments here and there, but Topi Rönni, Jere Lassila, and Santeri Sulku are all interesting names to keep an eye on for next year.

3. Sweden (5-2-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 4
MVP: Fabian Lysell

If there were an award for Most Improved Team, Sweden would be the only contender. They looked completely broken, slow, and generally awful to start the tournament. They struggled against Belarus, played like a national team from Mongolia against Canada, and struggled against Switzerland, but as time went on, more and more pieces began falling into place, and Sweden managed to find their stride when it mattered, pushing the powerhouse Americans out of the tournament, and at least competing with an overwhelming Canadian offense until the 3rd period of their semifinal. It's hard to compete when you can't get a save, which was an issue for stretches of the tournament, but the team struggled to generate clean breakouts, struggled to get pucks inside, and struggled to push pace against competitive opponents. The best and worst bits of Simon Edvinsson were on display, with some awful defensive play early in the tournament closing out defensive rushes and struggling with lateral mobility and relying on his reach to counter speed, but he became more of a two-way threat more and more as time went on.

My biggest takeaway for Sweden is the group of 2022 eligibles that I felt showed more consistently, even if they weren't the most effective players on the roster. Ludvig Persson was an exciting presence that I'll have a close eye on next year, as was Noah Östlund. I expected a serious performance from Elias Salomonsson, and while I wouldn't say he played poorly, he wasn't quite as effective as I expected. The fun-factor potential of Mattias Hävelid also was on display as a mobile puck mover, which I'm always interested in, and he's been impressive in my viewings back in Sweden.

Fabian Lysell, in my view was one of a very small number of players that was out there at least trying to drive play and drag Sweden into being competitive from game 1. He can fly, he's creative, he drove offense well, and I still believe that with patience, there could be a tremendous hockey player in Fabian Lysell. He had trouble consistently driving pucks inside, but so did the entire Swedish team. At this point, I'm not sure what else people need to see out of Lysell to consider him an excellent option for this year's draft, but it still feels as though I'm on an island with my view on him.

Isak Rosén did score quite a few goals, and his release really is something. My tracked data on him puts him as one of the better drivers of dangerous shooting off his own stick this season, and that checks out based on this. He struggled to drive the puck really deep into the offensive zone, but his medium range threat was undeniable. The other high end Swedish draft eligible, Simon Robertsson was... up and down. I'd be lying if I said I didn't expect more from him. It really feels like depending on the night, you could get highly different versions of Robertsson. He played well in the bronze medal game, and did improve as the tournament went on, but this is a player I've seen really take over a game, especially at the junior level, and I didn't see that here. If it means he slips in the draft, so be it. Similar to previous names, I'd be happy to land him later than he should go.

All in all, I was happy to see Sweden continuously improve, and while their semifinal ended with 6 goals against in the 3rd period, I still felt that there were positive things to take hom. The future of hockey in Sweden seems bright, and even though there were hiccups and questionable tactical decisions this year regarding line construction and who was getting ice time, I felt the team got better and rightfully earned a bronze medal with a dominant 8-0 over the Finns.

2. Russia (4-1-1-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 3
MVP: Matvei Michkov

Game 1 against the United States brought back the old adage of "never bet against Russian kids playing hockey". They are competitive, play a full 60 minutes, and they go fast. If they get in your head, it can be hard to get them out. The Russians were largely very impressive this year, but were marked by enormous talent coming in the 2022 and 2023 draft. Ivan Miroshnichenko: Legit. Danila Yurov: Legit. Matvei Michkov: lol. Sergei Ivanov immediately took over in net and looked great. Kirill Gerasimyuk did not have a great first start, and never saw the net again, so that's unfortunate, but I can't see how he isn't worth drafting.

Bringing things back to 2021, I thought Prokhor Poltapov played his best hockey I've seen him play. Tremendous physical resiliency under pressure, great skill in transition, and a daring power winger game that I haven't seen consistently this year. It wasn't enough to bump him into my first round, but he was impressive, and I do think this is a player with a reasonably high floor of talent and could make a nice pickup in the second round. Many who are in this world have been on the Svechkov train, including myself, and this tournament indicated why. He was, to me, tremendous. Second best SAT%, put passes out in front, finished plays himself, and drove offensive transitions with control and pace. There's a lot to like about Svechkov, and a lot of it was on display. More eyes may have been on the flashier Chibrikov, and he was better than I expected going in, with more defensive intensity and involvement than I've seen for large parts of this season. He showed off his skill, and pace that gets snuffed out against VHL and KHL competition often, but it was there. I'm still not as high on him as I am with Svechkov, but he made me check myself a bit for sure.

I don't really know what I can say about Matvei Michkov that hasn't been said already. He's a ruthless goal scorer, with a combination of skill, power, determination, and pure shooting talent that is rare at such an age. I mean, he scored over 30 goals with SKA's top junior team. He's sick. He's going to be a high draft pick, and this was his first real public showing of just how talented he could be. Ivan Miroshnichenko is a guy who I think I will latch onto very, very hard next year with his skill, speed, and dual threat offense. He's so much fun to watch and he'll be one of the first names tracked once hockey gets going next year, Plus, six players are eligible to return next year, so I imagine they'll be just as competitive in 2022.

1. Canada (7-0-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 2
MVP: Connor Bedard

Yeah, so, uh, this was a good Canadian team, eh? Ben Gaudreau was great in net for a guy who hasn't played a game all year, and their defense corps were perfectly competent and minimizing chances against, allowing just 12 goals in 7 games, but this was a team dominated by it's offense. Their execution was beautiful, almost every minute they had the puck on the ice. Crisp, tactical deconstruction of sloppy opponents with selfless playmaking that just kept filling nets with pucks. They scored 51 times, and had Shane Wright played in every game, he might've challenged Matvei Michkov's goal scoring lead even more than he did. The guy just has a lightning quick release and can score from almost anywhere. I'm really curious to see how his season with Kingston goes next year.

This is a team that scored 20 goals against the Swedes across two games. They didn't seem to struggle in their gold medal victory, and they constantly kept overwhelming opponents, steamrolling through this year's tournament. I didn't think absolutely everyone on the roster was as dominant as the team as a whole, especially the players with limited playing time this year which is to be expected, but names like Othmann, Zellweger and Pinelli all showed well behind the best of the best on the ice. Mason McTavish and Logan Stankoven definitely showed up, and both should be gone in the first round. One will be because of his tenacity, intensity on the puck, dual threat offense, and projectability, and the other is all of the above, but 5'8", so I expect him to go off the board on day two to some smart team. Brandt Clarke had the great performance I was looking for, and while his performance in the gold medal game wasn't particularly spectacular in my tracking, his control of the game, passing skill, and deception with offensive zone production all showed why he's a top player in this year's draft. I didn't see enough to bump him into my top five, but he is not far off. In fact, he's at 6, and likely locked in around there until July.

And so, we get to Connor Bedard. For anyone not in the loop in the WHL, um, this was a coming out party to say the least. He's a brilliant player who constantly just knows what needs to be done to drive results, and gets away with a ton. He can skate, he can finish, he can make a play, he's selfless when he needs to, he brilliantly draws in defensive pressure, only to defuse it creatively. There's so much to love about Bedard's game that shows exceptionally brightly for the 2023 Draft. I don't imagine he'll be back, as he's dragging Regina into competitiveness, and likely will continue to do so until he's drafted in 2023.

Closing Thoughts

What a heck of a tournament that was, eh? Some absolutely wild Yeehaw Hockey throughout Outside of my misjudgement of the United States going in, things generally lined up as I expected. The Belarusian team came to play, and played relatively well. A bunch of teams get big time shrugs from me, but the Russians, Canadians, Finns, and Swedes as the tournament went on were all exciting with excellent individual performances scattered throughout. The 2022 and 2023 eligibles were the real standouts, and I'm so, so excited to track those classes.

Congratulations to the Canadians for the gold medal win, congratulations to the Russians for a hard fought, competitive performance with a bright future ahead of them, and congratulations to the Swedes for hitting rock bottom and salvaging a medal out of that experience. I always love seeing teams pick themselves up and get back to their proper form, and they deserve some snaps for that. To close, I feel like it's prudent to hand out awards of my own, so here goes, and we'll finish with my All-Star Team. It felt great to have this tournament back, and I'm already looking forward to both the World Championship in Latvia, the Women's World Championship this summer, and the hopeful return of the Women's U18 tournament in 2022! Thanks to the organizers and media who made it all possible, in case you're reading this, and I already can't wait for next year's event.

MVP: Connor Bedard
Most Improved Player: Simon Edvinsson
Best Non-Draft Eligible: Connor Bedard
Best Surprise: Prokhor Poltapov
Best Forward: Connor Bedard
Best Defender: Brandt Clarke
Best Goalie: Sergei Ivanov

All-Star Team
Fyodor Svechkov (F) / Connor Bedard (C) / Matvei Michkov (RW)
Aleksi Heimosalmi (D) / Brandt Clarke (D)
Sergei Ivanov (G)

The 2021 IIHF Under-18 World Championship Preview

4/24/2021

Before we get started, I hope you and your respective families and friends are well. Life is tough for far too many in far too many ways these days. Better days are ahead, but until then, we're all in this together and I hope you're all safe and well.

If you'd like to skip this entire writeup and just look at the data sheet I put together, check it out at this link!

We're here! The IIHF U18 tournament, one of the most underrated that they put on, has finally returned after the 2020 tournament was unfortunately canceled. This year's tournament is an interesting mix of players flying under the radar and high profile names that haven't had much public visibility and I hope you're all as excited as I am to see what happens. There are many strong rosters, and almost across the board, goaltending may be a bit of a weak point for multiple teams, so I'm looking forward to a bit of firewagon hockey, especially considering the volume of players who have extremely small sample sizes.

Before breaking down the teams specifically, I'd also like to note that while the data available paints what I'd consider a relatively solid gauge of the talent on display on a team-by-team basis, a number of teams have players with an extremely limited to nonexistent sample. Teams like Sweden also have a number of players with extremely limited minutes in professional league just to keep them playing through the junior league shutdown, for example. In this piece, the order of the team's is a rough idea of where I think they could finish this season.

NHLeS represents an age, position and league adjusted evaluation of the value of their production, with 20+ being typical first round pick-level production. Inv% is simply the player's points per game divided by team goals per game to get a rough idea of how vital the player's output is relative to their team.

10. Germany - 7.14 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Bennett Rossmy (F)

As much as I love the recent batch of Germans in the NHL draft, the level of talent concentrated between names like Stutzle, Peterka and Reichel doesn't seem to be sustainable. Basically across the board, I can't pick out gamebreaking talents that might be able to keep this team from being under threat of relegation.
I'm curious about 2022 eligible Julian Lutz, playing in a men's pro league with Peterka's youth program in Salzburg, where Peterka was a junior level player at the same age. I can't say I've seen a ton of Lutz, but the track record is positive.
Bennet Roßmy is a big, lanky shooter who I've really enjoyed watching in spurts this year in the German 2nd division. There's pace, and scoring ability to him and I imagine he'll be a focal point for this team to stay alive.
Sebastian Cimmerman is another prototypical quick skilled winger that I've liked in brief Red Bull games I've caught. He's got a good ability to open up the offensive zone with east-west skill and mobility, so I'll keep an eye out for what he can pull off.
It could be a tough year for the German team, and they will need to rely on Nikita Quapp, Red Bull's AlpsHL goaltender who has had good results if they want to work their way up the table in my view. They have the benefit of many players coming from the same program in Salzburg, but a team headlined by premier talent like Stutzle, Reichel and Peterka, this is unlikely to be.

9. Latvia - 4.59 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Gustavs Ozolins (D)

I'll admit that I have a personal soft spot for Latvia, and that may just be what's putting them ahead of Germany here. I always like to check in on what's going on over there, and there are sometimes some bright spots to catch on both their MHL team HK Riga, and the premier youth program in the Latvian pro league HS Riga.
It's likely they'll battle it out with Germany to stay in the tournament, but many players here come from the same program and have played together against professional competition all year back home, which to me, is an advantage. Their goaltenders face a ton of pucks, they lose a lot, but in my view, that's plenty of time to learn from experience.
Gustavs Ozolins is a guy who I've really enjoyed watching this year, and he showed plenty of improvement in his skill, confidence, and offensive output, landing on my watchlist as of late April.
Martins Lavins and Bogdans Hodass are players I've picked up on here and there as well and could be interesting pieces, and while I can't say much about Darels Dukurs, his production is promising in the Swiss junior league, and all this team needs to do is win a game here and there and they may be able to return next year.

8. Belarus - 4.87 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Kuzmin (D)

Belarus is one of the more underrated countries with regards to their youth development and quality of that youth. Names like Maxim Sushko, Yegor Sharangovich, Vladislav Kolyachonok, and Yevgeni Oksentyuk have all been exciting talents coming through the NHL Draft recently with some already making waves in the NHL.
Alexander Suvorov is a notable player that would've been a standout in 2020, but is still eligible for this year's draft, and I've seen very interesting things out of him in the Belrussian pro league. Just noting him because he's probably a player that would've been a major part of this team, as he's been chipping in with the Belarussian men's team here and there during this season.
Danila Klimovich played largely at the 3rd division level this year, but I've seen him here and there when watching Kuzmin. He's a skilled winger with a quick release that can keep opponents guessing and step into dangerous areas of the ice, recently finding his way onto my watchlist.
On the note of the Belarussian pro league, the only full time player from that league is the name I'll have my eyes on: Dmitri Kuzmin. This kid is a ton of fun. He's skilled, creative, surprisingly effective on defensive rushes, and while inconsistent in the offensive direction, dropping him back down to junior competition could be a ton of fun. I saw him score a lacrosse goal this year... as a defenseman. He's on my shortlist as a late round swing, but ranked much, much higher on my board.
I can't say I've seen a tremendous amount of the U18 and U17 teams that play in the Belarussian 2nd and 3rd division pro leagues, but I still believe these teams that play together all year have an advantage, and also have an advantage by playing against veteran professional competition. The talent level may not be enormous, but if Ivan Zhigalov steals a few goals here and there, and Kuzmin's offensive creativity drives a bit of offense, this team could surprise a few of us.
They're also (just barely) the youngest team in the tournament, so that's neat.

7. Switzerland - 8.91 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler (D)

Ah, the Swiss. If there's a program that seems to be losing a bit of steam in recent years internationally, I've felt that Switzerland is the closest thing to that. I think they'll have a solid tournament and avoid relegation, but it'd be pretty surprising to see this team make a ton of waves in the medal round.
Joel Henry, Attilio Biasca, and Brian Zanetti are all names I've had looks at this year, as well as leading scorer Liekit Reichle, and the top trio of Reichle, Henry and Truog being teammates on the Zurich junior program could be solid drivers of play, but I find their games not extremely projectable to higher levels. Reichle does bring a solid finishing ability with good skill to pull pucks and change angles, and can jump on loose pucks with a quick release to catch a goaltender sleeping, but we'll see if it'll be enough.
Dario Sidler, my player to watch, was suggested to me as a bit of a joke because he's very tiny, but checking him out briefly, I liked him enough to give him a few games of data, and yes, he's very tiny, but his work rate, all-around skating ability, and puck management at his best is a ton of fun. He's flirted with time in the NLA with Zug's men's team and while his defensive gap management and physical strength are very not good, I imagine he'll play an extremely important role driving offense for the Swiss junior team, and I'm curious to see what playing in this tournament will do for his game.
There are some D-1 players like Noah Greuter and Lian Bichsel may make waves as well, but my expectation for this team is somewhat low with regards to medal threat.

6. Czech Republic - 7.68 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Jiri Tichacek (D)

Like I said, samples are small, and many of these players have played limited minutes in good professional leagues in the Czech Republic, and this has deflated their NHLeS metrics significantly. This team is no slouch, and could be a surprise.
Their backend noted by Jiricek, Svozil, Tichacek, Hamara, and Machu in the least are all legitimate to high end NHL prospects, and if Tomas Suchanek can be solid in net, this team could surprise.
Jiri Tichacek against junior competition could be fun quarterbacking their power play with Jiricek, and my thoughts on Tichacek are well documented. He's mobile, skilled, excellent managing defensive gaps and stick checking opponents, and has offensive upside that rarely got to come out in the Chance Liga.
In researching this piece, Simon Marha stood out to me. He's a big, rangy winger who gets himself and pucks to the net well. He landed on my watchlist after having a look, and hopefully he's a focal point of the Czech offense to support their strong defense.
David Jiricek is a bad, bad young person and we're all going to be well aware of that after this tournament, I think.
Martin Rysavy, Jakub Brabanec, and other names here and there will be relied upon to produce points, but I think this is a team that can squeeze out a win against teams where they're undervalued through legitimately strong defending.

5. Finland - 12.82 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Ville Koivunen (W)

Finland is always a perplexing international team in my experience. I can't help but give them credit for their high intensity, admirably strong game that extracts plenty of output from their players.
Samu Salminen is arguably the player that mismatches between their production and my viewings of him. He's big, got some good skill, excellent scoring instincts, but pace, skating and defensive work rate are all issues I've spotted every time I've seen him. He could have a productive tournament here, but he isn't a player I'm clamoring to add to my program. I'm happy to be proven wrong, as he's scoring all these points somehow.
Brad Lambert should be one of the first names off the board in 2022, and Joakim Kemell is another name in the same program who has impressed me significantly. These two being key role players wouldn't surprise me in this tournament.
Their defense is marked by a blend of mobility and puck management. Aleksi Heimosalmi, Jimi Suomi, Topias Vilen, and Viljami Juusola have all impressed me with their skating ability, with Heimosalmi's lateral mobility and skill, Suomi and Juusola's four way speed and quickness, and Topias Vilen's aggressive escape gear on the offensive side of the puck.
Kalle Ervasti has been a guy who is up and down in my experience, but when he's on, he's an impressive modern defender with range, skill, intelligence and the ability to take care of the puck with the odd flash of offensive creativity. I'll have my eye on him on a bigger stage to say the least.
Ville Koivunen has been a more projectable and impressive hockey player than teammate Samu Tuomaala. Tuomaala may have higher pace to his game and more speed, but he's frustrating with the puck in a variety of ways, and while I believe he'll have a good tournament here, I also believe that Koivunen could impress folks and end up with more production than we thought through his intelligence, care for the puck, and increasing offensive danger seen over the course of the season.
Oliver Kapanen isn't his cousin Kasperi, but he's certainly a smart, effective offensive player who knows where to be and what to do whenever I've seen him play. The tracked data I have on him is solid all around, and as he could be a good role player for the Finns this year.
My expectations for Kalle Väisänen are relatively low, but that's only because I want him to come in and surprised all of us. He's big, but skilled, intense, and I've seen him casually obliterate junior competition in Finland. He may be a bit of a roleplayer, but I'm curious to see his mobility, skill, and physical imposition on display here. There aren't a ton of players at this tournament quite like him, but I'm interested. Another player where the tracked data is quite impressive in a number of areas.

4. Sweden - 11.45 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Elias Salomonsson (D)

The Swedes are going to be an interesting team to watch. There's a tremendous amount of firepower here with players who I believe are highly underrated going into the 2021 Draft.
I'm expecting huge things from Fabian Lysell, Isak Rosen, Simon Robertsson, and a legitimately strong 2022 class of names like Noah Östlund, Simon Forsmark, Mattias Hävelid, and Ludwig Persson to say the least.
The supporting class of 2021's is also absolutely rock solid. I'm a big fan of Arvid Eljas, and if William Strömgren comes to play, this team could have multiple dangerous lines to go toe to toe with the best of them.
The weakness is in net. No Jesper Wallstedt isn't ideal as he isn't eligible, and the names they've brought, while okay, aren't what I'd consider potential game stealers as some other teams may have.
I know I mentioned David Jiricek as a guy who could have a coming out party for the 2022 Draft, but Elias Salomonsson is legit, scary good, and in my opinion a legitimate threat to go very early next year. A 30%+ INV% as one of the youngest 2022 eligibles in the J20 Nationell is hilarious, and he earned it through an extremely strong two-way game with excellent skill and confidence with the puck on his stick. A glitter player almost every time watching his junior team this year, I'm curious to see what he does in this tournament.

3. Russia - 8.84 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dmitri Katelevsky (F)

I'm hoping the Russians come away a bit more impressive than they did in the World Juniors. Their 2022 and 2023 eligibles are arguably going to be headliners for this team.
Matvei Michkov is simply a ridiculous goal scorer with tremendous skill and pace, Ivan Miroshnichenko has been incredibly impressive in similar ways when I've caught Omsk this season, and Danila Yurov spent extended periods in the KHL without looking too out of place.
I would've liked to see Loko defenseman Kirill Kudryavtsev make an appearance, but don't sleep on guys big, defense first guys like Novikov and Makarov, specifically the latter. Makarov's skill, mobility and fluidity are notable for his age, and in the limited pro experience he's had, he's been solid.
Vsevolod Gaidamak is one of the most perplexing players I've tracked this year. Spectacular ability to drive offensive transitions, get to the net and drive dangerous chances, but he just has no finishing ability to speak of. If he discovers some shooting skill, I'd have much more time for him on my board as he's a responsible two-way centre with good pace and skill that could be a good role player here.
Kirill Gersimyuk is my guy in net. He's big, has been absolutely demolished with almost 40 shots a night in the MHL with a solid series of VHL appearances, and 2022 eligible Sergei Ivanov is not far behind. I imagine Valeri Brinkman, being with the SKA-1946 team rather than Variyagi, will get the net, but I'm crossing my fingers that Gerasimyuk comes in and steals the show. He's stolen his fair share of games this year to say the least.
My player to watch could be Matvei Michkov, or Ivan Miroshnichenko, but that's too easy. Those guys are fantastic players who should be a ton of fun, but Dmitri Katelevsky is one that I want to see against junior competition to see how his game fares below the VHL level. His data I've tracked fluctuates greatly, but he's got a ton of off-puck pace, lots of energy, and covers ice very well. I'm more curious to see what he does more than anything, but I've got eyes on him.
The Russians have an advantage in net that I don't believe Sweden or Finland have, so to me, they're a greater medal threat, especially with potentially ridiculous firepower available up front.

2. Canada - 21.46 AvgNHLeS (kinda.)
Eyes On: Logan Stankoven (F)

I'm trying to set aside my Canadian bias here, and there is a strong chance that this team may struggle, considering five names haven't played a game this season, and Chase Stillman only played a limited sample in Denmark. They should still be a favourite on raw talent alone, but other teams have had a ton of time to get into playing mode, especially the United States.
With Benjamin Gaudreau leading the way in net with two strong backup options, and the same can't be said for the US team, Canada may still pull off a championship through their overwhelming talent.
I'm extremely curious to see Brett Harrison play, as his games in Finland showed raw skill and pace that I didn't see a ton of in 2019-20. Same goes for Mason McTavish, but ramped up. His improvement in Switzerland this year is undeniable, and he could easily boost his draft stock.
Shane Wright and Connor Bedard should be great, but we all know that. Bedard's NHLeS of 56.6 through 15 WHL games is undeniably ridiculous and unparalleled.
Brandt Clarke should pile up points. His ability to work the offensive zone is excellent, so just by virtue of being a PP1 quarterback, he'll get a chance to show off. He's no slouch defensively, but I'll be looking for a more reliable puck mover outside the OZ as that seemed to be a bit of an issue in every Slovakian pro game I tracked.
Of the guys that haven't played, nor named Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton is probably the name I want to keep an eye on the most. I came away liking teammate Avery Hayes in my viewings of Hamilton last year, but Winterton's intelligence and puck management are areas that I hope come out.
This team is loaded with firepower and a solid defensive foundation, and that may be enough to pull it off, but other teams with much more experience this year, and much more time playing together may be a hurdle. The talent is there though almost from top to bottom. This is a country that hasn't won this tournament since 2013, so forgive me for a lack of homerism.

1. United States (13.46 AvgNHLeS)
Eyes On: Dylan Duke (C/RW)

This team won 6 of 10 tournaments through the 2010s, and they may be getting off on the right foot again in 2021. This is a team that relies on outscoring opponents with tremendous offensive output all season long led by both 2021 and 2022 eligibles. It appears that their best finisher Chaz Lucius will be absent from the tournament, but I don't think the team will struggle to fill his large gap. Names like Dylan Duke, Ryan St. Louis, Red Savage, and Liam Gilmartin have flown under the radar all season long, and the 22's Jack Hughes, Isaac Howard, Logan Cooley, and Rutger McGroarty are all highly impressive talents to look forward to.
Their lone 2023 eligible Charlie Stramel is not Connor Bedard, but he's no joke. He's big, wiry, rangy, but skilled and looked excellent at the Biosteel All-American Game. This may not be a huge tournament for him, but it could be a sign of bright things to come for him.
Sasha Pastujov is going to get pushed and tested in this year's tournament. I've felt that Dylan Duke's relentless energy, offensive no-nonsense creativity and defensive intensity makes him a more interesting NHL project than Pastujov's highly volume-heavy offense and reception-based offensive transition game, but his adaptive skill under pressure and creativity with the puck is undeniable. He has the advantage of youth, but I'm curious to see how his game changes in this tournament if at all.
I'm legitimately sad to not be able to see what Jake Martin would be able to do in this year's draft as I do believe there's a lot of defensive ability and responsibility that he managed well, and without it, the team may be more susceptible to leaking scoring chances moreso than they already are.
If they don't get at least competent goaltending, they may struggle to be as dominant as their offense has shown so far this season, and a poor goaltending performance in the wrong game could sink their tournament, but they have more than enough talent to score their way out of problems throughout their lineup.

More than anything, I'm just happy to see international hockey again. The World Juniors this year were exciting, and the U18s are always equally entertaining in my experience. It's tremendously disappointing to see the Nova Scotia government pull the rug out from under the Women's World Championship, but things are... not great here in Canada, and all I can do is hope that they can reschedule, and bring us the exceptional women's tournament we've been waiting for. The pandemic has certainly gotten me more tied into the women's game and I'm sure I'm not the only one, so I hope the iron is struck, because it's hot. The Women's U18 should also get some more attention, as a sidenote. I'm very much looking forward to the return of those tournaments.

My medal predictions are relatively straightforward. The States seem like the team to beat all things considered, and I think they'll do it over the Canadians while the Russians and Swedes battle it out for the bronze with the Russian goaltending giving them a bit of an advantage. I think the States have an advantage, so long as they can outscore their opponents. They play yeehaw hockey, but they do so for a reason. They're just really good at scoring goals. Canada may be the most talented team, but I always have questions and they historically have looked disjointed and unreliable in this tournament. If their best players dominate, it won't matter much, though.

The Swedes and Finns are bringing good rosters, and if Sweden gets some heroism in net, their firepower could get them into the gold medal game. With the fun individuals peppered around the tournament on other teams, I'm excited to see what comes of it. Will it color my rankings? Maybe a little bit with regards to names on my watchlist and players I'm more bullish on than other outlets, but to me, this tournament is more about the fun factor and seeing what the future of hockey is capable of. In this year's draft, the 2022 and 2023 eligibles all could steal the show, but don't lose sight of the underrated 2021 eligibles that might add to their resumes.

All the best, stay safe, wear a mask, we got this. Let's have some fun watching this!

- Will

Scouching's Midseason 2021 NHL Draft Rankings

2/15/2021

I'll start this post by wishing you all a very Happy New Year, and I hope you and yours are well. Things are still very strange, but hopefully before too long, we're all able to start the road back to some kind of normalcy. That goes for both the hockey world and in our respective personal lives.

To say this 2021 draft class comes off as equal or an improvement on the classes of 2019 or 2020 might be a bit unlikely, but I'm not counting myself among the people who think this is a historically poor group of draft eligibles. The groups in the first two tiers should be solid core members of an NHL team, with the third and fourth being reliable complimentary pieces, or nice swings to take with high end individual traits. I'm personally very interested in the fifth tier and where they end up, as many players in that range are, in my opinion, quite undervalued and may be players you could draft late and end up with a contributing piece to a roster.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project. As of time of writing (Feb 16, 2021), I've tracked 268 performances across 99 players from all over the planet, which is already well on the way to surpassing my database for the 2020 Draft. That's largely thanks to your support and motivation to continue the work, so I hope that what I provide in return is valuable. All of this provides the backbone to how I construct my list, while also considering what I'm seeing with my eyeballs saved as 6 gigabytes of MP4s.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

With that all taken care of, here's the list!

Tier 1 - I Just Like 'em a Bit More...

Lots of changes here since November. Luke Hughes is still locked in at the top end, but what I've tracked of Beniers and his teammates, plus his exceptional World Junior performance all factor into him being the #1 player on my list. Could I consider Lysell or Eklund at 1? Potentially by the end of the year, but I feel as though the potential with the top 3 names could be more impactful in all areas of the game in the NHL.
Why Beniers at 1? He's a positive outlier in my tracking with regards to his transition game, his two-way energy is exceptional, and his ability to create shot attempts for his linemates is completely unparalleled. Of 68.3 SAT/60 Michigan has taken with Beniers on the ice, 34.6 of them have come off Beniers, or through a Beniers pass. Just Xavier Bourgault and Matthew Coronato are responsible for a comparable percentage of their team's overall offense, and neither have as projectable a transition game offensively in my opinion. Beniers also is completing dangerous passes at double the rate those other two are.
Jesper Wallstedt is just a robot. I don't know a ton about goaltending specifically, but he seems so dialed in constantly in almost any situation. Square to the puck, not wasting motion with his legs, staying calm in the net, there's a lot that really stands out to me. No draft eligible goaltender has ever played more than 10 games in an SHL season and put up a .900 save percentage. The last goaltender of any kind to play that amount of games at that level was in 1999. Wallstedt is a net positive stopping pucks relative to his workload, and he has a strong documented track record of stopping pucks at multiple levels. If he's a franchise goaltender, he could be the most valuable player at the top end of this draft, and he certainly deserves consideration in this range.
I've been asked already about Lysell > Eklund, and yes, when you look at production, it should be the other way around, but I see Eklund playing top minutes with Alexander Holtz and Jacob Josefson, some high end SHL talents, and Lysell playing about half the 5v5 minutes Eklund is playing in a brand new program after a midseason transition. I lean towards favouring Lysell's pace, underrated two way game, and ability to attack the net with the puck over Eklund's intelligent, agile approach. Eklund thrives off of evasion off the boards with the puck, perimeter playmaking, and strong off-puck offensive instincts, and is certainly not a huge step down, but Lysell is one of a very small number of players who excites me almost every time he steps on the ice at every level I've seen him this season.

Tier 2 - A.K.A. Tier 1B

My early views of Owen Power were troubling to say the least, but I'll admit that he's improved in my latest game of tracking and in recent weeks. If he gets a head of steam going with the puck on his stick, he's borderline unstoppable. His passing game, especially in the offensive zone can be exceptional. The trouble with him largely surrounds his lack of side to side mobility away from the puck to reliably close out transitions and box out opponents. He's allowing far too many pucks inside to the middle of the ice, and under pressure, his ability to settle pucks and get them to safety can completely collapse. Putting him at #1 in my view is a huge, huge risk where you're hoping he can adjust to the NHL game when he seems to still have trouble shutting play down defensively and defusing offensive pressure at the NCAA level. Top ten pick that could be a middle pair puck rusher with nice offensive tools? I could see it. I'm just not surprised he and Johnson's DefCat% are so poor.
Speaking of Kent Johnson, he's arguably the most gifworthy player in this draft, but his pace and decisionmaking tendencies are troublesome. He tries to go one on one more often than you'd like, and can ignore clear passing options leading to far more work for himself than is necessary. His work rate away from the puck is underrated and he's capable of turning play around, but he's a pretty big boom or bust player in my view. Another year or two at college would be advisable to simplify his processing of the game at high pace, improving his strength, while retaining the remarkable skill he's gifted with.
Aaty Raty has been flirting with significant improvements in his game. I tracked a U20 level game of his and it was unfair to the opponent. Just an incredible performance, with his return to the Liiga showing clear signs of improvement. His intelligence, agility, skill, transition game and ability to get shots off from inside dangerous areas are all there, if inconsistent at times. He's playing more of a physical brand recently, but he still retains strong fundamentals that could pay significant dividends if things break right.
Yes, that's Simon Robertsson in there. I've absolutely loved what I've seen of him over the year. Early in the year I saw a highly offensive leaning, defensively negligible skilled winger with tremendous agility and a remarkable shot, but over time, he's improved on his ability to cover ice away from the puck, and has been getting his chances at the SHL level without looking out of place. His defensive game has gotten more reliable, but he's not likely going to be a tremendous two-way force. He's exciting, his data at the J20 level was dominant, and I think there's huge potential for an offensive scoring winger here that puts him in this group.
Yes, Robertsson is above Simon Edvinsson here. Edvinsson's game has certainly settled down as the year goes on, and in my tracking, he seems to have found a sweet spot in the Allsvenskan. He's a player who can be a ton of fun to watch until he isn't. His puck management needed to simplify far more often, and that seems to be happening, but he's unafraid to attack the neutral zone with skill and power through his skating. His DSAT% through all this is still 62.2%, and his ability to shut down defensive transitions is highly underrated. Risky, absolutely. Stash him in Sweden for a few years and continue to work on his fundamentals, and there could be a really interesting two-way defenseman.
I honestly don't have a ton to say about Brandt Clarke. He's improved game by game, with underrated defensive results, but I question his pace outside the defensive zone, his passing vision, and projectability to play the style he loves to play, but I will not count him out at all.

Tier 3 - The Rock Solids

All of these names are really reliable names that I think could turn into useful auxiliary pieces.
Names like Sillinger, Rosen, and Guenther show great offensive potential, Sillinger and Rosen especially for their shooting potential. Guenther is a tough one to place considering how much he's playing, but what I saw in the AJHL didn't quite meet my expectations, but I'll be on him quick once he starts playing again.
Oskar Olausson has been playing in the SHL for a while, and I'm not 100% sure there's a true offensive weapon down the road, but he's been using his size effectively, and he's an efficient player per puck touch. He finds open ice at high speed in offensive transitions, and has skill to evade defenders in open ice. A two-way winger to place in your middle six seems perfectly reasonable in this range, and Olausson feels like a safe bet to get to that point.
I just really liked Logan Stankoven last season and really wish he were playing. If he's available in the 2nd round like some rankings seem to indicate, I'd take a rambunctious little guy who can shoot.
Fyodor Svechkov might be one of the most underrated players in the draft. His data shows all the telltale signs of a really good player on a really bad team. His DSAT% of 38% is admittedly bad. His Pass% of 61.3% is also bad. Lada generates just 9.8 dangerous shot attempts/60 with Svechkov on the ice at 5v5. All of this is bad, but, Svechkov is #12 in my tracking in total offensive transitions, and #6 in controlled offensive transitions. His OCZT% of 75% at those workloads puts him tied for 2nd with Joshua Roy behind Matthew Coronato. With the skating and pace he brings at the Russian 2nd division pro level, I feel as though that's more proejctable than the highly positional, relatively low pace transition game that Coronato and Roy bring. Svechkov is a big-time mystery box, but he has a skill under pressure that I haven't seen in many this year. I think there's a lot to like, especially if he finds his way onto a better Russian program. As a centre, his transition game is excellent at the VHL level on a team as lacklustre as Lada Togliatti, so with time, I'm hopeful.

Tier 4 - Big Time Maybes

I think most of these players could be complimentary pieces focused primarily on offense, but I like McTavish's intensity which together with his shooting talent puts him at the top.
Zach L'Heureux has fallen off a bit. He doesn't think through his play as much as I'd like, he can disappear in his own end, and the potential he shows doesn't come out as much as it could. I got similar feelings as I did with Dawson Mercer, but maybe a step below in terms of pure upside. He could be higher by the end of the year, but I've wanted more out of him more often than he's impressed me.
If Nikita Chibrikov brought more of his best every shift, he'd be much higher. He's insanely skilled and creative, but his defensive game is almost nonexistent to the point of being a detriment. There's a long way to go, but patience could pay off.
Carson Lambos and Daniil Chayka just strike me as perfectly fine options to fill out your defense group with. You won't have to worry a ton about either, but their ability to drive play with the puck is hit or miss. Lambos in the Liiga shows the importance of playing at high pace as he felt a bit overwhelmed with the intensity level, and seemed to be a bit unsettled. All of this is forgivable, but these two defenders to me are likely to be reliable, if not exciting at 5v5.
Speaking of exciting, Scott Morrow is in here. Tony Ferrari's interview with him was highly enlightening and encouraging, and only made me like the guy more. His skating, skill, and all-around offensive game at the prep level is absolutely outstanding. His data is laughably ridiculous. 81% DSAT%, 81% passing on 103 attempts per 60 5v5 minutes, an 88.7% OCZT%, 19.4% DCZT%, and has a staggering 94.7% success rate entering the offensive zone with control. If there was a single player outside the top tiers that could become a truly great defenseman, he's the one I'd put money on and expect a good payout. I'm hopeful he plays a bit in the USHL, but I'm willing to bet on his potential. His defensive game can be a bit patchy, getting beat in low pace situations where you wish he'd put in a few extra percent, but once that puck hits his stick, if he's focused, he's ridiculous. A couple seasons with North Dakota working through some potentially bad habits with the puck, and a bit of a lack of defensive intensity at times, and this guy could be one of the more exciting defenders in a team's pipeline.
I'm already ready for the Samoskevich > Coronato discussion. Samoskevich's production and data is not on Coronato's level, but Coronato plays with much older USHL linemates, is a 2002, and doesn't have the speed or skill that Samoskevich can display. I don't mind either player, but I feel there's more runway with what Samoskevich can do now, but Coronato could be a nice complimentary offensive piece with solid power play passing vision.

Tier 5 - The Meat of the Draft

This is arguably the most interesting group of players in the entire draft to me. Full of fun, big swings, and potentially some great defensive players that I'm sticking my neck out on.
Ayrton Martino is almost all offense, but he's remarkably explosive, skilled, and puts opponents on their heels constantly. He's skilled, has legitimate dual-threat offense, and his tracked data so far is absolutely outstanding. If he can bring his work rate up away from the puck and avoid cheating in the defensive zone chasing offense, there could be a special player here. On the other hand, he's prone to earning a few breakaways in every game I've seen and he could be a player where you take the pros with the cons as he scores in bunches.
I'm still on the Jiri Tichacek train. His recent performances at the junior level have been impressive, and he's a defenseman where I'm betting on his mobility and skill long term. He's a project, and needs to refine his puck play to be quicker, more reliable and consistent, but when he's dialed in, he's a tremendous undersized defenseman. He can close gaps defensively well with very good results, and if he gets stronger on his feet, it could translate well to the NHL game leading with his stick, positioning and covering ice with his mobility before relying on physical play. I'm a big believer in the fundamental tools on Tichacek.
Brent Johnson is a guy who I'll go to bat for after being turned onto him just a few weeks ago. His game has evolved and adapted to the USHL level over the year and he's playing tremendous amounts of ice time for the Stampede. He's remarkably skilled and evasive on his feet, he's one of the better players at separating pucks from opponents that I've tracked, and when he connects on strong breakout passes, it gets hockey nerds like me out of my seat. It's inconsistent and he can panic under pressure, but that seems to be going away as he gets more experienced. If he continues to improve in games 4-7 with the results he's been putting up with regards to goal impacts, he could easily be a name I look at in the 1st round.
For Jake Martin, see Brent Johnson. I like Martin's puck separation ability, and his ability to use mobility to stick to forecheckers in the neutral zone, but Johnson's skill and puck management seems to have a higher ceiling. Martin could very easily be a modern defensive defenseman who you don't notice often for the right reasons. He should be available much later than where I have him listed, but I've been impressed with him all season long, especially relative to other NTDP defenseman like Hreschuk, Schmidt, and Behrens.
I need to get back on tracking Franceso Pinelli, but I've been underwhelmed with his play in the Slovenian league. That is not a good hockey league, and while his data was dominant, he wasn't playing with any kind of speed or pace that felt anything close to high end. Other players who haven't played all season have looked better in their early games, but again I need to go back and check in again.
I've got names like Coronato, Pastujov, and Pinelli in here for all similar reasons. I just don't know how their games translate as they are to the next level. Pastujov is skilled with nice diverse offensive tools, and both he and Coronato drive great offensive transition results, but once they're faced with pressure consistently, especially having tracked Pastujov against a mediocre NCAA program, there are questions. These guys could very easily be nice efficient pieces that can work with faster, more exciting linemates, but I'm not clamoring for them where I've seen them ranked by a few others.
Lorenzo Canonica didn't blow me away in the World Juniors, but his play in Shawinigan has been rock solid, with a great release on his shot, and solid pace and skill to evade defenders. He may end up down in Tier 6, but I see flashes of high skill at high pace out of him that I like.
If I'm being honest, I've liked Ville Koivunen over Samu Tuomaala, but Tuomaala's fundamental talents feel like a higher level relative to Koivunen. Koivunen brings intelligence and efficiency, but Tuomaala has pace and skill that you really wish he'd be more aggressive with.

Tier 6 - Big Bois and Big Swings

There's a lot of small players who are big swings in here. Namely, Jeremy Wilmer, Marcus Almquist, Lukas Gustafsson and Sean Behrens. Outside of that, a lot of players that have been impressive in specific areas, or low upside guys who might be useful pieces down the road.
Gustafsson is barely playing on a powerful Chicago Steel team, but his production has been good in exclusively 5v5 minutes. His skating and passing ability in conjunction is at a high level, able to generate speed quickly and fire hard passes all over the ice. He's gotten barely any fanfare this year, and if you can land him as a late round swing, I'd throw his name out there. A defender playing well under 10 5v5 minutes a night scoring at a 25 point pace over a full USHL season would an interesting case and relative to a teammate in this range Ryan Ufko, I've liked Gustafsson's pass execution, skill, and ability to generate speed a bit more, to be perfectly honest.
Ufko is an odd one. He has a heck of a shot from the point, but it doesn't come out super often as I've found he's locked in neutral zone play that isn't particularly exceptional. He's a smaller defender who plays small, doesn't have a ton of pace to his decisions or passing ability, and an overall low involvement in transitions going both directions with mediocre results going both directions.
Elias Stenman is underrated, especially if you can snag him as a swing in the later rounds. He's intelligent away from the puck and makes a living just making little plays to drive play in the right direction. I'm circling back on him but he seems to have translated to the men's level well considering he's on one of the worst teams in the HockeyEttan. His U20 data is also outstanding, but that's over just a 12 game sample.
David Gucciardi is one that I've come across due to his production and having been involved in a trade for Scott Morrow's rights a while back. He's a strong defender with a powerful stride and able to cover ice effectively, but the real fun is his shooting ability combined with the skill he has with the puck. His ability to corral odd pass attempts and turn them into something positive is notable, and his DCZT% of 22.2% is among the lowest I've tracked. His passing is literally very hit or miss, completing just 56.8% of his attempts, but his head often seems to be in the right place. Both Youngstown and Waterloo's forwards have issues driving play with speed and aggression, and many outlet passes are intercepted and shut down by opponents, but when Gucciardi gets going, he can really get going. Another one where if he's a late round swing, you could do much worse.

Tier 7 - Whipping Cupcakes

These are just a bunch of interesting names that aren't that much of a step up on my 8th tier. I really like what I've seen out of the young players here like Blake, Orr, Wong, Brown and Savage. Stjernborg, Poltapov, Katelevsky, and Vilen play relatively simple games that could translate if their fundamentals improve over time.
The Defensive Dmitri's are curious to me. Kuzmin and Kostenko are both very skilled, mobile, but not perfect. Kuzmin attempted a lacrosse goal at one point this year, and his mobility is almost worth betting on alone. His OCZT% and DCZT% split of 62.2% and 28.1% are notable for a men's league player, even if he's playing in Belarus. He's also maintaining control on 50% of his offensive zone entries, which for a defenseman is quite remarkable. Kostenko is a hard one to read for the same reasons Fyodor Svechkov is, but I've been a fan of his for a while and could be swayed to take him in the 2nd round if there was enough support for the idea.
I'm still waiting for Vlad Lukashevich to take the steps I thought he would, and he just hasn't shown a ton that wows you outside of being a good MHL defenseman with some nice skill, but it isn't there enough, and he doesn't push play nearly as often as you'd like for a defenseman with as much fun potential as him.
Joona Korhonen is a fun one I've just started tracking. He could easily end up in Tier 6 for his skill and fun factor, but Ilves' junior team was just awful with him on the ice in both games I've tracked, and his off-puck game seems to need plenty of work. He's fun, but I need to see more to be sure of what's there.
Kalle Ervasti is another interesting low upside defensive player. He covers ice well, moves pucks efficiently, and if he can start stitching together strong sequences turning play around, he could be an interesting player to pick up late.
Ethan Cardwell should've been drafted. If it were up to me, he would've been, and he's absolutely dismantling the Swedish 3rd division this year with pace and skill. He gets to dangerous areas, he attacks hard, and he's very nearly a draft year player this year. Of all the DY players loaned in the HockeyEttan, only William Stromgren comes close to the pure production Cardwell has put up, and his two way results have been better.

Tier 8 - Really Digging Deep...

Just a whole lot of "we'll see" here. Everyone loves to talk about Alexander Kisakov, but I don't think I buy the hype. If he's available in the 3rd round and beyond, we can talk, but his A-rating from CSS is a bit questionable. He gets to dangerous areas to shoot, has nice pace, and decent defensive results, but his passing is really hit or miss, and his ability to exit the defensive zone is significantly better than entering the offensive zone.
Alexander Suvorov, Olen Zellwegger, Cameron Berg, and Valtteri Karnaranta are just a ton of fun to watch at their respective levels, and Berg should've been the guy I took for Team Scouching at the end of the 2020 Draft, but alas, I am a coward.
Theo Jacobsson is a guy flying under the radar that I've really liked. He's gone from dominating the U18 level, to barely playing at the U20 level, to playing against men all in the same season, and there are adjustments that are hopefully on the way. He's skilled, pretty quick on his feet, and is one of the best overall transition players I've tracked with an OCZT%/DCZT% split of 86.7% and 35.7% respectively. Again, if you're talking 7th round swings on Europeans you can stash for four years, Jacobsson would be an interesting bet.
Jere Virolainen seems to have detractors, but he's a guy who is efficient whenever I've seen him with a few moments where I'm standing there going "ooooooh!". Creativity making plays below the goal line, physical play to free pucks up around the ice, skill under pressure to evade players, there's a lot to be interested in, just not super high in the draft.
Liam Gilmartin is slowly improving with the NTDP, and I think there's potential for an energy winger down the road. He's got a solid combination of speed, skill and work rate that could take him a ways, even if he isn't going to light up the scoreboard consistently. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play with more confidence and vision more often, because it often pays off for him when he does. He can be a bit overly simplistic, but if anything that means he could easily play a more straightforward role down an NHL lineup with his fundamental tools
Kirill Gerasimyuk is just a hilarious profile. A .900+ SPCT goaltender in the VHL, facing a hilarious 36 shots against per game with SKA-Varyagi in the MHL, and outperforming his 3.6 xGA per game allowing just 2.5 goals per game. He's faced 40+ shots 10 times in 25 appearances, and registered a .900 SPCT or more in every one. Just two MHL games have been below a .900 SPCT. Nine of his appearances have been over a .950 SPCT. He's a goalie who is facing many, many shots, and many, many dangerous shots, and stopping many of them. He's a guy I'd add to my list in the mid rounds and let him grow with SKA's program.

The Watchlist

And so, we get to the watchlist. Limited usage guys, guys I've had a good feeling about for reasons I can't explain, or curious data players who are outperforming what I've seen that I need to see more of.
Bennet Roßmy is playing second division German hockey, but he's got skill and size that I like. A good release, good international results, and solid pace all seem like something worth keeping an eye on, even if he doesn't get drafted.
Pick224 highlighted Olli Nikupeteri, and I was impressed checking him out. A great released paired with solid skill showed a curious player to keep an eye on.
I just love watching Dmitri Zugan skate. He's been playing more and more over the year, getting more and more confident, but he's going to need to attack the offensive zone with more aggression to produce more. The talent is there, the fun factor is there, and the work rate is high.
William Trudeau's data is excellent, but what I've tracked and seen of him is... not. Might need to circle back, but there's such a variance here that I might've picked his worst games to track. He's got solid mobility, and good offensive instincts with a nice shot from the point and good puck distribution ability, but a DSAT% of 21.4% and an OCZT% of 36% is underwhelming at best.
Aleksi Heimosalmi, Johnathan Myrenberg and Valtteri Koskela are defenders who can skate and that's why you bet on them long term. Miks Tumanovs is the same, but older and probably not a guy you draft, but I've loved his skill, size, and skating ability for such a big defender.
The Ufa bois are in here. Yegor Suchkov should've been drafted, Daniil Bashkirov was one of the more surprising Russians on the World Junior team, working his way from 13th forward to second line centre with a few notable moments on the penalty kill. Alexei Pustozyorov also has caught my eye, but he's a D+3 and might be one you keep an eye on to snag as a free agent if he continues to improve. Daniil Aimurzin has been very good in the VHL, and absolutely dominant in the MHL, but he's a D+1 that you might just keep an eye out for as he plays more in the KHL next year. I'd still push for Suchkov over all. He's just so much fun, and I watched him step on KHL ice for the first time ever, making a dang fool out of Vladislav Kolyachonok and Brennan Menell at the same time.
Elias Sjostrom caught my eye in his brief U20 appearances, but his U18 production is laughably ridiculous. He's mobile with a solid point shot, low viewings and a low level of play leave him down here.
Same goes for Karl Umegard. He's small but a little buzzsaw that's a ton of fun to watch. Really young, and might be a guy you watch develop for another year, but he's caught my eye a few times when he's played with MODO's U20 team.
Sebastian Lundman was a U18 beast who hasn't fully projected to the U20 level, but the data I tracked on him was promising. Nice dual threat offense, nice skill and evasiveness, but just not getting the results. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a step next year.

This year's draft has as significantly higher amount of shrugging from me than I'm used to. I get the feeling that if I'm working for an NHL team, I'm waiting for unheralded guys in the higher tiers to slip later than they should such as Tichacek, Johnson, Gucciardi, Martino, or even names like Scott Morrow or Logan Stankoven could. I'm most interested in the 2nd round range of my list and what might come out of that group. There are re-entries that I'd push for, but in terms of draft eligibles, there are only a few players that are flying under the radar that I truly feel confident about in terms of their projection. I'm really curious to see where this group ends up in 5-10 years, though. As I said, I don't believe it's as bad as some might say, but it's definitely not as exciting as the last two years where I've really dug into the group.

The 2021 Scouching Reports start in March, so stay tuned for those, NHL Rookie Reports are rolling in, and stay in the loop for more What Actually Happened To... installments both here on Scouching.ca and at McKeens.

We're still not out of the woods yet with COVID-19, so I'll take a bit of time to remind you to stay as distanced as you can, wear a mask whenever you do leave your domicile, and do your part to look out for your community. It's been a really, really hard year for everyone, but the less careful we are, the longer this goes on. I want to get back into the rink just like everyone else and meeting all of you lovely people, but there's still work to do that starts with the individual.

- Will

<<Previous

Welcome to the Blog.

Tier 1 - Yeah I'm Doing This, Fight Me.

Tier 2 - High End Wild Cards

Tier 3 - The Fun Guys

Tier 4 - Potentials and Projectables

Tier 5 - A Big Giant Mess of Curious Cases

Tier 6 - The Fun Longshots

Tier 7 - The "I'm Not Sure" Tier

The Watchlist

10. Austria - 6.00 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Vinzenz Rohrer

9. Germany - 4.46 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Adrian Klein

8. Switzerland - 6.31 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Dario Sidler

7. Czech Republic - 8.88 AvgNHLeS​Eyes On: Jiri Kulich

6. Slovakia - 9.35 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Adam Sykora

5. Finland - 9.42 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Brad Lambert

4. Russia - 9.95 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Vladimir Grudinin

3. Sweden - 10.60 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Fabian Lysell

2. United States - 15.37 AvgNHLeSEyes On: Scott Morrow

1. Canada - 19.65 AvgNHLeS​Eyes On: Shane Wright

Anaheim DucksTop Prospect: Trevor ZegrasWill's Pick: Olen Zellweger

Arizona CoyotesTop Prospect: Dylan GuentherWill's Pick: Victor Soderstrom

Boston BruinsTop Prospect: Fabian LysellWill's Pick: Fabian Lysell

Buffalo SabresTop Prospect: Owen PowerWill's Pick: Ryan Johnson

Calgary FlamesTop Prospect: Matthew CoronatoWill's Pick: William Stromgren

Carolina HurricanesTop Prospect: Seth JarvisWill's Pick: Domenick Fensore

Chicago BlackhawksTop Prospect: Lukas ReichelWill's Pick: Landon Slaggert

Colorado AvalancheTop Prospect: Bowen ByramWill's Pick: Jean-Luc Foudy

Columbus Blue JacketsTop Prospect: Kent JohnsonWill's Pick: Kirill Marchenko

Dallas StarsTop Prospect: Mavrik BourqueWill's Pick: Logan Stankoven

Detroit Red WingsTop Prospect: Moritz SeiderWill's Pick: Lucas Raymond

Edmonton OilersTop Prospect: Dylan HollowayWill's Pick: Evan Bouchard

Florida PanthersTop Prospect: Spencer KnightWill's Pick: Matthew Samoskevich

Los Angeles KingsTop Prospect: Quinton ByfieldWill's Pick: Quinton Byfield

Minnesota WildTop Prospect: Jesper WallstedtWill's Pick: Marat Khusnutdinov

Montreal CanadiensTop Prospect: Cole CaufieldWill's Pick: Sean Farrell

Nashville PredatorsTop Prospect: Yaroslav AskarovWill's Pick: David Farrance

New Jersey DevilsTop Prospect: Luke HughesWill's Pick: Arseni Gritsyuk

New York IslandersTop Prospect: Aatu RatyWill's Pick: Aaty Raty

New York RangersTop Prospect: Zac JonesWill's Pick: Nils Lundkvist

Ottawa SenatorsTop Prospect: Jake SandersonWill's Pick: Roby Jarventie

Philadelphia FlyersTop Prospect: Cam YorkWill's Pick: Bobby Brink

Pittsburgh PenguinsTop Prospect: Samuel PoulinWill's Pick: Lukas Svejkovsky

San Jose SharksTop Prospect: William EklundWill's Pick: Daniil Gushchin

Seattle KrakenTop Prospect: Matthew BeniersWill's Pick: Matthew Beniers

St. Louis BluesTop Prospect: Simon RobertssonWill's Pick: Simon Robertsson

Tampa Bay LightningTop Prospect: Dylan DukeWill's Pick: Dylan Duke

Toronto Maple LeafsTop Prospect: Rodion AmirovWill's Pick: Timothy Liljegren

Vancouver CanucksTop Prospect: Vasili PodkolzinWill's Pick: Joni Jurmo

Vegas Golden KnightsTop Prospect: Peyton KrebsWill's Pick: Daniil Chayka

Washington CapitalsTop Prospect: Connor McMichaelWill's Pick: Alex Alexeyev

Winnipeg JetsTop Prospect: Cole PerfettiWill's Pick: Anton Johannesson

Bonus: Team ScouchingTop Prospect: Rodion AmirovWill's Pick: Jean-Luc Foudy

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7

The Watchlist

16th Overall - St. Louis BluesScouch's Pick - Cole SillingerGut Pick - Corson Ceulemans

17th Overall - Winnipeg JetsScouch's Pick - Carson LambosGut Pick - Simon Robertsson

18th Overall - Nashville PredatorsScouch's Pick - Chaz LuciusGut Pick - Fyodor Svechkov

19th Overall - Edmonton OilersScouch's Pick - Matthew CoronatoGut Pick - Jesper Wallstedt

20th Overall - Boston BruinsScouch's Pick - Scott MorrowGut Pick - Francesco Pinelli

21th Overall - Minnesota WildScouch's Pick - Sebastian CossaGut Pick - Sebastian Cossa

22th Overall - Detroit Red WingsScouch's Pick - Isak RosenGut Pick - Aatu Raty

23th Overall - Florida PanthersScouch's Pick - Oskar OlaussonGut Pick - Brennan Othmann

24th Overall - Columbus Blue JacketsScouch's Pick - Nikita ChibrikovGut Pick - Matthew Samoskevich

25th Overall - Minnesota WildScouch's Pick - Olen ZellwegerGut Pick - Logan Stankoven

26th Overall - Carolina HurricanesScouch's Pick - Ville KoivunenGut Pick - Nikita Chibrikov

27th Overall - Colorado AvalancheScouch's Pick - Mackie SamoskevichGut Pick - Scott Morrow

28th Overall - New Jersey DevilsScouch's Pick - Francesco PinelliGut Pick - Daniil Chayka

29th Overall - Vegas Golden KnightsScouch's Pick - Corson CeulemansGut Pick - Isak Rosen

30th Overall - Montreal CanadiensScouch's Pick - William StromgrenGut Pick - Oskar Olausson

31st Overall - Columbus Blue JacketsScouch's Pick - Ayrton MartinoGut Pick - Kalle Vaisanen

1st Overall - Buffalo SabresWill Pick - Matthew BeniersGut Pick - Owen Power

2nd Overall - Seattle KrakenWill Pick - William EklundGut Pick - Matthew Beniers

3rd Overall - Anaheim DucksWill Pick - Luke HughesGut Pick - Brandt Clarke

4th Overall - New Jersey DevilsWill Pick - Brandt ClarkeGut Pick - Luke Hughes​

10. Austria - 6.00 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Vinzenz Rohrer

9. Germany - 4.46 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Adrian Klein

8. Switzerland - 6.31 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Dario Sidler

7. Czech Republic - 8.88 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Jiri Kulich

6. Slovakia - 9.35 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Adam Sykora

5. Finland - 9.42 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Brad Lambert

4. Russia - 9.95 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Vladimir Grudinin

3. Sweden - 10.60 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Fabian Lysell

2. United States - 15.37 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Scott Morrow

1. Canada - 19.65 AvgNHLeS
Eyes On: Shane Wright

Anaheim Ducks
Top Prospect: Trevor Zegras
Will's Pick: Olen Zellweger

Arizona Coyotes
Top Prospect: Dylan Guenther
Will's Pick: Victor Soderstrom

Boston Bruins
Top Prospect: Fabian Lysell
Will's Pick: Fabian Lysell

Buffalo Sabres
Top Prospect: Owen Power
Will's Pick: Ryan Johnson

Calgary Flames
Top Prospect: Matthew Coronato
Will's Pick: William Stromgren

Carolina Hurricanes
Top Prospect: Seth Jarvis
Will's Pick: Domenick Fensore

Chicago Blackhawks
Top Prospect: Lukas Reichel
Will's Pick: Landon Slaggert

Colorado Avalanche
Top Prospect: Bowen Byram
Will's Pick: Jean-Luc Foudy

Columbus Blue Jackets
Top Prospect: Kent Johnson
Will's Pick: Kirill Marchenko

Dallas Stars
Top Prospect: Mavrik Bourque
Will's Pick: Logan Stankoven

Detroit Red Wings
Top Prospect: Moritz Seider
Will's Pick: Lucas Raymond

Edmonton Oilers
Top Prospect: Dylan Holloway
Will's Pick: Evan Bouchard

Florida Panthers
Top Prospect: Spencer Knight
Will's Pick: Matthew Samoskevich

Los Angeles Kings
Top Prospect: Quinton Byfield
Will's Pick: Quinton Byfield

Minnesota Wild
Top Prospect: Jesper Wallstedt
Will's Pick: Marat Khusnutdinov

Montreal Canadiens
Top Prospect: Cole Caufield
Will's Pick: Sean Farrell

Nashville Predators
Top Prospect: Yaroslav Askarov
Will's Pick: David Farrance

New Jersey Devils
Top Prospect: Luke Hughes
Will's Pick: Arseni Gritsyuk

New York Islanders
Top Prospect: Aatu Raty
Will's Pick: Aaty Raty

New York Rangers
Top Prospect: Zac Jones
Will's Pick: Nils Lundkvist

Ottawa Senators
Top Prospect: Jake Sanderson
Will's Pick: Roby Jarventie

Philadelphia Flyers
Top Prospect: Cam York
Will's Pick: Bobby Brink

Pittsburgh Penguins
Top Prospect: Samuel Poulin
Will's Pick: Lukas Svejkovsky

San Jose Sharks
Top Prospect: William Eklund
Will's Pick: Daniil Gushchin

Seattle Kraken
Top Prospect: Matthew Beniers
Will's Pick: Matthew Beniers

St. Louis Blues
Top Prospect: Simon Robertsson
Will's Pick: Simon Robertsson

Tampa Bay Lightning
Top Prospect: Dylan Duke
Will's Pick: Dylan Duke

Toronto Maple Leafs
Top Prospect: Rodion Amirov
Will's Pick: Timothy Liljegren

Vancouver Canucks
Top Prospect: Vasili Podkolzin
Will's Pick: Joni Jurmo

Vegas Golden Knights
Top Prospect: Peyton Krebs
Will's Pick: Daniil Chayka

Washington Capitals
Top Prospect: Connor McMichael
Will's Pick: Alex Alexeyev

Winnipeg Jets
Top Prospect: Cole Perfetti
Will's Pick: Anton Johannesson

Bonus: Team Scouching
Top Prospect: Rodion Amirov
Will's Pick: Jean-Luc Foudy

16th Overall - St. Louis Blues
Scouch's Pick - Cole Sillinger
Gut Pick - Corson Ceulemans

17th Overall - Winnipeg Jets
Scouch's Pick - Carson Lambos
Gut Pick - Simon Robertsson

18th Overall - Nashville Predators
Scouch's Pick - Chaz Lucius
Gut Pick - Fyodor Svechkov

19th Overall - Edmonton Oilers
Scouch's Pick - Matthew Coronato
Gut Pick - Jesper Wallstedt

20th Overall - Boston Bruins
Scouch's Pick - Scott Morrow
Gut Pick - Francesco Pinelli

21th Overall - Minnesota Wild
Scouch's Pick - Sebastian Cossa
Gut Pick - Sebastian Cossa

22th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Scouch's Pick - Isak Rosen
Gut Pick - Aatu Raty

23th Overall - Florida Panthers
Scouch's Pick - Oskar Olausson
Gut Pick - Brennan Othmann

24th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Scouch's Pick - Nikita Chibrikov
Gut Pick - Matthew Samoskevich

25th Overall - Minnesota Wild
Scouch's Pick - Olen Zellweger
Gut Pick - Logan Stankoven

26th Overall - Carolina Hurricanes
Scouch's Pick - Ville Koivunen
Gut Pick - Nikita Chibrikov

27th Overall - Colorado Avalanche
Scouch's Pick - Mackie Samoskevich
Gut Pick - Scott Morrow

28th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Scouch's Pick - Francesco Pinelli
Gut Pick - Daniil Chayka

29th Overall - Vegas Golden Knights
Scouch's Pick - Corson Ceulemans
Gut Pick - Isak Rosen

30th Overall - Montreal Canadiens
Scouch's Pick - William Stromgren
Gut Pick - Oskar Olausson

31st Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Scouch's Pick - Ayrton Martino
Gut Pick - Kalle Vaisanen

1st Overall - Buffalo Sabres
Will Pick - Matthew Beniers
Gut Pick - Owen Power

2nd Overall - Seattle Kraken
Will Pick - William Eklund
Gut Pick - Matthew Beniers

3rd Overall - Anaheim Ducks
Will Pick - Luke Hughes
Gut Pick - Brandt Clarke

4th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Will Pick - Brandt Clarke
Gut Pick - Luke Hughes

5th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Will Pick - Fabian Lysell
Gut Pick - William Eklund

6th Overall - Detroit Red Wings
Will Pick - Owen Power
Gut Pick - Kent Johnson

7th Overall - San Jose Sharks
Will Pick - Jesper Wallstedt
Gut Pick - Fabian Lysell

8th Overall - Los Angeles Kings
Will Pick - Simon Edvinsson
Gut Pick - Dylan Guenther

9th Overall - Vancouver Canucks
Will Pick - Kent Johnson
Gut Pick - Mason McTavish

10th Overall - Ottawa Senators
Will Pick - Mason McTavish
Gut Pick - Simon Edvinsson

11th Overall - Chicago Blackhawks
Will Pick - Dylan Guenther
Gut Pick - Chaz Lucius

12th Overall - Calgary Flames
Will Pick - Logan Stankoven
Gut Pick - Carson Lambos

13th Overall - Philadelphia Flyers
Will Pick - Fyodor Svechkov
Gut Pick - Matthew Coronato

14th Overall - Dallas Stars
Will Pick - Simon Robertsson
Gut Pick - Cole Sillinger

15th Overall - New York Rangers
Will Pick - Aatu Raty
Gut Pick - Zachary L'Heureux

10. Germany (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 10
MVP: Bennet Roßmy

9. Latvia (0-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 9
MVP: Martins Lavins

8. Switzerland (1-4-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 7
MVP: Dario Sidler

7. Czech Republic (1-3-0-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 6
MVP: Jakub Brabenec

6. Belarus (2-3-0-0)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 8
MVP: Danila Klimovich

5. United States (1-1-2-1)
Pre-Tournament Rank - 1
MVP: Dylan Duke