The Scouching Blog

Scouching's Kinda-Early 2020 Final-ish Ranking Maybe?

4/20/2020

Well it's that time again. With all the uncertainty in the world, we're kinda getting an NHL playoff I suppose, and the draft has been pushed back. In a weird stroke of luck, the extra preparation time has been a huge opportunity to keep refining data and getting a wider and better sample of this draft class. This is the first installment of a full list of 111 players I usually rank, plus a 25 player Watchlist full of guys that check some boxes either analytically and/or with the old-fashioned e y e t e s t. Why 111, you ask? Because it's 1 three times and I make the rules. Thing do get significantly more blenderized in my head beyond 93, but nitpick if you dare.

In my rankings things have changed significantly since November. The gap between the 11-20 range has widened to really encompass my 11-30 range, and you could seriously make an argument to me to take any of those players. I obviously have my preferences and they're ordered as such, but it's a very interesting year to have many picks in the top three rounds. It's a fascinating group of players, and when considering all available factors, it's really hard to nail down specific order of player's I'd select, and frankly I think that's okay. How teams develop and form them into the future role they can fit into is what will separate this class, but there's tons to play around with.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Without further ado, behold an early-final rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft, along with explanations of some the decisions made. As always, thank you all for your support, I hope you and yours are safe and well and remain so.

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

This one isn't complicated and shouldn't surprise you. People who are down on Byfield all of a sudden are either overvaluing the World Juniors, overvaluing his shortcomings, which do exist, and are also wrong.
Byfield is a player that is nearly a full year younger, and while he can't match Lafrenière's team shot attempt rates while on the ice at either end, he's showing much more of a playmaker tendency with 15.7 dangerous pass attempts/60 to Lafrenière's 9.4, and outpaces Lafrenière's offensive threat metric by a hair (22.2 vs. 21.4).
Last season, Lafrenière was in the exact same boat as Byfield at the World Juniors. A year later, he's the MVP. Does Byfield have holes in his game? Sure, but a 6'4" 17 year old who skates like Byfield does, shoots like he does, makes plays like he does and shows skill like he does don't grow on trees. He may need time, but there's absolutely a solid probability that Byfield turns into a more valuable player across the full rink.
...But Alexis Lafrenière is still extremely good, and he should be NHL good immediately. He's skilled, he plays hard, he can shoot, he can make plays, he's basically a player I think Hockey Canada goes to bed at night dreaming about. He can be a frustrating player to me with his body language, his tendency to park himself high at defensive bluelines or the neutral zone, and getting too aggressive from time to time (he was thrown out of one of the games I tracked for elbowing a defender in the face), but he has all the potential to be a premiere offensive winger with a bit of a swagger to him at both ends.

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Gunler and Holloway have dropped out and Amirov has popped in since November, but this is a very, very close group that will largely come down to fit down the road.
I still might be the biggest Marco Rossi fan out there. I love nearly everything this guy does on the ice, and I think there's tremendous potential if you give him time to build strength and experience.
That being said, at 3-5, you could convince me to swing on any of the three I have ranked. I think Raymond will be a tremendous two-way winger, Stützle will at least be an electrifying offensive winger, and Rossi could be a top level quarterback with a huge toolbox to play with.
From Perfetti onwards, it's really about what style of player you're looking for.
Perfetti has skating concerns, but I believe there's more than enough skill, edgework, and creativity to make it work.
Jamie Drysdale may not be a top pair in your face and in the highlight reel type of defenseman, but he should be able to eat minutes in a variety of situations without much issue, especially in transition.
Holtz is a player with many data-focused issues in my work, but he feels like a player that will go against what the data indicates. His shot is electrifying, and his skating ability is more than enough to chip in away from the puck. Like I said many times in the report, if there's anyone I want shooting from non-dangerous areas, it's Holtz, but shot selection improvements might make him one of the more lethal goal scorers in this generation of talent.
Lundell is a rock solid NZ play facilitator. Extremely refined and responsible in his own end, underrated offensively, and great at applying pressure away from the puck. There's are reasons he was among the leaders in Liiga shot attempt differentials. While Lundell might not be a player I saddle with expectations of a decade as my #1 centre, a highly responsible middle six centre who could reasonably play any minutes imaginable and drive good results is fine by me.
I'm a goalie skeptic, especially in the 1st round, but I will refuse to undervalue a potential #1 goaltender. They make your coaches, players, and general managers look like geniuses year after year. Askarov is playing at a level no other goalie has before at his age, for a team that has every reason to play him on one of their two junior level teams, he's stopped pucks at the men's league level, and has been excellent at every international tournament except the World Juniors. I'll forgive that one tournament and look at the plethora of evidence that if you're going to bet on a goalie, he's as good a bet as you'll find.

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

There he is. M A R A T. I constantly look for players that I'd rather have ahead of him, and the list keeps getting shorter and shorter. Khusnutdinov is a late July baby who worked his way from bottom six minutes with SKA's top MHL team to being a first line centre with some of the best 5v5 metrics of any draft eligible out of the MHL. He drives tremendous amounts of controlled offensive transitions, makes an astounding number of passes for a centre, and is a premier offensive conduit for his team. He caught my eye at the U18s last year, and I'm pretty sure his 2020 U18 would've made him a more common 1st round ranked player. He plays the way I want my centres to play. Speedy, engaged, aggressive, and some brilliant skill at times. I think he's a player you bet on. A player you let develop and get stronger over time. He's got the skating, the skill, the smarts, and the motor to put together an excellent NHL career at both ends of the ice.
I've seen more and more of the light on Jake Sanderson, but he's only ranked here because I do think it's rare to find defenders as well refined in defensive transitions as Sanderson. At time of writing, he breaks up defensive transitions 74% of the time when he gets involved. That is simply outstanding. The next highest metric in a decent sample is Emil Andrae's 70%, but it's a very small list after that. I still question how valuable that skill will be over time as the game speeds up, but Sanderson's offensive game is noteworthy as well, with a higher share of shot attempts coming from dangerous areas than Alexander Holtz, and more dangerous pass attempts per 60 5v5 minutes than Dylan Holloway. The question will be "what am I passing on if he's my guy?" The answer could be wildly different if you're looking at him 15th overall, or 5th.
Seth Jarvis in my data is a no-nonsense offensive dynamo. Shot attempts, dangerous passing, everything. He's out there focused on doing things that lead to offense. I'm not sure he's got enough defensively to be reliable, and I don't buy that he's as good as he was down the stretch, but a really intelligent offensive winger is never a bad swing to take.
This range has a lot of guys who show huge talent in flashes to my eye, almost from top to bottom. I still believe that there's a chance William Wallinder is the most electrifying defender to come out of this draft at the end of the day. He has major issues, but his pros of age, size, skating and skill are just such a great package to build on over time.
The guys I have ranked highest relative to average rankings seem to be somewhat undersized scoring wingers, who are often the guys who slip too far in the draft. It seems like I'm the biggest Daniil Gushchin, Alexander Pashin, Ozzy Wiesblatt, and Lukas Reichel fan out there.
I love Gushchin's all around offensive game when he's really going. He needs to get stronger on his feet, but his skill can humiliate opponents, and he drives dangerous shooting and passing better than almost everyone I've tracked thus far.
Pashin is a player that I fully admit is a risk. I just think he's a perfect example of an undersized player that overcomes their lack of size. He's fast, extremely skilled, moves pucks up the ice with control, and when things go wrong, I can't help but think more training and reps on the ice will help him over time. Bobbling pucks and being too patient are things you can coach and train him through. I'm willing to bet on his feet, hands and brain to turn him into an effective scoring winger at some point.
Wiesblatt is someone I went into tracking expecting to dislike, but I've only liked him more and more. At time of writing, he's controlled over 60% of the dangerous shot attempts on the ice, and every single shot attempt he has taken has been dangerous. 2/3 of them are taken from the slot area. In fact, he's had 9.3 high danger attempts per 60 minutes in my work. Lukas Reichel is the only other player over 8 in my tracking.
Speaking of Lukas Reichel, if he's a guy you can land in the 2nd, he could be an excellent complimentary scorer down the road. He's very smart away from the puck finding open space offensively and getting in position to register dangerous attempts. He isn't a particularly complex player, but he puts himself in a position to land points very well. I think there are flashes of a good transition player, and he kept up with Tim Stützle in a number of metrics, but when push comes to shove, he's doing a lot of very notable things against men.
Jean-Luc Foudy is in here at 31. He does so much on paper so well. In terms of controlling pucks up the ice with his own stick, I don't believe there's a better player available. Cole Perfetti generated about the same controlled offensive transitions per 60 minutes at 5v5, but Foudy generated many through his feet, while Perfetti used teammates very effectively and passed the puck far more often. Foudy is a risk, mostly due to his tendency to hang onto pucks forever, and his defensive play isn't great, but the guy was borderline untouchable at times in the offensive zone, and sent passes to dangerous areas over 19% more than any other CHL player I've tracked. If he can hold onto the puck to the point of frustration, but also sends a pass to the slot every three minutes of 5v5 ice time, completes passes over 75% of the time, and moves pucks as efficiently as anyone in the draft, then who's at fault for his lack of production? His profile is one I'd bet on after two years in the CHL with plenty of chances to get more experience.

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

This is where the real blenderization begins. I think this range of the draft is unbearably even. Names like Sam Colangelo, Braden Schneider, and Anton Johannesson could very easily be argued as the first names off the board on Day 2, or names that see themselves drop to round 3 in my view.
The more I see of Jérémie Poirier, the less I like. I feel as though his game took a step back over the season. He skates himself into trouble, his skating up the ice can be clunky, and his defensive game can be downright abysmal, but there's plenty of skill and mobility to bet on. He doesn't have the data that indicates he's extremely undervalued or likely to regress positively in my work, but what he does very well is very apparent. I just get the feeling he's going to be a tough, tough defenseman to develop into what he could be.
I'm a huge, huge fan of Joni Jurmo. He caught my attention early for his fast, skilled and aggressive offensive style, and while he has downsides to his game, he's a player that I would absolutely love to have as a power play quarterback with great 5v5 instincts with the puck. He might be one of the best pure skaters among all defensemen this year, but he has work to do, especially in his own end. I'm excited to see him with JYP next season, and you should be too. He's another player I'm pretty sure would've made a name for himself at the U18s.
Brett Berard might be one of the most quietly effective players in the draft. He's very close to being the "Mr. Scouch-a-lytics" for 2020. He controls 70% of the high danger chances on the ice. He moves pucks up the ice with control 80% of the time. He has 44 controlled offensive defensive blueline transitions/60 at 5v5. That beats everyone so far by 31%. He isn't a fast player, but he plays smart, plays hard, and pushes play positively.
Samuel Knazko is a guy I've been a fan of all year. He's a very modern brand of defender. Highly active along offensive bluelines but has great mobility to cover his tracks. He's one of three players over 100 pass attempts/60 minutes at 5v5, and shuts down defensive transitions at around the 70% rate. He's another case of players who might have a certain narrative regarding aggression and risk, but in reality, is not much riskier than defensemen ranked much higher. He's a creative passer that absolutely needs work in his own end, but he is a defender who will defend by preventing the opponent from getting to the DZ in the first place.
Speaking of players who might not line up with a narrative, I wasn't a huge Braden Schneider fan in viewings, and the data isn't a whole lot better. He faces the 4th most shot attempts of any player I've tracked thus far, but thankfully the majority are low danger attempts. His high danger shot rate against is very low, but moving pucks up the ice with control is a difficulty relative to this cohort at 53%. Sanderson, Drysdale, Jurmo, Knazko, and Johannesson are all defenders ranked to this point that are over 66.7. He's just a guy that I think will get picked well before I'm prepared to do so.
It's impossible to talk about Braden Schneider without looking at Kaiden Guhle. I've warmed up to him in a sense, at least moreso than Schneider, but his rate of controlled offensive transitions is under 50% at present time, which is far from ideal, but his skating and defensive game feel more likely to translate without issue.
Anton Johannesson will be a fascinating player to keep an eye on going into and coming out of the draft. He's fought injuries over the last two seasons, but I'm of the belief that if he were healthy all season, and just a bit taller, we'd be looking at him in the early 2nd, and potentially the 1st round. He's small, but shifty and mobile. He isn't the fastest defender you'll see, but he's one of the most effective puck movers I've tracked. He completes more passes per 60 minutes than anyone else attempts. He has more dangerous pass attempts per 60 minutes than Marco Rossi, Alexis Lafrenière, and Kasper Simontaival. No other defenseman is even close.
Brandon Coe played on an awful team, but I saw him show exceptional skill for a big winger with solid skating on his edges. He's on my list to track, but I've really liked what I've seen.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov is in here, and I still believe people aren't seeing the forest through the trees. He started as a bottom six forward with Sibir after turning 17 in July, and had one of the best draft eligible years in the MHL. He only got better and better as the year went on, and his skating, shot selection, and creativity lead me to believe that patience will be rewarded if he's your guy. A real long term project that I'm sticking my neck out for, but I really love the potential he brings.

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

This was a tough tier. A lot of these guys I see flashes of, and many are players whose data I've gathered and tracked haven't met expectations.
Everyone loves Antonio Stranges skill, and granted, the data I've tracked is very good, but I'm really unsure that there's going to be a great professional player here. His skating can be questionable, he isn't extremely active away from the puck, and I just get the feeling that his junior career could be excellent, but projecting his game is difficult.
Martin Chromiak is a guy I was excited to track when seeing how his data translated to Kingston, but I really question where his game will go over time. He's a solid option to flow pucks through in offensive transitions, and he can be a dangerous player in the offensive zone, but his skating isn't great, he misses a ton of his passes, and creates far too many uncontrolled offensive transitions for my liking. I think he'll get picked before I'm ready, but in this range he could potentially be a good role player as a catch and pass player who trails an offensive rush looking to make a play at the last second.
Daniel Torgersson is very much in the same boat. Decent skill for a big winger, but again, another role player at the end of the day. If it's me, I get Torgersson to the net away from the puck, keep finding open space, create screens, and use his skill in tight to either slap rebounds in the net or get pucks to open ice in the dangerous areas.
Eamon Powell and Brock Faber are lower ceiling players to me, but with Powell's intelligence and skill, and Faber's skating and reach, both could be interesting long term bets.
Benjamin Baumgartner is legit, I think. He took massive steps this year since I peeked at him with Austria's U20 team. He plays ~10 5v5 minutes a game, on par with other tracked players in men's leagues, but was 6th in forward scoring, and my tracked data indicates a rock solid two-way centre, and at time of writing, he leads men's league players I've tracked in offensive threat, driven mostly by an outstanding 15 dangerous pass attempts/60.
I just really like Zayde Wisdom. He exudes work ethic with good skill. I found him to be a major, major reason Martin Chromiak looked so good paired with Shane Wright. That unit really looked like they clicked right away, and Wisdom was a huge part in that.
Guys like Cardwell, Svejkovsky, Francis, and Mäenpää are big, big swings on skill. Mäenpää is small, and looks/plays like it. It's an issue for sure, but he's extremely quick, extremely agile, and somehow still manages to get 43% of his shot attempts from high danger areas. Only Benjamin Baumgartner and Ozzy Wiesblatt surpass those metrics with 44% and 66.7%(!) respectively.
I really like Marko Stacha. Not sure exactly why, and I need to track some data, but I liked him at the World Juniors, and I've really liked him playing against men in Slovakia. He's a good skater with a solid defensive brain and offensive flashes of skill.
Dylan Peterson is a tremendous player to watch, but he's almost all tools right now. I find it hard to nail down exactly what kind of player he's going to be. His skill and skating for such a big forward is really desirable, but he had trouble in his own end this year, and I found many plays to die on his stick in the offensive zone with a lack of awareness, adaptability, and dynamic ability to his game.

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

Pavel Tyutnev barely plays, but his results when he plays can be excellent. He's resilient with the puck, creative offensively, completes over 80% of his passes, and takes 40% of his shot attempts from high danger. If he's available at pick 217, you could do much worse.
Trineyev and Zlodeyev are guys I've only recently begun to dig into, but with Trineyev's combination of skating and size, and Zlodeyev's creativity and quarterback potential, I've been a fan.
Wyatt Kaiser can skate. If you want to bet on skating, he's a great option. Same goes for Ronan Seeley.
Alexander Nikishin had decent flashes, but I really do not know why he played so much in the KHL this year. He seemed overwhelmed with the pace of play, but his hands and physical ability was fun, I guess.
Everyone has been asking me if Cale Makar 2.0 is Michael Benning. I'm about 99.9% sure he is not. I haven't enjoyed the AJHL as a whole, and Sherwood Park seemed like a team that egged the opponent into 4 on 4 situations through penalty shenanigans, where Benning would send stretch passes to Carter Savoie at the offensive blueline, and would score one of their 6 goals of the night. Of course I'm oversimplifying, but this has happened in many of the games I've tracked and watched, and I'm really not sure about either one of those players, doubly so after the World Junior A Challenge.
Victor Mancini is a kid I want to meet and get to know. The decision to skip on the USHL and live in Gothenburg to play with Frölunda as a 17 year old is a very mature decision to me. I've read that he's only looking for the best possible path for him, and he picked a good one. It's unconventional, but I believe it's a good thing. He shuts down 70% of transitions coming his way, maintains control in 70% of offensive transitions, and while he has some mobility concerns defensively, he's a guy I think you could buy low on and let play in college with a modern program like Omaha's.

The Watchlist

These are just fun players I've caught over the year that might be fun shots in the dark down the road.
NOTE: I've edited this list on June 19th to remove Matvei Bannikov and Aleksei Sinkkonen. I really like the potential of both players, but I realized they may be more "probably undrafted but they're on the list to keep an eye on next year", rather than "late round actual potential swings". They've been replaced with Karri Aho and Albert Lyckåsen.
I'm a believer in Brady Burns and especially Josh Lawrence. If Lawrence's hands can catch up to his feet, he could be quite a player. He's quick, works hard, and is aggressive away from the puck. Similar to Tyutnev, you could do worse at pick 217. Same goes for Alex Gaffney, while we're at it.
I don't know why Landon Slaggert isn't scoring more, but he's a guy I constantly notice on the NTDP when my tracked player is off the ice. There's skill there, he's a June baby, and he plays big. I usually let the data do the talking, but he's a guy I've liked this year.
Mitchell Smith you say? Well... He's one of the most aggressive offensive defensemen I've ever seen play the game. He has the most individual high/medium danger shot attempts per 60 of any defenseman I've tracked with 5.17, beating Ryan O'Rourke's 4.99. His skating is fine, and while his aggression can lead to odd man rushes against, he has faced the third least shot attempts against of the defenders I've tracked this year. He may be Justin Bergeron 2.0, but he's most definitely fun to watch and has decent results to go with it.
Vladimir Mashkov is the king of "doing nothing but creating chances". 18.1 dangerous pass attempts/60 is second only to Jean-Luc Foudy's 21.2, and he does it while playing highly limited minutes on a good Omsk roster. Outside of that, I like his edges and mobility, but he's as much of a project as you'll find.
Yes, Shakir is in here. He's almost a meme at this point, but I see him show nice tools with his feet and hands, but that's about it. His decisionmaking and defensive awareness is simply not good enough, and at the moment, it completely outweighs whatever tools he displays. If an NHL team wants to swing on him in the 1st round, so be it, but he relinquishes zone transitions extremely poorly, and hands possession over with ease. These are things I do not want my defensemen to be doing, regardless of how good their feet and hands are.
Carter Savoie is only on here because of what happens when he gets his head in the game. I've rarely caught him backchecking, let alone entering the defensive zone, and while his shot and skill is a ton of fun at it's best, I just don't think this is a player I'm jumping at the chance to add to my pipeline. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not the only one.
Maxim Musorov continues to fly under the radar due to him playing in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, but I've really liked his game. He's slippery, quick, and I thought he looked really good leading Kazakhstan's world junior team.
Yegor Suchkov is one of the younger re-entries out there, but I love how much fun he is to watch. He's small, but skilled and agile, and managed to show well at the VHL level.
Everyone loves Dmitri Sheshin, and while I'm still skeptical of his pro upside, he should probably have been drafted last year, and his skill is undeniable.
I'm just really liked watching Mateusz Szurowski, and Ivan Zivlak. They're interesting long term projects with measured success in various levels. Albert Lyckåsen is an aggressive offensive defender I've loved for his attacking mentality and how exciting his skating can be, especially in the offensive zone.

Final Notes

That's it. That's the list. I want to note that there's been some discussion recently surrounding length of lists and their usefulness. I've been told that many scouts and teams have lists as small as half the length as mine. I'm still confident in the overall list of players I have ranked, but I completely understand the point of view. My rankings are split into tiers to group players together based on a general feel for talent, and I fully admit that past a certain point, you have to shrug and take your best swing. It's pretty apparent that I value pure, raw talent, regardless of risk. Every pick carries risk, but believing in every player you pick, properly identifying their strengths and weaknesses, and putting them on an achievable trajectory to NHL success is the part that can separate a steal from just another 5th round pick. Give me four lines that can go out, generate offense, suppress defense, and score goals. I don't care as much about how the results are generated, but I do care that the players can do all of those things, especially at 5v5. Even if they have that profile at a lower level, isolating how they're generating those results, and trying to project them is vital to how I value a player. Players have some leeway in this area, but this is the whole reason I evaluate the way that I do. Results based data leads to interesting case studies, data tracking isolates what is happening when the player is playing, and video indicates what might or might not be projectable or going right or wrong.

All this being said, if you have any questions about anything, please don't hesitate to reach out on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube or email. There is a piece coming somewhat soon exploring my general philosophy, so stay tuned for that! More Scouching Reports are on the way as well.

If you liked what I do, please consider becoming a Scouch Potato on whatever platform you're comfortable. Patrons get early access to videos, exclusive data visualizations, written Scouching reports, a private Discord server and plenty of other fun things, but YouTube, Twitter and Instagram would all love to have you too.

Be well and stay safe.
- Will

Set up your creator ID in the app settings!

0 Comments

The NHL CSS List is Out. Here are my Thoughts.

1/13/2020

1 Comment

The NHL Central Scouting Midterm list is now online and viewable, so if you haven't checked it out yet, definitely do so here before reading further. You don't have to, it just might be good to familiarize yourself, but I'm not the police, so I won't come after you.

Understanding NHL Central Scouting's philosophy is an... interesting exercise. There's a clear preference towards size, a bit of a tendency to value older players, and splitting the players into North American and European skaters goaltenders makes it difficult to understand the landscape as a whole. That doesn't mean we can't explore some cases that are, in my humble opinion, either overvalued, or in many cases undervalued. So behold, three players I'm currently highest and lowest on relative to the NHL Central Scouting List, as well as some honourable mentions.

Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Metric	Value
NHLeS	17.80
INV%	17.45%
ES P1/60	0.51
ESGF/60	2.33
ESGA/60	1.70
OffCat%	6.35%
DefCat%	5.11%

This one is a bit of a given, based on the analytical work I do, but I have a hard time agreeing with Guhle being a legitimate top talent coming out of this draft. It can certainly be seen that considering Guhle's size and playing style, he isn't the prototypical 6'6" bus on skates that a team hopes turns into Zdeno Chara. Guhle is a surprisingly mobile player who can certainly hold his own in all three zones. It's just a question of upside to me. My viewings of Guhle indicate a player focused more on chasing hits near the blueline in lieu of making a simpler play that maintains position between himself and the middle of the ice. His play with the puck is often somewhat uninspiring and can lead to failures exiting the defensive end.

It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Metric	Value
NHLeS	23.91
INV%	17.45%
ES P1/60	2.04
ESGF/60	3.86
ESGA/60	1.47
OffCat%	3.76%
DefCat%	42.70%

Let me get this out of the way: I really enjoy watching Jack Quinn play hockey. Beyond that, his September 2001 birthday coupled with a much higher focus on goal scoring on a remarkably talented OHL team bring some questions to the table. He's very skilled and has good two-way metrics, but I'm skeptical of his long term outlook considering how impressive some players nearly a year younger (Brett Berard, Martin Chromiak, and Dmitri Ovchinnikov come to mind) have been. I'm always skeptical of players who don't generate assists as it implies that utilizing teammates in a system might not be a strong trait and that a sense of "dynamism" might be lacking.

Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Metric	Value
NHLeS	14.45
INV%	16.57%
ES P1/60	1.77
ESGF/60	3.07
ESGA/60	2.61
OffCat%	-23.84%
DefCat%	9.71%

I see the appeal of Will Cuylle. I really do. Good straight line speed, constantly applying pressure on teammates, loves the physical side of the game, he's a brand of player that I know teams still value highly. I just do not see his value being worth what a team might be willing to pay for. He's steadily improved this year after a bit of a slow start, but I don't see Cuylle being much more than an F3 who creates space for linemates through his physical play, and I'm not sure that's worth a 1st, 2nd, or depending on who's available, a 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If he continues to improve, he could come off this list, but I've also come away far more impressed with Jean-Luc Foudy in the times I've viewed the Spitfires, and Foudy is ranked just one spot ahead of Cuylle on the NHL's list.

Undervalued

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Metric	Value
NHLeS	8.48
INV%	12.24%
ES P1/60	1.05
ESGF/60	2.74
ESGA/60	2.53
OffCat%	11.39%
DefCat%	21.37%

Holloway's remarkable AJHL production hasn't followed him to a stacked Wisconsin offense, but I'm honestly not concerned. In my viewings, his power play time is restricted, he's playing down the linup a bit, and it feels as though the increased pace of play to the NCAA can be a bit much for the former AJHLer. His talent is undeniable though, and I've seen him take over shifts on his own more often than I've seen him disappear. He brings a great motor with a rangy two-way game with slick offensive tools. He's a player I'd certainly take my time with before taking him to the NHL, but I really do believe if the NHL believes he's the 10th best available North American, he could turn out to be a major steal of the draft if available in the late teens or early 20s.

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Metric	Value
NHLeS	18.67
INV%	31.45%
ES P1/60	1.59
ESGF/60	2.54
ESGA/60	1.69
OffCat%	-28.17%
DefCat%	38.15%

I personally find Simontaival a major boom or bust player. He's done very well on an extremely talented Tappara junior team with a proven track record against men from 2018-19's Mestis season. That being said, his talent level indicates that he should be clapping the Finnish junior leagues to pieces, but he's been inconsistent. Simontaival is an electrifying skater with wonderful skill and a great ability to get chances from high and medium danger areas. At the same time, he can be careless with the puck and can try to do a bit too much. Whether he stays with Tappara, or comes to North America, he has a whack of potential. A loan to KOOVEE of the Mestis has been promising for him with four points in six games, but as much raw skill and speed that Simontaival has, there's a possibility he's a very talented kid who just can't get over that final "hump" we see with so many skilled players as they develop into NHLers.

Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Metric	Value
NHLeS	15.89
INV%	16.02%
ES P1/60	1.62
ESGF/60	3.50
ESGA/60	1.62
OffCat%	-14.79%
DefCat%	26.11%

Joni Jurmo caught my eye very early in the year watching Jokerit's talented junior team. He's a big defenseman with remarkable mobility and great primary point production at even strength. His hands and ability to move puck into and through the neutral zone is excellent, which is exactly what I believe you need out of a modern defender. He cuts off zone transitions extremely well and chokes out breakouts while staying in position. Passing and carrying decisions are good, but he isn't the crispiest passing defensemen out there and can miss his target a bit more than I'd like. I could easily see a good minutes-eating defender down the line, especially if he slips into the middle rounds of the draft and you're willing to be patient and develop the profile he's exhibited so far.

Closing Thoughts

Trust me, there are many more. The NHL CSS rankings get a little bit hairy regarding players that are tough to view, in limited roles on their teams, or perform well in more subtle analytical data rather than raw point production. While that certainly doesn't render the CSS rankings moot, it is a reminder that it is important to use data and video work to supplement live viewings as much as possible to get a firm view on the players available in the draft.

If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.

1 Comment

Scouching's 2020 World Junior Championship Preview

12/21/2019

1 Comment

Just want the data? Fine. Click here. Or scroll down once the tournament begins and rosters are finalized.

It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.

It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected.

I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.

Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

I know I just mentioned that this year's tournament is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm relatively confident the Kazakhs are destined for relegation. Names like Artur Gatiyatov, Demid Yeremyev and Samat/Sayan Daniyar are gone, with names like Maxim Musorov, and Vladislav Nurek to replace them. I've seen Musorov and Guseinov play, and while they're good talents at the MHL level, most of these players hail from an MHL team that has won 9 of 42 games this year. Trouble is, they also cut Guseinov, a 45%INV player on that team that makes up a large portion of this one. I would be absolutely shocked if this team manages to save themselves in relegation against their likely German opponents.

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

A team that likely had the talent to be in this tournament last year, the Germans are a team I feel will likely be in the relegation group with Kazakhstan; not due to talent, but due to the logistics of the tournament. Of Canada, Russia, Czechia, and the USA, I have a hard time seeing them getting anywhere above last place in their group. It's possible that a top tier group of Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel, John-Jason Peterka, and Moritz Seider could upset a team or two if Hendrik Hane absolutely shuts the door, which I personally would greatly enjoy, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

The greatest coach in hockey has found new work with HC Davos, but last year's Cinderella story is back with another group that may not be able to recapture the magic from last year. Philipp Kurashev, a star in the 2019 tournament is now ineligible and off to a solid North American pro career with the AHL's Rockford Ice Hogs. There aren't a ton of names that could shock opponents as Switzerland has fallen off a little in recent years with regards to NHL draft output, but Tim Berni, Nico Gross, Valentin Nussbaumer, and undrafted not-goalie David Aebischer could all be contributors. Goaltender Luca Hollenstein has been a solid goaltender for Swiss junior teams, and if he can steal a game here or there again, anything is possible, even if he's 5'10".

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

The perennial quarterfinalists are back with another team with flashes of talent, but not a whole lot of real depth. I will say that I think this is a stronger team than usual. I'm extremely excited to see 2020 eligibles Samuel Knazko and a major sleeper for me in Marko Stacha hopefully play major roles. Maxim Cajkovic should be the top player on this team though. He's a true sniper with great skill, but his defensive shortcomings may be a bit exposed with a shallow defense and centre group. The thought of cutting Martin Chromiak is a perplexing one, but this should be a curious team for the Slovakians.

Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

The strength of the Finns this year will come from their depth. Justus Annunen has been great in the Liiga this year, and this tournament will be a major test of that success. The team on paper is headlined by Coyotes draft pick Matias Maccelli who has absolutely erupted for Ilves Tampere in the Liiga. His teammate Lassi Thomson will headline the defense with a rejuvenated Anttoni Honka, and notable Winnipeg Jet Ville Heinola. With Rasmus Kupari, the Räty brothers, the forward group should be solid as well, but I'm a bit hesitant to see if they repeat last year's success. It may come down to how Annunen plays, but you also can't ever count out the Finns and how they play the game. They're fast, they work as a unit, they play hard, can wear opponents down and can capitalize on your mistakes.

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

Here's where we start to get into the weeds a bit. With the way Russian teams "develop" their youth, NHLeS metrics can be artifically low for many Russian players, especially the youngest of the bunch. This year the Russian team is the oldest in the tournament by a third of a year, but there is plenty of talent all over this lineup that I think could easily threaten the best teams out there. If Yaroslav Askarov is the guy in net, he could be the star of the show. I usually don't touch goaltending much in my work, but Askarov is the only VHL goaltender under 18 years of age to play major minutes in recent memory and he's touched KHL ice with SKA St. Petersburg and did not look out of place. He's legit, and as good a bet at a #1 goaltender as you're going to get since Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's unbelievably athletic and technical, making the game look easy and being mature well beyond his years.

Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

Since the Swedes won the gold in 2012, they never missed medal contention until they got shut out by the Swiss last year. The trouble is that they haven't won the tournament since 2012 either and lost all three bronze medal games they competed in. They've reloaded their team for 2020 with an outstanding defense crop including Victor Söderström, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Rasmus Sandin, and Tobias Björnfot. That is a gross group of players to have moving pucks up the ice and controlling possession of the game. Any of the three goaltenders on their roster could be very solid as well.

The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

I'm just as surprised to see the Czechs have as high a score as they have, but with a number of good CHL players on the way, and one of the highest NHLeS' in the tournament in Jan Jeník leading the way, the Czechs could have a very impressive tournament after making it through the quarterfinals just once since 2005. Lukas Dostal was wonderful last season and should get his job back this year, but Nick Malik and Jan Bednar are two 2020 eligibles who are quite highly regarded as prospects.

Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.

The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

Hahahahahahaha this team is so loaded that you just have to laugh. The 2019 USA NTDP team headliners are almost all here they brought all their outsider friends too. Arthur Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, Bobby Brink, Zac Jones, Jordan Harris, etc. etc. etc. are a great group on their own, but adding Trevor Zegras, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Alex Turcotte, Beecher, and others from prior years is simply ridiculous. I know I was down on Spencer Knight last year, but this is why I'm outward about how goaltending is weird. He's been great with Boston College and internationally, so I expect nothing to change there. This is a dangerous team with at least three scary lines that could easily take this tournament, and the defense is a well rounded group of offensive talent and physical ability. Even the role players like Parker Ford, Curtis Hall and Jack Drury have been impressive players when I've seen them.

I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

Once again, the Canadian team is out front by quite a margin. The CHL is the best junior league program in the world, but I'm one of those people that firmly believes that European programs and players are continously catching up and underrated. That being said, Canada should still be the top team in this tournament. Their perennial weaknesses often are in net, and with their discipline on international ice. Last year's talent was somewhat light in premier offensive talent, but this year is quite the opposite. Canada's 2020 crop is outstanding and they've chosen to showcase Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Jamie Drysdale, and Dawson Mercer on this year's team. Byfield is a very large, very good skating creative offensive threat, Lafrenière is an absolute hound on the ice with remarkable skill and overall offensive ability, Drysdale is already a top two-way OHL defender, and Mercer is one of the more well-rounded finishers in the 2020 draft outside of the aforementioned Canadians.

The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.

I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.

Closing Thoughts

I really want to reiterate that this year really feels like an especially deep and talented pool of players that we'll get the privilege of watching in Czechia. There are legitimately 6 teams I could see having a good run at winning a medal, and really anything can happen at this tournament. Multiple teams have top level goaltending, multiple teams have top level offensive weapons, multiple teams are absolutely loaded on defense, and I honestly have a hard time actually being definitive about who is likely to finish where.

That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:

Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia

This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.

In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.

P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.

Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.

- Will

1 Comment

Scouching's Preliminary 2020 NHL Draft Rankings

11/19/2019

0 Comments

Ah yes, it's that time again. NHL Draft Rankings... Every year, I say I dislike rankings, yet every year, here I am. This year I have said that there will be no rankings until after the World Junior Championships in January, but considering just how much data I have access to, and how many players and games I've tracked, I feel relatively comfortable publicizing my preliminary Top 5 tiers before publishing a more complete version next year. On the whole, the preseason hype of this crop seems to be a bit of a mixed bag in my opinion. A number of talents are emerging worldwide, however, and I do believe this will still be a strong group of players with solid depth in the late 1st through 3rd rounds, but from my vantage point, the talent dropoff after the first two tiers could be relatively steep when all is said and done. At the same time, the weekly 20+ NHLeS report I release on Twitter is still much longer than last year's so I may be biased against myself, which is a little unsettling.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including includes NHLeS and INV%, values as of November 24, 2019, with P1/60 and Cat% data accurate to November 19, 2019 and is derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Give him a follow, guy could be going places. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

"Will, please stop yammering and show me the rankings."
- All of you

Alright without further delay, here are my 5 tiers of 2020 NHL Draft prospects.

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

I've said for a while that I personally lean 60/40 in favor of Lafrenière, but it is not a difficult conversation to bet on Quinton Byfield's upside long term.
Lafrenière is a truly gifted hockey player who just seems to get it. Tremendously smart all around, great skill, great scoring instincts and pushes play at both ends extremely well. His skating is awkward, but not slow, and he can control the flow of the game at his pace. At the NHL, it remains to be seen how that translates, but his overall talent and ability to find the scoresheet is unequivocally remarkable.
On the other hand, Quinton Byfield is a player who could turn into an Evgeni Malkin-type big centre with tremendous skating ability and skill. He's a lethal scorer and a bit more of an offensively-focused game, but to me, he has tremendous upside. Considering his 11 month age advantage over Lafrenière, it is a perfectly legitimate discussion to have if you're picking 1st overall, and neither of these players should be available at 3rd overall.
I mean it. I almost pulled the "I'm going to rank both of these guys at #1 lol" trick, but I pulled myself together and went with my gut. My gut is weak, but my gut was final. I take Lafrenière and his wonderful overall no-BS approach to the game, but a potentially not-fun centre that could QB a line for a decade or more is pretty enticing.

Tier 2 - The Very Good Ones

I'm not buying into those who are down on Lucas Raymond. I'm just not. He's being deployed strangely in Sweden, but what I've seen is impressive. My tracked data has been highly favourable towards him (71% SAT% ain't bad, for example), but he does show visible signs of potential discomfort with full time SHL play. He's an exceptionally skilled player under pressure, creative in transition and in the offensive zone, and can be a very dangerous offensive quarterback. His upside is tremendous, but he has been a hard player to get a read on early.
Yes, Marco Rossi is a Top-5 player to me. His data lines up with Lafrenière in a few ways, his tracked data is outstanding, and he consistently drives play unbelievably well. He's a player who when I've tracked him, nearly every shift he's doing things that push play his way at both ends. I tracked a game where his team clawed back for a 5-4 win where he had 5 assists, and could have easily scored at least two more points had things been slightly different. He's skilled, agile, plays hard, has swagger, and if he can rein in the legitimately troublesome moments he's had this year, he could be a tremendous player down the line.
Yes, Tim Stützle is also a Top-5 player to me. His hands are remarkable, his perimeter play with his ability to cut into dangerous areas and carve opponents is a ton of fun to watch. He's no slouch in his own end, but he's going to make his money by scoring points. His shot is electric, and his passing against men is often dangerous. I'm a huge fan, especially with how much he's improved over the last calendar season.
Anton Lundell might not have a massive ceiling, but he could be a fantastic two-way centre who may not get fans out of their seats often, but he could be a person hockey nerds and coaches alike love. He pushes possession extremely well and should be a valuable NHLer for years, if not on boxes of cereal across the league.
Drysdale is the best available defender in this draft, hands down and to me it isn't close. He does things Bowen Byram didn't that I think makes him a more projectable two-way player, but he's every bit as capable of being as dangerous as Byram offensively. There's a refinement there and a calculated aggressiveness that I enjoy watching.
Ok, Holtz and Perfetti are lower than most. I'll say this: I really like Alexander Holtz's combination of skating and scoring ability. He's got a legitimately excellent release and scoring ability and is underrated with how engaged he is when he doesn't have the puck. Trouble is, beyond that I feel there is work to be done. He's unreliable in his own zone, and his passing can be unreliable if not making the conservative play. There is a great package of fundamental skill there, but you will need to know what to expect out of him if you're drafting him. With Perfetti, I see him listed as a centre, but often used as a winger, and I feel that's the best position for him, at least right now. His hands and creativity are among the best in the draft, and betting on that could convince me to put him right at the top of this tier, but I've found his defensive engagement to be poor, and his skating speed leads me to believe that he cheats high in the defensive zone to jump into rushes before they really get moving. It can work, but similar to Holtz, he might be a case of "you can't score points if you aren't at least competent defensively". Offensively, however, Perfetti is an unbelievable passer with great hands and a very good release on him, and could be an A-level power play quarterback, but my outlook on him is skeptical at the moment.
I usually don't put goalies in the 1st round. I'm pretty sure Askarov belongs here. After the players ranked prior are drafted, I'm willing to take the bet on him. I don't know what else to say. The guy is good and true #1 goaltending is invaluable.
When Dylan Holloway is on, he can completely take over a shift. When he isn't, he can totally disappear, but he's also one of the youngest players in the NCAA and is coming from the AJHL. I love his energy and offensive skill, and I have all the time in the world to discuss taking him anywhere in this range. Considering his youth in the NCAA playing bottom six minutes with very little power play time in my experience, he could be flying under the radar.
Rounding out the only tier where I'll write on everyone, I'm a believer in Noel Gunler. I've learned to try to avoid betting a player will capture their game at it's worst, and err on the side of the player at their best. Gunler is dangerous in transition and a great fast break playmaker. He has scoring ability sure, but so far in the games I've tracked of his, 28% of his pass attempts are directed at or through dangerous areas. His 69% SAT% is nice, and while there are issues with engagement defensively and with putting enough behind his passes to get to their target, at his best, Gunler certainly belongs here. If he's the guy that drops to the 2nd round, I run to the microphone and give him a go, rumoured attitude issues and all.

Tier 3 - Could Be Great, or Nothing.

Now we're getting spicy. Rodion Amirov leads this group, and I've been bouncing he and Jan Mysak between tiers 2 and 3 for a while. I'm a bigger believer in Amirov, but both are great scoring wingers. Mysak is younger, but I think gets undervalued due to his team. Litvinov is not a great modern team, often valuing dumping and chasing pucks and appear to be a team plagued by innate panic. Mysak falls into those habits, but the talent is blatantly there for him to be something much more. He's an effective member of the team, but I think he could be a very useful offensive piece. He's just hard to get a read on when he gets so few good looks. Amirov on the other hand has not looked out of place in the KHL to my eye, and has performed very well at the VHL level, let alone the MHL level. He doesn't show the habits of carelessness and individual focus I often see with young Russian players, and I think there's a great talent waiting to come out over time. He's in a very good program in Ufa with a number of high level young players, and I feel he's only going to get better.
Kasper Simontaival is having a slow season on paper, but my data tracked on him is outstanding. He pushes possession, gets dangerous looks constantly, skates well, and for an offensive winger, he could potentially be a steal. He should be scoring a lot more than he is, and I think those who overlook him will be sorely mistaken down the line.
I have to feel for Hendrix Lapierre. I'm usually not afraid of drafting injured players, but three concussions in under a year, an injury that is often easier to get the more you have, is legitimately concerning. Incredibly Hlinka aside, I've felt he played fine in Chicoutimi with a lot of room to grow. In reality, I'd have a hard time taking the chance in the 1st round, but he's ranked here because dang nabbit, he's talented enough.
Roni Hirvonen, William Wallinder, and Lukas Reichel are three players I will run through a wall for. Wallinder has the size, skating ability and stick skill to potentially be the best defender not named Drysdale in the draft. Absolutely love his raw tools. Hirvonen is a high octane offensive player who has impressed me with his refined game every time I've seen him, even if his team isn't great. On Reichel, people are sleeping on him, but his skating, quick decision making, and somewhat mediocre linemates (Maxim Lapierre, predominantly) lead me to be really high on him. He's a shooting machine from dangerous areas and can be highly valuable in transition. Definitely one to pay attention to as the season goes on.
I want to love Dawson Mercer. I see the talent, but the consistency and data just isn't there.
Jérémie Poirier is going to go as far as his brain takes him. In terms of raw talent, he's the #2 defender available, but his team works poorly as a unit and he's often a major part of that. Holding onto pucks too long, not engaging defensively, skating into 1 on 3s, and ignoring clear looks to linemates makes everything but offensive production look less than ideal on paper. If he can calm his game down a tad and play with a bit more dynamic ability, he could be a great pickup.

Tier 4 - The Real Question Marks

I already know what you're thinking, and please keep in mind that these are tiers. Justin Barron and Jean-Luc Foudy have been off to poor starts, but they're improving. I'm a big fan of the raw tools in both, especially Foudy, but I will be paying close attention to them over the year. I could be convinced to take them at the top end of the tier, but there are names in here that I am very excited about... like...
Okay, I'm a numbers guy, and Marat Khusnutdinov doesn't have great production at first glance, but I've seen a lot of this guy play. Similar to Marco Rossi, every time Khusnutdinov steps on the ice so far when I've seen him, he's awesome. He's setting linemates up for scoring chances that are whiffed on, he's playing exceptional two-way hockey, he sets up behind the net to make a play beautifully. He's scoring primary points on 75% of goals scored while he's on the ice. He's getting points on 92%. He's a player I know you could grab in the 2nd, but I'm a big, big believer in him, especially considering his age. He's not getting much PP time, and his team is absolutely stacked and he's flying under the radar. He pushes pace, gets fantastic results, and if he can get stronger with better linemates and finishing ability on his own, he could be a steal.
I just really like Jake Neighbours' upside. Skill, skating, agility, I'm a fan.
Trust me, everyone. I see your Antonio Stranges gifs, and I've tracked a game of his that was comically lopsided in his favor, but there's something about his game and his data that just... doesn't feel right. He's an effective offensive player, but he's nearly invisible defensively at times, and his skating when not 10-2'ing around is... fine? Maybe I need to just watch more, but I have a hard time bumping him into my 1st round.
The group of Gushchin, Novak, Francis, Pashin, Foerster, Jarvis, Wiesblatt, Farrell and Tullio all fall into the "potentially good complimentary player" category. I love Pashin's talent most of all of them, but guys like Novak, Gushchin, Francis and Foerster can be dangerous any time they step on the ice. I particularly like how Ryan Francis gets around the ice, and if he can get stronger on his feet and keep low to the ice, he could be a real sneaky offensive threat down the line.
Joni Jurmo and Samuel Knazko have been real joys for me to watch in the Finnish junior league. Jurmo stuck out while tracking Juuso Mäenpää a while back, and he's been impressive. Aggressive in the neutral zone, and a wonderful skater for his size with underrated offensive ability on a stacked team. Knazko is much the same, but from my viewing, appears to favor defending the middle of the ice a bit more and using his edgework to create space from forecheckers. I'll need to watch more, but I really like what I see.
Similar to Jurmo/Knazko, I've enjoyed watching William Villeneuve a lot more than some other Sea Dogs players this year. Villeneuve is one of those "safer" defenders who plays smart and creates offense well. He's still up at 24%INV with good even strength results even if he's a bit "safer". He's a player who seems to understand what the situation is while he's playing, rarely making poor decisions and getting around the ice smoothly and effectively. I'm unsure of potential, but he's a highly respectable player to my eye and data.
Lots of people are hyping Michael Benning's production, especially compared to Cale Makar, which certainly stands out to me, but I highly, highly doubt Michael Benning is Cale Makar. There was a ruthless attacking mentality to Cale Makar's game, where Benning is much more of a pace controlling puck mover, but an effective one at that. Similar to Villeneuve, I could see Benning have good puck moving ability and PP upside, but his size and lack of strength can cause issues defensively that might be hidden by playing in the AJHL. He certainly earns himself his share of controlled offensive entries, and does well to cut play off in the neutral zone, but unless his velocity and edgework comes a step while at college, I think his upside could be somewhat limited. I'm certainly not comfortable dropping him beneath this tier though, so please don't get too upset if you're a fan of his.
Of the 30 players where I've tracked an estimated neutral zone transition velocity, Roby Järventie appears to be the fastest by a wide margin. 45.4 km/h is well ahead of 2nd place, Swedish defender Helge Grans at 40.8 km/h.

Tier 5 - "I Dunno, Maybe?"

This tier is smaller, and there's a breed of player in here that I'm usually against drafting particularly high. Daemon Hunt, Alexander Nikishin, Braden Schneider and Ryan O'Rourke are in here. Big, physical defensemen who can get around the ice okay. I do like Schneider, but he's nearly a 2019 eligible. I haven't liked what I've seen of Ryan O'Rourke and I think his team masks his issues moving pucks and skating around the ice, but he has gotten results thus far. Nikishin has some nice hands for a defender, but he's hard to get a read on playing solid KHL minutes but seems a bit overwhelmed with the pace of the game most times I've seen him.
Kasper Puutio is a guy I've liked. His team in Swift Current is... not great. He has some moments where I find him impressive, somewhat reminding me of Ville Heinola from 2019. He's a good two-way player who can cut play off in the neutral zone well, but I'm not sure of his real upside.
Ville Ottavainen is a big defender who I love to watch skate around the ice. He might end up higher in my rankings this year due to his two-way numbers and his skating ability, but I'll need to see more.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov is my mini-Marat. A guy who I love to watch play who might need better linemates to really show what he can do. He's a great skater who can weave through the neutral zone and get to dangerous areas, while also being a good perimeter player willing to set plays up off the boards and making intelligent defensive reads from time to time. I really like what I see from him and over time he could become a nice offensive leaning two-way energy winger.
I've really liked Colby Ambrosio with Tri-City. He's an effective piece of a team that isn't where it was last year. Good young skater with good scoring instincts and a 30%+INV in the USHL, which is usually a pretty good benchmark.

Honourable Mentions

Jake Sanderson and Luke Tuch are two guys who just missed the cut. I like Sanderson's skating, but he's a long term project with nothing much to show for this year. Tuch, I'm just not sure. On that note, I've really enjoyed watching Eamon Powell play.
I need to see more of Jack Thompson and Théo Rochette.
Will Cuylle should probably be in here, but I haven't noticed him on the ice when I've caught Windsor games and his metrics are poor.
Nick Malik is a not-small goalie playing against men and doing well. That checks a few boxes.
Lukas Svejkovsky is a fun player to watch who gets great results. I've got an eye on him a bit.
Russian names like Pavel Tyutnev, Maxim Beryozkin, Maxim Nevolin and overagers Takhir Mingachyov, Danil Alalykin have all stood out to me for various reasons, especially Tyutnev playing bottom-6 minutes with Loko Yaroslavl.
Victor Mancini appears to be getting decent minutes, and all of his points are primary points at even strength and he's up near a 100% TotCat% on a stacked team. Frölunda's U20 team scores 5.6 even strength goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. That is really something and worth keeping an eye on.
I probably dislike your favourite players.

Closing Thoughts

So that's that. The first few tiers that are increasingly likely to change the further down you go. Lots of names I've laid eyes on but haven't tracked, lots of names I have data on but haven't laid eyes on, and there's still lots of hockey left to play. I'm only really confident in my Top-40 or so with room for more players in that group over time. This is an imperfect science, but all we're trying to do is cut through biases and isolate good players who carry value that is beyond that typically available at any team's given pick. I certainly over time have evolved my tastes to prefer a certain brand of play, and hopefully that's on display in these rankings and with the data I track that will be publicly released around draft time.

If you've made it this far, thank you all so much for your support through the last 15 months as we've seen this platform grow significantly. This work is a joy to put together. These kids are chasing their dreams, and all we can do is sit and watch, but boy is it ever fun to watch. In my dreams, I'm drafting some of these guys into my own program, but until then, I have you, the reader, so thank you.

The next rankings are likely out in January or Februrary, depending on how confident I'm feeling on a given week.

Become a Patron!

0 Comments

Scouching's Final 2019 Draft Rankings

6/3/2019

1 Comment

Welcome to the final Scouching Rankings for the 2019 NHL Draft. If you haven't viewed the accompanying video profiling the higher end of the rankings, be sure to click here and check it out!

As always, thank you all for the support through the year. I think the season was a huge building block for the project and I can't wait to see where we're at in 2020 and beyond. Without you, the reader, none of this would be possible.

This ranking outlines some of the important metrics I track over the year in the Prospect Tracker, so if you need a refresher on what these numbers mean, look no further:

DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
NHLeS - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of >20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.

A Brief Note: There are no goalies in this ranking, mostly because they seem to be evaluated on a different plane than skaters, but in short, based on what I've seen with my eyes, Spencer Knight, Pyotr Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Konovalov, Isaiah Saville, Taylor Gauthier, Trent Miner, Erik Portillo and Hunter Jones are a "Top-10" set of goaltenders that I'd have my eye on for varying reasons. Amir Miftakhov is a curious one as well, just off of how many pucks he faced in a pro men's league and his remarkable athleticism.

Tier I - Hughes v. Kakko

Let's make this clear up front. Jack Hughes is the #1 prospect in this draft. At the same time, this does not mean there isn't a discussion to be had. Both players bring different traits to the game, but the traits Hughes brings are rarer, and likely more beneficial to pushing play positively when it matters most.
Hughes is a phenomenal skater who is a puck rushing monster with exceptional vision in the offensive zone.
Kakko brings an advantage in terms of his play along the boards, resiliency with the puck, and his track record of producing at a high level in a very difficult league, and he will be a very nice consolation prize at #2 for the Rangers.
I believe both players could be viewed similarly in a few years in terms of on-ice impact, but the tools Hughes brings to the table is something every team could always use more of, but comes at a cost most teams are unwilling to pay.
Hughes with Taylor Hall for the next season at the least gives me anxiety.

Tier II

This is a group that separated themselves more and more over the year to me. Byram and Turcotte appear to be isolating themselves at 3/4 in the public sphere, but you could make the case that any of these players have the talent to go in any order at these picks.
Kirby Dach is bar none my favourite player in this draft to watch play not named Kakko or Hughes. His combination of creativity, skill, power, and the ease with which he plays the game is just wonderful to watch, and his ceiling could lead him to be on a similar level to Hughes and Kakko, but he really needs to capture his play at it's best more often. Going over 20% of the season with a 0.2 points per game scoring rate isn't going to take you far, but I'm more than optimistic.
I was a Podkolzin doubter, but I see the appeal after digging in deeper. Remarkable ferocity to his game, forces his opposition to make a play, and moves pucks up the ice remarkably, but I'm skeptical of his upside.
Arthur Kaliyev here might surprise folks, but the more I watch, the more I actually really like. He strikes me as a Patrik Laine-esque player, just with a more varied offensive skillset, minus the A+++ shot. Kaliyev isn't the sexiest player in transition, but around the net, he can be gross. His hands are exceptional. His vision is underrated. His swagger factor is through the roof. The only thing that could hold him back is what's between his ears. He'll probably slip quite far due to perceived motivational issues and his position, but I think he can hang with this group.
The Cole Caufield hype train is in full force. He continued to improve all year and could be a remarkable goal scorer in the NHL. I think he brings more to the game than an Alex DeBrincat, especially when it comes to his mobility and puck skill, but there are legitimate questions surrounding his play in his own end, but when push comes to shove, he does the hardest thing in hockey really, really well.

Tier III

These are guys I see as interesting prospects that could be useful players one day, but may have lower ceilings, or riskier high ceilings.
It's no secret that I'm a huge Bobby Brink fan. His team's scoring dropped by 50% without him in the lineup. A year ago, he was nowhere to be found. Yes, his skating is poor, but his approach to the game, his two-way metrics, and his ability to dance with the puck in tight areas indicate that if his skating can come a few strides, he could be a massive, massive steal.
Ryan Suzuki is very much a perimeter player, but Joe Veleno has some very similar looking metrics last year, and he's turned out okay. Suzuki has the talent to be an aggressive attacking offensive player, and all the creativity you could want, but it seems he's reluctant to jump into dangerous areas. With some strength on his frame, he could be special, even if he strays more to the outside of the ice quarterbacking an offense.
Connor McMichael has all the speed he could ever want, but doesn't use it a ton and seems a bit inefficient in generating that speed. Do I care? Not really. The guy might need to turn it up a notch in his own end, but getting to dangerous areas and scoring no-BS points is his game, and you can never have enough of that on your team.
Nicholas Robertson is small, but very young for the draft, and I've come away impressed every time. He has remarkable puck skill, vision and skating ability, but is another perimeter player who played a lot more wing than centre, and his deeper metrics were "fine". My eyes tell me there's a number of higher gears for him to hit, and he was highly consistent all year, so I'm hopeful for Robertson moving forward.
I honestly have no idea where Moritz Seider's career is heading, but I like his combination of skills. I think there are players with more tangible upside, but if I had multiple first rounders this year, I could easily take a swing and see what happens.
Bjornfot, Broberg and Soderstrom. Three very different players, three different levels of upside. I think Broberg could end up being the best of the three based on his mobility, power and puck protection ability, but there's a ways to go with him. Decisionmaking and puck movement are issues that will need fixing. Bjornfot has been a favourite of mine all year and he could have great offensive potential. Soderstrom is probably the likeliest of all to work out as a responsible two-way minutes eater, but I don't see a huge ceiling there.

Tier IV

Now we're in the real nitty gritty. This is a massive group that I think has a lot of really, really interesting talent available.
Artemi Knyazev is an exceptional skater with great offensive ability and he improved in the back half of the season, nearly doubling his NHLeS in the process.
I really like Matthew Robertson's tools, but his numbers don't jump out at you. I think there's a really nice defender there, but I'm not sure what the ceiling is there.
Jamieson Rees and Albin Grewe are just so much fun to watch. They play hard, they play with skill, they come at you at all times and I've come to really love that style of play, so long as the play doesn't get carried away, can actually score points, and don't put themselves in bad positions when things don't go their way.
My thoughts on Ethan Keppen, Zac Jones and Dom Fensore are well documented and could be steals, Fensore especially. You can't hit what you can't catch, and Fensore is probably the 2nd best skater on the USA U-18 team behind Jack Hughes to my eyes.
I was fully expecting Yegor Serdyuk to be underwhelming based on what I had heard through the grapevine, but after a few viewings, I think he's tremendously undervalued. His skating is solid, he can protect a puck well, his skill is solid, and I saw him attempt dangerous plays time after time that could have been great opportunities for his teammates.
I've always really liked John Beecher. Big centre who can skate and rough it up along the boards to free up pucks and make a play. Not sure there's tremendous offensive upside there, but with some good linemates, he could be a very interesting player.
Leevi Aaltonen is one of my favourites in this range to watch. Tremendous skater who I found begging to play a more aggressive game. He's truly gifted with his feet, and is more than willing to shoot or pass to put points up, but his shots come from a ways out more often than you'd like. The tools are there, the metrics are there, and if he gets a bit more confidence, look out.
If Nikita Alexandrov were a day older, he'd be a 2018 eligible. As basically a D+1, his production wasn't great, but he's devastating around the net and plays hard with some solid skill. Might be a low ceiling, but he plays the game right and could chip in sooner than some others in this range.
Lassi Thomson always struck me as "Evan Bouchard but not as good", and to have Evan Bouchard's profile and be successful, you almost need to be as good as Evan Bouchard is. Thomson's skating isn't fantastic, but he can really crank it from the point, and he does it often. His team wasn't great, but his two-way metrics look solid. He might be gone after round one, but if he starts slipping deeper into the 2nd, I could certainly take the chance.
People are labeling Patrik Puistola as a potential steal, and I could see it. There are flashes of a real skilled scoring winger. He might be a complimentary player in the NHL, but I could easily see him in any NHL jersey contributing offensively if he captures his best traits more often.

Tier V

These are the real interesting guys who I swing on in the middle rounds.
Jayden Struble is an offensive defender I think could be ranked even higher. I'm a big fan of his skating and skill, but I'm just skeptical of prep players based on my viewings. It's just so hard to gauge their actual talent when the quality of their games is simply a few steps below most other major junior leagues. Almost the same situation as John Farinacci from my viewings. Great skaters, great tools, tons of production, but what happens at the next level?
Albert Johansson has great offensive tools, but his defensive play and decision making needs work. Tailed off quite a bit down the back half of the year as well.
Marshall Warren is almost certainly gone by the 3rd round, but I really like his power and skating on his feet. Not sure of what his upside is, but he had some really nice flashes in my time watching that team.
Lucas Feuk stands out in a number of ways on paper, similar to Linus Karlsson last year, but I'll admit I haven't seen a tremendous amount of him.
Kim Nousiainen breaks the 25%INV threshold for defenders that I value quite a bit, and I think that is worth swinging on singlehandedly. I liked his U18, but his metrics are what stick out to me.
Mattias Norlinder has really caught on in recent months and I certainly think I had nothing to do with it, but I've been a fan of his for a while this year, especially once he hit the Allsvenskan. Great skater with great hands and is a lot of fun to watch.

The "Who Knows" Watchlist

I've been a fan of Joe Garreffa for a few years now and he continues to produce. More of an offensive waterbug who may have more PP upside than anything, he brings great energy, great pace, and great offensive ability, and late in the draft he could easily be an overage swing someone takes.
Part of me still believes in Blake Murray's goal scoring. A player I wanted to dig into more and expected more from, he should still be picked as a "we'll see" player. I'm still not sure.
Pontus Englund is an analytical darling from the Swedish U20 league, and he's off to Liiga powerhouse KalPa next year. The guy scored a ton on a bad team, and can absolutely smash pucks from the blueline.
Really liked Simon Gnyp's offensive play at the U18s, but he's a long term project.
Nathan Staios would be a pick solely on his skating and offensive play. He needs work in his own end, and taking his overall game to another level, but his motor and fluidity are excellent.
Rtishchev, Lisin, Fyodorov, Ogirchuk and Komissarov are all great fun overagers I enjoyed watching out of Russia this year, and Chistyakov could be the Alex Romanov of 2019. Great skater who can pass pucks effectively.
Mike Koster is here solely due to his metrics. They're insane. He's way down my board because I've never been impressed with him unless he's at the blueline and making a play from there. His mobility isn't great and Rhett Pitlick always impressed me more.
Cooper Moore is a defender with a 35% involvement at prep school, not the highest level of hockey that I find hard to gauge, but those numbers are interesting and he could be one to keep an eye on.

Final Thoughts

This year's draft to me is characterized by a ton of different players from a variety of different backgrounds. I'm not quite sure of how much Grade-A Talent will be coming out of this draft, but the USA National Program was one of the greatest teams I've ever seen play at this level, and I'm fascinated at where these guys may end up. Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are extremely high level talents that should contribute immediately, but beyond that, how you develop these players will be vital. I do strongly believe that once you pass the 2nd round, you could come away with a lot of very interesting prospects at every pick. There are enigmas everywhere, and there could be some great players to come out of places in this draft that you wouldn't expect.

With this article, the pre-draft coverage from Scouching is complete. There will be a post-draft video coming, and be sure to tune in to Scouching's inaugural mock draft, Wednesday, June 19th at 9:30EST, and definitely check out Scouch's Draftathon Friday, June 21st at 7:30PM, as well as Saturday, June 22nd at 10:30AM, where we'll be tracking all 7 rounds live. If you can, donations collected during the streams will go to the YouCanPlay Project, so be sure to come see what we're up to!

Thank you all, if you're a Twitter follower, YouTube subscriber, or a Patreon supporter, it all means the world to me. We'll be back in 2019-20 bigger and better than ever for what looks to be the best draft I've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.

1 Comment

The 2019 Scouching Mock Draft

6/3/2019

0 Comments

The Recap

Gut 1 - New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes - C
Brain 1 - New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes - C

Gut 2 - New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain 2 - New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko - RW

Gut 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte - C
Brain 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte - C

Gut 4 - Colorado Avalanche - Kirby Dach - C
Brain 4 - Colorado Avalanche - Kirby Dach

Gut 5 - Los Angeles Kings - Dylan Cozens - C
Brain 5 - Los Angeles Kings - Bowen Byram - D

Gut 6 - Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain 6 - Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras - C/W

Gut 7 - Buffalo Sabres - Bowen Byram - D
Brain 7 - Buffalo Sabres - Dylan Cozens - C

Gut 8 - Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain 8 - Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs - LW

Gut 9 - Anaheim Ducks - Vasili Podkolzin - RW
Brain 9 - Anaheim Ducks - Alex Newhook - C

Gut 10 - Vancouver Canucks - Alex Newhook - C
Brain 10 - Vancouver Canucks - Cole Caufield - C/LW

Gut 11 - Philadelphia Flyers - Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain 11 - Philadelphia Flyers - Vasili Podkolzin - RW

Gut 12 - Minnesota Wild - Spencer Knight - G
Brain 12 - Minnesota Wild - Ryan Suzuki - C

Gut 13 - Florida Panthers - Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain 13 - Florida Panthers - Arthur Kaliyev - RW

Gut 14 - Arizona Coyotes - Cam York - D
Brain 14 - Arizona Coyotes - Matthew Boldy - LW

Gut 15 - Montreal Canadiens - Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain 15 - Montreal Canadiens - Cam York - D

After publishing this first version, I realize I totally left out Cole Caufield from the gut picks until 16. My hunch is that his size was a factor because NHL, but it seems teams are seeing the forest through the trees on him. I would bet Caufield is gone by the time the 10th pick is made, but he is very tiny, so you never know.

Let's cut right to the chase. Congratulations to the St. Louis Blues/Boston Bruins for their wonderful Stanley Cup victory yadda yadda yadda. Here's the rest of the mock draft!

#16 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Cole Caufield - RW
Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

Gutsplanation: Honestly if the draft allows Cole Caufield to fall to 16, I may need to move to Colorado. He's only gotten more and more attention from teams down the stretch after a record-setting U18 tournament, but his size may push him a bit further than he should go. It's extremely unlikely and a great example of how narratives can shift.
Brainsplanation: I see this pick as Colorado's "found wallet" pick, and I think they value the analytics that favour Brink. They can afford to be patient while he sorts out the skating, but I love the intensity and attitude he brings to the game. His skill, vision and goal scoring ability are all exceptional, and if he can figure out his top speed, he could be a huge steal. You usually can't screw up at 4th overall, so you may as well swing at 16.

#17 - Vegas Golden Knights
Gut: Tobias Björnfot - D
Brain: Ville Heinola - D

Gutsplanation: I see a number of defensemen coming off the board in middle of the round. The top end is full of centres and skilled wingers, but there are many solid defensemen available that should be available in this range. The Golden Knights have a relatively strong prospect pipeline, even if they lack the high end potential of NIck Suzuki and Erik Brannström. I think Vegas heads to Sweden and takes a potential offensive defenseman in Björnfot. His skating is solid, he's willing to shoot, and his two-way play is well refined. Of all the defenders available here, he may have the best combination of a reliably solid floor with a reasonably high ceiling. I also wonder about Erik Brannström's former teammate Simon Holmström and Vegas.
Brainsplanation: While Björnfot is a solid pick, I've really liked Heinola the more I've watched of him. He produced well in the FInnish Liiga, he was reliable for his age in both ends, and he has some really interesting skill. Vegas has never dipped into Finland, but Heinola could be a good start.

#18 - Dallas Stars
Gut: Ville Heinola - D
Brain: Connor McMichael - C

Gutsplanation: I'm a fan of Heinola and I think it's perfectly possible Dallas goes back to Finland and drafts the slippery two-way defender. I think there's a lot of potential with Heinola if his skating can take a step, and considering the lengths his game has gone this year, that could be a good bet.
Brainsplanation: McMichael might be one of the more underrated offensive centres in this draft. He led the London Knights in scoring and made his play in the offensive zone look effortless. He can make a play as well as he scores goals, he gets a ton of chances from dangerous areas, and he often flashes his speed in transition. He was somewhat inconsistent, especially in his own end, but he has some real upside that could round out some excellent centre depth in Dallas down the road.

#19 - Ottawa Senators
Gut: Moritz Seider - D
Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

Gutsplanation: Seider is probably the biggest wild card and I have zero clue what he could turn into. He's a big, right hand shot with good mobility and played against men full time. He shined in the World Juniors Division 1A tournament, and played for his country at the World Championships a month after turning 18. That sounds like a recipe for a defensively shallow NHL team with questionable leadership to give an interesting defender who has a longer resume than most other 1st round picks a heck of an opportunity. I think Seider will need time to develop, but he's got a resume, he's in everyone's mind, and Ottawa needs pretty much anything, and fast.
Brainsplanation: If you want to be patient, which you probably should, Björnfot is a really interesting profile who may not have the resume of Seider, but brings more of an upside that is easier to picture. I like his game in both ends and his willingness to attack the net with his shot.

#20 - New York Rangers
Gut: Philip Broberg - D
Brain: Moritz Seider - D

Gutsplanation: The Rangers took K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist in 2018, and after taking Kappo Kakko and VItali Kravtsov, I would think they "need" a centre more than they "need" another defender, but this is a pick you got for moving Kevin Hayes to the 1st round eliminated Winnipeg Jets. This is found money. I don't think there's anyone left at 20 in this draft with as much raw upside as Broberg. Yes, his defensive play is questionable, his power, skating ability, and passing vision in the neutral and offensive zone could turn him into something quite special. I'm certainly skeptical, but if I'm the Rangers, I aim for the biggest upside, regardless of risk, and if Broberg works, a defense group of Adam Fox, Miller, Broberg, and Lundkvist could be a real pain.
Brainsplanation: In my brain, the thinking is the same. This pick is found money. Take your swing. If Seider is here at 20, he's got more of a different kind of upside. Like Lundkvist, he's mobile and reliable. With his combination of skills, a little patience could do Seider very well.

#21 - Pittsburgh Penguins
Gut: Bobby Brink - RW
Brain: Victor Söderström - D

Gutsplanation: Pittsburgh had four picks in last year's draft. Calen Addison, Filip Hallander, and Justin Almeida being three of them indicates to me that they swing on production, and per-dollar value on the pick. Addison and Hallander had no business falling to where they did in 2018, and I believe Brink is in the same boat. He's feisty, skilled, and just gets the job done. The Penguins have developed winger after winger into guys who get the job done, and Brink could be the best one yet. Brink brings tremendous value at 21, and I imagine Jim Rutherford isn't too concerned with his skating considering some of the names he's brought into Pittsburgh.
Brainsplanation: I'm a big Victor Söderström fan, especially when it comes to his skating and reliability. I just don't feel there's a huge ceiling there. A lot of the higher ceiling players are gone before this pick, but Söderström does bring value at #21. His mobility hints at upside, but his production hasn't been great, and I haven't been tremendously impress in my viewings with just how exciting of a player he is. I think he's an NHL player one day, but may be more of a reliable minutes eater, which is something the Penguins might like to have on an ELC down the road.

#22 - LA Kings
Gut: Thomas Harley - D
Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

Gutsplanation: I'm much cooler on Harley than most, and I think teams might be spooked by his "just okay" U18 and his metrics in his own end last season with Mississauga. I like his mobility, I like his passing ability, but his decision making can take time, and he can be absent in the defensive end. His offensive metrics are excellent on paper, but much of his production was secondary assists or power play points. There's upside, so LA using their second 1st round pick on a higher upside player seems reasonable.
Brainsplanation: I appreciated Tomasino's game the more I watched him. I don't see huge upside, but I see a maturity and subtlety to his game that you don't often see in guys his age. His scoring rates and impacts on goals for and against were very solid, and I think he fits the Kings' approach to the game well. Solid possession player, responsible on the ice, plays with determination and has offensive ability. Someone like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty make good mentors for Tomasino and Byram after this draft.

#23 - New York Islanders
Gut: Philip Tomasino - C
Brain: Philip Broberg - D

Gutsplanation: Lou Lamoriello went with pure upside last year with Dobson and Wahlstrom, surprising nobody. This year, I feel he's going to go with a more "Lou-esque" pick. Tomasino just feels like a player the Devils would've drafted in the late 1st in years prior. He's responsible, has a good offensive game, and plays a refined style that the Islanders might really like. He doesn't have the upside of a Matt Barzal, but he would be a solid option at 23 with some nice upside.
Brainsplanation: Or Lou could go "full send" and pick the guy dropping down the conventional board. Broberg has huge upside and would be a nice pickup at 23. His mobility and power can excite fans and with solid defense depth on the Island in 2019, he can take his time working out his issues and slowly work his way into the lineup.

#24 - Nashville Predators
Gut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW
Brain: Jakob Pelletier - LW

Gutsplanation: Someone is going to take the risk on the massive upside of Arthur Kaliyev. Somehow I feel that the Predators are going to pull a Tolvanen and go with the Uzbek-American winger. I've really liked Kaliyev the more I've seen and I find the concerns about him somewhat overblown. The only limit will be how far his brain takes him. I don't see him as a quarterback of a line, but as a pure scoring winger, he could be a huge get in Nashville. The organization feels like a fit for Kaliyev's approach to the game and his personality. They might want a defender like Harley here, but I bet Kaliyev would get a good long look here.
Brainsplanation: Nashville seems to like energy guys like Ryan Hartman, and Jakob Pelletier absolutely brings that kind of energy to the game. Playing on a fantastic line in Moncton inflated some scoring on his part, but he was heavily relied upon as an aggressive power winger that reminded me a bit of Brendan Gallagher. He had high and medium shots exceptionally often and could be a very exciting complimentary energy player one day.

#25 - Washington Capitals
Gut: Victor Söderström - D
Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

Gutsplanation: The Capitals drafted Alexander Alexeyev last year, and the cupboard is still quite bare. Söderström brings a higher floor player that Washington could value coming out of this draft. There's higher upside available, but Söderström has nice tools that Washington could mold into a solid two-way defender, especially with names like Nick Jensen sticking around.
Brainsplanation: Upside, Upside, Upside. Robertson was a remarkably consistent scorer in a big role with Peterborough. I love his skill and offensive creativity. He's one of the youngest players available in the draft and had what would have been a top D-1 season if he were less than a week older. I think over time he'll play with a bit more confidence as he gets stronger and older. Washington can afford to be patient, even if their cupboard is relatively bare and Robertson could pay tremendous dividends one day.

#26 - Calgary Flames
Gut: Nicholas Robertson - LW
Brain: Thomas Harley - D

Gutsplanation: The Flames are always drafting skill, and Robertson brings tons. Someone like Connor McMichael or Nils Höglander might be an option here as well, but I think Calgary has really liked the progression their undersized scoring players (Pettersen, Phillips, even Koumontzis) have had, and swinging on more of that with high upside could be an interesting move.
Brainsplanation: For the same reasons as outlined above, and Calgary has developed plenty of defensemen recently. Harley would be in one of the best groups of defenders for a rookie to learn from, and if he irons out his defensive issues, he could be a nice piece of the future.

#27 - Tampa Bay Lightning
Gut: Connor McMichael - C
Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

Gutsplanation: Tampa under Julien Brisbois will be an interesting one to watch as this is his first career first round pick as GM of the Lightning. 2018 second round pick Gabe Fortier was an undersized scoring winger who had a very nice follow-up season with Baie-Comeau, but I feel like they're looking for a centre or a defender here. McMichael feels like the best fit considering his offensive potential and flashes of great speed up the ice.
Brainsplanation: I imagine this pick is traded for cap relief, but who knows. Brisebois could just as easily go with a different variety of scoring winger and head back to Quebec to pick the big heavy offensive winger from Sherbrooke. His team wasn't great, but he kept climbing my board all year. He's got great possession ability and flashes of solid skating, but he plays with a lot of power in his game. He could physically dominate the QMJHL in the next few years, but he doesn't rely solely on his strength to earn his production. I think there's good upside with Poulin, which Tampa is never afraid of, regardless of position.

#28 - Carolina Hurricanes
Gut: Jakob Pelletier - LW
Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

Gutsplanation: Carolina supposedly loves their analytics. Pelletier jumps off the page in the analytics world, even if you control for his line's quality. Might not be the straw that stirs the line's drink, but he plays an important role that I think Don Waddell and other hockey men would really like. He wouldn't be a bad pick here, and Carolina can fit Pelletier in their deep cupboards as a higher floor option that they can be patient with.
Brainsplanation: Carolina suppoesdly loves their analytics. Höglander played in the SHL all year and produced quite well. His skill is gross, his "fun" level on the ice is awesome, and if he's given some time to work out the kinks defensively and push possession a bit better against men, he could be a ton of fun. Carolina does have the option to try and bring Höglander over to the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers immediately a la Martin Necas. I like Höglander a ton, and Carolina taking the chance on his upside would be a very interesting experiment for The Jerks.

#29 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Nils Höglander - LW
Brain: Jamieson Rees - C

Gutsplanation: They swung on a lot of defense in 2018 and swung on another one with Bowen Byram in 2019. I think a high-upside scoring winger could do them well down the line and Höglander fits that. He's skilled, slippery and could be a great player for Jeff Skinner to work with.
Brainsplanation: The Ducks clearly love drafting energy and antagonism. Guys with skill alongside a more aggressive game. Rees is a high skill, high offense centre who plays really hard all of the time. If he can keep his head on straight and play more of a leader's role in Sarnia over time, he could be something. His U18 was excellent and he may go earlier than this pick, but he could be a great swing at 30 for Anaheim.

#30 - Boston Bruins
Gut: Jamieson Rees - C
Brain: Albin Grewe - C/RW

Gutsplanation: The Sabres drafted a ton of big, scary defensemen last year and one actually very good defender in Rasmus Dahlin. They still need more, and with their previous pick being an upside-heavy skilled winger, Johnson sounds like an interesting fit for Buffalo here. He brings a sense of calm and pace to the game and can break up transitions exceptionally well. His scoring rates were good at even strength and I'm excited to see where he goes with his career. He's reliable, has flashes of great mobility, plays with a bit of an edge and has excellent skill for a defender. You could do a lot worse with your third first round pick.
Brainsplanation: He's basically the Swedish Brad Marchand. He's feisty, skilled, and really needs to keep a lid on things staying out of the box. Involved himself in over 35% of Djurgardens' junior team's goals, which was the highest for all draft eligible SuperElit forwards. He was used in a 4th line role in the SHL and showed that he might have been a bit in over his head, but he plays with tremendous energy and brings a nice skillset with him.

#31 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Ryan Johnson - D
Brain: Spencer Knight - G

Gutsplanation: See the above writeup about Rees. He's a perfect fit for the Bruins. It's almost a no-brainer.
Brainsplanation: You know what's better than having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen? Having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Spencer Knight. The Sabres with their two late 1st round picks have a chance to take a swing on the most hyped goaltending prospect available this season. I like Knight's calmness and confidence that he brings to the game, but I'm skeptical of his talent ability. Goaltenders are weird to project however, and while Knight doesn't stop as many pucks as I would hope, with three first round picks, you can afford to take a bit of a risk on the goalie everyone won't stop talking about.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned in the post-lottery mock draft. None of these are likely to actually happen. Teams have a lot going on that we have no idea about, and they all will view players differently. I think finding the right fit is pivotal to success in the 1st round, especially in this year's draft once the twelfth or thirteenth picks go by. This draft feels a bit weaker than usual, but there are certainly interesting risks to take. It'll come down to just how risky teams want to be.

Please let me know how you feel about your favourite team's picks and the analysis behind them!

0 Comments

The 2019 Post-Lottery NHL Mock Draft

4/9/2019

3 Comments

Similar to numerical draft rankings, I'm not the biggest fan of mock drafts, but it seems like it's a rite of passage every year to explore who teams and fans might be looking at with their respective picks. That doesn't mean we can't have a bit of fun with the idea, so I've decided to split this mock draft into two parts: what my gut thinks will happen, and what my brain would do if I were in the same scenario, and each will get their own explanation.

Teams will value skills very differently from one another and there is a ton of time between now and the draft for guys to make the case to move up or down the draft, so that is important to keep in mind as draft day approaches. If your favourite team didn't take your favourite player, that's totally fine and let me know either here on on Twitter! None of this matters anyways!

Without further ado, behold. My Post-Lottery NHL Mock Draft.

#1 - New Jersey Devils
Gut: Jack Hughes - C
Brain: Jack Hughes - C

Gutsplanation: The Devils had their magic number called and as such, jumped from the 3 slot to the 1 slot and get the chance to add a centre who will make their team one of the more threatening down the middle in their division almost overnight. I can't see the Devils looking at Hischier/Zajac/Zacha and passing on the chance to add Jack Hughes to that depth in favour of a likely winger in Kaapo Kakko. Hughes is a phenomenal skater with exceptional playmaking ability who has pro-level transition ability and at the very least will be an extremely effective puck rusher down the middle. Nobody else in the draft gets pucks up the ice as efficiently nor as quickly as Hughes to my eyes, and his ceiling is extremely high as an open-ice speedy playmaker.

Brainsplanation: Not much else to add, but my brain always seems to tell me that you can never have too many centres with ludicrous speed who can rush a puck through the middle of the ice. Everything else is a bonus, and Hughes brings plenty. He does get rubbed off pucks, and he can make the odd poor decision, but his profile leads me to believe that his upside when he's a more mature pro could be the best out of this draft.

#2 - New York Rangers
Gut: Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain: Kaapo Kakko - RW

Gutsplanation: This is a no-brainer. I've been on the "Kakko is almost Hughes" train since November, but I don't think Kakko's potential ability is at the same level as Hughes. Kakko will be a great pro, however. His puck protection ability, his ability to exit and enter zones, and his all-around offensive talent make Kakko a fantastic piece to drop onto the Rangers roster in October. He should be effective immediately, and brings a Forsberg/Jagr-esque power offense to a team that already has Vitalii Kravtsov waiting around. The Rangers may need a centre more, it would be a very hard discussion to see them looking past Kakko.

Brainsplanation: See above. Kakko is good. Kakko is the #2 player available. You can work around the issues down the middle if it means you get Kaapo freaking Kakko. He also strikes me as a great fit with for David Quinn.

#3 - Chicago Blackhawks
Gut: Alex Turcotte - C
Brain: Alex Turcotte - C

Gutsplanation: Vasili Podkolzin was my first thought here, especially since there are connections to SKA St. Petersburg after their Andrei Altybarmakyan pick in 2017. On the other hand, Chicago has had a trend of drafting analytics-based picks and are likely looking to improve sooner rather than later, a scenario which Podkolzin doesn't really fit into as he hasn't had the club production you'd like, and his future in North America is murky at best. Turcotte is from the area, and his archetype really seems like it would suit the Blackhawks future as their core ages. Turcotte brings fantastic puck skills and a great two-way game that I think is really valuable in the NHL. He makes his linemates better, and while I'm not always the biggest fan of "two-way" or "all-around" players this high without a gamebreaking level of speed, Turcotte bucks that trend. He just seems to play the game the right way; hard on pucks, using teammates effectively, getting to the net, using skill to create space, and wins more puck battles than he loses. Turcotte is likely a year away, but being slotted in behind Jonathan Toews above Dylan Strome in 2020-21 is extremely enticing.

Brainsplanation: See above. The analytical case for Turcotte is extremely compelling, and part of me wants my brain to put Kirby Dach here based on what I've seen, but Chicago seems willing to sacrifice players with more flair to their game in favor of players with a more intelligent, responsible and simple streak to their game. Turcotte should be a fantastic and versatile centre who could be a great piece to add to a future that contains names like Barratt, Kurashev, and Nordgren.

#4 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Kirby Dach - C
Brain: Kirby Dach - C

Gutsplanation: With the options available here, I'm imagining Colorado with MacKinnon and Kirby Dach not far behind him. Dach is a great skater with a ton of skill for someone his size. His puck protection ability is excellent as well, and I think the case for a top-level goal scoring center is there in spades. My gut tells me that the potential 1/2 punch will be too tempting to pass up and the final piece from the Duchene trade will be in place.

Brainsplanation: While Dach's analytical profile isn't as enticing as Dylan Cozens, I believe the upside is higher for Dach at the next level. Cozens seems to get away with producing on the back of his size and strength, where Dach brings a speed and skill level that I haven't seen as much of out of Cozens. Cozens has better two-way play, but I'm always going to fall on the side of swinging on skill and speed in 2019, especially with a package as rare as Dach's.

#5 - Los Angeles Kings
Gut: Dylan Cozens - C
Brain: Bowen Byram - D

Gutsplanation: Cozens just seems like a perfect fit for the Kings. Playing behind Anze Kopitar is certainly a good place for him to learn how to play a 200-foot game, and it really seems like Kings hockey is based on possession and control rather than speed and skill. With other centres like Jarret Anderson-Dolan, Rasmus Kupari, Akil Thomas and hopefully Gabe Vilardi on the way, the future looks a lot brighter in LA with Cozens if they want to keep playing traditionally "Kings"-brand hockey.

Brainsplanation: Finally. A disagreement. If I'm the LA Kings, I'm a little bit more concerned with my ability to push pace in games, and I also am a bit concerned that I have one really notable defense prospect in Kale Clague. The Kings need a lot, and Byram is the only defender who can really hold a candle to the ridiculous 2018 crop of defenseman that went in the 1st round. If you need a defender here, Byram is your guy, and I'm pretty certain that he's one of the Top-5 players overall, so it isn't really much of a reach to go out and get him here. Tons of offensive involvement, and his defensive metrics came a long way over the year, pulling himself from a negative Cat% to a +75% since the World Juniors. Cozens may be more of the same, but Byram brings more upside and brings something in the way of speed and aggression to the game the Kings could really use.

#6 - Detroit Red Wings
Gut: Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain: Trevor Zegras - C/W

Gutsplanation: Detroit snagged Zadina, Berggren, and Veleno last year. Skill, skill, and skill. Zegras would be more of the same, and brings a level of puck skill you can never have enough of. Zegras has impressed me more and more over the year with his vision and passing ability. Similar to Turcotte, and not far behind him in raw talent, Zegras brings an agility to the game with a level of flair that not many else have. He can make any offensive-zone situations very dangerous very quickly, and even if he becomes a full time winger, the idea of him on a line with Mike Rasmussen parked in front of the net sounds very much not fun for opponents to counter.

Brainsplanation: Once again, no real disagreement between the brain and guts on this one. Zegras isn't far back from Turcotte, but I'm pretty confident that his upside as an offensive playmaker could make him a more exciting player for Red Wings fans to watch. Detroit seems to love swinging big on players like Zegras, and they've had no shortage of time to watch him play. After some time, he could be a really solid piece up front for the Red Wings.

#7 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Bowen Byram - D
Brain - Dylan Cozens - C

Gutsplanation: The defense group in Buffalo is still simply not good enough, even with Rasmus Dahlin, but Byram gives them a pure offensive weapon that could give the Sabres an excellent 1/2 punch to go along with a pretty deep group of young players at the forward position. Byram improved steadily over the year and improved greatly in his own end, but his best asset is his aggressiveness in the offensive zone and crossing the offensive blueline with the puck. He may be a little ways away, but Buffalo would do well to swing big at a position they could further improve on top of Dahlin.

Brainsplanation: With Byram gone at 5, I can see Buffalo going for a centre, and Cozens is likely the best all-around centre still available on paper to me. Cozens brings a ton in all areas of the ice and could slot in as a solid middle-six centre with Casey Mittelstadt behind Jack Eichel. Cozens gives Buffalo plenty of flexibility and the argument could be made that he gets a tryout period with the Sabres in sheltered minutes. You can never have too many centres, and the Sabres could use a bit more size down the middle down the line. Cozens gives them something they lost when they traded Ryan O'Reilly, and he could help solidify the depth in the lineup in both the near and far future.

#8 - Edmonton Oilers
Gut: Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain: Peyton Krebs - LW

Gutsplanation: In both cases, Dach and Cozens are off the board at this point. You never want to draft on need, but there's an argument to be had that the player with the highest upside is Peyton Krebs. A crafty playmaker with good puck skill on a very bad Kootenay Ice team, Krebs may quickly become a piece on the Oilers roster with names like Yamamoto, Bouchard, Benson and Marody to help get that team out of the basement and hopefully stay out of it. It's hard to pass up, even with Podkolzin still available in both cases. The Oilers need to improve, and they could use a pure winger with skill and scoring ability, which Krebs brings.

Brainsplanation: See above. It just feels like a match. Alex Newhook could be an interesting option, but he likely needs a longer development time, and the Oilers simply can't afford to be patient, and Krebs is certainly no slouch relative to Newhook.

#9 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Vasili Podkolzin - LW
Brain: Alex Newhook - C

Gutsplanation: Podkolzin and the Ducks seem like a match. They've got Max Jones and Maxime Comtois, and with the power, speed, skill, and tenacity that Podkolzin brings, the Ducks seem like a fit for Podkolzin. I find Podkolzin to be overrated by many, mostly due to his one-dimensional play and lack of production in leagues he should be dominating, but his ability to score goals and use his body positioning at high speed to get to high danger areas is certainly worthy of a pick at #9. He may be a few years away, but I feel that the rebuilding is only beginning in Anaheim and they can afford to be (and should be) somewhat patient with where their team is going.

Brainsplanation: Yes, I just said Podkolzin has every reason to go here, but my brain just can't pull the trigger when a multifaceted transition centre is on the board in Alex Newhook. I'm a big Newhook fan, and he'll need time to hone his shortcomings, but his skating, puckhandling ability, and offensive versatility are extremely good and bode very well for his future. He's the player that reminds me most of a B-level Jack Hughes in this draft, and if you want a centre who can get pucks up ice at high speeds, Newhook is a great option at #10.

#10 - Vancouver Canucks
Gut: Alex Newhook - C
Brain: Cole Caufield - C/LW

Gutsplanation: Vancouver seems to really like drafting skilled players high, with Hughes, Boeser, and Pettersson being their most recent 1st rounders. Vancouver surprised many this year, but I'm not sure they're going to add anyone who immediately would jump straight to the NHL reliably here, and playing the waiting game with Newhook could pay in spades down the line. Pettersson/Horvat/Newhook sounds pretty spooky to me come 2021 or so, and I would expect the Canucks to be more than familiar with him already as he's been in their backyard for two seasons now.

Brainsplanation: I think Cole Caufield is one of the most underrated players in the draft if not the most. Everyone keeps saying "Alex DeBrincat this, Alex DeBrincat that", but I frankly think Caufield brings more to the game than DeBrincat does. He has a speed, shiftiness, and puck control ability that DeBrincat doesn't, from what I've seen. He improved over the year, and while he has defensive shortcomings, that part of the game isn't the most important for a player like him. Caufield is a dangerous puck protector with a lightning quick shot an a penchant for getting to the net when he doesn't have the puck. I think he's right there with Vasili Podkolzin as the best player available at 10, but I don't think Vancouver is willing to wait for Podkolzin, and Caufield might be a one-and-done before putting on a Canucks jersey in a year's time.

#11 - Philadelphia Flyers
Gut: Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain: Vasili Podkolzin - LW

Gutsplanation: I've heard the Flyers need a scoring winger. Boldy at 11 is arguably the one that fits their perceived culture change best. There's a new regime in Philadelphia, and it sounds like they want to be the Big Bad Flyers again. That doesn't scream "Cole Caufield" to me, and Boldy just feels like a guy who would make a great flyer one day. He's a gritty, smart winger who wins plenty of puck battles and always seems to find space in the offensive zone. I'm not totally certain there's massive upside, but Boldy has a projectable game that suits the Philadelphia archetype best.

Brainsplanation: I highly doubt Podkolzin slips to 11, but he'd be certainly the guy I look at over Matt Boldy. I think the patience of letting him develop in Russia is something Philadelphia can afford to have. They won't be as bad as they were this year (one would hope), and Podkolzin at 11 would be a great pickup if nobody else decides to risk a high If Podkolzin can improve his team play, there could be a fantastic two-way weapon there that would be worth waiting for.

#12 - Minnesota Wild
Gut: Spencer Knight - G
Brain: Ryan Suzuki - C

Gutsplanation: The Wild under Paul Fenton went totally off the board last year taking Filip Johansson, who has not been great. They then selected Jack McBain who also has not been great. These two picks are heavy, big, "hockey men", and while Spencer Knight isn't that, the Wild's only goaltending prospect of note is Kappo Kahkonen, and while he has been a capable AHL goalie, I don't imagine he's seen to be a sure fire goaltender of the future. Spencer Knight just screams a "character hockey player" pick with tons of pedigree, and would fill a need that, if it works out, could be a rock solid foundation to rebuild the team around over the next few seasons. I don't think the Wild are set for success, so patience while Knight develops could make their lives much easier when it comes time to play a starting goaltender. Would I make this call? No. But the Wild love their U.S. program guys, the Wild love guys who have the right mindset for the game, and the Wild will certainly need goaltending in a few years. One thing that has struck me about Knight is just how calm he constantly is in net. I know nothing about developing goaltenders, and I certainly value goalies who stop more than 90% of shots with the 2019 US U-18 program in front of him, but I think Knight is a goaltender who exudes and radiates confidence, and I think that will take him quite a ways.

Brainsplanation: If I'm running the Wild, I would think the best pick here is a project I can let develop for a few years while I slowly reconstruct the NHL team. In terms of pure upside, Ryan Suzuki fits that mold really well. You can never have enough centres, and Suzuki brings a fantastic level of skill and speed to the position that I really like. Boldy would be my other option here, but I think there's just a higher ceiling in Suzuki's game, and usually ties go to the middle of the ice. Suzuki was part of an exclusive club crossing 100% Tot.Cat%, indicating the percentage increase in total goal differential relative to his teammates, and while his primary involvement lagged behind his total point involvement, his playing style lends itself to seeing that improve in the next year or two in the OHL. He may take time, but it's a swing I'd be willing to take here.

#13 - Florida Panthers
Gut: Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain: Arthur Kaliyev - RW

Gutsplanation: I literally just waxed poetic about Ryan Suzuki, but the Panthers have gone for huge skill at every 1st round pick since 2016. Suzuki is the biggest pure skill pick on the board here and while Arthur Kaliyev is on the board, I'm unsure Dale Tallon is one for skilled players who tend to not move around the ice with a certain level of "gusto". Suzuki certainly gets you out of your seat and as with the previous notes on him, ties usually go to the middle of the ice. Yes, they might need a defenseman, but that's an NHL team problem that can't be solved through the draft immediately. I would imagine every defender available around here is at least two years away from NHL contribution. If they want a defender, landing one through giving up this pick would be my route. You can also find good value in defenders later on in this draft, in my opinion.

Brainsplanation: On the other hand, Dale Tallon and others might be wrong and Arthur Kaliyev could be a disgusting teammate for a group consisting of Barkov, Huberdeau, Dadonov, Trocheck Tippett, and Borgstrom in 2020. I see a bit of Phil Kessel's brain in Kaliyev. I can see why he might drive some people nuts, but I think it's misguided and misses just how talented he is. His shot is excellent, and his intelligence in the offensive zone is such that he can identify open space quickly, get set up, and get a shot off before anyone figures out what he's up to. He capitalizes on the chances he gets and has a great scoring touch, be it off a shot of his own, or as a primary assist off a pass. Kaliyev trails only Bobby Brink in even strength primary involvement percentage with 31.2%, and is the only player in the entire CHL over 40%INV. Yes, his intensity level might need to come up if he's to find real NHL success, but on talent alone, there's an intelligent scoring forward who has a great set of skills to build on and he will be the only thing that holds him back.

#14 - Arizona Coyotes
Gut: Cam York - D
Brain: Matthew Boldy - LW

Gutsplanation: I feel like Cam York is misjudged by the hockey media. I don't see him as an offensive defenseman as much as a two-way pace-controlling defender who has the capability of jumping into a rush and participating offensively. He can quarterback a power play just fine, but his best assets are in how he can stifle rushes with his stick and calmly move pucks around the ice. You can't have enough defenders with that profile, if you ask me, and his mobility up the ice certainly can take him a long way. I think Arizona's analytics team would like to add a talent like York to build with, especially as their defense group ages. York may take time to develop his offensive tools, as well as refine his defensive positioning, but I think he'll be a useful piece down the line.

Brainsplanation: Simply put, Boldy is the best player available at 14 based on who's taken. The Coyotes have quite a few B-level scoring wingers, but Boldy slipping here would be a great chance to add someone with a lot of upside to become a smart, skilled power winger that I feel Rick Tocchet will really like working with so long as he's employed by the Coyotes. Boldy just seems to "get it" when he plays and seems to find himself earning and creating dangerous offensive chances. The defensive numbers could be better, but you can let him develop, keep improving the team, and hope that the Coyotes start the season on time in 2019-20.

#15 - Montreal Canadiens
Gut: Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain: Cam York - D

Gutsplanation: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Montreal kid going at 15 to Montreal, I know. While this may be convenient, it certainly would be quite the story. Montreal hasn't gone with a French 1st round pick Louis LeBlanc in 2009, but I feel that Lavoie has what it takes to be a solid Canadien. He's older for the draft class, and his production lags behind other QMJHL players such as Samuel Poulin and Jakob Pelletier, but Lavoie's size and pedigree might be something Montreal would want to swing on. A massive playoff performance also certainly helps. I think Lavoie could be a solid middle six forward with centre potential on a team that could use another centre down the line. My brain wouldn't put him this high, but Marc Bergevin is full of surprises, and with a team that barely missed the NHL, they might be looking for an older player that could step in for at least a tryout next year. Who knows, if they really want someone who can slot in, do they jump at the chance to get WHL standout Brett Leason? (probably not, but weeeee).

Brainsplanation: If they really wanted a French player, I'd probably look at Samuel Poulin first, but I think the Habs value players with solid responsible all-around play in both ends and are more than willing to pull talent from anywhere. Part of me thought Victor Soderstrom would be the guy here, but I think they really like how their recent American picks have developed, and with Cam York still available, York would bring a relatively responsible two way game to a backend that could use another good defense prospect. York is great in transition but will need to work on his play when pucks are hemmed in his own zone, and I think he'll learn how to play more than hard enough with the coaching staff and group of teammates the Canadiens have assembled for him when he's ready.

Final Things

I don't know what's going to happen on draft day, and things get wild and crazy between now and then anyways. I'm certainly curious about what's going to happen. Teams will jump to draft their guys, teams will take risks, teams will hit home runs, and teams will make blatant mistakes. All it takes is for a player to be #2 on a few teams lists in order to see yourself drop like a rock. It happened above for me with guys like Matt Boldy and Vasili Podkolzin, but it certainly isn't a death sentence for their careers. It's important to keep that in mind as a fan of this wonderful sport, and just enjoy the information presented. Be excited for the guys your team puts their faith in and hope that they handle their development well, because there's nothing better than seeing athletes follow and achieve their dreams, even if your team is run by insane people.

The rest of the picks in this mock draft will come after the Stanley Cup is awarded to whomever earns it, so stay tuned for that.

3 Comments

Scouching's Midseason 2019 NHL Draft Rankings

1/7/2019

3 Comments

Let me start this off by saying that I really dislike numerical rankings that we all see and nitpick. I think it takes away from the whole point of drafting and developing junior talent. A professional hockey team is a large organization of various small groups of people trying to put the best product on the ice that they can. Coaches, managers and players of all kinds will have effects on the new players acquired, be it through free agency, a trade or the draft. The point, at least to me, is to draft the players you think are at the highest level that you believe can develop into being impact NHL players. Nearly every player ever drafted has required some level of care when it comes to development, and often teams that rush their prospects are the ones that end up paying for it the most, especially outside of the very highest of draft picks. My approach is to group players according to a tier system that I would be happy discussing at any of the picks within that group at a draft. I find that it provides room for much more nuanced discussion about what exactly you're looking for at a given pick.

My whole goal with this project is to help fans and teams to better understand exactly what it is that they're acquiring in a draft pick in a more empirical way, as well as highlight some names I've come across in my >600 players from around the world tracked in real time. Well over 15,000 games of data have been logged with quite a bit of hockey left to play. I've tried to watch as many games as I possibly can to refine the rankings a bit, but obviously all that data pushes things in a bit of a different direction.

A few notes before we get started:

There are no goalies on this list. I'm skeptical of drafting goalies in the first 2 rounds unless there are truly exceptional cases, but if you're wondering, I'd have a look at Spencer Knight and Hunter Jones towards the end of the 2nd, with some bigger swings like Pavel Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Erik Portillo, and Jesper Myrenberg later on.
Below the ranking table, there's a writeup with some notes on the aforementioned groups I would have these guys in. So check that out before providing feedback!
If you want more background on the metrics below, check out the YouTube video here!
If you want access to this full, live spreadsheet, it's accessed through Patreon!

Legend

DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
NHLeScore - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of 20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.
Tier - A general view of where I could see a ceiling, with how confident I am of reaching that success. Tier I players could be significant impact players, but a tier I-E would be a real swing on high production with a big risk of falling short. SFTM indicates a shoot-for-the-moon player. I have no idea what the ceiling could be, but these guys show up well on the sheet and could be good value if available later on.

Player	Team	League	DY	NHLeScore	Inv%	Off.Cat%	Def.Cat%	Tot.Cat%	Rank	Tier
Jack Hughes (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	23.55	41.62%	46.24%	-7.48%	53.72%	1	I-B
Kaapo Kakko (RW)	TPS	Liiga	DY	25.33	25.89%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	2	I-B
Kirby Dach (C)	Saskatoon Blades	WHL	DY	21.85	33.82%	93.85%	42.62%	51.23%	3	II-A
Peyton Krebs (LW)	Kootenay Ice	WHL	DY	29.28	45.20%	75.80%	50.18%	25.61%	4	II-A
Dylan Cozens (C/RW)	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	DY	21.89	33.55%	81.88%	52.13%	29.75%	5	II-A
Bowen Byram (D)	Vancouver Giants	WHL	DY	29.03	28.18%	73.94%	82.16%	-8.22%	6	I-C
Arthur Kaliyev (LW)	Hamilton Bulldogs	OHL	DY	30.96	41.48%	124.36%	7.69%	116.67%	7	II-A
Bobby Brink (RW)	Sioux City Musketeers	USHL	DY	29.15	50.18%	97.02%	-0.11%	97.13%	8	II-A
Matthew Boldy (LW)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	13.20	23.78%	29.00%	9.39%	19.60%	9	II-A
Alex Turcotte (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	13.12	24.09%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	10	I-C
Trevor Zegras (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	16.72	30.35%	98.92%	-42.62%	141.54%	11	II-B
Nicholas Robertson (C/LW)	Peterborough Petes	OHL	DY	22.97	29.69%	49.44%	-37.04%	86.48%	12	II-B
Vasili Podkolzin (RW)	SKA-1946 St. Petersburg	MHL	DY	10.74	18.61%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	13	I-C
Alex Newhook (C)	Victoria Grizzlies	BCHL	DY	16.98	43.94%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	14	I-C
Pavel Dorofeyev (LW/RW)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	DY	30.85	60.38%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	15	I-D
Jakob Pelletier (LW)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	DY	21.63	34.80%	113.70%	-6.83%	120.53%	16	II-B
Ryan Suzuki (C)	Barrie Colts	OHL	DY	23.51	31.93%	83.02%	15.85%	67.17%	17	I-C
Philip Broberg (D)	AIK	SWE-2	DY	12.11	8.83%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	18	II-B
Mikko Kokkonen (D)	Jukurit	Liiga	DY	21.88	15.26%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	19	II-C
Lassi Thomson (D)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	DY	22.18	24.62%	112.46%	42.11%	70.35%	20	I-D
Raphaël Lavoie (C/RW)	Halifax Mooseheads	QMJHL	DY	15.51	27.17%	56.83%	43.56%	13.27%	21	III-A
Billy Constantinou (D)	Niagara IceDogs	OHL	DY	14.05	13.26%	64.85%	41.77%	23.08%	22	II-C
Nils Höglander (LW)	Rögle BK	SHL	DY	14.73	11.75%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	23	II-C
Cam York (D)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	11.38	14.45%	132.74%	-43.99%	176.73%	24	II-C
Anttoni Honka (D)	JYP	Liiga	DY	14.89	10.98%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	25	I-D
Albin Grewe (C/RW)	Djurgårdens IF J20	SWE-U20	DY	20.25	38.27%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	26	II-C
Cole Caufield (C/RW)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	13.70	25.87%	20.33%	-4.70%	25.03%	27	II-C
Victor Söderström (D)	Brynäs IF	SHL	DY	15.44	8.01%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	28	III-B
Ville Heinola (D)	Lukko	Liiga	DY	14.04	9.58%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	29	I-D
Matthew Robertson (D)	Edmonton Oil Kings	WHL	DY	16.75	17.05%	67.05%	11.04%	56.01%	30	II-C
Kaedan Korczak (D)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	DY	18.06	18.75%	74.03%	81.84%	-7.81%	31	II-C
Samuel Poulin (LW)	Sherbrooke Phoenix	QMJHL	DY	15.68	25.34%	97.97%	-18.83%	116.80%	32	III-B
Shane Pinto (F)	Lincoln Stars	USHL	DY	22.36	43.36%	110.56%	-12.56%	123.12%	33	II-D
Brett Leason (C)	Prince Albert Raiders	WHL	D+2	19.12	43.83%	128.30%	-24.63%	152.92%	34	III-C
Albert Johansson (D)	Färjestad BK J20	SWE-U20	DY	23.19	30.68%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	35	I-D
Nathan Légaré (RW)	Baie-Comeau Drakkar	QMJHL	DY	18.57	30.72%	89.32%	29.44%	59.88%	36	II-D
Ryan Johnson (D)	Sioux Falls Stampede	USHL	DY	10.59	12.18%	44.45%	17.12%	27.33%	37	II-D
Phillip Tomasino (C)	Niagara IceDogs	OHL	DY	17.71	23.38%	64.40%	-4.44%	68.84%	38	III-C
Nolan Foote (LW)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	DY	22.84	36.34%	60.95%	49.64%	11.32%	39	II-D
Simon Holmström (RW)	HV71 J20	SWE-U20	DY	12.15	22.25%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	40	II-D
Matias Maccelli (LW)	Dubuque Fighting Saints	USHL	DY	18.51	36.46%	64.44%	2.77%	61.66%	41	II-D
Vladislav Kolyachonok (D)	Flint Firebirds	OHL	DY	23.20	21.24%	42.24%	9.35%	32.88%	42	II-D
Thomas Harley (D)	Mississauga Steelheads	OHL	DY	26.81	23.58%	56.30%	122.42%	-66.13%	43	II-D
Dillon Hamaliuk (LW)	Seattle Thunderbirds	WHL	DY	16.33	26.40%	66.04%	13.95%	52.09%	44	III-C
Artemi Knyazev (D)	Chicoutimi Saguenéens	QMJHL	DY	17.70	19.79%	53.73%	24.14%	29.59%	45	II-D
Yegor Serdyuk (RW)	Victoriaville Tigres	QMJHL	DY	24.26	37.37%	135.51%	-7.24%	142.76%	46	II-D
Moritz Seider (D)	Adler Mannheim	DEL	DY	4.03	5.09%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	47	III-C
John Beecher (C)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	6.77	12.20%	81.41%	-38.20%	119.61%	48	II-D
Jake Lee (D)	Seattle Thunderbirds	WHL	DY	17.41	16.67%	100.17%	40.97%	59.20%	49	III-D
Mikhail Abramov (RW/C)	Victoriaville Tigres	QMJHL	DY	20.52	32.70%	91.98%	26.92%	65.06%	50	II-E
Patrik Puistola (LW)	LeKI	FIN-2	DY	14.03	26.36%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	51	II-D
Dmitri Sheshin (F)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	DY	19.45	34.08%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	52	II-E
Eric Ciccolini (RW)	Toronto Jr. Canadiens	OJHL	DY	13.25	41.45%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	53	III-C
Samuel Fagemo (LW/RW)	Frölunda HC	SHL	D+1	19.85	18.55%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	54	II-D
Nikola Pasic (C/LW)	Linköping HC	SHL	DY	8.89	7.34%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	55	II-E
Matthew Brown (F)	Des Moines Buccaneers	USHL	D+2	14.46	37.19%	127.68%	-14.38%	142.05%	56	III-C
Henri Nikkanen (C)	Jukurit	Liiga	DY	9.18	9.04%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	57	III-C
Robert Mastrosimone (C)	Chicago Steel	USHL	DY	13.64	25.45%	44.55%	31.63%	12.93%	58	III-C
Lucas Feuk (C/W)	Södertälje SK J20	SWE-U20	DY	19.37	37.18%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	59	II-E
Michal Teplý (LW)	HC Benatky nad Jizerou	CZE-2	DY	9.52	16.72%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	60	IV-B
Case McCarthy (D)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	7.99	10.12%	147.57%	-53.26%	200.83%	61	III-C
Matthew Struthers (C)	North Bay Battalion	OHL	D+1	23.58	42.73%	129.83%	-5.46%	135.30%	62	SFTM
Tristan Langan (C/LW)	Moose Jaw Warriors	WHL	D+2	20.14	54.31%	167.68%	16.25%	151.43%	63	SFTM
Reece Newkirk (C)	Portland Winterhawks	WHL	DY	17.04	25.97%	44.22%	65.44%	-21.23%	64	III-D
Mikhail Shalagin (F)	MHK Spartak Moskva	MHL	D+2	20.06	50.37%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	65	SFTM
Jordan Spence (D)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	DY	17.80	19.39%	87.09%	50.38%	36.70%	66	III-D
Maxim Cajkovic (RW/LW)	Saint John Sea Dogs	QMJHL	DY	17.60	29.24%	104.21%	19.86%	84.34%	67	II-E
Yegor Spiridonov (LW)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	DY	19.50	36.43%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	68	III-C
Alex Beaucage (RW/LW)	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	QMJHL	DY	18.07	27.16%	81.06%	-12.94%	94.00%	69	III-C
Marcus Kallionkieli (F)	Sioux City Musketeers	USHL	DY	14.53	26.38%	78.28%	-6.62%	84.89%	70	IV-C
Sergei Sapego (D)	Prince Albert Raiders	WHL	D+1	13.78	18.95%	92.73%	-26.56%	119.29%	71	SFTM
Brett Neumann (C)	Kingston Frontenacs	OHL	D+2	21.57	48.98%	167.20%	10.99%	156.21%	72	SFTM
John Farinacci (C)	Muskegon Lumberjacks	USHL	DY	12.17	22.48%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	73	III-C
Karl Henriksson (C)	Frölunda HC J20	SWE-U20	DY	14.43	27.88%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	74	IV-C
Yegor Afanasyev (F)	Muskegon Lumberjacks	USHL	DY	16.20	30.26%	56.80%	-5.76%	62.56%	75	II-E
Connor McMichael (C)	London Knights	OHL	DY	19.24	27.92%	52.53%	6.27%	46.26%	76	II-E
Alex Vlasic (D)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	DY	7.98	9.39%	20.33%	-4.70%	25.03%	77	IV-B
Garrett Pinoniemi (F)	Holy Family Catholic	USHS	DY	17.67	63.16%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	78	II-E
Arvid Costmar (C)	Linköping HC J20	SWE-U20	DY	14.61	26.21%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	79	IV-C
Sasha Mutala (RW)	Tri-City Americans	WHL	DY	13.69	20.10%	92.17%	0.47%	91.70%	80	III-C
Nikita A. Rozhkov (F)	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	MHL	D+1	18.76	42.45%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	81	III-C
Justin Bergeron (D)	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	QMJHL	D+1	17.68	20.99%	86.27%	-14.87%	101.14%	82	SFTM
Mike Koster (D)	Chaska High	USHS	DY	15.84	39.86%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	83	II-D
Charles Eklund (RW)	Mora IK J20	SWE-U20	DY	20.29	37.50%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	84	II-E
Amir Garayev (F)	Kapitan Stupino	MHL	DY	16.32	30.70%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	85	SFTM
Eric Uba (F)	Flint Firebirds	OHL	DY	17.75	26.16%	73.10%	-13.45%	86.55%	86	III-D
Alexander Campbell (C)	Victoria Grizzlies	BCHL	DY	13.18	33.59%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	87	II-E
Mathias Hänninen (F)	KooKoo U20	FIN-U20	DY	16.51	34.63%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	88	SFTM
Kaid Oliver (LW)	Victoria Royals	WHL	D+1	14.72	28.01%	151.03%	11.57%	139.46%	89	SFTM
Kristian Tanus (C/W)	LeKi	FIN-2	D+1	16.59	33.75%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	90	II-E
Luka Burzan (C)	Brandon Wheat Kings	WHL	D+1	17.63	33.91%	91.74%	2.26%	89.48%	91	SFTM
Axel Bergkvist (D)	Leksands IF	SWE-2	D+1	12.74	11.39%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	92	II-E
Kyle Topping (C)	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	D+1	20.45	40.63%	164.79%	1.10%	163.69%	93	SFTM
Lucas Chiodo (LW)	Barrie Colts	OHL	D+2	15.65	38.89%	100.21%	12.97%	87.24%	94	SFTM
Jeremy McKenna (RW)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	D+2	16.00	36.97%	110.04%	29.86%	80.19%	95	SFTM
Keijo Weibel (LW/RW)	Langnau U20	SWI-U20	DY	13.90	39.29%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	96	SFTM
Lukas Pilö (D)	Örebro HK J20	SWE-U20	D+2	19.25	34.03%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	97	SFTM
Antti Tuomisto (D)	Ässät U20	FIN-U20	DY	17.92	25.65%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	98	SFTM
Ryder Donovan (C)	Duluth East	USHS	DY	10.19	42.04%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	99	III-C
Ryan Siedem (D)	Central Illinois Flying Aces	USHL	DY	16.00	19.79%	153.04%	0.25%	152.79%	100	SFTM
Vladislav Firstov (F)	Waterloo Black Hawks	USHL	DY	16.82	29.20%	49.73%	39.75%	9.98%	101	III-D

Group Notes

Group 1 - Rank 1 - The Jack Hughes Group
- It is almost a certainty that Jack Hughes will be the 1st overall selection in June. His speed through the neutral zone, ability to find open men in the offensive zone, ability to make himself the open man with the puck, and his relentless pace to his game is remarkable. A slowish start with some poor playmaking decisions has given way to a steady and quick improvement leading to a good showing at the World Juniors.
- That being said, the vast majority of his production in his USHL games has been on the power play. Under 10% of the NTDP's goals at even strength on average have Jack Hughes as the goal scorer or landing a primary assist. If his ES production matched his PP production, he'd be much, much further ahead in the NHLeScore department.
- One other thing is, from my research, nobody has ever jumped from the USHL to the NHL. While I believe the level of play in the USHL has rapidly improved in the last decade, the team that drafts Hughes may need to be fearless in their willingness to either shelter his minutes early on, or even loaning him to a team in a lower level league, be it the Mississauga Steelheads or otherwise.
- The line between Hughes and Kakko has slimmed in my opinion, but there is still a clear dividing line in terms of upside between the two.
Group 2 - Rank 2 - Kappo Kakko
- Kakko is another one who almost certainly will go where he's ranked. His performance at the World Juniors was excellent overall and his year in the Liiga has been one of the best in recent years.
- Kakko excels with the puck, just like Jack Hughes does, but his game is (in my opinion) much more suited to jump straight to the NHL today. He has a lot of strength with the puck and is able to work his way off of men twice his age to get to scoring areas. He's got the ability to dangle through players as well. He uses his speed to fly through the offensive zone in a variety of ways to draw defenses away from other players on his line, and he'll get them the puck. If they don't follow him, he'll find a way to get a great scoring chance.
- He's been playing at most forward positions over this season, and while he's fought off injuries and cooled since a hot start, I find it hard to bump him off the #2 spot in favour of the next group.
Group 3 - Ranks 3-14 - The Also Good's
- While I would be surprised to see a team take a swing on say, Alex Newhook at #3, these groups are more about who could be in the discussion, however unlikely they would be as a pick.
- Bobby Brink is a speedy winger who has exploded onto the map with little fanfare. A 50%INV in the USHL is unprecedented, and he's effective at both ends. He is an equally dangerous playmaker and goal scorer with great separation speed. As of today, it's possible Brink could go anywhere in the first two round, but I would not hesitate to put him in this group. He also beat out Vasily Podkolzin to win the Under-19 World Junior A Championship MVP award
- Between Cozens, Dach and Krebs, I don't think you could go wrong as long as you develop their skillsets properly. I'm enticed by Krebs' raw production, as well as Dach and Cozens' combination of production, skillsets and their physical frames.
- Alex Turcotte is a huge wildcard for me, but I have really liked what I've seen. Great skill with his stick one-on-one and a very agile and shifty skater who could have massive upside if you can snag him after a few picks roll by.
- I'm a fan of Matthew Boldy's speed through the neutral zone like Jack Hughes, but he brings more of a goal scorer's flavour in the offensive zone. All these USHL guys are very much interchangeable to me.
- Every way I slice it shows that OHL winger Arthur Kaliyev as an excellent prospect. He doubles goal differential when he's on the ice in Hamilton, and involves himself in over 40% of team goals. Perceived consistency/personality problems might need to be set aside if he's on the board at the later end of this group.
- Bowen Byram fits the profile of last year's ridiculous CHL crop in an offensive sense, but he falls down a bit due to his apparent defensive shortcomings. He is likely the best defender available until the mid-late teens, so if you want a defenseman, I could see him going immediately after the big three WHL forwards between 3rd-5th.
- Vasily Podkolzin is one heck of an enigma to me. He had a great World Junior A Championship, but his World Junior has left a lot to be desired. I see a lot of Grigori Denisenko in his profile. A tenacious, skilled winger who shows well with the eyes most of the time, but doesn't show up on the scoresheet as often as you'd like. His individual goal scoring ability using his speed and puck skill is special and worth buying on, but I find his overall profile a bit overrated considering who else could be available where he's rumoured to be selected.
Group 4 - Ranks 16-30 - The Rest of the Best
- "Leading" this group is MHL winger Pavel Dorofeyev. He's a very strong skater who may not be the fastest guy on the ice, but he excels at positioning his body and the puck in such a way where he can maneuver around defenders with ease. He's both a smart playmaker and shooter, and is able to assist in breakouts with his great hand-eye coordination knocking down clearing attempts and bad passes to keep the play flowing forward. His production is the best I've ever seen from a draft eligible in the MHL and he's been playing solid minutes in the KHL with Magnitogorsk. He's one I'm very curious to watch.
- Anttoni Honka might be the biggest boom or bust prospect on this list. An excellent skating defenseman who has had troubles in the Liiga this year. He needs to get much stronger, especially in his own end, and he is an undersized defender who looks undersized. He's a great puck mover though, and his skating is excellent. If you're later in the 1st round and want to take a risk on big upside on the defensive side, he could be a good option.
- Constantinou, Pelletier, Thomson and Kokkonen show up very well on my sheet, and are here due to just how much they do so. Constantinou is well over a point per 60 minutes at even strength, which is excellent for a defender in the OHL, and he's likely to fly under the radar on a poor Kingston team. Thomson may get more production from the power play, but he's a shoot-first guy who has big upside.
- People compare Cole Caufield to Alex DeBrincat, but I really am not so sure. Caufield shoots the puck a ton, and he can really rip it. He's got agility on his feet that can help him find open space, but he's a pure finisher and I'm skeptical of the upside of past guys with a similar profile.
- Cam York is an interesting case. If you want a dependable, intelligent puck mover who can help break you out of the defensive zone well, he's your guy. He makes the odd play in the offensive zone that really surprises me positively, so he has a pretty solid ceiling, I just don't see that instinct a whole lot every game. He uses the other players on the ice very effectively, and he could be a solid supplementary defenseman on any team with his passing ability and effortless skating ability.
- Matt Robertson was a guy I really liked before the season, and has started a bit slow. He's improving, and his two-way numbers are looking good, so I think you could have a dependable all-around defenseman similar to Cam York. He's heating up, so it's entirely possible he ends up higher at the end of the season.
- Nils Höglander is here because guys with his profile are rarely misses. Guys who produce well in the SuperElit league, and then produce decent points in the SHL are often undervalued.
Group 5 - Ranks 31-50 - The Bubble BoiZ
- Shane Pinto is someone I need to watch more of. His profile is that of a 1st round pick, so he might be someone that sneaks in if he keeps up his production for the year.
- Albert Johansson is the same. Point-per-game SuperElit defensemen at his age are rare, let alone 30%INV defenders. He's playing in the SHL off and on, and is one I'd want to see more of.
- Ryan Johnson is my token eyetest guy. Really like his patience with the puck and his ability to calmly use his skill to find open space and move the puck effectively. He produces tremendously per 60 at even strength for a defender, and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone take a leap late in the 1st, but I think adding him to a rebuilding team early in the 2nd and letting him grow in college might be more advisable.
- Thomas Harley is one I've been watching him for a few years now and I like how he's coming along. I imagine someone jumps at his production in the 1st round, but he has measurable defensive shortcomings, and his production is heavily drawn on the power play it seems.
- Yegor Serdyuk has an excellent profile on a bad team, and often players like him fall inexplicably in the draft. He's a guy who I could see being great value unless he continues to improve as he has.
- Artemi Knyazev is my other Ryan Johnson. Absolutely love his mobility and he's adjusting to the QMJHL more and more as time goes on. Goals aren't scored often when he's on the ice, but he's getting points on over 30% of those goals, and at time of data collection, they were all primary points. He's an excellent skater with a really great ability to spot teammates and get them the puck in the offensive zone. Even as a potential power play specialist, there could be great value with Knyazev.
- Brett Leason is the first overager to appear on the list. His production is highly enticing, and even after age-adjustments, it isn't ridiculous to think he goes in the 1st round, especially to a contender who could use a potential boost in the next year or two. He's shown real good flashes of being a guy who just seems to "get it". Pucks land on his stick and stay there, he gets the puck to open men, and he works to be dangerous on any shift. His production at even strength is ridiculous, and there could be solid value. Just seems to feel like a guy you want your younger players to aspire to be.
Group 6 - Ranks 51-101 - Everyone Else
- I'm a believer in Dmitri Sheshin. He's caught my eye more than once watching Pavel Dorofeyev. Really small, but very skilled and very speedy in transition. He's elusive and I think that over time he could become a very interesting skilled forward. Same goes for Matthew Brown, a D+2 in Des Moines. He's scored a ton wherever he plays with an off-year in his draft year. Lots of speed, dangerous goal scorer. I see buy-low upside there.
- Nikola Pasic follows the Höglander rule. He's playing in the SHL and producing. His SuperElit year is very solid too. Samuel Fagemo is a measurably excellent goal scorer historically who went undrafted last year on the grounds of being one-dimensional, but he seems to be doing just fine in the SHL as well. Producing at near-1st round levels for a 19 year old, it wouldn't be insane to see him go much earlier than 51.
- Everyone talks about Alex Newhook, but do not sleep on his linemate Alexander Campbell, nor his D+1 teammate Carter Berger, who isn't on this list for some reason. A bit smaller, Campbell is a reliable scorer from the last couple years who has excelled with Newhook. Really skilled and slippery, he may not be as strong along the boards, but in open ice he's a dangerous puck handler who makes a great 1/2 punch with Newhook. Berger is a defender with fantastic skating ability and is an extremely exciting to watch. I imagine he'll be available later on, and a defender with mobility like his, a willingness to shoot, and a great mind for making hard, accurate passes could be very enticing. I mean the guy has 22 goals in 35 games; as a defender.
- Eric Ciccolini is an OJHL winger who I've seen quite a bit of. He's got good separation speed and can be lethal offensively especially with his wrist shot, but leaves a bit to be desired in his own end and tends to disappear from play a little bit. A ~40%INV is still very good, and I could see him being good value in the middle rounds.
- Justin Bergeron is an interesting D+1 defender in the QMJHL who shoots first and asks questions later. 21%INV is also very good, and he drives two-way play well. If you want someone who's development is a bit fast-tracked, he could be an option.
- Kristian Tanus, Axel Bergqvist, Nikita Rozhkov, and Antti Tuomisto are guys who have great statistical profiles, but are a bit undersized at their positions. Tanus is a great playmaker who has been cleaning up Finland's 2nd division with some time in the Liiga. These guys would all be projects, but they're all good skaters with good playmaking ability.
- Garrett Pinoniemi is rocking a 63.2%INV in high school in Minnesota, which is hilariously high. He and Mike Koster are high school guys I absolutely have my eye on as June approaches. John Farinacci is another high school guy I've liked, but I've only seen a game he played with the USA U-18 team in the USHL. He showed some great transition ability with the puck and always seemed to be applying pressure on the puck if he wasn't the one carrying him.

3 Comments

Scouching's 2019 World Junior Championship Preview

12/6/2018

0 Comments

Fleury sad.

To many hockey fans, the IIHF World Junior Championships creates some of the most exciting games of the year before the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Whether it's fans whose favourite team is in the running for the top talent in the upcoming draft, fans of teams with prospects in the tournament, or the sheer excitement that comes from a tournament of young men representing their nations at what might be the highest level they will do so. Some of my fondest and most heartbreaking memories in hockey come from the stories that sprout from this tournament. Benjamin Conz saving 50 of 52 shots to eliminate the Vladimir Tarasenko-led Russians, Marc-Andre Fleury's own goal that handed the United States their first goal, or Kasperi Kapanen sealing the 2016 tournament in overtime, it's some of the wildest hockey you'll see.

The 2019 installment begins on December 26 in Vancouver, almost assuredly a fanatical host city. The story of the tournament will likely be the Jack Hughes/Kappo Kakko show, with a potential coming out party for Canadian 2020 eligible Alexis Lafreniere. For those unfamiliar, Jack Hughes is the unanimous selection for 1st overall selection in the 2019 NHL Draft, also to be held in Vancouver. Hughes is a somewhat small, but incredibly skilled centreman currently playing with the U.S. National Program. He's extremely skilled, extremely smart, extremely fast, and has only gotten better as the year has progressed. Kappo Kakko is a bigger, heavier player currently playing professionally in Turku, Finland. Kappo gets by on his ability to protect the puck with speed, creating open space with his agility, and both create scoring chances and score goals himself. He started the season extremely hot, but has cooled to a much more reasonable profile, still indicative of a top draft pick. Lafreniere is a winger who is extremely highly regarded as a top pick in 2020. He is just a few days too old to be eligible for the 2019 NHL Draft, and his metrics point to what very likely would be a Top-3 pick in this year's draft. His 41.5% INV% and 28.64 NHLeScore is a remarkable achievement for a prospect of any age, and I'm hoping he makes the Canadian team and plays a significant role. His NHLeScore (an age, position, and league adjusted metric to examine the value of a player's production) sits 2nd on a fully loaded team.There will be some very high level at this tournament on a few different teams, and in the World Juniors, a few great performances can be the difference between an early elimination and a gold medal.

The preliminary rosters have been released, and the player data has been compiled into a spreadsheet that will be linked at the bottom of this article, so feel free to peruse but only once you've finished the little profiles thrown together for each team's camp roster.

We're going to look at each team in ascending order of average NHLeScore. Our 10th ranked team is the team saved in relegation last year: Denmark.

#10 - Denmark - 1.98 NHLeScore
Key Name - Mads Søgaard (G)

The Danish team scored just two goals in the preliminary round last year, but won where it counted saving themselves from relegation against Belarus. The Belorussian team has a ton of young talent looking to earn their spot back in the 2020 tournament, but at time of publishing are likely to lose out to the similarly talented German hosts. The Danish team are a weak looking team that will likely need to do some serious work to avoid relegation again. They are led by SHL defenseman and Detroit Red Wing draft pick Malte Setkov, Vegas pick Jonas Røndbjerg, and draft-eligible goaltender Mads Søgaard out of Medicine Hat in the WHL. Søgaard will be heavily relied upon, and while his 2.5gaa, 0.924 year in the WHL is a good sign, I'm unsure of where the scoring on this team will come from outside of Rondbjerg, who even still is not having the most successful SHL season (NHLeScore of 3.32).

If Søgaard can steal a game or two, then maybe Denmark is the shock of the tournament and finds themselves in a quarterfinal game, but that outcome seems remote at best. When your leading NHLeScorer is a 19 year old defenseman scoring a half a point per game in the Swedish U-20 league, things look a bit grim.

#9 - Kazakhstan - 5.34 NHLeScore
Key Name - Valeri Orekhov (D)

The team that will likely join Denmark in the relegation round, Kazakhstan, may not be bringing a particularly competitive team, they are still bringing a pretty solid group of talent playing in various levels within the KHL-system that may be able to avoid relegation against Denmark. Their key weakness will be in net, and if the Danish goalkeeping can hold firm, it's possible they squeak through. The Kazakhs don't really have a standout offensive threat like Denmark does in Røndbjerg, so it's possible that a great pair of games from Søgaard and a major effort from Røndbjerg helps keep the team alive, but there are some exciting, high scoring options in Kazakhstan that may be a bit of a handful.

In 2018, Kazakhstan was propelled to the top division on the backs of diminutive MHL forward Artyom Gatiyov and KHL defenseman Valeri Orekhov, and they will likely be relied upon again this season. Sayan and Samat Daniyar (unrelated) are likely to be solid supplementary options. Many of these players have played together for years in the Barys Astana program. and that kind of familiarity will likely be a benefit.

#8 - Switzerland - 5.99 NHLeScore
Key Name - Philipp Kurashev (C)

The Swiss historically manage to finish in the "just good enough" tier to usually consider themselves safe from relegation. For the bright spots this team has, there doesn't seem to be quite enough for them to make a significant amount of noise, but there shouldn't be any doubt of an expected spot in the quarterfinals.. Chicago draft pick Philipp Kurashev has all the potential to really bring some fans out of their seats with his puck skill and raw offense, Nando Eggenberger is likely to be a major piece and Columbus pick Tim Berni is a fluid skating offensive defender who could have a nice tournament on a defense core led by Washington prospect Tobias Geisser. Draft eligibles Kyen Sopa and Valentin Nussbaumer should also be very useful pieces in the lineup, and seeing them at this tournament will be a nice chance to view them playing against some high quality competition before the NHL draft.

One advantage that the Swiss have is the large number of players that are regulars in the Swiss men's leagues. With eight NLA players and an AHL defenseman, the Swiss will have plenty of names that will at least have experience against some very solid hockey talent. Experience at that level is an asset against teams made mostly of junior talent, but for the Swiss, that experience ends in goal. Luca Hollenstein and Devils prospect Akira Schmid are sub-.880 goaltenders at the NLB (Swiss Men's 2nd division) and USHL respectively, which doesn't bode well for their chances of going particularly far in the tournament.

#7 - Slovakia - 8.12 NHLeScore
Key Name - Martin Pospisil (C)

The Slovakian team has historically been eliminated in the quarterfinals every year since 2014, save one bronze medal win in 2015 on the back of Martin Réway and goaltender Denis Godla. That trend is likely to continue this season, but the group Slovakia is producing is one of the better ones I can remember recently. This is a team that will almost certainly make it to the quarterfinals on the backs of their offensive talent, but is unlikely to have the goaltending or defensive depth to shock their opponents in that round.

With notable names like Martin Pospisil, they will have some gritty offensive options that teams shouldn't undeestimate. Pospisil has been part of one of the more dangerous lines in the USHL with draft eligibles Bobby Brink and Marcus Kallionkieli with a massive 46% involvement in team offense.

The interesting part lies with their younger additions to the team. Maxim Cajkovic exploded onto the scene at the U18 tournament last year and has been very good on an awful team in Saint John. Andrej Kukuca and Oliver Okuliar absolutely dominated the U20 level last year in Slovakia as draft eligibles, and both have transitioned well to the Canadian Hockey League. Milos Roman, Adam Ruzicka and Michal Ivan are solid CHLers as well, so there's a strong backbone of players familiar with smaller ice who can also produce. Martin Fehérváry and Adam Liska are playing in high level professional leagues in Europe and are contributors, which only adds more pieces that will help.

They have major weaknesses on the backend and in net, but there are interesting names up front that can score goals. Anything can happen at the World Juniors, and upsets happen every year, but it's likely that the Slovakians will make the cut for next year, while missing out on medal contention.

#6 - Czech Republic - 9.5 NHLeScore
Key Name - Filip Chytil (C)

In the 2018 tournament, the group of Filip Chytil, Martin Necas, Filip Zadina and Martin Kaut helped propel the Czechs to a 4th place finish, their best performance since 2005. This season, all of those players are back. While in terms of NHLeScore, this team is further down the table than most, it cannot be denied that this team has as much of a chance of getting far in this tournament as anyone higher than themselves on this list. Filip Chytil continues to improve in the NHL with the New York Rangers, Filip Zadina has gotten better with Grand Rapids in the AHL, Martin Necas and Martin Kaut is a major piece of the Colorado Eagles roster. All are playing in excellent leagues and performing very well for their respective ages, even if the listed scores may not illustrate that. This team is absolutely loaded with offensive talent that can score in multiple ways, and they shouldn't be underestimated.

A further strength of the team (hopefully) lies in net. Islanders pick Jakub Skarek has been one of the best goaltenders in the Liiga this season. A top goaltender in the highest men's division in Finland is no joke. Skarek has been rough in previous tournaments, but he appears to be developing nicely in men's competition and I would expect him to be one of the best goalies in the tournament. With this team's combination of raw offence with their potential in net, the Czech Republic just might be able to pull of what they couldn't last year, or any year in the last 14; a medal finish.

#5 - Russia - 9.24 NHLeScore
Key Name - Vitali Kravtsov (RW)

Historically the Russian team is almost certainly a lock to make it to at least the semifinals, but last year was a big step back as a lacklustre preliminary round resulted in an unfavourable quarterfinal against a strong American team on their way to a bronze medal. The pressure to get themselves back to the semifinals must be as intense as it gets, and the last time this team had such a poor showing, they turned around and won the whole thing the following year led by Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Tarasenko. This season the Russians are bringing a very talented squad full of players who have broken into full-time KHL work, and some who have found tremendous success at the highest levels in Russia. Most notably, Rangers Top-10 pick, skilled and powerful winger Vitali Kravtsov is the highest NHLeScore of any player in the tournament at a massive 37.5 playing for the KHL's Traktor Chelyabinsk. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kravstov take this tournament over, especially if he's paired with a solid puck possession centre like Minnesota's Alex Khovanov. Draft eligible Vasili Podkozlin should be a contributor as well, and this could be a nice time for him to show the scouting world that his lack of production thus far is no cause for concern.

The questions arise when you realize who the team left off the roster. Calgary's Dmitri Zavgorodny didn't even receive a camp invite, even though his performances on Russian national teams have been exemplary before, and his year in Rimouski has been remarkable thus far. Edmonton pick Kirill Maximov has been great in Niagara and he too was left off the list. Toronto Maple Leafs fan-favourite Semyon Der-Arguchintsev was another name somewhat surprisingly left off. All of these players are used to the smaller ice in North America and have measurable success compared to some of the forward names listed and could've likely been supplementary assets. Russia's defense is traditionally not great, but Washington first rounder Alexander Alexeyev has taken a big step in Red Deer and simply couldn't have been left off the list. He and Kravtsov will be relied upon heavily to offset the likely porous defense this team will have.

The Russians have further strength in net with Columbus pick Daniil Tarasov, Amir Miftakhov and Pyotr Kochetkov to choose from. All are solid goaltenders against men in the KHL's 2nd division, the VHL. They may be busy, but they'll likely be able to keep goals against under control.

This is not a team that I'd write off, and they'll be hungry. They have the individual talent to really take over the tournament, but time will tell if the depth is there to validate the lineup decisions they made.

#4 - Finland - 11.62 NHLeScore
Key Name - Rasmus Kupari (C)

While we're on the topic of disappointing teams from 2018, the Finns were upset by the Czechs in a quarterfinal shootout and they'll be looking to avenge their defeat with one heck of a team. The Finns are not afraid to go with young skill, and this year is no different. Kappo Kakko, Mikko Kokkonen, Anton Lundell, Lassi Thomson, Ville Heinola, and Anttoni Honka are all draft eligible in either 2019 or 2020, and many should be expected to make the team and be contributors. Even if this group doesn't achieve the highest standing, the future of the Finnish program is remarkably bright. Kappo Kakko is a lock to be the #2 pick in the draft, and his season against men in the Liiga matches that of Patrik Laine.

For every great youth player, the Finns also have drafted talent that has the ability to take this tournament over. Rasmus Kupari and Alexsi Heponiemi have been lethal together with Kärpät in the Liiga, Oskari Laaksonen has been a nice surprise for Buffalo, and stocky goal scorer Niklas Nordgren will be hoping to build off of an excellent U-18 tournament last spring. The team may also get a massive boost from skilled power forward Kristian Vesalainen, reliable defender Urho Vaakaanainen, and speedy sniper Eeli Tolvanen should their respective NHL teams release them. Talent like that could make them favourites very quickly.

Their defense is mobile, their forwards are creative and skilled, and they're one of the younger teams in the tournament. With a solid goaltending option in Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, who has transitioned to smaller ice quite nicely, the Finns have a very high ceiling for both this year and next.

#3 - The USA - 14.5 NHLeScore
Key Player - Jack Hughes (C)

It is painfully evident to me that the construction of the American team is perplexing to say the least. There is a solid group of forwards and a good selection of goaltenders, but there have been some remarkable hockey players completely left off the list for this year, especially on defense. Mobile puck movers like Reilly Walsh, Max Gildon, Jack Rathbone, and most egregious of all, Bode Wilde were all left off the camp list in favour of larger, tougher and safer defensemen such as Ty Emberson, Dylan Samberg, Mattias Samuelsson, and Phillip Kemp. That being said, Quinn Hughes, Joey Keane and K'Andre Miller will provide a good group with regards to mobility, it's just that there was so much talent left behind that I wouldn't be surprised to see this team get exposed defensively by faster teams like the Canadians and perhaps the Finns. I get the idea, but it really strikes me as trying 2014 hockey in 2018 by relying on slowing the game down. Young players these days are often just too quick and skilled for players like these to counter, especially in international tournaments where referees are much more likely to send guys to the penalty box for rough n' tough play.

The forward group does look quite dangerous, and they're led by the almost certain #1 pick in 2019, Jack Hughes. Hughes is a gifted skater with great vision while on the ice. If he's getting the puck in the defensive zone, he'll weave through the neutral zone like it's no problem, and he'll do so with tremendous speed. He can make plays out of nothing, and no matter who he's playing with, he'll get the puck where it needs to be in order to put points on the board. The idea of a line of Jack Hughes, Dallas pick Jason Robertson and Islanders first rounder Oliver Wahlstrom should terrify just about everyone, especially if Jack's brother Quinn Hughes is patrolling the blueline. Blackhawks pick Evan Barratt, Canadiens pick Ryan Poehling, San Jose's Alex Chmelevski, Josh "Traded for Erik Karlsson" Norris, and Philadelphia's Joel Farabee will be an excellent group to rely on for secondary scoring as well, and if the team can keep the puck out of their own zone, they will be a tough team to outscore. Defeating this team will also include getting pucks past one of Kyle Keyser, Spencer Knight or Cayden Primeau. All are enticing options and this team will likely be right in contention for a medal. It's just a question of how much a more mobile, modern defense group could have helped to really push this team over the edge.

#2 - Sweden - 14.87 NHLeScore
Key Name: Erik Brännström (D)

If the Americans and Finns are going to earn success from their offensive talent, the Swedes will win from the defense out. Simply put, the Swedish defense group should be an absolute menace in this year's tournament. Erik Brännström, Adam Boqvist, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, and Nils Lundqvist and all NHL first round picks. They are all very good hockey players. Three currently play in the AHL, one plays in the SHL, and the other is improving very quickly with the London Knights. There are names up front who can score, and omissions like Albin Eriksson and Jonatan Berggren are questionable, but this is a team that could quietly pick away at your team, generate a ton of shots from the blueline, and capitalize on any greasy goals around the net that may present themselves. Filip Hållander and Jacob Olofsson were steals in the NHL draft, and they should be a pair to watch. Samuel Fagemo is one of the best overage NHL draft eligibles on paper this year, Emil Bemstrom and Johan Södergran have been great goal scorers in the SHL, and Vegas pick Lukas Elvenes could be a great option to get the puck to them.

The Swedes look like a very strong team. They may have some issues with goal scoring depth, but their defense is likely to go toe-to-toe with the Canadian group this season. So long as their goaltending can hold things together, they should be a force in this year's tournament.

#1 - Canada - 17.86 NHLeScore
Key Player - Cody Glass (C)

I'm trying very hard to remove my Canadian bias, but this team is a favourite to medal, and to me, the favourite to win. There were some names they left at home that were particularly disappointing to me, such as Ryan Merkley, Akil Thomas, WHL leading scorer Trey Fix-Wolansky, or Connor Dewar, but overall this team looks deep, skilled, fast, and smart.

Ty Smith has had one of the best season of any drafted prospect of any age outside of the NHL this season with an enormous 41% INV%, and Montreal 2017 pick Josh Brook is not far behind with a 40.3%. Having those two in the same defense group is outrageous, and the idea of tossing Evan Bouchard, Calen Addison, and Noah Dobson, into that group is mouthwatering. Beyond that, you've got Jacob Bernard-Docker, Nicolas Beaudin, and Jared McIsaac to choose from. Many of the top names are right-handed, so there may be some heartbreak if the team chooses to play strictly to handedness, but the raw talent is there to be an absolute force. Up front you have absolutely ridiculous names like Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Morgan Frost, Barrett Hayton, Ty Dellandrea, Owen Tippett, and 2020 eligible Alexis Lafrenière. This team is built to win the thing.

I'll put it this way, a 20+ NHLeScore is roughtly what you'd expect from a first round NHL pick in a given year, regardless of age or position. There are 30 listed on camp rosters so far. Canada has 13 of them. That doesn't include Gabe Vilardi or Max Comtois either. Finland is next with 6. Swapping out names like Crotty, Joseph, Phillips, Entwistle, and Bowers for names like Ryan Merkley, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Stelio Mattheos, and even Serron Noel or Kirby Dach would've pushed that number even higher. It isn't all about production of course, but the measurable difference would be significant.

To to the pile of talent, Ian Scott, the hottest goaltender in Canadian hockey is likely to make the team with Mike DiPietro. Both have been tough to beat this year and will likely be a reliable group behind an exceptional defense core.

This Canadian team contains one of the best junior defense groups that I can remember, and their offense isn't far behind. While there were names I would've liked to have been given a chance by Hockey Canada, the team they've selected is an interesting blend of skill that has huge talent where it counts. They'll likely be a team that will be a major issue to deal with regardless of who they put on the ice and they look like an early team to beat.

NOTE: At time of writing, no cuts had been made, but as of publishing, Ty Dellandrea has been cut from the Canadian Camp. This is somewhat surprising considering his year so far, but likely doesn't remove the team from their position on this list.

Final Thoughts

The 2019 World Junior Championship is poised to be another great installment in what has become some of the best non-NHL hockey of the year. For a lot of these kids, it's the pinnacle of their hockey careers. For many, it's a great chance to impress NHL scouts on a major stage. For fans, it's a fantastic way to get a look at your favourite prospects. Names like Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere, Quinn Hughes, and Kappo Kakko are looking to add to their already lengthy resumes and all hope to go far.

While Canada is a favourite, this tournament is known for it's upsets and surprises. A team like the Czech Republic is loaded with some high level talent playing a step below the NHL and could surprise someone in their expected quarterfinal game. The junior hockey world is equalizing over time, and every year that trend gets put on display and often times, the unexpected happens. This tournament is one that I look forward to every year, and if you and your family haven't gotten drunk on the World Junior Kool-Aid yet, it's very delicious.

As promised, in case the embedded spreadsheet isn't functioning properly for you, here's the direct link to the Google Sheet. Enjoy!

0 Comments

Welcome to Scouching.

8/1/2018

1 Comment

Today is quite a big day for me, as it's the beginning of the launch of a more full and robust Scouching platform. The studio for video production is nearing completion, the subscriptions are starting to be paid for, and the fundraising platform is close to being ready for launch.

I started Scouching in 2016 with the hope of bringing some more analytical insight into the NHL and it's draft, but over time, I've sunk more and more time into the project, and I feel ready to push it to the next step. Here's what you can expect moving forward:

Video Analysis of prospects for the upcoming NHL draft.
Monthly NHL review videos on the state of the league.
NHL prospect pool analysis.
Livestreaming during select NHL broadcasts.
Eventually, road tripping to junior games, documenting the whole thing for you on the YouTube.
With enough interest, a cash prize fantasy hockey league, the Golden Scouch Association.

There's more to come as well, but there's a decent framework, to keep up, definitely keep an eye on the pages linked below.

1 Comment

Welcome to the Blog.

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

The Watchlist

Final Notes

Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert RaidersNHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67sNHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor SpitfiresNHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Undervalued

Dylan Holloway - F - University of WisconsinNHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Joni JurmoNHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

​Closing Thoughts

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeSKey Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeSKey Name - Moritz Seider (D)

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeSKey Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeSKey Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS​Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeSKey Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeSKey Name - The Defense (D)

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeSKey Name - Jan Jeník (W)

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeSKey Name - Cole Caufield (W)

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeSKey Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

Closing Thoughts

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

Tier 2 - The Very Good Ones

Tier 3 - Could Be Great, or Nothing.

Tier 4 - The Real Question Marks

Tier 5 - "I Dunno, Maybe?"

Honourable Mentions

Closing Thoughts

Tier I - Hughes v. Kakko

Tier II

Tier III

Tier IV

Tier V

The "Who Knows" Watchlist

Final Thoughts

The Recap

#16 - Colorado AvalancheGut: Cole Caufield - RW​Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

#17 - Vegas Golden KnightsGut: Tobias Björnfot - D​Brain: Ville Heinola - D

#18 - Dallas StarsGut: Ville Heinola - D​Brain: Connor McMichael - C

#19 - Ottawa SenatorsGut: Moritz Seider - D​Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

#20 - New York RangersGut: Philip Broberg - D​Brain: Moritz Seider - D

#21 - Pittsburgh PenguinsGut: Bobby Brink - RW​Brain: Victor Söderström - D

#22 - LA KingsGut: Thomas Harley - D​Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

#23 - New York IslandersGut: Philip Tomasino - C​Brain: Philip Broberg - D

#24 - Nashville PredatorsGut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW​Brain: ​Jakob Pelletier - LW

#25 - Washington CapitalsGut: Victor Söderström - D​Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

#26 - Calgary FlamesGut: Nicholas Robertson - LW​Brain: Thomas Harley - D

#27 - Tampa Bay LightningGut: Connor McMichael - C​Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

#28 - Carolina HurricanesGut: Jakob Pelletier - LW​Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

#29 - Anaheim DucksGut: Nils Höglander - LW​Brain: ​Jamieson Rees - C

#30 - Boston BruinsGut: Jamieson Rees - C​Brain: Albin Grewe - ​C/RW

#31 - ​Buffalo SabresGut: Ryan Johnson - D​Brain: Spencer Knight - G

Final Thoughts

#1 - New Jersey DevilsGut: Jack Hughes - CBrain: ​Jack Hughes - C

#2 - New York RangersGut: Kaapo Kakko - RWBrain: Kaapo Kakko - RW​

#3 - Chicago BlackhawksGut: Alex Turcotte - CBrain: Alex Turcotte - C

#4 - Colorado AvalancheGut: Kirby Dach - CBrain: Kirby Dach - C

#5 - Los Angeles KingsGut: Dylan Cozens - CBrain: Bowen Byram - D

#6 - Detroit Red WingsGut: Trevor Zegras - C/W​Brain: Trevor Zegras - C/W

#7 - Buffalo SabresGut: Bowen Byram - DBrain - Dylan Cozens - C

#8 - Edmonton OilersGut: Peyton Krebs - LWBrain: Peyton Krebs - LW

#9 - Anaheim Ducks​​Gut: Vasili Podkolzin - LW​Brain: Alex Newhook - C

#10 - Vancouver Canucks​Gut: Alex Newhook - C​Brain: Cole Caufield - C/LW

#11 - Philadelphia FlyersGut: Matthew Boldy - LWBrain: Vasili Podkolzin - LW

#12 - Minnesota Wild​Gut: Spencer Knight - GBrain: Ryan Suzuki - C

#13 - Florida Panthers​​Gut: Ryan Suzuki - CBrain: Arthur Kaliyev - RW

#14 - Arizona CoyotesGut: Cam York - D​Brain: Matthew Boldy - LW

#15 - Montreal CanadiensGut: Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW​Brain: ​Cam York - D

Final Things

Legend

Group Notes

#10 - Denmark - 1.98 NHLeScore Key Name - Mads Søgaard (G)

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Closing Thoughts

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

#16 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Cole Caufield - RW
Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

#17 - Vegas Golden Knights
Gut: Tobias Björnfot - D
Brain: Ville Heinola - D

#18 - Dallas Stars
Gut: Ville Heinola - D
Brain: Connor McMichael - C

#19 - Ottawa Senators
Gut: Moritz Seider - D
Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

#20 - New York Rangers
Gut: Philip Broberg - D
Brain: Moritz Seider - D

#21 - Pittsburgh Penguins
Gut: Bobby Brink - RW
Brain: Victor Söderström - D

#22 - LA Kings
Gut: Thomas Harley - D
Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

#23 - New York Islanders
Gut: Philip Tomasino - C
Brain: Philip Broberg - D

#24 - Nashville Predators
Gut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW
Brain: Jakob Pelletier - LW

#25 - Washington Capitals
Gut: Victor Söderström - D
Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

#26 - Calgary Flames
Gut: Nicholas Robertson - LW
Brain: Thomas Harley - D

#27 - Tampa Bay Lightning
Gut: Connor McMichael - C
Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

#28 - Carolina Hurricanes
Gut: Jakob Pelletier - LW
Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

#29 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Nils Höglander - LW
Brain: Jamieson Rees - C

#30 - Boston Bruins
Gut: Jamieson Rees - C
Brain: Albin Grewe - C/RW

#31 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Ryan Johnson - D
Brain: Spencer Knight - G

#1 - New Jersey Devils
Gut: Jack Hughes - C
Brain: Jack Hughes - C

#2 - New York Rangers
Gut: Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain: Kaapo Kakko - RW

#3 - Chicago Blackhawks
Gut: Alex Turcotte - C
Brain: Alex Turcotte - C

#4 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Kirby Dach - C
Brain: Kirby Dach - C

#5 - Los Angeles Kings
Gut: Dylan Cozens - C
Brain: Bowen Byram - D

#6 - Detroit Red Wings
Gut: Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain: Trevor Zegras - C/W

#7 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Bowen Byram - D
Brain - Dylan Cozens - C

#8 - Edmonton Oilers
Gut: Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain: Peyton Krebs - LW

#9 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Vasili Podkolzin - LW
Brain: Alex Newhook - C

#10 - Vancouver Canucks
Gut: Alex Newhook - C
Brain: Cole Caufield - C/LW

#11 - Philadelphia Flyers
Gut: Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain: Vasili Podkolzin - LW

#12 - Minnesota Wild
Gut: Spencer Knight - G
Brain: Ryan Suzuki - C

#13 - Florida Panthers
Gut: Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain: Arthur Kaliyev - RW

#14 - Arizona Coyotes
Gut: Cam York - D
Brain: Matthew Boldy - LW

#15 - Montreal Canadiens
Gut: Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain: Cam York - D

#10 - Denmark - 1.98 NHLeScore
Key Name - Mads Søgaard (G)

#9 - Kazakhstan - 5.34 NHLeScore
Key Name - Valeri Orekhov (D)

#8 - Switzerland - 5.99 NHLeScore
Key Name - Philipp Kurashev (C)

#7 - Slovakia - 8.12 NHLeScore
Key Name - Martin Pospisil (C)

#6 - Czech Republic - 9.5 NHLeScore
Key Name - Filip Chytil (C)

#5 - Russia - 9.24 NHLeScore
Key Name - Vitali Kravtsov (RW)

#4 - Finland - 11.62 NHLeScore
Key Name - Rasmus Kupari (C)

#3 - The USA - 14.5 NHLeScore
Key Player - Jack Hughes (C)

#2 - Sweden - 14.87 NHLeScore
Key Name: Erik Brännström (D)

#1 - Canada - 17.86 NHLeScore
Key Player - Cody Glass (C)