Scouching’s Preliminary 2024 NHL Draft Rankings
It’s that time of the year again. The NHL season is past its midway point, some fanbases are elated, some are pleasantly surprised, some are taking things day by day, some are digging themselves into a pit of despair, and those fans are welcoming others more and more into their pit of despair as the weeks go on. I’ve been hard at work as usual, with over 300 individual performances tracked of 2024 NHL Draft prospects and am finally ready to share some of my thoughts and findings.
On the whole, this draft is proving to be highly curious. There is a lot of very good, but likely not world-changing talent at the top, and in my view there is a huge group of “maybe could be neat” players, many of whom are either quite raw, featuring great tools with so-so application in many spots, or others who excel in a handful of areas and seem to struggle in others. Seriously, right down to around 50 on my list, there are huge swaths of players where if people questioned me on why a player is at 45, and why not somewhere closer to 25, there could be a reasonable discussion had. I have my biases and preferences, and I know what I’m looking for in a player, but if priorities and development expectations are different in another person, things can get murky real quick. In terms of real depth, I get the feeling that this draft drops off relatively quickly. While I don’t like categorizing drafts as “good” or “bad” before they even happen, I do tend to notice how often I’m watching players and having more or fewer “oh wow” moments, and this year there seems to be far less than prior years. I will say though that I think there are many interesting players here, and drafting for volume could be rewarding, even in the mid-late rounds where some interesting bets could slip to.
On that note, I always preface my rankings with a quick explanation of what I look for in players, and why my rankings may look quite different to others. While I track data while watching games, it isn’t my main focus when reflecting and ordering/tiering players. It’s a nice reference manual like the financial metrics of a stock on the market. Can’t be successful without it, but won’t be truly successful relying solely on it. What it does do is isolate where players are effective and not effective, and how it can factor into the performance traits I’m looking for. It’s the backbone of an unwritten story, and it’s up to me to put meat on those bones. In short, the NHL is fast. It’s physical. Things happen real fast, and players need to think quickly, react quickly, move quickly, plan ahead, think creatively, and play hard hockey. I largely set aside size in my evaluation. It is a factor, but it creates limitations on either end of the spectrum. Smaller players have a much higher bar for how intense, skilled, and quick they need in conjunction to be to make things work. Larger players have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to “growing into their bodies”, but they still need to be quick enough to play with high end physical play at the NHL level, and evasive enough to be at least a good possession player with the puck. Just being big doesn’t mean anything, just like being small and scoring points doesn’t always mean anything with regards to projecting to the NHL. You’ll also probably notice why I may not have some names ranked that others do, and it’s really just because when I watch these players, I find it difficult to have enough to say that I get really get excited about. When doing a cross-section of everyone, some players don’t necessarily have what I’m looking for, and I’m personally not a fan of putting names on my list just because others are doing it. If I don’t see an NHL role doing what they do best at their level at 17, or I can’t see how they could be applied differently as they are, it feels dishonest to place them just to avoid future criticism if things don’t go my way. I’ve been wrong about players quite a few times before, but at the end of the day when it comes to making a pick on draft day, I want to be excited about a player and know exactly what I’m getting and how they’ll fit into an NHL system and play at an NHL level one day.
So I hope that prepares you all for what’s below and helps you see things a bit from my perspective. I do my rankings in tiers, but this year I’ll be providing some boiled down text analysis derived from my tracked data, and a quick writeup of every player in my first round, with general points for the later tiers and The Watchlist. One last thing, the positions are listed as positions which I have seen the players play, and defenders are indicated by their shot handedness (R and LHD) and/or the side of the ice they play on if opposite to their handedness (R and LSD). Enjoy!
Tier 1 - My Three Amigos
1) Macklin Celebrini - C - Boston University (NCAA)
Celebrini may not be a Connor Bedard, Connor McDavid, or Auston Matthews-level player, but what he is is a highly talented centre with projectable smarts and excellent offensive tools. Maybe a bit of a mirror of what I remember of Matty Beniers? He piles on the points by being a hound on the puck in the offensive zone, rarely taking low percentage chances, pushing into dangerous space with the puck, following up to challenge defenders, and using great turns on his edges to get into space at speed and create secondary chances. He reads play well, even if he may lack pure speed and physical tools, but he puts himself in good position and forechecks intelligently, creating quick turnovers and is among the better players tracked at generating offensive zone turnovers. There’s a lethal shot here that he uses well, he skates hard with a great combination of power, confidence and evasion, and while it’s difficult at the moment to see what he’ll do better than anyone in the NHL, it’s not difficult to see how he will be a highly effective offensive leaning centre with a very projectable game to the NHL.
2) Berkly Catton - C - Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
If there were an award for biggest brain in the draft, it may very well go to Catton. Spokane would be nowhere near where they are without Catton and his ridiculous 48% involvement in team offense. As shown above, both the data and my eyeballs are certain that this guy is a transition and playmaking master, with a dynamic pace to his game, remarkable processing and practicality to his talent, and bringing his strong hockey mind to his off-puck side as a smart, and highly effective forechecker. I see a great future for Catton, especially if he can get a bit more explosive to create separation on the rush but this is a player that plays to his strengths with awareness of his limitations, tricking, baiting and delaying opponents into knots. Many times it’s looked like Catton is tossing pucks to nobody, only to have the pass set perfectly to a trailing forward or secondary shooting option for an unexpected scoring chance. He just does smart things all over the ice, and I could easily see a world where he, Lindstrom, and perhaps even Celebrini are all highly effective NHL players in their own ways. Lindstrom brings exceptional tools and a great physical package, but Catton brings a puppeteer-like ability to the game that I would be surprised if it didn’t translate to the NHL.
3) Cayden Lindstrom - C/RW - Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Watching the Hlinka Gretzky cup this year, I was constantly impressed by two of the forwards getting some of the least amount of ice time in Liam Greentree and this guy. Cayden Lindstrom has steadily climbed up my board this year and seems to be one of the most exciting packages of a hockey player I’ve seen in a while. Standing 6’4” and playing centre every game I’ve seen of him, he brings exceptional straight line speed and power to the game, with sublime skill and a prime quality shot. He’s physically resilient with his body positioning and his skating ability, and while he has scored significantly more than he’s assisted this year, there are clear signs of playmaking potential with refinements to his game. He can overthink the game at times, skate into much more than anyone could handle, even him, and can break possession with some questionable pass decisions, but far more often than not I’ve found him to be one of the most exciting and intriguing prospects available this year. He may not end the year this high on my list, but he won’t be far back if at all. I’ve had moments where I felt he was the most interesting and potentially high impact player available, and expanded the top tier to include him. The full package is there, and with the right guidance and development, he could be an offensive monster in the NHL with a physical edge.
Tier 2 - A Smattering of Potentially Very Good Options
4) Ivan Demidov - LW/RW - SKA St. Petersburg (Russia)
It is entirely possible that Demidov actually gets drafted significantly lower than where I have him ranked. If you want a player with some incredible tools, and some major areas of improvement that limit his projectability, look no further than Ivan Demidov. Some shifts, you think he’s the best player in the draft, and would’ve pushed last year’s top few players, and other shifts you want to throw your computer in the garbage, fly to St. Petersburg and tell him to chill in person. The skill level and offensive tools are undeniable. He’s like a shark around the perimeter of the offensive zone, searching for and opening seams all over the place, ruthlessly attacking the net over and over and over again. On the other hand, for every seam he opens, he often waits and waits and waits until the seam closes and he starts all over again. At higher levels, this, in combination with his real lack of separation speed and strength has rendered him significantly less effective. His MHL play has been dominant for certain, but for a player like this, that should be the bare minimum. The talent, creativity and skill are almost overcooked with Demidov. To some, that’s a bad thing and hard to fix. For me, it’s something I’d much rather bet on him sorting out than not. I would love to see him play more at the professional level in the VHL, or loaned out to one of SKA’s de facto farm clubs to play minutes in the KHL just to see if he can adapt to and work through the issues. He’s a player where I’ve seen almost nothing out of him for a period, and he pops for three points in 10 minutes and controls the puck a ridiculous amount for the rest of the game. He can shoot it into shin pads from the next town over, he can overhandle pucks longer than David Blaine can hold his breath, and he can be a in and out without the puck from time to time, but holy crap does he ever look good doing it. He’s a long term bet, and you have to be sure that he’s going to be receptive to direction and discipline without losing that skill and creativity. He’s a major wild card, but I adore him and refuse to believe that a few years of development would do nothing but great things for Demidov.
5) Adam Jiricek - LHD - HC Plzen (Czechia)
Adam Jiricek has been a player who I have no idea what to do with at this point. His season came to an end after a brutal looking knee injury at the World Juniors. His play at the Czech professional level has often been a struggle, having trouble shaking off forecheckers, hitting targets with his passing in transition, and being as physically punishing as his brother could be at times. On the plus side though, Jiricek’s mobility is elite, and there have been flashes of excellent skill that give hints of a strong stick-first defending player who can create space and quarterback transitions with his passing. It hasn’t really been there this season as much as I had hoped, but you can still see the signs, especially when you see him play internationally. I’m hoping the knee injury doesn’t sidetrack his career too much, just like his brother at the same age. If he’s a guy that plummets down the board, he could be a high risk, but high defensive upside pick. I remain a fan, but he’s been a frustrating player this season.
6) Zeev Buium - LHD - University of Denver (NCAA)
While this season is touted as much heavier on defenders, and it certainly has it’s share of curious and talented profiles, stability, all-around effectiveness and dependability are in more short order. Other defenders may have better straight line speed or push themselves offensively more, but nobody is as well-rounded as Buium in my view. The mobility is top notch, the skill may not be elite but it’s applied extremely well, his gap control and defensive management are excellent, and his ability to take care of the puck and move it effectively are all major bright spots. I wasn’t surprised to see him crack that all-time USA junior team, let alone show as well as he did at that level. Smart, effective defending with plenty of talent to sink your teeth into as the NHL approaches, Buium has just climbed my board all year after being very impressed with his season last year with the NTDP. The production from Buium is a little bit power play heavy, but points and defenders aren’t the most important combination to me. The other stuff is where he shines, and it enables him to play more in the offensive zone and help transport the puck there extremely well.
7) Michael Brandsegg-Nygård - RW - Mora IK (HockeyAllsvenskan)
It’s pretty easy to see how Michael Brandsegg-Nygård would project into an NHL lineup. In normal seasons, a player like this might be ranked a bit lower, but his energy, forechecking ability, and flashes of skill are hard to ignore. The motor never stops, and he’s looked very effective against men at a solid level in Sweden. Part of a talented Norwegian trio with Noah Steen and Petter Vesterheim, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård is likely to be a great compliment to players with more finesse, but don’t sleep on his ability to maintain possession of the puck and get to the net for scoring chances. Generating speed and controlling pucks in transition are a bit of a work in progress, but he plays to his strengths and has shown a very dependable and intense style of play that should have no problem filling a variety of roles in the NHL in both the regular season and the playoffs. Big, heavy, high pace power goes a long way these days and Michael Brandsegg-Nygård brings plenty of it.
8) Nikita Artamonov - LW - Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod (KHL)
Over the year, I’ve kept moving players down the board, and every time I’ve seen Artamonov, he’s the guy I’m always moving up. At the end of the day, he has surprisingly landed himself in the top 10. In my conversations with a handful of NHL scouts, I know I’m not the only one. Frankly I’m even surprised about it, but when going back to check myself before I wreck myself, Artamonov just continues to impress me, showing no reason to be dropped down the board. He’s one of those players who just seems to “get it”. Almost every puck touch on every shift is handled intelligently, constantly moving play forwards, playing selfless hockey, and keeping things simple in the best way. He reads play extremely well, constantly finding space off the puck and making himself a great pass option, and always seems to have a plan. The footspeed and finishing ability are still a bit of a question mark, but this is a player who will elevate other players and to me that’s always valuable. The fact that he’s doing all of this in the KHL with solid minutes just adds more to the equation in his favor.
9) Artyom Levshunov - Michigan St. University (NCAA)
This draft is marked by players that are equal parts talented and completely dumbfounding. Levshunov to me is the first name I would vote for to put on the Mount Rushmore of this draft consisting of those players. He’s big, can really get moving in a straight line, and is absolutely not afraid of pushing for offense. He loses physical battles more often than I’d like, his rush defense is not great, his mobility and pivoting ability aren’t gregat off-puck either. That said, he pushes into the offensive zone all the time, looking to chip in offensively and funnel pucks to the front of the net. He’s a smart short-range passer as well, finding ways to get pucks off the boards and through feet getting pucks up the ice. He’s another major wild card, and there are a wide range of outcomes for him, but I don’t think he won’t be an NHL defender. His development and how he’s coached will be imperative. He could end up higher on my board by the end of the year, but for now I remain a bit more tepid than the rest of the market due to the uncertainty baked into his style of play and ability.
10) Andrew Basha - LW - Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Basha has a strong case for being even higher by the end of the year. There is absolutely sublime skill, high pace, and an ability to combine both at an extremely high level. He may not bring a ton of value in his own end, but I could not care less. He is an offensive zone menace, creating turnovers and reading play well, capable of an accurate shot and surgical playmaking. He may lack raw power to his shot, and he may not be the strongest guy, but he has plenty of speed, intensity, skill and creativity to overcome those weaknesses and become an excellent offensive NHL player. My last viewing of him was a 3 point effort but he could’ve easily had 5 or 6 with all the plays he was creating and a few close calls in the crease of the offensive zone. He’s one of the most fun to watch players in the entire class and should be a great add for a team looking for skill and pace.
Tier 3 - High Potential Toolsy Boys
11) Cole Eiserman - LW - U.S. National U18 Team (NTDP)
Ah Cole Eiserman… Is he going to be an NHL player? Almost certainly. Is he going to score goals? Almost certainly, especially on a power play. The shot is undeniably elite. The rest of the package is a bit of a work in progress at the least. I won’t use the word lazy, because I despise that word and he most definitely is not, he’s active and fluid on his feet, but his ability to find space, read breakouts, make himself a target, find other targets with the puck, and reliably get himself to better scoring areas are all troublesome. His shot is lethal from anywhere, but I’ve seen this story in at least one elite level player almost every year I’ve done this work. Shooters need to bring other stuff to the game to be used enough to get their shots off in the NHL enough to score the goals they can score. Eiserman does have a promising future looking at his talent profile, but he is a frustrating watch at current time. He’s physical, and the shot is wonderful, but in the games I’ve tracked, he struggles to find the chance to use that shot at 5v5, and if he isn’t shooting, he’s a far less effective player. He may not go this late, but he also could be a guy who slips closer to the draft. I really have no idea. In my work, I will always value players who have multiple traits that could be NHL-difference makers, which right now I don’t see with Eiserman, moving him down the list, but that shot is really something.
12) Alfons Freij - RSD - Växjö Lakers HC J20 (J20 Nationell)
So we get to the first out of nowhere name on the board in Alfons Freij. Watching him and Leo Sahlin Wallenius last year, I was constantly drawn to Freij more, and I remain that way. Freij is supremely skilled, baiting defenders and opening passing lanes, being an extremely effective transition quarterback and selfless possession monster. He does have some trouble at times on defensive rushes if his feet and stick fail him, and he isn’t the most physical player, but there is so much to work with here. The feet, how he uses them, the vision, and the reliability are undeniable. He’s one of the best puck movers in the draft, and if it weren’t for his shortcomings in his own end, he’d be right up there with a player like Zeev Buium.
13) Anton Silayev - RSD - Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod (KHL)
Another absolute wild card that I have no idea what to do with in Anton Silayev. Some games I’ve seen of him, he’s awful. Some games I’ve seen, he looks strong, stable, and effective. He has certainly improved this season from where he was in August/September, but remains a massive work in progress. He towers over the rest of the KHL at 6’7”, and skates like a player 7 inches shorter, which is an excellent combination to work with. His skill level is developing but still very clunky, his reliability passing pucks is also clunky, leading to far too many neutral zone turnovers and defensive zone giveaways, and he needs more strength on his gigantic frame to win more physical battles than he does. He could easily be higher on my board, but to me there is far too much uncertainty for him to become a truly elite NHL defender for me to place him in the top 10. He’s an unfinished product who don’t believe projects offensively as well as his player cards may indicate, but the potential and package are tantalizing and should project just fine to the NHL. The question remains about exactly what his role will be and how effective he’ll be in the areas that are currently weaknesses for him.
14) Trevor Connelly - LW - Tri-City Storm (USHL)
I’ve had a tough time with Connelly this year, but there are flashes of good moments with him. The power and skill level are certainly high end, but I just haven’t seen as much of a projectable offensive creator as his numbers may indicate. He is indeed highly effective in transition going both directions, and he doesn’t have the best group around him, so signs are bright for improvement. On the note of transitions, he’s been a core part of 60% of Tri-City’s transitions with him on the ice in my tracking, which is almost impossible to sustain, but impressive at this point of the season, and he maintains control at a high rate. He’s also trying to at least funnel pucks to the scoring areas, but his rate of completion remains extremely low. His international performances have been excellent with highlight reel plays all over the place as well. He’s an interesting package to let develop in the NCAA with some other skilled, recruits in John Mustard and Logan Sawyer among others, I just am still sussing him out a little bit. He likely doesn’t drop from here, but there’s potential for me to put him higher.
15) Sam Dickinson - RSD/LHD - London Knights (OHL)
Finally we get to the OHL, and Sam Dickinson is a really tough one for me. Dickinson is a player who is fluid on his feet, generates speed in a straight line well, and has moments with strong offensive instincts to create for linemates and shoot from scoring areas. On the other hand, he is a highly frustrating passer, making questionable decisions often, not reading ice well or mucking it up successfully in his own end. He’s a laid back rush defender and can be beat by more agile, high pace skaters, and I see a wide range of outcomes for Dickinson. Awareness and possession are highly important in the NHL and I feel as though Dickinson has more of a ways to go than others this year. There are moments of promise and talent, especially in the offensive zone, but I’ve found myself wanting quite a lot more out of him after every game. Good puck transporter in a straight line on his feet, good shooter and gets pucks to scoring areas, but the rest of the very important equation is questionable.
16) Luke Misa - LW - Mississauga Steelheads (WHL)
I’ve seen an incredible amount of difference in opinion with Luke Misa, but in my view, the potential is enormous, even if he can be a bit frustrating at times. The effort level, the skill, the vision and creativity is all there. Lots of echoes to Andrew Basha here, but scaled down a bit. He’s an excellent forechecker, causing plenty of turnovers and creating a tremendous amount of offense for his line. Porter Martone wouldn’t be on pace for 50 goals without him, and Misa will likely only be limited by how much stronger he can get without losing the pace and skill he naturally has. Misa can be a player that vanishes at times, but I think that’s only noticed so much because he’s so impactful so often that the quieter moments stick out. There’s a ton of potential for Misa and can’t wait to see where his career goes. He could be a great upside pick later, or a team could take the plunge around this spot and hopefully come out with one of the most creative offensive puck hounds in this class.
17) Liam Greentree - RW - Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
God I want Liam Greentree to be a thing. In a more limited role at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup this year, I felt that he outperformed names ahead of him and have been thrilled to see him do what he’s done to this point. I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that the Windsor Spitfires are the worst team in the OHL with some of the most lopsided losses seen in a while for a team that isn’t the Niagara IceDogs. On pace for a goal differential beyond -100, Greentree is now captain of a team that is certainly at or near rock bottom. That said, he’s on pace for 99 points and to pass 40 goals, and he most definitely is not a passenger doing so. If Greentree’s agility and skating in general on both sides of the puck were a step or two or three or four better than where they are now, he would almost certainly be among the top picks in the draft for me. He is exceptionally skilled and confident, challenging players with directional changes and manipulation, and for a guy on a team so awful, you certainly wouldn’t know it from his tracked data. No matter which way you slice it, he shows exceptional promise. Reflecting on this list he should certainly be higher than he is, but the skating and quickness are certainly major points to improve. Even so, he’s managing to land points on 44% of Windsor’s goals, with only Berkly Catton and Macklin Celebrini crossing 40% at this range of the draft or higher. He’s creative, pulls pucks around pressure, plans his route of attack well, and brings one of the most intriguing combinations of talent I’ve seen in a while.
18) Emil Hemming - RW - TPS (Liiga)
It may surprise folks to see Hemming as my top rated Finn, but I felt the World Juniors showed a lot of the reasons why. We’ll get to Konsta Helenius later, but Hemming seems like the guy you pick if you wanted Michael Brandsegg-Nygård and missed out. A higher pace, higher skill winger with size who may not be an enormous play driver, but brings an energetic, physical style of play. He may not be an extremely high end pure offensive talent, but you definitely see flashes of creativity and evasive play. He’s a little rough around the edges that prevent him from being a high end prospect this season, but I could easily see him complimenting skilled players that lean a little more offensively in the NHL one day, even if it’s in more of a middle six role with penalty kill upside. He rarely overthinks the game with the puck, reads, anticipates and challenges the puck well without it, and while the high upside isn’t necessarily apparent right this second, there are signs of improvement there as well. I’ll be curious to see how his back half has gone, but stashing him in Finland for a few years to see how his game develops could be an interesting swing to take in the back half of this year’s first round.
19) Igor Chernyshov - LW - Dynamo Moscow (Russia)
Igor Chernyshov is one that is really up and down on this list. He’s bounced around levels in Russia, and really strikes me as someone similar to all of those USA NTDP players over the last few years who may not bring a ton of defensive value that can really affect outputs when on the ice, but when they get the puck secured in the offensive zone, or have moments in space to make a play to generate offense, Chernyshov can be a pretty lethal weapon. He’s not the quickest player, but he’s confident with his skill, protective pucks well and creating passing lanes and playing a simple but effective offensive game. I’ve spotted him being effective with his body positioning, easily outmuscling much worse MHL talent and winning loose puck races, and even bringing that resilience to the KHL in spots. The issue with Chernyshov is that I don’t know how much of his game that he’s successful at in Russia projects to as high a level in North America. He’s skilled, but not a higher pace player with that skill. He’s not a poor skater, but doesn’t really have projectable separation speed and his skill is often at it’s best when he’s deking defenders standing still rather than in motion. He can score goals with his effective "just go to the net and stuff will happen” approach, but his shot release in stride and from open ice is hit or miss relative to those ahead of him here. I’m not sure he’d be available where I’d be comfortable picking him if the draft were tomorrow, but he’s another one of these players where I wonder why he’s in my first round, and a couple plays he makes during a game change my mind and wonder what he looks like in 4-5 years a la Danila Yurov from a few years back.
20) Sacha Boisvert - C - Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
Similar to Chernyshov, I’ve gone back and forth on Sacha Boisvert all season, but I always am curious about the potential in his style of play. He brings a relatively simple but fundamentally sound flow to the game, tracking play well, finding space, challenging puck carriers defensively, causing turnovers and driving play in many metrics very well. He’s a skilled, relatively quick bigger centre which is always tantalizing for an NHL team, making moves in transition to get through defensive pressure and get into scoring areas. He has trouble finding space with the puck to spot and find linemates in the offensive zone, but grinding play along the boards to get pucks into scoring areas seems to be a strength I’ve seen a few times here and there. I wouldn’t categorize him as a pure goal scorer and I think there is potential for more, I just want to see him get a bit more fluid and controlled with puck possession, upping his skill level a bit to become a bit more dynamic, especially in the offensive zone, but this is a guy who checks darn near every box datawise and shows a ton of potential, especially in the offensive direction. More development to his skating stride, and edges should make him a better defensive transition threat, but his mind for the game and sense of timing helps here significantly. He was much higher on my board earlier in the year, but not because he’s performed poorly. This whole range is extremely close and he really rides the line from tier 2 and 3.
21) Tij Iginla - LW - Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
Tij Iginla has been a tough one this year. The guy has that dawg in him, that’s for sure. He plays like the son of an NHLer that had the heart of a guy like Jarome Iginla, so that checks out right there. Iginla is a player who seems to be a much more interesting playmaker and passer than he is a goal scorer as his production may indicate, but it’s been so difficult to tell what he really is because Kelowna just hasn’t been particularly great at moving the puck with him on the ice. Lots of metrics are at a low per 60 rate in my data, but that’s because Kelowna just hasn’t had the puck much. Iginla is a prime transition target, and highly effective at it, carrying and pucks extremely well, and shows a ton of success stick checking off-puck as well. Similar to Emil Hemming, this is a player who I think could complement some skilled players extremely well, but this is a guy who does bring some skill to the table himself. He’s a solid shooting talent, but the work rate and vision will take him a long ways as a 200 foot energy player. He could end up much higher on my board by the end of the year, but it’s been hard to get a gauge on just how effective he is because circumstances around him haven’t been great. He’s responsible for taking or setting up 47% of Kelowna’s shot attempts while on the ice, he’s all over the ice without the puck in a good way, but the actual possession numbers and offensive threat levels remain limited.
Tier 4 - The Dam Bursts
22) Zayne Parekh - RHD - Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Hooooooo boy. I’ve been watching Zayne Parekh in some way for some reason since his final AAA season. I remember loving what he was capable of at the time while volunteering for an OHL club in the shadows, but internal discussions shed some light on why he slipped in the OHL draft somewhat, even if he was one of the most skilled offensive leaning defenders in the province. Over my years of doing this work, there have been point-farming defenders drafted high. They score and score and score and score, even through the AHL, and when they hit the NHL, things come to a screeching halt and they end up in and out of the lineup. Think Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean, Ryan Murphy, Ryan Merkley, Ty Smith, etc. Sure, there are some others who score a ton and work like Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, Quinn Hughes and others, but it doesn’t take long to see the differences between these brands of players. In the NHL, this latter group are absolutely top notch, elite skaters in the league with top notch elite level skill that they can use in conjunction, and also are capable of using those skills without the puck to create turnovers quickly and get play going in the right direction. Defenders who aren’t elite in those traits who also turn off the taps without the puck and chase offense as often as they can are players who seem to be the ones who struggle. I have most definitely struggled to see a well-rounded NHL defender in Parekh so far this season. He is at his best when given the puck in the offensive zone where he can throw it on net low for rebound generation, or take a few steps, make a move and shoot from threatening areas. His ability to move the puck himself appear to me to be good enough to be successful in the OHL, but the amount of time it takes to get the puck up the ice and make decisions, coupled with the level of confidence he has doesn’t feel like a great combination long term. He started much higher on my board but every viewing has dropped him. His defensive game in transition and in his own end has been bordering on non-existent, and to me in this range you’ve drafting him to bet that he’s a Shayne Goestisbehere/Tony DeAngelo type who you cannot stand in his own end, but can patrol a PP from the blueline and be a rover at 5v5 played with his polar opposite-type of defender. It’s entirely possible that I simply haven’t seen the right performances to see what I’m not seeing, but Parekh has struck me as a player who fans will wonder why they were drafted so late, score a trillion points in the OHL reinforcing those thoughts, only to have trouble getting NHL minutes when many coaches expect dependability from their defensemen.
23) Topias Hynninen - LW/C - Jukurit (Liiga)
Wait a tick, that’s not Konsta Helenius… I must must be sipping the liquids under the sink again, but hear me out. If you could could combine Hynninen and Helenius, I think you’d have a tremendous player. Hynninen absolutely has his issues. He’s small, he’s frustrating with his decision making and how long he can delay his play. He shoots from the perimeter a bit too much at inopportune times, and he isn’t the strongest player out there, but this guy has serious energy. He’s one of the most involved players in transition going both directions of all forwards, sitting 15th in total zone transitions. He has a higher rate of shot assists than Helenius, I feel as though he carries his pace better and follows play going both directions better than Helenius. The strength deficiency allows a bit too many players through his defending, but he never backs down. His play in Mestis showcased more offensive tools, but that obviously needs to come out more in Liiga. He creates a comparable share of shot attempts on the ice as Helenius, passes the puck more, completes more of his slot passes, drives offensive transitions just as well and just as often, and could be had quite a few rounds after Helenius goes off the board. Hynninen gives me echos of Roni Hirvonen with many aspects of his game, and with some time in Finland to earn more minutes and gain more confidence against pros, I think there’s an interesting energy player that can be a great transition conduit down the road with Hynninen.
24) Daniil Ustinkov - LHD - ZSC Lions Zurich (National League)
The list of solid defensive leaning defenders this year seems to be quite short, at least at the high end of the draft, but Ustinkov has been a guy I’ve been keeping a keen eye on for a year since seeing him with the Swiss U18 team last year. Ustinkov isn’t huge, but he’s filled out nicely for his size, is highly mobile, reads play to position himself well, and took almost 20 minutes of ice time to miss on a pass. Were they risky stretch passes up the ice? No, but he’s been in the National League every game I’ve seen, arguably the 2nd best pro league in Europe, and does not look out of place whatsoever as a near-2025 Draft eligible. The close quarters defending is a work in progress, but I think the profile is solid as-is, and there are flashes of offensive moves to create for linemates in the offensive zone, especially outside of the highest levels he plays in. He can be shifty from the offensive zone, look off primary options and quarterback offensive cycles well. There aren’t many areas I can really critique that matter a whole lot for players like Ustinkov, but he’s a solid defender with strong fundamentals, and moments where you see more in him. His World Junior wasn’t great from what I saw, but between him and point producing counterpart Leon Muggli, I see more projectable and interesting tools in Ustinkov that you can let develop in Switzerland for as long as necessary.
25) John Mustard - LW - Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL)
From what I’ve heard as I drop my fandom of John Mustard over the course of this season, it seems that this may be a bit of a controversial one. I completely admit the Mustard is a raw, unfinished product who can cause turnovers through inaccurate passing, overhandling, overconfidence, and can make you want to pull your hair out. On the other hand, the guy is a USHL rookie coming from AAA hockey last year, almost a 2025 Draft eligible, has exceptional speed, impressive skill to create lanes and break pucks out effectively, a great shot from range and a great nose for scoring chances off-puck around the net. Mustard will need time in Providence College to refine his game. If you take your time, you could have yourself a speedy, skilled, tall winger who may have potential as a centre. He may be quite shot heavy, but he’s among the leaders in my tracking when it comes to scoring chances from short range. Again, Mustard could very well end up low, but I keep moving other names lower, and whenever I see Mustard to move him lower as well, I always end up excited about many parts of his game and the potential locked within.
26) Lucas Pettersson - C - MoDo Hockey J20 (J20 Nationell)
Lucas Pettersson is a player that will giveth, and taketh away. I’ve been enamoured with the straight line speed, the playmaking at high pace, the effective forechecking and his international play in general, but my goodness do you want to shake him and demand more, and more often. Overthinking plays, overhandling the puck, skating into unwinnable situations, poor shot selection, this guy is all talent but just hasn’t settled in to take over shifts consistently. His J20 team isn’t great, so he may be trying to do too much on his own because he has to, and I’ll have my eyes on him down the stretch. I’m hopeful he gets a little more of an extended run with MoDo in the SHL after a tracked performance that exposed some of his limitations, but also indicated how he’s capable of working around them. I would expect him to pile on the points from here if he stays in J20 as MoDo will be playing the bottom half of competition, so I’m hoping to see him settle his play a little bit and make him a little more projectable to me. He’s a player that shows great promise in spurts, but I can easily see how this player could be selected significantly later than I have him ranked, and how I could have him deeper into my second round by year’s end.
27) Michael Hage - C - Chicago Steel (USHL)
I’ve been watching Michael Hage since his Toronto Jr. Canadiens days, and was a little bit concerned with his game after a less than spectacular injury-filled season with the Chicago Steel. This season has not been the same at all. Hage has showcased a game almost devoid of weaknesses in my view and is only limited by his footspeed and the aftereffects of a deficiency in that area. He’s highly skilled, baiting defenders, changing lanes, getting the puck off the boards into open ice, making creative plays in the offensive zone, and showcasing a high-end shot at the end of a chain of possession. Hage is a player that has been noticeable almost every shift I’ve seen him, making plays at high pace and in quick sequence at times. 27 to me is about as low as I’ll likely put him, and I could easily see him rising on my board towards the end of the year. His footspeed limits his defensive impact, but it’s almost overwhelmingly outweighed by the offense and potential locked therein for him to be an impactful offensive NHL centre.
28) Teddy Stiga - LW/C - U.S. National U18 Team (NTDP)
I saw a note from someone fawning over Teddy Stiga way back in October and I thought it was awfully silly after my early viewings of the NTDP. He’s undersized and I didn’t see a tremendously evasive or creative player so I made a note to track him, but thought little else. Then the day came and he simply blew me away. Stiga is undersized, yes, but he is, as the kids say (I think), a dawg. He’s a high pace player both on and off the puck, applying pressure remarkably well, causing turnovers many times and thinking quickly to set up scoring chances. Stiga doesn’t often overthink play with the puck, finding space and changing routes on the fly, with a great ability to slip passes through traffic. His shot may not be extremely high end as NHL-quality, but he rarely wastes his chances and gets those chances off his stick quickly. I doubt he’s a first round pick in the NHL Draft, but this is a guy who will give you 100% on every shift at both ends, never backing down from anyone, and making life a pain for opponents. If you’re foolish enough to let him play with the puck in the offensive zone, or wheel up in the neutral zone on the rush, you will probably be in some degree of distress.
29) Marcus Kearsey - LHD - Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL)
This one is completely and utterly out of left field, I know. I’m on the record many times about how Quebec seems to be falling behind the other Canadian leagues over time, and my bar for players in the QMJHL is very high. Kearsey caught my attention in the off-season as the Q’s leading scorer for D-1 defensemen, and he’s carried things into this season extremely well in my view. He isn’t the biggest defender, and he is absolutely not a rock in his own end, losing battles and getting erased more than you’d like, but the skating, skill level, confidence are all very good. Above all else, the way he sees the ice are seriously high end in my view. He’s one of the few defenders I’ve seen this year with a keen eye for juggling multiple pass options, changing pass lanes on the fly, keeping forecheckers guessing and moving play up the ice exceptionally well. In the offensive zone, he’ll juke off an opposing forward, step up into the dangerous areas and try to create chances in scoring areas, he’s got great edges to help shake off pressure as well. I’m not comparing him directly to Lane Hutson whatsoever, but the strengths and weaknesses are a bit of an echo. I would love to see Kearsey keep developing, getting quicker and more agile, overcoming his defensive faults with footwork and speed rather than strength, and leaning into his offense a little more than he already does at 5v5. He’s a project, but he’s always been a ton of fun for me to watch and likely won’t finish the year a significant amount lower than where he is here.
30) Konsta Helenius - C - Jukurit (Liiga)
I can hear the expletive-laden exclamations coming from all of you already. You scrolled and scrolled and scrolled, and here we are. Yes, I have Konsta Helenius ranked significantly lower than the marketplace, but as best put by Ronald McDonald of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia: “I’m dug in, and I’ll never change.” I’ve watched Helenius four times, tracked three other games and made a point to pay attention to him in the World Juniors. I just don’t see a player I would draft in the top 10 or 15 in this year’s class. I just kept coming across players that interested me more over and over and over. He’s somewhat undersized. He’s not a high pace player, he’s a fluid skater but not necessarily agile or quick. His skill level is practical but not at all high end to me. He’s producing in Liiga, I can’t fault him for that, but Liiga is a strange place. Look, I went to bat for Brad Lambert because of the pace, skill, and intensity he brought to the game, and how often he created offense for a team that did jack-poopie around him. Helenius plays like a good Liiga player, but to me, not a player who projects exceptionally well to the NHL. Not every NHL player needs to be a burner, or have insane levels of skill and can certainly get away largely with a high IQ, but there aren’t a ton of them, especially at the top end of the league and at Helenius’ size. The thinking off-puck and his vision with his passing are certainly high end, and maybe I am indeed completely out of my mind, but this is a guy who just feels like a bit of a passenger at the moment, and his World Junior somewhat confirmed that with his limited impact. Yes, I saw the player cards too, but I do not really care much. In my work, he’s by far most likely to be a factor in transition through pass receptions rather than his passing or carrying abilities. He’s physical, but not extremely impactful. His pass attempt rate is significantly below average, and his ability to create shots for linemates is limited to this point. He likely won’t end up any lower, because I do really respect the mind for the game he brings, it’ll just be a matter of how much he can develop his talent profile, and if he can be the creative and clever player he is in Liiga at the NHL level.
31) Tomas Galvas - RSD/LHD - Bílí Tygři Liberec (Czechia)
I will quote Gennaro Gattuso here: “Sometimes maybe good, sometime maybe shit.” That encompasses Tomas Galvas extremely well in my time watching him this year. He’s undeniably skilled, undeniably an excellent passer and often facilitates play well. His breakouts are a weakness, missing targets, bobbling pucks and not being quite evasive or quick enough on his feet to evade professional competition, but Galvas is still a ton of fun to watch. He isn’t a particularly mobile skater and can get taken for a walk in his own zone as such, but he anticipates play well, reading the game off-puck, seeing events happen before they occur, and showing plenty of promise as a pass-heavy puck moving defenseman. More time and experience at the top level will do him well, similar to fellow undersized countryman Jiri Tichacek, and the floor on his game is low for an NHL prospect, but his World Junior performance was largely impressive, and I think there’s plenty of headroom for him to develop. I’d love to see him get a bit more creative and confident in the offensive zone similar to a Marcus Kearsey, but the Czech Extraliga is not the QMJHL, and Galvas is absolutely playing a bit of a different style of play than I’ve seen him play at the junior level. Again, similar to a Jiri Tichacek as a 17 year old. He has his rough spots, but I’m hopeful.
32) Miguel Marques - RW - Lethbridge Hurricans (WHL)
Miguel Marques is a player I was only vaguely familiar with during the offseason and into this year, and I’ll credit PuckPreps colleague Joel Henderson on pointing him out. The highlights are top, top end in this class. His one on one moves and moments of completely undressing goaltenders on their own would put him about 10-20 spots higher on this list. He’s a player I would love to coach and motivate, because you just know he could be great. The skill level is tremendous, but you don’t see him use it in the situations where it would benefit him enough. He’s a pretty soft defender, but when he gets free with the puck, he’s a monster. He can pass, carry and receive the puck in transition all at a high level finding success with all three. His offensive zone play is often fantastic, making plays for linemates often, generating shot assists all over the offensive zone more than many players tracked. He isn’t shooting the puck a ton, but he certainly can, again feeding into the potential of his game with the right coaching and development. He reads play off-puck decently well but can struggle knocking down and settling pucks to get play going the other way, but the positives are certainly there. He generates offensive zone turnovers at a high rate, and you’re absolutely betting on those highlights and remarkable moments to become more and more commonplace over the next two years. There’s a level of risk with Marques, but if you like to bet on raw talent, this is a great option.
The Rest of Tier 4
Count me in the Dominik Badinka fan club. I’ve been watching him since playing with Jokerit in Finland’s junior system and have always liked the combination of footwork and skill. I didn’t think his J20 play this season really showed much built on top of what I remembered, but since seeing and tracking a few games in the SHL, the guy can straight up play. Evasive, a smart and capable defender who also happens to be tall and mobile, there’s a really nice package here. The offense hasn’t translated yet to the SHL but if it does isn’t really a concern of mine. He’s a well-rounded package at a high level and showing well in a tough men’s league, even if he has zero points to show for it.
Noel Fransén has not appeared in many industry-focused lists and I am honestly not sure why. If there’s something behind the scenes affecting things, then I suppose it could make sense but nothing has been public. He’s a confident offensive defender with great edges and is effective when called upon. His defense in transition isn’t great, but if this is a guy you can land way later in the draft, why not?
Beckett Sennecke has grown on me all year. He’s relatively quiet and unassuming for much of a game, but when he needs to open his bag of tricks, he does so to get through some kind of adverse pressure. His instincts, resilience and board work all project well to the NHL, with a solid shot to go on top of it all.
Yegor Graf is also nowhere to be seen on the CSS list and to me that’s dumbfounding. Him, Ivan Demidov and Ignat Lutfullin have been dismantling Russian junior hockey together this season and Graf has been a major cog in that machine. He plays with intensity, quarterbacks offensive rushes well, and has plenty of offensive creation in his toolkit once the puck gets there. He forechecks well, and while he may not be a punishing physical centre, I think there’s plenty of potential there for the agile youngster, especially as a swing in later rounds.
Matvei Shuravin is fine? Mobile, patient, intelligent with his defending, with some moments of rushing pucks up the ice, but I always finish games thinking “ok cool” and moving on. Is he a first round pick? Sure, this tier spreads well into the first round.
Jett Luchanko has been interesting. Very young for the draft class, very smart with his spacing and pace in transition, good forechecker, makes smart plays more often than not, but has some decent fundamentals to build on. I may not quite pencil him as a first rounder in my books just yet, but he’s impressed me more and more the more I see of him. Similar things can be said about Clarke Caswell as well.
Eemil Vinni might not have the numbers, but Scouching Discord Member and Future Considerations scout David Phillips highlighted him to me as his #1 goalie in the draft. It doesn’t take long to see why. Highly athletic and agile in the net, Vinni controls himself well between the pipes and has had some excellent international showings this year. I’m trying to learn more about goaltending this season and he’s been a lovely watch recently.
Carter Yakemchuk is one I’ll probably get a lot of questions about. The confidence and skill in the offensive zone is undeniable, but to me much of the rest is a major work in progress. It doesn’t check out to me that Yakemchuk can be considered as high as a top-15 pick while Noel Fransén is literally not even a consideration when their weaknesses are somewhat similar defensively, but in my view, Fransén is more mobile, more practically successful in the offensive zone while not necessarily appearing in highlight clips as much, and doesn’t lose possession moving pucks up the ice nearly as much.
Fyodor Avramov is someone I’ve kept in my back pocket all year. I think he’s just gross. Lightning quick shot release, high end skill, he’s relatively tall, and can throw his weight around. I’d love to see him attack the net a bit more, but he can beat goalies from range, and is a premier transition threat for Kapitan Stupino. I would love to see him get a couple of KHL games with HK Sochi down the stretch like talented linemate Artemi Kuznetsov, but there’s also no need to rush. There’s a ton of potential in his game and I’m not surprised to see him as successful as he’s been.
Cole Beaudoin has been rocketing up my board the last couple of weeks. Highly active and physical, but capable of great bursts of speed to evade pressure or battle through it. He gets to the net, but leans more into his great touch for making plays to linemates in the offensive zone. He’s one of the most efficient transition players in my database, albeit in somewhat low volumes, but he looks to be a great complimentary energy player with a bit of grease in his game.
Charlie Elick is such a Canadian defenseman. Not the best puck mover up the ice, but definitely shows capabilities of crisp breakout passes. He pursues physical play at all costs. His defensive transition numbers are worse than you’d expect because he’s leaving space through his physical play. He sits back on defensive transitions as well leading to lower volumes and relying on positioning more than anything. His tracked data isn’t super favorable, but he’s got a solid shot that he uses often, and I could see a decent minutes eater if you’re really down with somewhat more old-school physical defenders.
I’ve liked Evan Gardner and am not sure why he’s so low on the CSS list. He’s just really good at stopping pucks, stopping rebounds, getting across the crease, he’s just… good?
Hey look! Jiri Tichacek absolutely dominating the Czech league on one of it’s worst teams! Maybe he gets drafted finally but he probably won’t. Looking forward to seeing him sign a pro contract in a couple of years I suppose.
Tier 5 - Curiosities and Role Players
This is certainly an interesting group of potential depth pieces, as well as some home run swings, with the former led by smooth skating, skilled and big boy defender Adam Kleber. I thought he had some good moments in the Hlinka Gretzky tournament, and hoped he’d lean into his skill to generate offense. While the point totals don’t jump out at you, he’s a highly involved offensive player for Lincoln, and I’ve certainly seen some moments of cutting to the middle of the ice and earning scoring chances for both himself and his linemates.
Aatos Koivu, son of Saku is another one of these guys who is certainly his father’s son on the ice. While somewhat undersized, he’s a remarkably smart centre, finding space and providing strong puck support. All my viewings of him have been in Liiga and he certainly doesn’t look out of place there. I’m not sure of high end projectable NHL offense, but he’s another solid blank slate of a hockey player with the right feel for the game, a 200-foot approach, and enough smarts to make more good decisions than poor ones.
Finally we get to Aron Kiviharju. His Liiga games were not good, plain and simple. Am I surprised? Not particularly. Kiviharju is a remarkably smart passer, juggling pass options and getting pucks going in a good direction, but the rest of the picture is a work in progress to say the least. He had some poor moments in his own end directly leading to goals against, his mobility is far from ideal, he’s passive on the rush, and gets muscled off the puck more often than not. He returns from injury before the end of the season, and I’ll be watching him, but other players have impressed me more over the season that has just bumped Kiviharju down the list.
Cole Hutson isn’t his brother Lane, but he certainly tries to be. He edges and confidence are high end, but the rush defense is poor due to lack of backwards mobility, puck carriers plow through him often, and I have trouble betting on defenders who don’t show signs of a ton of NHL defending upside. If he’s a mid-round pick or falls really late then he’s a worthwhile swing, but it’s a tough call.
Kuzma Voronin is one of the most fun players in this tier, and if fun-factor were all I was concerned with, he’d be higher on the list. Highly skilled, a quick wrist shot, plays harder than you’d think off-puck, and just needs to settle into a more dependable offensive role. He can overhandle and get overconfident at times, but this brings some shades of Daniil Gushchin to me. I imagine Voronin will be drafted later than he should be if we’re looking at pure skill and upside, and hopefully I look forward to adding him to Team Scouching this season.
Many of these players are likely safer, NHL depth pieces. Will Skahan, EJ Emery, Ben Danford, Jacob Battaglia, Adam Jecho, Nathan Villeneuve and Carson Wetsch all come to mind as down the lineup dependable puck movers and physical defenders.
On the other hand, high skill longshots are in here too. Voronin is one of them, but I’d put Thibodeau, Therrien, Gridin, and He in there. Tons of skill, a good amount of intensity but getting through pressure and close quarters skill are works in progress. I’ll keep my eye on them moving forward but these could be the typical mid-late round swings that look solid in models but may project a little poorer once the NHL comes around.
Marek Vanacker is up that “good thinker but not a ton of high end tools yet” players. I’ve only seen him recently and will check in more, but he’s an efficient junior player with a projectable frame, just haven’t seen as much upside relative to many players ahead of him.
The Watchlist
This is where the fun begins. These players are just names I’ve noted that are either massive swings for the fences or interesting re-entry players who deserve another look.
Arvid Bergström was one of my best undrafted players from last year and he’s taken a nice step with his offensive confidence and skill level that has helped him produce more with his junior club. Defending at the men’s level is still a work in progress but as a late round swing you can stash in Sweden another three years, Bergström is one of the better options out there.
Hey look, Kenta Isogai scoring a bajilion points. Who would’ve thought?
Kieron Walton has been on my numbered list and Watchlist off and on all season. He’s huge, quite clunky on his feet, but the skill level and shot quality he has are top notch for a guy his size. I don’t know if he’s the most physical player down the road, but if you want a Liam Greentree-lite, Walton is a good option that I think could take a longer, but very positive developmental curve.
Petr Sikora might be Czechia’s best kept secret at the moment. I’ve loved his play with the national U18 team and he shows good promise with his men’s team. He’s smart and evasive, just can be knocked around a bit like any teenager playing against men. I’m looking forward to his U18 appearance later this year and will be keeping both eyes on him after seeing him a few times this season.
Ilya Pautov is just a ton of fun. Think a more skilled Dmitri Zugan for all you serious, serious draft geeks. Really creative player who pushes pace well and could be a nice late round pick you stash in Russia for a number of years as he develops.
See what I just wrote? Copy and paste for Norway’s Elias Straume Vatne. To say I’ve been disappointed with is play this year after what I saw last year is an understatement, but I still believe. He’s a little buzzsaw out there, rambunctious and all over the ice with great finishing ability, but playing as part of a unit on the ice when he isn’t the guy like he was with Norway’s U18 team last year seems to be a struggle. He’ll overhandle pucks and turn them over often, look off clear pass options to skate into too much pressure, all kinds of issues… But boy is he ever talented. If I could trade Mr. Future Considerations for pick #224, Vatne might be the guy I take a swing on.
Dominik Rymon and Ondrej Becher have been excellent at all levels all season long. I would highly consider picking them up and sending them back to Czechia to play at home at the pro level for a couple years before putting them in the AHL but they’re both high pace players that can evade pressure and make everyone they play with look good. Terik Parascak isn’t on my board, but when he finds space in the offensive zone, he buries it, and a lot of those pucks are coming from Ondrej Becher.
Ok so this is around the first time I’m bringing up Ludvig Johnson. Johnson plays in Zug and caught my eye watching Leon Muggli on the U20 team early in the season. Johnson is a highly talented skater focused on mobility, smart positioning, and a good skill level. The point totals don’t jump out at you, but he’s consistently among the top shot differential players on Zug’s junior team as well as on the Swiss U18 team when he plays there. I see positive things in his future over the next few years in Switzerland, and if he shows at the U18s and plays as well as he has thus far for his country, don’t forget who sent you.
Again credit to David Phillips but Ivan Yunin is frickin’ awesome. He’s an absolute ball of chaos in net for Omsk’s junior team. He barely plays, but he’s a tremendous amount of fun when he does. Immensely athletic in a similar vein to Petr Mrazek, who is absolutely all over the ice at times, Yunin can lose track of his posts and make life tough for himself, but I can easily see a good goaltending coach reining in the athleticism to refine his game. Again, maybe a guy you draft with a pick you just happen to come across while walking down The Vegas Strip in June, but he’s one I’ll have my eye on for the years to come.
Cedrik Johansson is a guy who caught my eye while watching the underrated Almtuna junior program in Sweden. He’s tall, very lanky, but plays with great pace and a good feel for the game, spacing himself well to make himself a passing option, and practically using skill well to earn scoring chances. I’ve been surprised not to see him on the J20 team much, but he’s an intriguing package that may go undrafted, but won’t be undrafted in my heart.
To close, Jesse Pulkkinen is all the way down here. Look, I’ve seen the player cards. I am aware of how many points he’s scoring. I get it. I’ve also watched him three times in Liiga and made a point to watch him at the World Juniors and I just cannot help but think that he’s an insanely confident and insanely tall “guy”. He carries pucks through highly dangerous lanes at limited speed, he has enough skill to get around one player, but I can’t help but think that stronger forechecks will snuff him out easily. His data at the U20 level is almost meaningless to me. Half of that league is basically a Canadian Junior C roster, he’s a 2004 born player, and his length and confidence basically allow him to dictate what he does on their own at that level. If you’re drafting him as a mid round swing, fine! Be my guest. But the first, second, even third player off the board for me? I might have trouble with that. Maybe I’m wrong, but it is undeniable that he is as scary as he is fascinating.
Thanks so much for reading! It means the world to have an audience that may or may not enjoy my work, but at the end of the day this is work. I’m at 300 tracked performances across four rounds worth of players to this point and I’ve loved every minute. If you are unaware, this season is an experiment in my life. I unfortunately lost my day job a few months back, but have started a company with some business partners where my tracked data can be licensed and accessed for organizations or individuals based on their needs. Combined with my work here with Scouching, I’m making a go of this as a day job. Being an entrepreneur has been a challenge, but a welcome one after years in a cubicle. This work brings me great joy, and sharing it with you is something I missed greatly while I was away.
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Thank you all again, I can’t wait to hear your takes, and I’ll see you in the livestreams! Mondays at 8pm EST, and Thursdays at 2pm EST.
Five Takeaways from the 2024 World Junior Championships
The 2024 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships are now in the history books and we can all get back to screaming at our local NHL and PWHL hockey teams while slowly coming to the realization that the playoffs are not within reach, and I go back to watching billions of hours of hockey to make sure I’m as supposedly informed as I’d like to be. In the meantime, we can reflect on the events that transpired and look forward to the future a little, then as your NHL worlds crumble, I’ll be there to help ease you into what is likely to be a wonderfully wild 2024 NHL Draft season.
Rather than going through every team and analyzing them individually, I thought it would be prudent to explore five storylines that I noted to carry forward into the future. This tournament as a whole really was one for the ages in my opinion. The gold medal champion United States team was one of the deepest rosters ever assembled, and while things looked shaky in spots, they were the team to beat, and nobody could when push came to shove. They had swagger, they had skill, they had confidence, and they very often had the puck. A remarkable team filled with future NHL talent that we’ll likely be watching for years to come.
If it weren’t for the Americans, the Swedes would be the other “Golden Generation” roster, better than many we’ve seen on paper in the last few years. While the same level of raw talent on all four lines wasn’t quite there, this was a team with some serious firepower at both skater positions, and I would expect many of these players to at least become strong NHL roleplayers with some serious skill on the side. Strong team, strong tournament, but unfortunately not the result they were hoping for against an all-time American team.
What can you say about the Czechs and Finns here… That bronze medal game was one of the most outrageously entertaining sporting events I’ve ever seen. I can’t recall the last time I saw six unanswered goals, let alone in a medal game. Hockey is a crazy, crazy sport, and based on how the Czechs managed to squeak their way through Canada in the Quarterfinals, only to fall dramatically to the Swedes in the semifinals, I didn’t think the Czechs had much of a shot to out-Finn the Finns. Yet the hockey gods looked down upon me and said “My Dearest Silly Son, behold our power”, and while they dangled the carrot of correctness in front of me through two periods, the thunder of their vengeance struck the universe and the Czechs ripped off five goals to seal a surprise bronze medal win in a tough, grinding game where the score definitely didn’t indicate that. I have no idea how people don’t love more and more scoring in hockey and this game is exactly why. The drama level was pinned at 10 and it was glorious.
This was a tournament of upsets, and in my view not a tournament of disappointment on the part of individual teams. Every team had something to hang their hat on. Latvia beat Germany, Germany beat Finland, Norway nearly avoided relegation after a largely brutal round robin, the Swiss nearly stunned the Swedes in the quarterfinals, and even teams that weren’t satisfied with their finish in Slovakia and Canada at least went down swinging, and unfortunately in heartbreaking fashion. So here are some takeaways for me, but before that, here’s my All-Star Team from the tournament:
Gavin Brindley (USA/CBJ) | Macklin Celebrini (Canada/2024 NHL Draft) | Jonathan Lekkerimäki (Sweden/VAN)
Lane Hutson (USA/MTL) | Trey Augustine (USA/DET) | Axel Sandin Pellikka (Sweden/VAN)
MVP: Jonathan Lekkerimäki (SWE)
Top Goalie: Trey Augustine (USA)
Unexpected Surprise of the Tournament: Matej Prcik (CZE)
Pleasant Surprise of the Tournament: Jani Nyman (FIN)
Jesse Pulkkinen Award: Jesse Pulkkinen, there can only be one. (FIN)
1) Don’t Sleep on Norway
It is very very unfortunate that Norway was relegated. Nothing against Germany, but I’m somewhat more optimistic about the future of Norwegian players than I am about German ones, and was hoping to see their version of a “golden generation” continue to develop and be challenged in the top group, but alas, here we are, and instead we get Kazakhstan for next year. I’m a strong believer in Norway’s youth right now, with some seriously high level talent playing in Sweden and at high levels within Norway. I would expect them to run through the Division 1A tournament with a younger roster next year featuring names like Mikkel Eriksen, Mathias Dehli Elias Straume Vatne, Jørgen Nyhus Myhre and Tinus Luc Koblar who have impressed me in limited viewing this year. The goal for them should at least be to be set up with a cohesive and skilled roster ready to compete in the top division in 2026, which I think is very, very achievable. This is a U18 roster that has played Denmark, Hungary, and Slovakia this year in friendly matches, winning all three by a combined score of 23-6, and saved themselves from relegation last season in the U18 championships. There’s something here, and it’s worth nurturing, regardless of the relegation.
2) Macklin Celebrini is Him.
This kinda goes a little bit without saying, but having seen hundreds of players eligible for this year’s draft over the course of the last four months, I was of the belief that there were a few players that could hold a candle to the 1st overall tier of talent that Macklin Celebrini seemed to have a grip on. Berkly Catton and Cayden Lindstrom may have been interesting options for Canada this year, but I’m almost certain they wouldn’t have played like that. Celebrini was by far the most fun and skilled player on the Canadian roster throughout their tournament, and for a team that somewhat struggled to play with pace and evasion, especially on the rush, Celebrini was there being an absolute machine. The edgework, the power and confidence to push to scoring areas, the awareness of his centre of gravity to avoid pressure, there was so much on display and while I believe you can’t use this tournament to take much away, it really does say something that from basically the moment he stepped on the ice, he was a cut above almost anyone on the ice, or at least largely on his own team. The Canadian team wasn’t nearly as “disappointing” as some have led on, I must say, but if anything that makes what Celebrini achieved even more impressive. It would be difficult to take him from the mantle of 1st overall this season, but there’s still plenty of hockey left to be played, and I haven’t forgotten about SKA St. Petersburg dynamo Ivan Demidov. I’m still waiting for his magic loan to HK Sochi to follow in Matvei Michkov’s steps to find what he’s truly capable of against men… Speaking of Canada and disappointment…
3) Regarding Canada: Frickin’ Chill, but Maybe Reflect a Bit?
Hockey in Canada in the 2020s is… Strange. The world seems to be catching up with regards to developing their best players out of their respective pools, and USA hockey undoubtedly is churning out elite talent almost every season both in the USHL and with the NTDP in Ann Arbour. The factors that drive play in the modern game largely just are not the same as they were 10, even 5 years ago. Sure, you could nitpick the way the roster was constructed in spots, but to me that’s missing the point. Canada was a team largely filled with either smart, effective but safe players, or had a number of highly offensive leaning skilled players who needed the puck already in the offensive zone to play their best. They play the body often and heavily, trying to grind down opponents and win battles, but other teams seemed to play more aggressively positionally, angling rushes into less dangerous areas, and use physical play as a last resort or a tool to separate a player from the puck. Watchign other teams, it felt like the more logical thing to just play the puck itself first, stay on your feet in a gap from your opponent, and allowing yourself the freedom to use a couple strides to get around your opponent and start the other way with support from teammates. Yes, Canada won two gold medals in 2022 and 2023, but if you look deeper, this is a team that hasn’t been as dominant as it was for quite a while now. Quarterfinal eliminations, overtime and shootout wins, lucky bounces here and there, and now the shoe is on the other foot with their exit from this tournament.
I have to reiterate, Canada was not bad. They deserved to win that game against Czechia. They were a very good team at this tournament, but it should be explored why this team looked somewhat hapless in their round robin game against Sweden. Why other countries are developing high end goaltender after high end goaltender. Why Canada’s defensive depth made them look no different on the ice to the defensive depth of a team like Czechia or Finland. Yes, injuries were a factor, and yes there were NHL players not here, but many teams had injuries, many teams had NHL players that were unavailable, and Canada is supposed to be a powerhouse in this game globally. The structure of how we develop players, and how we focus our talented players to challenge them and play their best hockey seems to be somewhat illogical relative to other nations. Many European players play for local town clubs for years. Same teammates, same opponents, competition that fluctuates but ends up concentrated every year, and significantly more flexibility to get players playing at the right level for them. The US has one top junior league with 15 teams in it, and USA Hockey runs a program for the best 15, 16, and 17 year olds in their eyes to push them as far as they possibly can. These players then go to college where they’re facing players well into their 20’s from day 1. Canada has basically infinite AAA and prep school programs around the country, three leagues of 20 top level junior teams with their own drafts, forcing teenagers to move hundreds or thousands of kilometres from home, an entire system of individual provincial leagues below that just for players destined for college and those who couldn’t crack the top junior level, and they’re limited to playing in these leagues and only these leagues until they’re 20 or 21, after which point they go directly to the level right beneath the NHL. It just doesn’t really make any sense relative to other nations. Heck, Russia is dealing with somewhat similar issues, albeit much more politically self-inflicted. They’re clearly trying to maintain the image of strong sports infrastructure, so they’re adding more teams at the top junior level, and giving more teams in the same league to the same elite programs. The KHL is bleeding non-Russian talent, diluting their pool there, and the MHL is now a league where basically half the teams may as well be in a different league on their own, so this isn’t an issue alone to Canada.
What’s the solution? I’m not paid nearly enough to figure that out, let alone implement it, but what I do know is that having lived here for 33 years, I can tell that any structural rocking of the boat may as well be the Titanic sinking for these local towns and cities in this country. Canadians don’t like change, and the voices from outside its largest cities can be extremely loud and protective of their interests, and any change likely comes with what would be perceived as adverse effects for these places and teams. This is anecdotal on my part but many Canadians love to do things by the book, and often according to a moral code of some kind, while one thing I love about American culture is their willingness to try things, their willingness to fund things, and their ability to be creative and above all else, have some fun and act like they’re having fun doing… pretty much anything. Practially speaking, a Canadian version of the US NTDP with a dispersal program after they turn 18 of some kind might be worthwhile? Plop them in the USHL or something and have them play the US NTDP a bunch over the course of a season maybe? I don’t know. Hockey in Canada is an expensive, a rocking sea of politics, economics, and conservative cultural preferences. Change is tough, but I’m hoping that Canada somehow finds a way to regain their status as the shining city on a hill in the world of hockey, because what is good for Canada, is of course, good for the World.
4) I’m Never Underestimating the Finns ever, ever, ever again.
Yes, they didn’t win a medal. Yes, that loss ended up somewhat historically embarrassing for them. It just was not an ideal finish at all. That said, this is more about the bigger picture regarding Finnish hockey that I always seem to forget, and then am reminded of almost every year. This Finnish team brought somewhat of an old-school style hockey team, blended with new school skill and talent. Their best players were big, skilled, and absolutely lethal individual shooters. They were pounding you if they didn’t have the puck, and they were pounding pucks if you gave them space in the offensive zone. Thinking with my NHL cap, do I think it’s a team full of future NHL stars? Not really, but at this level, they are the perfect example of how a grinding but modern style of play looks like. They were often crisp enough on their offensive rushes, and if they weren’t they had the length and strength to fight for possession back. There were flashes of skill and pace from Jere Lassila many times, but to me the story was about who he was surrounded by. For me personally it was a good reminder of what to take home for my own analysis. I wasn’t a huge fan of Lenni Hämeenaho, but I can easily see why he’s improved over last season with better puck skill, a better shot, and more willingness to take pucks to scoring areas. I wasn’t a huge fan of Kasper Haaltunen, but with how physical and tough, he is, with that absolutely bonkers shot of his, his NHL role may be somewhat limited, but you can see an NHL role for him, especially if he ups his speed. Jani Nyman is a perfect example of who to potentially model his improvements after. While not an elite skater, the skill and strength in combination gave Nyman enough ability to be a transition threat as well as a puck possession threat in the offensive zone.
This seems to happen more often than not, where the Finns come in with a bit of a middling team, but turn out a performance that nobody expects. This year fell apart a little bit, but this is a team that should keep their heads held high, with another likely surprisingly strong team next season.
5) USA Hockey’s Last 15 Years are a Miracle on Ice
I’ve been on this planet for quite a while. I remember crying at the television when Marc-Andre Fleury literally handed the USA their first gold medal at this tournament all the way back in 2004. I’ve been around to see more and more USA Hockey and NCAA players find their way into the early rounds of the NHL Draft, and I’ve seen more and more Americans populating the top scorers list in the NHL. Since 2015, I’ve been watching a lot of hockey outside the NHL/AHL pipeline, and let me tell you that this is a country that has come an incredibly long way through my lifetime. What we’re seeing now is what I would call a paradigm shift. It wasn’t just a Gilded Age for American players, starting with Auston Matthews in 2015 and ending with the Smith/Leonard/Perreault line in 2023. This is a systemic shift in the landscape of hockey that I don’t believe is going away. The level of competition in the USHL has even been remarkable on it’s own. This season, some of my favourite American players to watch that couldn’t crack the NTDP are on other USHL teams, elevating their team’s ability in the face of the most elite kids in the nation playing together for a few years in a row. At this level, the Americans have brought a team that is at least favoured or expected to get all the way to a gold medal game for many years in a row. Yes, they may see these games as their Stanley Cup and they have the benefit of years of cohesion, but the talent is undeniable. 5 gold medals in the last 15 tournaments ties Canada’s measure and 10 total medals also ties Canada, but this is not something that was always true, and judging by the talent they have coming through the NHL Draft these days, I don’t think this trend is going to change.
The Canadians have some good players coming in the 2024 NHL Draft, and they’ll almost certainly remain a very strong team in this tournament, but it’s very very difficult to deny that the hockey nation pushing this sport into the future the strongest these days may very well be what USA Hockey has built south of the border.
This tournament is just the best. I say it all the time, but it’s just amazing. The goal of all of this is to entertain, and entertain they did. The personalities, the drama, the beef, the skill, it’s just incredible and something I wish we had a bit more of in the NHL. If you liked it, please be sure to support the Women’s U18 that is now going on in Gothenberg. These women can really play, and if you want to talk about equalization of a sport with more competition, this tournament has been significantly closer and more exciting than it’s been prior. I’ll be watching and following along, and with the PWHL, I’d like to make the women’s game part of my work in some way moving forward.
As a final note, I want to start saying that the events transpiring in Ukraine are horrific and wrong, and I’m a believer in the right to self-determination for a nation free of foreign influence, and Russia’s long history of using of sport to project political power and influence puts them in a position to rightfully be excluded from international competition like this, but I really miss the Russians at this tournament. It’s a real shame to see the strange changes in Russian hockey that I believe is negatively impacting competition level over there, and it’s a real shame that we lack the completely unique and remarkable vibes that the Russian junior team always brought to this tournament. The flash, the risky style of play, the often unbelievable goaltending, it was just such great television every time, even when pouring in five goals to win a gold medal against an overconfident and gloating Canadian team and crowd in 2011 that I witnessed in person while ill, but I’m not bitter, no sir. I really, really hope for brighter times ahead for Ukraine and that this conflict ends as best it can for them without sacrificing their nation, culture, and people. They’ve been through enough over the last, oh, 150 years or so? That said, selfishly I really hope the stage can be set for a return to normalcy for Russian international hockey because in their own way, they’re awesome.
So that’s it, back to the meat-grinder of getting back to the 2024 Draft Analysis and other hockey-related work I do with PuckPreps and Fractal Hockey. What a tremendous tournament, as it usually is, and I can’t wait for the next one in Ottawa. With any luck, I’ll be there myself covering it from the ground, and with more luck, I’ll be making the trip down to Minnesota for the 2026 installment to watch (hopefully) these Norwegians I’m so excited for… make the… quarterfinals? Maybe? I admit I have strange priorities. In any case, thank you so much for reading, and I’ll be seeing you in our livestreams Mondays at 8pm and Thursdays at 2pm!
Previewing the World Junior Relegation Round and Why it Matters
So the Round Robin of the 2024 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship is in the books, and what a round of hockey it was. Germany beating Latvia, Latvia beating Germany, Germany giving Canada a run for their money, Canada getting shut out by Sweden, Sweden blowing a rivalry game against Finland, Finland losing to Germany, I could go on. Group A was a wild show, and Group B while a little more stable certainly had it’s fair share of surprises. Norway held the USA to just 4 goals, and the Czechs almost squeaking out a win over an all-time American roster made things a bit more interesting and gave the USA a bit to think about going into the playoff rounds. In Germany’s case, everything came down to their game against Canada, separating them from potentially 2nd in their division and the upcoming relegation match, and dangit they came close…ish!
So onto the relegation round. I think it’s important to cover these fledgling teams, especially after they both put on some relatively heroic performances. There isn’t nobody coming from these countries that can play hockey, and Norway especially seems to be on the right track for a strong group of youngsters moving forward. If it were up to me, this tournament would be even bigger and grander than it already is, but such is life. Celebrating the global reach of this sport is something I think we need more of, especially with the youth of the sport and just how good some of these players are. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård is almost certain to be the highest drafted Norwegian in the NHL Draft and there is likely more to come in the future. I greatly enjoyed watching these teams compete and have absolutely no clue exactly what is going to go down in the relegation game, but both of these teams can keep their heads held high both for their performance this season, and the potential in the seasons to come.
Norway
MVP - Petter Vesterheim
Curiosity - Stian Solberg
I will admit that the Norwegians didn’t quite have as good a round robin as I expected, except for a ridiculously wild game against the powerhouse Americans, holding them to just 4 goals in a 4-1 loss. Allowing 26 goals in four games isn’t going to get you places very often, and two of Norway’s most notable players are ineligible in Noah Steen and Petter Vesterheim, but in my view Vesterheim showed why he should be considered as a re-entry pick for the 2024 NHL Draft. The speed, energy level, and skill stood out as a player operating at a much higher pace than many of his teammates. 2024 Draft eligible Michael Brandsegg-Nygård was a standout as well, showing a great combination of size and skill while evading pressure and earning key controlled zone transitions and drove great results for the Norwegians including tying for the team lead in scoring.
The Norwegians were going to need to rely heavily on the undersized Markus Røhnebæk Stensrud, and while he had a spectacular showing against the Americans, he showed exactly why goalies his size are so difficult to rely on at times. The athleticism was clearly there, but once teams started shooting high and often, with pre-shot passing into scary scoring areas, things got exponentially more difficult. I remain a fan of the guy, as I’ll root for undersized players any day of the week, but this was a tough few games for Norway after a great start to the tournament against the USA.
Will they get relegated against the Germans? It’s entirely possible. The Germans have played tight, selfless and physical hockey, but there’s definitely a little more star power coming from the top of the Norwegian lineup. If all else fails, Norway has some highly interesting talent coming in the future, and 7 players are eligible and likely to return. 2023 U18 standout Elias Straume Vatne is likely entering the stage, but Lukas Nikolaj Pettersen-Finckenhagen, Jørgen Nyhus Myhre and especially Mikkel Eriksen are looking like bright pieces for the Norwegian future on the ice.
Germany
MVP - The Goaltending
Curiosity - Roman Kechter
While the Germans were sent to the relegation round, you can’t largely can’t fault their effort through the tournament considering the group they brought. Julian Lutz was expected to be a principal play driver for the team, but the Germans split their duties well, a trait necessary for any underdog team in this tournament. Roman Kechter and Veit Oswald’s skill and evasion were on display and helped keep Germany afloat against almost all opponents.
The real star of the show seemed to be Matthias Bittner, seemingly coming out of nowhere to make key stops against powerhouses Sweden and Canada. In my view, that Canada game ends extremely lopsided without Bittner in net, even with all the penalties flying around. His quickness, even in desperation and on secondary opportunities were key.
Unfortunately, every game in this tournament can make a huge difference, and a shock at the hands of Latvia puts them in the relegation game against Norway where I would expect them to remain in the top division, but the game could be tighter than expected. The Germans can go home with their heads held high in the least thanks to an extraordinary win over Finland. In case you had your TV on mute, it was their first against the Finns at this tournament ever. It was a tight, grinding game, but the Germans seemed to beat the Finns at their own game, doing a great Metapod impression, hardening their defensive game and taking advantage of the opportunities they had while getting a tremendous performance from Philipp Dietl. I don’t see a tremendous amount of high end talent coming to add to the six names returning for next year, but the Germans always show up to these tournaments ready to grind out another one. That said, David Lewandowski, Rio Kaiser, and Simon Seidl are all names that have popped up on my radar in quick viewings over this season and stretching into last year, so keep an eye peeled for that group to be part of a curious future for the Germans.
As a brief note, there will be a live show after the quarterfinals and semifinals in the evenings of January 3rd and 4th, and we’ll be doing live shows for the Medal Round on the 5th so be sure to subscribe to Scouching on YouTube, Twitch or follow on X to catch the next show and get notified when we go live! Thanks for reading and see you then!
Scouching’s 2024 World Junior Championship Preview
Happy Holidays to you all! Once all the presents are opened and the turkey is consumed, it’s time for the best part of the season: Turkey sandwiches and the World Junior Hockey Championships, gathering the best of the best talent from ten hockey nations under the age of 20. This tournament is always a must-watch series of games full of drama, comebacks and dazzling highlight reel creativity. This year’s installment may lack the star power of names like Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli, but in my view this could be one of the more evenly competed tournaments that could feature some tremendously gif-able moments from quite a few teams.
As is tradition, below is a spreadsheet containing rosters, jersey numbers and some basic data behind some of these names so you can follow along with your favorites!
Relegation Contenders
Germany - 5.79 NHLeS
Player to Watch - Simon Wolf (G)
The Germans tournament is likely to come down to a victory over the Latvians in their division, which in my view may be a bit of a challenge considering the roster the Germans are bringing. A quarterfinal victory seems unlikely at best, but unlike Austria at last year’s tournament, this is a team that should at least be somewhat competitive, featuring a number of players either drafted to the NHL or likely could feasibly be on NHL radars.
Simon Wolf has been having an excellent season playing for the Red Bull Hockey Academy under strong workloads, and he will certainly be relied upon heavily in net. Julian Lutz is likely to be a major part of the offensive equation along with Roman Kechter, a combination of high pace, good skill and high physicality that will be necessary to make an impact against better teams. Moritz Elias factors in as well among other names who have had solid DEL seasons that could provide supplementary punch. Buffalo Sabres draft pick Norwin Panocha should be capable behind the offensive group moving pucks and closing gaps trying to make Wolf’s life a little easier. On the draft-eligible side, Paul Mayer is the only player in his first year of eligiblity and in the international viewings I’ve had of Mayer, I don’t have a whole lot to say and don’t expect him to be a major needle-mover for the Germans.
It’s likely to be a rough ride for this team in a pretty talented group. Could a great goaltending performance keep them afloat and challenge a better team on paper? Of course, this is the World Juniors and I’ve seen many a goaltender rob a team of a win over the last 25 years. Names like Kechner and Lutz can push things in the right direction, but it’ll take some stars aligning and a key win over Latvia to stay out of the danger zone.
Norway - 6.73 NHLeS
Player to Watch - Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (RW)
The team most likely to head to the relegation round out of Group B this year is likely this Norwegian team, but this is not a team to be underestimated if you think you’ll be able to roll over them. There is a little bit of a limited golden generation coming through Norway, and nothing is out of the question at this tournament. The Mora IK trip of Petter Vesterheim, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård and Noah Steen are likely to be seeing plenty of ice together, and we won’t be seeing two of those players at this level again. I’ve been a huge fan of Vesterheim over the last two season, and Noah Steen has developed into a highly skilled net-driven winger against professional competition in Sweden. While I’m not particularly a fan of their defense group, including 2024-eligible Stian Solberg (but I’m happy to have my mind changed here), players like Gabriel Koch, Ludvig Lafton and Christopher Lie have been impressive in spurts when I’ve caught them. There isn’t a ton of depth here, but the top end of the team could surely make an impact, even against some of the best teams in their division. Should they sneak out a few points over the Swiss or perhaps the Czechs, the Norwegians could land themselves in a surprise quarterfinal spot, but it’s going to be tough. 2023 World Under-18 Championship standout and 2024 NHL Draft prospect Elias Straume Vatne was left at home somewhat surprisingly, but after my viewings of him, he’s a frustrating and strange player, albeit highly skilled and creative… almost to a fault.
My expectation in net is that Markus Røhnebæk Stensrud will see the net, at least at first, with significant international experience, helping to earn the Norwegians a spot in this year’s top division tournament. He’s undersized and having a ho-hum season in Norway, and should he falter, the Mora IK system is sending another option in Martin Holtet Lundberg who has had some decent results. They’re going to be busy, but the challenge should be alleviated somewhat with the firepower up front.
Latvia - 7.72 NHLeS
Key Player - Dans Locmelis (C)
The Latvians are going to likely be battling the Germans for a spot in the relegation round, and bouncing around the names on this roster, they’re going to be in for a challenge. It’s the youngest team in the tournament, carrying 9 players eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft for the first time. There is some size in Eriks Mateiko, Emils Veckaktins, and Rainers Rullers among others, and being willing to use it and physically challenge their opponents will likely be key. A power play here and there could be critical to their success, as goaltending and firepower at 5v5 is likely to be a huge challenge. They have shooting threats in Darels Uljanskis and Sandis Vilmanis, and certainly a good amount of physical resilience in their big players, but this tournament is going to be a challenge to keep them in the top division and it could easily come down to a couple of fateful games against a decent Norwegian team, or the Swiss. The advantage they have is that many of these players have experience playing together and certainly show up to tournaments like this, but a deep Cinderella run seems like a bit of a longshot.
Switzerland - 8.15 NHLeS
Key Player - Rodwin Dionicio (D)
I might be one of very few, but the Switzerland/Norway matchup is going to be pivotal for both teams in order to earn a playoff spot. I would put my cash on the Swiss to come out on top, with a number of players coming from an underrated Swiss top men’s division that could really move the needle. Goaltending is absolutely a question mark, as is dependable scoring depth, but Rodwin Dionicio leads a defense group that could be a surprise for NHL Draft nerds if they play Leon Muggli and Daniil Ustinkov as much as they should this year. Muggli has his faults, but the offense and shot on the PP are undeniably positive, and if he isn’t on the ice, Zurich’s Daniil Ustinkov is no slouch in the offensive zone, regardless of what his men’s league production has been. He’s careful with the puck, simple but effective defensively, and has been a mainstay on the Swiss national team for years already, and I hope to see plenty of both he and Muggli this year.
They’re going to need bounces to go their way here and there, and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Norway finds their way into the Quarterfinals over Switzerland, but with the pace and skill of Jamiro Reber and Endo Meier, with the well rounded offensive game of Leo Braillard, Miles Müller and Gregory Weber, if they get some solid insulating defense, staying in the top division should be doable for this group.
Medal Contenders
Czechia - 12.57 NHLeS
Key Player - Jiri Kulich (C)
Czechia is bringing a team that could potentially make some serious waves in this tournament. Led by high end NHL draft selections Jiri Kulich and Eduard Sale, don’t forget about the solid talent around them that could give the team a serious boost. Matyas Sapovaliv returns and should bring a powerful, steady presence to the middle of the ice, and Dominik Rymon has carried his high scoring skilled game from the Czech junior levels through to his WHL experience with the Everett Silvertips. The Prince George Cougars have been a wagon this year, and many eyes are trained on 2024 Draft Eligible Terik Parascak, I’ve found that a ton of that bus driving is being done by Ondrej Becher. He’s slippery, pushes defenders onto their heels with his pace and deception, and could be an outside chance of being an NHL pick himself should his World Junior performance match his excellent WHL campaign. There’s solid depth up front, even if it lacks significant raw firepower outside of Jiri Kulich.
Defensively, the Czechs contain a solid amount of stability and flash, with Tomas Cibulka, 2024 NHL Draft prospect Tomas Galvas and at times, Vojtech Port all showing skill and offensive flashes. Tomas Hamara, Marek Alscher and Adam Jiricek add some level of mobility and safety to offset those previous names, and are great examples of size down the lineup for the Czechs.
There’s no doubt that this team can hold themselves against other medal contending competition and potentially grind out a tough quarterfinal win. The one thing standing in their way is potentially in between the pipes. Michael Hrabal has had his share of shaky starts in the Czech net over the last few years, but his potential is sky-high. If he falters, Jakub Vondras and Michael Schnattinger are largely unproven at this level, but you never know. Goaltending is extremely important in this tournament, and with the team set out in front of Hrabal, if he plays his best, this team could surprise.
Slovakia - 11.43 NHLeS
Key Player - Filip Mesar (RW)
Slovakia may very well have the most underrated roster in the whole tournament. I always highly value players who have spent time playing together, and the Slovak national team has set the stage for many of these players in their youth and where they are today. Defensively there are some gaps for sure, but I’ll be very curious to see 16 year old Luka Radivojevic, who has looked strong in the Swedish junior leagues when I’ve caught him.
The forward group is where their game is going to shine, in my view. Leading returnee Filip Mesar is likely to be an electrifying skilled player relied upon to produce in key moments, but Samuel Honzek, Dalibor Dvorský and Juraj Pekarcik will bring a combination of shooting ability, size and skill to the picture that should diversify the team’s abilities. Adam Sýkora and Martin Misiak are personal favourites with physical intensity and power skill games so I hope to see strong performances in every sense of the term. I’m also expecting another personal favorite in Alex Ciernik to be an offensive factor and make a bit of a name for himself after an exceptional season on a poor Västerviks team in HockeyAllsvenskan.
Adam Gajan, Samuel Urban and Rastislav Elias are a strong trio with excellent international experience, and should their workloads get heavy here, I have faith that they’ll be able to keep it together. This is a team that very nearly eliminated the Canadians last season in the quarterfinals driven by Adam Gajan saving 53 of 57 shots, and many key players are returning from that strong roster. I wouldn’t count this team out of winning a medal this year, and what’s more is 11 players being eligible to return next year as well.
Finland - 14.36 NHLeS
Key Player - Jani Nyman (RW)
Finland is a team I was expecting to look decent coming into this tournament, and I think I’ve forgotten about quite a few players on their roster. On paper, they’re led by Konsta Helenius and his oft-Golden Helmet worthy season with Jukurit, but the thing that I always keep in mind with Finns at this level is that they play as a unit, and when they play physical and counterattack effectively when they get chances, they win. Think of the Florida Panthers last year literally steamrolling through the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and now make them teenagers, and you may have the Finnish roster of this season’s tournament. 9 of their skaters are listed at 6’2” or taller, and only Canada has more in that category, and potentially Latvia depending on their cuts. In a sense, that could matter, and this is a team that may not look like they’re achieving much in a game, and then next thing you know, someone throws a puck in front of the net and a giant man is there to bash it in.
To be more specific, there are many names on this team that I’m a fan of. Jani Nyman brings size, pace and skill with excellent finishing ability, coming into the tournament as the highest scoring Liiga player. Copy paste what I just said about Kasper Halttunen in a way. He’s gigantic, but slow and heavy, but a lethal shot and a physical edge. If someone looks the wrong way at Niklas Kokko in net, he’ll probably be more than happy to get involved. Rasmus Kumpulainen, Emil Hemming, Kalle Kangas, Samu Bau and Lenni Hämeenaho all bring a physical edge as well to chip in on that side of the game.
This team isn’t all toughness and physical play though. Of course there’s Konsta Helenius up front, but Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Oiva Keskinen was one of the few players drafted that I had never seen that I was quite impressed by in my viewings with skill and pace in his game. Jere Lassila has been a Finnish junior team mainstay and brings speed and skill up the middle of the ice and should be able to transport pucks to his bigger and heavier teammates effectively. Coming from the NCAA, Max Koskipirtti and Tommi Männistö are also effective skaters who should be able to chip in with areas the team lacks.
The defensive side of the team also brings a solid amount of skill and shooting ability with Arttu Kärki, Otto Salin, and Kasper Kulonummi bringing a solid combination of these talents. I’ve always had an interest in the skilled but understated Joona Väisänen coming out of the USHL as well. The bizarre wild card in all of this is the gigantic undrafted defender Jesse Pulkkinen. There are some who are considering him a relatively high prospect for the NHL draft this year, with remarkable size, confidence and skill level, and while I’m not quite sold at this point, I’ll be keeping an eye on him for this year’s contest. The Finnish junior league is a wildly unbalanced level of play, and a much older, and much bigger Pulkkinen gets away with a tremendous amount by virtue of his puck protection, creativity, and pure size. I’ve wanted to see him at higher levels of competition, and I haven’t been blown away with his Mestis play, but he could have some really fun moments in this tournament.
There’s clearly lots to dig into about the Finnish roster this year. Their potential to grind out some wins here and there like the Czechs is right there, and if they get some saves from whoever is guarding the pipes, they could take things as far as they want to. They have a physical edge, but skill and finishing ability at all positions. Don’t count them out either.
Medal or Bust
Canada - 21.66 NHLeS
Key Player - Matthew Savoie (C)
Canada is always a… somewhat frustrating team at this tournament. Poor goaltending and too many penalties in a more strict international game is always an Achilles heel that makes their road to a medal significantly harder than it should be. This season, the roster is no slouch, and could easily compete for a gold medal, but my line of thinking that Hockey Canada is more a part of the pack of elite hockey nations rather than a global leader continues to be somewhat reinforced when comparing this roster to the Swedes and United States.
The scoring side of things should not be in doubt. Matthew Savoie, Jagger Firkus and Conor Geekie are in the midst of outstanding WHL seasons. Oh wait, Jagger Firkus was left at home… Ok then! Easton Cowan, Carson Rehkopf, and Denver Barkey in the midst of outstanding OHL seasons of their own, and Jordan Dumais is scoring at a historic rate in the QMJHL. Oh wait, the Canadians sent home Denver Barkey too. Ok! Macklin Celebrini, the likely first overall selection in the 2024 NHL Draft will factor in as well with his impressive combination of offensive tools through strength, shooting, and flashes of playmaking. Brayden Yager, Owen Beck and Nate Danielson will also be major factors down the lineup for the forward group. Regardless of the somewhat questionable dismissals, Canada does have a strong, deep group of forwards more than capable of medaling.
The rest of the team appears to be a huge mixed bag. Their goaltending is a collection of high save percentage QMJHL options and some sub-0.900 goaltending from the much better OHL and WHL, and will certainly be challenged by a number of teams in their group. Defensively, there is a combination of rovers and physical defenders, and their effectiveness will be critical to the success of this team. I’m not a huge believer in Denton Mateychuk, but as a power play weapon, there is lots of potential for him to quarterback play from the blueline, and he’s effective when given freedom to push play offensively on his own. Tanner Molendyk is much the same, but somewhat of a higher pace offensive force, while also carrying some defensive warts. The rest of the defense group is a major question mark to me. There are big, physical players, as well as Jake Furlong, but actual defending in transition in high pace situations and effectively transporting pucks to the talented forward group is a weak point with many of these players, and that will be a common occurrence against the best teams.
The mantra of staying out of the penalty box and easing workloads on the goaltending will be imperative as it is every year. It’ll be fascinating to see how this Canadian group performs. They lack the goaltending of other teams, they lack some level of defensive depth, but the scoring potential is undeniable, and they certainly could be “hard to play against”, but there are some areas for the teams ahead to exploit and challenge.
Sweden - 13.48 NHLeS
Key Player - Jonathan Lekkerimäki (RW)
The Swedes in my view are about as talented a roster as I’ve ever seen recently in this tournament. There is a ton going on here from the frontlines, and should their goaltending keep things together, I could easily see this team getting themselves to their first gold medal game since 2018, driven by elite scoring and strong, physical and resilient depth. The key names will almost certainly revolve around an excellent trio of 2021 NHL Draft picks in Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Noah Östlund and Liam Öhgren, but Filip Bystedt will also likely factor into a diverse role. 2023 NHL Draft picks will fill in the depth well in my view, with David Edstrom, Anton Wahlberg, Otto Stenberg and Felix Unger Sörum bringing skill, pace and smarts with a bit of size to boot in Edstrom and Wahlberg. At the bottom of the lineup, Isac Born, and Zeb Forsfjäll should bring some nice physical forechecking play to eat minutes when needed.
The defense group is also very strong in multiple ways, led by confident skilled puck carriers in Axel Sandin Pellikka, Tom Willander and Mattias Hävelid, with Elias Salomonsson, Elias Pettersson, and Anton Johansson providing strong defense with length, mobility and smarts. The USA roster may carry some more depth, but Sweden should be able to hold their own against the best from front to back. The firepower is there, the ability to play hard and grind minutes is there, and if the goaltending holds strong when needed, this is a team that could easily challenge for a championship, however unlikely it seems on paper. I have a weird feeling that Melker Thelin could have a heck of a tournament, continuing a trend seen in HockeyAllsvenskan this season so far, but predicting goaltending in this tournament is a fickle and largely pointless operation.
United States - 20.06 NHLeS
Key Player - Will Smith (C)
Simply put, this team is absolutely stacked. From the net out, there is talent pretty much across the board. Physical players, skilled players, insane shooters, high-pace playmakers, they have it all. Their top six of Cutter Gauthier, Rutger McGroarty, Frank Nazar, Will Smith, Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard, Jimmy Snuggerud and Gavin Brindley is so loaded that you probably didn’t notice I mentioned nine players. That doesn’t even include players like Oliver Moore, William Whitelaw, Isaac Howard and Carey Terrance who are almost certainly going to provide supplementary offense down the lineup while playing solid defense. Oh yeah, and keep an eye out for the smart and creative playmaking of James Hagens when he hits the ice. The 2025 Draft looks pretty strong with him as part of the top group.
Speaking of defense, there’s even more to write about there. Sure there was much gnashing of teeth regarding leaving Hunter Brzustewicz at home, but when you have Lane Hutson, Seamus Casey, and Zeev Buium on the way, I think you’ll be fine for power play focused offensive creators. Sam Rinzel, Drew Fortescue, and Ryan Chesley are also likely to factor in as stabilizing talents that can get around the ice well. It’s really hard to pinpoint specific things to talk about regarding this roster outside of “they’re really really really good" and that this group has more than enough talent to waddle their way to the gold medal game and put on a show. Jacob Fowler and Trey Augustine in net is a dynamite duo that should also keep whatever pucks that get through this roster out of the net, and certainly aren’t a weak point on an otherwise outstanding roster once again.
The 2024 World Junior Championships are going to be one for the history books, I think. There are so many talented teams, and so many games could come down to a goal here or there, a save here or there, or just a darned lucky bounce at the right time. Sweden, Canada, the USA, Finland, and Slovakia are all bringing strong teams that should be able to go toe to toe with one another and crowd the podium. There are quite a few draft-eligible players I’ll have my eyes trained on as well this season, but all eyes here in North America are likely going to be on the US team alongside the usual overwhelming pressure on the Canadians. I’ll be glued to my television while out in the woods taking some time away over the holidays, and I hope you will be too. Almost every matchup could be a great one this year with plenty of insanity, highlights and surprises.
On the note of taking some time away, Scouching will be a post-quarterfinal stream on January 3, and watch-alongs for the semifinals and medal rounds so stay tuned for a finalized schedule in the coming weeks and subscribe to Scouching’s YouTube or Twitch channels. Before I go, because people love predictions, here are mine! Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you so soon! Enjoy the tournament, and please be nice to these actual teenaged humans on the internet if things don’t go the way you want them too please and thank you.
🥇USA
🥈Sweden
🥉Canada
🎀Slovakia
Tournament MVP: Cutter Gauthier
Best Forward: Cutter Gauthier
Best Defenseman: Axel Sandin Pellikka
Best Goaltender: Melker Thelin
All Star Team:
Cutter Gauthier - Will Smith - Noah Östlund
Axel Sandin Pellikka - Lane Hutson
Melker Thelin
The Return.
Well look who decided to come back… Hello and welcome to Scouching 2.0. In many ways, we’ll be back the same as ever, analyzing the NHL Draft though data-backed analysis, but in others we’re coming back better than ever! First of all, I want to welcome AJ Gidaro to the team as Producer and Social Media Manager. He’s been a supporter for years, has become a great friend, and we’ll be helping with the operation of our weekly livestreams, as well as posting more content on various social platforms for you. I’m extremely excited to work closely and seeing what we can create for you together.
On the note of live shows, we’re now expanding to two shows a week, with one on Monday nights from 8-10pm EST, and Thursday afternoons at 2-4pm EST. We’ll be having guest hosts, interviews, and Q&A sessions like we always have, but a second show earlier in the day will allow for more Europeans to tune in, as well as us Westerners being able to tune in at a different time of day. We’ll also be streaming the show to YouTube, Twitch, and X/Twitter simultaneously, so be sure to subscribe and follow us on whichever platform you prefer so you never miss a show! We will also be expanding our coverage to the NHL, and there are new data tools tracking trends that you can play with on Scouching.ca, with more coming in the future.
The data tracking for the NHL Draft continues of course, and will fuel my analysis, but specific datasets will be withheld for those who desire private consultation. If you’re a member of an organization, or just a highly devoted fan, contract work is available to provide analysis on specific players or groups of players. As such, there won’t be long-form Scouching Reports on our YouTube channel, but the draft recaps and NHL season previews will be available, with early access given to YouTube Members.
I also will take this time to announce that I’m working with PuckPreps providing content on 2006-born players from various levels in North America with a slant towards NCAA hockey, so be sure to check them out to see that content, and many thanks to the team there for welcoming me aboard!
It feels really, really good to make a return. The last eight months have been a time of opportunity, reflection, and much needed rest. I still dedicated countless hours towards gathering data for the 2023 Draft, and I’ve continued with the 2024 class. In recent weeks, restarting the Scouching project has been on my mind to interact with you all, and continue to provide more specialized work in private. If you’d like to support us directly, you can choose to subscribe with an account here on Scouching to access our Discord, data tools, a private question box and more. Other options include a subscription on YouTube to get access to blog posts early, exclusive chat emoji, priority response to comments among other perks, or a subscription on Twitch.