The Scouching Blog

Scouching's Midseason 2021 NHL Draft Rankings

2/15/2021

I'll start this post by wishing you all a very Happy New Year, and I hope you and yours are well. Things are still very strange, but hopefully before too long, we're all able to start the road back to some kind of normalcy. That goes for both the hockey world and in our respective personal lives.

To say this 2021 draft class comes off as equal or an improvement on the classes of 2019 or 2020 might be a bit unlikely, but I'm not counting myself among the people who think this is a historically poor group of draft eligibles. The groups in the first two tiers should be solid core members of an NHL team, with the third and fourth being reliable complimentary pieces, or nice swings to take with high end individual traits. I'm personally very interested in the fifth tier and where they end up, as many players in that range are, in my opinion, quite undervalued and may be players you could draft late and end up with a contributing piece to a roster.

This list is driven largely through production data from www.eliteprospects.com, with my Cat% and ESG rates derived from data graciously provided by Dave MacPherson of Pick224.com. If you're unaware, I build my own database of prospect data that is available to any Patron of the project. As of time of writing (Feb 16, 2021), I've tracked 268 performances across 99 players from all over the planet, which is already well on the way to surpassing my database for the 2020 Draft. That's largely thanks to your support and motivation to continue the work, so I hope that what I provide in return is valuable. All of this provides the backbone to how I construct my list, while also considering what I'm seeing with my eyeballs saved as 6 gigabytes of MP4s.

If you're unfamiliar with my data, here's a brief outline of what I'm indicating below:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >800 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

With that all taken care of, here's the list!

Tier 1 - I Just Like 'em a Bit More...

Lots of changes here since November. Luke Hughes is still locked in at the top end, but what I've tracked of Beniers and his teammates, plus his exceptional World Junior performance all factor into him being the #1 player on my list. Could I consider Lysell or Eklund at 1? Potentially by the end of the year, but I feel as though the potential with the top 3 names could be more impactful in all areas of the game in the NHL.
Why Beniers at 1? He's a positive outlier in my tracking with regards to his transition game, his two-way energy is exceptional, and his ability to create shot attempts for his linemates is completely unparalleled. Of 68.3 SAT/60 Michigan has taken with Beniers on the ice, 34.6 of them have come off Beniers, or through a Beniers pass. Just Xavier Bourgault and Matthew Coronato are responsible for a comparable percentage of their team's overall offense, and neither have as projectable a transition game offensively in my opinion. Beniers also is completing dangerous passes at double the rate those other two are.
Jesper Wallstedt is just a robot. I don't know a ton about goaltending specifically, but he seems so dialed in constantly in almost any situation. Square to the puck, not wasting motion with his legs, staying calm in the net, there's a lot that really stands out to me. No draft eligible goaltender has ever played more than 10 games in an SHL season and put up a .900 save percentage. The last goaltender of any kind to play that amount of games at that level was in 1999. Wallstedt is a net positive stopping pucks relative to his workload, and he has a strong documented track record of stopping pucks at multiple levels. If he's a franchise goaltender, he could be the most valuable player at the top end of this draft, and he certainly deserves consideration in this range.
I've been asked already about Lysell > Eklund, and yes, when you look at production, it should be the other way around, but I see Eklund playing top minutes with Alexander Holtz and Jacob Josefson, some high end SHL talents, and Lysell playing about half the 5v5 minutes Eklund is playing in a brand new program after a midseason transition. I lean towards favouring Lysell's pace, underrated two way game, and ability to attack the net with the puck over Eklund's intelligent, agile approach. Eklund thrives off of evasion off the boards with the puck, perimeter playmaking, and strong off-puck offensive instincts, and is certainly not a huge step down, but Lysell is one of a very small number of players who excites me almost every time he steps on the ice at every level I've seen him this season.

Tier 2 - A.K.A. Tier 1B

My early views of Owen Power were troubling to say the least, but I'll admit that he's improved in my latest game of tracking and in recent weeks. If he gets a head of steam going with the puck on his stick, he's borderline unstoppable. His passing game, especially in the offensive zone can be exceptional. The trouble with him largely surrounds his lack of side to side mobility away from the puck to reliably close out transitions and box out opponents. He's allowing far too many pucks inside to the middle of the ice, and under pressure, his ability to settle pucks and get them to safety can completely collapse. Putting him at #1 in my view is a huge, huge risk where you're hoping he can adjust to the NHL game when he seems to still have trouble shutting play down defensively and defusing offensive pressure at the NCAA level. Top ten pick that could be a middle pair puck rusher with nice offensive tools? I could see it. I'm just not surprised he and Johnson's DefCat% are so poor.
Speaking of Kent Johnson, he's arguably the most gifworthy player in this draft, but his pace and decisionmaking tendencies are troublesome. He tries to go one on one more often than you'd like, and can ignore clear passing options leading to far more work for himself than is necessary. His work rate away from the puck is underrated and he's capable of turning play around, but he's a pretty big boom or bust player in my view. Another year or two at college would be advisable to simplify his processing of the game at high pace, improving his strength, while retaining the remarkable skill he's gifted with.
Aaty Raty has been flirting with significant improvements in his game. I tracked a U20 level game of his and it was unfair to the opponent. Just an incredible performance, with his return to the Liiga showing clear signs of improvement. His intelligence, agility, skill, transition game and ability to get shots off from inside dangerous areas are all there, if inconsistent at times. He's playing more of a physical brand recently, but he still retains strong fundamentals that could pay significant dividends if things break right.
Yes, that's Simon Robertsson in there. I've absolutely loved what I've seen of him over the year. Early in the year I saw a highly offensive leaning, defensively negligible skilled winger with tremendous agility and a remarkable shot, but over time, he's improved on his ability to cover ice away from the puck, and has been getting his chances at the SHL level without looking out of place. His defensive game has gotten more reliable, but he's not likely going to be a tremendous two-way force. He's exciting, his data at the J20 level was dominant, and I think there's huge potential for an offensive scoring winger here that puts him in this group.
Yes, Robertsson is above Simon Edvinsson here. Edvinsson's game has certainly settled down as the year goes on, and in my tracking, he seems to have found a sweet spot in the Allsvenskan. He's a player who can be a ton of fun to watch until he isn't. His puck management needed to simplify far more often, and that seems to be happening, but he's unafraid to attack the neutral zone with skill and power through his skating. His DSAT% through all this is still 62.2%, and his ability to shut down defensive transitions is highly underrated. Risky, absolutely. Stash him in Sweden for a few years and continue to work on his fundamentals, and there could be a really interesting two-way defenseman.
I honestly don't have a ton to say about Brandt Clarke. He's improved game by game, with underrated defensive results, but I question his pace outside the defensive zone, his passing vision, and projectability to play the style he loves to play, but I will not count him out at all.

Tier 3 - The Rock Solids

All of these names are really reliable names that I think could turn into useful auxiliary pieces.
Names like Sillinger, Rosen, and Guenther show great offensive potential, Sillinger and Rosen especially for their shooting potential. Guenther is a tough one to place considering how much he's playing, but what I saw in the AJHL didn't quite meet my expectations, but I'll be on him quick once he starts playing again.
Oskar Olausson has been playing in the SHL for a while, and I'm not 100% sure there's a true offensive weapon down the road, but he's been using his size effectively, and he's an efficient player per puck touch. He finds open ice at high speed in offensive transitions, and has skill to evade defenders in open ice. A two-way winger to place in your middle six seems perfectly reasonable in this range, and Olausson feels like a safe bet to get to that point.
I just really liked Logan Stankoven last season and really wish he were playing. If he's available in the 2nd round like some rankings seem to indicate, I'd take a rambunctious little guy who can shoot.
Fyodor Svechkov might be one of the most underrated players in the draft. His data shows all the telltale signs of a really good player on a really bad team. His DSAT% of 38% is admittedly bad. His Pass% of 61.3% is also bad. Lada generates just 9.8 dangerous shot attempts/60 with Svechkov on the ice at 5v5. All of this is bad, but, Svechkov is #12 in my tracking in total offensive transitions, and #6 in controlled offensive transitions. His OCZT% of 75% at those workloads puts him tied for 2nd with Joshua Roy behind Matthew Coronato. With the skating and pace he brings at the Russian 2nd division pro level, I feel as though that's more proejctable than the highly positional, relatively low pace transition game that Coronato and Roy bring. Svechkov is a big-time mystery box, but he has a skill under pressure that I haven't seen in many this year. I think there's a lot to like, especially if he finds his way onto a better Russian program. As a centre, his transition game is excellent at the VHL level on a team as lacklustre as Lada Togliatti, so with time, I'm hopeful.

Tier 4 - Big Time Maybes

I think most of these players could be complimentary pieces focused primarily on offense, but I like McTavish's intensity which together with his shooting talent puts him at the top.
Zach L'Heureux has fallen off a bit. He doesn't think through his play as much as I'd like, he can disappear in his own end, and the potential he shows doesn't come out as much as it could. I got similar feelings as I did with Dawson Mercer, but maybe a step below in terms of pure upside. He could be higher by the end of the year, but I've wanted more out of him more often than he's impressed me.
If Nikita Chibrikov brought more of his best every shift, he'd be much higher. He's insanely skilled and creative, but his defensive game is almost nonexistent to the point of being a detriment. There's a long way to go, but patience could pay off.
Carson Lambos and Daniil Chayka just strike me as perfectly fine options to fill out your defense group with. You won't have to worry a ton about either, but their ability to drive play with the puck is hit or miss. Lambos in the Liiga shows the importance of playing at high pace as he felt a bit overwhelmed with the intensity level, and seemed to be a bit unsettled. All of this is forgivable, but these two defenders to me are likely to be reliable, if not exciting at 5v5.
Speaking of exciting, Scott Morrow is in here. Tony Ferrari's interview with him was highly enlightening and encouraging, and only made me like the guy more. His skating, skill, and all-around offensive game at the prep level is absolutely outstanding. His data is laughably ridiculous. 81% DSAT%, 81% passing on 103 attempts per 60 5v5 minutes, an 88.7% OCZT%, 19.4% DCZT%, and has a staggering 94.7% success rate entering the offensive zone with control. If there was a single player outside the top tiers that could become a truly great defenseman, he's the one I'd put money on and expect a good payout. I'm hopeful he plays a bit in the USHL, but I'm willing to bet on his potential. His defensive game can be a bit patchy, getting beat in low pace situations where you wish he'd put in a few extra percent, but once that puck hits his stick, if he's focused, he's ridiculous. A couple seasons with North Dakota working through some potentially bad habits with the puck, and a bit of a lack of defensive intensity at times, and this guy could be one of the more exciting defenders in a team's pipeline.
I'm already ready for the Samoskevich > Coronato discussion. Samoskevich's production and data is not on Coronato's level, but Coronato plays with much older USHL linemates, is a 2002, and doesn't have the speed or skill that Samoskevich can display. I don't mind either player, but I feel there's more runway with what Samoskevich can do now, but Coronato could be a nice complimentary offensive piece with solid power play passing vision.

Tier 5 - The Meat of the Draft

This is arguably the most interesting group of players in the entire draft to me. Full of fun, big swings, and potentially some great defensive players that I'm sticking my neck out on.
Ayrton Martino is almost all offense, but he's remarkably explosive, skilled, and puts opponents on their heels constantly. He's skilled, has legitimate dual-threat offense, and his tracked data so far is absolutely outstanding. If he can bring his work rate up away from the puck and avoid cheating in the defensive zone chasing offense, there could be a special player here. On the other hand, he's prone to earning a few breakaways in every game I've seen and he could be a player where you take the pros with the cons as he scores in bunches.
I'm still on the Jiri Tichacek train. His recent performances at the junior level have been impressive, and he's a defenseman where I'm betting on his mobility and skill long term. He's a project, and needs to refine his puck play to be quicker, more reliable and consistent, but when he's dialed in, he's a tremendous undersized defenseman. He can close gaps defensively well with very good results, and if he gets stronger on his feet, it could translate well to the NHL game leading with his stick, positioning and covering ice with his mobility before relying on physical play. I'm a big believer in the fundamental tools on Tichacek.
Brent Johnson is a guy who I'll go to bat for after being turned onto him just a few weeks ago. His game has evolved and adapted to the USHL level over the year and he's playing tremendous amounts of ice time for the Stampede. He's remarkably skilled and evasive on his feet, he's one of the better players at separating pucks from opponents that I've tracked, and when he connects on strong breakout passes, it gets hockey nerds like me out of my seat. It's inconsistent and he can panic under pressure, but that seems to be going away as he gets more experienced. If he continues to improve in games 4-7 with the results he's been putting up with regards to goal impacts, he could easily be a name I look at in the 1st round.
For Jake Martin, see Brent Johnson. I like Martin's puck separation ability, and his ability to use mobility to stick to forecheckers in the neutral zone, but Johnson's skill and puck management seems to have a higher ceiling. Martin could very easily be a modern defensive defenseman who you don't notice often for the right reasons. He should be available much later than where I have him listed, but I've been impressed with him all season long, especially relative to other NTDP defenseman like Hreschuk, Schmidt, and Behrens.
I need to get back on tracking Franceso Pinelli, but I've been underwhelmed with his play in the Slovenian league. That is not a good hockey league, and while his data was dominant, he wasn't playing with any kind of speed or pace that felt anything close to high end. Other players who haven't played all season have looked better in their early games, but again I need to go back and check in again.
I've got names like Coronato, Pastujov, and Pinelli in here for all similar reasons. I just don't know how their games translate as they are to the next level. Pastujov is skilled with nice diverse offensive tools, and both he and Coronato drive great offensive transition results, but once they're faced with pressure consistently, especially having tracked Pastujov against a mediocre NCAA program, there are questions. These guys could very easily be nice efficient pieces that can work with faster, more exciting linemates, but I'm not clamoring for them where I've seen them ranked by a few others.
Lorenzo Canonica didn't blow me away in the World Juniors, but his play in Shawinigan has been rock solid, with a great release on his shot, and solid pace and skill to evade defenders. He may end up down in Tier 6, but I see flashes of high skill at high pace out of him that I like.
If I'm being honest, I've liked Ville Koivunen over Samu Tuomaala, but Tuomaala's fundamental talents feel like a higher level relative to Koivunen. Koivunen brings intelligence and efficiency, but Tuomaala has pace and skill that you really wish he'd be more aggressive with.

Tier 6 - Big Bois and Big Swings

There's a lot of small players who are big swings in here. Namely, Jeremy Wilmer, Marcus Almquist, Lukas Gustafsson and Sean Behrens. Outside of that, a lot of players that have been impressive in specific areas, or low upside guys who might be useful pieces down the road.
Gustafsson is barely playing on a powerful Chicago Steel team, but his production has been good in exclusively 5v5 minutes. His skating and passing ability in conjunction is at a high level, able to generate speed quickly and fire hard passes all over the ice. He's gotten barely any fanfare this year, and if you can land him as a late round swing, I'd throw his name out there. A defender playing well under 10 5v5 minutes a night scoring at a 25 point pace over a full USHL season would an interesting case and relative to a teammate in this range Ryan Ufko, I've liked Gustafsson's pass execution, skill, and ability to generate speed a bit more, to be perfectly honest.
Ufko is an odd one. He has a heck of a shot from the point, but it doesn't come out super often as I've found he's locked in neutral zone play that isn't particularly exceptional. He's a smaller defender who plays small, doesn't have a ton of pace to his decisions or passing ability, and an overall low involvement in transitions going both directions with mediocre results going both directions.
Elias Stenman is underrated, especially if you can snag him as a swing in the later rounds. He's intelligent away from the puck and makes a living just making little plays to drive play in the right direction. I'm circling back on him but he seems to have translated to the men's level well considering he's on one of the worst teams in the HockeyEttan. His U20 data is also outstanding, but that's over just a 12 game sample.
David Gucciardi is one that I've come across due to his production and having been involved in a trade for Scott Morrow's rights a while back. He's a strong defender with a powerful stride and able to cover ice effectively, but the real fun is his shooting ability combined with the skill he has with the puck. His ability to corral odd pass attempts and turn them into something positive is notable, and his DCZT% of 22.2% is among the lowest I've tracked. His passing is literally very hit or miss, completing just 56.8% of his attempts, but his head often seems to be in the right place. Both Youngstown and Waterloo's forwards have issues driving play with speed and aggression, and many outlet passes are intercepted and shut down by opponents, but when Gucciardi gets going, he can really get going. Another one where if he's a late round swing, you could do much worse.

Tier 7 - Whipping Cupcakes

These are just a bunch of interesting names that aren't that much of a step up on my 8th tier. I really like what I've seen out of the young players here like Blake, Orr, Wong, Brown and Savage. Stjernborg, Poltapov, Katelevsky, and Vilen play relatively simple games that could translate if their fundamentals improve over time.
The Defensive Dmitri's are curious to me. Kuzmin and Kostenko are both very skilled, mobile, but not perfect. Kuzmin attempted a lacrosse goal at one point this year, and his mobility is almost worth betting on alone. His OCZT% and DCZT% split of 62.2% and 28.1% are notable for a men's league player, even if he's playing in Belarus. He's also maintaining control on 50% of his offensive zone entries, which for a defenseman is quite remarkable. Kostenko is a hard one to read for the same reasons Fyodor Svechkov is, but I've been a fan of his for a while and could be swayed to take him in the 2nd round if there was enough support for the idea.
I'm still waiting for Vlad Lukashevich to take the steps I thought he would, and he just hasn't shown a ton that wows you outside of being a good MHL defenseman with some nice skill, but it isn't there enough, and he doesn't push play nearly as often as you'd like for a defenseman with as much fun potential as him.
Joona Korhonen is a fun one I've just started tracking. He could easily end up in Tier 6 for his skill and fun factor, but Ilves' junior team was just awful with him on the ice in both games I've tracked, and his off-puck game seems to need plenty of work. He's fun, but I need to see more to be sure of what's there.
Kalle Ervasti is another interesting low upside defensive player. He covers ice well, moves pucks efficiently, and if he can start stitching together strong sequences turning play around, he could be an interesting player to pick up late.
Ethan Cardwell should've been drafted. If it were up to me, he would've been, and he's absolutely dismantling the Swedish 3rd division this year with pace and skill. He gets to dangerous areas, he attacks hard, and he's very nearly a draft year player this year. Of all the DY players loaned in the HockeyEttan, only William Stromgren comes close to the pure production Cardwell has put up, and his two way results have been better.

Tier 8 - Really Digging Deep...

Just a whole lot of "we'll see" here. Everyone loves to talk about Alexander Kisakov, but I don't think I buy the hype. If he's available in the 3rd round and beyond, we can talk, but his A-rating from CSS is a bit questionable. He gets to dangerous areas to shoot, has nice pace, and decent defensive results, but his passing is really hit or miss, and his ability to exit the defensive zone is significantly better than entering the offensive zone.
Alexander Suvorov, Olen Zellwegger, Cameron Berg, and Valtteri Karnaranta are just a ton of fun to watch at their respective levels, and Berg should've been the guy I took for Team Scouching at the end of the 2020 Draft, but alas, I am a coward.
Theo Jacobsson is a guy flying under the radar that I've really liked. He's gone from dominating the U18 level, to barely playing at the U20 level, to playing against men all in the same season, and there are adjustments that are hopefully on the way. He's skilled, pretty quick on his feet, and is one of the best overall transition players I've tracked with an OCZT%/DCZT% split of 86.7% and 35.7% respectively. Again, if you're talking 7th round swings on Europeans you can stash for four years, Jacobsson would be an interesting bet.
Jere Virolainen seems to have detractors, but he's a guy who is efficient whenever I've seen him with a few moments where I'm standing there going "ooooooh!". Creativity making plays below the goal line, physical play to free pucks up around the ice, skill under pressure to evade players, there's a lot to be interested in, just not super high in the draft.
Liam Gilmartin is slowly improving with the NTDP, and I think there's potential for an energy winger down the road. He's got a solid combination of speed, skill and work rate that could take him a ways, even if he isn't going to light up the scoreboard consistently. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play with more confidence and vision more often, because it often pays off for him when he does. He can be a bit overly simplistic, but if anything that means he could easily play a more straightforward role down an NHL lineup with his fundamental tools
Kirill Gerasimyuk is just a hilarious profile. A .900+ SPCT goaltender in the VHL, facing a hilarious 36 shots against per game with SKA-Varyagi in the MHL, and outperforming his 3.6 xGA per game allowing just 2.5 goals per game. He's faced 40+ shots 10 times in 25 appearances, and registered a .900 SPCT or more in every one. Just two MHL games have been below a .900 SPCT. Nine of his appearances have been over a .950 SPCT. He's a goalie who is facing many, many shots, and many, many dangerous shots, and stopping many of them. He's a guy I'd add to my list in the mid rounds and let him grow with SKA's program.

The Watchlist

And so, we get to the watchlist. Limited usage guys, guys I've had a good feeling about for reasons I can't explain, or curious data players who are outperforming what I've seen that I need to see more of.
Bennet Roßmy is playing second division German hockey, but he's got skill and size that I like. A good release, good international results, and solid pace all seem like something worth keeping an eye on, even if he doesn't get drafted.
Pick224 highlighted Olli Nikupeteri, and I was impressed checking him out. A great released paired with solid skill showed a curious player to keep an eye on.
I just love watching Dmitri Zugan skate. He's been playing more and more over the year, getting more and more confident, but he's going to need to attack the offensive zone with more aggression to produce more. The talent is there, the fun factor is there, and the work rate is high.
William Trudeau's data is excellent, but what I've tracked and seen of him is... not. Might need to circle back, but there's such a variance here that I might've picked his worst games to track. He's got solid mobility, and good offensive instincts with a nice shot from the point and good puck distribution ability, but a DSAT% of 21.4% and an OCZT% of 36% is underwhelming at best.
Aleksi Heimosalmi, Johnathan Myrenberg and Valtteri Koskela are defenders who can skate and that's why you bet on them long term. Miks Tumanovs is the same, but older and probably not a guy you draft, but I've loved his skill, size, and skating ability for such a big defender.
The Ufa bois are in here. Yegor Suchkov should've been drafted, Daniil Bashkirov was one of the more surprising Russians on the World Junior team, working his way from 13th forward to second line centre with a few notable moments on the penalty kill. Alexei Pustozyorov also has caught my eye, but he's a D+3 and might be one you keep an eye on to snag as a free agent if he continues to improve. Daniil Aimurzin has been very good in the VHL, and absolutely dominant in the MHL, but he's a D+1 that you might just keep an eye out for as he plays more in the KHL next year. I'd still push for Suchkov over all. He's just so much fun, and I watched him step on KHL ice for the first time ever, making a dang fool out of Vladislav Kolyachonok and Brennan Menell at the same time.
Elias Sjostrom caught my eye in his brief U20 appearances, but his U18 production is laughably ridiculous. He's mobile with a solid point shot, low viewings and a low level of play leave him down here.
Same goes for Karl Umegard. He's small but a little buzzsaw that's a ton of fun to watch. Really young, and might be a guy you watch develop for another year, but he's caught my eye a few times when he's played with MODO's U20 team.
Sebastian Lundman was a U18 beast who hasn't fully projected to the U20 level, but the data I tracked on him was promising. Nice dual threat offense, nice skill and evasiveness, but just not getting the results. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a step next year.

This year's draft has as significantly higher amount of shrugging from me than I'm used to. I get the feeling that if I'm working for an NHL team, I'm waiting for unheralded guys in the higher tiers to slip later than they should such as Tichacek, Johnson, Gucciardi, Martino, or even names like Scott Morrow or Logan Stankoven could. I'm most interested in the 2nd round range of my list and what might come out of that group. There are re-entries that I'd push for, but in terms of draft eligibles, there are only a few players that are flying under the radar that I truly feel confident about in terms of their projection. I'm really curious to see where this group ends up in 5-10 years, though. As I said, I don't believe it's as bad as some might say, but it's definitely not as exciting as the last two years where I've really dug into the group.

The 2021 Scouching Reports start in March, so stay tuned for those, NHL Rookie Reports are rolling in, and stay in the loop for more What Actually Happened To... installments both here on Scouching.ca and at McKeens.

We're still not out of the woods yet with COVID-19, so I'll take a bit of time to remind you to stay as distanced as you can, wear a mask whenever you do leave your domicile, and do your part to look out for your community. It's been a really, really hard year for everyone, but the less careful we are, the longer this goes on. I want to get back into the rink just like everyone else and meeting all of you lovely people, but there's still work to do that starts with the individual.

- Will

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Scouching's Preliminary 2021 Top-31+ NHL Draft Rankings

11/18/2020

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First off, I hope you and yours are all doing well. This year has been really strange, really frustrating, and above all, just really hard. The COVID-19 Pandemic has been an extremely difficult adjustment for many, and to all our medical professionals out there, you're all just a bunch of heroes. I honestly don't know what day it is most days anymore, but regardless of what's going on in the world, hockey seems to be stumbling along around the world adapting as things shift and change just like the rest of us. It's been unique so far, but luckily there's been enough to watch and track where I feel somewhat confident about at least the first 3 tiers of players for the 2021 Draft. As of time of writing (November 18, 2020), I've gathered data on 43 skaters across 54 games played, which granted is a small sample, but all of these players are players I've laid eyes on over the last two seasons, and many of these are players I've tracked data on so far this season.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data. A demo version of the rankings and full data sheet is available at the $5 tier and above.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

Before we get started with a list, I'd just like to put a calm reminder out there to please be selfless and look out for yourself, your family, and your community by wearing a mask, washing/sanitizing your hands, staying distant, staying within your household as much as possible, and when the time is right, receiving whatever vaccine is available. This virus is horrible and has taken far, far too many lives. Protecting yourself, yours, and those who you many never encounter starts with you.

Alright, behold. Scouching's Top-31+ preliminary rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft. Please keep in mind that Pick224 doesn't seem to be updated for this season, so the metrics derived from Dave's data mining is not available. Also, data streams and sample sizes are all over the place, so take the metrics with a salt mine's worth of salt.

Tier 1 - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This could very easily be ordered very, very differently come the 2021 NHL Draft. It might honestly come down to what style of play you just... like.

Luke Hughes is #1 to me for a combination of his size, age, skating ability, and offensive lean with excellent two-way potential. He's a tremendous driver of offensive transitions and has taken a big step with his skating from last season. Owen Power is almost a full year older, and I've found Hughes to be the more exciting player as of right now, but it's close.
Yes, there's a goalie at 3 here. I love Wallstedt. He's squared up in form constantly. He stops pucks a lot. He's calm, collected, and already doing very well at the SHL level, something no first time draft eligible has done before. If you're in such an uncertain draft, and there's a chance of landing a franchise goalie, could we see a goalie go at #1 if they've been playing in the SHL all year? I wouldn't count it out. Where Yaroslav Askarov might be a bit more reactionary and athletic, Wallstedt is calculated, smart, and focused, and I've greatly enjoyed watching him when he's played this year.
I can't help but be disappointed in Aatu Räty so far this season. I've described him as "Anton Lundell ratcheted up a bit" and I still stand by that. He's highly responsible defensively, smart with his positioning, and has a fluidity and skill that I didn't see in Lundell last year. The catch is that Räty's offensive game seems extremely hit-or-miss. I've seen Cody Ceci-esque misses on shots from in the slot, but I've seen him put one in the top of the net from near the goal line. He's a big case of "wait-and-see". While the potential is there for him to go #1 in my view, I think I lean more in the direction of Räty going later than where I have him slotted.
Fabian Lysell might be the guy portrayed as an offensive dynamo (which he is) but he's an extremely underrated two-way player in the games I've seen. He works hard and it pays off. He had an outrageously good game in the 1st game I tracked, and his 2nd wasn't too much worse. He can score, pass, play away from the puck, and he's one of these guys I could watch play the game all day. It seems silly, but the only thing holding him back from being higher on my list is that the quality of defender in this top group.
Clarke is a curious one. I think his style of play is really hard to pull off in the NHL, so I'm withholding him from a top slot until I can see him play this year and track some games.
William Eklund is just going to likely be a really, really rock solid meat and potatoes hockey player. Really great two-way player who does good things almost every time he's stepping on the ice. There's a lot of Lucas Raymond echoes here, but I don't see quite the same talent level. Just an admirable player I'll have my eye on all year.
I really, really like Beniers. I've been watching him for three seasons now, and he's just such a solid offensive mind. Tremendous results in game 1 of tracking, a great combination of footspeed, skill, adaptability and creativity. A great offensive pivot who can drive great transition rates offensively and supply linemates with shot assists in the offensive zone, as of right now, I have more time for projecting Beniers as a top level prospect before teammate Kent Johnson.

Tier 2 - ...More Like Tier 1B

Lambos is a player who gives me a bit of pause. Defenders who are "good at everything but not elite at much" seem to always underperform their draft slot. Not saying it's impossible, and I love Lambos' ability to work the blueline, distribute the puck and participate in an offense, but I just haven't seen enough that can quite get him higher on my list.
I want Simon Edvinsson to be a thing so badly. The raw talent here could very easily put him in Tier 1, but goodness gracious his puck distribution and ability to think under pressure can be woefully inadequate. He's driving great defensive transition metrics, solid shot differentials, and has a tremendous combination of skating and skill for a defender, but this is a defender near 120 pass attempts/60 through two tracked games, which would put him 2nd in my 2020 tracking, and missing on 45% of those passes. That is not good enough. Luckily, improving in that area of the game should unlock a tremendous player. He might require patience, but the tools are there.
On Kent Johnson, I get it. The skill is there in spades, but in my view, that's largely where the high end ability ends. I'm not huge on how he gets around the ice, how he thinks under heavy pressure, and compared to a player like Matthew Beniers, I come away thinking Beniers might have a better two way game as a quarterback down the middle. We'll see on Johnson, but I'm not on the same train as many others so far.
L'Heureux, Sillinger, Robertsson, Stankoven, and Bourgeault are just really fun players to watch. Bourgeault and L'Heureux both had excellent first tracked games in terms of offensive transitions and creating offense, especially L'Heureux.
Nikita Chibrikov could be as good as he wants to be. I see a very, very inactive player away from the puck far too often regardless of what level he's playing at, but when the puck is on his stick and he's got the confidence flowing, he's a tremendous player. Great skill to open up the ice and manipulate opponents, a great release he could use from dangerous areas more often, and a sense of patience that can be hard to find.
Chaz Lucius is the probably the guy I have lower than most, but it's more philosophical to me. He's an exceptional finisher with a diverse set of skills to use on goaltenders to put pucks where they are not. Beyond that, I'm not sure what's there. He's wasn't as good of a shot differential driver with the U17 team last year, and his game is very reliant on goal scoring, which implies that other players are doing legwork for him, but he's still an exceptional goal scorer. When he's back from injury, I'll be tracking him early, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a guy that's lower on my list than most. He's still very good at what he does, though.
I don't quite get why others haven't latched onto Cole Huckins yet. He's a 6'3" centre (granted often playing the wing when I've seen him) with a great transition game going both directions who attempted a comparable number of dangerous passes as Zach L'Heureux in Game 1. He drives through pressure very well, but can also leave players behind with his speed and skill. I've got an eye on him and I've been pleasantly surprised at how he's generating his results so far.
I've only tracked a game of Samu Tuomaala, and I frankly was disappointed. You can see what he's all about for sure, but he was more of an auxiliary player when I tracked him. He took good care of the puck, but wasn't involved much offensively, and his transition game was b a d. I still have tons of time for him, but I was surprised at what I saw both with my eyeballs and in the data.
Well, I think I've found the small player I latch onto for the year in Jeremy Wilmer. He's agile on his feet, has exceptional skill, and has dual threat offense that I just can't stop watching. He isn't playing a ton with the U18 team, but I hope his minutes climb over the year. He drove great shot differentials in the game I tracked, but seemed to have trouble getting going in terms of generating offense at 5v5. I chalk that up to how the game goes sometimes, but if that holds up over the year, he might end up further down my list. He just gives me a feeling that he's going to work out, and be a great offensive player with some time and patience.

Tier 3 - One Small Step Down

Scott Morrow is simply hilarious. If he were playing in the USHL or NCAA the way he plays at the prep level, he could be a phenomenal defenseman and ranked much, much higher. His defensive reads can be a bit hit or miss at times, but goodness gracious outside of that, he has immense talent. His size, forwards skating ability and mobility, the skill he's got to pull pucks around the ice and evade pressure, and make little plays everywhere to maintain possession are spectacular traits. If you've got HockeyTV, go check him out. He's punching way, way below his weight class with Shattuck and it shows in the data.
Sean Behrens is a small defender with great offensive tools, but outside the OZ, I have questions. I think his ability to cover ice for a small defenseman is not quite there, and his lack of strength and explosiveness on his feet can be an issue. I have time for the guy, and I'll keep an eye on him, but there are other defenders on the NTDP like Aidan Hreschuk, and even Jake Martin (who just missed the cut here) that I've felt are more projectable talents right now.
William Strömgren is a big, skilled winger who I think has tons of potential. He drives great shooting metrics, rock solid transition data, and can be a real thrill to watch. MODO has some really interesting draft eligibles this year in Theo Jacobsson and Karl Umegård, but Strömgren takes the cake to me.
Marcus Almquist is basically a more projectable version of Zion Nybeck in my view. He's got speed and agility where Nybeck didn't, and the metrics he drove in Game 1 are outstanding, especially compared to Nybeck. His Offensive Threat crossed 30, with excellent shot selection and playmaking ability. If Wilmer's 5v5 game never reaches what I think it could be, Almquist is right there as the small player I'll be pushing for.
On the polar opposite of the height scale is Samuel Helenius. He is a very, very big boy who I'd buy into. His mobility and fluidity are already at a pretty high level in my view, and in Game 1 of tracking, registered a dangerous pass attempt rate of 14.3, putting him 8th in my tracking thus far. Who's #1? Scott Morrow, of course. Helenius is very, very raw, but I think there's potential for a defense first player that can chip in offensively.
Lada Togliatti is a... team. They've got two great draft eligibles in Fyodor Svechkov and Dmitri Kostenko, but refuse to play them together. Without those two involved in play, that team can be downright hopeless. Svechkov went 12/14 in controlling offensive transitions and went 10/13 in preventing control on defensive transitions, with 3 shot attempts that counted for 25% of his team's shot attempts in Game 1. I'm a believer in Svechkov, and Kostenko to a lesser extent, but Lada is one of those teams where how their unit functions naturally makes it really tough to get a good read on the specific prospects your looking at.
I've found that Hugo Gabrielsson does a really good job covering for Simon Edvinsson's tendency to... panic. While not extremely active across bluelines in the limited 5v5 time he got in Game 1, he drove good shooting metrics, landed a high danger attempt connected on 11 of 13 passes, including a dangerous pass attempt leading to one of his two shot assists in the <9 5v5 minutes he played. I think his data will improve the more I track, but he's one to watch regardless.

Overall Thoughts

It's a weird group. I don't really see the drop in talent levels that we've seen in recent years, and the talent seems to be coming from all over the world more than before. It feels as if instead of a certain team or country having "their guy" to compete with Canada's best, many countries are developing better and better talent more and more as time goes on, which is clouding this year's draft. Let me also just say that 2022 looks to be similar. There are a lot of "Glitter Players" that have caught my eye in tracking this year that are eligibles next year, and they're everywhere. The interconnectivity and globalism provided in modern society seems to be leveling the playing field significantly. I mean, the oldest players on this list would've been around 4 years old when I got a Facebook account. They likely don't remember a time before YouTube and high speed internet connections where anyone can share tips and information as they please to the whole world. Judging by the breadth of interesting talent for the 2021 Draft, I don't really mind.

Thank you very much for perusing this, I hope you enjoyed, and please remember to look out for yourself and everyone else by taking the proper COVID precautions and being careful with your risk management. It might save a life you may never meet, and it may save the life of someone you love.

Toodles!

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Scouching's Final 2020 NHL Draft Ranking

9/30/2020

1 Comment

Hello again. This has been a strange summer, no? Yes, it has. Anyway, welcome to the actual final ranking for the 2020 Draft. I've had a change of philosophy to remove some players where I don't feel that I could make a reasonable pitch for them to be drafted. I believe you have to be passionate and believe in every kid you draft, and have fundamental strengths you can reinforce in them and accept that there are weaknesses in every player that have to be managed and improved accordingly to maximize overall impact on the ice. Ranking players where I'm not sure of their likely prospects in the NHL just feels... greasy.

So, 96 players ranked this time around with a watchlist of curious cases to either keep an eye on if undrafted, or to take a swing on in the late rounds. My overall read on this year is overall quite positive. I think there are some exceptional talents available at the top, with a large number of potentially useful core contributors, with a ton of really interesting skilled swings to be taken through the 2nd round. I've really been impressed with the European crop of talent this year especially, and I'm excited to track their careers as they develop.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full rankings at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

So, I won't bore you further. Check out the full rankings below!

The Watchlist

Daniel Ljungman was a guy who I've been keeping tabs on a bit, and I really like how he can navigate through the neutral zone and attack the net. I think he's a long term project, but he's hit the ground running this year.
Mitchell Miller is on the watchlist. If he falls endlessly due to off ice issues, he could be a guy you look at late, but those issues are troublesome in the least and you'll really have to do your homework. He's a well-rounded, explosive defenseman, but I can't recall a draft prospect ever came with the documented legal issues that Miller does.
Ty Jackson is a fun USHL re-entry. Just 13 days older than Jack Quinn but he's Small, but shifty, quick, and makes a creative team with his twin brother Dylan. He's an exciting player, and will certainly have my eye on him at Northeastern.
Josh Lawrence is a hard-working quick centre who seems to have a game that's 85% of the way to being great. He puts in the work on his feet at both ends, he can use crossovers and power his way into the neutral zone to facilitate transitions, but controlling pucks and working with his hands and feet in tandem at a high pace needs to come a ways. I think he's a fun long term bet, similar to Xavier Simoneau last season.
Danil Alalykin is just a ton of fun to watch. Crafy with his hands under high pressure, excellent goal scoring ability in tight, and likely a member of his KHL team when he returns from injury.
I'll totally credit David St. Louis over at EliteProspects for bringing up Christopher Merisier-Ortiz. He's right up my alley for skilled and agile offensive defenders. His data looked good last year, he kept it up this year, and I could easily use a later pick on him.
People seem to pick up NTDP guys they just really like for various reasons, and mine is Landon Slaggert. He seems bigger than his listed size and moves with a lot of power around the ice. Really raw and had some trouble attacking the net and driving offense, but I liked his transition game and footwork moving offensively with the puck.

Tier 8 - The Curious Cases

I just really like Benjamin Baumgartner. He's so much fun with his agility, offensive positioning, and aggression with the puck. He played in the NLA, and was one of the best generators of high danger shot attempts in all my tracking this year.
Dylan Peterson is similar to Landon Slaggert mentioned earlier. Their ability in transition remind me of John Beecher, but putting offense together is an issue for both. Peterson has some great moments combining his size, crossovers, and his puck protection skill, but doesn't seem to cook much of a dinner with it. Great raw tools and a great project, so I could see him going much earlier.
Lukas Svejkovsky is a guy I really believe in. Good enough skater, fun skill at a variety of paces, drove the 5th most individual high danger shot attempts in my sample, with the 13th most dangerous pass attempts/60. More offensive leaning, but there's potential, I think.
Juuso Mäenpää is a firecracker. Skilled as it gets, can be highly creative in the offensive zone, but so, so small. He's so small. A total longshot, but he could be a great story. He's quick and skilled, but will need to be even quicker to cover his lack of length, let alone the physical strength and resiliency on the puck that he'll have to develop.
Victor Mancini is a fascinating study of a USHL prospect deciding to spend his junior career in Sweden. I think it shows great maturity and outside the box thinking to trust what developmental system suits you best. He's playing top pair minutes, has improved his offense already this year, and if he can get a bit smoother on his feet and relaxed on the defensive side of the puck, he could be a very curious bet long term. He faced the 53rd least defensive transitions of all players tracked (i.e., a high workload), but had the 13th least controlled defensive transitions, putting his DCZT% at 5th in my tracking.

Tier 7 - The Potential Contributors

Tristen Robins is a guy who I wanted to do a full profile on, but the more I saw, the less I felt I could really bring up about him. He's an exciting offensive forward, but his potential at centre feels limited. I don't see the work rate off the puck yet, but his explosive stride and offensive work rate brings promise. A talented off-puck scorer as well, he could be a nice complimentary piece.
I've just really liked Maxim Groshev for what he is. He works hard, plays hard, drives solid play around the net, and is playing a solid role in the KHL.
Ryan O'Rourke might be one of the most misidentified players in the draft when I look at the data. I don't see a tremendous defensive player, but his ability to pass the puck into the NZ is impressive, and he can step up in the offensive zone often to push for chances himself. I question his mobility and processing of play at higher pace, but he could be an interesting project.
The more I watched Lukas Cormier, the less projectable I find his game. Lots of skill and a solid passing profile in transition, but I'm just not sure it's enough to overcome his defensive limitations and size deficiency.
Speaking of size deficiency, I'm more interested in Anton Johannesson. Ruthless passer all over the ice, great skill to open up passing lanes and open up the ice a bit, with daring thought processing that might need refinement, but he's a creative player that could fall far more than he should.
I've really enjoyed watching Ryan Francis. Really interesting player that slowed down the back half. Hard worker with really interesting speed and skill that could overcome the strength deficiencies he shows.
Thomas Bordeleau's offensive game on it's own would probably be enough to put him in a tier higher, but his skating, pace, and defensive pursuit play all give me pause. Tremendously creative offensive player with great skill, but he's a bit of a project in terms of a full 200 foot impact player.
In a similar vein, Tyson Foerster is right in that Bordeleau wheelhouse. Defensive play needs to come a ways, but once the puck is in the offensive zone, he becomes a dangerous offensive generator through passes and shots. There's potential, but not sure it's quite enough to be a 1st round pick.

Tier 6 - Contributors and Big Swings

I'm not a "Zion Nybeck is underrated" guy, but I think he has potential to overcome his shortcomings. He adapts to heavy pressure well, and shows interesting creativity and is certainly not selfish with the puck. When he chips in on defensive transitions, he's able to strip pucks off opponents well enough. Big time longshot, but there are reasons he's an SHL player this year.
Guhle/Schneider will be gone well before I'm ready to pick them. I think they'll both get plenty of chances to play in the NHL, and they could be solid impact players defensively, but beyond that, I have big questions.
I'm pro-Jean-Luc Foudy. I don't care what anyone else things. The raw tools and potential value he could add to an offense is hard to ignore. He's so much fun, so fast, generates tremendous offensive transition data, and drove way more play that could've led to production than his point output would indicate.
Emil Heineman has climbed and climbed. I think he's got middle six winger potential. A real wrecking ball with some finesse around the net. I like his work rate and smooth skating talent a little more than someone like Torgersson, he just feels more projectable. Finer points with regards to clogging up the neutral zone and reading opposing offenses is a work in progress, but his trajectory since last season has been exceptional.
Brendan Brisson is an interesting cowboy hockey case. Excellent dangerous offense, awful dangerous defense. He's inactive and careless away from the puck, but he's brilliant per puck touch with excellent well-rounded offensive ability. I could easily see him ranked much higher than this, but personally I just think his game is a little too limited for anything higher than the mid-20s. Could it get there? Sure, but a middle six offensive forward with defensive shortcomings feels more likely.
Speaking of players that could go much higher, I'd admit that Jeremie Poirier is ranked very low, but this tier spreads into the 1st and I'd consider it if I had a confident development staff. His defensive game is... bad. Positioning, pursuit, physical work rate, it's just not there. One of the few players I'd call "selfish" with the puck too often. I find his skating and speed generation is a little overrated, his offensive transition game is measurably worse than many defenders higher than him (a trait shared by Emil Andrae), and I just have trouble seeing a trajectory for him long term that likely leaves him as a top end defender. Great lateral mobility and tremendous skill, but just so, so many question marks.
Alex Pashin is as big a home run swing as it gets, but a well rounded offensive firecracker who works his tail off every shift with great quickness, skill and creativity is something right up my alley. He's years away from NHL success, but he's already pushing for a role in the KHL with a very strong group of 2001 and 2002 kids from Ufa. Similar to Johannesson, he'll be available later than he should in all liklihood.

Tier 5 - Scorers and Upside

Looking back at my data, I'm still dumbfounded at some of the offensive results Lukas Reichel generated. He could be one of the better complimentary scorers to come out of this draft. His instincts are outstanding in open space and he constantly finds ways to drive offense. He's still at the top of my tracking in individual high danger shot generation, and was a primary source for offensive chances on Berlin.
Jacob Perreault could very well be pitched to me at a higher slot. He has so much talent with his skill, ability to drive up the middle of the ice or use the boards to his advantage, he's a creative playmaker with a great shot on top of it. More confidence with the puck to push his shot volume closer to the net would do him well, and he'll need to learn some lessons about a full 200-foot effort, but the talent is undeniable.
Ozzy Wiesblatt was a guy who blew me away after tracking him. There's just so much potential there if he fills out a bit and can shore up his game when the puck is on the other team's sticks. He's relentlessly focused on attacking, generate a ton of offensive threat, and if you liked Seth Jarvis and can't land him, Wiesblatt is not a bad consolation that could be available much later.
On that note, Daniil Gushchin is one of the most exciting players available. His two-way game is underrated, his results were excellent, he scores and sets up some highlight reel goals, and he could easily come out as one of the steals of the draft if he can get a bit stronger on his feet and cut down on the mental lapses with the puck to keep his transition game a bit simpler at times.
Jan Mysak landed the first "Mr. Overrated" award, but he's still a very good hockey player. I have big questions about how he projects as his game is now, but he flashed some real potential in transition with his skill, agility and straight line speed. Putting the pieces together especially with the puck in the offensive zone seems to be an issue at 5v5, but he could be a great bet in the 2nd round should he slip a bit.

Tier 4- Potential Core Players

I'm not sure what else I can say about Marat. He's the "Mr. Stick Your Neck Out" this year, and he'll be a fascinating case study for me to look back on. I adore his approach to the game and he's exactly what I look for in a centre. He's extremely raw, but the raw tools when he showcases his best hockey are absolutely disgusting. He's fast, skilled, selfless with the puck, and drives tremendous defensive results with a great transition game to go with it. Constantly involved in play, constantly supporting his line, constantly anticipating play, I just can't not love his game.
I could be convinced to swing on Jake Sanderson much earlier than 14, no question. He's a great transition defender with excellent shut down talent through the neutral zone. I think the offense is there, but he's a great example of a modern defensive defender. Shut down play to avoid defensive cycles in the first place, turn the puck around, and get it into the offensive zone with control. He's very good at it, and I think better than his production indicates. Top 5 pick? Probably not to me, but the later part of the Top 10? We can chat
I haven't been particularly thrilled with Noel Gunler now that I've seen more of other players, looking back at my video clips, and seeing him play in the early parts of the SHL season. He could be a good middle six two-way winger with offensive flair, and his results weren't bad at all, but his defensive game is hit or miss, and his involvement in play is also very inconsistent. He could be a good bet in the 20s, but I'm not sure I see him as that Top 15 talent that I had all season.

Tier 3 - Should-Be Core Players

I'm a believer in Askarov, and if he's ranked similarly to an Anton Lundell, would you rather land a potential very good #2 or 3 centre? Or gamble on a potential franchise goaltender? I may not fully understand what I'm looking at with Askarov, but I like what I see. He's calm, collected, covers the net effectively, has the athleticism to cover cross-ice play extremely well, and is already a core piece in the KHL at 18 years old. If he starts slipping, he quickly becomes potentially excellent value in my opinion.
Holtz's tracked data was... bad, but on the bright side, if there's a player I trust shooting from everywhere, it's him. His skating and work rate is good enough where I'm not concerned about his ability to get himself into scoring position either, but I'm not sure he's a player you build a team around. Excellent scorer, unbelievable shot, dangerous from anywhere.
I like Rodion Amirov more and more the more I see him. Just such a rock solid hockey player with the skill and agility to be an aggressive scorer once he gets a bit stronger and more confident. I think there's a really bright future for him, and drafting him ahead of names like Lundell and Askarov is an argument I have time for in this tier.

Tier 2 - Top End Pieces

Yep, Marco Rossi's still #3. He's been given a bit of a run by Raymond recently, but I'm holding fast on this one. I have tons of hope for Rossi to be a remarkable NHL centre that overcomes the criticisms leveled his direction.
Lucas Raymond is a very good hockey player, and he always was. If he's available outside the Top 5, you pick him. Arguably the smartest two-way mind in the draft, arguably the most explosive first couple steps on top of that, and drove remarkable defense-first results in the SHL in limited usage. I'm a huge, huge fan.
Tim Stutzle has the potential to score plenty of points, that much is clear. I still don't understand the idea that he's the 2nd best prospect available, and I don't understand the idea of him being a centre one day. He overcommits with and without the puck often, he doesn't adapt to pressure with intelligence, rather trying to force his way through with whatever seems to come to mind. He can get boxed out a bit easily, and I just see a bit more in Rossi and Raymond that I like.
These guys could be ordered any way and I'd understand the rationale, but I look for full, 200 foot overall impact on the flow of play, and I see a bit more in the guys at 3 and 4 than I do at 5, but 5 could certainly score lots and lots, which is what many people are looking for.

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...
This has been talked to death, but it's never changed to me. These two are the best two options available. Lafreniere is the better player today, but Byfield shows unbelievable potential to be a premier franchise centre with a skillset everyone wishes they had more of.
Both of these will be as good as their minds want to take them. Putting in a full 200 foot effort every possible shift on the ice could make these two players special, and I think they both have it in them.

Overall Thoughts

I'm just excited and anxious about all of it being over at this point. I'm not really sure what else to say. I hope you have fun, I hope your team gets all the players you want them to get, try to be kind to each other and these kids, and it's time to raise some money!

1 Comment

Scouching's Kinda-Early 2020 Final-ish Ranking Maybe?

4/20/2020

1 Comment

Well it's that time again. With all the uncertainty in the world, we're kinda getting an NHL playoff I suppose, and the draft has been pushed back. In a weird stroke of luck, the extra preparation time has been a huge opportunity to keep refining data and getting a wider and better sample of this draft class. This is the first installment of a full list of 111 players I usually rank, plus a 25 player Watchlist full of guys that check some boxes either analytically and/or with the old-fashioned e y e t e s t. Why 111, you ask? Because it's 1 three times and I make the rules. Thing do get significantly more blenderized in my head beyond 93, but nitpick if you dare.

In my rankings things have changed significantly since November. The gap between the 11-20 range has widened to really encompass my 11-30 range, and you could seriously make an argument to me to take any of those players. I obviously have my preferences and they're ordered as such, but it's a very interesting year to have many picks in the top three rounds. It's a fascinating group of players, and when considering all available factors, it's really hard to nail down specific order of player's I'd select, and frankly I think that's okay. How teams develop and form them into the future role they can fit into is what will separate this class, but there's tons to play around with.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including is partially derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Without him, my work would be far less complete and valuable, so give him a follow. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
ESGF/60 - Estimated even strength goals scored while on the ice per 60 minutes.
ESGA/60 - Estimated even strength goals against while on the ice per 60 minutes.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for rate at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against rate at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

Without further ado, behold an early-final rankings for the 2020 NHL Draft, along with explanations of some the decisions made. As always, thank you all for your support, I hope you and yours are safe and well and remain so.

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

This one isn't complicated and shouldn't surprise you. People who are down on Byfield all of a sudden are either overvaluing the World Juniors, overvaluing his shortcomings, which do exist, and are also wrong.
Byfield is a player that is nearly a full year younger, and while he can't match Lafrenière's team shot attempt rates while on the ice at either end, he's showing much more of a playmaker tendency with 15.7 dangerous pass attempts/60 to Lafrenière's 9.4, and outpaces Lafrenière's offensive threat metric by a hair (22.2 vs. 21.4).
Last season, Lafrenière was in the exact same boat as Byfield at the World Juniors. A year later, he's the MVP. Does Byfield have holes in his game? Sure, but a 6'4" 17 year old who skates like Byfield does, shoots like he does, makes plays like he does and shows skill like he does don't grow on trees. He may need time, but there's absolutely a solid probability that Byfield turns into a more valuable player across the full rink.
...But Alexis Lafrenière is still extremely good, and he should be NHL good immediately. He's skilled, he plays hard, he can shoot, he can make plays, he's basically a player I think Hockey Canada goes to bed at night dreaming about. He can be a frustrating player to me with his body language, his tendency to park himself high at defensive bluelines or the neutral zone, and getting too aggressive from time to time (he was thrown out of one of the games I tracked for elbowing a defender in the face), but he has all the potential to be a premiere offensive winger with a bit of a swagger to him at both ends.

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Gunler and Holloway have dropped out and Amirov has popped in since November, but this is a very, very close group that will largely come down to fit down the road.
I still might be the biggest Marco Rossi fan out there. I love nearly everything this guy does on the ice, and I think there's tremendous potential if you give him time to build strength and experience.
That being said, at 3-5, you could convince me to swing on any of the three I have ranked. I think Raymond will be a tremendous two-way winger, Stützle will at least be an electrifying offensive winger, and Rossi could be a top level quarterback with a huge toolbox to play with.
From Perfetti onwards, it's really about what style of player you're looking for.
Perfetti has skating concerns, but I believe there's more than enough skill, edgework, and creativity to make it work.
Jamie Drysdale may not be a top pair in your face and in the highlight reel type of defenseman, but he should be able to eat minutes in a variety of situations without much issue, especially in transition.
Holtz is a player with many data-focused issues in my work, but he feels like a player that will go against what the data indicates. His shot is electrifying, and his skating ability is more than enough to chip in away from the puck. Like I said many times in the report, if there's anyone I want shooting from non-dangerous areas, it's Holtz, but shot selection improvements might make him one of the more lethal goal scorers in this generation of talent.
Lundell is a rock solid NZ play facilitator. Extremely refined and responsible in his own end, underrated offensively, and great at applying pressure away from the puck. There's are reasons he was among the leaders in Liiga shot attempt differentials. While Lundell might not be a player I saddle with expectations of a decade as my #1 centre, a highly responsible middle six centre who could reasonably play any minutes imaginable and drive good results is fine by me.
I'm a goalie skeptic, especially in the 1st round, but I will refuse to undervalue a potential #1 goaltender. They make your coaches, players, and general managers look like geniuses year after year. Askarov is playing at a level no other goalie has before at his age, for a team that has every reason to play him on one of their two junior level teams, he's stopped pucks at the men's league level, and has been excellent at every international tournament except the World Juniors. I'll forgive that one tournament and look at the plethora of evidence that if you're going to bet on a goalie, he's as good a bet as you'll find.

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

There he is. M A R A T. I constantly look for players that I'd rather have ahead of him, and the list keeps getting shorter and shorter. Khusnutdinov is a late July baby who worked his way from bottom six minutes with SKA's top MHL team to being a first line centre with some of the best 5v5 metrics of any draft eligible out of the MHL. He drives tremendous amounts of controlled offensive transitions, makes an astounding number of passes for a centre, and is a premier offensive conduit for his team. He caught my eye at the U18s last year, and I'm pretty sure his 2020 U18 would've made him a more common 1st round ranked player. He plays the way I want my centres to play. Speedy, engaged, aggressive, and some brilliant skill at times. I think he's a player you bet on. A player you let develop and get stronger over time. He's got the skating, the skill, the smarts, and the motor to put together an excellent NHL career at both ends of the ice.
I've seen more and more of the light on Jake Sanderson, but he's only ranked here because I do think it's rare to find defenders as well refined in defensive transitions as Sanderson. At time of writing, he breaks up defensive transitions 74% of the time when he gets involved. That is simply outstanding. The next highest metric in a decent sample is Emil Andrae's 70%, but it's a very small list after that. I still question how valuable that skill will be over time as the game speeds up, but Sanderson's offensive game is noteworthy as well, with a higher share of shot attempts coming from dangerous areas than Alexander Holtz, and more dangerous pass attempts per 60 5v5 minutes than Dylan Holloway. The question will be "what am I passing on if he's my guy?" The answer could be wildly different if you're looking at him 15th overall, or 5th.
Seth Jarvis in my data is a no-nonsense offensive dynamo. Shot attempts, dangerous passing, everything. He's out there focused on doing things that lead to offense. I'm not sure he's got enough defensively to be reliable, and I don't buy that he's as good as he was down the stretch, but a really intelligent offensive winger is never a bad swing to take.
This range has a lot of guys who show huge talent in flashes to my eye, almost from top to bottom. I still believe that there's a chance William Wallinder is the most electrifying defender to come out of this draft at the end of the day. He has major issues, but his pros of age, size, skating and skill are just such a great package to build on over time.
The guys I have ranked highest relative to average rankings seem to be somewhat undersized scoring wingers, who are often the guys who slip too far in the draft. It seems like I'm the biggest Daniil Gushchin, Alexander Pashin, Ozzy Wiesblatt, and Lukas Reichel fan out there.
I love Gushchin's all around offensive game when he's really going. He needs to get stronger on his feet, but his skill can humiliate opponents, and he drives dangerous shooting and passing better than almost everyone I've tracked thus far.
Pashin is a player that I fully admit is a risk. I just think he's a perfect example of an undersized player that overcomes their lack of size. He's fast, extremely skilled, moves pucks up the ice with control, and when things go wrong, I can't help but think more training and reps on the ice will help him over time. Bobbling pucks and being too patient are things you can coach and train him through. I'm willing to bet on his feet, hands and brain to turn him into an effective scoring winger at some point.
Wiesblatt is someone I went into tracking expecting to dislike, but I've only liked him more and more. At time of writing, he's controlled over 60% of the dangerous shot attempts on the ice, and every single shot attempt he has taken has been dangerous. 2/3 of them are taken from the slot area. In fact, he's had 9.3 high danger attempts per 60 minutes in my work. Lukas Reichel is the only other player over 8 in my tracking.
Speaking of Lukas Reichel, if he's a guy you can land in the 2nd, he could be an excellent complimentary scorer down the road. He's very smart away from the puck finding open space offensively and getting in position to register dangerous attempts. He isn't a particularly complex player, but he puts himself in a position to land points very well. I think there are flashes of a good transition player, and he kept up with Tim Stützle in a number of metrics, but when push comes to shove, he's doing a lot of very notable things against men.
Jean-Luc Foudy is in here at 31. He does so much on paper so well. In terms of controlling pucks up the ice with his own stick, I don't believe there's a better player available. Cole Perfetti generated about the same controlled offensive transitions per 60 minutes at 5v5, but Foudy generated many through his feet, while Perfetti used teammates very effectively and passed the puck far more often. Foudy is a risk, mostly due to his tendency to hang onto pucks forever, and his defensive play isn't great, but the guy was borderline untouchable at times in the offensive zone, and sent passes to dangerous areas over 19% more than any other CHL player I've tracked. If he can hold onto the puck to the point of frustration, but also sends a pass to the slot every three minutes of 5v5 ice time, completes passes over 75% of the time, and moves pucks as efficiently as anyone in the draft, then who's at fault for his lack of production? His profile is one I'd bet on after two years in the CHL with plenty of chances to get more experience.

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

This is where the real blenderization begins. I think this range of the draft is unbearably even. Names like Sam Colangelo, Braden Schneider, and Anton Johannesson could very easily be argued as the first names off the board on Day 2, or names that see themselves drop to round 3 in my view.
The more I see of Jérémie Poirier, the less I like. I feel as though his game took a step back over the season. He skates himself into trouble, his skating up the ice can be clunky, and his defensive game can be downright abysmal, but there's plenty of skill and mobility to bet on. He doesn't have the data that indicates he's extremely undervalued or likely to regress positively in my work, but what he does very well is very apparent. I just get the feeling he's going to be a tough, tough defenseman to develop into what he could be.
I'm a huge, huge fan of Joni Jurmo. He caught my attention early for his fast, skilled and aggressive offensive style, and while he has downsides to his game, he's a player that I would absolutely love to have as a power play quarterback with great 5v5 instincts with the puck. He might be one of the best pure skaters among all defensemen this year, but he has work to do, especially in his own end. I'm excited to see him with JYP next season, and you should be too. He's another player I'm pretty sure would've made a name for himself at the U18s.
Brett Berard might be one of the most quietly effective players in the draft. He's very close to being the "Mr. Scouch-a-lytics" for 2020. He controls 70% of the high danger chances on the ice. He moves pucks up the ice with control 80% of the time. He has 44 controlled offensive defensive blueline transitions/60 at 5v5. That beats everyone so far by 31%. He isn't a fast player, but he plays smart, plays hard, and pushes play positively.
Samuel Knazko is a guy I've been a fan of all year. He's a very modern brand of defender. Highly active along offensive bluelines but has great mobility to cover his tracks. He's one of three players over 100 pass attempts/60 minutes at 5v5, and shuts down defensive transitions at around the 70% rate. He's another case of players who might have a certain narrative regarding aggression and risk, but in reality, is not much riskier than defensemen ranked much higher. He's a creative passer that absolutely needs work in his own end, but he is a defender who will defend by preventing the opponent from getting to the DZ in the first place.
Speaking of players who might not line up with a narrative, I wasn't a huge Braden Schneider fan in viewings, and the data isn't a whole lot better. He faces the 4th most shot attempts of any player I've tracked thus far, but thankfully the majority are low danger attempts. His high danger shot rate against is very low, but moving pucks up the ice with control is a difficulty relative to this cohort at 53%. Sanderson, Drysdale, Jurmo, Knazko, and Johannesson are all defenders ranked to this point that are over 66.7. He's just a guy that I think will get picked well before I'm prepared to do so.
It's impossible to talk about Braden Schneider without looking at Kaiden Guhle. I've warmed up to him in a sense, at least moreso than Schneider, but his rate of controlled offensive transitions is under 50% at present time, which is far from ideal, but his skating and defensive game feel more likely to translate without issue.
Anton Johannesson will be a fascinating player to keep an eye on going into and coming out of the draft. He's fought injuries over the last two seasons, but I'm of the belief that if he were healthy all season, and just a bit taller, we'd be looking at him in the early 2nd, and potentially the 1st round. He's small, but shifty and mobile. He isn't the fastest defender you'll see, but he's one of the most effective puck movers I've tracked. He completes more passes per 60 minutes than anyone else attempts. He has more dangerous pass attempts per 60 minutes than Marco Rossi, Alexis Lafrenière, and Kasper Simontaival. No other defenseman is even close.
Brandon Coe played on an awful team, but I saw him show exceptional skill for a big winger with solid skating on his edges. He's on my list to track, but I've really liked what I've seen.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov is in here, and I still believe people aren't seeing the forest through the trees. He started as a bottom six forward with Sibir after turning 17 in July, and had one of the best draft eligible years in the MHL. He only got better and better as the year went on, and his skating, shot selection, and creativity lead me to believe that patience will be rewarded if he's your guy. A real long term project that I'm sticking my neck out for, but I really love the potential he brings.

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

This was a tough tier. A lot of these guys I see flashes of, and many are players whose data I've gathered and tracked haven't met expectations.
Everyone loves Antonio Stranges skill, and granted, the data I've tracked is very good, but I'm really unsure that there's going to be a great professional player here. His skating can be questionable, he isn't extremely active away from the puck, and I just get the feeling that his junior career could be excellent, but projecting his game is difficult.
Martin Chromiak is a guy I was excited to track when seeing how his data translated to Kingston, but I really question where his game will go over time. He's a solid option to flow pucks through in offensive transitions, and he can be a dangerous player in the offensive zone, but his skating isn't great, he misses a ton of his passes, and creates far too many uncontrolled offensive transitions for my liking. I think he'll get picked before I'm ready, but in this range he could potentially be a good role player as a catch and pass player who trails an offensive rush looking to make a play at the last second.
Daniel Torgersson is very much in the same boat. Decent skill for a big winger, but again, another role player at the end of the day. If it's me, I get Torgersson to the net away from the puck, keep finding open space, create screens, and use his skill in tight to either slap rebounds in the net or get pucks to open ice in the dangerous areas.
Eamon Powell and Brock Faber are lower ceiling players to me, but with Powell's intelligence and skill, and Faber's skating and reach, both could be interesting long term bets.
Benjamin Baumgartner is legit, I think. He took massive steps this year since I peeked at him with Austria's U20 team. He plays ~10 5v5 minutes a game, on par with other tracked players in men's leagues, but was 6th in forward scoring, and my tracked data indicates a rock solid two-way centre, and at time of writing, he leads men's league players I've tracked in offensive threat, driven mostly by an outstanding 15 dangerous pass attempts/60.
I just really like Zayde Wisdom. He exudes work ethic with good skill. I found him to be a major, major reason Martin Chromiak looked so good paired with Shane Wright. That unit really looked like they clicked right away, and Wisdom was a huge part in that.
Guys like Cardwell, Svejkovsky, Francis, and Mäenpää are big, big swings on skill. Mäenpää is small, and looks/plays like it. It's an issue for sure, but he's extremely quick, extremely agile, and somehow still manages to get 43% of his shot attempts from high danger areas. Only Benjamin Baumgartner and Ozzy Wiesblatt surpass those metrics with 44% and 66.7%(!) respectively.
I really like Marko Stacha. Not sure exactly why, and I need to track some data, but I liked him at the World Juniors, and I've really liked him playing against men in Slovakia. He's a good skater with a solid defensive brain and offensive flashes of skill.
Dylan Peterson is a tremendous player to watch, but he's almost all tools right now. I find it hard to nail down exactly what kind of player he's going to be. His skill and skating for such a big forward is really desirable, but he had trouble in his own end this year, and I found many plays to die on his stick in the offensive zone with a lack of awareness, adaptability, and dynamic ability to his game.

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

Pavel Tyutnev barely plays, but his results when he plays can be excellent. He's resilient with the puck, creative offensively, completes over 80% of his passes, and takes 40% of his shot attempts from high danger. If he's available at pick 217, you could do much worse.
Trineyev and Zlodeyev are guys I've only recently begun to dig into, but with Trineyev's combination of skating and size, and Zlodeyev's creativity and quarterback potential, I've been a fan.
Wyatt Kaiser can skate. If you want to bet on skating, he's a great option. Same goes for Ronan Seeley.
Alexander Nikishin had decent flashes, but I really do not know why he played so much in the KHL this year. He seemed overwhelmed with the pace of play, but his hands and physical ability was fun, I guess.
Everyone has been asking me if Cale Makar 2.0 is Michael Benning. I'm about 99.9% sure he is not. I haven't enjoyed the AJHL as a whole, and Sherwood Park seemed like a team that egged the opponent into 4 on 4 situations through penalty shenanigans, where Benning would send stretch passes to Carter Savoie at the offensive blueline, and would score one of their 6 goals of the night. Of course I'm oversimplifying, but this has happened in many of the games I've tracked and watched, and I'm really not sure about either one of those players, doubly so after the World Junior A Challenge.
Victor Mancini is a kid I want to meet and get to know. The decision to skip on the USHL and live in Gothenburg to play with Frölunda as a 17 year old is a very mature decision to me. I've read that he's only looking for the best possible path for him, and he picked a good one. It's unconventional, but I believe it's a good thing. He shuts down 70% of transitions coming his way, maintains control in 70% of offensive transitions, and while he has some mobility concerns defensively, he's a guy I think you could buy low on and let play in college with a modern program like Omaha's.

The Watchlist

These are just fun players I've caught over the year that might be fun shots in the dark down the road.
NOTE: I've edited this list on June 19th to remove Matvei Bannikov and Aleksei Sinkkonen. I really like the potential of both players, but I realized they may be more "probably undrafted but they're on the list to keep an eye on next year", rather than "late round actual potential swings". They've been replaced with Karri Aho and Albert Lyckåsen.
I'm a believer in Brady Burns and especially Josh Lawrence. If Lawrence's hands can catch up to his feet, he could be quite a player. He's quick, works hard, and is aggressive away from the puck. Similar to Tyutnev, you could do worse at pick 217. Same goes for Alex Gaffney, while we're at it.
I don't know why Landon Slaggert isn't scoring more, but he's a guy I constantly notice on the NTDP when my tracked player is off the ice. There's skill there, he's a June baby, and he plays big. I usually let the data do the talking, but he's a guy I've liked this year.
Mitchell Smith you say? Well... He's one of the most aggressive offensive defensemen I've ever seen play the game. He has the most individual high/medium danger shot attempts per 60 of any defenseman I've tracked with 5.17, beating Ryan O'Rourke's 4.99. His skating is fine, and while his aggression can lead to odd man rushes against, he has faced the third least shot attempts against of the defenders I've tracked this year. He may be Justin Bergeron 2.0, but he's most definitely fun to watch and has decent results to go with it.
Vladimir Mashkov is the king of "doing nothing but creating chances". 18.1 dangerous pass attempts/60 is second only to Jean-Luc Foudy's 21.2, and he does it while playing highly limited minutes on a good Omsk roster. Outside of that, I like his edges and mobility, but he's as much of a project as you'll find.
Yes, Shakir is in here. He's almost a meme at this point, but I see him show nice tools with his feet and hands, but that's about it. His decisionmaking and defensive awareness is simply not good enough, and at the moment, it completely outweighs whatever tools he displays. If an NHL team wants to swing on him in the 1st round, so be it, but he relinquishes zone transitions extremely poorly, and hands possession over with ease. These are things I do not want my defensemen to be doing, regardless of how good their feet and hands are.
Carter Savoie is only on here because of what happens when he gets his head in the game. I've rarely caught him backchecking, let alone entering the defensive zone, and while his shot and skill is a ton of fun at it's best, I just don't think this is a player I'm jumping at the chance to add to my pipeline. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not the only one.
Maxim Musorov continues to fly under the radar due to him playing in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, but I've really liked his game. He's slippery, quick, and I thought he looked really good leading Kazakhstan's world junior team.
Yegor Suchkov is one of the younger re-entries out there, but I love how much fun he is to watch. He's small, but skilled and agile, and managed to show well at the VHL level.
Everyone loves Dmitri Sheshin, and while I'm still skeptical of his pro upside, he should probably have been drafted last year, and his skill is undeniable.
I'm just really liked watching Mateusz Szurowski, and Ivan Zivlak. They're interesting long term projects with measured success in various levels. Albert Lyckåsen is an aggressive offensive defender I've loved for his attacking mentality and how exciting his skating can be, especially in the offensive zone.

Final Notes

That's it. That's the list. I want to note that there's been some discussion recently surrounding length of lists and their usefulness. I've been told that many scouts and teams have lists as small as half the length as mine. I'm still confident in the overall list of players I have ranked, but I completely understand the point of view. My rankings are split into tiers to group players together based on a general feel for talent, and I fully admit that past a certain point, you have to shrug and take your best swing. It's pretty apparent that I value pure, raw talent, regardless of risk. Every pick carries risk, but believing in every player you pick, properly identifying their strengths and weaknesses, and putting them on an achievable trajectory to NHL success is the part that can separate a steal from just another 5th round pick. Give me four lines that can go out, generate offense, suppress defense, and score goals. I don't care as much about how the results are generated, but I do care that the players can do all of those things, especially at 5v5. Even if they have that profile at a lower level, isolating how they're generating those results, and trying to project them is vital to how I value a player. Players have some leeway in this area, but this is the whole reason I evaluate the way that I do. Results based data leads to interesting case studies, data tracking isolates what is happening when the player is playing, and video indicates what might or might not be projectable or going right or wrong.

All this being said, if you have any questions about anything, please don't hesitate to reach out on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube or email. There is a piece coming somewhat soon exploring my general philosophy, so stay tuned for that! More Scouching Reports are on the way as well.

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Be well and stay safe.
- Will

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1 Comment

The NHL CSS List is Out. Here are my Thoughts.

1/13/2020

1 Comment

The NHL Central Scouting Midterm list is now online and viewable, so if you haven't checked it out yet, definitely do so here before reading further. You don't have to, it just might be good to familiarize yourself, but I'm not the police, so I won't come after you.

Understanding NHL Central Scouting's philosophy is an... interesting exercise. There's a clear preference towards size, a bit of a tendency to value older players, and splitting the players into North American and European skaters goaltenders makes it difficult to understand the landscape as a whole. That doesn't mean we can't explore some cases that are, in my humble opinion, either overvalued, or in many cases undervalued. So behold, three players I'm currently highest and lowest on relative to the NHL Central Scouting List, as well as some honourable mentions.

Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Metric	Value
NHLeS	17.80
INV%	17.45%
ES P1/60	0.51
ESGF/60	2.33
ESGA/60	1.70
OffCat%	6.35%
DefCat%	5.11%

This one is a bit of a given, based on the analytical work I do, but I have a hard time agreeing with Guhle being a legitimate top talent coming out of this draft. It can certainly be seen that considering Guhle's size and playing style, he isn't the prototypical 6'6" bus on skates that a team hopes turns into Zdeno Chara. Guhle is a surprisingly mobile player who can certainly hold his own in all three zones. It's just a question of upside to me. My viewings of Guhle indicate a player focused more on chasing hits near the blueline in lieu of making a simpler play that maintains position between himself and the middle of the ice. His play with the puck is often somewhat uninspiring and can lead to failures exiting the defensive end.

It isn't that I don't like Kaiden Guhle or his style, though. It's just that I feel that he'll get picked well before I'm ready to pick him. My attitude through the draft is to draft the best players you can, especially in skills that are hard to find in the NHL. Big, rangy physical defenders are often available in the summer, and if they aren't, drafting high ceiling prospects makes the trade market more accessible. If I'm in the 2nd round, even the early part of it, I certainly am open to the idea, but having him slip that far seems unlikely at best judging by public perception.

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Metric	Value
NHLeS	23.91
INV%	17.45%
ES P1/60	2.04
ESGF/60	3.86
ESGA/60	1.47
OffCat%	3.76%
DefCat%	42.70%

Let me get this out of the way: I really enjoy watching Jack Quinn play hockey. Beyond that, his September 2001 birthday coupled with a much higher focus on goal scoring on a remarkably talented OHL team bring some questions to the table. He's very skilled and has good two-way metrics, but I'm skeptical of his long term outlook considering how impressive some players nearly a year younger (Brett Berard, Martin Chromiak, and Dmitri Ovchinnikov come to mind) have been. I'm always skeptical of players who don't generate assists as it implies that utilizing teammates in a system might not be a strong trait and that a sense of "dynamism" might be lacking.

Similar to Guhle, if Quinn is available in the 2nd round after some younger players with better production have been drafted, I can certainly have the discussion of picking him, but as a first round pick in a draft as strong as this one, I can't help but be skeptical of that kind of a swing.

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Metric	Value
NHLeS	14.45
INV%	16.57%
ES P1/60	1.77
ESGF/60	3.07
ESGA/60	2.61
OffCat%	-23.84%
DefCat%	9.71%

I see the appeal of Will Cuylle. I really do. Good straight line speed, constantly applying pressure on teammates, loves the physical side of the game, he's a brand of player that I know teams still value highly. I just do not see his value being worth what a team might be willing to pay for. He's steadily improved this year after a bit of a slow start, but I don't see Cuylle being much more than an F3 who creates space for linemates through his physical play, and I'm not sure that's worth a 1st, 2nd, or depending on who's available, a 3rd round pick in this year's draft. If he continues to improve, he could come off this list, but I've also come away far more impressed with Jean-Luc Foudy in the times I've viewed the Spitfires, and Foudy is ranked just one spot ahead of Cuylle on the NHL's list.

Undervalued

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Metric	Value
NHLeS	8.48
INV%	12.24%
ES P1/60	1.05
ESGF/60	2.74
ESGA/60	2.53
OffCat%	11.39%
DefCat%	21.37%

Holloway's remarkable AJHL production hasn't followed him to a stacked Wisconsin offense, but I'm honestly not concerned. In my viewings, his power play time is restricted, he's playing down the linup a bit, and it feels as though the increased pace of play to the NCAA can be a bit much for the former AJHLer. His talent is undeniable though, and I've seen him take over shifts on his own more often than I've seen him disappear. He brings a great motor with a rangy two-way game with slick offensive tools. He's a player I'd certainly take my time with before taking him to the NHL, but I really do believe if the NHL believes he's the 10th best available North American, he could turn out to be a major steal of the draft if available in the late teens or early 20s.

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Metric	Value
NHLeS	18.67
INV%	31.45%
ES P1/60	1.59
ESGF/60	2.54
ESGA/60	1.69
OffCat%	-28.17%
DefCat%	38.15%

I personally find Simontaival a major boom or bust player. He's done very well on an extremely talented Tappara junior team with a proven track record against men from 2018-19's Mestis season. That being said, his talent level indicates that he should be clapping the Finnish junior leagues to pieces, but he's been inconsistent. Simontaival is an electrifying skater with wonderful skill and a great ability to get chances from high and medium danger areas. At the same time, he can be careless with the puck and can try to do a bit too much. Whether he stays with Tappara, or comes to North America, he has a whack of potential. A loan to KOOVEE of the Mestis has been promising for him with four points in six games, but as much raw skill and speed that Simontaival has, there's a possibility he's a very talented kid who just can't get over that final "hump" we see with so many skilled players as they develop into NHLers.

Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Metric	Value
NHLeS	15.89
INV%	16.02%
ES P1/60	1.62
ESGF/60	3.50
ESGA/60	1.62
OffCat%	-14.79%
DefCat%	26.11%

Joni Jurmo caught my eye very early in the year watching Jokerit's talented junior team. He's a big defenseman with remarkable mobility and great primary point production at even strength. His hands and ability to move puck into and through the neutral zone is excellent, which is exactly what I believe you need out of a modern defender. He cuts off zone transitions extremely well and chokes out breakouts while staying in position. Passing and carrying decisions are good, but he isn't the crispiest passing defensemen out there and can miss his target a bit more than I'd like. I could easily see a good minutes-eating defender down the line, especially if he slips into the middle rounds of the draft and you're willing to be patient and develop the profile he's exhibited so far.

Closing Thoughts

Trust me, there are many more. The NHL CSS rankings get a little bit hairy regarding players that are tough to view, in limited roles on their teams, or perform well in more subtle analytical data rather than raw point production. While that certainly doesn't render the CSS rankings moot, it is a reminder that it is important to use data and video work to supplement live viewings as much as possible to get a firm view on the players available in the draft.

If you want some honourable mentions, I'd highly recommend names like Marat Khusnutdinov, Alex Pashin, Marko Stacha and Veeti Miettinen on the positive end. Stacha is a highly underrated modern defensive defender who showed quite well at times at the World Juniors. Marat Khusnutdinov may be the most underrated pure centre in the whole draft. Pashin and Miettinen are honestly just plain fun to watch and I hope that they work their way into the NHL. Eemil Viro, Daemon Hunt, and Hendrix Lapierre all strike me as players ranked a bit too high for my liking. Viro is a solid mobile defender, but his puck play and even strength offense fall well short of what I would expect. Hunt had a great D-1 year with Moose Jaw last year, but he's regressed significantly and is a net negative in many metrics, even relative to the declining quality of the Warriors. Lapierre is a case of a player I want to see succeed, but I just can't bring myself to have him ranked as high as the CSS does at 13th in North America. Three concussions in under a calendar year for a young athlete is an extremely troublesome series of injuries and without multiple medical examinations, extensive physical testing and mental testing, I would have a hard time making a push to take the risk until the latest picks of the first round at the very earliest.

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Scouching's 2020 World Junior Championship Preview

12/21/2019

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Just want the data? Fine. Click here. Or scroll down once the tournament begins and rosters are finalized.

It's the most wonderful time of the year once again as the IIHF World Junior Championships approach. Hosted in Ostrava, Czechia, the 2020 installation looks to be one of the more exciting tournaments I can remember in the last few iterations. The otherworldly 2019 USA National Program is ready to be unleashed on the planet, a historic 2020 crop from Canada is ready to hit the big time, the Swedish defense looks like the deepest of any team in years, and both Finland, Czechia and even Germany are bringing their fair share of 2020 eligible players that will be worth the watch. Names like Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell and Tim Stützle headline a long list of undrafted players who could be huge players in this tournament, let alone the countless drafted and unmentioned 2020 eligibles that could be household names after this tournament.

It's honestly very hard for me to cut through the data to properly assess how these teams sit. A lot will come down to goaltending for many teams as it does many years, but questions as simple as "how far will the German top unit take them" are perfectly legitimate with many possible answers. It's a tremendously exciting year for many reasons and I hope that the on-ice product surpasses what's expected.

I also would like to note that rosters are still not finalized at time of publication for Patrons (December 24th). Once they're finalized, NHLeS and roster images with data will be added below.

Before we get into the analysis, I'd just like to mention that this is a tournament with the best junior talent each country thinks they have to offer. Not every player from Canada to Kazakhstan will touch NHL ice, drafted or undrafted, and that's okay. Fans are looking to watch their team's prospects, and the hype that comes from it can be near suffocating, and I feel that the idea of players not living up to the hype from this tournament been slightly devaluing it with regard to the interest hockey fans have. This tournament is about teenagers representing their country for what could very well be the last time on a major stage as best they can. The pressure on teams can be overwhelming, and fans can sometimes lose sight of what this tournament is all about (myself included frankly). I know that I'm going to be making a conscious effort to appreciate the tournament for the drama and the quality of these young players isolating players for whatever performances they may have for whatever decisions they may make. Putting Max Comtois on the ice for an OT penalty shot to get to the semifinal with an injured shoulder may be a decision that harmed Canada's chance at the tournament, but it doesn't change the fact that that quarterfinal game against Finland was a remarkable hockey game. We in the prospect world (again, myself included) should remember just how incredible the hockey can be a little more and appreciate the national pride that stems from this tournament.

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

I know I just mentioned that this year's tournament is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm relatively confident the Kazakhs are destined for relegation. Names like Artur Gatiyatov, Demid Yeremyev and Samat/Sayan Daniyar are gone, with names like Maxim Musorov, and Vladislav Nurek to replace them. I've seen Musorov and Guseinov play, and while they're good talents at the MHL level, most of these players hail from an MHL team that has won 9 of 42 games this year. Trouble is, they also cut Guseinov, a 45%INV player on that team that makes up a large portion of this one. I would be absolutely shocked if this team manages to save themselves in relegation against their likely German opponents.

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

A team that likely had the talent to be in this tournament last year, the Germans are a team I feel will likely be in the relegation group with Kazakhstan; not due to talent, but due to the logistics of the tournament. Of Canada, Russia, Czechia, and the USA, I have a hard time seeing them getting anywhere above last place in their group. It's possible that a top tier group of Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel, John-Jason Peterka, and Moritz Seider could upset a team or two if Hendrik Hane absolutely shuts the door, which I personally would greatly enjoy, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is a historic group of German hockey players and a sign of increasing interest and funding in the nation recently. I'm personally looking forward to the potential coming out party of Lukas Reichel (a firm 1st round pick in my preliminary rankings) and getting a better look at how Moritz Seider has evolved. It looks like a strong team that should be proud of what they've accomplished regardless of the outcome.

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

The greatest coach in hockey has found new work with HC Davos, but last year's Cinderella story is back with another group that may not be able to recapture the magic from last year. Philipp Kurashev, a star in the 2019 tournament is now ineligible and off to a solid North American pro career with the AHL's Rockford Ice Hogs. There aren't a ton of names that could shock opponents as Switzerland has fallen off a little in recent years with regards to NHL draft output, but Tim Berni, Nico Gross, Valentin Nussbaumer, and undrafted not-goalie David Aebischer could all be contributors. Goaltender Luca Hollenstein has been a solid goaltender for Swiss junior teams, and if he can steal a game here or there again, anything is possible, even if he's 5'10".

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

The perennial quarterfinalists are back with another team with flashes of talent, but not a whole lot of real depth. I will say that I think this is a stronger team than usual. I'm extremely excited to see 2020 eligibles Samuel Knazko and a major sleeper for me in Marko Stacha hopefully play major roles. Maxim Cajkovic should be the top player on this team though. He's a true sniper with great skill, but his defensive shortcomings may be a bit exposed with a shallow defense and centre group. The thought of cutting Martin Chromiak is a perplexing one, but this should be a curious team for the Slovakians.

Their goaltending could be a bit of a bright spot, as Samuel Hlavaj has backed the Sherbrooke Phoenix to being one of the best CHL teams in Canada and could be an overage target in 2020 if he Benjamin Conz's this tournament. In any case, there are curious potential mid-round picks that I'll certainly look for, but the overall outlook on this team may be more of the same.

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

The strength of the Finns this year will come from their depth. Justus Annunen has been great in the Liiga this year, and this tournament will be a major test of that success. The team on paper is headlined by Coyotes draft pick Matias Maccelli who has absolutely erupted for Ilves Tampere in the Liiga. His teammate Lassi Thomson will headline the defense with a rejuvenated Anttoni Honka, and notable Winnipeg Jet Ville Heinola. With Rasmus Kupari, the Räty brothers, the forward group should be solid as well, but I'm a bit hesitant to see if they repeat last year's success. It may come down to how Annunen plays, but you also can't ever count out the Finns and how they play the game. They're fast, they work as a unit, they play hard, can wear opponents down and can capitalize on your mistakes.

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

Here's where we start to get into the weeds a bit. With the way Russian teams "develop" their youth, NHLeS metrics can be artifically low for many Russian players, especially the youngest of the bunch. This year the Russian team is the oldest in the tournament by a third of a year, but there is plenty of talent all over this lineup that I think could easily threaten the best teams out there. If Yaroslav Askarov is the guy in net, he could be the star of the show. I usually don't touch goaltending much in my work, but Askarov is the only VHL goaltender under 18 years of age to play major minutes in recent memory and he's touched KHL ice with SKA St. Petersburg and did not look out of place. He's legit, and as good a bet at a #1 goaltender as you're going to get since Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's unbelievably athletic and technical, making the game look easy and being mature well beyond his years.

Historically, the Russians are a weak defensive team, but names like Alexander Romanov, Daniil Misyul, Daniil Zhuravyalov and Danila Galenyuk could stymie anyone. Up front, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin, Yegor Sokolov, Kirill Marchenko, and of course Grigori Denisenko can be lethal talents in a variety of ways. The only name I wish had made this team would be Salavat Yulaev's Rodion Amirov, but the Russians could be a powerhouse of a team. They always come ready to play and are never out of games, especially when they could spell elimination. I'm very excited to see what these Russians can bring, and I think the only limit to what they're capable of will come from discipline and focus.

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

Since the Swedes won the gold in 2012, they never missed medal contention until they got shut out by the Swiss last year. The trouble is that they haven't won the tournament since 2012 either and lost all three bronze medal games they competed in. They've reloaded their team for 2020 with an outstanding defense crop including Victor Söderström, Nils Lundkvist, Philip Broberg, Rasmus Sandin, and Tobias Björnfot. That is a gross group of players to have moving pucks up the ice and controlling possession of the game. Any of the three goaltenders on their roster could be very solid as well.

The trouble for Sweden has recently come down to a lack of offense, but a forward core of Nils Höglander, Alexander Holtz, Jonatan Berggren, Samuel Fagemo, Lucas Raymond, Karl Henriksson brings six offensive weapons that should play a pivotal role in the success of this team. All of these players are fast and aggressive, and Holtz and Fagemo provide two goal-scoring threats that other teams will have a hard time matching. This is a team that could win the whole tournament if they work together and let their best players play. Their goaltending may not be quite up to the same level as some others, but Alnefelt, Eliasson, and Portillo are three very good options that could steal the show.

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

I'm just as surprised to see the Czechs have as high a score as they have, but with a number of good CHL players on the way, and one of the highest NHLeS' in the tournament in Jan Jeník leading the way, the Czechs could have a very impressive tournament after making it through the quarterfinals just once since 2005. Lukas Dostal was wonderful last season and should get his job back this year, but Nick Malik and Jan Bednar are two 2020 eligibles who are quite highly regarded as prospects.

Beyond Jeník, the Czechs will have plenty of depth up front with draft eligibles Jan Mysak, Jaromir Pytlik, and Adam Raska making a solid core. Jakub Lauko, Matej Pekar, Michal Teplý, and Karel Plasek are all drafted talents that should certainly help the team out as well.

The defense is a weak point with Simon Kubicek, Libor Zábranský and Hugo Has being fine talents, but this team does have the weapons and goaltending necessary to make noise. Jan Jeník is legit. Lukas Dostal could steal a game. While I'm not totally sure they have the potential to go along with the 3rd highest NHLeS in my data sheet, they certainly are bringing a team that is strong up front and in net, and sometimes that's all you need.

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

Hahahahahahaha this team is so loaded that you just have to laugh. The 2019 USA NTDP team headliners are almost all here they brought all their outsider friends too. Arthur Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, Bobby Brink, Zac Jones, Jordan Harris, etc. etc. etc. are a great group on their own, but adding Trevor Zegras, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Alex Turcotte, Beecher, and others from prior years is simply ridiculous. I know I was down on Spencer Knight last year, but this is why I'm outward about how goaltending is weird. He's been great with Boston College and internationally, so I expect nothing to change there. This is a dangerous team with at least three scary lines that could easily take this tournament, and the defense is a well rounded group of offensive talent and physical ability. Even the role players like Parker Ford, Curtis Hall and Jack Drury have been impressive players when I've seen them.

I'd be disappointed to see this team not play in the gold medal game, simply because of how remarkable it was to watch these guys play entering the 2019 NHL Draft. They're going to be fast, fun, creative and a constant threat that will be tough to beat.

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

Once again, the Canadian team is out front by quite a margin. The CHL is the best junior league program in the world, but I'm one of those people that firmly believes that European programs and players are continously catching up and underrated. That being said, Canada should still be the top team in this tournament. Their perennial weaknesses often are in net, and with their discipline on international ice. Last year's talent was somewhat light in premier offensive talent, but this year is quite the opposite. Canada's 2020 crop is outstanding and they've chosen to showcase Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Jamie Drysdale, and Dawson Mercer on this year's team. Byfield is a very large, very good skating creative offensive threat, Lafrenière is an absolute hound on the ice with remarkable skill and overall offensive ability, Drysdale is already a top two-way OHL defender, and Mercer is one of the more well-rounded finishers in the 2020 draft outside of the aforementioned Canadians.

The issue with Canada lies solely in their goaltending. I'm just not sure if it's on the same level as names like Askarov, Knight, or even Annunen and Dostal. Nicolas Daws is largely unproven on a large stage, Olivier Rodrigue is... fine, but Joel Hofer has blossomed somewhat now that he's escaped from facing 40 shots a night in Swift Current. It's a legitimate question mark, but if the team relies on their offense from both forwards and defense, they could still be major threats to win the tournament.

I could cherry pick individuals that I personally wouldn't have added to the roster, but this is a team that has more than enough talent to win for just the 3rd time since 2010. It'll come down to goaltending, discipline, and playing full 60 minute games to do it, but this is a very good looking team no matter which way you slice it.

Closing Thoughts

I really want to reiterate that this year really feels like an especially deep and talented pool of players that we'll get the privilege of watching in Czechia. There are legitimately 6 teams I could see having a good run at winning a medal, and really anything can happen at this tournament. Multiple teams have top level goaltending, multiple teams have top level offensive weapons, multiple teams are absolutely loaded on defense, and I honestly have a hard time actually being definitive about who is likely to finish where.

That being said, if I were a betting man (which I certainly am not), I would have to imagine the tournament could play out as such if I look at how the groups are likely to play out:

Relegated - Kazakhstan
Saved - Germany
QF - Slovakia, Switzerland, Finland, Czech Republic
Bronze Loss - Sweden
Bronze - USA
Silver - Canada
Gold - Russia

This tournament is full of surprises though, and these are teenagers we're working with. We were all teenagers once and things can go awry for a variety of reasons. I honestly believe a team as low down this ranking as the Czechs could pull off a medal considering their goaltending and forward depth, but I have a hard time thinking that this will come down to Canada, the USA and the Russians.

In any case, the hockey is sure to be excellent with plenty of drama to go around. I appreciate you all taking the time to read through this preview, and from me and the family, I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy sitting by the fire with family and screaming at your tv's at a bunch of teenagers playing their hearts out for you. I know I will be.

P.S. The year 2020 is fast approaching, which means Scouching Reports are on the way as February gets started. We're over 60 players tracked, and I'm expecting full length videos on many of those between February and June. If you want live access to the data I'm tracking on those players as well as other information you won't find elsewhere on 2020 draft eligibles and drafted prospects, please consider supporting the project on Patreon. Every dollar brings me closer to doing this full-time, but it is totally optional. Be ready, because 2020 is looking to be bigger and better than any preceding trip around the Sun for Scouching.

Thank you again, have a great remainder of 2019, and I hope the 2020's get off on the right foot for all of you reading this.

- Will

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Scouching's Preliminary 2020 NHL Draft Rankings

11/19/2019

2 Comments

Ah yes, it's that time again. NHL Draft Rankings... Every year, I say I dislike rankings, yet every year, here I am. This year I have said that there will be no rankings until after the World Junior Championships in January, but considering just how much data I have access to, and how many players and games I've tracked, I feel relatively comfortable publicizing my preliminary Top 5 tiers before publishing a more complete version next year. On the whole, the preseason hype of this crop seems to be a bit of a mixed bag in my opinion. A number of talents are emerging worldwide, however, and I do believe this will still be a strong group of players with solid depth in the late 1st through 3rd rounds, but from my vantage point, the talent dropoff after the first two tiers could be relatively steep when all is said and done. At the same time, the weekly 20+ NHLeS report I release on Twitter is still much longer than last year's so I may be biased against myself, which is a little unsettling.

If you're a Patron of the project, you can view my rankings as they change over the year, with the full 111 unlocked at the $25 tier along with my full data sheet of >700 skaters and goaltenders' data.

If you're new here, I generally tend to think of my rankings in "Tiers", which attempts to group players into a pool from which I feel the order could be interchangeable, with the numbers ordering the players as how I might push for them in a draft discussion. I find that it creates much more balanced and nuanced discussion, especially considering these players are so young and may have wildly different potential trajectories that may differ reasonably depending on which NHL organization picks them up.

The data I am including includes NHLeS and INV%, values as of November 24, 2019, with P1/60 and Cat% data accurate to November 19, 2019 and is derived from pick224.com, operated by the great Dave MacPherson. Give him a follow, guy could be going places. If you're unfamiliar, here is a breakdown of the metrics included:

NHLeS - Age, league and position adjusted measure of prospect value. 20+ is generally 1st round with some limitations for European men's league players.
INV% - Player involvement in team offense on average.
P1/60 - Estimated primary points per 60 minutes of ice time.
OffCat% - Percentage increase in goals for at even strength relative to their team.

DefCat% - Percentage decrease in goals against at even strength relative to their team.

TotCat% - Percentage increase in goals differential at even strength relative to their team.

"Will, please stop yammering and show me the rankings."
- All of you

Alright without further delay, here are my 5 tiers of 2020 NHL Draft prospects.

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

I've said for a while that I personally lean 60/40 in favor of Lafrenière, but it is not a difficult conversation to bet on Quinton Byfield's upside long term.
Lafrenière is a truly gifted hockey player who just seems to get it. Tremendously smart all around, great skill, great scoring instincts and pushes play at both ends extremely well. His skating is awkward, but not slow, and he can control the flow of the game at his pace. At the NHL, it remains to be seen how that translates, but his overall talent and ability to find the scoresheet is unequivocally remarkable.
On the other hand, Quinton Byfield is a player who could turn into an Evgeni Malkin-type big centre with tremendous skating ability and skill. He's a lethal scorer and a bit more of an offensively-focused game, but to me, he has tremendous upside. Considering his 11 month age advantage over Lafrenière, it is a perfectly legitimate discussion to have if you're picking 1st overall, and neither of these players should be available at 3rd overall.
I mean it. I almost pulled the "I'm going to rank both of these guys at #1 lol" trick, but I pulled myself together and went with my gut. My gut is weak, but my gut was final. I take Lafrenière and his wonderful overall no-BS approach to the game, but a potentially not-fun centre that could QB a line for a decade or more is pretty enticing.

Tier 2 - The Very Good Ones

I'm not buying into those who are down on Lucas Raymond. I'm just not. He's being deployed strangely in Sweden, but what I've seen is impressive. My tracked data has been highly favourable towards him (71% SAT% ain't bad, for example), but he does show visible signs of potential discomfort with full time SHL play. He's an exceptionally skilled player under pressure, creative in transition and in the offensive zone, and can be a very dangerous offensive quarterback. His upside is tremendous, but he has been a hard player to get a read on early.
Yes, Marco Rossi is a Top-5 player to me. His data lines up with Lafrenière in a few ways, his tracked data is outstanding, and he consistently drives play unbelievably well. He's a player who when I've tracked him, nearly every shift he's doing things that push play his way at both ends. I tracked a game where his team clawed back for a 5-4 win where he had 5 assists, and could have easily scored at least two more points had things been slightly different. He's skilled, agile, plays hard, has swagger, and if he can rein in the legitimately troublesome moments he's had this year, he could be a tremendous player down the line.
Yes, Tim Stützle is also a Top-5 player to me. His hands are remarkable, his perimeter play with his ability to cut into dangerous areas and carve opponents is a ton of fun to watch. He's no slouch in his own end, but he's going to make his money by scoring points. His shot is electric, and his passing against men is often dangerous. I'm a huge fan, especially with how much he's improved over the last calendar season.
Anton Lundell might not have a massive ceiling, but he could be a fantastic two-way centre who may not get fans out of their seats often, but he could be a person hockey nerds and coaches alike love. He pushes possession extremely well and should be a valuable NHLer for years, if not on boxes of cereal across the league.
Drysdale is the best available defender in this draft, hands down and to me it isn't close. He does things Bowen Byram didn't that I think makes him a more projectable two-way player, but he's every bit as capable of being as dangerous as Byram offensively. There's a refinement there and a calculated aggressiveness that I enjoy watching.
Ok, Holtz and Perfetti are lower than most. I'll say this: I really like Alexander Holtz's combination of skating and scoring ability. He's got a legitimately excellent release and scoring ability and is underrated with how engaged he is when he doesn't have the puck. Trouble is, beyond that I feel there is work to be done. He's unreliable in his own zone, and his passing can be unreliable if not making the conservative play. There is a great package of fundamental skill there, but you will need to know what to expect out of him if you're drafting him. With Perfetti, I see him listed as a centre, but often used as a winger, and I feel that's the best position for him, at least right now. His hands and creativity are among the best in the draft, and betting on that could convince me to put him right at the top of this tier, but I've found his defensive engagement to be poor, and his skating speed leads me to believe that he cheats high in the defensive zone to jump into rushes before they really get moving. It can work, but similar to Holtz, he might be a case of "you can't score points if you aren't at least competent defensively". Offensively, however, Perfetti is an unbelievable passer with great hands and a very good release on him, and could be an A-level power play quarterback, but my outlook on him is skeptical at the moment.
I usually don't put goalies in the 1st round. I'm pretty sure Askarov belongs here. After the players ranked prior are drafted, I'm willing to take the bet on him. I don't know what else to say. The guy is good and true #1 goaltending is invaluable.
When Dylan Holloway is on, he can completely take over a shift. When he isn't, he can totally disappear, but he's also one of the youngest players in the NCAA and is coming from the AJHL. I love his energy and offensive skill, and I have all the time in the world to discuss taking him anywhere in this range. Considering his youth in the NCAA playing bottom six minutes with very little power play time in my experience, he could be flying under the radar.
Rounding out the only tier where I'll write on everyone, I'm a believer in Noel Gunler. I've learned to try to avoid betting a player will capture their game at it's worst, and err on the side of the player at their best. Gunler is dangerous in transition and a great fast break playmaker. He has scoring ability sure, but so far in the games I've tracked of his, 28% of his pass attempts are directed at or through dangerous areas. His 69% SAT% is nice, and while there are issues with engagement defensively and with putting enough behind his passes to get to their target, at his best, Gunler certainly belongs here. If he's the guy that drops to the 2nd round, I run to the microphone and give him a go, rumoured attitude issues and all.

Tier 3 - Could Be Great, or Nothing.

Now we're getting spicy. Rodion Amirov leads this group, and I've been bouncing he and Jan Mysak between tiers 2 and 3 for a while. I'm a bigger believer in Amirov, but both are great scoring wingers. Mysak is younger, but I think gets undervalued due to his team. Litvinov is not a great modern team, often valuing dumping and chasing pucks and appear to be a team plagued by innate panic. Mysak falls into those habits, but the talent is blatantly there for him to be something much more. He's an effective member of the team, but I think he could be a very useful offensive piece. He's just hard to get a read on when he gets so few good looks. Amirov on the other hand has not looked out of place in the KHL to my eye, and has performed very well at the VHL level, let alone the MHL level. He doesn't show the habits of carelessness and individual focus I often see with young Russian players, and I think there's a great talent waiting to come out over time. He's in a very good program in Ufa with a number of high level young players, and I feel he's only going to get better.
Kasper Simontaival is having a slow season on paper, but my data tracked on him is outstanding. He pushes possession, gets dangerous looks constantly, skates well, and for an offensive winger, he could potentially be a steal. He should be scoring a lot more than he is, and I think those who overlook him will be sorely mistaken down the line.
I have to feel for Hendrix Lapierre. I'm usually not afraid of drafting injured players, but three concussions in under a year, an injury that is often easier to get the more you have, is legitimately concerning. Incredibly Hlinka aside, I've felt he played fine in Chicoutimi with a lot of room to grow. In reality, I'd have a hard time taking the chance in the 1st round, but he's ranked here because dang nabbit, he's talented enough.
Roni Hirvonen, William Wallinder, and Lukas Reichel are three players I will run through a wall for. Wallinder has the size, skating ability and stick skill to potentially be the best defender not named Drysdale in the draft. Absolutely love his raw tools. Hirvonen is a high octane offensive player who has impressed me with his refined game every time I've seen him, even if his team isn't great. On Reichel, people are sleeping on him, but his skating, quick decision making, and somewhat mediocre linemates (Maxim Lapierre, predominantly) lead me to be really high on him. He's a shooting machine from dangerous areas and can be highly valuable in transition. Definitely one to pay attention to as the season goes on.
I want to love Dawson Mercer. I see the talent, but the consistency and data just isn't there.
Jérémie Poirier is going to go as far as his brain takes him. In terms of raw talent, he's the #2 defender available, but his team works poorly as a unit and he's often a major part of that. Holding onto pucks too long, not engaging defensively, skating into 1 on 3s, and ignoring clear looks to linemates makes everything but offensive production look less than ideal on paper. If he can calm his game down a tad and play with a bit more dynamic ability, he could be a great pickup.

Tier 4 - The Real Question Marks

I already know what you're thinking, and please keep in mind that these are tiers. Justin Barron and Jean-Luc Foudy have been off to poor starts, but they're improving. I'm a big fan of the raw tools in both, especially Foudy, but I will be paying close attention to them over the year. I could be convinced to take them at the top end of the tier, but there are names in here that I am very excited about... like...
Okay, I'm a numbers guy, and Marat Khusnutdinov doesn't have great production at first glance, but I've seen a lot of this guy play. Similar to Marco Rossi, every time Khusnutdinov steps on the ice so far when I've seen him, he's awesome. He's setting linemates up for scoring chances that are whiffed on, he's playing exceptional two-way hockey, he sets up behind the net to make a play beautifully. He's scoring primary points on 75% of goals scored while he's on the ice. He's getting points on 92%. He's a player I know you could grab in the 2nd, but I'm a big, big believer in him, especially considering his age. He's not getting much PP time, and his team is absolutely stacked and he's flying under the radar. He pushes pace, gets fantastic results, and if he can get stronger with better linemates and finishing ability on his own, he could be a steal.
I just really like Jake Neighbours' upside. Skill, skating, agility, I'm a fan.
Trust me, everyone. I see your Antonio Stranges gifs, and I've tracked a game of his that was comically lopsided in his favor, but there's something about his game and his data that just... doesn't feel right. He's an effective offensive player, but he's nearly invisible defensively at times, and his skating when not 10-2'ing around is... fine? Maybe I need to just watch more, but I have a hard time bumping him into my 1st round.
The group of Gushchin, Novak, Francis, Pashin, Foerster, Jarvis, Wiesblatt, Farrell and Tullio all fall into the "potentially good complimentary player" category. I love Pashin's talent most of all of them, but guys like Novak, Gushchin, Francis and Foerster can be dangerous any time they step on the ice. I particularly like how Ryan Francis gets around the ice, and if he can get stronger on his feet and keep low to the ice, he could be a real sneaky offensive threat down the line.
Joni Jurmo and Samuel Knazko have been real joys for me to watch in the Finnish junior league. Jurmo stuck out while tracking Juuso Mäenpää a while back, and he's been impressive. Aggressive in the neutral zone, and a wonderful skater for his size with underrated offensive ability on a stacked team. Knazko is much the same, but from my viewing, appears to favor defending the middle of the ice a bit more and using his edgework to create space from forecheckers. I'll need to watch more, but I really like what I see.
Similar to Jurmo/Knazko, I've enjoyed watching William Villeneuve a lot more than some other Sea Dogs players this year. Villeneuve is one of those "safer" defenders who plays smart and creates offense well. He's still up at 24%INV with good even strength results even if he's a bit "safer". He's a player who seems to understand what the situation is while he's playing, rarely making poor decisions and getting around the ice smoothly and effectively. I'm unsure of potential, but he's a highly respectable player to my eye and data.
Lots of people are hyping Michael Benning's production, especially compared to Cale Makar, which certainly stands out to me, but I highly, highly doubt Michael Benning is Cale Makar. There was a ruthless attacking mentality to Cale Makar's game, where Benning is much more of a pace controlling puck mover, but an effective one at that. Similar to Villeneuve, I could see Benning have good puck moving ability and PP upside, but his size and lack of strength can cause issues defensively that might be hidden by playing in the AJHL. He certainly earns himself his share of controlled offensive entries, and does well to cut play off in the neutral zone, but unless his velocity and edgework comes a step while at college, I think his upside could be somewhat limited. I'm certainly not comfortable dropping him beneath this tier though, so please don't get too upset if you're a fan of his.
Of the 30 players where I've tracked an estimated neutral zone transition velocity, Roby Järventie appears to be the fastest by a wide margin. 45.4 km/h is well ahead of 2nd place, Swedish defender Helge Grans at 40.8 km/h.

Tier 5 - "I Dunno, Maybe?"

This tier is smaller, and there's a breed of player in here that I'm usually against drafting particularly high. Daemon Hunt, Alexander Nikishin, Braden Schneider and Ryan O'Rourke are in here. Big, physical defensemen who can get around the ice okay. I do like Schneider, but he's nearly a 2019 eligible. I haven't liked what I've seen of Ryan O'Rourke and I think his team masks his issues moving pucks and skating around the ice, but he has gotten results thus far. Nikishin has some nice hands for a defender, but he's hard to get a read on playing solid KHL minutes but seems a bit overwhelmed with the pace of the game most times I've seen him.
Kasper Puutio is a guy I've liked. His team in Swift Current is... not great. He has some moments where I find him impressive, somewhat reminding me of Ville Heinola from 2019. He's a good two-way player who can cut play off in the neutral zone well, but I'm not sure of his real upside.
Ville Ottavainen is a big defender who I love to watch skate around the ice. He might end up higher in my rankings this year due to his two-way numbers and his skating ability, but I'll need to see more.
Dmitri Ovchinnikov is my mini-Marat. A guy who I love to watch play who might need better linemates to really show what he can do. He's a great skater who can weave through the neutral zone and get to dangerous areas, while also being a good perimeter player willing to set plays up off the boards and making intelligent defensive reads from time to time. I really like what I see from him and over time he could become a nice offensive leaning two-way energy winger.
I've really liked Colby Ambrosio with Tri-City. He's an effective piece of a team that isn't where it was last year. Good young skater with good scoring instincts and a 30%+INV in the USHL, which is usually a pretty good benchmark.

Honourable Mentions

Jake Sanderson and Luke Tuch are two guys who just missed the cut. I like Sanderson's skating, but he's a long term project with nothing much to show for this year. Tuch, I'm just not sure. On that note, I've really enjoyed watching Eamon Powell play.
I need to see more of Jack Thompson and Théo Rochette.
Will Cuylle should probably be in here, but I haven't noticed him on the ice when I've caught Windsor games and his metrics are poor.
Nick Malik is a not-small goalie playing against men and doing well. That checks a few boxes.
Lukas Svejkovsky is a fun player to watch who gets great results. I've got an eye on him a bit.
Russian names like Pavel Tyutnev, Maxim Beryozkin, Maxim Nevolin and overagers Takhir Mingachyov, Danil Alalykin have all stood out to me for various reasons, especially Tyutnev playing bottom-6 minutes with Loko Yaroslavl.
Victor Mancini appears to be getting decent minutes, and all of his points are primary points at even strength and he's up near a 100% TotCat% on a stacked team. Frölunda's U20 team scores 5.6 even strength goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. That is really something and worth keeping an eye on.
I probably dislike your favourite players.

Closing Thoughts

So that's that. The first few tiers that are increasingly likely to change the further down you go. Lots of names I've laid eyes on but haven't tracked, lots of names I have data on but haven't laid eyes on, and there's still lots of hockey left to play. I'm only really confident in my Top-40 or so with room for more players in that group over time. This is an imperfect science, but all we're trying to do is cut through biases and isolate good players who carry value that is beyond that typically available at any team's given pick. I certainly over time have evolved my tastes to prefer a certain brand of play, and hopefully that's on display in these rankings and with the data I track that will be publicly released around draft time.

If you've made it this far, thank you all so much for your support through the last 15 months as we've seen this platform grow significantly. This work is a joy to put together. These kids are chasing their dreams, and all we can do is sit and watch, but boy is it ever fun to watch. In my dreams, I'm drafting some of these guys into my own program, but until then, I have you, the reader, so thank you.

The next rankings are likely out in January or Februrary, depending on how confident I'm feeling on a given week.

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Scouching's Final 2019 Draft Rankings

6/3/2019

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Welcome to the final Scouching Rankings for the 2019 NHL Draft. If you haven't viewed the accompanying video profiling the higher end of the rankings, be sure to click here and check it out!

As always, thank you all for the support through the year. I think the season was a huge building block for the project and I can't wait to see where we're at in 2020 and beyond. Without you, the reader, none of this would be possible.

This ranking outlines some of the important metrics I track over the year in the Prospect Tracker, so if you need a refresher on what these numbers mean, look no further:

DY = Draft year. D+1 is a player undrafted once, etc.
NHLeS - Age, league, and position adjusted measure of production. A score of >20 is considered a solid 1st round talent. 30 is historically notable production.
Inv% - Average involvement of a player in team offense. Calculated as player points per game divided by team goals per game. In the CHL and other junior leagues, a defender at or above 25% and a forward above 40% is considered top-level. Men's leagues overseas is much murkier, so I usually take the league with the most games played or most ice time.
Cat% - Impact on even strength goals for and against as a percentage vs. team average. If your Off.Cat% is 100%, you're doubling your team's output of even strength goals for (good). If your Def.Cat% is 100%, you are doubling your team's input of even strength goals against (bad). Total is the sum of both.

A Brief Note: There are no goalies in this ranking, mostly because they seem to be evaluated on a different plane than skaters, but in short, based on what I've seen with my eyes, Spencer Knight, Pyotr Kochetkov, Mads Sogaard, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Konovalov, Isaiah Saville, Taylor Gauthier, Trent Miner, Erik Portillo and Hunter Jones are a "Top-10" set of goaltenders that I'd have my eye on for varying reasons. Amir Miftakhov is a curious one as well, just off of how many pucks he faced in a pro men's league and his remarkable athleticism.

Tier I - Hughes v. Kakko

Let's make this clear up front. Jack Hughes is the #1 prospect in this draft. At the same time, this does not mean there isn't a discussion to be had. Both players bring different traits to the game, but the traits Hughes brings are rarer, and likely more beneficial to pushing play positively when it matters most.
Hughes is a phenomenal skater who is a puck rushing monster with exceptional vision in the offensive zone.
Kakko brings an advantage in terms of his play along the boards, resiliency with the puck, and his track record of producing at a high level in a very difficult league, and he will be a very nice consolation prize at #2 for the Rangers.
I believe both players could be viewed similarly in a few years in terms of on-ice impact, but the tools Hughes brings to the table is something every team could always use more of, but comes at a cost most teams are unwilling to pay.
Hughes with Taylor Hall for the next season at the least gives me anxiety.

Tier II

This is a group that separated themselves more and more over the year to me. Byram and Turcotte appear to be isolating themselves at 3/4 in the public sphere, but you could make the case that any of these players have the talent to go in any order at these picks.
Kirby Dach is bar none my favourite player in this draft to watch play not named Kakko or Hughes. His combination of creativity, skill, power, and the ease with which he plays the game is just wonderful to watch, and his ceiling could lead him to be on a similar level to Hughes and Kakko, but he really needs to capture his play at it's best more often. Going over 20% of the season with a 0.2 points per game scoring rate isn't going to take you far, but I'm more than optimistic.
I was a Podkolzin doubter, but I see the appeal after digging in deeper. Remarkable ferocity to his game, forces his opposition to make a play, and moves pucks up the ice remarkably, but I'm skeptical of his upside.
Arthur Kaliyev here might surprise folks, but the more I watch, the more I actually really like. He strikes me as a Patrik Laine-esque player, just with a more varied offensive skillset, minus the A+++ shot. Kaliyev isn't the sexiest player in transition, but around the net, he can be gross. His hands are exceptional. His vision is underrated. His swagger factor is through the roof. The only thing that could hold him back is what's between his ears. He'll probably slip quite far due to perceived motivational issues and his position, but I think he can hang with this group.
The Cole Caufield hype train is in full force. He continued to improve all year and could be a remarkable goal scorer in the NHL. I think he brings more to the game than an Alex DeBrincat, especially when it comes to his mobility and puck skill, but there are legitimate questions surrounding his play in his own end, but when push comes to shove, he does the hardest thing in hockey really, really well.

Tier III

These are guys I see as interesting prospects that could be useful players one day, but may have lower ceilings, or riskier high ceilings.
It's no secret that I'm a huge Bobby Brink fan. His team's scoring dropped by 50% without him in the lineup. A year ago, he was nowhere to be found. Yes, his skating is poor, but his approach to the game, his two-way metrics, and his ability to dance with the puck in tight areas indicate that if his skating can come a few strides, he could be a massive, massive steal.
Ryan Suzuki is very much a perimeter player, but Joe Veleno has some very similar looking metrics last year, and he's turned out okay. Suzuki has the talent to be an aggressive attacking offensive player, and all the creativity you could want, but it seems he's reluctant to jump into dangerous areas. With some strength on his frame, he could be special, even if he strays more to the outside of the ice quarterbacking an offense.
Connor McMichael has all the speed he could ever want, but doesn't use it a ton and seems a bit inefficient in generating that speed. Do I care? Not really. The guy might need to turn it up a notch in his own end, but getting to dangerous areas and scoring no-BS points is his game, and you can never have enough of that on your team.
Nicholas Robertson is small, but very young for the draft, and I've come away impressed every time. He has remarkable puck skill, vision and skating ability, but is another perimeter player who played a lot more wing than centre, and his deeper metrics were "fine". My eyes tell me there's a number of higher gears for him to hit, and he was highly consistent all year, so I'm hopeful for Robertson moving forward.
I honestly have no idea where Moritz Seider's career is heading, but I like his combination of skills. I think there are players with more tangible upside, but if I had multiple first rounders this year, I could easily take a swing and see what happens.
Bjornfot, Broberg and Soderstrom. Three very different players, three different levels of upside. I think Broberg could end up being the best of the three based on his mobility, power and puck protection ability, but there's a ways to go with him. Decisionmaking and puck movement are issues that will need fixing. Bjornfot has been a favourite of mine all year and he could have great offensive potential. Soderstrom is probably the likeliest of all to work out as a responsible two-way minutes eater, but I don't see a huge ceiling there.

Tier IV

Now we're in the real nitty gritty. This is a massive group that I think has a lot of really, really interesting talent available.
Artemi Knyazev is an exceptional skater with great offensive ability and he improved in the back half of the season, nearly doubling his NHLeS in the process.
I really like Matthew Robertson's tools, but his numbers don't jump out at you. I think there's a really nice defender there, but I'm not sure what the ceiling is there.
Jamieson Rees and Albin Grewe are just so much fun to watch. They play hard, they play with skill, they come at you at all times and I've come to really love that style of play, so long as the play doesn't get carried away, can actually score points, and don't put themselves in bad positions when things don't go their way.
My thoughts on Ethan Keppen, Zac Jones and Dom Fensore are well documented and could be steals, Fensore especially. You can't hit what you can't catch, and Fensore is probably the 2nd best skater on the USA U-18 team behind Jack Hughes to my eyes.
I was fully expecting Yegor Serdyuk to be underwhelming based on what I had heard through the grapevine, but after a few viewings, I think he's tremendously undervalued. His skating is solid, he can protect a puck well, his skill is solid, and I saw him attempt dangerous plays time after time that could have been great opportunities for his teammates.
I've always really liked John Beecher. Big centre who can skate and rough it up along the boards to free up pucks and make a play. Not sure there's tremendous offensive upside there, but with some good linemates, he could be a very interesting player.
Leevi Aaltonen is one of my favourites in this range to watch. Tremendous skater who I found begging to play a more aggressive game. He's truly gifted with his feet, and is more than willing to shoot or pass to put points up, but his shots come from a ways out more often than you'd like. The tools are there, the metrics are there, and if he gets a bit more confidence, look out.
If Nikita Alexandrov were a day older, he'd be a 2018 eligible. As basically a D+1, his production wasn't great, but he's devastating around the net and plays hard with some solid skill. Might be a low ceiling, but he plays the game right and could chip in sooner than some others in this range.
Lassi Thomson always struck me as "Evan Bouchard but not as good", and to have Evan Bouchard's profile and be successful, you almost need to be as good as Evan Bouchard is. Thomson's skating isn't fantastic, but he can really crank it from the point, and he does it often. His team wasn't great, but his two-way metrics look solid. He might be gone after round one, but if he starts slipping deeper into the 2nd, I could certainly take the chance.
People are labeling Patrik Puistola as a potential steal, and I could see it. There are flashes of a real skilled scoring winger. He might be a complimentary player in the NHL, but I could easily see him in any NHL jersey contributing offensively if he captures his best traits more often.

Tier V

These are the real interesting guys who I swing on in the middle rounds.
Jayden Struble is an offensive defender I think could be ranked even higher. I'm a big fan of his skating and skill, but I'm just skeptical of prep players based on my viewings. It's just so hard to gauge their actual talent when the quality of their games is simply a few steps below most other major junior leagues. Almost the same situation as John Farinacci from my viewings. Great skaters, great tools, tons of production, but what happens at the next level?
Albert Johansson has great offensive tools, but his defensive play and decision making needs work. Tailed off quite a bit down the back half of the year as well.
Marshall Warren is almost certainly gone by the 3rd round, but I really like his power and skating on his feet. Not sure of what his upside is, but he had some really nice flashes in my time watching that team.
Lucas Feuk stands out in a number of ways on paper, similar to Linus Karlsson last year, but I'll admit I haven't seen a tremendous amount of him.
Kim Nousiainen breaks the 25%INV threshold for defenders that I value quite a bit, and I think that is worth swinging on singlehandedly. I liked his U18, but his metrics are what stick out to me.
Mattias Norlinder has really caught on in recent months and I certainly think I had nothing to do with it, but I've been a fan of his for a while this year, especially once he hit the Allsvenskan. Great skater with great hands and is a lot of fun to watch.

The "Who Knows" Watchlist

I've been a fan of Joe Garreffa for a few years now and he continues to produce. More of an offensive waterbug who may have more PP upside than anything, he brings great energy, great pace, and great offensive ability, and late in the draft he could easily be an overage swing someone takes.
Part of me still believes in Blake Murray's goal scoring. A player I wanted to dig into more and expected more from, he should still be picked as a "we'll see" player. I'm still not sure.
Pontus Englund is an analytical darling from the Swedish U20 league, and he's off to Liiga powerhouse KalPa next year. The guy scored a ton on a bad team, and can absolutely smash pucks from the blueline.
Really liked Simon Gnyp's offensive play at the U18s, but he's a long term project.
Nathan Staios would be a pick solely on his skating and offensive play. He needs work in his own end, and taking his overall game to another level, but his motor and fluidity are excellent.
Rtishchev, Lisin, Fyodorov, Ogirchuk and Komissarov are all great fun overagers I enjoyed watching out of Russia this year, and Chistyakov could be the Alex Romanov of 2019. Great skater who can pass pucks effectively.
Mike Koster is here solely due to his metrics. They're insane. He's way down my board because I've never been impressed with him unless he's at the blueline and making a play from there. His mobility isn't great and Rhett Pitlick always impressed me more.
Cooper Moore is a defender with a 35% involvement at prep school, not the highest level of hockey that I find hard to gauge, but those numbers are interesting and he could be one to keep an eye on.

Final Thoughts

This year's draft to me is characterized by a ton of different players from a variety of different backgrounds. I'm not quite sure of how much Grade-A Talent will be coming out of this draft, but the USA National Program was one of the greatest teams I've ever seen play at this level, and I'm fascinated at where these guys may end up. Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are extremely high level talents that should contribute immediately, but beyond that, how you develop these players will be vital. I do strongly believe that once you pass the 2nd round, you could come away with a lot of very interesting prospects at every pick. There are enigmas everywhere, and there could be some great players to come out of places in this draft that you wouldn't expect.

With this article, the pre-draft coverage from Scouching is complete. There will be a post-draft video coming, and be sure to tune in to Scouching's inaugural mock draft, Wednesday, June 19th at 9:30EST, and definitely check out Scouch's Draftathon Friday, June 21st at 7:30PM, as well as Saturday, June 22nd at 10:30AM, where we'll be tracking all 7 rounds live. If you can, donations collected during the streams will go to the YouCanPlay Project, so be sure to come see what we're up to!

Thank you all, if you're a Twitter follower, YouTube subscriber, or a Patreon supporter, it all means the world to me. We'll be back in 2019-20 bigger and better than ever for what looks to be the best draft I've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.

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The 2019 Scouching Mock Draft

6/3/2019

0 Comments

The Recap

Gut 1 - New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes - C
Brain 1 - New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes - C

Gut 2 - New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain 2 - New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko - RW

Gut 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte - C
Brain 3 - Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte - C

Gut 4 - Colorado Avalanche - Kirby Dach - C
Brain 4 - Colorado Avalanche - Kirby Dach

Gut 5 - Los Angeles Kings - Dylan Cozens - C
Brain 5 - Los Angeles Kings - Bowen Byram - D

Gut 6 - Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain 6 - Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras - C/W

Gut 7 - Buffalo Sabres - Bowen Byram - D
Brain 7 - Buffalo Sabres - Dylan Cozens - C

Gut 8 - Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain 8 - Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs - LW

Gut 9 - Anaheim Ducks - Vasili Podkolzin - RW
Brain 9 - Anaheim Ducks - Alex Newhook - C

Gut 10 - Vancouver Canucks - Alex Newhook - C
Brain 10 - Vancouver Canucks - Cole Caufield - C/LW

Gut 11 - Philadelphia Flyers - Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain 11 - Philadelphia Flyers - Vasili Podkolzin - RW

Gut 12 - Minnesota Wild - Spencer Knight - G
Brain 12 - Minnesota Wild - Ryan Suzuki - C

Gut 13 - Florida Panthers - Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain 13 - Florida Panthers - Arthur Kaliyev - RW

Gut 14 - Arizona Coyotes - Cam York - D
Brain 14 - Arizona Coyotes - Matthew Boldy - LW

Gut 15 - Montreal Canadiens - Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain 15 - Montreal Canadiens - Cam York - D

After publishing this first version, I realize I totally left out Cole Caufield from the gut picks until 16. My hunch is that his size was a factor because NHL, but it seems teams are seeing the forest through the trees on him. I would bet Caufield is gone by the time the 10th pick is made, but he is very tiny, so you never know.

Let's cut right to the chase. Congratulations to the St. Louis Blues/Boston Bruins for their wonderful Stanley Cup victory yadda yadda yadda. Here's the rest of the mock draft!

#16 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Cole Caufield - RW
Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

Gutsplanation: Honestly if the draft allows Cole Caufield to fall to 16, I may need to move to Colorado. He's only gotten more and more attention from teams down the stretch after a record-setting U18 tournament, but his size may push him a bit further than he should go. It's extremely unlikely and a great example of how narratives can shift.
Brainsplanation: I see this pick as Colorado's "found wallet" pick, and I think they value the analytics that favour Brink. They can afford to be patient while he sorts out the skating, but I love the intensity and attitude he brings to the game. His skill, vision and goal scoring ability are all exceptional, and if he can figure out his top speed, he could be a huge steal. You usually can't screw up at 4th overall, so you may as well swing at 16.

#17 - Vegas Golden Knights
Gut: Tobias Björnfot - D
Brain: Ville Heinola - D

Gutsplanation: I see a number of defensemen coming off the board in middle of the round. The top end is full of centres and skilled wingers, but there are many solid defensemen available that should be available in this range. The Golden Knights have a relatively strong prospect pipeline, even if they lack the high end potential of NIck Suzuki and Erik Brannström. I think Vegas heads to Sweden and takes a potential offensive defenseman in Björnfot. His skating is solid, he's willing to shoot, and his two-way play is well refined. Of all the defenders available here, he may have the best combination of a reliably solid floor with a reasonably high ceiling. I also wonder about Erik Brannström's former teammate Simon Holmström and Vegas.
Brainsplanation: While Björnfot is a solid pick, I've really liked Heinola the more I've watched of him. He produced well in the FInnish Liiga, he was reliable for his age in both ends, and he has some really interesting skill. Vegas has never dipped into Finland, but Heinola could be a good start.

#18 - Dallas Stars
Gut: Ville Heinola - D
Brain: Connor McMichael - C

Gutsplanation: I'm a fan of Heinola and I think it's perfectly possible Dallas goes back to Finland and drafts the slippery two-way defender. I think there's a lot of potential with Heinola if his skating can take a step, and considering the lengths his game has gone this year, that could be a good bet.
Brainsplanation: McMichael might be one of the more underrated offensive centres in this draft. He led the London Knights in scoring and made his play in the offensive zone look effortless. He can make a play as well as he scores goals, he gets a ton of chances from dangerous areas, and he often flashes his speed in transition. He was somewhat inconsistent, especially in his own end, but he has some real upside that could round out some excellent centre depth in Dallas down the road.

#19 - Ottawa Senators
Gut: Moritz Seider - D
Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

Gutsplanation: Seider is probably the biggest wild card and I have zero clue what he could turn into. He's a big, right hand shot with good mobility and played against men full time. He shined in the World Juniors Division 1A tournament, and played for his country at the World Championships a month after turning 18. That sounds like a recipe for a defensively shallow NHL team with questionable leadership to give an interesting defender who has a longer resume than most other 1st round picks a heck of an opportunity. I think Seider will need time to develop, but he's got a resume, he's in everyone's mind, and Ottawa needs pretty much anything, and fast.
Brainsplanation: If you want to be patient, which you probably should, Björnfot is a really interesting profile who may not have the resume of Seider, but brings more of an upside that is easier to picture. I like his game in both ends and his willingness to attack the net with his shot.

#20 - New York Rangers
Gut: Philip Broberg - D
Brain: Moritz Seider - D

Gutsplanation: The Rangers took K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist in 2018, and after taking Kappo Kakko and VItali Kravtsov, I would think they "need" a centre more than they "need" another defender, but this is a pick you got for moving Kevin Hayes to the 1st round eliminated Winnipeg Jets. This is found money. I don't think there's anyone left at 20 in this draft with as much raw upside as Broberg. Yes, his defensive play is questionable, his power, skating ability, and passing vision in the neutral and offensive zone could turn him into something quite special. I'm certainly skeptical, but if I'm the Rangers, I aim for the biggest upside, regardless of risk, and if Broberg works, a defense group of Adam Fox, Miller, Broberg, and Lundkvist could be a real pain.
Brainsplanation: In my brain, the thinking is the same. This pick is found money. Take your swing. If Seider is here at 20, he's got more of a different kind of upside. Like Lundkvist, he's mobile and reliable. With his combination of skills, a little patience could do Seider very well.

#21 - Pittsburgh Penguins
Gut: Bobby Brink - RW
Brain: Victor Söderström - D

Gutsplanation: Pittsburgh had four picks in last year's draft. Calen Addison, Filip Hallander, and Justin Almeida being three of them indicates to me that they swing on production, and per-dollar value on the pick. Addison and Hallander had no business falling to where they did in 2018, and I believe Brink is in the same boat. He's feisty, skilled, and just gets the job done. The Penguins have developed winger after winger into guys who get the job done, and Brink could be the best one yet. Brink brings tremendous value at 21, and I imagine Jim Rutherford isn't too concerned with his skating considering some of the names he's brought into Pittsburgh.
Brainsplanation: I'm a big Victor Söderström fan, especially when it comes to his skating and reliability. I just don't feel there's a huge ceiling there. A lot of the higher ceiling players are gone before this pick, but Söderström does bring value at #21. His mobility hints at upside, but his production hasn't been great, and I haven't been tremendously impress in my viewings with just how exciting of a player he is. I think he's an NHL player one day, but may be more of a reliable minutes eater, which is something the Penguins might like to have on an ELC down the road.

#22 - LA Kings
Gut: Thomas Harley - D
Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

Gutsplanation: I'm much cooler on Harley than most, and I think teams might be spooked by his "just okay" U18 and his metrics in his own end last season with Mississauga. I like his mobility, I like his passing ability, but his decision making can take time, and he can be absent in the defensive end. His offensive metrics are excellent on paper, but much of his production was secondary assists or power play points. There's upside, so LA using their second 1st round pick on a higher upside player seems reasonable.
Brainsplanation: I appreciated Tomasino's game the more I watched him. I don't see huge upside, but I see a maturity and subtlety to his game that you don't often see in guys his age. His scoring rates and impacts on goals for and against were very solid, and I think he fits the Kings' approach to the game well. Solid possession player, responsible on the ice, plays with determination and has offensive ability. Someone like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty make good mentors for Tomasino and Byram after this draft.

#23 - New York Islanders
Gut: Philip Tomasino - C
Brain: Philip Broberg - D

Gutsplanation: Lou Lamoriello went with pure upside last year with Dobson and Wahlstrom, surprising nobody. This year, I feel he's going to go with a more "Lou-esque" pick. Tomasino just feels like a player the Devils would've drafted in the late 1st in years prior. He's responsible, has a good offensive game, and plays a refined style that the Islanders might really like. He doesn't have the upside of a Matt Barzal, but he would be a solid option at 23 with some nice upside.
Brainsplanation: Or Lou could go "full send" and pick the guy dropping down the conventional board. Broberg has huge upside and would be a nice pickup at 23. His mobility and power can excite fans and with solid defense depth on the Island in 2019, he can take his time working out his issues and slowly work his way into the lineup.

#24 - Nashville Predators
Gut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW
Brain: Jakob Pelletier - LW

Gutsplanation: Someone is going to take the risk on the massive upside of Arthur Kaliyev. Somehow I feel that the Predators are going to pull a Tolvanen and go with the Uzbek-American winger. I've really liked Kaliyev the more I've seen and I find the concerns about him somewhat overblown. The only limit will be how far his brain takes him. I don't see him as a quarterback of a line, but as a pure scoring winger, he could be a huge get in Nashville. The organization feels like a fit for Kaliyev's approach to the game and his personality. They might want a defender like Harley here, but I bet Kaliyev would get a good long look here.
Brainsplanation: Nashville seems to like energy guys like Ryan Hartman, and Jakob Pelletier absolutely brings that kind of energy to the game. Playing on a fantastic line in Moncton inflated some scoring on his part, but he was heavily relied upon as an aggressive power winger that reminded me a bit of Brendan Gallagher. He had high and medium shots exceptionally often and could be a very exciting complimentary energy player one day.

#25 - Washington Capitals
Gut: Victor Söderström - D
Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

Gutsplanation: The Capitals drafted Alexander Alexeyev last year, and the cupboard is still quite bare. Söderström brings a higher floor player that Washington could value coming out of this draft. There's higher upside available, but Söderström has nice tools that Washington could mold into a solid two-way defender, especially with names like Nick Jensen sticking around.
Brainsplanation: Upside, Upside, Upside. Robertson was a remarkably consistent scorer in a big role with Peterborough. I love his skill and offensive creativity. He's one of the youngest players available in the draft and had what would have been a top D-1 season if he were less than a week older. I think over time he'll play with a bit more confidence as he gets stronger and older. Washington can afford to be patient, even if their cupboard is relatively bare and Robertson could pay tremendous dividends one day.

#26 - Calgary Flames
Gut: Nicholas Robertson - LW
Brain: Thomas Harley - D

Gutsplanation: The Flames are always drafting skill, and Robertson brings tons. Someone like Connor McMichael or Nils Höglander might be an option here as well, but I think Calgary has really liked the progression their undersized scoring players (Pettersen, Phillips, even Koumontzis) have had, and swinging on more of that with high upside could be an interesting move.
Brainsplanation: For the same reasons as outlined above, and Calgary has developed plenty of defensemen recently. Harley would be in one of the best groups of defenders for a rookie to learn from, and if he irons out his defensive issues, he could be a nice piece of the future.

#27 - Tampa Bay Lightning
Gut: Connor McMichael - C
Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

Gutsplanation: Tampa under Julien Brisbois will be an interesting one to watch as this is his first career first round pick as GM of the Lightning. 2018 second round pick Gabe Fortier was an undersized scoring winger who had a very nice follow-up season with Baie-Comeau, but I feel like they're looking for a centre or a defender here. McMichael feels like the best fit considering his offensive potential and flashes of great speed up the ice.
Brainsplanation: I imagine this pick is traded for cap relief, but who knows. Brisebois could just as easily go with a different variety of scoring winger and head back to Quebec to pick the big heavy offensive winger from Sherbrooke. His team wasn't great, but he kept climbing my board all year. He's got great possession ability and flashes of solid skating, but he plays with a lot of power in his game. He could physically dominate the QMJHL in the next few years, but he doesn't rely solely on his strength to earn his production. I think there's good upside with Poulin, which Tampa is never afraid of, regardless of position.

#28 - Carolina Hurricanes
Gut: Jakob Pelletier - LW
Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

Gutsplanation: Carolina supposedly loves their analytics. Pelletier jumps off the page in the analytics world, even if you control for his line's quality. Might not be the straw that stirs the line's drink, but he plays an important role that I think Don Waddell and other hockey men would really like. He wouldn't be a bad pick here, and Carolina can fit Pelletier in their deep cupboards as a higher floor option that they can be patient with.
Brainsplanation: Carolina suppoesdly loves their analytics. Höglander played in the SHL all year and produced quite well. His skill is gross, his "fun" level on the ice is awesome, and if he's given some time to work out the kinks defensively and push possession a bit better against men, he could be a ton of fun. Carolina does have the option to try and bring Höglander over to the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers immediately a la Martin Necas. I like Höglander a ton, and Carolina taking the chance on his upside would be a very interesting experiment for The Jerks.

#29 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Nils Höglander - LW
Brain: Jamieson Rees - C

Gutsplanation: They swung on a lot of defense in 2018 and swung on another one with Bowen Byram in 2019. I think a high-upside scoring winger could do them well down the line and Höglander fits that. He's skilled, slippery and could be a great player for Jeff Skinner to work with.
Brainsplanation: The Ducks clearly love drafting energy and antagonism. Guys with skill alongside a more aggressive game. Rees is a high skill, high offense centre who plays really hard all of the time. If he can keep his head on straight and play more of a leader's role in Sarnia over time, he could be something. His U18 was excellent and he may go earlier than this pick, but he could be a great swing at 30 for Anaheim.

#30 - Boston Bruins
Gut: Jamieson Rees - C
Brain: Albin Grewe - C/RW

Gutsplanation: The Sabres drafted a ton of big, scary defensemen last year and one actually very good defender in Rasmus Dahlin. They still need more, and with their previous pick being an upside-heavy skilled winger, Johnson sounds like an interesting fit for Buffalo here. He brings a sense of calm and pace to the game and can break up transitions exceptionally well. His scoring rates were good at even strength and I'm excited to see where he goes with his career. He's reliable, has flashes of great mobility, plays with a bit of an edge and has excellent skill for a defender. You could do a lot worse with your third first round pick.
Brainsplanation: He's basically the Swedish Brad Marchand. He's feisty, skilled, and really needs to keep a lid on things staying out of the box. Involved himself in over 35% of Djurgardens' junior team's goals, which was the highest for all draft eligible SuperElit forwards. He was used in a 4th line role in the SHL and showed that he might have been a bit in over his head, but he plays with tremendous energy and brings a nice skillset with him.

#31 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Ryan Johnson - D
Brain: Spencer Knight - G

Gutsplanation: See the above writeup about Rees. He's a perfect fit for the Bruins. It's almost a no-brainer.
Brainsplanation: You know what's better than having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen? Having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Spencer Knight. The Sabres with their two late 1st round picks have a chance to take a swing on the most hyped goaltending prospect available this season. I like Knight's calmness and confidence that he brings to the game, but I'm skeptical of his talent ability. Goaltenders are weird to project however, and while Knight doesn't stop as many pucks as I would hope, with three first round picks, you can afford to take a bit of a risk on the goalie everyone won't stop talking about.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned in the post-lottery mock draft. None of these are likely to actually happen. Teams have a lot going on that we have no idea about, and they all will view players differently. I think finding the right fit is pivotal to success in the 1st round, especially in this year's draft once the twelfth or thirteenth picks go by. This draft feels a bit weaker than usual, but there are certainly interesting risks to take. It'll come down to just how risky teams want to be.

Please let me know how you feel about your favourite team's picks and the analysis behind them!

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The 2019 Post-Lottery NHL Mock Draft

4/9/2019

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Similar to numerical draft rankings, I'm not the biggest fan of mock drafts, but it seems like it's a rite of passage every year to explore who teams and fans might be looking at with their respective picks. That doesn't mean we can't have a bit of fun with the idea, so I've decided to split this mock draft into two parts: what my gut thinks will happen, and what my brain would do if I were in the same scenario, and each will get their own explanation.

Teams will value skills very differently from one another and there is a ton of time between now and the draft for guys to make the case to move up or down the draft, so that is important to keep in mind as draft day approaches. If your favourite team didn't take your favourite player, that's totally fine and let me know either here on on Twitter! None of this matters anyways!

Without further ado, behold. My Post-Lottery NHL Mock Draft.

#1 - New Jersey Devils
Gut: Jack Hughes - C
Brain: Jack Hughes - C

Gutsplanation: The Devils had their magic number called and as such, jumped from the 3 slot to the 1 slot and get the chance to add a centre who will make their team one of the more threatening down the middle in their division almost overnight. I can't see the Devils looking at Hischier/Zajac/Zacha and passing on the chance to add Jack Hughes to that depth in favour of a likely winger in Kaapo Kakko. Hughes is a phenomenal skater with exceptional playmaking ability who has pro-level transition ability and at the very least will be an extremely effective puck rusher down the middle. Nobody else in the draft gets pucks up the ice as efficiently nor as quickly as Hughes to my eyes, and his ceiling is extremely high as an open-ice speedy playmaker.

Brainsplanation: Not much else to add, but my brain always seems to tell me that you can never have too many centres with ludicrous speed who can rush a puck through the middle of the ice. Everything else is a bonus, and Hughes brings plenty. He does get rubbed off pucks, and he can make the odd poor decision, but his profile leads me to believe that his upside when he's a more mature pro could be the best out of this draft.

#2 - New York Rangers
Gut: Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain: Kaapo Kakko - RW

Gutsplanation: This is a no-brainer. I've been on the "Kakko is almost Hughes" train since November, but I don't think Kakko's potential ability is at the same level as Hughes. Kakko will be a great pro, however. His puck protection ability, his ability to exit and enter zones, and his all-around offensive talent make Kakko a fantastic piece to drop onto the Rangers roster in October. He should be effective immediately, and brings a Forsberg/Jagr-esque power offense to a team that already has Vitalii Kravtsov waiting around. The Rangers may need a centre more, it would be a very hard discussion to see them looking past Kakko.

Brainsplanation: See above. Kakko is good. Kakko is the #2 player available. You can work around the issues down the middle if it means you get Kaapo freaking Kakko. He also strikes me as a great fit with for David Quinn.

#3 - Chicago Blackhawks
Gut: Alex Turcotte - C
Brain: Alex Turcotte - C

Gutsplanation: Vasili Podkolzin was my first thought here, especially since there are connections to SKA St. Petersburg after their Andrei Altybarmakyan pick in 2017. On the other hand, Chicago has had a trend of drafting analytics-based picks and are likely looking to improve sooner rather than later, a scenario which Podkolzin doesn't really fit into as he hasn't had the club production you'd like, and his future in North America is murky at best. Turcotte is from the area, and his archetype really seems like it would suit the Blackhawks future as their core ages. Turcotte brings fantastic puck skills and a great two-way game that I think is really valuable in the NHL. He makes his linemates better, and while I'm not always the biggest fan of "two-way" or "all-around" players this high without a gamebreaking level of speed, Turcotte bucks that trend. He just seems to play the game the right way; hard on pucks, using teammates effectively, getting to the net, using skill to create space, and wins more puck battles than he loses. Turcotte is likely a year away, but being slotted in behind Jonathan Toews above Dylan Strome in 2020-21 is extremely enticing.

Brainsplanation: See above. The analytical case for Turcotte is extremely compelling, and part of me wants my brain to put Kirby Dach here based on what I've seen, but Chicago seems willing to sacrifice players with more flair to their game in favor of players with a more intelligent, responsible and simple streak to their game. Turcotte should be a fantastic and versatile centre who could be a great piece to add to a future that contains names like Barratt, Kurashev, and Nordgren.

#4 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Kirby Dach - C
Brain: Kirby Dach - C

Gutsplanation: With the options available here, I'm imagining Colorado with MacKinnon and Kirby Dach not far behind him. Dach is a great skater with a ton of skill for someone his size. His puck protection ability is excellent as well, and I think the case for a top-level goal scoring center is there in spades. My gut tells me that the potential 1/2 punch will be too tempting to pass up and the final piece from the Duchene trade will be in place.

Brainsplanation: While Dach's analytical profile isn't as enticing as Dylan Cozens, I believe the upside is higher for Dach at the next level. Cozens seems to get away with producing on the back of his size and strength, where Dach brings a speed and skill level that I haven't seen as much of out of Cozens. Cozens has better two-way play, but I'm always going to fall on the side of swinging on skill and speed in 2019, especially with a package as rare as Dach's.

#5 - Los Angeles Kings
Gut: Dylan Cozens - C
Brain: Bowen Byram - D

Gutsplanation: Cozens just seems like a perfect fit for the Kings. Playing behind Anze Kopitar is certainly a good place for him to learn how to play a 200-foot game, and it really seems like Kings hockey is based on possession and control rather than speed and skill. With other centres like Jarret Anderson-Dolan, Rasmus Kupari, Akil Thomas and hopefully Gabe Vilardi on the way, the future looks a lot brighter in LA with Cozens if they want to keep playing traditionally "Kings"-brand hockey.

Brainsplanation: Finally. A disagreement. If I'm the LA Kings, I'm a little bit more concerned with my ability to push pace in games, and I also am a bit concerned that I have one really notable defense prospect in Kale Clague. The Kings need a lot, and Byram is the only defender who can really hold a candle to the ridiculous 2018 crop of defenseman that went in the 1st round. If you need a defender here, Byram is your guy, and I'm pretty certain that he's one of the Top-5 players overall, so it isn't really much of a reach to go out and get him here. Tons of offensive involvement, and his defensive metrics came a long way over the year, pulling himself from a negative Cat% to a +75% since the World Juniors. Cozens may be more of the same, but Byram brings more upside and brings something in the way of speed and aggression to the game the Kings could really use.

#6 - Detroit Red Wings
Gut: Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain: Trevor Zegras - C/W

Gutsplanation: Detroit snagged Zadina, Berggren, and Veleno last year. Skill, skill, and skill. Zegras would be more of the same, and brings a level of puck skill you can never have enough of. Zegras has impressed me more and more over the year with his vision and passing ability. Similar to Turcotte, and not far behind him in raw talent, Zegras brings an agility to the game with a level of flair that not many else have. He can make any offensive-zone situations very dangerous very quickly, and even if he becomes a full time winger, the idea of him on a line with Mike Rasmussen parked in front of the net sounds very much not fun for opponents to counter.

Brainsplanation: Once again, no real disagreement between the brain and guts on this one. Zegras isn't far back from Turcotte, but I'm pretty confident that his upside as an offensive playmaker could make him a more exciting player for Red Wings fans to watch. Detroit seems to love swinging big on players like Zegras, and they've had no shortage of time to watch him play. After some time, he could be a really solid piece up front for the Red Wings.

#7 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Bowen Byram - D
Brain - Dylan Cozens - C

Gutsplanation: The defense group in Buffalo is still simply not good enough, even with Rasmus Dahlin, but Byram gives them a pure offensive weapon that could give the Sabres an excellent 1/2 punch to go along with a pretty deep group of young players at the forward position. Byram improved steadily over the year and improved greatly in his own end, but his best asset is his aggressiveness in the offensive zone and crossing the offensive blueline with the puck. He may be a little ways away, but Buffalo would do well to swing big at a position they could further improve on top of Dahlin.

Brainsplanation: With Byram gone at 5, I can see Buffalo going for a centre, and Cozens is likely the best all-around centre still available on paper to me. Cozens brings a ton in all areas of the ice and could slot in as a solid middle-six centre with Casey Mittelstadt behind Jack Eichel. Cozens gives Buffalo plenty of flexibility and the argument could be made that he gets a tryout period with the Sabres in sheltered minutes. You can never have too many centres, and the Sabres could use a bit more size down the middle down the line. Cozens gives them something they lost when they traded Ryan O'Reilly, and he could help solidify the depth in the lineup in both the near and far future.

#8 - Edmonton Oilers
Gut: Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain: Peyton Krebs - LW

Gutsplanation: In both cases, Dach and Cozens are off the board at this point. You never want to draft on need, but there's an argument to be had that the player with the highest upside is Peyton Krebs. A crafty playmaker with good puck skill on a very bad Kootenay Ice team, Krebs may quickly become a piece on the Oilers roster with names like Yamamoto, Bouchard, Benson and Marody to help get that team out of the basement and hopefully stay out of it. It's hard to pass up, even with Podkolzin still available in both cases. The Oilers need to improve, and they could use a pure winger with skill and scoring ability, which Krebs brings.

Brainsplanation: See above. It just feels like a match. Alex Newhook could be an interesting option, but he likely needs a longer development time, and the Oilers simply can't afford to be patient, and Krebs is certainly no slouch relative to Newhook.

#9 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Vasili Podkolzin - LW
Brain: Alex Newhook - C

Gutsplanation: Podkolzin and the Ducks seem like a match. They've got Max Jones and Maxime Comtois, and with the power, speed, skill, and tenacity that Podkolzin brings, the Ducks seem like a fit for Podkolzin. I find Podkolzin to be overrated by many, mostly due to his one-dimensional play and lack of production in leagues he should be dominating, but his ability to score goals and use his body positioning at high speed to get to high danger areas is certainly worthy of a pick at #9. He may be a few years away, but I feel that the rebuilding is only beginning in Anaheim and they can afford to be (and should be) somewhat patient with where their team is going.

Brainsplanation: Yes, I just said Podkolzin has every reason to go here, but my brain just can't pull the trigger when a multifaceted transition centre is on the board in Alex Newhook. I'm a big Newhook fan, and he'll need time to hone his shortcomings, but his skating, puckhandling ability, and offensive versatility are extremely good and bode very well for his future. He's the player that reminds me most of a B-level Jack Hughes in this draft, and if you want a centre who can get pucks up ice at high speeds, Newhook is a great option at #10.

#10 - Vancouver Canucks
Gut: Alex Newhook - C
Brain: Cole Caufield - C/LW

Gutsplanation: Vancouver seems to really like drafting skilled players high, with Hughes, Boeser, and Pettersson being their most recent 1st rounders. Vancouver surprised many this year, but I'm not sure they're going to add anyone who immediately would jump straight to the NHL reliably here, and playing the waiting game with Newhook could pay in spades down the line. Pettersson/Horvat/Newhook sounds pretty spooky to me come 2021 or so, and I would expect the Canucks to be more than familiar with him already as he's been in their backyard for two seasons now.

Brainsplanation: I think Cole Caufield is one of the most underrated players in the draft if not the most. Everyone keeps saying "Alex DeBrincat this, Alex DeBrincat that", but I frankly think Caufield brings more to the game than DeBrincat does. He has a speed, shiftiness, and puck control ability that DeBrincat doesn't, from what I've seen. He improved over the year, and while he has defensive shortcomings, that part of the game isn't the most important for a player like him. Caufield is a dangerous puck protector with a lightning quick shot an a penchant for getting to the net when he doesn't have the puck. I think he's right there with Vasili Podkolzin as the best player available at 10, but I don't think Vancouver is willing to wait for Podkolzin, and Caufield might be a one-and-done before putting on a Canucks jersey in a year's time.

#11 - Philadelphia Flyers
Gut: Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain: Vasili Podkolzin - LW

Gutsplanation: I've heard the Flyers need a scoring winger. Boldy at 11 is arguably the one that fits their perceived culture change best. There's a new regime in Philadelphia, and it sounds like they want to be the Big Bad Flyers again. That doesn't scream "Cole Caufield" to me, and Boldy just feels like a guy who would make a great flyer one day. He's a gritty, smart winger who wins plenty of puck battles and always seems to find space in the offensive zone. I'm not totally certain there's massive upside, but Boldy has a projectable game that suits the Philadelphia archetype best.

Brainsplanation: I highly doubt Podkolzin slips to 11, but he'd be certainly the guy I look at over Matt Boldy. I think the patience of letting him develop in Russia is something Philadelphia can afford to have. They won't be as bad as they were this year (one would hope), and Podkolzin at 11 would be a great pickup if nobody else decides to risk a high If Podkolzin can improve his team play, there could be a fantastic two-way weapon there that would be worth waiting for.

#12 - Minnesota Wild
Gut: Spencer Knight - G
Brain: Ryan Suzuki - C

Gutsplanation: The Wild under Paul Fenton went totally off the board last year taking Filip Johansson, who has not been great. They then selected Jack McBain who also has not been great. These two picks are heavy, big, "hockey men", and while Spencer Knight isn't that, the Wild's only goaltending prospect of note is Kappo Kahkonen, and while he has been a capable AHL goalie, I don't imagine he's seen to be a sure fire goaltender of the future. Spencer Knight just screams a "character hockey player" pick with tons of pedigree, and would fill a need that, if it works out, could be a rock solid foundation to rebuild the team around over the next few seasons. I don't think the Wild are set for success, so patience while Knight develops could make their lives much easier when it comes time to play a starting goaltender. Would I make this call? No. But the Wild love their U.S. program guys, the Wild love guys who have the right mindset for the game, and the Wild will certainly need goaltending in a few years. One thing that has struck me about Knight is just how calm he constantly is in net. I know nothing about developing goaltenders, and I certainly value goalies who stop more than 90% of shots with the 2019 US U-18 program in front of him, but I think Knight is a goaltender who exudes and radiates confidence, and I think that will take him quite a ways.

Brainsplanation: If I'm running the Wild, I would think the best pick here is a project I can let develop for a few years while I slowly reconstruct the NHL team. In terms of pure upside, Ryan Suzuki fits that mold really well. You can never have enough centres, and Suzuki brings a fantastic level of skill and speed to the position that I really like. Boldy would be my other option here, but I think there's just a higher ceiling in Suzuki's game, and usually ties go to the middle of the ice. Suzuki was part of an exclusive club crossing 100% Tot.Cat%, indicating the percentage increase in total goal differential relative to his teammates, and while his primary involvement lagged behind his total point involvement, his playing style lends itself to seeing that improve in the next year or two in the OHL. He may take time, but it's a swing I'd be willing to take here.

#13 - Florida Panthers
Gut: Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain: Arthur Kaliyev - RW

Gutsplanation: I literally just waxed poetic about Ryan Suzuki, but the Panthers have gone for huge skill at every 1st round pick since 2016. Suzuki is the biggest pure skill pick on the board here and while Arthur Kaliyev is on the board, I'm unsure Dale Tallon is one for skilled players who tend to not move around the ice with a certain level of "gusto". Suzuki certainly gets you out of your seat and as with the previous notes on him, ties usually go to the middle of the ice. Yes, they might need a defenseman, but that's an NHL team problem that can't be solved through the draft immediately. I would imagine every defender available around here is at least two years away from NHL contribution. If they want a defender, landing one through giving up this pick would be my route. You can also find good value in defenders later on in this draft, in my opinion.

Brainsplanation: On the other hand, Dale Tallon and others might be wrong and Arthur Kaliyev could be a disgusting teammate for a group consisting of Barkov, Huberdeau, Dadonov, Trocheck Tippett, and Borgstrom in 2020. I see a bit of Phil Kessel's brain in Kaliyev. I can see why he might drive some people nuts, but I think it's misguided and misses just how talented he is. His shot is excellent, and his intelligence in the offensive zone is such that he can identify open space quickly, get set up, and get a shot off before anyone figures out what he's up to. He capitalizes on the chances he gets and has a great scoring touch, be it off a shot of his own, or as a primary assist off a pass. Kaliyev trails only Bobby Brink in even strength primary involvement percentage with 31.2%, and is the only player in the entire CHL over 40%INV. Yes, his intensity level might need to come up if he's to find real NHL success, but on talent alone, there's an intelligent scoring forward who has a great set of skills to build on and he will be the only thing that holds him back.

#14 - Arizona Coyotes
Gut: Cam York - D
Brain: Matthew Boldy - LW

Gutsplanation: I feel like Cam York is misjudged by the hockey media. I don't see him as an offensive defenseman as much as a two-way pace-controlling defender who has the capability of jumping into a rush and participating offensively. He can quarterback a power play just fine, but his best assets are in how he can stifle rushes with his stick and calmly move pucks around the ice. You can't have enough defenders with that profile, if you ask me, and his mobility up the ice certainly can take him a long way. I think Arizona's analytics team would like to add a talent like York to build with, especially as their defense group ages. York may take time to develop his offensive tools, as well as refine his defensive positioning, but I think he'll be a useful piece down the line.

Brainsplanation: Simply put, Boldy is the best player available at 14 based on who's taken. The Coyotes have quite a few B-level scoring wingers, but Boldy slipping here would be a great chance to add someone with a lot of upside to become a smart, skilled power winger that I feel Rick Tocchet will really like working with so long as he's employed by the Coyotes. Boldy just seems to "get it" when he plays and seems to find himself earning and creating dangerous offensive chances. The defensive numbers could be better, but you can let him develop, keep improving the team, and hope that the Coyotes start the season on time in 2019-20.

#15 - Montreal Canadiens
Gut: Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain: Cam York - D

Gutsplanation: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Montreal kid going at 15 to Montreal, I know. While this may be convenient, it certainly would be quite the story. Montreal hasn't gone with a French 1st round pick Louis LeBlanc in 2009, but I feel that Lavoie has what it takes to be a solid Canadien. He's older for the draft class, and his production lags behind other QMJHL players such as Samuel Poulin and Jakob Pelletier, but Lavoie's size and pedigree might be something Montreal would want to swing on. A massive playoff performance also certainly helps. I think Lavoie could be a solid middle six forward with centre potential on a team that could use another centre down the line. My brain wouldn't put him this high, but Marc Bergevin is full of surprises, and with a team that barely missed the NHL, they might be looking for an older player that could step in for at least a tryout next year. Who knows, if they really want someone who can slot in, do they jump at the chance to get WHL standout Brett Leason? (probably not, but weeeee).

Brainsplanation: If they really wanted a French player, I'd probably look at Samuel Poulin first, but I think the Habs value players with solid responsible all-around play in both ends and are more than willing to pull talent from anywhere. Part of me thought Victor Soderstrom would be the guy here, but I think they really like how their recent American picks have developed, and with Cam York still available, York would bring a relatively responsible two way game to a backend that could use another good defense prospect. York is great in transition but will need to work on his play when pucks are hemmed in his own zone, and I think he'll learn how to play more than hard enough with the coaching staff and group of teammates the Canadiens have assembled for him when he's ready.

Final Things

I don't know what's going to happen on draft day, and things get wild and crazy between now and then anyways. I'm certainly curious about what's going to happen. Teams will jump to draft their guys, teams will take risks, teams will hit home runs, and teams will make blatant mistakes. All it takes is for a player to be #2 on a few teams lists in order to see yourself drop like a rock. It happened above for me with guys like Matt Boldy and Vasili Podkolzin, but it certainly isn't a death sentence for their careers. It's important to keep that in mind as a fan of this wonderful sport, and just enjoy the information presented. Be excited for the guys your team puts their faith in and hope that they handle their development well, because there's nothing better than seeing athletes follow and achieve their dreams, even if your team is run by insane people.

The rest of the picks in this mock draft will come after the Stanley Cup is awarded to whomever earns it, so stay tuned for that.

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Welcome to the Blog.

Tier 1 - I Just Like 'em a Bit More...

Tier 2 - A.K.A. Tier 1B

Tier 3 - The Rock Solids

Tier 4 - Big Time Maybes

Tier 5 - The Meat of the Draft

Tier 6 - Big Bois and Big Swings

Tier 7 - Whipping Cupcakes

Tier 8 - Really Digging Deep...

The Watchlist

Tier 1 - ​¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tier 2 - ...More Like Tier 1B

Tier 3 - One Small Step Down

Overall Thoughts

The Watchlist

Tier 8 - The Curious Cases

Tier 7 - The Potential Contributors

Tier 6 - Contributors and Big Swings

Tier 5 - Scorers and Upside

Tier 4- Potential Core Players

Tier 3 - Should-Be Core Players

Tier 2 - Top End Pieces

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

Overall Thoughts

Tier 1 - The Byfrenière Boys

Tier 2 - The Also-Very-Good Ones

Tier 3 - The Dartboard

Tier 4 - The Bigger Dartboard

Tier 5 - The Larry Davids

Tier 6 - The L8ter Boys

The Watchlist

Final Notes

Overvalued

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert RaidersNHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67sNHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor SpitfiresNHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Undervalued

Dylan Holloway - F - University of WisconsinNHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Joni JurmoNHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

​Closing Thoughts

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeSKey Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeSKey Name - Moritz Seider (D)

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeSKey Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeSKey Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS​Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeSKey Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeSKey Name - The Defense (D)

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeSKey Name - Jan Jeník (W)

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeSKey Name - Cole Caufield (W)

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeSKey Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

Closing Thoughts

Tier 1 - Lafrenière v. Byfield

Tier 2 - The Very Good Ones

Tier 3 - Could Be Great, or Nothing.

Tier 4 - The Real Question Marks

Tier 5 - "I Dunno, Maybe?"

Honourable Mentions

Closing Thoughts

Tier I - Hughes v. Kakko

Tier II

Tier III

Tier IV

Tier V

The "Who Knows" Watchlist

Final Thoughts

The Recap

#16 - Colorado AvalancheGut: Cole Caufield - RW​Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

#17 - Vegas Golden KnightsGut: Tobias Björnfot - D​Brain: Ville Heinola - D

#18 - Dallas StarsGut: Ville Heinola - D​Brain: Connor McMichael - C

#19 - Ottawa SenatorsGut: Moritz Seider - D​Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

#20 - New York RangersGut: Philip Broberg - D​Brain: Moritz Seider - D

#21 - Pittsburgh PenguinsGut: Bobby Brink - RW​Brain: Victor Söderström - D

#22 - LA KingsGut: Thomas Harley - D​Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

#23 - New York IslandersGut: Philip Tomasino - C​Brain: Philip Broberg - D

#24 - Nashville PredatorsGut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW​Brain: ​Jakob Pelletier - LW

#25 - Washington CapitalsGut: Victor Söderström - D​Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

#26 - Calgary FlamesGut: Nicholas Robertson - LW​Brain: Thomas Harley - D

#27 - Tampa Bay LightningGut: Connor McMichael - C​Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

#28 - Carolina HurricanesGut: Jakob Pelletier - LW​Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

Tier 1 - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Kaiden Guhle - D - Prince Albert Raiders
NHL Rank - 7NA / Scouching Rank - 55

Jack Quinn - RW - Ottawa 67s
NHL Rank - NA9 / Scouching Rank - 51

Will Cuylle - LW - Windsor Spitfires
NHL Rank - 21NA / Scouching Rank - 87

Dylan Holloway - F - University of Wisconsin
NHL Rank - 10NA / Scouching Rank - 11

Kasper Simontaival - RW - Tappara U20
NHL Rank - 36EU / Scouching Rank - 23

Joni Jurmo
NHL Rank - 43EU / Scouching Rank - 39

Closing Thoughts

#10 - Kazakhstan - 4.63NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Musorov (F)

#9 - Germany - 8.83NHLeS
Key Name - Moritz Seider (D)

#8 - Switzerland - 9.74NHLeS
Key Name - Luca Hollenstein (G)

#7 - Slovakia - 9.96NHLeS
Key Name - Maxim Cajkovic (RW)

#6 - Finland - 12.02 NHLeS
Key Name - Justus Annunen (G)

#5 - Russia - 13.61NHLeS
Key Name - Grigori Denisenko (LW)

#4 - Sweden - 14.46NHLeS
Key Name - The Defense (D)

#3 - Czechia - 17.34NHLeS
Key Name - Jan Jeník (W)

#2 - United States - 19.69NHLeS
Key Name - Cole Caufield (W)

#1 - Canada - 23.22NHLeS
Key Name - Barrett Hayton (C)

#16 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Cole Caufield - RW
Brain: Bobby Brink - RW

#17 - Vegas Golden Knights
Gut: Tobias Björnfot - D
Brain: Ville Heinola - D

#18 - Dallas Stars
Gut: Ville Heinola - D
Brain: Connor McMichael - C

#19 - Ottawa Senators
Gut: Moritz Seider - D
Brain: Tobias Björnfot - D

#20 - New York Rangers
Gut: Philip Broberg - D
Brain: Moritz Seider - D

#21 - Pittsburgh Penguins
Gut: Bobby Brink - RW
Brain: Victor Söderström - D

#22 - LA Kings
Gut: Thomas Harley - D
Brain: Philip Tomasino - C

#23 - New York Islanders
Gut: Philip Tomasino - C
Brain: Philip Broberg - D

#24 - Nashville Predators
Gut: Arthur Kaliyev - LW
Brain: Jakob Pelletier - LW

#25 - Washington Capitals
Gut: Victor Söderström - D
Brain: Nicholas Robertson - LW

#26 - Calgary Flames
Gut: Nicholas Robertson - LW
Brain: Thomas Harley - D

#27 - Tampa Bay Lightning
Gut: Connor McMichael - C
Brain: Samuel Poulin - LW

#28 - Carolina Hurricanes
Gut: Jakob Pelletier - LW
Brain: Nils Höglander - LW

#29 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Nils Höglander - LW
Brain: Jamieson Rees - C

#30 - Boston Bruins
Gut: Jamieson Rees - C
Brain: Albin Grewe - C/RW

#31 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Ryan Johnson - D
Brain: Spencer Knight - G

#1 - New Jersey Devils
Gut: Jack Hughes - C
Brain: Jack Hughes - C

#2 - New York Rangers
Gut: Kaapo Kakko - RW
Brain: Kaapo Kakko - RW

#3 - Chicago Blackhawks
Gut: Alex Turcotte - C
Brain: Alex Turcotte - C

#4 - Colorado Avalanche
Gut: Kirby Dach - C
Brain: Kirby Dach - C

#5 - Los Angeles Kings
Gut: Dylan Cozens - C
Brain: Bowen Byram - D

#6 - Detroit Red Wings
Gut: Trevor Zegras - C/W
Brain: Trevor Zegras - C/W

#7 - Buffalo Sabres
Gut: Bowen Byram - D
Brain - Dylan Cozens - C

#8 - Edmonton Oilers
Gut: Peyton Krebs - LW
Brain: Peyton Krebs - LW

#9 - Anaheim Ducks
Gut: Vasili Podkolzin - LW
Brain: Alex Newhook - C

#10 - Vancouver Canucks
Gut: Alex Newhook - C
Brain: Cole Caufield - C/LW

#11 - Philadelphia Flyers
Gut: Matthew Boldy - LW
Brain: Vasili Podkolzin - LW

#12 - Minnesota Wild
Gut: Spencer Knight - G
Brain: Ryan Suzuki - C

#13 - Florida Panthers
Gut: Ryan Suzuki - C
Brain: Arthur Kaliyev - RW

#14 - Arizona Coyotes
Gut: Cam York - D
Brain: Matthew Boldy - LW

#15 - Montreal Canadiens
Gut: Raphaël Lavoie - C/RW
Brain: Cam York - D