A big reason why I'm such a fan of this tournament is because it can be messy, fun hockey that showcases just how bright the future of this game is. This season was not only no different, but felt like that was ratcheted up to 11 out of 10. Maybe it's the two year period it's been without this tournament, maybe it's the raw talent of the names coming to the NHL in the future, maybe it's that a number of high end players were able to play when they normally wouldn't, maybe it's all of the above, but this tournament was a heck of a show and I wish I could've been there.

I won't waste a ton of time before breaking each team's effort down individually, but I also just want to mention that the U18 to me is just a nice tournament to casually evaluate specific cases, rather than making large judgements regarding a players game. It's short, many players have had tumultuous seasons, and lots of bounces going one way or the other can make a player seem much better or worse, so it's important to be careful when making observations. The way I see it, this tournament was a great experience to see cases who have caught my eye like Dmitri Kuzmin, Aleksi Heimosalmi, Ville Koivunen, and see what happens when their level of play is elevated to high end global talent, and what happens when they're on small ice. In some cases, my thoughts were confirmed. In others, it makes me want to go back and take another look. Which ones were which? Find out below!

​I honestly don't really know what to say about the German team from this year. I saw their games, rewatched a bunch in the time since, and I still have a hard time identifying points to take home of any kind. They seemed outmatched in every game, struggled to score, struggled to keep up with the pace, and struggled to keep the puck out of their net. They were there, they showed up, and Bennet Roßmy showed his shot and range here and there.

Roßmy was the guy I had my eye on going into the tournament, and while I came away leaning more towards taking him off my list, he was still a threatening player for the Germans from time to time. Nikita Quapp had some nice moments when tested in net, but I'm really grasping at straws here. I thought Latvia was a more cohesive and talented unit and had there been a relegation round, I imagine the Germans would be against the ropes, but we'll see what they fire back with in 2022. At least Julian Lutz can come back?

The Latvians were in tough, and needed to hope for a victory against Belarus or Switzerland to pull off a quarterfinal appearance. Funnily enough, their closest games were against Switzerland and future champions Canada, losing 4-2 in both. I felt the Latvians came to play, but the jump in talent to this tournament for many of these young players was huge. They played as a unit and worked off each other well, but they just had trouble pushing back against high-end opponents and high intensity defensive play.

Gustavs Ozolins was a guy I had my eye on, and while I saw the skill and passing ability on display on breakouts especially, he seemed to have issues taking over play and driving possession consistently. Martins Lavins, Darels Dukurs, and Anri Ravinskis were players who I felt came the closest to truly challenging their opponents, but nobody on this team jumped out at me as "I should be drafted" talents. Lavins gets my MVP for the mobility and pace he brought from time to time, even if he didn't necessarily dominate his team and his opponents. Their effort was admirable, I enjoyed watching them push back against Canada pretty hard, and I do think they'd avoid relegation, but they were in a tough spot to begin with, and their results reflect that. Again, a team where it's hard to write anything extremely constructive, but they were there!

Another team where I just shrug my shoulders and want to move on. They beat the Latvians, which should be assumed for a country like Switzerland, but other than that, they were not particularly competitive. Kevin Pasche played well in net, Louis Robin had some nice moments that I caught with some pace and skill, and I did come away curious about Livio Truog for the 2022 draft, but high-scoring names in Switzerland's lower levels were largely nowhere to be found. Reichle, Bougro, Prada, Biasca, all didn't show a whole lot that really moved the needle for me. In my view, this was expected after having watched my fair share of Swiss junior hockey. The Swiss are in a bit of a down period, but Lian Bichsel had some interesting flashes of defensive, physical play so I'll be curious to see what he can do next year.

My MVP was without a doubt the best player on the Swiss team in Dario Sidler. Again, he isn't a player I'd likely take a swing on in the NHL Draft, but if it were pick 224 and a bunch of other names I like are off the board, sure. Why not. I expected him to struggle a bit in this tournament with the defensive gap control and pressure application that I've seen in his experience with Zug, but the offense is there. He's mobile, highly skilled, and sends hard, crisp passes around the ice to push play. Of all the teams covered to this point, Sidler was the biggest standout to me, and I think he turned a few heads. He's obviously remarkably tiny, and he's obviously a longshot, and I will bet that the majority of NHL teams have no interest, but it's hard to deny his results. He led the team in SAT%, he led the team in scoring, he wasn't on the ice for a goal against at even strength, and I'll be curious to see what comes of his career in the coming years.

Every team prior to the Czechs failed to score 7 goals in their entire tournament, so that makes real heavy, detailed analysis tough. With the Czechs, while they scored more, they are still in the same boat where there isn't really all that much to write home about. My guy Jiri Tichacek was... fine? Not great, not terrible, but I can't say I didn't expect a bit more. David Jiricek? Again, fine, but not what I expected. Simon Marha, Jakub Altrichter, and Jakub Brabenec all had moments of speed, skill and resiliency that I liked, but nothing that significantly moved the needle for me, which lines up with my experience with these players going into the tournament.

The biggest name, Stanislav Svozil was largely invisible in my view. I still have him rated in my 1st round for his mobility, skill and defensive maturity, but I really expected the Czech defense group to really be able to drive play and show how deep they are, but unfortunately I didn't see a ton that was particularly notable. Tomas Hamara is a player I've enjoyed in Finland, and he should be back next year, so there's at least that to look forward to, but again, this team gets a shrug from me. They got bamboozled by the Finns, as Finns can do, and they gave up 10 goals against the two teams that ended up in the gold medal final, which tells you a lot of what you need to know.

Pre-tournament, I called Belarus underrated, and I feel a little bit vindicated. If we're talking teams that maximized their talent level and then some on top, it was Belarus. ​​Dmitri Kuzmin had a coming out party as a legitimate NHL prospect as an offensively skilled defenseman, and of course he pulled out a lacrosse move to score a goal early in the tournament. Tikhon Chayka played well in net, doing what he needed to do to keep his team in it. I felt that if their game against Sweden was played more at 5v5, it would've been significantly closer than it was. They beat Latvia worse than Canada did, and in my view, they put up an impressive performance against Canada that showed that they could at least hang with the big dogs. I didn't expect Belarus to medal, but I also didn't expect Belarus to be down just 3-2 against the Russians going into the 3rd period of their quarterfinal, ending up outshooting them in a 5-2 loss.

It'd be too easy for me to put Dmitri Kuzmin as my MVP, but Danila Klimovich is hard to ignore. His skill with his hands, and pure shooting ability were on display, and well past what I expected going into this tournament. I'm a little skeptical of his legitimacy as an NHL prospect, but I can see him getting a flyer later on. If you can score, you can score, and he did the thing twice as often as any of his teammates.

They've got five players eligible to return, and their U18 and U17 program seem to get better and better over time recently. I'll have my eye out for their team next year, even if it lacks names like Kuzmin, Klimovich, Mikhalyov, and Morozov. The Belarusians were the team I enjoyed watching the most, relative to my expectations, and good on them for their effort this year.

​The States were my biggest whiff going into this year's tournament, as I had them pegged as a potential gold medal winner. Well, that did not happen. In fact, the States haven't lose in the quarterfinals at this tournament since I was in elementary school 20 years ago. I didn't think this team would struggle like they did, with three games going to overtime, and a quarterfinal against a Swedish team who decided they wanted to win a game when it mattered, but here we are. The goaltending wasn't great, and the States got exposed for issues that can be shrouded against USHL competition with regard to their pace, skill, and reliance on soft opponent defending to get pucks into the net. Curious names I had my eye on like Gilmartin, Janicke, and St. Louis, were all not much of an impact, Sean Behrens exemplified the issues in his game that may hold him  back from serious NHL upside surrounding his puck management, power generation and defensive pressure application at times. While Sasha Pastujov was impressive on the scoresheet as he is all year, and he still cemented himself as a legitimate NHL prospect in my books, I still fail to see a player that can maintain this scoring pace year over year without significant help on the ice with him. Great finishing ability, great skill under pressure to find open ice, but he's a big "I don't know" case study.

I did come away most impressed with Dylan Duke for reasons I expected coming in. He's tenacious, hard on pucks, plays fast, and can be a real nightmare around the net. He was a major driver of play when I saw him on the ice, and while he may not be an NHL scoring threat, I do think there's a rambunctious, energetic winger there that coaches would like to have. He gets to the net, bashes pucks, bashes players, and plays with a fearlessness that helps elevate undersized players like him.

The States did bring along a promising group of 2022 and 2023 eligibles, even if they struggled to move the needle this year. Lane Hutson was the most pleasant surprise to me with skill, speed and aggression that I always love to see. If it wasn't Dylan Duke getting my MVP, it would've been Hutson. Isaac Howard and Charlie Stramel are likely to return next year, and I thought they both played well. If Stramel fills out a bit, he could be a heck of a skilled power forward. Rutger McGroarty is a player I've seen quite a bit this year, and he's a big "we'll see" for next year. He's talented, but I didn't see a tremendous amount in this tournament that made me race to put him higher on my priority list for 2022. 

I hope this is just an off-year for the States. Seven players are eligible to come back next year, and names like Cruz Lucius, Seamus Casey, Tyler Duke, Maddox Fleming, and Frank Nazar will be there in 2022, so hopefully they're able to get back to where they've been in the last 20 years.

​You want to talk about roller coaster hockey, the Finns brought it. Two enormous comebacks, one against the Russians, and another against the Czechs were not out of character for Finland, and they were a heck of a team to watch. Aleksi Heimosalmi confirmed his status as a legitimate NHL prospect, controversially winning defenseman of the tournament, but he was certainly in that conversation. His skill, mobility, and offensive potential were all on display, and I certainly will be going back to track more of him before the draft. I'm still low on Samu Salminen, seven goals aside. His pace is slow, he overpowers junior competition without a ton of skill or speed, and five of his goals came on power plays. Maybe there's a bottom six player for an NHL team there who you can park in the middle of the ice on a power play, but I'm not fond of the idea of using a high pick on the high-scoring Finnish junior player.

There were a lot of eyes on Brad Lambert, and I do believe he showcased the extremely high end raw talent there, but I can't shake the feeling that he's a player who needs to simplify things a little bit to maximize his overall impact on the game. He can put the puck on his stick and skate a few laps around the offensive zone with nobody able to touch him, but if those chances end up with a spin shot from low or medium danger, you aren't likely to score a ton of goals doing that. Finding linemates with seam passing, and being able to push and pull the flow of your game should be next steps for him, but the talent is undeniable.

​Samu Tuomaala was a player I had my eyes on going into this tournament, and he came away more impressive than I expected. His natural style of play doesn't feel like it would work in the NHL, with tons of speed, and not much in the way of attack-minded offense, but he sure can shoot the puck, and he shot the puck good in Texas this year. I didn't bump him up my list much, but he certainly looks like a curious case for a team to work with over the next few years.

Kalle Ervasti was a case of "I want to see what he can do outside his club team", and while I thought he played okay when he did play, I was disappointed to see him out of the lineup and struggle a bit. I still believe there's a good defensive player there, so if it means you can get him later, I'm for it. Same goes for the other Kalle, Kalle Väisänen. Viljami Juusola showed off his mobility and reminded me I need to go back and track some more of him as well.

People still seem to be undervaluing Ville Koivunen. He's so crafty and intelligent with his awareness of linemates and ability to take care of the puck. His pure offensive finishing ability came out more than I expected, and I was pleasantly surprised at how much of an impact Koivunen had. If he's still a player teams are sleeping on going into the draft, I'm more than happy to pick him up much later than he should go in July.

The Finns only notable returnee is likely to be Joakim Kemell, who had nice moments here and there, but Topi Rönni, Jere Lassila, and Santeri Sulku are all interesting names to keep an eye on for next year.

If there were an award for Most Improved Team, Sweden would be the only contender. They looked completely broken, slow, and generally awful to start the tournament. They struggled against Belarus, played like a national team from Mongolia against Canada, and struggled against Switzerland, but as time went on, more and more pieces began falling into place, and Sweden managed to find their stride when it mattered, pushing the powerhouse Americans out of the tournament, and at least competing with an overwhelming Canadian offense until the 3rd period of their semifinal. It's hard to compete when you can't get a save, which was an issue for stretches of the tournament, but the team struggled to generate clean breakouts, struggled to get pucks inside, and struggled to push pace against competitive opponents. The best and worst bits of Simon Edvinsson were on display, with some awful defensive play early in the tournament closing out defensive rushes and struggling with lateral mobility and relying on his reach to counter speed, but he became more of a two-way threat more and more as time went on.

My biggest takeaway for Sweden is the group of 2022 eligibles that I felt showed more consistently, even if they weren't the most effective players on the roster. Ludvig Persson was an exciting presence that I'll have a close eye on next year, as was Noah Östlund. I expected a serious performance from Elias Salomonsson, and while I wouldn't say he played poorly, he wasn't quite as effective as I expected. The fun-factor potential of Mattias Hävelid also was on display as a mobile puck mover, which I'm always interested in, and he's been impressive in my viewings back in Sweden.

Fabian Lysell, in my view was one of a very small number of players that was out there at least trying to drive play and drag Sweden into being competitive from game 1. He can fly, he's creative, he drove offense well, and I still believe that with patience, there could be a tremendous hockey player in Fabian Lysell. He had trouble consistently driving pucks inside, but so did the entire Swedish team. At this point, I'm not sure what else people need to see out of Lysell to consider him an excellent option for this year's draft, but it still feels as though I'm on an island with my view on him.

Isak Rosén did score quite a few goals, and his release really is something. My tracked data on him puts him as one of the better drivers of dangerous shooting off his own stick this season, and that checks out based on this. He struggled to drive the puck really deep into the offensive zone, but his medium range threat was undeniable. The other high end Swedish draft eligible, Simon Robertsson was... up and down. I'd be lying if I said I didn't expect more from him. It really feels like depending on the night, you could get highly different versions of Robertsson. He played well in the bronze medal game, and did improve as the tournament went on, but this is a player I've seen really take over a game, especially at the junior level, and I didn't see that here. If it means he slips in the draft, so be it. Similar to previous names, I'd be happy to land him later than he should go.

All in all, I was happy to see Sweden continuously improve, and while their semifinal ended with 6 goals against in the 3rd period, I still felt that there were positive things to take hom. The future of hockey in Sweden seems bright, and even though there were hiccups and questionable tactical decisions this year regarding line construction and who was getting ice time, I felt the team got better and rightfully earned a bronze medal with a dominant 8-0 over the Finns.

Game 1 against the United States brought back the old adage of "never bet against Russian kids playing hockey". They are competitive, play a full 60 minutes, and they go fast. If they get in your head, it can be hard to get them out. The Russians were largely very impressive this year, but were marked by enormous talent coming in the 2022 and 2023 draft. Ivan Miroshnichenko: Legit. Danila Yurov: Legit. Matvei Michkov: lol. Sergei Ivanov immediately took over in net and looked great. Kirill Gerasimyuk did not have a great first start, and never saw the net again, so that's unfortunate, but I can't see how he isn't worth drafting.

Bringing things back to 2021, I thought Prokhor Poltapov played his best hockey I've seen him play. Tremendous physical resiliency under pressure, great skill in transition, and a daring power winger game that I haven't seen consistently this year. It wasn't enough to bump him into my first round, but he was impressive, and I do think this is a player with a reasonably high floor of talent and could make a nice pickup in the second round. Many who are in this world have been on the Svechkov train, including myself, and this tournament indicated why. He was, to me, tremendous. Second best SAT%, put passes out in front, finished plays himself, and drove offensive transitions with control and pace. There's a lot to like about Svechkov, and a lot of it was on display. More eyes may have been on the flashier Chibrikov, and he was better than I expected going in, with more defensive intensity and involvement than I've seen for large parts of this season. He showed off his skill, and pace that gets snuffed out against VHL and KHL competition often, but it was there. I'm still not as high on him as I am with Svechkov, but he made me check myself a bit for sure.

I don't really know what I can say about Matvei Michkov that hasn't been said already. He's a ruthless goal scorer, with a combination of skill, power, determination, and pure shooting talent that is rare at such an age. I mean, he scored over 30 goals with SKA's top junior team. He's sick. He's going to be a high draft pick, and this was his first real public showing of just how talented he could be. Ivan Miroshnichenko is a guy who I think I will latch onto very, very hard next year with his skill, speed, and dual threat offense. He's so much fun to watch and he'll be one of the first names tracked once hockey gets going next year, Plus, six players are eligible to return next year, so I imagine they'll be just as competitive in 2022.

Yeah, so, uh, this was a good Canadian team, eh? Ben Gaudreau was great in net for a guy who hasn't played a game all year, and their defense corps were perfectly competent and minimizing chances against, allowing just 12 goals in 7 games, but this was a team dominated by it's offense. Their execution was beautiful, almost every minute they had the puck on the ice. Crisp, tactical deconstruction of sloppy opponents with selfless playmaking that just kept filling nets with pucks. They scored 51 times, and had Shane Wright played in every game, he might've challenged Matvei Michkov's goal scoring lead even more than he did. The guy just has a lightning quick release and can score from almost anywhere. I'm really curious to see how his season with Kingston goes next year.

This is a team that scored 20 goals against the Swedes across two games. They didn't seem to struggle in their gold medal victory, and they constantly kept overwhelming opponents, steamrolling through this year's tournament. I didn't think absolutely everyone on the roster was as dominant as the team as a whole, especially the players with limited playing time this year which is to be expected, but names like Othmann, Zellweger and Pinelli all showed well behind the best of the best on the ice. Mason McTavish and Logan Stankoven definitely showed up, and both should be gone in the first round. One will be because of his tenacity, intensity on the puck, dual threat offense, and projectability, and the other is all of the above, but 5'8", so I expect him to go off the board on day two to some smart team. Brandt Clarke had the great performance I was looking for, and while his performance in the gold medal game wasn't particularly spectacular in my tracking, his control of the game, passing skill, and deception with offensive zone production all showed why he's a top player in this year's draft. I didn't see enough to bump him into my top five, but he is not far off. In fact, he's at 6, and likely locked in around there until July.

And so, we get to Connor Bedard. For anyone not in the loop in the WHL, um, this was a coming out party to say the least. He's a brilliant player who constantly just knows what needs to be done to drive results, and  gets away with a ton. He can skate, he can finish, he can make a play, he's selfless when he needs to, he brilliantly draws in defensive pressure, only to defuse it creatively. There's so much to love about Bedard's game that shows exceptionally brightly for the 2023 Draft. I don't imagine he'll be back, as he's dragging Regina into competitiveness, and likely will continue to do so until he's drafted in 2023.

What a heck of a tournament that was, eh? Some absolutely wild Yeehaw Hockey throughout Outside of my misjudgement of the United States going in, things generally lined up as I expected. The Belarusian team came to play, and played relatively well. A bunch of teams get big time shrugs from me, but the Russians, Canadians, Finns, and Swedes as the tournament went on were all exciting with excellent individual performances scattered throughout. The 2022 and 2023 eligibles were the real standouts, and I'm so, so excited to track those classes.

Congratulations to the Canadians for the gold medal win, congratulations to the Russians for a hard fought, competitive performance with a bright future ahead of them, and congratulations to the Swedes for hitting rock bottom and salvaging a medal out of that experience. I always love seeing teams pick themselves up and get back to their proper form, and they deserve some snaps for that. To close, I feel like it's prudent to hand out awards of my own, so here goes, and we'll finish with my All-Star Team. It felt great to have this tournament back, and I'm already looking forward to both the World Championship in Latvia, the Women's World Championship this summer, and the hopeful return of the Women's U18 tournament in 2022! Thanks to the organizers and media who made it all possible, in case you're reading this, and I already can't wait for next year's event.

MVP: Connor Bedard
​Most Improved Player: Simon Edvinsson
Best Non-Draft Eligible: Connor Bedard
Best Surprise: Prokhor Poltapov
Best Forward: Connor Bedard
Best Defender: Brandt Clarke
Best Goalie: Sergei Ivanov

All-Star Team
Fyodor Svechkov (F) / Connor Bedard (C) / Matvei Michkov (RW)
Aleksi Heimosalmi (D) / Brandt Clarke (D)
Sergei Ivanov (G)

Before we get started, I hope you and your respective families and friends are well. Life is tough for far too many in far too many ways these days. Better days are ahead, but until then, we're all in this together and I hope you're all safe and well.

If you'd like to skip this entire writeup and just look at the data sheet I put together, check it out at this link!

We're here! The IIHF U18 tournament, one of the most underrated that they put on, has finally returned after the 2020 tournament was unfortunately canceled. This year's tournament is an interesting mix of players flying under the radar and high profile names that haven't had much public visibility and I hope you're all as excited as I am to see what happens. There are many strong rosters, and almost across the board, goaltending may be a bit of a weak point for multiple teams, so I'm looking forward to a bit of firewagon hockey, especially considering the volume of players who have extremely small sample sizes.

Before breaking down the teams specifically, I'd also like to note that while the data available paints what I'd consider a relatively solid gauge of the talent on display on a team-by-team basis, a number of teams have players with an extremely limited to nonexistent sample. Teams like Sweden also have a number of players with extremely limited minutes in professional league just to keep them playing through the junior league shutdown, for example. In this piece, the order of the team's is a rough idea of where I think they could finish this season.

NHLeS represents an age, position and league adjusted evaluation of the value of their production, with 20+ being typical first round pick-level production. Inv% is simply the player's points per game divided by team goals per game to get a rough idea of how vital the player's output is relative to their team.

More than anything, I'm just happy to see international hockey again. The World Juniors this year were exciting, and the U18s are always equally entertaining in my experience. It's tremendously disappointing to see the Nova Scotia government pull the rug out from under the Women's World Championship, but things are... not great here in Canada, and all I can do is hope that they can reschedule, and bring us the exceptional women's tournament we've been waiting for. The pandemic has certainly gotten me more tied into the women's game and I'm sure I'm not the only one, so I hope the iron is struck, because it's hot. The Women's U18 should also get some more attention, as a sidenote. I'm very much looking forward to the return of those tournaments.

My medal predictions are relatively straightforward. The States seem like the team to beat all things considered, and I think they'll do it over the Canadians while the Russians and Swedes battle it out for the bronze with the Russian goaltending giving them a bit of an advantage. I think the States have an advantage, so long as they can outscore their opponents. They play yeehaw hockey, but they do so for a reason. They're just really good at scoring goals. Canada may be the most talented team, but I always have questions and they historically have looked disjointed and unreliable in this tournament. If their best players dominate, it won't matter much, though.

The Swedes and Finns are bringing good rosters, and if Sweden gets some heroism in net, their firepower could get them into the gold medal game. With the fun individuals peppered around the tournament on other teams, I'm excited to see what comes of it. Will it color my rankings? Maybe a little bit with regards to names on my watchlist and players I'm more bullish on than other outlets, but to me, this tournament is more about the fun factor and seeing what the future of hockey is capable of. In this year's draft, the 2022 and 2023 eligibles all could steal the show, but don't lose sight of the underrated 2021 eligibles that might add to their resumes.

All the best, stay safe, wear a mask, we got this. Let's have some fun watching this!

- Will

I'll start this post by wishing you all a very Happy New Year, and I hope you and yours are well. Things are still very strange, but hopefully before too long, we're all able to start the road back to some kind of normalcy. That goes for both the hockey world and in our respective personal lives. 

To say this 2021 draft class comes off as equal or an improvement on the classes of 2019 or 2020 might be a bit unlikely, but I'm not counting myself among the people who think this is a historically poor group of draft eligibles. The groups in the first two tiers should be solid core members of an NHL team, with the third and fourth being reliable complimentary pieces, or nice swings to take with high end individual traits. I'm personally very interested in the fifth tier and where they end up, as many players in that range are, in my opinion, quite undervalued and may be players you could draft late and end up with a contributing piece to a roster.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project. As of time of writing (Feb 16, 2021), I've tracked 268 performances across 99 players from all over the planet, which is already well on the way to surpassing my database for the 2020 Draft. That's largely thanks to your support and motivation to continue the work, so I hope that what I provide in return is valuable. All of this provides the backbone to how I construct my list, while also considering what I'm seeing with my eyeballs saved as 6 gigabytes of MP4s.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a  brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team. ​

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

With that all taken care of, here's the list!

This year's draft has as significantly higher amount of shrugging from me than I'm used to. I get the feeling that if I'm working for an NHL team, I'm waiting for unheralded guys in the higher tiers to slip later than they should such as Tichacek, Johnson, Gucciardi, Martino, or even names like Scott Morrow or Logan Stankoven could. I'm most interested in the 2nd round range of my list and what might come out of that group. There are re-entries that I'd push for, but in terms of draft eligibles, there are only a few players that are flying under the radar that I truly feel confident about in terms of their projection. I'm really curious to see where this group ends up in 5-10 years, though. As I said, I don't believe it's as bad as some might say, but it's definitely not as exciting as the last two years where I've really dug into the group.

The 2021 Scouching Reports start in March, so stay tuned for those, NHL Rookie Reports are rolling in, and stay in the loop for more What Actually Happened To... installments both here on Scouching.ca and at McKeens.

We're still not out of the woods yet with COVID-19, so I'll take a bit of time to remind you to stay as distanced as you can, wear a mask whenever you do leave your domicile, and do your part to look out for your community. It's been a really, really hard year for everyone, but the less careful we are, the longer this goes on. I want to get back into the rink just like everyone else and meeting all of you lovely people, but there's still work to do that starts with the individual.

- Will

First off, I hope you and yours are all doing well. This year has been really strange, really frustrating, and above all, just really hard. The COVID-19 Pandemic has been an extremely difficult adjustment for many, and to all our medical professionals out there, you're all just a bunch of heroes. I honestly don't know what day it is most days anymore, but regardless of what's going on in the world, hockey seems to be stumbling along around the world adapting as things shift and change just like the rest of us. It's been unique so far, but luckily there's been enough to watch and track where I feel somewhat confident about at least the first 3 tiers of players for the 2021 Draft. As of time of writing (November 18, 2020), I've gathered data on 43 skaters across 54 games played, which granted is a small sample, but all of these players are players I've laid eyes on over the last two seasons, and many of these are players I've tracked data on so far this season.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

Before we get started with a list, I'd just like to put a calm reminder out there to please be selfless and look out for yourself, your family, and your community by wearing a mask, washing/sanitizing your hands, staying distant, staying within your household as much as possible, and when the time is right, receiving whatever vaccine is available. This virus is horrible and has taken far, far too many lives. Protecting yourself, yours, and those who you many never encounter starts with you.

Alright, behold. Scouching's Top-31+ preliminary rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft. Please keep in mind that Pick224 doesn't seem to be updated for this season, so the metrics derived from Dave's data mining is not available. Also, data streams and sample sizes are all over the place, so take the metrics with a salt mine's worth of salt.

This could very easily be ordered very, very differently come the 2021 NHL Draft. It might honestly come down to what style of play you just... like.

• Luke Hughes is #1 to me for a combination of his size, age, skating ability, and offensive lean with excellent two-way potential. He's a tremendous driver of offensive transitions and has taken a big step with his skating from last season. Owen Power is almost a full year older, and I've found Hughes to be the more exciting player as of right now, but it's close.
• Yes, there's a goalie at 3 here. I love Wallstedt. He's squared up in form constantly. He stops pucks a lot. He's calm, collected, and already doing very well at the SHL level, something no first time draft eligible has done before. If you're in such an uncertain draft, and there's a chance of landing a franchise goalie, could we see a goalie go at #1 if they've been playing in the SHL all year? I wouldn't count it out. Where Yaroslav Askarov might be a bit more reactionary and athletic, Wallstedt is calculated, smart, and focused, and I've greatly enjoyed watching him when he's played this year.
• I can't help but be disappointed in Aatu Räty so far this season. I've described him as "Anton Lundell ratcheted up a bit" and I still stand by that. He's highly responsible defensively, smart with his positioning, and has a fluidity and skill that I didn't see in Lundell last year. The catch is that Räty's offensive game seems extremely hit-or-miss. I've seen Cody Ceci-esque misses on shots from in the slot, but I've seen him put one in the top of the net from near the goal line. He's a big case of "wait-and-see". While the potential is there for him to go #1 in my view, I think I lean more in the direction of Räty going later than where I have him slotted.
• Fabian Lysell might be the guy portrayed as an offensive dynamo (which he is) but he's an extremely underrated two-way player in the games I've seen. He works hard and it pays off. He had an outrageously good game in the 1st game I tracked, and his 2nd wasn't too much worse. He can score, pass, play away from the puck, and he's one of these guys I could watch play the game all day. It seems silly, but the only thing holding him back from being higher on my list is that the quality of defender in this top group.
• Clarke is a curious one. I think his style of play is really hard to pull off in the NHL, so I'm withholding him from a top slot until I can see him play this year and track some games.
• William Eklund is just going to likely be a really, really rock solid meat and potatoes hockey player. Really great two-way player who does good things almost every time he's stepping on the ice. There's a lot of Lucas Raymond echoes here, but I don't see quite the same talent level. Just an admirable player I'll have my eye on all year.
• I really, really like Beniers. I've been watching him for three seasons now, and he's just such a solid offensive mind. Tremendous results in game 1 of tracking, a great combination of footspeed, skill, adaptability and creativity. A great offensive pivot who can drive great transition rates offensively and supply linemates with shot assists in the offensive zone, as of right now, I have more time for projecting Beniers as a top level prospect before teammate Kent Johnson.

It's a weird group. I don't really see the drop in talent levels that we've seen in recent years, and the talent seems to be coming from all over the world more than before. It feels as if instead of a certain team or country having "their guy" to compete with Canada's best, many countries are developing better and better talent more and more as time goes on, which is clouding this year's draft. Let me also just say that 2022 looks to be similar. There are a lot of "Glitter Players" that have caught my eye in tracking this year that are eligibles next year, and they're everywhere. The interconnectivity and globalism provided in modern society seems to be leveling the playing field significantly. I mean, the oldest players on this list would've been around 4 years old when I got a Facebook account. They likely don't remember a time before YouTube and high speed internet connections where anyone can share tips and information as they please to the whole world. Judging by the breadth of interesting talent for the 2021 Draft, I don't really mind.

Thank you very much for perusing this, I hope you enjoyed, and please remember to look out for yourself and everyone else by taking the proper COVID precautions and being careful with your risk management. It might save a life you may never meet, and it may save the life of someone you love.

Toodles!

Hello again. This has been a strange summer, no? Yes, it has. Anyway, welcome to the actual final ranking for the 2020 Draft. I've had a change of philosophy to remove some players where I don't feel that I could make a reasonable pitch for them to be drafted. I believe you have to be passionate and believe in every kid you draft, and have fundamental strengths you can reinforce in them and accept that there are weaknesses in every player that have to be managed and improved accordingly to maximize overall impact on the ice. Ranking players where I'm not sure of their likely prospects in the NHL just feels... greasy.

So, 96 players ranked this time around with a watchlist of curious cases to either keep an eye on if undrafted, or to take a swing on in the late rounds. My overall read on this year is overall quite positive. I think there are some exceptional talents available at the top, with a large number of potentially useful core contributors, with a ton of really interesting skilled swings to be taken through the 2nd round. I've really been impressed with the European crop of talent this year especially, and I'm excited to track their careers as they develop.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team. ​

​So, I won't bore you further. Check out the full rankings below!

I'm just excited and anxious about all of it being over at this point. I'm not really sure what else to say. I hope you have fun, I hope your team gets all the players you want them to get, try to be kind to each other and these kids, and it's time to raise some money!

Well it's that time again. With all the uncertainty in the world, we're kinda getting an NHL playoff I suppose, and the draft has been pushed back. In a weird stroke of luck, the extra preparation time has been a huge opportunity to keep refining data and getting a wider and better sample of this draft class. This is the first installment of a full list of 111 players I usually rank, plus a 25 player Watchlist full of guys that check some boxes either analytically and/or with the old-fashioned  e y e  t e s t. Why 111, you ask? Because it's 1 three times and I make the rules. Thing do get significantly more blenderized in my head beyond 93, but nitpick if you dare.

In my rankings things have changed significantly since November. The gap between the 11-20 range has widened to really encompass my 11-30 range, and you could seriously make an argument to me to take any of those players. I obviously have my preferences and they're ordered as such, but it's a very interesting year to have many picks in the top three rounds. It's a fascinating group of players, and when considering all available factors, it's really hard to nail down specific order of player's I'd select, and frankly I think that's okay. How teams develop and form them into the future role they can fit into is what will separate this class, but there's tons to play around with.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Without further ado, behold an early-final rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft, along with explanations of some the decisions made. As always, thank you all for your support, I hope you and yours are safe and well and remain so. 

 That's it. That's the list. I want to note that there's been some discussion recently surrounding length of lists and their usefulness. I've been told that many scouts and teams have lists as small as half the length as mine. I'm still confident in the overall list of players I have ranked, but I completely understand the point of view. My rankings are split into tiers to group players together based on a general feel for talent, and I fully admit that past a certain point, you have to shrug and take your best swing. It's pretty apparent that I value pure, raw talent, regardless of risk. Every pick carries risk, but believing in every player you pick, properly identifying their strengths and weaknesses, and putting them on an achievable trajectory to NHL success is the part that can separate a steal from just another 5th round pick. Give me four lines that can go out, generate offense, suppress defense, and score goals. I don't care as much about how the results are generated, but I do care that the players can do all of those things, especially at 5v5. Even if they have that profile at a lower level, isolating how they're generating those results, and trying to project them is vital to how I value a player. Players have some leeway in this area, but this is the whole reason I evaluate the way that I do. Results based data leads to interesting case studies, data tracking isolates what is happening when the player is playing, and video indicates what might or might not be projectable or going right or wrong.

All this being said, if you have any questions about anything, please don't hesitate to reach out on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube or email. There is a piece coming somewhat soon exploring my general philosophy, so stay tuned for that! More Scouching Reports are on the way as well.

If you liked what I do, please consider becoming a Scouch Potato on whatever platform you're comfortable. Patrons get early access to videos, exclusive data visualizations, written Scouching reports, a private Discord server and plenty of other fun things, but YouTube, Twitter and Instagram would all love to have you too.

Be well and stay safe.
​- Will

The NHL Central Scouting Midterm list is now online and viewable, so if you haven't checked it out yet, definitely do so here before reading further. You don't have to, it just might be good to familiarize yourself, but I'm not the police, so I won't come after you.

Understanding NHL Central Scouting's philosophy is an... interesting exercise. There's a clear preference towards size, a bit of a tendency to value older players, and splitting the players into North American and European skaters goaltenders makes it difficult to understand the landscape as a whole. That doesn't mean we can't explore some cases that are, in my humble opinion, either overvalued, or in many cases undervalued. So behold, three players I'm currently highest and lowest on relative to the NHL Central Scouting List, as well as some honourable mentions.

This one is a bit of a given, based on the analytical work I do, but I have a hard time agreeing with Guhle being a legitimate top talent coming out of this draft. It can certainly be seen that considering Guhle's size and playing style, he isn't the prototypical 6'6" bus on skates that a team hopes turns into Zdeno Chara. Guhle is a surprisingly mobile player who can certainly hold his own in all three zones. It's just a question of upside to me. My viewings of Guhle indicate a player focused more on chasing hits near the blueline in lieu of making a simpler play that maintains position between himself and the middle of the ice. His play with the puck is often somewhat uninspiring and can lead to failures exiting the defensive end.

It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.

​Let me get this out of the way: I really enjoy watching Jack Quinn play hockey. Beyond that, his September 2001 birthday coupled with a much higher focus on goal scoring on a remarkably talented OHL team bring some questions to the table. He's very skilled and has good two-way metrics, but I'm skeptical of his long term outlook considering how impressive some players nearly a year younger (Brett Berard, Martin Chromiak, and Dmitri Ovchinnikov come to mind) have been. I'm always skeptical of players who don't generate assists as it implies that utilizing teammates in a system might not be a strong trait and that a sense of "dynamism" might be lacking. 

Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.

I see the appeal of Will Cuylle. I really do. Good straight line speed, constantly applying pressure on teammates, loves the physical side of the game, he's a brand of player that I know teams still value highly. I just do not see his value being worth what a team might be willing to pay for. He's steadily improved this year after a bit of a slow start, but I don't see Cuylle being much more than an F3 who creates space for linemates through his physical play, and I'm not sure that's worth a 1st, 2nd, or depending on who's available, a 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If he continues to improve, he could come off this list, but I've also come away ​far more impressed with Jean-Luc Foudy in the times I've viewed the Spitfires, and Foudy is ranked just one spot ahead of Cuylle on the NHL's list.

​Holloway's remarkable AJHL production hasn't followed him to a stacked Wisconsin offense, but I'm honestly not concerned. In my viewings, his power play time is restricted, he's playing down the linup a bit, and it feels as though the increased pace of play to the NCAA can be a bit much for the former AJHLer. His talent is undeniable though, and I've seen him take over shifts on his own more often than I've seen him disappear. He brings a great motor with a rangy two-way game with slick offensive tools. He's a player I'd certainly take my time with before taking him to the NHL, but I really do believe if the NHL believes he's the 10th best available North American, he could turn out to be a major steal of the draft if available in the late teens or early 20s.

I personally find Simontaival a major boom or bust player. He's done very well on an extremely talented Tappara junior team with a proven track record against men from 2018-19's Mestis season. That being said, his talent level indicates that he should be clapping the Finnish junior leagues ​​to pieces, but he's been inconsistent. Simontaival is an electrifying skater with wonderful skill and a great ability to get chances from high and medium danger areas. At the same time, he can be careless with the puck and can try to do a bit too much. Whether he stays with Tappara, or comes to North America, he has a whack of potential. A loan to KOOVEE of the Mestis has been promising for him with four points in six games, but as much raw skill and speed that Simontaival has, there's a possibility he's a very talented kid who just can't get over that final "hump" we see with so many skilled players as they develop into NHLers.

Joni Jurmo caught my eye very early in the year watching Jokerit's talented junior team. He's a big defenseman with remarkable mobility and great primary point production at even strength. His hands and ability to move puck into and through the neutral zone is excellent, which is exactly what I believe you need out of a modern defender. He cuts off zone transitions extremely well and chokes out breakouts while staying in position. Passing and carrying decisions are good, but he isn't the crispiest passing defensemen out there and can miss his target a bit more than I'd like. I could easily see a good minutes-eating defender down the line, especially if he slips into the middle rounds of the draft and you're willing to be patient and develop the profile he's exhibited so far.

Trust me, there are many more. The NHL CSS rankings get a little bit hairy regarding players that are tough to view, in limited roles on their teams, or perform well in more subtle analytical data rather than raw point production. While that certainly doesn't render the CSS rankings moot, it is a reminder that it is important to use data and video work to supplement live viewings as much as possible to get a firm view on the players available in the draft.

If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.

Just want the data? Fine. Click here. Or scroll down once the tournament begins and rosters are finalized.

It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.

It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected. 

I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.

Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.

I know I just mentioned that this year's tournament is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm relatively confident the Kazakhs are destined for relegation. Names like Artur Gatiyatov, Demid Yeremyev and Samat/Sayan Daniyar are gone, with names like Maxim Musorov, and Vladislav Nurek to replace them. I've seen Musorov and Guseinov play, and while they're good talents at the MHL level, most of these players hail from an MHL team that has won 9 of 42 games this year. Trouble is, they also cut Guseinov, a 45%INV player on that team that makes up a large portion of this one. I would be absolutely shocked if this team manages to save themselves in relegation against their likely German opponents.

A team that likely had the talent to be in this tournament last year, the Germans are a team I feel will likely be in the relegation group with Kazakhstan; not due to talent, but due to the logistics of the tournament. Of Canada, Russia, Czechia, and the USA, I have a hard time seeing them getting anywhere above last place in their group. It's possible  that a top tier group of Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel, John-Jason Peterka, and Moritz Seider could upset a team or two if Hendrik Hane absolutely shuts the door, which I personally would greatly enjoy, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.

The greatest coach in hockey  has found new work with HC Davos, but last year's Cinderella story is back with another group that may not be able to recapture the magic from last year. Philipp Kurashev, a star in the 2019 tournament is now ineligible and off to a solid North American pro career with the AHL's Rockford Ice Hogs. There aren't a ton of names that could shock opponents as Switzerland has fallen off a little in recent years with regards to NHL draft output, but Tim Berni, Nico Gross, Valentin Nussbaumer, and undrafted not-goalie David Aebischer could all be contributors. Goaltender Luca Hollenstein has been a solid goaltender for Swiss junior teams, and if he can steal a game here or there again, anything is possible, even if he's 5'10".

The perennial quarterfinalists are back with another team with flashes of talent, but not a whole lot of real depth. I will say that I think this is a stronger team than usual. I'm extremely excited to see 2020 eligibles Samuel Knazko and a major sleeper for me in Marko Stacha hopefully play major roles. Maxim Cajkovic should be the top player on this team though. He's a true sniper with great skill, but his defensive shortcomings may be a bit exposed with a shallow defense and centre group. The thought of cutting Martin Chromiak is a perplexing one, but this should be a curious team for the Slovakians.

Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.

The strength of the Finns this year will come from their depth. Justus Annunen has been great in the Liiga this year, and this tournament will be a major test of that success. The team on paper is headlined by Coyotes draft pick Matias Maccelli who has absolutely erupted for Ilves Tampere in the Liiga. His teammate Lassi Thomson will headline the defense with a rejuvenated Anttoni Honka, and notable Winnipeg Jet Ville Heinola. With Rasmus Kupari, the Räty brothers, the forward group should be solid as well, but I'm a bit hesitant to see if they repeat last year's success. It may come down to how Annunen plays, but you also can't ever count out the Finns and how they play the game. They're fast, they work as a unit, they play hard, can wear opponents down and can capitalize on your mistakes.

Here's where we start to get into the weeds a bit. With the way Russian teams "develop" their youth, NHLeS metrics can be artifically low for many Russian players, especially the youngest of the bunch. This year the Russian team is the oldest in the tournament by a third of a year, but there is plenty of talent all over this lineup that I think could easily threaten the best teams out there. If Yaroslav Askarov is the guy in net, he could be the star of the show. I usually don't touch goaltending much in my work, but Askarov is the only VHL goaltender under 18 years of age to play major minutes in recent memory and he's touched KHL ice with SKA St. Petersburg and did not look out of place. He's legit, and as good a bet at a #1 goaltender as you're going to get since Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's unbelievably athletic and technical, making the game look easy and being mature well beyond his years.

Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.

Since the Swedes won the gold in 2012, they never missed medal contention until they got shut out by the Swiss last year. The trouble is that they haven't won the tournament since 2012 either and lost all three bronze medal games they competed in. They've reloaded their team for 2020 with an outstanding defense crop including Victor Söderström, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Rasmus Sandin, and Tobias Björnfot. That is a gross group of players to have moving pucks up the ice and controlling possession of the game. Any of the three goaltenders on their roster could be very solid as well.

The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.

I'm just as surprised to see the Czechs have as high a score as they have, but with a number of good CHL players on the way, and one of the highest NHLeS' in the tournament in Jan Jeník leading the way, the Czechs could have a very impressive tournament after making it through the quarterfinals just once since 2005. Lukas Dostal was wonderful last season and should get his job back this year, but Nick Malik and Jan Bednar are two 2020 eligibles who are quite highly regarded as prospects.

Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.   

The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.

Hahahahahahaha this team is so loaded that you just have to laugh. The 2019 USA NTDP team headliners are almost all here they brought all their outsider friends too. Arthur Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, Bobby Brink, Zac Jones, Jordan Harris, etc. etc. etc. are a great group on their own, but adding Trevor Zegras, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Alex Turcotte, Beecher, and others from prior years is simply ridiculous. I know I was down on Spencer Knight last year, but this is why I'm outward about how goaltending is weird. He's been great with Boston College and internationally, so I expect nothing to change there. This is a dangerous team with at least three scary lines that could easily take this tournament, and the defense is a well rounded group of offensive talent and physical ability. Even the role players like Parker Ford, Curtis Hall and Jack Drury have been impressive players when I've seen them.

I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.

Once again, the Canadian team is out front by quite a margin. The CHL is the best junior league program in the world, but I'm one of those people that firmly believes that European programs and players are continously catching up and underrated. That being said, Canada should still be the top team in this tournament. Their perennial weaknesses often are in net, and with their discipline on international ice. Last year's talent was somewhat light in premier offensive talent, but this year is quite the opposite. Canada's 2020 crop is outstanding and they've chosen to showcase Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Jamie Drysdale, and Dawson Mercer on this year's team. Byfield is a very large, very good skating creative offensive threat, Lafrenière is an absolute hound on the ice with remarkable skill and overall offensive ability, Drysdale is already a top two-way OHL defender, and Mercer is one of the more well-rounded finishers in the 2020 draft outside of the aforementioned Canadians.

The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.

I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.

I really want to reiterate that this year really feels like an especially deep and talented pool of players that we'll get the privilege of watching in Czechia. There are legitimately 6 teams I could see having a good run at winning a medal, and really anything can happen at this tournament. Multiple teams have top level goaltending, multiple teams have top level offensive weapons, multiple teams are absolutely loaded on defense, and I honestly have a hard time actually being definitive about who is likely to finish where.

That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:

Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia

This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.

In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.

P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.

Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.

- Will

Ah yes, it's that time again. NHL Draft Rankings... Every year, I say I dislike rankings, yet every year, here I am. This year I have said that there will be no rankings until after the World Junior Championships in January, but considering just how much data I have access to, and how many players and games I've tracked, I feel relatively comfortable publicizing my preliminary Top 5 tiers before publishing a more complete version next year. On the whole, the preseason hype of this crop seems to be a bit of a mixed bag in my opinion. A number of talents are emerging worldwide, however, and I do believe this will still be a strong group of players with solid depth in the late 1st through 3rd rounds, but from my vantage point, the talent dropoff after the first two tiers could be relatively steep when all is said and done. At the same time, the weekly 20+ NHLeS report I release on Twitter is still much longer than last year's so I may be biased against myself, which is a little unsettling.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including includes NHLeS and INV%, values as of November 24, 2019, with P1/60 and Cat% data accurate to November 19, 2019 and is derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Give him a follow, guy could be going places. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

• NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
• INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
• P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
• OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for at even strength relative to their team.

• DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against at even strength relative to their team.

• TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

"Will, please stop yammering and show me the rankings."
- All of you

Alright without further delay, here are my 5 tiers of 2020 NHL Draft prospects.

So that's that. The first few tiers that are increasingly likely to change the further down you go. Lots of names I've laid eyes on but haven't tracked, lots of names I have data on but haven't laid eyes on, and there's still lots of hockey left to play. I'm only really​ confident in my Top-40 or so with room for more players in that group over time. This is an imperfect science, but all we're trying to do is cut through biases and isolate good players who carry value that is beyond that typically available at any team's given pick. I certainly over time have evolved my tastes to prefer a certain brand of play, and hopefully that's on display in these rankings and with the data I track that will be publicly released around draft time.

If you've made it this far, thank you all so much for your support through the last 15 months as we've seen this platform grow significantly. This work is a joy to put together. These kids are chasing their dreams, and all we can do is sit and watch, but boy is it ever fun to watch. In my dreams, I'm drafting some of these guys into my own program, but until then, I have you, the reader, so thank you.

The next rankings are likely out in January or Februrary, depending on how confident I'm feeling on a given week.

Welcome to the final Scouching Rankings for the 2019 NHL Draft. If you haven't viewed the accompanying video profiling the higher end of the rankings, be sure to click here and check it out!

As always, thank you all for the support through the year. I think the season was a huge building block for the project and I can't wait to see where we're at in 2020 and beyond. Without you, the reader, none of this would be possible.

This ranking outlines some of the important metrics I track over the year in the Prospect Tracker, so if you need a refresher on what these numbers mean, look no further:

• DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
• ​NHLeS - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of >20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
• Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
• Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.

A Brief Note: There are no goalies in this ranking, mostly because they seem to be evaluated on a different plane than skaters, but in short, based on what I've seen with my eyes, Spencer Knight, Pyotr Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Konovalov, Isaiah Saville, Taylor Gauthier, Trent Miner, Erik Portillo and Hunter Jones are a "Top-10" set of goaltenders that I'd have my eye on for varying reasons. Amir Miftakhov is a curious one as well, just off of how many pucks he faced in a pro men's league and his remarkable athleticism. 

This year's draft to me is characterized by a ton of different players from a variety of different backgrounds. I'm not quite sure of how much Grade-A Talent will be coming out of this draft, but the USA National Program was one of the greatest teams I've ever seen play at this level, and I'm fascinated at where these guys may end up. Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are extremely high level talents that should contribute immediately, but beyond that, how you develop these players will be vital. I do strongly believe that once you pass the 2nd round, you could come away with a lot of very interesting prospects at every pick. There are enigmas everywhere, and there could be some great players to come out of places in this draft that you wouldn't expect.

With this article, the pre-draft coverage from Scouching is complete. There will be a post-draft video coming, and be sure to tune in to Scouching's inaugural mock draft, Wednesday, June 19th at 9:30EST, and definitely check out Scouch's Draftathon Friday, June 21st at 7:30PM, as well as Saturday, June 22nd at 10:30AM, where we'll be tracking all 7 rounds live. If you can, donations collected during the streams will go to the YouCanPlay Project, so be sure to come see what we're up to!

Thank you all, if you're a Twitter follower, YouTube subscriber, or a Patreon supporter, it all means the world to me. We'll be back in 2019-20 bigger and better than ever for what looks to be the best draft I've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.