Recapping the 2025 World Junior Hockey Championships

Well that sure was something… The 2025 World Junior Hockey Championships are now in the books, and what a story that entire tournament was. I was extremely lucky to be in attendance for a handful of games and saw quite a few of these rosters in person, and to the folks that introduced themselves, it was a pleasure to meet you and I hope you enjoyed your experience as much as I did. I got to see a New Years Eve game, I confirmed my suspicions that the relegation game is the most underrated game of the tournament, and we were treated to some incredible results as the tournament went on. Latvia beat Canada against all odds, The Finns beat the Americans in the preliminary round, the Kazakhs very nearly shocked the Slovaks, the Latvians won again and very nearly phased Sweden out of existence in the quarterfinals, the Czechs stunned the nation of Canada for the second season in a row, the Finns broke Sweden’s heart brutally, then the Czechs made things even more miserable for them, and we were treated to an all-time classic Gold Medal final. This tournament is such a treat, to the point where it’s become a yearly staple in my non-hockey fan family’s holiday entertainment. The hockey is scrappy and messy, but with incredible talent on display with almost every country. I’m a huge proponent of international inclusion and this Russia/Belarus-free era has been fascinating to see the growth of some of these lower rated nations as they are tested against the world’s best significantly more often. In my view, there is growth coming internationally, and I would love to see this tournament expanded at some point, because for any hockey fan, this tournament is a joy regardless of who is playing. Until then we’re still getting some wonderful matches that always remind me of why I love hockey, especially at this level of play. The world of hockey is diverse and passionate, and to see that on display from numerous countries is so, so much fun.

To recap, we’ll take a look at each individual team with some thoughts I came away with, and hand out my personal awards at the end! Thanks so much for stopping by, and catch us on YouTube for Scouching Live Mondays at 8pm and Thursdays at 2pm! If you’re able, consider subscribing to the site to get some cool perks and data you won’t get anywhere else.

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Relegated - Kazakhstan
MVP - Beibarys Orazov (D)

A team I was thrilled to have been given the chance to witness live, the Kazakhs put up a significantly better effort than I and many others expected going into this tournament. Sure, they relinquished 30 goals in the preliminary round, but they pushed the Slovaks to an unexpected overtime loss on the back of two late shorthanded goals. It may have been the most miraculous loss I’ve seen in a long time. I was sitting in the second row for the relegation game against Germany, and similar to last year, this year’s instalment was a doozy. The Kazakhs were clearly outskated by the Germans, but they capitalized on their chances, played physical, selfless hockey and created as many chances as they could. The second most penalized team in the tournament, Kazakhstan paid for it when it mattered most with three goals against in what became a 4-3 loss to Germany. They were up 3-1, and their penalty kill simply couldn’t keep up with the Germans relatively relentless speed. They were a team that participated largely by committee with a handful of players stepping up and earning the bulk of the dangerous play. Kirill Lyupanov and Davlat Nurkenov stood out to me up front, but the responsible and simple defense group was what really stuck out, especially when it came to moving the puck. Beibarys Orazov was a rock as expected, but I came away thoroughly impressed with captain Aslan Zhusupbekov. He wasn’t on the scoresheet whatsoever, but he made simple stick-based defensive plays repeatedly with simple, effective breakout work that explained why he was wearing the C. It was a tough few games for these guys, but they showed well, and while I’m skeptical of seeing them back in 2027, anything is possible and we’ll have to wait and see in a year. I was ready for a shock to the hockey world from the boys in gold and blue, but it was not meant to be, and we’ll see the Danes replace this group next season.

Saved in Relegation - Germany
MVP - Julius Sumpf (C)

Honestly the Germans were the team I saw the least of any team, but having seen them in person, they seemed like a team that was almost there with potential quarterfinal upset candidates like Switzerland or Slovakia. They had names that could really move the puck, names that could play a strong physical game, and while they very nearly got themselves relegated, they also very nearly got themselves into another quarterfinal appearance. Germany is a great example of a team that just goes to show how close this tier of teams that finished from from 5ish to 10 really are these days. They kept their match against Canada close at 3-0 but I do believe people underrated just how quick and physical this group was. I came away quite impressed with the defensive smarts of Norwin Panocha, stymying quite a few difficult rushes, but the name to come away with was Julius Sumpf. I went into the tournament very intrigued by his potential after having seen him drive a ton of pace playing on a line with Caleb Desnoyers in Moncton. He was electric at times with a great combination of size, resilience, and a balance of confidence that anchored this German group well. He may very well be a candidate for the “undrafted World Junior performer who gets a late round NHL draft pick and maybe becomes a thing” award for 2025, and I would potentially be in support of that based on what I saw here and back in Moncton going in. The Germans were the 2nd youngest group here, and 11 of their players can return for 2026, so look for names like Schäfer, Lewandowski, and Händel, to be key players.

Quarterfinal Elimination - Latvia
MVP - Linards Feldbergs (G)

The youngest team in the tournament very quickly became the most notable, as they pulled off a remarkable victory over a Canadian team that struggled to find a way through Latvian mega-goaltender Linards Feldbergs. A 3.13 goals against average seems paltry, but he played every minute for Latvia, and turned away 210 shots in 5 games. He never had a workload lower than 39 shots, and very nearly pulled off a miracle against the Swedes in a 3-2 quarterfinal loss saving 47 of 50. Without him, it’s entirely possible this Latvian group faces relegation against an older Kazakh group, but they were the plucky, physical group many expected going in. Eriks Mateiko was a close runner up for team MVP as he just continuously found ways to get into scoring areas, powering through the competition and scoring 5 of Latvia’s 9 goals. While Latvia has 14 eligible returnees, Mateiko and Feldbergs are not going to be on that list, but their youth did show up well and showed strong flashes. Daniels Serkins was fast, fun and at times reckless, but pushed the puck up the ice well. Olivers Murnieks certainly made an impact and put him on my priority list for next season with the skill and finishing ability he showcased with a level of maturity and work rate not often seen from someone so young. Unfortunately for Latvia, Bruno Osmanis went down with an injury against Germany and didn’t return, but he too made a strong impact working off of the other major players well and definitely putting him on the list for me to circle back on for the 2025 NHL Draft. You can’t fault the Latvian effort whatsoever. They won their third and fourth preliminary round games ever, beating Canada and Germany, and they made a strong push to take out the Swedes much earlier than they’d like. Sure, it wasn’t always pretty and the shot totals reflect that but they were admirable as usual, never backed down to anyone, and gave a strong 60 minutes in every game. For a team this young with some impressive names among those returning, we may see the strongest Latvian result in their history at this tournament in Minnesota next season.

Quarterfinal Elimination - Switzerland
MVP - Kimo Gruber (C)

The Swiss were a team that surprised me somewhat. Largely ruling by committee, they played a fast, pace-y game that drove teams back into their zone often and generated more chances against better teams than I thought they would. They had very little in the way of consistent finishers however, but I liked Leo Braillard’s chances including his pair of goals against Sweden in their bizarre 7-5 loss, clawing back from 7-2 to make things interesting in the final half of the third period. Leon Muggli handed Slovakia a win in regulation quite literally, but I felt he had a solid tournament with his passing work and power play ability that created some necessary offence for the Swiss. Unfortunately the Swiss efforts landed them in the quarterfinals against the future champions from the USA where they were outmatched to say the least. I was thoroughly impressed with Team Scouching member Ludvig Johnson. I didn’t expect him to play as much as he did, being the second youngest defenseman on the roster, but his play on the power play rushing pucks and earning zone transitions as well as his skill level stuck out in almost every game. He earned significantly more minutes than I expected and look forward to his return next year. Jamiro Reber was the player I had my eyes trained on the most, coming back from a very strong first half in the SHL, but he was much more the Reber I remember from last year. Determined, fast, small, and drives play well but does everything but get play into scoring areas. He was largely stuck around the perimeter and while he had his moments, he was a factor into the Swiss’ inconsistency with driving offensive danger game over game. Eric Schneller was a nice surprise for me as well, and seeing what Jonah Neuenschwander was capable of in his limited ice time was interesting, and as a 15 year old, there’s plenty of development there for the future power skill winger.

The upside for the Swiss is that I believe some of their best players are eligible to return next year. Antenen, Muggli, Johnson, Sansonnens, Reber, Steiner, Neuenschwander, Kirsch, all likely coming back, and while my boy Daniil Ustinkov didn’t see the ice at all he’s likely a featured player on the team next year. I have felt Ustinkov hasn’t had quite the same pace and creativity that made him so intriguing last season, but I did think he was good enough in pretournament games to play at least a little bit over some of the other names on the roster. Time will tell, but the future for the Swiss looks somewhat solid, and maybe their first quarterfinal victory since 2019 is in the cards for 2026.

Quarterfinal Elimination - Canada
MVP - Carter George (G)

Ok, so we get to Canada way more than I thought we would be. I remain steadfast that this team was competitive, and they very nearly found their way through the muck into the semifinals, but my words in my preview continue to be true. They were talented, but they got in their own way in about every way imaginable, utilized the wrong players in the wrong roles, were undisciplined, and somehow found ways to lose games they had no business losing. There was a ridiculously panicked response from the public after the loss to Latvia, which while embarrassing, was the second game of four, and licking your wounds, getting to work, and coming together as a group was still more than possible. Did they do anything to achieve that afterwards? It doesn’t really seem so, at least not until it was too late. Yes, you can complain about the refereeing, but look at the US team. Were they in the box? Not nearly as much. The Canadians were the most penalized team in the entire tournament, spending almost 9 minutes per game shorthanded. The Czechs and Kazakhs were the only other teams over 7. That is simply unacceptable and indicative of just how far off Canada’s view of the game seems to be from where others see it today. They played slow, methodical, old school dump and chase hockey from the defense out with a balanced offensive group that had nobody who took the reins consistently. I could excuse leaving names like Yakemchuk, Cristall and Sennecke off the lineup for this tournament based on how you break things down, but on the other side, while there is a chance those players could’ve made a difference, it seemed like no matter what, Canada was in some serious trouble with this management's approach.

I was in person for the Canada/USA New Years Game with my parents. My mother has been to zero hockey games in person for almost my entire life. She leaned over to me during the game and asked questions such as “why is Canada so slow?”, “why would that Canadian guy do that and take a penalty?”, “Is America always this fast?” and plenty more. Every question warrants a 20 minute discussion at least. In my view, the floor of the rest of the world has come up significantly, and simply skating hard and pushing the Canadian team around a little bit seems to be enough to make any game competitive. To me, it is a huge advantage for athletes to have the ability to play top division pro hockey in Europe, a challenge often underrated, then to come back and play junior hockey. For Canadian athletes, they’re taking a much bigger step up in competition by going from a 60 team junior league system with an enormous breadth of talent to playing against kids playing pro hockey games, often for more than a season. I don’t blame the players for this whatsoever, but I’ve said for years that Canadian hockey players are only so dang good at this game because of the pure passion in their hearts for the sports, and the cultural accessibility of playing in an organized league. The developmental systems in place and the thinking from leadership are simply not good enough anymore for tournaments like this. I still believe many of these players will go on to have strong NHL careers over time, but I also believe that Canada is much, much closer to other nations’ best players these days, which often explains why I have some CHL players much lower on my lists than others, and many Europeans on the list that others don’t. It’s a tough position to be in, but a/b’ing the Canadian team to the US was night and day, and there needs to be some reflection.

As a final point, I will say that next season’s Canadian roster has the potential to be fantastic through all of this mess… If they want it to be. McKenna is likely back, they may have Misa, Martone and Schaefer on the roster, strong performer this year Berkly Catton is a likely returnee, and my personal MVP Carter George is also a returnee. Parekh, Iginla, and Sennecke, all ideally there as well, but 2025 prospects like Roger McQueen, Lynden Lakovic, Jackson Smith, Carter Bear and more could be strong options. Other countries like Finland and the US might be on a bit of a downslope considering what I’ve seen at younger age groups, but that’s no guarantee of anything whatsoever, especially at this tournament. Time will tell, but you have to hope that there is change from the top down, and a faith that the most skilled and talented players in the nation will find a way to come together, fill the gaps that may be there, and truly showcase the best that Canada has to offer.

Quarterfinal Elimination - Slovakia
MVP - Dalibor Dvorský (C)

A team that seemed perfectly fine, but not particularly “good”, the Slovaks were a team that trundled through the preliminary round with zero lopsided losses but zero losses where they really seemed to seriously keep things close. The win over Kazakhstan was barely earned, and their 2-1 victory over the offensively limited Swiss team kept them in a quarterfinal slot eventually losing to the silver medalists from Finland. I’m not really sure what else to say about the Slovaks, as they were quite quiet as a whole, but played a team-first game with plenty of players chipping in, usually just doing whatever it took to get the puck into the hands of Dalibor Dvorsky or Juraj Pekarcik, both of whom had quite strong showings. Dvorsky filled in the Kazakhs a bit, but his combination of strength and finishing ability were on display, and with a better supporting cast, who knows if this team could’ve pulled off a win over the Finns. Unfortunately, Dvorsky isn’t coming back, but it isn’t all lost for 2026. Tobias Tomik, Jan Chovan, and Luka Radivojevic are all certain to be back and performed solidly well in Ottawa. Names like Michal Svrcek, Tomas Chrenko, Jakub Dubravik and Adam Nemec likely on the roster should add some needed firepower for the Slovaks that might be able to make them more of a balanced threat than they were this season. It might be difficult, but they might be able to surprise quite a few.

4th Place - Sweden
MVP - Axel Sandin-Pellikka (D)

I really enjoyed watching this year’s Swedish group and felt they deserved a better fate. A heartbreaking overtime loss to the Finns put them on their back foot against the Czechs, and the offense just couldn’t find a way through Michal Hrabal, with an immense shootout not going their way. There was a huge part of me that wanted to put Tom Willander as my MVP for this team with his ability to quarterback rushes and help Sandin-Pellikka create offense, but it’s hard to argue against the offensive output and creative pass vision that Sandin-Pellikka brought every single game. This team was no joke, and I felt that Otto Stenberg, Anton Wahlberg, David Edstrom, Herman Traff, Felix Nilsson and Zeb Forsfjall were also strong performers supplementing that top pair. Victor Eklund, my #5 ranked prospect going into the World Juniors had a bit of a coming out party for many, and he was better than I expected, playing a strong two-way impact game that chipped in everywhere and finding himself among the top level of Swedish talent on this roster. I thought he was simply excellent, especially after seeing him live in their loss to Finland.

The Swedes are likely to look significantly different next year with just four eligible returnees, but there is a solid group of 2007-born Swedes that could find themselves on the team next year, with some impressive 2006-born players that could also find themselves in Minnesota. Are they going to be as good as this season’s group? I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion right now, and the goaltending is likely to be a question mark, but they should be able to make a strong impact as they did this year. It was another tough result for the Swedes, and I have plenty of empathy for the eventual result, but we saw plenty of good output from these fellas and I hope to see many of them in NHL jerseys at some point in the future.

Bronze Medal - Czechia
MVP - Eduard Sale (RW)

Never, ever, ever count out a bunch of Czechs when it comes to hockey. Ever. They broke the soul of the entire nation of Canada for the second year in a row, put up a valiant effort against a very strong group of Americans, and battled their way to a bronze medal through the talented Swedish group. I came into this tournament with the belief that outside of Canada, many, many teams were quite evenly matched and who comes out on top could’ve been a toss-up, and in a sense it was. This is the Czechs third medal in a row, something they have never achieved at this tournament. They are a scrappy, physical group who capitalizes on mistakes and takes the chances they get, keeping their game simple and calculated, and while they may not have gotten here had a coin flip gone another way here and there, they got here and earned it, and in my opinion did it by committee. Jakub Stancl scored a ton of goals, but the group as a whole all chipped in with very good performances. I was thrilled to see Adam Jiricek in this tournament and I felt for a player who has played 6 games this season, he performed very well, tying the team in defensive scoring. Team Scouching seletion Tomas Galvas was also a strong performer to me in many areas of the game, giving me more confidence relative to what I’ve seen of him in the Extraliga to this point.

It’s impossible not to hand the MVP of the team to Eduard Sale though. I’ve questioned his NHL upside in the past but you simply cannot deny how important he was to this roster at this level. He was creative in his scoring attempts, was a shootout hero, and was the beating heart of this group offensively. In his last World Junior, he cemented himself as one of the great Czechs at this level and likely goes back to the AHL with a huge boost of confidence. He’s smart, creative, and can clearly perform under pressure, and I came away thrilled to see what he was capable of while captaining this team. I also expect the Czechs to have another strong roster with Galvas, Kos, Jecho, Jiricek, Fibigr, Cihar, and Novotny all likely returning, and some impressive young players they could lean on to earn another good result next season. They were a tremendous team to watch in the truest definition of the word team. They played hard, stood down from nobody, and earned the medal they went home with. How can you not love that?

Silver Medal - Finland
MVP - Petteri Rimpinen (G)

I said before the tournament to not count out the Finns, even if I’m a bit skeptical of the trajectory of this nation in the next few years at this level. That said, it turned out to be not entirely for the reason I expected. Petteri Rimpinen was the star of the show with some serious heroics when called upon, putting aside 36 of 40 in the gold medal game against the USA, 43 of 46 to get into that game, and only facing fewer than 30 shots one time against Latvia. He was simply excellent, even in Finland’s most lopsided loss to Canada as his team seemed to have no legs in front of him, but managing to put aside 37 of 40. He certainly earned himself another look from NHL scouts in my eyes, and we’ll have to see if he hears his name called in Los Angeles in June.

On the note of Finland not having legs against Canada, after that game in my opinion, they did what Canada couldn’t seem to do: Get frickin’ moving. The Finns from their game against Germany onwards were simply unrecognizable and the most improved team over the tournament by far. They took out the Americans in the preliminary round and had them against the ropes in the Gold Medal Game. They were the epitome of ruling by committee, as I felt that nobody truly stood out offensively or defensively for the group, but they came together and everyone certainly had their moments. Topias Hynninen got better and better the more I saw him, being an excellent complimentary forward by the time the tournament was over. Konsta Helenius was an excellent play driver and line manager moving the puck extremely reliably as well. Unexpectedly, I felt Arttu Alasiurua and Tuomas Uronen were excellent for this group as well driving play with speed and pace that much of the roster lacked somewhat. This may be the last gasp of the big, physical and complimentary brand of Finnish hockey however as the younger age groups trend smaller and have been less than stellar internationally, but the returning group of Miettinen, Kiviharju, Vaisanen, Nieminen, Helenius, Hemming and of course Rimpinen among others should be more than enough to be impactful next season as well. I already can’t wait to see what kind of a revenge tour we see from this team, and I was thrilled to see that team come as far as they did over this tournament.

Gold Medal - United States
MVP - Ryan Leonard (RW)

I continuously have such admiration for the lengths that USA Hockey has taken over the course of my lifetime. This team was simply stellar almost from wire to wire. They got great performances from so many players, and while Ryan Leonard is my MVP and the actual MVP of the tournament, this group was just a joy to watch from top to bottom. Strong, simple, stable defending from their giants in front of Trey Augustine, responsible for putting the puck in the hands of any number of forwards or Cole Hutson or Zeev Buium, they provided a strong foundation to build off of. Up front, all bets were off. I felt Oliver Moore was an excellent two-way presence for the Americans with dangerous forechecking and playmaking on display. Danny Nelson was a seriously impressive player as well, coming a ways with his skating from what I remember and begin a boulder on the puck. James Hagens showcased that he deserves to be in the conversation for #1 pick overall this season with his brilliant playmaking and remarkable finishing ability. Teddy Stiga went from healthy scratch to Gold Medal winning hero, and having seen the US multiple times in person, I felt he was one of the most useful players down the lineup that simply elevates everyone else. Taking one shot in 6 games might not sound impressive, and setting aside that one shot being the Gold Medal winning goal, I felt he added plenty to the game elsewhere that I simply cannot bet against as an evaluator. Brandon Svoboda and David Carle make a great pair as well, as I felt his speed and power was utilized brilliantly, something I always felt was there when catching him with the Youngstown Phantoms.

Yes, Ryan Leonard wins my MVP, but this was close for me. He was simply a dog every single game. Powerful, intense, a wicked finisher, and clearly the spiritual backbone of the team, he was making his presence felt every single game, even if he found himself in undisciplined penalty scenarios here and there. That said, my goodness were Cole Hutson and Zeev Buium amazing here. Hutson is almost certainly coming back next season in my view, and he should be stellar. He was dynamic, shifty, and my notes from him last year being potentially more projectable than his brother, but without the same offensive upside are still fair in my view, but he just went out there and moved the puck, moved himself, and moved opponents around spectacularly. Wonderful footwork, creative routes in multiple areas of the ice, his game has come a significant ways since I first saw him a few years back. Zeev Buium was sublime as well. Silly levels of creativity, scary levels of offense, and a more refined defensive game were highlights of his performance. He was simply excellent on so many occasions, and without him and Hutson, I really don’t believe names like Perreault, Leonard, Eiserman and Ziemer have the success they had. Buium was #5 on my list last season and this tournament showcased why. I love him, he made me proud, and came home with the best hardware you could get.

The Americans likely come back again next year just as scary. I’m not sure it’s 100% that James Hagens won’t be here next year, but even if he’s NHL-bound, Cole Hutson, Cole Eiserman, Trevor Connelly, Teddy Stiga, Logan Hensler, and Brodie Ziemer are all likely returnees, with plenty of talent to choose from to bring along next year, the Americans should have another strong roster. They earned this Gold Medal through and through. They were on the ropes a bit at the end there, but they found a way to push the frustration aside and get themselves back into the game, grinding out a thrilling victory. They play fast, they play skilled, they play with many offensive options including confident skilled defenders, and they keep the game simple. It’s wonderful to watch, and their first repeat gold medal victories were well earned by this generation of players, so congratulations to them and USA Hockey.

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Will’s All-Star Team

Eriks Mateiko (LAT) - James Hagens (USA) - Ryan Leonard (USA)
Zeev Buium (USA) - Cole Hutson (USA)
Petteri Rimpinen (FIN)

MVP: Cole Hutson (USA)
”Who Dat” Player of the Tournament: Linards Feldbergs (LAT)
Biggest Surprise Performance: Danny Nelson (USA)

Scouching’s 2025 World Junior Hockey Championship Preview

Happy Holidays everyone! Now that we’ve all overeaten and had our family gatherings, it’s time to gather around the television and go nowhere for the next little while as the 2025 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship gets underway in Ottawa, Canada. It’s going to be an action-packed tournament as always, featuring some high octane talent, and as usual, we’re here with a primer to follow along with your favorite teams and players! I won’t waste anymore of your time so lets get right into previewing this year’s tournament country by country, from our lowest expected rank to our highest!

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10th - Kazakhstan - 5.29 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Vladimir Nikitin (G)

As much as I love to see upsets at this tournament, I’m not sure how much magic is in the cards for the Kazakhs this season. One of the most elite on-ice looks in hockey, Kazakhstan is making their first appearance since before the pandemic. This season, everything will come down to Ottawa Senators draft pick Vladimir NIkitin. While I found the Kazakh U18 team from this past spring entertaining and admirable, the ability of the team to push back, even in the weaker group is going to be questionable. Much of their team is coming from Astana’s MHL team who are in the bottom half of the worse division in the worse conference of Russian junior hockey. They face 40 shots a night routinely and whoever is in net this year is going to be busy, even against teams like Switzerland and Slovakia.

That having been said, I have found U18s standout Asanali Sarkenov to be a talented finisher with some good puck protection ability that, when combined with his length, makes him an intriguing player to watch this season in Spokane. I don’t expect the key players from Kazakhstan’s Division 1A tournament last season such as Davlat Nurkenov and Alexander Kim to be huge difference makers this year but in my research for this, Beibarys Orazov seems like a nice piece to have on the defensive side of the puck. He’s the only player on this roster largely playing at a professional level, and he will be one of a small handful who will be expected to carry much of the load for Kazakhstan. Is there a chance they’re saved in relegation? I would be pleasantly surprised, but I just don’t see how unless Vladimir Nikitin has a Benjamin Conz-like performance facing what is likely to be 40-50 shots on many occassions, with some serious bounces, luck, and power play time going their way.

9th - Latvia - 6.81 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Eriks Mateiko (LW/RW)

I have a soft spot for Latvia. A great look on the ice, a scrappy team with many players who grew up playing in a closely knit community at the elite level of hockey, and often bringing some of the youngest rosters in these tournaments. Latvia in Ottawa will be no different, featuring the youngest team in the tournament with 15 eligible returnees, 4 more than the next team, with 4 players in their first year of NHL Draft eligibility, 4 more who are eligible for 2026, and the only 2027 eligible player in this whole tournament according to current rosters. That 15 year old is Roberts Naudins, and he also happens to stand 6’6” tall and I’m sure will have eyes on him if he makes the roster. It’s going to be an interesting and exciting year for the Latvians with some impressive names leading the way. Do I expect this team to make serious inroads and get through a quarterfinal for the first time? No, but I think they’ll push teams harder than we think.

Likely leading the way for the Latvians is gigantic QMJHL winger Eriks Mateiko. With Saint John he has been a puck protecting beefcake who plows his way up the ice through pressure and makes plays around the net leading to an impressive 14 goal campaign to this point. He’s a powerful and strong player with some straightforward and efficient thinking that may capitalize on sleepy opponents here and there. The supporting cast is pretty solid as well, Bruno Osmanis has had his moments making plays from the perimeter in the games I’ve seen this year showcasing some creativity and vision with the puck that should help elevate others on his team. I enjoyed what I saw of Daniels Serkins at the U18s last spring as a smaller but dynamic and crafty scoring forward. Darels Uljanskis is likely Latvia’s power play quarterback with a heck of a shot from the point and some good skill application walking the blueline in the offensive zone. Olivers Murnieks and Rudolfs Berzkalns lead the way for 2026 NHL Draft eligibles, both coming from the USHL. I’m much more familiar with Murnieks to this point and the quality of his wrist shot and solid pace of play should help Latvia in a supportive role. Beyond that, I’m honestly not that familiar with a number of these players. They have a roster of players doing well at much better levels than the Kazakhs, and in my view their tournament may come down to a showdown with Germany in Group A that keeps them alive as it did last year. I don’t think this is a team that can go up against Finland, Sweden or Canada, but this is the World Juniors. You never know…

8th - Germany - 4.88 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Carlos Händel (D)

The Germans in this tournament might be a team that can surprise us in a game or two. They don’t really have any likely gamebreakers, but they have a surprising run of interesting players that might round out a decent roster, especially on the younger side of things. David Lewandowski, Carlos Händel, Maxim Schäfer and Rio Kaiser are all players I’ve had good looks of this season and while they are all unranked on my NHL Draft list, they’ve all touched the list at some point this year. Lewandowski is a well rounded player with good length on his frame, solid skill and finishing ability who leads the way on the team in my NHLeS metric. Händel isn’t far behind though as a dynamic offensive defender who likely quarterbacks the German power play, and likely does so quite well. Rio Kaiser is gigantic, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out there for a while eating some solid minutes, and while I think he lacks quite a bit of refinement, he’s got a massive frame that gets around the ice quite well and if he imposes himself physically, he may make a solid impact. Similar things can be said about his teammate Maxim Schäfer who brings size, good northbound speed and physical play. Paul Mayer, Paul Vinzens, Edwin Tropmann, and Norwin Panocha are players who we’ve seen before who have played good supplementary roles for the Germans internationally as well. German hockey is riding high after triumphing over Finland at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, but Finland’s roster this season still holds many older, big and physical talents that likely overwhelm the Germans for now. As with many teams, things could all come down to a strong goaltending performance here and there. Whoever is in the net will be busy, but I think they could find themselves in the quarterfinals, and from there, all it takes is one heroic performance and Germany might have themselves a run. Likely? No. Do I cheer for upsets? You bet.

7th - Switzerland- 9.40 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Jamiro Reber (C/LW)

Onwards we go to Germany but more gooder-er: Switzerland! I think this team quietly could make some waves this season. In a tournament that often relies on goaltending, Christian Kirsch and Elijah Neuenschwander are a talented pair who have put up solid numbers in their respective leagues and have had strong performances in the past. The team itself has more than a few names I’ve seen over the years and filed in the back of my mind as nice junior level players who have the benefit of playing in the Swiss professional hockey circuit, often considered one of the best in Europe. Don’t let the low point totals fool you, these guys are playing minutes, and those minutes are tough to produce in.

Jamiro Reber will likely be relied upon extremely heavily for Switzerland this season. He has had a huge step in production this year with HV71 in the SHL, and with his high octane approach to the game, he’s going to need to have some great performances if he’s going to help his team into the medal rounds. Dynamic, skilled, surgical and aggressive, I’ve loved Reber’s evolution this year and think he could really turn some heads considering he remains unranked by many.

My dear son Ludvig Johnson is listed on the roster as he should be. A wonderful start to his junior league season landed him in the National League faster than even I expected, and he hasn’t looked out of place there in my viewings, especially offensively. He’s skilled, but the way he uses it is so, so smart. He delays, uses his feet to change angles, works pucks off the boards with precision and accurate passes, and like Reber, I’m hopeful that he turns some heads here. Along with him on the defensive side of things is undrafted defender Daniil Ustinkov who is having another strong season in the second division of Swiss hockey down the Zürichsee with Küsnacht. Skilled, evasive, defensively intelligent and underrated offensive abilities are the name of the game with Ustinkov and while he hasn’t taken the steps I expected since last year, he’s still been a strong performer with flashes of real brilliance that I think could show very well this season in Ottawa. Don’t sleep on Vancouver Canucks prospect Basile Sansonnens either. I was pleasantly surprised to see a team take a flyer on him, and he’s raw, raw, raw in the context of the NHL Draft, but the lanky kid can definitely skate and defend. He likely eats good minutes for Switzerland this year, and rounds out a strong D+1 group of players for this team.

Further down the depth chart, I’ve liked what I’ve seen internationally of Robin Nico Antenen, Loris Wey, Leo Braillard, and Rafael Meier, and I do think this is a team that could surprise us. Lots of prospect nerds are spying 2026 Draft-eligible Lars Steiner, and while I love the speedy and agile approach to the game that he brings, I’m not quite sure if this is going to be a huge statement tournament from him. It’s a tough level of competition and battling through pressure at high speeds of play has been an issue I’ve noted in my viewings this year. Super talented player, lots of potential and I’d be happy to see him blow me away of course, but I think the older names on this roster are going to be leading the way a bit more.

6th - Slovakia - 7.70 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Daniel Alexander Jencko (C/LW)

In my view the Swiss are pushing Slovakia hard here. They have a goaltending edge with a number of options, and their skaters are loaded with strong talent at a variety of positions and roles. Luka Radivojevic is a dynamic and entertaining offensive defenseman, Maxim Strbak and Jakub Chromiak are solid two-way stabilizers, I’ve liked what I’ve seen here and there of Samuel Barcik and Adam Belusko and while I don’t think this is a medal winning group of defenders, they definitely could compete in the quarterfinals. Up front they have plenty of diverse, fun talent to watch. Miroslav Satan is gigantic and fast, Andreas Straka is smart and slippery, Juraj Pekarcik is physical and skilled, Tomas Pobezal has good finishing ability, Frantisek Dej plows through anything that moves off the puck, and while I’m not certain Slovakia will score a tremendous amount, they might be able to grind their way to victory here and there. Daniel Alexander Jencko might be a pick off the board for a player to watch, but he’s been one of the more dynamic, agile and skilled players on the ice when I caught him with Malmö and Youngstown over the years. He’s off to a good start with UMass as a freshman, and I think he might quietly be a player who makes an impact offensively for this group. Slovakia isn’t the star-studded golden generation we had a few years back, but this is a competitive roster with balance where they need it. There are players with a physical edge that could help push them through better opponents, and goaltending that has really carried them at times over the years.

5th - Czechia - 10.63 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Michael Hrabal (G)

The Czechs are coming off of eliminating the Canadians in last year’s quarterfinals in a game that they somehow found a way to win while being significantly outshot and outchanced, and I think this tournament has a chance of being a repeat performance into the medal round. There are plenty of good players to choose from on this team up and down the lineup that could go toe to toe with anyone. They’re the biggest team in the tournament, and they very well play like they are with names like Adam Jecho, Adam Zidlicky, Jakub Stancl, Jakub Dvorak and Adam Jiricek all having strong physical tools. I love the skill that some of these players bring as well, with Miroslav Holinka, Jakub Fibigr, Tomas Galvas, Ondrej Kos among others being creative, evasive players that can push opponents back on their heels. They’re a team that could have some big power play potential with how mobile and fluid some of their defenders are. I’m curious to see what Vojtech Cihar brings to the table as a productive draft eligible player who I haven’t seen as much of that I’d like. Adam Novotny is a 2026 Draft Eligible who has been impressive in every international viewing I’ve seen him in to this point as well.

The big wild card for the Czechs will be Michael Hrabal in net. He’s been quite good in the NCAA to this point, but when he’s off his game internationally, he has really been off his game. Jakub Milota is a nice alternative from what I’ve seen, but I would imagine the big, athletic Hrabal is going to be the main guy in the pipes, and while he may not face as intense a workload as the teams ranked lower, he’ll need to stand tall when called upon if this team is going to land themselves some more hardware. Could they find their third medal in a row for the first time ever? I don’t think it’s impossible, but it could be a challenge considering how tight this group of teams appears to be.

4th - Finland - 12.90 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Konsta Helenius (C)

After what was a lacklustre Hlinka Gretzky Cup, the World Juniors should go much better for the Finns in Ottawa. Their roster for this tournament plays into their natural style of play that can grind out wins so much better. They love a heavy, physical counterattacking style, working off of each other being selfless and capitalizing on chances when they get them. Julius Miettinen, Rasmus Kumpulainen, Kasper Halttunen, and Emil Hemming all bring some level of physical game to the table with some offensive pop and will be heavily relied upon players for the team. Konsta Helenius is likely to be the star of the show after a strong AHL rookie campaign to this point. He’s intelligent on both sides of the puck and at both ends of the ice, able to do pretty much everything well, especially at this level. If Finland’s offense is going to move at 5v5, it’ll likely flow through him often. My personal favorite will be Jukurit forward Topias Hynninen. He should’ve been drafted last year, and after a Summer Showcase with him on the first line, Hynninen has followed up with an excellent Liiga season. He’s aggressive, physical, resilient, competitive and has some offensive tools that should come out more often than they do. He may not be a premier name for this team at the moment, but he could be a surprise to many this year.

The fun doesn’t stop there though, as Joona Saarelainen, Aron Kiviharju, Mitja Jokinen, Daniel Nieminen and Jesse Kiiskinen are all players who bring a level of skill that should help push Finland through this tournament with supplemental offensive output. The question will be keeping the puck out of their net, as Petteri Rimpinen has been the best name on paper of the trio, but all three have been underwhelming more often than not in blue and white. Time will tell, but Finland is a medal contender in my opinion.

3rd - Sweden - 12.58 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Victor Eklund (LW)

The Swedes are a team who haven’t won this tournament in over a decade, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. Four medals since 2018 is somewhat underwhelming for a powerhouse like Sweden, but this year’s iteration could very well find themselves right back in medal contention after a silver medal effort in 2024. There are many names on here who have quietly had some very effective seasons, especially up front. Felix Nilsson has broken through at the men’s level as the energetic and skilled forward I saw a couple years back, David Edstrom is a brilliant physical tactician who moves the play up the ice well, even under physical pressure. Herman Träff is a favorite of mine, ranked in my late first round last year with his wonderful combination of skill, size and strength, and if he can put his game together consistently in the way I’ve seen him do in the past, he could be a force for Sweden. Anton Wahlberg, Tom Willander, David Granberg and Viggo Gustafsson are all players that carry size and skill as well and should be able to help Sweden play a strong possession game. The team might be a little bit light on goal scoring with Oskar Vuollet and Viktor Eklund being the main names to watch, but Otto Stenberg certainly has his scoring moments, and captain Axel Sandin-Pellikka can step up and generate offense himself.

The Swedes are a team that feels a step behind the top two in the tournament, but at least on paper, the range from 3 through 6 being quite a bit closer than I remember from prior years. The Swedes have a strong trio of goaltenders that I still believe is a smidge behind the Americans as well, so the focus for Sweden has to be strong games against Finland and Canada to ensure the easiest quarterfinal matchup possible. Czechia and Finland might be able to knock around this Swedish roster a bit, but Sweden has a pretty balanced, resilient roster that could very well go deep in this tournament. Personally, I’m optimistic with the smart, big and skilled group they have with Melker Thelin or perhaps Marcus Gidlöf in between the pipes. They’ll need to have good games when it matters in order to get through the tournament, but I have faith they’ll find a way.

2nd - United States - 17.07 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - James Hagens (C)

It’s another strong roster for the United States, but I’m not certain that they’re going to be as directly comparable to the Canadian roster as they have been in recent years. The goaltending is a clear advantage with Trey Augustine and Hampton Slukynsky having exceptional seasons to this point. There is a boatload of firepower as well, with Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard, Trevor Connelly, Cole Hutson, and Zeev Buium all bringing skill, finishing ability and creativity that can keep up with the best in the tournament. Surrounding them there are great transitional players with remarkable physical tools that could counterattack opponents extremely well. I expect an impressive showing in that regard from players like Oliver Moore, Teddy Stiga, and 2025 top rated prospect James Hagens. It’s entirely possible that Hagens becomes the star of the show, reinforcing a draft standing that seems to be on slightly shaky ground.

The States also bring a really good supporting cast of physically intense players with size and defensive talent in Drew Fortescue, Danny Nelson, Austin Burnevik, Brandon Svoboda, Colin Ralph and Adam Kleber. I’ll also be extremely interested in seeing what Logan Hensler brings to the table at this level as his NCAA freshman year has been a little bit up and down. He brings a great set of feet, covering ice well and chipping in on both sides of the puck and a strong World Junior tournament could lead to an excellent second half.

They’re a talented group that could absolutely contend for the gold medal, and there is plenty of offensive output, goaltending talent and physical defending to be had. There aren’t many holes on this roster, but Canada is loaded full of offensive weapons, and I simply can’t wait to see how things shake out. The two teams meet on New Year’s Eve, which will be a must-watch, and if they meet in the playoffs, strap in.

1st - Canada - 24.67 Avg. NHLeS

Player to Watch - Gavin McKenna (LW)

What a shocker, another year, another strong Canadian roster in the top tier of my power rankings. The Canadians are favorites, but that didn’t stop the Czechs last year, the Americans in 2021, or the Finns in 2019. They are not invincible, but they’re pretty damn good and teams can often only hope to grind them down and drag them into the muck to find a way through them. Canada is absolutely loaded with guys who can fill the net with pucks or help others fill the net with pucks. Bradly Nadeau. Berkly Catton. Brayden Yager. Calum Ritchie. Easton Cowan. Luca Pinelli. Porter Martone. Of course you have Gavin McKenna, an elite prospect for the 2026 NHL Draft leading the way in my model with 50% offensive involvement on a team scoring 4 goals per game. He’s dynamic, insanely skilled, and absolutely lethal with the puck in the offensive zone, especially as a playmaker. Matthew Schaefer, recently ranked #1 here at Scouching, is looking to have another excellent public showing as well, as he brings his rush offense and playmaking ability to what is a bit of an all-star team of offensive talent. Sawyer Mynio, Oliver Bonk and Andrew Gibson are capable defensive insulators to help out on the physical side of the equation, but don’t forget about guys like Cole Beaudoin, Tanner Howe, or Porter Martone’s capability in that area. On the note of Martone, I’ll be very curious to see how his tournament goes, as there have been concerns about the pace of his game and his ability to push opponents onto their heels enough to be an enormous difference maker in the NHL. Seeing him share the ice with Matthew Schaefer for an extended period could be a very interesting experience for us draft geeks…

As usual, Canada’s “Must Do” list in order to go deep is the same as it almost always is. They have a good group of goaltenders this year but whoever is in the net will need to perform, and discipline from the lineup will be key. In this tournament, other teams often are more than good enough to score against a Canadian team with a man in the box. They’re a great team but not “still dominant on the PK” dominant I don’t think. It seems that in recent years, overhandling the puck and taking on a lot of risk looking for more dangerous plays has burned them in the past, but Canada usually looks like a completely different team in Game 6 than Game 1, and if there are hiccups along the way for them, I would simultaneously be not surprised, but not worried whatsoever. After last season, you brush yourself off and try again, especially when that was a game that simply did not go their way. I’m so excited to see this group and how they perform, and I think we’re in for a treat.

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And there we have it! Another World Junior Hockey Championship is officially underway. I can’t wait to see what we have in store this season. There is always drama, controversy and glory to be had for every nation here regardless of expectation. It’s 95% of the reason why I love this tournament so much. I make jokes about Kazakhstan winning the whole thing, but in reality I just love seeing the hockey world expand horizons and welcome everyone to the table. The teal and gold doesn’t hurt though, and following the growth of the game globally is a real joy for me, even if they get blown out by their competition.

I hope you all have a great holiday season, however you choose to celebrate or not celebrate. At the very least, we can get cozy, flip on the TV, and watch kids chase their dreams on a massive, international stage. I have such tremendous respect for these young folks who have worked so hard to get here, and what they provide for us during their holiday season is something we may take for granted. If it were up to me, this tournament would be 32 teams and be a highlight of the hockey calendar, but I unfortunately have to live in the real world. For now though, we can grab the junk food and hot chocolate and let this play out however it may play out.

A final word of congratulations to the Danish U20 team for finding themselves in the top division for next season. They were somewhat of an unexpected victor in my books, but a well earned entry after a hard fought victory against Austria on the last day of the tournament got them to Minnesota in 2026.

Happy Holidays, and we’ll see you in 2025!

P.S: I’ll be at both semifinal games on January 4th and potentially poking around on New Years eve so if you’re in the area give me a shout! See you there!

Scouching’s Preliminary 2025 NHL Draft Ranking

Welcome one and all to Scouching’s preliminary NHL Draft rankings for the 2025 NHL Draft taking place in searing hot, sprawled out Los Angeles, California! This hockey season has been quite an interesting one as an evaluator. Reflecting on old rankings, watching players rise through the ranks and sniff professional hockey has been a valuable experience, and trying to carry any lessons forward into this season is the main goal. Of course, all while still having some fun with some players that you really would love to see at the highest levels one day, even if chances may be slim. We’re doing writeups on my first four tiers of talent this season, with full writeups on the whole list coming in June.

Before we get into the list, it might be helpful to take the time to briefly outline my philosophy so you can get in my head a little bit and understand where I come from a little better when I see the game. If you take 10 different evaluators, you’ll probably get some differences in priorities and preferences, so knowing what you’re getting into should add to the experience. At my core, I focus on possession. Hockey is a game in two fundamental states. You have the puck, or you don’t. The ultimate goal should be to find players who are as good at gaining and maintaining possession in some way, getting the puck into a desirable location, and getting the dang thing into the net as much as possible. In my view, the priority should be in that order. You can’t have the third aspect without the second, and you can’t have the second without the first. As such, I see speed, tenacity, competitiveness, and quickness as key, both mentally and physically. I don’t care so much about how big you are, how good of a shooter you are, how hard you hit, I just care about what you do on the ice and if you’re moving the needle in the right direction. In my experience, the best young needle movers with regards to competitiveness, pace, and creativity are the ones of who are often hardest to find when they grow up big and strong to be NHL players one day. I value players who elevate who they play with more than anything. They’re dependable every shift, they're focused on the ultimate task of the game situation, and they think creatively to make baby steps happen that ultimately lead to scoring chances, and ideally some goals go in here and there.

With regards to goalies, I’m no real expert there, but I’m trying. I can’t provide detailed breakdowns, but our guest Goalie Man David Phillips will be coming back to the site with his goalie ranking for the 2025 NHL Draft. For me though, I believe this is a solid year for goaltending in multiple areas. I’ve penciled in Joshua Ravensbergen, Pyotr Andreyanov, Jack Ivankovic, and Love Härenstam as top two round options worth the swing this year. Kam Hendrickson, Martin Neckar, and Roberto Leonardo Henriquez are names further down the board that could be nice pickups to stash away late.

I’ll also note that the positions listed are almost universally those from the games I’ve specifically watched and tracked of these players. A defenseman is listed by either handedness or the side of the ice they play on should it be the opposite to his natural shooting side (i.e., RSD is a left handed defender playing on the right side).

If you want to directly support our work and gain access to cool perks and our Discord server, consider a subscription plan by clicking on the button below. If not, no sweat! Enjoy the read and if you have any feedback, questions, or just want to poke and prod, drop into Scouching Live, every Monday night at 8pm EST and Thursday afternoon at 2pm EST!

Tier 1 - Which Beatle is Best?

• #1 | Matthew Schaefer | LHD | Erie Otters

  Seriously. If you ask 10 random Beatles fans, you won’t get a consistent answer. It could come down to personal preference, some weird interaction or thing one of the Beatles did that draws them to that individual, it’s just an impossible question to really answer firmly.

  With the question of who should be #1 in the 2025 NHL Draft, my mind has shifted literally in the last week after doing a swing through some of the highest rated names on my board. Schaefer missed a period of the season with mono (not fun), but every time I’ve seen him both live and on tape, he’s just gotten better and better. My last tracked game was one of the most outstanding offensive performances I’ve ever gathered for a defenseman in my many years of doing this. Schaefer has simply unbelievable potential in his game. I do have some concerns with his low mental bar of “I’m going to jump into the rush” and not keeping opposing forwards in mind which has burned him here and there. He also isn’t the most punishing physical defender, nor is he always the most intense puck retriever, at times inviting unnecessary pressure and board battles deep in his own end. All those things can be worked on, and with his youth, you can tell that there’s still a level of physical development to go in his game.

  All that aside, Schaefer is outstanding, with potential to be a terrific defenseman at even strength and on the power play. He’s explosive in a straight line, manages gaps on defensive rushes well, with strong stick checks and small area passing, and his ability to quarterback a rush through his skating ability and his pass vision is remarkable. He finds ways to sneak pucks through feet and bodies to his linemates, and these passes are crisp and pinpoint accurate far more often than not. He protects the puck well in the offensive zone and can get deep into enemy territory fending off pressure and firing pucks into the slot as if he were a forward on the ice. He simply brings such a great all-around game to the ice with flaws that are very minor in the big picture. Considering he missed key time, the improvement in his game to my eye and in my data game over game has been staggering, and while I may not have him at 1 at the end of the season, I won’t be surprised if he manages to stay here. The youth, the explosive skating, the confidence and creativity, it’s just so excellent and would bring a huge positive shift to any NHL team’s defense group

• #2 | Michael Misa | C | Saginaw Spirit

  Michael Misa has grown on me more and more as time has gone on this year. Seeing him in person a little while back in London was a total game-changer. The pace of his game has been raised from what I remember last year, but what has really been impressive is his 200 foot impact on the game. He isn’t the most physical centre you’re going to come across, but it simply does not matter. Efficiency, intelligence and refined simplicity is the name of Misa’s game, and I mean that in the most positive way I can. A quicker skater than he looks with great forechecking ability, Misa can turn almost any play into anything anywhere on the ice. Leaving him uncovered in the offensive zone, he finds ways to make himself a target and he'll make you pay in some way. He can score, but he’s just as equal a playmaking threat. He battles through pressure quite well as well, and the only real concern to me is that there isn’t particularly an “elite” trait there that could put Misa among the best in the world one day. The feel for the game and efficiency in his game certainly comes close though, and I’ve been more and more a fan of Michael Misa every single time I’ve seen him.
  
  There’s just not much Misa doesn’t bring to the table. He can gain possession of the puck well, move it himself quickly, find linemates and hit them with clean and clear passes, and once in the offensive zone, he’s lights out. Averaging a goal and an assist every game is simply an astounding achievement almost halfway through the OHL season. You don’t get there without being a well rounded, intelligent player.

• #3 | James Hagens | C | Boston College

  Hagens slots in at 3 which surprises me more than anyone, probably. He was an absolute wizard last year, showcasing speed, creativity and tremendous rush playmaking abilities. He’s somewhat undersized, but he has the confidence and pure quickness to work around it. Yes, he hasn’t scored a tremendous amount this year, but four goals in his last four games has brought his shooting percentage up to 10.6% which still trails typical values. On the other hand, my viewings of him don’t lead me to believe that he’s destined to be a consistent high end goal scorer. He struggles to get into dangerous space on and off the puck, doesn’t apply enough pressure to cause dangerous turnovers, and there is a bit of a concern about the pace of his game on a shift to shift basis. I’ve seen him explode up the ice, but not as much as I had hoped to this point, and the defensive intensity can waver.
  
  That said, Hagens is still an excellent playmaker, using skill, creativity and unpredictability to distribute the puck and find his linemates around the ice. Paired with speedy, aggressive players like Teddy Stiga seems to bring better off-puck results from Hagens, but Gabe Perreault and Ryan Leonard bring finishing ability, skill and creativity that have connected with Hagens’ profile well. I expect a strong back half, and this is an extremely close group at the top. You could argue him at 1, but considering where I recall past elite NCAA forwards in the NHL Draft, I have always come away wanting more from Hagens than names like Celebrini, Hughes, and even Power and Johnson. You see flashes, but the shining light hasn’t quite been there in my viewings.

• #4 | Porter Martone | RW | Brampton Steelheads

  Martone has been on my radar since his Toronto Jr. Canadiens days, and he’s blossomed into a tremendously balanced and talented athlete. There are so many great traits in his game that you can depend on every shift of the game. While he isn’t the fastest player out there, he’s a great defensive zone breakout instigator, finding targets and cleanly getting passes through traffic. On his line he’s a well balanced shot taker and shot creator, resulting in creating over 50% of his teams shot attempts in my sample. An excellent and efficient puck carrier through a strong combination of unpredictable skating patterns and pure strength, Martone makes up for his lower pace game by tactically marching the puck up the ice in a variety of ways.

  We came away extremely impressed with his read of his own game and understanding of his place on a hockey team as a leader and offensive cornerstone in our Game Tape episode on him as well. It was pretty clear after our interview why he’s a captain at this age, and how his team has found itself so successful this season with him at the helm. The combination of smarts, skill, power, and finishing ability are tantalizing. The concerns about the pure pace of his game are evident, as he can have gaps closed too quickly without the elite quickness or skill level to evade those forechecks, and he can often make the first play possible in the offensive zone rather than a better one, leading to worse shot selection and slot pass attempts than you would like, but long term I think the future is extremely bright for Martone. Is he a major NHL line driver one day? Probably not, which keeps him lower in my top tier, but he’s about as talented a supporting player can be. Strength, confidence, personality, skill, passing ability, there’s so much to love about Martone’s game that with the right surroundings, he could have a heck of a career ahead of him.

Tier 2 - Just Some Dang Good Hockey Players

• #5 | Victor Eklund | LW | Djurgårdens IF

  Let me start off by saying this tier, especially in the first few slots, is exceptionally close. I labored over this range for a very, very long time but at the end of the day, very few players this year have wowed me like Victor Eklund has. While not as creative or evasive in tough board situations as his brother William, he is much more of a pure, high octane, high pace northbound winger that I think could project to the NHL quicker than William did. He’s aggressive, physical at times, with great reads on his forechecks and continuously moving the puck in the right direction. His possession numbers are spectacular to this point, largely driven through miniscule rates of dangerous shot attempts against, which he certainly factors into with his high pace and relentless energy off the puck in multiple areas of the ice. He has a shot that can clearly beat pro level goaltending in Sweden, but I’d like to see him limit his perimeter chances a bit more and try to gain some better positioning, but he’s a slender 18 year old playing at a high level, so some forgiveness needs to be considered on that.

  In a year where there aren’t a ton of joy-inducing hockey players, he’s definitely one of them. A tremendous puck carrier with speed, skill and deception in full stride, with excellent off-puck results, a great shot to rely on, and some serious offensive potential as a playmaker here and there, Eklund has quickly become one of my favorites this year. I’m not sure of where his ceiling is as an NHLer and I think his size and possession-heavy positive results might hold him back somewhat which puts him in this tier. That said, he spent stretches in that top tier. Would I consider him for first overall? Probably not. Would I consider him over Porter Martone? It’s closer, but still, probably not. 5th overall? I couldn’t see myself seriously considering someone else… but again, it’s close.

• #6 | Jackson Smith | LHD | Tri-City Americans

  I get into long, drawn out conversations about this player but I always come back to the same adage once the words die down.

  “I lllllllllike him.”

  In my experience, Jackson Smith is a rare type of player in a draft class. Where a player like Dmitri Simashev brought a remarkable combination of size, mobility, physicality and simple pass vision, Smith brings a much more exciting combination of insane skating fluidity, a high-end skill level for a big man, and a punishing physical defensive style of play that may need some refinement, but really endears itself to you quickly. He absolutely deconstructed an NTDP player in the first shift of the CHL USA Prospects Challenge in London while strongly quarterbacking a breakout with his shifty footwork and clear vision of the ice in front of him and was a physical presence in both games.

  He is often maligned for his decisionmaking and hockey sense, but in my experience this season, I believe this has been significantly more under control since the Hlinka Gretzky tournament in August. His breakouts with Tri-City are often not completed on the other end very well, which makes his results look worse than they should be in my data. Needless tips into the offensive zone that are turned over, pucks bouncing off sticks like the eggs in that drill in The Mighty Ducks movie, and plenty of other somewhat frustrating events fuel some less than ideal results for Smith in my work. This is why I do what I do though, because I don’t believe what I’m tracking. He relies on passing so much there, but I’ve seen his abilities as a carrier and primary rush quarterback, and when playing with elite linemates against the NTDP, Smith seemed much more comfortable and drove the puck up the ice well.

  In my work, he hasn’t lost a carried puck transition, but he doesn’t try it much. He can overcommit on defensive rushes looking for a big hit and get left behind or outmuscled, but strength will come in time, and the willingness is there in spades. That said, his actual defensive metrics are excellent, facing a massive workload of defensive zone cycles that he breaks up often, with a surprisingly high number of offensive zone turnovers generated with plenty of hits to gawk at.

  He brings so much to the game that NHL teams covet. Sure there are some issues to be worked out, but I’m not convinced things are all that bad, and with time, Smith could become a devastating physical threat in the NHL with skill, offensive creativity and confidence that should be nurtured carefully.

• #7 | Cullen Potter | C | Arizona St. University

  Supposedly this is the first somewhat hot take according to my ranking tracking of others, but I feel very good about this one. Cullen Potter is one of, if not the most exciting and curious players in this entire class. I’m stunned at how people simultaneously are questioning his hockey sense or physical game when from what I can gather, this is a 17 year old college freshman playing pretty strong minutes at the centre position when he’s still listed as a winger everywhere I look. That’s a tough job and every single game I see, Potter looks more and more and more comfortable. My last viewing, I bumped him a slot or two, but there was a little Palpatine-like voice telling me to put him in the top group because of how much this guy could bring to the game. He’s an absolutely electrifying combination of speed and skill unlike many, many others in this draft class, let alone this tier. His passes at times are hard with pinpoint accuracy all over the ice. He’s taken or set up 63% of ASU’s shot attempts in my sample and I find that much of his lack of production seems to stem from some poor shot selection in the OZ, but also linemates that just don’t have the same creativity or pace in their game that seems to hold Potter back somewhat.

  He’s fast as heck, he commands possession of the puck, he forechecks extremely well, and he’s had some unbelievable highlight moments here and there. I could easily see Potter continue to gain momentum as he gets more and more comfortable in a tough level of competition, but the game I just tracked of his against a little school called Minnesota-Duluth was by far his most impressive of the season. He’s a wizard with the last name Potter. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

  I’ll leave you with a thought experiment. How would Logan Cooley have looked if he were playing 3rd line for the University of Minnesota instead of first line with the NTDP a few years ago? I get the feeling Cooley might not have looked like a tremendous and productive player at that level at that time. The NTDP just hasn’t looked the same without Potter, but I think it’s admirable that he’s challenged himself in the NCAA so quickly, and that ASU has obliged him. It’s a fun place to play hockey, a fun program, and Potter is a fun player. There’s lots to love, even if there’s a bit of a ways to go, but I think he deserves to be right up here with these names.

• #8 | Carter Bear | LW | Everett Silvertips

  A player I loved while watching him in the offseason, Bear has really blossomed into an impressive, well rounded complimentary offensive player. Decently efficient in offensive transitions, Bear really comes alive off the puck or in the offensive zone. A physical force, he’s throwing hits more than many this year, but he has some moments of electrifying skill and finish that are just as exciting as some of the names ahead of him. A player who has slowly worked his way up my board as I’ve preferred him over others one slot at a time, but a player I’ve never stopped to think I’m overvaluing. In this class, Bear is an imposing player with talent on both sides of the puck. If he can be a bit more of a contributor through scoring area playmaking at 5v5 and work through pressure to battle for more scoring chances for others, then the sky’s the limit for Bear. He brings so much that you just want and need in the NHL: Size, a willingness to use it, skill, shot quality, raw power, and a great natural motor and flow to his game. I may be swayed to take a few names after him instead, but it’ll take some serious discussion considering how projectable I feel his game is.

• #9 | Lynden Lakovic | W | Moose Jaw Warriors

  Another player I enjoyed watching in the summer before this season got going but it didn’t take long for me to go “oh this guy is for real for real”. Lakovic is a shot-driven analytical machine, and I love how he plays the game. Tactical, surgical, calm and creative, Lakovic drives some of the best shooting metrics I’ve seen this year, rarely wasting an opportunity, doing an excellent job protecting the puck and keeping defenders guessing, while circling like a shark looking for pathways into better scoring areas. He has playmaking flashes in these situations that I’d love to see explored a bit more, but at the end of the day, Lakovic is an excellent all-around talent that, while not a physical big man, is a resilient one with some great length in his skating stride and some great ability to generate separation from defenders and gain advantageous positioning. Of all the shot attempts Moose Jaw has taken with him on the ice in my small-ish sample, he’s responsible for 58% of them. 29% of all of their total attempts are Lakovic taking dangerous chances. If you’re unfamiliar, that’s really really good.

  I’d love to see a bit more imposition defensively, and that playmaking vision and willingness could be a bit more apparent, but Lakovic seems like a great complimentary forward with strong possession and finishing capability.

• #10 | Eric Nilson | C | Djurgården IF

  Let me get this out of the way: I am aware that this one is somewhat irrational, but hear me out.

  When I watched Orebro’s junior team last year, the name that stuck out most often to me? Eric Nilson. When I watched Sweden in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, who was the name I was jotting down the most that wasn’t Ivar Stenberg? Eric Nilson. Should he have had like, 7 points before that 4 point bronze medal performance? I think so. Sure, he hasn’t been shooting the lights out with Djurgården’s insane U20 team, but he’s such a great play driver there going both directions that he’s impossible for me to ignore. He’s a work in progress though, slender while trying to play a bigger game at times, and can overhandle the puck with a bit too much confidence and turn things over, but you stash this guy in Sweden for a few years and I think you could have an excellent 200-foot centre that elevates his wingers. I tracked a game of his in HockeyAllsvenskan and while there were issues, I didn’t think he looked out of place there, and of all the higher scoring players on his U20 team, he’s the only one to land a point in HockeyAllsvenskan this year so far. That doesn’t mean much in the big picture, but it feeds my hype machine, so I can’t not bring it up.

  In all seriousness, he’s just a player that drives the game in the right direction at a strong pace of play in basically every situation. I keep watching him and looking for reasons to put others ahead of him, and I just can’t find them. He’s not perfect, and I’m decently sure he’ll be lower on the board in the future, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to gain momentum this year, and long term, I think he could be a massive steal considering where people have him at the moment… which is not on a draft board.

• #11 | Roger McQueen | C | Brandon Wheat Kings

  Roger McQueen has been a tough read for me. Some love him. My talks with NHL teams leave me in a place where I can’t counter them with the “it’s the potential of his game” angle. If you think that in the future he’ll catch up and be better than the majority of players in this class, that’s fine, but every time I see him, I see a player who has quite a ways to go to catch up in that regard. He’s huge, and in the offensive zone he’s aggressive with flashes of really great skill, but his ability to quarterback a rush is mixed, with awful passing results and mediocre carrying ability for a top pick. His shot differentials were not good at 5v5, he wasn’t creating a ton of opportunity for others in the offensive zone, and his defensive involvement and results in transition have not been promising. He’s huge, but doesn’t play big enough as often as I expect, and he strikes me as a player who has been bigger than his competition and working off the natural advantages that gives him. More natural strength on the boards, more natural puck protection ability, longer reach to puck off passes and poke at loose pucks, but there just hasn’t been much… jam… in his game whenever I’ve seen him.

  I must say that natural centres his size don’t come along often, and he does flash some serious upside, but I’ve been burned hoping players will capture those isolated moments and bring them more often in the future before. He’s very nearly a 2024 draft eligible, and I always ask “if you drafted Roger McQueen 5th overall in 2024, do you feel like his D+1 season would be promising enough to make that pick worth it?” To me, injury aside, there were many, many 2024 prospects that I’ve enjoyed following up on this year that show better than McQueen has in my viewings. He’s still a great prospect, but to me he’s a mystery box and the NHL might be a bigger uphill battle than I think some are letting on, but McQueen has all the tools and natural traits in place to handle it. Around here is where I’d take the plunge and be very, very cautious with his progression, because I believe the longer he takes to get comfortable and physically dominate a level of hockey the better. The skating and speed looks much more comfortable and consistent this year than last, but I just see an unrefined player with a bit of a relaxed approach to the game in too many areas for me to value him as much as others, and the data reflects much of that to this point.

• #12 | Cameron Schmidt | RW | Vancouver Giants

  I want Schmidt to be a thing so badly. I was talking to people at the CHL USA Prospects challenge and they often were asking “Is he Cole Caufield though? Is he Alex DeBrincat? Logan Stankoven? Is he on that level to break through at his size?” For me, pardon my French, he’s Cameron Flipping Schmidt. The issue is that often times all he does is shoot the puck, even when it isn’t necessary. He’s small which can take him out of being an option in transition too much but holy god damn as a 3rd guy on a line that can score goals with flashes of playmaking that I desperately want to see explored more, Schmidt is electrifying. He’s lightning quick on his feet, his skill level is high end, the pace of his game is often breakneck, but honestly what I love the most is the pure confidence and emotion in his game. It can burn him at times and it’s already turned off a few behind the scenes, but our experience with him on Game Tape really sold us on what he brings as a person. He seems unlike many other traditional players out there, and I absolutely adore his passion and intensity on the ice. He doesn’t let anyone make him feel his size, he mixes things up, and gets in your face.

  He’s just so, so much fun to watch when he’s really cooking. Can he do it in the NHL one day? I’m optimistic and in the right environment he could get there. The shot is bonkers, but learning to bait with it and make plays more often, while getting stronger on his feet could make him a dangerous, dangerous offensive player with a physical and psychological edge unlike many other smaller players we’ve seen break into the NHL lately.

• #13 | Benjamin Kindel | C | Calgary Hitmen

  Another hot take, but I don’t care. I know of at least a handful of NHL people who feel the same. Ben Kindel rocks, and I’m almost positive more people will have him higher and higher as time goes on. His data profile in my sample is staggeringly good. An absolute master at seeing the ice and quarterbacking possession through all three zones, Kindel reads offensive zone situations like they were children’s books. Sure he isn’t flattening guys everywhere but who cares about that if you don’t need to? His stick checks and ability to pick off sleepy opponents is outrageous. He quickly turns turnovers into scoring chances and has such an absurdly clear map of his linemates location that basically all he does almost all game long is cook, and cook, and cook. Over and over and over he’s just doing stuff that moves the game in the right direction and doing it an unexpectedly high pace relative to what I remember coming into this season.

  I was primed to have Kindel lower, and he was a lower priority coming into the season, but I’ve been blown away with what he’s brought to Calgary this year as a top centre. His possession numbers? Bonkers. His offensive transition game? Bonkers. His passing game? Huge volumes, great completion rates. The only real weakness in his game is not being too involved in defensive transitions and lacking true gamebreaking speed to be involved everywhere all the time but what are we doing here, looking for perfect hockey players? Kindel has still been pretty darn close regardless, at least on paper. I love him, I look forward to every viewing, and he’s must-watch hockey for any analyst who wants to see someone making excellent reads, creating secondary options, making life easier for everyone, and just going out there and getting the job done. Honestly there was a part of me that wanted him as high as 9 or 10 this year, but we’ll have to wait and see for now…

• #14 | Anton Frondell | F | Djurgården IF

  Frondell hasn’t looked amazing this year, but he’s been injured a lot. He’s a hulking possession-heavy player with some great resilience and low-pace skill, and I mean that positively. You could be all over him and he’ll find a way through you with some great skill and creativity, and Frondell has seemed better every time I’ve seen him this season. HockeyAllsvenskan went from a total non-option earlier in the year, to a valid testing ground for him. I still don’t have a great read on him at this point and I’m not comfortable with where I have him at this point. I do believe he belongs in this tier for now, but projects as a bit less exciting as the names ahead of him right now. In a good way, Frondell keeps his game simple, precise, and creative which I think is a good combination, and I could easily see him bumped up a few slots.

Tier 3 - 15 Neat Guys

• #15 | Radim Mrtka | RHD | HC Oceláři Třinec/Seattle Thunderbirds

  “Who made the egg salad sandwiches? They’re better than the tuna and the cheese?” starts off this tier. To make sense of that, Radim Mrtka makes really good egg salad out there. You can just see it in the way he plays with the puck. He’s lanky, but skilled, mobile and creative on both sides of the puck. Great defensive involvement at the men’s level in my dataset with excellent results, I find that the poor possession results for him largely don’t come down to being his fault. Moving to Seattle is the right call, and I haven’t seen him there yet, but I’m excited to see him in a huge role there. He keeps his game simple but calculated and effective with flashes of some wild moments working off his skating edges in the offensive zone with good shot generation ability for a defenseman. He uses his length to his advantage well, closing gaps and getting to loose pucks, Mrtka has grown on me with every viewing. He might go a bit later than this, but he’s got a really strong ceiling as a possession driver with his skating and skill combination.

• #16 | Braeden Cootes | C | Seattle Thunderbirds

  Yeehaw it’s time to party, here comes Braeden Cootes through the doors. Absolutely electrifying, Cootes is skilled, deceptive and aggressive on both sides of the puck. He’s an Alex Newhook-like driver of possession with strong puck distribution with perhaps some limited finishing ability of his own on a consistent basis, but he could certainly develop that over time. He can get knocked off pucks here and there, but he’s relentless with his energy, driving great metrics with regards to generating turnovers at both ends, and getting involved transporting the puck, usually in the right direction. I could see Cootes being higher on my board down the road, especially considering I have names like Eric Nilson a tier ahead who brings many similar qualities, but I just have a bit more skepticism that Cootes translates as-is. I’d be thrilled to be wrong though, as he’s an exciting player with great upside and a fun factor that fans will love immediately.

• #17 | Cole Reschny | C | Victoria Royals

  I’m up and down on Reschny, especially after loving so much about Ben Kindel’s game to this point. Reschny plays a bit smaller and invites more pressure into his zone of influence, often struggling to get away with it, but he does work his tail off to do so. He’s creative, even under pressure, reads the ice extremely well and has been an offensive zone wizard every time I’ve seen him. He’s more physical than you’d expect, but my whole analysis of him revolves around projectability. Is he going to be a 2nd line centre in the NHL at his size and speed/agility level? I am not convinced. Do I want players like him to figure it out? Absolutely. He’s creative, clever, confident, and a well rounded offensive creator with a great mind for the game. It’s just a question of how far he can take things from here without some significant improvement to his ability to separate from pressure rather than often absorbing it.

• #18 | Shane Vansaghi | RW | Michigan State Spartans

  If you want to talk about most improved players over this season, I’m not sure Shane Vansaghi has that many contenders in my mind. The first game I saw of him this year, he was just running around crushing anything that moved and turning over the puck on every possession. The next one? He was a monster. Hulking but skilled, Vansaghi looked significantly more comfortable with the pace of the NCAA game and comfortable with possession of the puck, making clean crisp passes, and driving the puck up the ice like a free running Bison on the plains of Wyoming. He had some insane moments navigating through pressure, grinding his way to the net and generating chance after chance for everyone on the ice. He throws his body into every check and I think projects perfectly as a complimentary power winger in the NHL. I don’t know if he’s some kind of elite top line monster, but he’s an effective contributor that has caught my eye more and more, and just worked his way up my list as a player I could easily see getting eyebrows raised in the stands here and there.

• #19 | Malcolm Spence | LW | Erie Otters

  Spence is eerily similar to Vansaghi, but I think he sees the ice a little bit better, executes plays a bit quicker, and takes the chances he sees ahead of him more reliably. He’s less physical, and I think a little slower than Vansaghi, but they could fit similar roles once the NHL hits. Complimentary, strong, resilient physical forwards with some great moments in isolation and solid production to go along with it. Spence is a player who, in my experience, seems a bit quiet but effective nonetheless, then pops in the offensive zone a couple times a game generating some excellent chances, landing points on the board. Is his NHL upside huge? I’m not totally sold, but I can’t see how he doesn’t make it in some capacity.

• #20 | Jake O'Brien | C | Brantford Bulldogs

  Another player who I think has taken steps since the start of the year, especially after a strong rookie year on paper that left me a bit skeptical. O’Brien is a skilled tactician, seeing the ice well, utilizing linemates efficiently, working off the puck to get into scoring areas for consistent scoring chances, and some great metrics when it comes to generating turnovers at both ends of the ice. I’m still a little bit underwhelmed by O’Brien’s ceiling and potential, but he’s smart enough, quick enough, effective enough and big enough to carve out a role somewhere, and I have all the time in the world for him to be higher on this board if he continues to take steps in the right direction in the next few months. I’d like to see a bit more deception and skill in transition, and a little bit more gas in the engine through the neutral zone defensively, but all in all, he’s fine, checks a lot of boxes, and has some good developmental potential ahead of him.

• #21 | L.J. Mooney | RW | U.S. National U18 Team

  If Emperor Palpatine had The Tragedy of Darth Plagueis the Wise, I may be writing The Tragedy of L.J. Mooney the Bonkers in a few years. Mooney is right up my alley and I simply adore him. A tragic injury in an NCAA exhibition match put him out for a long period of time, and he simply didn’t look the same at the CHL USA Prospects Challenge. I saw him taping his stick pregame with a pretty serious knee wrap, and with a bit of a limp, my expectations for an electrifying comeback were somewhat dashed. He did manage to land a point, assisting on his team’s only goal in London, but he seemed slower, less agile, and less… Mooney-ish than I remember.

  At the U18s last year as the only ‘07, he looked spectacular. Compact but speedy, skilled, with a nasty set of hands, a ludicrous wrist shot release, and pinpoint passing that just makes you make noise when you watch him. His start to the season was slow, often struggling to gain separation and trying to do a ton of work himself, but the intensity was there. He was playing physically, which he’ll need to do in the future as a little guy, and he may just be a great college player, but he’s a guy I want to believe in. How he skates, how he moves the puck, shoots the puck, evades opponents, sets up plays, when it’s clicking, he’s among the best in the draft. I’m still optimistic, but I’ll be keeping a close eye this year for better or worse.

• #22 | Bill Zonnon | C | Rouyn-Noranda Huskies

  Another player who just keeps climbing and climbing as I watch him relative to others in this class. I adore Zonnon and what he could be. He’s smart on the puck with his routes and possession skills, aggressive off of it, a relentless forechecker, and a really good puck distributor in multiple areas of the ice. I haven’t seen much of where his offense comes from in the games I’ve tracked, but he’s driving shot assists at a decent rate. I just want him to get to scoring areas more and power his way to the net, because you can just tell that he’s capable of it. I think he needs to push his horizons a bit more and seize more opportunity for himself because he’s simply a joy to watch, admirable as he gets up and down the ice and chips in like a good big rangy centre should. His data isn’t as good as his rank indicates, and I may be too high on him, but I think there’s a great pathway ahead for Zonnon and the growth in his game since last year can’t be ignored.

• #23 | Arvid Drott | RW | Djurgårdens IF J20

  Sure, Drott hasn’t had amazing international appearances this year, but this guy has been a monster back in Sweden. He’s faster and more skilled than he was last season, and is extremely young for this draft class. He’s generating an obscene amount of scoring chances for himself, with a great ability to pick and choose when to pass pucks and defer to linemates. He powers through pressure, battles in front of the net for tips, but has a strong shot release that also can put goals on the board. He’s a diverse brand of scorer but his puck carrying ability is second-to-none. Catching pucks in stride, establishing possession across bluelines, and trying to mix things up off the puck in transition to mixed results is at very least an admirable combination of traits. He’s been high on my board since the summer, and I haven’t seen a ton of reasons to bump him down too far. The potential as a complimentary offensive piece with great transition and finishing ability is there, and he has worked off of Nilson as a linemate spectacularly well in my viewings. Similar to Nilson, you leave this player in Sweden indefinitely and let them develop wherever they might be.

• #24 | Cameron Reid | LHD | Kitchener Rangers

  I’m so up and down on Reid this year. Some moments with the puck are excellent, exploding up the ice, exploiting seams and tripping up forecheckers, hitting linemates with clean passes in multiple zones, he brings a ton to the table and oozes potential with his mobility and pass-based offensive game. He’s a northbound player, somewhat of a “Matthew Schaefer if you can’t draft Matthew Schaefer” kind of guy. Great northbound puck mover with flashes of offensive potential, but he’s extremely shot-heavy in my sample with regards to generating offense, which makes it hard to project him. I find his defensive game to be quite hit or miss, lacking the strength and momentum to pursue puck carriers laterally or around the boards, but that’s not uncommon for players this age. There’s tons of potential to play with though, and I think Reid could develop into a capable NHL defenseman that chips in positively in a number of areas, especially offensively.

• #25 | Blake Fiddler | RHD | Edmonton Oil Kings

  I could easily see Fiddler gone by 25, and I do genuinely enjoy what he brings to the game. He’s been as high as 14 on my list in the past, bringing defensive smarts and capable puck carrying ability. He’s calm, with crisp passing work getting out of the defensive zone, and there have been some moments of really impressive puck rushing ability, navigating through traffic and driving some high danger chances of his own. He’s a pretty laid back player that lets the game often come to him, but he’s got his fair share of explosive moments. He’s often a dependable rock to have behind your forwards that brings size, simple pass vision, and strong defensive instincts that should project to the NHL just fine. Is he the most exciting option? No, but he’s effective, efficient, and shows capability for some offensive creation that could be explored in the future.

• #26 | Caleb Desnoyers | C | Moncton Wildcats

  I still am having trouble figuring out Desnoyers and what to think of him. He’s clearly a highly intelligent pivot in the middle of the ice. He times passes well, moves the puck carefully, reads play off the puck and causes turnovers well. Overall, his analytical profile is… fine. Nothing particularly amazing, but nothing to really be concerned about. He’s a physical centre who has a bit of a lower pace of play, and he may project as a smart, possession oriented pressure absorbing centre with a physical edge, but I just feel there are a few players who have the potential to play roles in the NHL that are harder to find, even if there may be a bit more risk in their games than Desnoyers. This is an extremely close group, so the stable, physical game that he brings could easily sway me to take a look at him in the mid teens.

• #27 | Justin Carbonneau | RW | Blainville-Boisbriand Armada

  On the flipside of Desnoyers, we’ve got Justin Carbonneau. One on one, he’s remarkably skilled and determined, battling through pressure and fighting for possession well. He’s had some really impressive moments in games I’ve seen and tracked, I just find the consistency of his game to be all over the place, with very little in the way of chipping in defensively as often as others in this group. He’s a high talent, high ceiling player who is filling in a lower quality of competition with his skill and determination. He brings a solid individual shot-heavy offensive brand that could augment an NHL system well in the future with some good linemates that can get him the puck at higher levels.

• #28 | Logan Hensler | RHD | University of Wisconsin Badgers

  I’ve seen Hensler quite a lot over the last two seasons and I think he belongs in this tier, but I’m more hesitant on him than I thought I would be coming into the season. There are some really impressive moments coming from him with his playmaking in the offensive zone. Smart, tactically sound defending that keeps things simple. He has more than enough speed to close gaps, get to loose pucks, and find options to turn play around. I still just don’t know what I see in Hensler. He gets plenty of puck touches and clearly a bunch of Wisconsin’s rushes flow through him somehow, but results have been mixed outside of defensive rushes. He’s big, physical, decently mobile, and could be a nice dependable two way NHL defenseman, but I’m still early in my analysis of Hensler as he is. I’ve got time for him to be higher as the year goes on, but not much time for him to be lower than here as of today.

• #29 | Milton Gästrin | C | MoDo Hockey J20

  One of the unheralded Swedes this year, Gästrin has been impressive with some insane data points that he’s put up this year wth MoDo. He’s landed a couple minutes of SHL time where he looked physically outmatched and behind the play, but as a rush quarterback, capable of driving the puck up the ice with control, there are not many forwards in this draft class that have been better. He needs to gain a bit more resilience and determination to get to better scoring areas, and the shot selection leaves a lot to be desired. That said, his offensive threat generation in my work has been spectacular, with ridiculous amounts of slot passing and offensive creation through the middle of the ice. He needs more physical jam, but the speed, skill and raw playmaking ability is a great combination that could take him a long way in his future. In some areas, his analytical profile is top of the class, in others he most definitely isn’t. Another player you stash in Sweden indefinitely and let him raise the bar one level at a time, and hopefully he’ll find himself a middle six offensive NHL centre one day.

Tier 4 - The Supporting Cast and Big Swings

• #30 | Adam Benák | C | Youngstown Phantoms

  I’m frankly surprised that we find Benak this low on the list, but here we are. A spectacular junior career in Czechia and internationally led to a surprising move to the fun-loving, fast paced Youngstown Phantoms of the USHL. Clearly a highly agile and skilled player, slotting in as a centre with Youngstown has been a challenge. His data in my work is adequate, but very heavily leaning towards his ability to find his spots off the puck in scoring areas and getting quick strike opportunities. There’s a lot of volume shooting here from Youngstown as a whole, and Benak has been keeping things to the perimeter a lot more than I’d like, but following up with more dangerous chances off the puck. In transition he often struggles to wrestle free of pressure and remove himself from defenders at times, lowering involvement but he’s an extremely efficient player, through the neutral zone with great stick checks defensively and clean offensive movement using his skill and agility in conjunction to snake through the neutral zone.
  
  I believe his play has improved since starting the year in Youngstown, but my expectation was that he would be an offensively dominant player and potentially cement himself as one of the next elite skilled forwards in the NHL, but he just hasn’t gotten there. He’s under a point a game, a net negative goal differential player relative to his team at even strength, and 14th in the USHL in point production per game. I seem to be more optimistic than many, and I believe that over time, shifting him to the wing could be a welcome change, allowing him to have a little more offensive freedom and lean into the skill and pace in his game. He’s small, but works hard, and while agile, I wouldn’t call him fast. To me, that puts him in the “really talented player worth taking a flyer on” tier, but right at the top of that group. A strong international season could put him back on the radar, but some of the holes in his game have been exposed in a tougher physical environment in the USHL.

• #31 | Topias Hynninen | LW/C | Jukurit

  I don’t know, around this point in this draft, you really have to ask yourself “who do you just like the most” and I’m starting to think about re-entries this early. To me, none that I’ve circled back on from last season have been as impressive as Topias Hynninen of Liiga’s last place Jukurit. They stink. Hynninen sits second in team scoring at time of writing, riding a 10 game stretch with 14 points, and is one of just four regular players on Jukurit above an even goal differential. The other three have combined for 11 points this year. He’s been on the first line for the Finnish junior team this season when I’ve caught them, and he’s been productive there as well. At the very, very least someone should have taken a flyer on this player last season.
  
  Hynninen has driven great metrics pretty much everywhere except deep in the offensive zone. He’s a clever and accurate passer, an aggressive and pesky defender on the rush, an aggressive and hard working forechecker, and while I’m certain there’s a wicked shot release there that could be a power play threat, he still seems to struggle to establish positioning in the offensive zone and have the puck fed to him for those chances reliably. He looks a step quicker than last year, a bit hungrier for the puck, and I think that in an environment that isn’t a last place team in the league, Hynninen could be even more productive. I don’t see an elite skilled big point producing NHL player here, but a really respectable, aggressive forechecking winger with some underrealized finishing ability, there could be something there still. He’s having a great year, and I’m hopeful his recent surge in offense continues through the World Juniors and into the back third of the Liiga season.

• #32 | William Belle | RW | U.S. National U18 Team

  This is around the range of the draft where if you get anything, you’ve made a good pick. In that sense, Belle is a guy that I can’t see not at least cracking the NHL somehow after a bit of time. He’s huge, hulking, and learning to use his physical tools more and more every time I see him. I had the thought experiment of swapping him and Brady Martin in the CHL USA Prospects Challenge. To me, Belle is faster, has better skill at that speed, and in my tracking, takes more shots from better scoring areas and looks shockingly similar in many other areas of my data. I feel like Belle is only scratching the surface of his capabilities and has taken a big jump in productivity since last year. As a bottom six NHL crasher and banger who can wow you on the rush at times with some soft puck touches, Belle is a guy who is often quiet when I see him, but then pops for some really impressive moments that I hope to see more of in the future. A bit more puck settling ability and a little bit better pass execution to others in transition, and I think the potential for Belle only grows from here. Leave him at Notre Dame for a few years, just work on… everything a little bit, and boom. I think you’ve got a great power winger to fill your lineup with.

• #33 | Zeb Lindgren | LHD/RSD | Skellefteå AIK

  This one is pretty simple. I see a pretty mobile, safe and dependable defender with some flashes of skill that can be built on. His play with the men’s team didn’t put him out of place at all, driving great possession and passing results. Skelleftea’s junior club is a relative embarrassment with just 5 wins this year and every game I’ve seen looks like they actively wish they’d be doing anything else. Klingsell, Nordlund, and Lindgren have all been extremely underwhelming there which is concerning in my view. That said, Lindgren could very well just be a player good enough to play men, and is biding his time until he gets a bigger role there. I know what I’ve seen, and he’ll likely go later than he should, but he’s a weird case study this season. Safe, mobile, dependable and smart at his best, there isn’t a huge ceiling for Lindgren I don’t think, but I think there’s a solid floor there.

• #34 | Jamiro Reber | C | HV71

  Another re-entry here and boy what a huge step this season has been for the small Swiss dynamo. Reber cracked the men’s team in Jönköping and has now become their third leading scorer. While often a power play producer, Reber has always been a similar case for me. Insanely quick and agile through the neutral zone, aggressive going both directions, but remains pretty allergic to driving himself and/or the puck into scoring areas. There’s still a bit of that in his game but holy crap he is so capable of trying. One of the first shots he ever attempted in the SHL was a lacrosse shot, which is so cheeky and cocky that you just have to respect it.
  
  He’s the leading scorer among all D+1 SHL players this year, both in raw points and points per game, ahead of names like Brandsegg-Nygård, Träff, and Pettersson which surprises me, and I liked Reber last year quite a lot! The bar for players like him is high, and he’s getting plenty of reps to get over the hurdles in front of him. The quickness of his game could take him a long way and while I certainly don’t see him projecting as a centre, I expect a strong World Junior tournament from him and hope to see a more aggressive player in the offensive zone, driving more pucks into the middle of the ice and enabling others to generate offense.
  
  One last thing to keep in mind as well, is while Reber is a re-entry, he’s barely, barely a re-entry. If he were born 12 days later, making him a similar age to Roger McQueen, Malcolm Spence, Kashawn Aitcheson, or Victor Eklund, are people talking about Reber as if he’s the next big thing out of Switzerland? I get the feeling there would at least be some out there who are hopping on the bandwagon of “extremely productive draft year aged skilled forward playing in the SHL”. His rate of point production would put him among the top draft year players in recent SHL history. Eklund, Carlsson, Reber. Those would be the only first time draft eligibles above half a point a game. Both of those players were also late birthdays, which Reber would have been this season if he were born just a few weeks later than he was. The fact that zero people are really talking about Reber as an option of any kind simply doesn’t add up to me at all, and I’ve been a big fan this year.

• #35 | Conrad Fondrk | C/RW | U.S. National U18 Team

  Fondrk has been a remarkably up and down player this year. At times, when he knocks a puck free and blasts into open space, he has some of the most impressive rush offense moments of almost anyone in the draft. Dropping a shoulder, cutting to the net, making dangerous passing plays through scoring areas, Fondrk has a high ceiling in my view. His floor is low and he’s going to need to be a producer to make things work, and to me, the big question is if he’s got enough juice in the tank enough of the time to be more than just a really talented college scorer. I think he could get there with the explosiveness in his game, but there can be mental lapses with the puck and some soft passing leading to needless turnovers, and much of his data is good but not great almost across the board. I like the guy and he could be a nice swing to take, but in this range, there are others right there with him and it’s still a big mess, but of these players Fondrk has definitely had some of the most impressive singular moments.

• #36 | William Moore | C/LW | U.S. National U18 Team

  Moore is weird. I was expecting him to lead the NTDP by a margin on the ice, and I’ve just come away confused about what he could be in the future. You see moments of skill in transition and creative route selection that crosses up defenders, and he gets his scoring chances, wasting few shot attempts, but I wonder if there’s enough to crack the NHL in a given job one day? Obviously diagnosing things in the future is a dangerous game, and Moore is almost certainly going to mature into an impressive college forward, but while he’s skilled, I don’t see enough that pushes him up my board. He’s relatively quick, but only in pockets and isn’t as involved in play as I’d expect. He’s a decent passer, especially in transition, but his ability to generate offense is just not consistently there. He’s generating from the perimeter, and lots of the NTDP’s shots flow through him, but they’re often hemmed in their own end with him on the ice. He’s got some defensive edge to him, but is it enough to be a bottom six player? I’m not sure.

  
  It’s still early in the year and I have all the time in the world to have my mind changed, but it feels as though a lot of players have worked their way into a conversation to be at least on par with how Moore has played this season.

• #37 | Tinus Luc Koblar | F | Leksand IF J20

  Now this is a deep cut. If you look this guy up, you’ll see he isn’t scoring much, but he’s doing pretty much everything well except generating offense. The Slovenian-Norwegian is raw as it gets. 6’3” and under 180 pounds scales roughly to a 160 pound six-footer, so there’s plenty of meat to grow on his bones, and I think it’ll only benefit his style of play. He’s remarkably skilled and intelligent with the puck on his stick, with some great edgework to navigate through the neutral zone and stitch play together. His World Junior tournament has been underwhelming, but the entire Norwegian group has been that way it seems. I just really like the potential in his game. You see flashes of a lanky skilled player who sees the ice well, delays passes intelligently, and marches the puck up the ice well. He isn’t slow, he isn’t weak on his feet, he isn’t clunky, but he just needs to keep pushing his envelope with his offensive zone playmaking. His tracked data is really, really good in transition and generating his own scoring chances, and I’m not betting against a strong back half, and definitely not betting against an upward trajectory in the long term. He’s played every forward position a bit this year, and at centre I feel he’s been his best. With the right linemates I could easily see Koblar just get better and better on paper to line up with what he’s capable of in deeper metrics.

• #38 | Benjamin Kevan | RW/C | Des Moines Buccaneers

  Golly this group is so close. I feel dirty for having Kevan this low, but I just worry about the projection of his game to higher levels. He’s competitive, skilled, laterally quick, and selfless with the puck in the offensive zone. Shot selection needs work, and he isn’t particularly effective defensively in almost any respect, but his puck touches are often very well executed, especially in transition, and he reads opponents on the forechecks like a children’s novel. A smart, creative and confident forward, Kevan is a bit of a longshot with a low floor, but you see some really impressive puck movement and off-puck reads from him that catch your eye at times. I’ll keep checking in on him, and I’m not totally sure what I think of him, but this range feels about right for him for now. Could he end up higher? Maybe a little bit, but not a tier higher. Could he end up lower? Potentially but probably not tremendously.

• #39 | Filip Ekberg | W | Ottawa 67s

  I’ll admit that I wasn’t as hyped about Ekberg going into this season as some others, but I also believe people have overcorrected a bit on him. I think the speed and physicality of the OHL closed out his offensive potential at even strength but I think he’s really come a step with his ability to anticipate pressure, use skill to create lanes and manage it well. He’s been a great off-puck player as well, generating turnovers and anticipating breakouts well. His shot selection is… bad, but these things should grow as he gains more confidence. I think he’s a slow burn player who is clearly very very skilled and creative, but needs to gain a gear with his feet that he doesn’t have, and needs to get stronger all around in order to have more of an impact. This is about as high as he’s likely to be on my board, but I’m optimistic about him considering where others are on him. He’s had issues, but I think that he could work through them with enough time.

• #40 | Sascha Boumedienne | LHD | Boston University Terriers

  I already feel like I have Boumedienne a bit too low, but I don’t think he should be a tier higher or anything. He’s still finding his way as one of two 2007-born players in the NCAA. His metrics are… not good. Pretty much everywhere you look in my sample, it isn’t great, but he has had some nice playmaking moments off the boards in the offensive zone. He’s a great skater, which is what you’re building around. He picks his spots defensively very well but seeing the ice and calmly making plays to get the puck out of his end with control is a problem. He’s extremely pass-heavy, but doesn’t connect with his linemates enough right now. He’s one of a limited number of defensemen who are in a bit of a death zone in my data. Allowing control on more defensive transitions than he maintains control on his offensive ones. Basically, more guys are beating him than he’s beating them on the rush. It’s not unheard of, but it isn’t a great place to be, but I’m willing to be patient. As I write this, I need to reiterate that this tier is extremely close and I very well could wake up tomorrow and be cook with Boumedienne being ahead of a player like Reber on this list, but for now, I’m cautiously optimistic, and the team that drafts him will likely be building him out from his footwork and mobility into whatever it is that he’s going to be.

• #41 | Harry Nansi | RW | Owen Sound Attack

  Hi Jordan Malette, OHL Analyst at PuckPreps. Thanks for the pointer on Harry, because I absolutely love this guy. He is so, so smart and projectable as a player with insane amounts of involvement all over the ice. He’s a winger I want on the ice when games are in crunch time. He’s fast and intense as a player, but drives excellent offensive results as well. He stops up to create space and uses skill to move pucks into new lanes, and just marches play around the ice consistently with almost every shift. He’s such an enjoyable player to watch, and there were times I had him touching the end of the first round. He could get there before the end of the season if I’m being honest. He’s extremely young for the draft class, lanky for his size, and the potential is so glaringly apparent that I can only imagine him making himself more known to people over time. Yes, the point production isn’t there, but with the way he plays, I just can’t see how he doesn’t take steps forward over the next couple seasons in the OHL. He’s a player that I think coaches will love to have. He’s pesky, but plays the game with intelligence on and off the puck. I may be sticking my neck out a bit considering some of the OHLers I have lower than him, but setting raw point totals aside, I think he’d be an endearing player to many.

• #42 | Everett Baldwin | RHD | Cedar Rapids RoughRiders

  Right now, Baldwin is the ultimate wild card, but after watching both USHL games he had this year and catching some very limited tape of him playing at a lower level, I think Baldwin could be a shockingly high pick this year. I am being serious that I’m not sure there is a faster defenseman in a straight line this year. He’s at least part of the conversation. He’s shifty, skilled and has a remarkably quick wrist shot that he deploys often. I am waiting until I see more of him to really know what to do with him, but after the 17u Nationals this summer where I felt he was spectacular, and seeing him in the USHL this year, I think that more reps at that level would do him well. He’s just a ton of fun, and I know NHL scouts are on the ground watching him quite a lot, in enough volume to make me think he’s sneakily much higher on boards than the public realizes. I could be wrong, but I’ve really loved what I’ve seen. He’s explosive, creative, and brings a lot to the table that the modern NHL requires. Will he be this high in June? I honestly have no clue, but not many defenders could keep up with him that are ranked below him, and that counts for something in my view.

• #43 | Brady Martin | C | Soo Greyhounds

  I can hear the collective sounds of all 28 of you scratching your heads. It doesn’t sound great but I understand why you’re doing it. Watching Brady Martin this year, I simply have not understood the hype with him. Yes, I know he’s farm boy strong, but I just don’t really see how his game projects well to the NHL as-is outside of a complimentary low pace physical player who can protect the puck really, really well. His tracked data looks pretty good, and I think he’s a pretty smart passer timing things well and working off of linemates well, but from what I’ve seen so far, he isn’t the first player I’d pick in the draft. I can’t see him not being some kind of NHL player, considering how well he can eat the puck along the boards and find ways to make plays, how physical he can be, and how he passes the puck, but seeing him as high as he is on other boards while I’ve seen faster, more skilled and creative big boys that I think will have an easier time with NHL pace just leaves him where he is here. This tier, as I’ve said, is extremely close. I could easily be swayed to take him over some of the names at the top of the tier because I do respect the things he does really really well, and I may be overcorrecting because of how high I’ve seen him elsewhere, but I’ve had a tough time with Martin this year. At one point I tracked a game of his, and a game of Harry Nansi immediately afterwards with a neutral observer who has nothing to do with the OHL watching on, and we both very quickly agreed that Nansi was a more intriguing player than Martin. Faster, higher skill level, more creative and adaptable passer in transition, there was just quite a lot of meat to chew on with Nansi that we both believed could lead him to a higher ceiling than Martin.
  
  I will say that seeing Brady Martin on the CHL roster in London and Oshawa, I saw what he could be, but he was playing with elite prospects as a complimentary physical presence who could get the puck off the boards well and set a physical tone. That’s fine and dandy, but to me, I have other priorities in the first round, and I felt that a player like William Belle fit that role in a more projectable way, just on a much, much worse roster.

• #44 | Kurban Limatov | LHD/RSD | MHK Dynamo Moskva

  Closing out our individual player writeups is Kurban Limatov. You want to talk wild cards, Limatov is about as wild as it gets. In my view he gets better every game, but he started of real, real sketchy. He’s absolutely massive, and very fluid on his feet for such a big boy, and when he gets a head of steam going with the puck, holy moly does he ever get moving. The problem is that uh, he doesn’t really play actual hockey all that well, but I mean that in a positive sense. There’s so much potential talent there, but he loses physical battles he should win, gets walked on defensive entries, can send aimless passes to nobody, extending defensive zone cycles, and can get caught flat footed on his stick checks, making life way too easy for opponents. BUT. The bright moments are so, so bright, and I think he’s taken steps. He’s taking his time with the puck, making better reads, and cutting off play in the offensive zone better. I don’t know, I don’t think his talent level puts him in a lower tier, but he just isn’t… there enough to be higher on the board. Some days I love him, some days I go elsewhere, but there’s something there glimmering away, it just might take a decade to get there.

Tier 5 - Pretty Neat, But ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

• Ahhhhhhh Simon Wang. The epitome of gigantic Skate-y Boi, he absolutely zips and zooms around, but I haven’t really seen much more than that on a consistent basis. I am intrigued, I thought he looked good in that one OHL game, but had some shaky moments moving the puck on his own and passing, especially in and out of the defensive zone. He’s Kurban Limatov but even more Limatov-y. I couldn’t draft a half point per game OJHLer higher than this no matter how big and zoomy they are. A high OJHL pick historically has been absolutely dominant in order to work out. Could he be? Maybe, but he is a long term bet. A fun one though!

• Anthony Allain-Samake might be the most underrated defender in the USHL. I love him. There’s so much that’s almost there with him. He’s had an interesting story that’s his to tell in my opinion, but I just want to support this dude as much as I can. He’s smart, mobile, fluid, and I think he gets a bit more aggressive off the puck and challenges the rush a bit more, he could be really impressive. His offensive zone passing can be excellent at times, and I really enjoyed the potential of his game. He isn’t there yet, but he’s another extremely young player who is a USHL rookie, but doesn’t look out of place.

• Nikita Poltavchuk is so fun. Skilled, really mobile, aggressive with the puck, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play a KHL game here and there by the end of the year. He can be a bit loose defensively and pinch for offense a bit too much, but with his skating ability, vision and creativity, I’ve really enjoyed him this year.

• Luka Radivojevic: Skates insanely well and is lots of fun but… no idea what he is in the future.

• Gavin Cornforth is a bit small, but I don’t care. He’s a remarkably hard worker, a great forechecker and quick thinker on the puck who could be an interesting option as a complimentary winger.

• Ivan Fomin is as small as hockey players get, but holy smokes is he ever a fun player. He may literally pass away on the ice one day, be it from bouncing off a guy he’s trying to hit head first, or flying into the boards on a missed hit, or turning into a hit that snaps him in half from behind, or just from a heart attack from trying so damn hard, but my god in heaven he is so, so much fun to watch. He’s insanely explosive, aggressive on loose pucks, has room to grow as an annoying forechecker, and chains offensive zone plays together with the best in this draft. He’s playing in Vladivostok for a team that has never generated an NHL draft pick, but I simply do not care. He came out of nowhere this season and I’ve loved almost every minute of him. I would trade Mr. Future Considerations for the last pick in the draft to land his rights and see where he goes in the next 5-7 years. He skates like the wind blows across the plains of Siberia, he can shoot, he can make plays, his offensive analytics for me are off the charts, and he may risk his life on many shifts, but by gum isn’t that what we’re all looking for from time to time?

• Kashawn Aitcheson ends up here and I’d be remiss if I don’t explain why. I just haven’t really seen a top end defender there. He’s aggressive and a real pain in the ass, but I’ve seen him sit back on countless defensive zone entries, allow a chance on net, then hack and whack the guy after the whistle blows. Is that my kind of defender? No. Does he shoot the puck good? Sure, but I don’t really value that a ton with defensemen, especially when considering them in the first round. I think his ability to read the ice and execute passes into the neutral zone is well behind many of the defenders ahead of him. He’s just a really tough defenseman but to me he’s the brand of tough defenseman that isn’t nearly as effective as people might think. He’s mean, annoying, and can play the psychological game, and there’s certainly room to grow, but it almost doesn’t matter where I rank him because I’m almost certain he’ll be gone before he’s the best option for me.

• Ludvig Johnson is in here. I’ve watched most of his games in the National League since his call up after a spectacular start to his junior season. He’s still got a ways to go defensively, but he does not look out of place in one of the best men’s leagues in Europe whatsoever. I always felt he was much closer to Washington Capitals 2nd rounder Leon Muggli than anyone would have thought, and I think they’ve both been on similar levels at the top division this season. Johnson is skilled, creative, sees the ice so well, and I am really hopeful that he can bring that success to international ice this year. He was a deep cut I was confident in last season so to see him find more success than I expected this quickly in his career is a welcome surprise.

• Alexander Zharovsky might be the most underrated Russian in the draft. He’s electrifyingly skilled, making plays at high speeds and embarrassing opponents here and there. He’s a great playmaker with an underutilized shot, and he’s just gotten more and more comfortable as an MHL rookie this year. I’ve got eyes firmly set on him, and have really enjoyed what I’ve seen on a team that has been a ton of fun to watch.

• And here we have Ivan Ryabkin. He has not been good this year. Reports coming out of Russia are worse. It isn’t a good situation and honestly it’s a bit disappointing to the point where I hope he can recover things and become the special player he flashed last year. He’s playing slower, using his skill significantly less, playing like he’s frustrated, and simply hasn’t been effective at even strength in a level he should be dominating. Is it salvageable? I believe the answer to that is always yes, but being a healthy scratch in the MHL for a player as productive as he was last year is an immeasurable fall in standing. Has he been that bad? I don’t believe so, but he also has been seriously underwhelming and hasn’t looked any better when I check in as the year goes on.

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Tier 6 - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

• Jack Murtagh is in here, mostly because I see a nice complimentary finisher with some strength, but I don’t really see a great possession driver or off-puck impact player. He’s a bit clunky and slow in my viewings and his analytical profile is really underwhelming. He just hasn’t really popped in my viewings outside of some nice shooting opportunities. I may be off on this, but similar to Aitcheson, I feel like it doesn’t matter. He’ll be gone before I’d be ready to add him to my pipeline.

• I think Daniil Skvortsov might be the most underrated defender in the OHL class this year. It may not come out often, but he’s mobile and one of the most involved players on defensive rushes that I’ve come across this year. It may not go his way all the time, but he’s big and uses his reach well, with plenty of mobility to toy around with. He’s a project, but on a Guelph team that has struggled at times, Skvortsov has been a curiously strong and interesting presence in their defense group.

• I really want Luca Romano to be a thing. He’s so smart moving the puck and sees the ice so well, I just wonder how he projects to higher levels. He doesn’t have a tremendous amount of strength nor speed at the moment, but he can manage it considering the smarts he has. He uses the raw ability he has very well, and I could see him higher by the end of the year, but I always go back to “what is this player in the NHL”, and I’m not sure what the answer is for Romano, which gives me pause.

• Vaclav Nestrasil is a really, really raw player, but I was pleasantly surprised to see him get a look from a major player like Craig Button. He’s very tall and very lanky, but there’s some good speed and great skill locked away in his game. He’s a player that needs some guidance and coaching, but in a positive way. I don’t think he realizes just how good he could be, and plays very cautious and careful hockey, but can panic under pressure and not see the ice super well. Muskegon was abysmal in the game I tracked of his, and he wasn’t particularly amazing, but I still saw flashes. Skill under pressure, creativity, good speed to close gaps off the puck, I think his back half could be pretty good and I’m hopeful that we see a bit more of what he’s capable of.

• Lev Katzin smol. Lev Katzin fun. Lev Katzin shoot fast. NHL? Probably not, but it’d be fun!

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The Watchlist

• Every time I watch the US NTDP, Richard Gallant is the guy catching my eye every single time. I felt he was one of the only Americans who could skate with and push back the talented CHL roster. He’s got great cuts to make space, threads passes really well through traffic, and I’ve really liked him. I haven’t tracked him yet but I’ll get to him, because I’ve liked what I’ve seen. He’s just small, but I think there might be enough there to get through the issues he has because of his size.

• And so we get to The Watchlist. These are players that have caught my attention but are largely only on this list to keep an eye on long term and to prevent me from forgetting about their existence. I could draft some of these players for sure, but my projection on them might be a little too uncertain or risky for me to really pull the trigger.

• The (kinda) Omsk defenders here (Zavadsky and Ukhmylov) are raw, raw, raw, but I think there’s good potential long term with both. Zavadsky has a massive shot from the point and some great skating ability, but his passing vision and strength needs work. Ukhmylov is skilled and fluid on his feet, but lanky as hell and in my opinion needs to have a bit more assertiveness and confidence with the puck. There are some high end moments with him, but then he quietly sneaks away into the bush for a while. Fun player, probably not a guy I’m drafting, but definitely a guy I want to watch long term.

• Roman Bausov is huge, skates well, and is very smart defensively. He just has such limited offensive potential and is so boring. I mean that respectfully though. He eats minutes, gobbles pucks and is a good defensive insulator, but I need more to be more confident in his profile.

• Little David Lovgren is on here. He’s just a riot to watch. Quick, skilled, agile, he takes up almost no space on the ice which leaves him behind often, but once the puck hits his stick, he’s off like a rocket and has some pinpoint passing ability that has led to some seriously impressive individual moments. He’s as long a longshot gets but he’s always a hoot.

• Maxim Zaitsev is the epitome of stickhandling in a phone booth. For all you kids out there, a phone booth is a very small, often enclosed space for human beings to use stationary cell phones with no internet or apps to call other human beings for a very small amount of money. Being able to stickhandle inside of one is a very impressive trait. He’s pretty slow, pretty individualistic, but if you watch a highlight package, you’ll be smitten. Dipsy-doodling around multiple defenders and slinging passes around like the fishmongers at Pike Place. Fun? Yes. Projectable? Probably not.

• Lasse Boelius might be the best first time draft eligible Finn this year, but I really don’t know if there’s an NHLer there without a great leap in skating ability. He wants to play like Cale Makar, but he ain’t Cale Makar. Deception, pinpoint passing, skill, a good shot, he’s got all of it, but that playstyle requires elite mobility and offensive output to make it work, and while I haven’t seen much of him in Liiga, I haven’t seen him really look like a player that could project to the NHL well anytime soon. He should be drafted, but you’ll need to be patient and hope for significant development.

• Who the hell is Yuri Rummo? He’s a big, violent Belorussian playing in Moscow for the Red Army program, and he’s just a barrel of laughs to watch. I’m surprised he hasn’t produced a bit more, but he’s a high pace, energetic player who absolutely levels opponents at times, almost to a fault. He has an underrated skill level though, and while he is clearly extremely raw, there are interesting bits and pieces to his game that could turn out to be a nice energy player over a very long period. He’s a project, but plays a style that I think could be endearing to NHL folks one day.

• Daniil Petrenko is really entertaining and hard working, and scored one of the quickest and slickest lacrosse goals I’ve ever seen this season, but I’m not sure he skates well enough to be a skilled player at higher levels.

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There you have it! I hope you enjoyed. If you did, definitely consider a subscription to Scouching.ca to fund our work and get access to really cool data tables and visualizations. Over the new year, I’ll be updating everything for the 2025 class, so stay tuned for that, I’m just getting my samples up to a comfortable level so it’s worth sharing with you beautiful people. You can also join us live on YouTube for Scouching Live, every Monday night at 8pm EST and Thursday afternoons at 2pm EST, so drop by, ask questions and get some more clarity on what you’ve read today!

Have a safe and fun holiday season, no matter how you celebrate, and thanks for reading!

Previewing the Goaltending for the 2025 World Junior Championships

This season at Scouching we’re extremely excited to expand our team a little bit, bringing Tony Ferrari in on the Game Tape side of things over on YouTube, and over here on the blog we’re welcoming Scouching Discord and YouTube Chat superstar David Phillips. Unusually, David actually wants to contribute positively to the project and fill in a little bit of a gap with our coverage, diving into goaltenders for the 2025 NHL Draft and international tournaments. To start off his guest series, he took the time to look at the likely goaltenders that will be (or should be) minding the nets for each respective team. Sometimes goaltending can carry you to a medal, so perhaps some of these names are going to be the ones on our minds at the most glorious time of the year. We’ve organized this as if it were a power ranking, working from the likely top goaltending group down to the bottom.

Thanks so, so much to David for the hard work he’s put into this and hopping onboard. I hope you learn plenty like I have! Give him a follow over on X, and expect some more from him in the future!

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#1 - Team U.S.A.: Trey Augustine - Michigan State University (NCAA)
2023 41st Overall - Detroit Red Wings

There really is no other choice for the Americans at the World Juniors. Augustine has started for the Americans at the last two World Junior tournaments, as well as starting for the Men’s World Championship last season. Augustine is just very simply put the easiest choice on this list.

Trey Augustine has a natural gift of making goaltending look easy. He does this by having incredible tracking, which he utilizes to follow pucks into his glove and blocker with ease. Augustine also shows incredible technical habits, and outstanding footwork. He moves around the crease with precision and carves into the ice to generate power. Augustine does have a tendency to cheat towards his glove hand when he’s near his blocker side post, and while he usually makes up for it by sliding into his blocker save it can bite him for a GA. Additionally, I think Augustine plays super aggressive and I’m not sure if he will be able to get away with playing that aggressive at the World Juniors.

Some other goalies to keep an eye on for the Americans include Sam Hillebrandt, who was the team’s 3rd goalie at last year’s tournament and Kings draft pick Hampton Slukynsky from Western Michigan University.

#2 - Team Czechia: Michael Hrabal - UMass-Amherst (NCAA)
2023 38th Overall - Utah Hockey Club

Towering at 6’6”, Hrabal should return as the starter for a relatively strong Czech team. Hrabal recorded a 0.877 SV% through 7 games as the starter last world juniors, and should be looking towards improving those numbers and propelling Czechia to the medal rounds.

What makes Hrabal an effective goaltender is his incredibly rare blend of frame and speed. Most of the goalies who are Hrabal’s size don’t move around the crease with the ease and pace that Hrabal can pull off. Hrabal does a great job of digging his blade into the ice and activating his thighs to push off with as much strength as he can, and stops on a dime when he arrives at his new location. I do have concerns about Hrabal’s tracking ability though, as he can have a tendency to react late to changes in the play because he doesn’t get his eyes on the puck particularly well.

Some other goalies who could end up starting for the Czechs include Kometa Brno’s Jan Kavan, and Adam Dybal from Tri-City in the USHL.

#3 - Team Sweden: Melker Thelin - IF Björklöven (HockeyAllsvenskan)
2023 134th Overall - Utah Hockey Club

Melker Thelin was a goalie I liked in his draft year, and I thought he was a pretty under-the-radar option in terms of goalies for the 2023 class. Thelin has plenty of pro experience, including 41 games split between the HockeyAllsvenskan and HockeyEttan, as well as 1 game of SHL experience.

Thelin’s game is primarily based around his incredible ability to track the puck. He sees it through traffic and follows the puck around the ice incredibly well. Thelin combines his excellent puck tracking capabilities with top-drawer movement technique and speed that results in him beating the puck to shot locations consistently. Thelin has a narrow stance, which allows him to drive across the crease with more power from his standing stance. Thelin does have some trouble with his play on the post though. I found Thelin to cheat a bit to the inside on shots from sharp angles, and it allows shooters to find the top of the net over his shoulder on the post side of the net.

Other goalies to keep an eye on for the Swedes would be Noah Erliden from the Erie Otters and Leksand’s Marcus Gidlöf, who is an Islanders draft pick from 2024.

#4 - Team Finland: Eemil Vinni - HIFK U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
2024 64th Overall - Edmonton Oilers

Eemil Vinni brings over 39 professional games of experience to the Finnish crease, after starting for JoKP in the Mestis during his draft year last season. Vinni was rostered as the 3rd goalie for Finland at last year’s tournament, but this time around I think Vinni will take over the crease.

Vinni is an extremely athletic and aggressive goalie who will stop at nothing to make a save. He propels himself towards shooters, cutting down the angle as much as he can and making quick reactive saves. Vinni does a really good job of moving around the and challenging pucks because of his no-quit attitude that he brings to every game. Vinni does have an issue with his blocker side though I found, as he isn't consistent getting his blocker onto the puck to effectively deflect it into the corner. Vinni’s aggressive style can also come to his detriment when threats sneak up on the back door, resulting in wide open attempts for opponents.

A strong start in the Liiga for 06-born Petteri Rimpinen for Kiekko-Espoo, as well as TPS’ Noa Vali, who is also a returnee, could both contend for the starting role.

#5 - Team Canada: Scott Ratzlaff - Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
2023 141st Overall - Buffalo Sabres

Predicting Canada’s starter was a tough decision, but I think the combination of Scott Ratzlaff being the 3rd goalie at last year’s tournament and his impressive performance with the U18 team at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup two years ago would give him the nod for the Canadians. Ratzlaff has been solid in his (at the time of writing this) 121 career WHL games that he has maintained a respectable 0.907 SV%, all with the Seattle Thunderbirds.

Ratzlaff’s claim to fame is his incredible movement in the crease. Not only is Ratzlaff among the fastest goalie prospects around, but he does so with impeccable control. His ability to slide around the crease is truly awe-inspiring and he does a great job of catching his edges and adjusting his feet to better suit his next movement or save. Ratzlaff also shows strong mechanics following the common eyes-hands-legs approach moving in a nearly robotic fashion that makes him very effective with high pressure situations. Ratzlaff does have a rough patch with regards to his ability to track pucks into his save process, and occasionally drops his hands early resulting in opening up some space up high for shooters

While Ratzlaff is my prediction for Canada’s starter, I wouldn’t neglect guys like 2025 eligible Josh Ravensbergen and Flyers’ prospect Carson Bjarnason to take the reins for the Canadians in this year’s rendition of the world juniors.

#6 - Team Slovakia: Samuel Urban - Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
2025 Eligible (DY+2 Re-Entry)

Samuel Urban is the clear favourite for the Slovak starter job. The Sioux City Musketeer has provided quality performances in the USHL, and showed he could be trusted with the crease at the 2023 World Under U18 Championships, where he posted a respectable 0.908 SV%.

Urban is a quick moving goalie with good footwork that he utilizes to maximize his distance covered in any given movement. His ability to stretch out and cover the bottom half of the net is pretty good, and Urban does have good tracking habits on his saves. His technicality is there as well, with good transitions from butterfly to standing and in-and-out of his post. Urban is a bit below the pack with regards to his ability to read plays, but his technical framework and speed often make up for this fault.

Fargo’s Damian Slávik and the South Shore Kings’ Lukáš Fürsten could also contend for this starting role, and are worth keeping an eye on should they be selected to the tournament roster for the Slovaks.

#7 - Team Latvia: Linards Feldbergs - Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)
2025 Eligible (DY+2 Re-Entry)

Linards Feldbergs, who came off of an Optibet Hokeja Liga finals MVP before making the move to the QMJHL, is my pick for this year’s Latvian starter. Feldbergs has represented Latvia 3 times in the past, once in the World Juniors, and twice at the World U18s. 

Feldbergs moves around the crease exceptionally well and it stems from his high-end athleticism. His hip flexibility is astounding, and Feldbergs uses this to keep his pads along the ice when sliding around the crease, ensuring no pucks sneak through along the ice. Feldbergs is also a quick mover around the crease, zipping across the crease with emphasis on getting to the next save location in a timely manner. The fluidity and speed of Feldbergs’ game makes him a goalie who can be tough to beat when he’s on his game, but he does have a bit of an inclination to lose his crease and posts during his movements which can result in goals against from rebounds.

Montréal draft pick Mikus Vecvanags and World Juniors returnee Aksels Ozols could both make arguments for taking the crease in this year’s World Juniors for the Latvians.

#8 - Team Switzerland: Ewan Huet - Regina Pats (WHL)
2025 Eligible (DY+2 Re-Entry)

Ewan Huet of the Regina Pats should make a return to the Swiss Under-20 team after playing in one game at last year’s tournament. Perhaps playing for Regina has prepared the netminder for the expected onslaught of shots against in the World Juniors for the Swiss, as he faces well over 30 shots regularly in the WHL.

Huet’s goalie style involves a very wide stance to cover the lower half of the net effectively. He flares out his legs well, and keeps his structure when he drops to the butterfly showcasing decent hip flexibility to do so. Huet also does a good job of reading the game and analyzing threats near the net. He uses his shoulder checks in opportune moments and adjusts his positioning accordingly to make the next save as easy as he can. Huet does have issues with losing his posts and crease, and his post seal isn’t very good. Huet leaves lots of open net in the top half when in his butterfly, and it’ll be interesting to see how he does at the World Juniors (should he be attending).

Some alternatives for the Swiss starting role include Sharks’ prospect Christian Kirsch and 2025-eligible Elijah Neuenschwander, who are both 2006 born goalies.

#9 - Team Kazakhstan: Vladimir Nikitin - Snezhnye Barsy Astana (MHL)
2023 207th Overall - Ottawa Senators

One of the easier picks for this article, as the Senators draft pick became the first Kazakh goalie to be selected since 1994 (Vitaly Yeremeyev). Nikitin started at last year’s tournament for the Kazakhs, and posted an impressive 0.944 SV% to get his team promoted to this year’s World Juniors tournament.

Nikitin is huge. The 6’5” frame is used quite well to cover the net too, as he has a wide stance and does a good job of challenging shooters giving them nothing to look at. Nikitin is also an incredible athlete. When I watch Nikitin, there are countless moments where my own hips hurt from seeing the maneuvers that Nikitin pulls off. Nikitin’s athleticism and size make him a fun goalie to watch, but the tracking is still an area of concern. He also doesn’t position himself square to the shooter very well, getting beat by shots simply because he is off-angle far too often.

We could see goalies such as Mikhaylov Akademiya’s Vladimir Istomin or Taifun’s Ruslan Kakenov challenge for the crease, but I think it’s pretty much 100% guaranteed that we’ll see Nikitin get the nod on day 1 for the Kazakhs.

#10 - Team Germany: Nico Pertuch - Ravensburg Towerstars (DEL2)
2025 Eligible (DY+2 Re-Entry)

Pertuch, who got the nod for the Germans at his age group’s U18 World Championships is my pick for the U20 team this season. He’s played pretty well internationally for the Germans, and also was selected to the team as the 3rd goalie for last year’s World Junior’s.

Pertuch’s goaltending style is as close as I think it could get to being a ‘meat and potatoes’ goaltender. He is positionally sound, emphasized by countless chest saves. While these chest saves may be a result of lower quality shots against, it still is a good sign that Pertuch is able to smother the pucks with his chest. Pertuch also does a good job of keeping rebounds out of dangerous areas. Pertuch smothers everything into his chest by bringing his glove hand over to ensure the puck doesn’t punch out, and also pounces on loose pucks in the crease area. An area of improvement that I’ll be monitoring at the World Juniors (should he be there) is with regards to how he moves around the crease. As it stands, Pertuch is a very rigid mover and it seems like he is fighting against himself to move to the next location. His body-weight shift errors could be a result of this, as he doesn’t use his body to create momentum with his slides very well.

Some other goalies who could end up starting for this German squad include Valentin Ankirchner from the Red Bull Hockey program, and the 6’6” behemoth all the way from the GOJHL, Lennart Neiße.

Reflecting on Six Years of Tracking Data

If you’re unaware, I spend all day of almost every day during the hockey season watching hockey games around the world and tracking data of the player I’m analyzing in that game. The focus of my data collection is to clearly identify the events the player is involved in, their impact on the game, and the results of their impact one way or the other. Whether it’s defensive, passing, transition, playmaking or shooting data, the focus is simply “what is happening on the ice, what is the player doing, and what is the outcome”. One of the things I’m most often asked by fans, scouts, and other hockey people is if there are any factors in my tracked data that can be reflected upon and carried forwards with regards to draft strategy. I have been at this project in some way since 2019, and the amount of data I gather has increased significantly with refinements to my strategy and thought process. After a season, I usually have a small list of things I’d like to add to the tracking sheet for the following season, and hope that that list gets shorter every year. For 2025, the only metric I’ll be adding is tracking the total number of defensive zone cycles established by a player’s opponent while they’re on the ice. I track how many cycles a player “breaks” in some way, but have no context for just how often the player is hemmed in their own zone, which could be key context to understand. Outside of that, I’m happy with where things are, especially with my 2024 draft data, and I feel somewhat confident that I have enough players in the database with enough games tracked that we can start looking at some that correlate to greater success on the ice.

First off, some caveats… I track players from all over the world, and generally draw the line at top division junior leagues in the major European hockey nations (Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Switzerland) and the two premier Junior A leagues in Canada (BCHL/AJHL). There has been one exception in Scott Morrow at the US Prep School level who had a very near perfect dataset. Some youngsters are playing pro hockey for 8 minutes a night, others are playing 20 minutes a night in the WHL, so there is context that may colour things in some way. That said, good results are good results, and hockey is still the same game no matter where it’s played. The rink size may change, but otherwise the fundamentals are the same. My data is also all tracked at 5v5 only. Most of the game is played at 5v5, and good 5v5 players can generally be analyzed to project as useful in other game states. I also try to track games that are played against strong competition in their leagues, especially at the junior level, and quadruply so in Russia. Lastly, some of these players have small sample sizes in their individual datasets for one reason or another, but every player’s data has been dumped into a pool of individual performances looking at various correlates between tracked metrics and shot attempt differentials, dangerous shot attempt differentials, and shot attempt rates at both ends of the ice (offensive and defensive). The general focus is to isolate factors that drive good results in a hockey game, and cutting through whatever biases there might be analyzing of the game in the context of the NHL Draft. We’ll also be avoiding correlating between raw shot totals to shot attempt differentials unless they’re worth noting in general as they are obviously major drivers of themselves in some way and we’re more interested in the other tracked data’s effect on those differentials. We will also be keeping this relatively simple, calculating Pearson Product-Moment Correlations (r-value). So with that out of the way, let’s take a look and see what pops out!

Takeaway #1 - Defensive Results Are Noise… Except One Thing…

I gave a quick presentation about this topic a few years back at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference during the pandemic, and a few years later, the same trend holds. The impact of defensive metrics on overall shot attempt differentials is basically noise with very little correlation, but there is one area that is a decent correlate, and that’s allowing control of the puck across bluelines if you’re a defenseman. It doesn’t matter what blueline we’re looking at; the worse you are at preventing zone transitions, the worse you’re going to be in your own end. This may seem obvious, but I see defenders struggle in this area and have concern waved away because of physical play in their own end or how they clear the front of the net, when in reality, the battle is always made more difficult when getting into that situation in the first place. I see players with a knack for being aggressive and using their feet and stick to challenge carriers and pucks in the neutral zone and they often go unheralded or labeled concerning because of a perceived lack of physical tools. This trend is a big reason why I’m so forthright about looking more closely at highly mobile, smaller, skilled defenders, as they often take a more aggressive approach off the puck to challenge play higher up the ice, and the results often speak for themselves.

When isolating specifically for shot attempts against, there are some interesting takeaways that feed into a similar story. Uncontrolled offensive zone exits and transition involvement at the offensive blueline going either direction are correlate on a similar level when it comes to suppressing defensive shot attempts. In fact, defensive zone entries, even those that are uncontrolled correlate to increased rates of defensive zone shot rates albeit at a very weak level. It appears that preventing defensive zone transition control, especially at the offensive blueline should be the focus in order to get strong defensive results.

For forwards? It’s a bit of a mess and there wasn’t much that factored into preventing chances defensively that are reliable enough to get into.

Some of the key points of interest that improve shot attempts against (SATA) and shot differentials (SAT%/DSAT%) among defenders.

OZExitUnc - Uncontrolled offensive zone exits | OBLT - Total offensive blueline transitions | DTS% - Defensive transition success percentage

Note: DTS% is a the opponent’s success rate on their offensive transitions against the subject. Lower is better, so as DTS% increases (bad), SATA increases and SAT% decreases (bad), leading to the correlations displayed.

Takeaway #2 - Offense > Defense

If anything is clear when looking at the data, it’s that offensive output drives overall results at a much more consistent and reliable rate than defensive suppression does. As we found above, even after adding multiple new metrics to track defensive play, nothing makes much of any difference except defensemen being aggressive on defensive rushes. There are positive correlations just as strong for forwards when it comes to attempted slot passes, completed slot passes, total completed passes, shot assists, and offensive zone turnovers generated. Transition success is a much weaker correlate and transition involvement has no correlation. For forwards, the balance of the game is so heavily weighed towards the offensive zone that the rest is a secondary concern on paper.

Switching over to defensemen, things are a little bit more mixed, but the importance of the offensive blueline holds true once again as a good correlate with all shot attempts as well as when we filter out low danger opportunities. It appears that defensive transition play affects defensive results reliably, but at the other end, involvement in the offensive zone is paramount, and individual low danger attempts from the perimeter is a poor correlate when compared to slot passing and stepping up from the offensive blueline to make plays.

There are so many offensive metrics that have such an impact on the overall balance of shot attempts in a game of hockey and so few defensive ones that over the years, I’ve simply leaned more and more into valuing players that bring offensive upside and drive strong results in that area more and more.

A selection of offensive and defensive metrics for forwards and their impact on shot metrics. Note how many offensive metrics have correlations that boost overall results while defensive metrics are significantly weaker.

iDSAT - Dangerous shot attempts taken by player | DShA - Dangerous shot assists | DPass - Slot passes

CB - Defensive zone cycles broken

Takeaway #3 - Stop Shooting From Nowheresville!

Another one that might seem obvious, but is interesting to see presented across multiple leagues and levels of play is the trend that connects volume shooters and questionable offensive results and projection. As indicated, defensemen drive better results when challenging opponents in the offensive zone rather than peppering the net from the perimeter and hoping for chaos to reign supreme in front of the net. The same is true for forwards by an even larger margin. If we focus on shot differentials from dangerous areas of the ice, how much a player shoots from the perimeter is basically a non-factor. In fact, when zeroing in on some high end prospects whose shot attempts come from the perimeter more often than not, we see some interesting names pop up: Alexander Holtz, Joakim Kemell, Jacob Perreault, Zachary Bolduc, Sasha Pastujov, and Matthew Beniers are in there. Granted, some are better off than others at current time and there is much more to their overall story (especially for Beniers), but these are largely productive, high offense players often coveted in the NHL Draft. Only Pastujov was a pick outside the first round, but many outlets had him just outside that range at the end of the season. All of these players have had some level of struggle projecting their goal scoring/production to the professional levels of hockey, but of course they have time left to continue to improve and carve out a role if they haven’t already. Trevor Connelly, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Terik Parascak are notable examples from the last couple of drafts who fall into the same category, so keeping an eye on that will be interesting in the near future.

Highlighting the importance of shot selection, weighing the subject’s shot attempts by location (iwSAT) to favor dangerous attempts correlates well to offensive results. Low danger attempts correlate to team dangerous shot attempts for as well, but much weaker than stepping deeper into the offensive zone. There is also more evidence of stronger correlations to improved shot differentials from offensive data than defensive data.

Takeaway #4 - Offensive Zone Forechecking Matters

No matter which way you slice it, forwards who create turnovers in the offensive zone in some fashion leads to better shot differentials. While the correlations on the defensive side are quite weak, when looking at offense and overall differentials, there is a decent correlation across the board. Sitting back on a forecheck is a recipe for limiting your offense, which may seem obvious, but we can hear criticism of a 2-1-2 forecheck due to the defensive holes it may create. Combining the results that favour generating turnovers in the offensive zone and defensemen being aggressive at the offensive blueline, we start to see a picture that more aggressive teams and players at all positions not only drive better offensive results, but may not affect defensive results on paper, and have a positive impact on shot differentials, even when removing perimeter shot attempts at both ends. When you think about it from a strategic point of view, this all makes a level of logical sense. Getting a breakout organized and moving up the ice is a pivotal skill to nail down for any team, but it can be a chaotic process no matter how good your players are. Once players get a head of steam going, the defensive approach becomes gap management and guiding carriers to the perimeter, which can be difficult against faster, skilled players who can see the ice well, read options and get through defensive layers in a more controlled environment. In many cases, it seems to pay off to be risky and more aggressive than it does to sit back and let the game come to you. This is another area in my work that has remained important and reflected in my rankings, but I will also admit that tracking offensive zone turnovers is an addition to my 2023 tracking and the sample isn’t as big, but some names to keep an eye on here? Teddy Stiga, Brodie Ziemer, Ilya Pautov, Hiroki Gojsic, Berkly Catton, Will Smith, Zach Benson, Konsta Helenius, Jacob Battaglia, Ollie Josephson and Adam Fantilli have all been standouts. Others have gone undrafted but are on my radar as they age such as Theo Kiss, Griffin Erdman, Isac Hedqvist, and Christopher Thibodeau who have all been mixed into the previous group.

Some key forechecking and aggression metrics for forwards and defenders. Increased offensive zone turnover generation (OZTo) for forwards is among the stronger correlates for driving good results at both ends, especially offensively. Combining with the correlations for aggressive offensive blueline defenders makes the case for increased risk for greater reward.

Takeaway #5 - Good Differentials ≠ Good Player

This one is a little more anecdotal and dips more into the traditional hockey world, but over the years you absolutely pick up on details and facets of the game in of the NHL that changes your philosophy on players outside of the NHL. There have been players who drive great results in some way in my experience, but struggle to project to higher levels, let alone the NHL. Yes, in the data there are little details and quirks that can raise questions, but some players drive great results, even in good leagues, but the confidence that that trend continues may not be there for a variety of reasons. The same can be said about the opposite case. Having a firm grasp of the NHL’s speed, physicality, intensity and seeing how the best of the best be that way at the highest levels is paramount to avoiding errors and relying on your data too much. For example, the some leading forwards among big sample players in dangerous shot attempt differentials I’ve tracked over the years? Lorenzo Canonica, Jack Devine, Logan Stankoven, Teddy Stiga, Joel Jonsson, Aydar Suniev and Lucas Raymond. Some of these players went undrafted, one in the first round, two in the second and one in the seventh. Why? Canonica is a great example. He’s objectively small but vitally lacked the elite skill and speed necessary to escape or navigate through defensive pressure at his size, even at the QMJHL level to consistently drive actual offensive results. In my view, Stankoven, Stiga and at to a lesser extent Jonsson buck that trend. Raymond was simply a very talented two-way player in the SHL and absolutely deserved the elite status he had in 2020.

On the flipside, Brad Lambert has had the second worst shot differential of anyone I’ve tracked, but I remained steadfast that there was something there based on other metrics and his video evidence, and his career in the time since has been significantly more promising. 2024 first round pick Stian Solberg was also awful when it came to shot differentials, and you can see why in the video for a variety of reasons, but does that make him a reach or bad first round pick? To me, no! I love that guy. Does it mean he’s an NHLer this year or next year? Highly unlikely, but it goes to show how important it is to look at every detail in aggregate and incorporate what you’re seeing as you gather information, how those things intertwine and what you may be able to extract from that information to make better bets on players. It’s funny to say, but being good doesn’t always mean you’re good, let alone in the NHL. The more I watch the NHL, the more I worry about raw pace, intensity, forechecking pressure, and quick thinking, and that’s become a prime area of interest for me, with the data being an informative backbone to that strategy.

Final Takeaway - This isn’t Magic, but You Can’t Live Without It

You may note that a lot of the correlations here are not definitively strong, and we’ve been over some of the caveats in the collection process that might lead to that situation. When I started this project, I set out to really dig into what findings could be gathered from looking more closely at performance data in the draft and how it can be used to improve strategy and output. After many years of this, I’ve learned simultaneously that nothing in my work “solves the draft” or creates a foolproof approach to never miss a draft pick ever again, but I also am strongly of the belief that any scout in the NHL needs to be data-literate in 2024 with a firm grasp of performance data, how it’s gathered and presented to check what their eyes are seeing at the very least. A major source of frustration to me is the “you have to be in the rinks” line of thinking when after so many years from this in my office, I’ve been able to go around the world, watch individual players, see their performance, and go through anywhere from 4-10 players in a single day without having to get in the car, get on a plane, find parking at an arena, and wait between shifts. The efficiency of this process needs to go hand in hand with the networking, research and intelligence that the scouting world also does require. The raw numbers in the database don’t necessarily predict the future, but it helps avoid mistakes when branding and analyzing a player. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve sat back and seen notes from others where I think back to my video records and tracked data and think “If this player does this, then why are they failing at it so many times? Why can they not turn that into better results?” Similarly, if I see criticism of a player, I can easily see cases where the same criticism isn’t levied against someone else, or I can easily see if there is evidence that the criticism isn’t really a huge factor in the grand scheme of a game. You gain a firm understanding of what exactly it is that you’re seeing in a player and how it lines up with what you’re looking for.

Finding out what a player brings and doesn’t to a game in a concrete way is arguably a better question to ask than “is this player any good”, and over the years that has become the major focus of my work. A lot of the hockey operations world seems to function like a corporation without a finance department that is a focal point for business development. Sure, you may have some analysts on staff, but if the business development and executive team run roughshod regardless of what the finance team is presenting, the risk of making poor decisions significantly goes up, and for a long time many organizations didn’t even have a finance department in that example. Coming from someone who worked in the private sector in a situation like this as an analyst, I can tell you that mistakes are easy to make if you’re uninformed, and if anything, data is great for informing you of what you’re looking at. Decisions still need to be made, decisions are difficult, and decisions can still be mistakes (see some of my Team Scouching selections and you’ll definitely see some), but the whole idea is to be better in aggregate from a bird’s eye view. In my view, having this information combined with an eye that has seen the evidence behind where the information comes, and being able to do so on a global, agile and fluid crossover basis as a part of your strategy is an advantage, especially the further on that the draft goes. At the very least it puts you in a better position to understand the marketplace, who brings what, and how to ensure your organization stays oriented firmly in the right direction, even if there isn’t a magic formula that alleviates you of all risk and maximizes output from the draft.

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Hockey is a crazy, nuanced, fast and bizarre sport with a drafting and development process that is just as crazy and bizarre. The NHL almost entirely drafts teenagers, and they can come from all over the world playing at wildly different levels of competition. While it is true on paper that past a certain point the draft becomes a crapshoot but in my experience, it is also increasingly difficult to ignore that there are worthwhile bets that bring strong current value that could grow to buck the trend of the NHL Draft being that crapshoot. Tracked data from performances may not be a golden ticket with plenty of context and nuance that change the story, but it is clearly helpful for sorting through what’s out there, clearly identifying factors you’re looking for, and hedging your bets as much as possible. When seeing factors that lead to greater success, we can also spot some areas that may not have been exploited as much as they could be in the draft, especially when keeping vital factors like level of competition in mind. At the end of the day, a big lesson I’ve learned is that there’s no one way to play the most effective hockey, and so much comes down to the evidence that drives the data being a major deciding factor. That said, there are important takeaways of where to focus your attention such as valuing offensive metrics and aggressive off-puck success.

I’ve said many times that the longer I do this the less I trust my data and the data of others to do the work for me, but I can’t live without it and feel nearly as confident in my analysis of a player. Knowing exactly what it is a player brings to the game and doesn’t is vital, and cutting through whatever conscious or unconscious bias you may have could be the make or break between really nailing those pivotal first few draft picks and spending piles of money developing players into players that are hopefully as effective as those taken later in the draft. In my mind, a 21st century scouting department requires a team of both data literate crossover analysts building an international database and awareness of the entire landscape, with the road warriors doing the work those analysts can’t, acting as the intelligence arm of the team gathering key information and building a more rounded picture of the players you’re examining. Too much of one or the other, and you’re missing out on key information that could be a huge benefit, and with the NHL Draft being more a more valuable tool for player acquisition than ever, any potential advantage should be a welcomed one.

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