Scouching’s 2026 Mock Draft
Note: This was written and submitted to subscribers before the flurry of trades of 1st round picks. Quick editor’s notes have been added.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are complete, and the Carolina “Bunch of Jerks” Hurricanes have gone all the way, coming home with the greatest gift of all. The gaggle of nerds and internet dorks finally crossed the Rubicon and are now Stanley Cup Champions, and they deserve it. The teams that aren’t that one may not be winning first prize, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other prizes to win. In just a few days, the best young hockey players in the world will be hearing their names called, drafted into NHL programs to chase their dreams and pursue a Stanley Cup of their own. As something of an analyst, it would be a terrible mistake to not throw my hat into the ring and make a mock draft of my own, and it also wouldn’t be a Scouching product without an explanation of how I do things a bit differently than others.
My mock drafts are basically two drafts in one, one where I’m trying to put on my NHL hat and draft as if I were in the shoes the existing regime using existing rankings that don’t relate to mine. A second pick follows that would be where I would go if I were running the show, assuming the draft goes the way it’s mocked. My personal picks will also be somewhat guided by actual organizational fit from my understanding of their culture, prospect pipeline, and historical strategy. We’ll have a “Gut Pick” and a “Personal Pick”, with explanations for both. I hope you enjoy and I’d love to hear your feedback on Scouching Live, Mondays at 8pm ET and Thursdays at 2pm ET on YoutTube! Don’t miss our Draft-a-Thon covering every pick over both days too! Book your reminders for Day 1 and Day 2 today!
1st Overall - Toronto Maple Leafs
Gut Pick: Gavin McKenna | Personal Pick: Gavin McKenna
For those unfamiliar, I’ve been using Toronto’s draft picks to “draft” my own team since 2016 to test my takes and see how the players I like develop most over the years. When Toronto’s lottery ball popped up, I won’t lie, part of me became very, very nervous. I’ve been indecisive on McKenna going back to September, and while his game improved over the year, I still have concerns about his style of play that Leaf fans seem awfully quick to forget can bring struggles in the playoffs. That said, McKenna is one of the few truly special, elite skilled talents we’ve seen come along in the draft. In my books, Ivan Demidov gives him a run for the money in recent years, but McKenna’s precise, tactical playmaking game alongside an improving off-puck forechecking game and strong transition quarterback ability is impossible to ignore at this slot. This pick could go a very long way to help the Leafs get themselves back into the playoff picture, but I don’t think he’s a magic solution that masks issues elsewhere in the lineup. There’s also a part of me that is simply curious what packages are available trading the pick to a team that really wants McKenna, and that part of me sees a few universes where the collected value is greater than that of McKenna’s NHL output.
McKenna in Toronto is going to be a fascinating story to follow for both Leaf fans and fans who love to hate the Leafs. McKenna will live every day under a microscope, and behaviour on the ice on more than a few occasions this year has had him thrown out of games and visibly frustrated, which as far as I’ve been told, is a thing that apparently concerns NHL scouts. I’ve been told by a few people that McKenna isn’t #1 on their board, and it doesn’t surprise me, but the upside is just too tantalizing to ignore. He’s been compared to every skilled winger that leans offensively in the NHL, but I always come back to Artemi Panarin, and there aren’t that many Artemi Panarins walking this planet. McKenna should slot in right away with the top units in Toronto, and while he may require development and patience, the only thing that would sway me away from him here would be off-ice interactions that reinforce my worst thoughts over the season, but from all indications, that does not seem to be the case. Rumours are abound that McKenna is going at 1, and I would be quite surprised if it was another name. For me, the upside is too high to ignore and Team Scouching adds another highly skilled winger, but one that adds a tremendous amount of creative offense to offset the more energetic, two-way impact players added over the last few years.
2nd Overall - San Jose Sharks
Gut Pick: Ivar Stenberg | Personal Pick: Ivar Stenberg
There may not be a pick in the top range talked about as widely as the San Jose Sharks this year. After a surprise leap into the 2 slot, the Sharks have been given a gift, and could go a number of different directions. It seems the fanbase is borderline obsessed with the idea of taking a defenseman to fill current NHL roster gaps, but when I look at the team’s forward group, their overall prospect pipeline, and the names available, I still believe there’s room to improve up front, and considering the high-end skilled forwards they’ve added, an excellent complimentary two-way winger in Ivar Stenberg would arguably be just as good an addition as a defenseman.
I can already hear the screaming, so I’ll also put it this way: I’ve seen a ton of hockey this year, and while the defense crop is stronger than usual, I also believe the names talked about at the position as candidates at this pick are somewhat overrated for the slot, and the defenders available later on are not necessarily a huge step down. For example, there’s lots of talk about Chase Reid here, but I see a similar profile as I did in Sam Dickinson back in 2024. I don’t believe in Reid’s skating and skill combination as much as I did with Dickinson, and I was relatively low on Dickinson. Considering Dickinson’s play in the NHL to this point, I don’t think a player like Reid is pushing your team into a playoff spot for quite a while, when I believe the Sharks should be pushing for a playoff spot in 2027. Dickinson is also just 18 months older than Reid, so comparing their trajectory closely is arguably more logical than it sounds considering being drafted two entire draft classes apart. Stenberg drops right in, can play a variety of roles, and complements the players they’ve drafted very well. I don’t think many names not in the NHL are sure bets for major roles either, so aiming to fill perceived gaps in the pipeline also doesn’t really add up to me. Could they go straight for a defenseman? Sure, and that' would be fine. For me, Stenberg just feels like the right fit for the situation the team is in, and the defensive gaps should be filled in an alternative fashion.
3rd Overall - Vancouver Canucks
Gut Pick: Carson Carels | Personal Pick: Tynan Lawrence
The Vancouver Canucks’ selection here is also being endlessly discussed and digested, largely due to the timeline crossover of Caleb Malhotra’s emergence as an NHL prospect, and his father Manny’s hiring as the new head coach of the big club. It’s obviously very easy, convenient, and logical to believe that Malhotra is the guy here, but I simply cannot wrap my head around the actual hockey logic behind doing it. Malhotra went from a middling BCHL centre to being left off the Hlinka Gretzky Cup roster, to a high scoring OHL centre almost overnight, and nobody seems to explain how that’s physically possible. It’s an unprecedented rise, and in my experience, there’s a lot more going on than Malhotra quickly becoming one of the best players available in the span of months thanks to his surroundings in Brantford. I’ve seen a ton of him this year, and I just don’t see it making sense, and you will never convince me that drafting a story is a good idea, especially at 3rd overall. You’re picking athletes, not content.
So who do they pick? Realistically, with Stenberg off the board and trying to think like the Canucks, Carels makes a degree of sense, but they could go any number of directions here. Carels grew on me this year, and he does show defensive habits that have wildly improved over the season, and should project well to higher levels. I’m skeptical his offensive game translates as much as his production would indicate, but he does have very explosive moments with playmaking off the blueline and half wall that could give a solid floor that goes beyond being a defensive player. He’s young-ish for the class, and while I’m cooler on him, I can see why NHL teams value him so highly, and it seems Vancouver is one of those teams.
It might shock fans to see me personally putting Tynan Lawrence here, but I am so certain of my read on how valuable his game could be in the NHL that I simply think the story is completely out of control on him. If anything, the way people talk about Caleb Malhotra is more like how Lawrence plays the game, and watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs and especially how a team like the Carolina Hurricanes play, sometimes pure competitiveness and two-way energy throughout a game is what wins you championships, and Lawrence is a pure-bred winner and I’ve loved every game I’ve seen. People question his hockey sense, but I see plenty of greasy nonsense result in goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs at 5v5, and Lawrence’s numbers offensively aren’t bad by any stretch in my experience. In fact, in my tracking data, the player he lines up with closely in my archive in many ways? Macklin Celebrini. The difference is that a game of Lawrence was tracked with Muskegon, not Boston University, colouring things a bit more favourably, and Celebrini’s raw slot pass volumes are higher. Almost everywhere else, they’re comparable, and as crazy as it sounds, I believe we could be looking back in 10 years at Lawrence being one of the most underrated players in the class with a long history of winning at the highest levels. To be clear, I’m not saying he’s as good as Celebrini, but for the perceived flaws, the actual results paint a different story. In my opinion with Marco Rossi already in Vancouver, those are two foundational competitive players to build a team around that can play on both sides of the puck while also generating good amounts of offense, and I would bet it wouldn’t take long for Vancouver fans to fall in love with Lawrence once his skates hit Rogers Arena ice.
4th Overall - Chicago Blackhawks
Gut Pick: Chase Reid | Personal Pick: Alberts Smits
Another team that is confounding my mind, the Blackhawks have made 54 selections since 2020, and are selecting in the top 10 for the fifth consecutive year. They’ve added a little bit of everything: skill, physicality, finesse, defensemen who can score, defensemen who can defend, pure scorers, the list goes on. In that sense, similar to last year, I have no idea where they’re actually headed, but a defender feels like it makes sense here. Partially because they’ve alternated drafting forwards and defenders at the top of the draft since 2022, but more seriously because I believe that’s where there’s still some work to do with regards to building the NHL roster. They could go a number of directions as a number of strong defenders in various areas of the game are available, and realistically speaking, Chase Reid would be a strong addition that I could see making sense here. He’s got great range to his game and a strong transition touch offensively, something I felt the team sorely lacked in the NHL, and adds an alternative to Kevin Korchinski that may be a bit more projectable as a transition specialist. He augments more defensive names like Vlasic and Del Mastro well, while bringing good upside that could grow into something very interesting that helps round out the roster while also quarterbacking what could be a good first powerplay unit.
Personally, I just adore Alberts Smits and would strongly consider him here. I find that all the things people lauded Artyom Levshunov for are much more evident at this age in Smits, and in ways that I think could be a huge upside bet for the NHL. We all watched him shut down the Canadians at the World Juniors, and shut down the Americans at the Olympics, and while people are questioning his offensive game, I think that’s where the most upside could be unlocked with time. His skating edges alongside his frame are used in such creative and entertaining ways to push into the offensive zone and challenge opponents in scoring areas. With a responsible system and a defensive partner who can help cover for him, he could be a tremendous add for the Blackhawks. The resume is great, he’s been a fascinating offensive generator against men in my experience, and if he’s allowed to play his game, his two-way impact and skating range could be something that Chicago seems to lack.
5th Overall - New York Rangers
Gut Pick: Caleb Malhotra | Personal Pick: Chase Reid
The Rangers aren’t used to picking this high, so I have trouble sifting through what their plans could be, but considering the types of players they seem to develop well and the players considered in this range, Malhotra going here makes a degree of sense. He’s an aggressive puck carrier with quick hands and confidence under pressure which are traits that I think teams have fallen in love with, and the Rangers have a somewhat similar player in Mika Zibanejad who could take a player like Malhotra under his wing and ease into the pro levels quite easily. The Rangers clearly demand off-puck physicality out of their young players, and while that’s a main gap in Malhotra’s current game, that environment could breed growth in that area that could make him a strong two-way presence with projectable traits, even in a playoff scenario. Malhotra is lower on my list than this, but I can see how it could make sense considering the Rangers’ history and the types of players that have performed beyond expectations in their pipeline.
In my personal picks, Reid makes a ton of sense, perhaps bringing a bit of the rock star energy that New York naturally can bring as a culture. He’s more offensive leaning, but the Rangers haven’t not had those guys come and go over the years. The size, range and offensive creativity could be nice pieces to have on the roster, especially if they’re entering a longer term rebuild that results in the sacrifice Adam Fox for futures. For a player with a good developmental runway that could use an environment that brings out a bit more physicality in him, Reid feels like a good pick, but I’ll be fascinated to see where things go for the Rangers at this pick.
6th Overall - Calgary Flames
Gut Pick: Keaton Verhoeff | Personal Pick: Viggo Björck
The Flames have seemingly drafted directly off my list for the last two seasons, especially early on, so we’ll see if it’s three in a row this year. At this slot in reality, I could easily see them take the bet on Keaton Verhoeff. He could’ve easily gone to Victoria and scored 40 goals playing 25 minutes a night and nobody would bat an eye at him being very high on everyone’s list while issues are masked. Instead, he chose North Dakota, not being the guy on the team, and having some struggles along the way. He was asked to do a lot and put in a tough spot, and was absolutely challenged, but in many areas Verhoeff showed some special ability. He’s a patient, tactical defender with much more active feet than others in this cohort, even if the explosiveness and fluidity are rather mixed right now. His stick checking is exceptional and very evident, which you can’t say for a number of defenders out there. He isn’t very physical, but it isn’t really his style. The playmaking in the offensive zone also grew significantly this year, and I believe he could turn into a real dual-threat defender that brings value in a number of areas thanks to high-end tools and a creative mind. He’s a bit of a project, but Calgary can afford to be patient, and he also fills a spot in their pipeline that seems to be a bit lacking. Verhoeff is a bit riskier, but I think the correction on him this year has gone a step too far, and I would bet Calgary is a team that sees that as well.
If I’m running the show though, Viggo Björck is the name still available that I’m psyched to add. A remarkably competitive playmaker who plays bigger than he is, Björck has grown immensely in his game over the last two seasons and there’s definitely room for more in the future. Still young for the draft class, Björck has all the makings of a tactical genius at the NHL level, with energy, and fantastic awareness on the ice of his surroundings and working off linemates exceptionally well. It takes a lot for a pro coach to trust a 5’9ish 17 year old as your #1C, and for a stretch this year, that’s what he was for Djurgården this season. There’s skill here, but his game is about making the right play every time, enabling others, and being as much of a menace off the puck as he can. With the players Calgary has added over the years, their forward group may lack a little bit of size at this point, but you can work on that later because Björck is absolutely worth the swing here.
7th Overall - Seattle Kraken
Gut Pick: Alberts Smits | Personal Pick: Xavier Villeneuve
Maybe this is the year Seattle uses a top pick on a defenseman! I mean, this year, I can’t not see it happening. Some great options will almost certainly still be available here. They’ve made picks in first ten selections in four of the five drafts they’ve participated in, and this will make six in five, and none of them have been defensemen to date. While they’ve ended up with very good names, and have drafted well outside the first round, this year is the year to look at a defenseman, and in my Gut draft, Alberts Smits is still there, and he’s an absolutely perfect fit. Seattle doesn’t really have a defenseman like him either in the NHL or in the AHL or elsewhere. He’s got skating range, skill, confidence, and two-way potential that you just don’t find very often, and he’d be a fantastic addition to the team that might even be able to step in and help right away. The guy did play quite well at the Olympics, World Juniors and World Championship, so a quick look in the fall could very easily be in the cards. From there, who knows, but Smits would immediately become the most exciting defenseman in their already exciting talent pool, and based on the NHL team’s defense corps, could work his way in there on day 1.
Personally, with Smits already gone, I’m going to stick my neck out and suggest Xavier Villeneuve. The Kraken have a surprising amount of rock solid defensive-leaning defensemen on the periphery that are going somewhat underrated like Kaden Hammell and Tyson Jugnauth, and if there’s a defenseman available this year who plays like the best offensive defensemen in the world today, it’s Villeneuve. Any NHL team would love to have a Quinn Hughes, or a Lane Hutson, or a Cale Makar, and Villeneuve has that kind of upside. If anyone can ignite the offense of others, something I believe their defense group has lacked, Villeneuve could easily do it. With a nagging hip injury, a medical check would absolutely be in the cards for me, but on talent alone, he’s been tossed aside by the establishment, but I think that the NHL is repeating the same mistakes they’ve made in the past with players like Villeneuve. Seattle isn’t stupid, and they have an analytics staff who absolutely would be seeing the same information that I’m seeing in my data package on Villeneuve, so if I’m there, this is a name I think you’d be happy to add. Villeneuve is also pretty clearly a strong candidate to be just a year away from NHL ice time assuming his freshman year in Boston goes according to plan. I don’t know if I can say quite the same thing as a number of other defensemen likely to go in this range.
8th Overall - Winnipeg Jets
Gut Pick: Malte Gustafsson | Personal Pick: Malte Gustafsson
The Jets did not have a year for the ages, and stand on the precipice of what may be the earliest stages of their first ever rebuild, and their selection here could be a foundational member of the second generation of Jets that joins an intriguing young group of players still developing that the Jets have gathered since the turn of the decade. They could go any number of directions here but I lean a bit in the direction of sticking with the Nordic theme their picks often take, but aiming for a high upside, strong defensive presence like Malte Gustafsson. If I’m running the show in my personal draft, I’d be hard pressed to look a different direction as well. They seem to love range-y defenders with interesting two-way ability, most notably Elias Salomonsson recently, and while there are names like Lawrence, Björck and even a Suvanto that might be on the radar here, if Gustafsson hits his ceiling, he could be the rock solid dependable player that every team needs. There’s upside, there’s development potential, but there’s a very well refined defensive game already that could be a huge asset. Why not one of those names mentioned earlier? Well, it’s a bit early for Suvanto, and Lawrence crossed my mind, but I get the feeling NHL teams are more freaked out by Björck’s lack of size and Lawrence’s perceived lack of true offensive threat to jump at taking them in the top 10. I don’t necessarily agree, but for the checklist Winnipeg seems to be looking for, Gustafsson wouldn’t be a bad bet.
9th Overall - Florida Panthers Ottawa Senators
Gut Pick: Tynan Lawrence Ethan Belchetz | Personal Pick: Mathis Preston Caleb Malhotra
The Senators love their size, and love dynamic shooting wingers, and after losing Tkachuk, while Belchetz lacks the ruthless physical play of Brady, he brings some serious firepower that could give the Sens a nice pure-scoring boost.
Personally, Malhotra just makes sense. The connections between Ottawa and Brantford are obvious, and I legitimately would consider Malhotra here. The fit feels right, the upside is there, and he’s a strong, confident player with a good developmental runway.
A smart team like Florida has to be thinking about Lawrence here. They’re a fiercely competitive team that has skill in the lineup, and that sounds an awful lot like Lawrence. They very well could trade this pick, but if they keep it, I can easily see a Stanley Cup calibre organization like this jumping on a force of a player like Lawrence. He’s such a competitive player who is a lock to play centre in my opinion, and could be a huge upside bet at this spot in the draft. I gushed about Lawrence earlier, but seeing him in a Panthers jersey in short order just feels like such a good idea in my mind, and I would bet that the teams ahead might be kicking themselves for not seeing the forest through the trees.
With Lawrence gone in my personal draft, I’m going to stick my neck out and put Mathis Preston in here. He just feels like a perfect fit for a place like Florida, while filling a gap I believe they have. He’s a fast, skilled, dazzling player that could be an elite offensive player in the NHL one day, but he has a competitive edge that goes underreported, and a swagger that many in the draft don’t have. An electrifying talent that might be one of the most misunderstood players in the class, Preston has had a strange year, but the numbers on the paper are impressive to say the least when you look under the hood. On talent alone, he’s worth taking in this range, he’s young for the class, and I bet we’re looking at a turnaround season next season wherever it may be. Florida is a place that loves a character, and Preston certainly is one. If it works, it could be an absolute steal. If it doesn’t, the Panthers might still be okay, considering the strange season they had that landed them here. It’s a risk, but I would be comfortable taking him, betting on him, and seeing where it goes, so long as he’s willing to work with the team and teammates to develop and grow into an NHL job over time.
10th Overall - Nashville Predators
Gut Pick: Viggo Björck | Personal Pick: Keaton Verhoeff
The Predators are entering a new era… again. The unexpected departure of General Manager Barry Trotz has given way to a new regime headed by former Colorado Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland and former LA Kings executive Rob Blake, so the expectations of what the team might be thinking are completely up in the air. The Predators at times draft exactly how I would, and at others, the polar opposite. They may be a group with factions in the scouting room, alternating between different strategies, which makes this a tough call. At 10 though, it’s impossible to ignore Viggo Björck, and at this point he has to be a serious consideration for the Predators. They lack a truly high end centre prospect, they’ve drafted and amassed some beef over the years, and there appears to be plenty of help on the way on the wings and on defense. Bjorck could link high powered names together in the future who have bright futures like fellow countryman Felix Nilsson, or college star Ryker Lee among others. He’s a foundational link for the future of the Predators, and brings a skill level and competitiveness that should help the team enter a new era, and I could easily see him flying around Bridgestone in a few years with some real fancy linemates, driving excellent results on both sides of the puck and endearing himself to the Predators faithful.
With Björck gone in my personal draft, Keaton Verhoeff is left over as one of the guys I genuinely enjoy, but just falls down the board because someone has to. He’s a stable, precise and capable defender with dual-threat offensive tools, and if any NHL team out there knows and loves defensemen in the draft, it’s Nashville. They have plenty of range-y, skating-heavy names in the pipeline, and Verhoeff isn’t necessarily that, he certainly could be complementary to a player like that. A great stick-checker with projectable offensive upside, Verhoeff could be a fantastic player to stash away for a few years while Nashville gets their feet set under new leadership and a tumultuous few years.
11th Overall - St. Louis Blues
Gut Pick: Ethan Belchetz Tynan Lawrence | Personal Pick: Caleb Malhotra Carson Carels
My love for Lawrence is not unknown and I think he would be a perfect fit for the Blues. He checks a ton of boxes for players they’ve had over the years in a Brayden Schenn or Robert Thomas who lead with energy, skill and a two-way impact. I could see it happening, but I’ve heard Belchetz is a target of theirs. Ottawa is now a complication.
Personally, with Malhotra also bumping up to Ottawa, I can’t see Preston being the guy here. A rock solid defensive player with good habits and some offensive flash in Carson Carels makes sense though. Realistically he’s gone well before this, but for my personal list, this is a strong range for him. A well-rounded player with a great physical game, Carels has upside, and a great path ahead of him that I’d be fine with if I’m St. Louis here… As much as I love Mathis Preston…
This one just seems to make sense in my head if I’m thinking like the St. Louis Blues. They’re a team that likes to switch gears in the draft, going after skill, defensive ability, size, and all kinds of other varieties of player in a draft. A player like Ethan Belchetz just seems like a St. Louis Blue and I can’t quite put my finger on why. He’s got plenty of assets that they clearly look for, with a great frame with advanced physical development, strength on the puck, net-driven offense, and some slick puck control on the rush that should project quite well. Belchetz projects as a more complimentary two-way presence with some nice offensive upside, and many facets of his game this year drove solid results on both sides of the puck, but I wonder just how much of a role he’ll play the higher up in a lineup he finds himself. He has specific areas of the game that are really impressive, and others where he’s significantly less visible. There’s a well-rounded set of fundamentals there and projecting to the NHL should be relatively clean, and St. Louis amassing a wide variety of players that bring skill, physicality, size, and finishing ability in some way seems like a reasonable match. There are even rumblings in my sphere that Belchetz is a legitimate target here for the team, so that lines up too.
In my personal pick, Malhotra makes sense here for very similar reasons. He’s a centre which gives him a bit of a positional advantage, but I think his transition quarterbacking ability combined with his tenacity under pressure makes him a strong candidate to be an interesting hybrid of various kinds of players in the Blues’ world today. To many, it seems insane to think he’s still available here, but I simply think that this is a more reasonable range to consider Malhotra. There are gaps in his game and there are unknowns, but for a player like him, with the veterans still in St. Louis and how they’ve found success, Malhotra should be able to grow and mature well there. I see him as a valuable offensive leaning centre in the middle of your lineup whose production could fluctuate based on who he’s playing with, and if he ended up picked here, I’d think it was another strong draft decision from the Blues.
12th Overall - New Jersey Devils
Gut Pick: Wyatt Cullen | Personal Pick: Wyatt Cullen
The first unanimous pick in a while, Wyatt Cullen just makes sense for the Devils. A skill-forward coach with a fancy new GM and a pipeline that lacks high-end skill somewhat, Wyatt Cullen adds huge upside and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were drafted before this point in the actual draft. The upside is arguably as high as anyone in the class, and while there are frustrating moments in his game, his youth and time missed this season makes it somewhat more excusable. There’s so much runway with Cullen, and having an NHL veteran of veterans for a dad certainly boosts the stock. The pure skill Cullen shows time and time again is ruthless and creative, with slippery playmaking ability that threads the puck around the offensive zone with ease. His game is pretty offensive zone-focused which is okay, but needs to be either worked on or worked around in order to project reliably in my opinion, but he has the benefit of strong fundamentals and youth on his side. The Devils can be patient if Cullen is the guy, but I wouldn’t be surprised to be seeing his name in the NHL in relatively short order with people wondering how he’s still only 19, 20, or 21 years old down the road considering how much raw skill there is to work with.
13th Overall - New York Islanders
Gut Pick: Adam Novotny | Personal Pick: Carson Carels Mathis Preston
Preston with the Islanders makes so much sense in my head. They love to pick skilled offensive players that other teams have moved on from, and I think they could fall directly into a steal with Preston here. The idea of him teeing up Cole Eiserman or being teed up by Matthew Schaefer or Victor Eklund is just too enticing and at 13, to some it may be a reach, but the idea of adding him to the Islanders growing stable of talent with some swagger, he’s a perfect, easy call for me here.
After being given the gift of Matthew Schaefer this year, the New York Islanders came back to Earth and are back in the hunt for a playoffs spot. While they fell short this year, they’ll still have a shot at a strong name in the draft this year in what looks to be a balanced and intriguing group. Adam Novotny strikes me as a perfect candidate, especially after drafting intense, offensive talents in Victor Eklund and Cole Eiserman. The Islanders still seem to lack a bit of offensive punch and pace, and Novotny brings that in spades. Aggressive, strong on the forecheck, with offensive tools that focus on generating individual scoring chances, Novotny is an impressive player who seemed to turn on the jets down the back stretch of the season, showing more physicality, more pressure application, and more puck distribution that were welcome changes after a somewhat sluggish first half. There are a lot of resonances with the kinds of players the Islanders seem to take swings on, and Novotny could be a very interesting pickup to add to a still somewhat bare prospect cupboard.
In my world, this is the range I think Carson Carels makes sense. It’s a tight group of players in this range, but Carels is a nice addition to the Islanders system, and fits the mold of a number of players that are currently on the big club. To me, Carels projects as a bit more defensive than his numbers might indicate, with strong physical play and anticipatory skill, and while he may be a bit passive and static defending in-zone and on the rush, when he chooses his time to strike, he rarely misses. I’d be quite surprised if he were still available here in real life, but similar to Malhotra, I just don’t value Carels as highly as others, and this feels like a much more comfortable range. With a budding superstar in Matthew Schaefer, more physical defensive leaning presences like Kashawn Aitcheson and Carson Carels are nice foils, both of whom have areas of their offensive game that could chip in in the NHL as well, making them all the more valuable. A strong pickup with a projectable style of play, Carels would make more than a fine addition at this slot.
14th Overall - Columbus Blue Jackets
Gut Pick: Daxon Rudolph | Personal Pick: Elton Hermansson
The Blue Jackets are not shy of going off the board and betting on upside, and while I’m on the record about absolutely not valuing Daxon Rudolph in line with the market, quite a few have provided theses to me that could make me look silly in a few years, and if there’s a team around the range that is willing to set aside issues or common consensus and trust development, it’s Chicago. Last season they added Jackson Smith who has all the elite tools you could want, but questionable areas as well that hamper his projection. Daxon Rudolph is somewhat similar, and as it’s explained to me, if development staff and coaches can get him more engaged, defensively active, and improve his footwork when under pressure, then the upside is there. His point shot is effective, his pass vision is effective and relatively dependable, his offensive zone reads to challenge breakouts is solid, and many areas of my tracking data on him are admittedly strong. I have doubts myself, but I see the argument, and a team like Columbus strikes me as one that will see him in a similar vein to recent defensive picks like Smith and Denton Mateychuk, as offensively skilled defensemen that should be able to drive good results from the backend and develop solid defensive floors that allow them to take on a major role in the future.
In a similar vein, I’d think about Hermansson here. We’re a few years removed from the Kent Johnson pick, and while had a tough season, the potential is still very obvious, and Hermansson might be an option that could provide a boost of top-6 level skill to Columbus’ system. Wyatt Cullen is off the board, but Hermansson strikes me as a somewhat more advanced iteration of Cullen. Highly skilled, highly confident and evasive with a focus on playmaking. Hermansson’s performance against men this season was somewhat variable, but the bright moments were bright, and the overall results in key areas was quite strong for a player his age. He was one of the most highly involved and highly efficient offensive transition quarterbacks in my dataset, with exceptional results passing the puck through the neutral zone. The floor and fundamentals are absolutely very strong, but like many skilled wingers in this class Hermansson’s development will all hinge on maturing his possessions, moving the puck a bit quicker and playing a bit more of a forecheckers game in the offensive zone, but positive signs are everywhere. He was productive with somewhat limited slot pass and scoring chance generation as he is, so if those areas can be honed and focused, the upside could be that well beyond a typical mid-first round pick.
15th Overall - St. Louis Blues (from Detroit)
Gut Pick: Oliver Suvanto | Personal Pick: Adam Novotny
The Blues get just about one of the best realistic outcomes with this pick from the Justin Faulk trade as a late season collapse from Detroit landed them with another lottery ticket, and while they didn’t see their lucky number come up, picking 15th overall in this class could be very, very rewarding if things fall right. With Ethan Belchetz off the board already, Oliver Suvanto feels like such an interesting complement that St. Louis somewhat lacks. Suvanto is a bit of a mirror-universe Dalibor Dvorsky, where Dvorsky was much more shot-forward with good physical tools and lacking high end pace up the middle of the ice, Suvanto is more of a playmaker with good physical tools that may lack high end pace, but brings more intriguing pass vision and practical skill that interests me more than Dvorsky did at this age. He’s confident under pressure, and is extremely young for the draft class. For all the talk of a player like Caleb Malhotra’s growth from a middle-range BCHLer to a top OHLer, Oliver Suvanto jumped straight from the Finnish U18 level to Liiga, almost skipping the U20 level completely. That is not an easy jump, but Suvanto looked strong in short order. While I don’t know if there’s a top six player in Suvanto, he’s still very young, and there are interesting tools to work with, as I found his skill to be somewhat underrated, his physical game improving with increased confidence, and a great mind for forechecking that held my attention. For St. Louis as a pick in the middle of the first round, he’d be a great fit that could pair well with a number of players on the Blues and in their system one day.
Novotny is still here for St. Louis at 15, and with Malhotra already in the stable, Novotny is more of a bet on pure skill and finishing ability while still having a physical edge that I believe the Blues keep an eye out for. We’ve gone over him before so I’ll keep it brief, but the fit is there for me. A nice balance of skill, finishing ability, pace and physicality, Novotny fits the framework for an interesting pickup that could add a nice piece that is somewhat cut from a similar cloth as Jimmy Snuggerud, so having a 1-2 punch of offense there one day sounds like an interesting idea to me.
16th Overall - Washington Capitals
Gut Pick: Elton Hermansson | Personal Pick: Ethan Belchetz
The Capitals are a fascinating team to see drafting over the years. They are all over the map, and they lean into all compass directions hard. When they go for skill, it’s pure, all-out skill. When they go for beef, it’s the beefiest. When they go for smarts, it’s guys who rely significantly there. They may just be identifying players with some sort of truly special area and just dealing with it in a solid developmental system led by a capable head coach. In this class, they could have a choice of a number of various player types, and I have an inkling that Elton Hermansson at this slot seems like a potential option. The skill and speed combination paired with his ability to use it is certainly among the high-end of the remaining players, and that might be all they need to see in order to take the plunge. The Capitals have a way of surprising people, and I could see them going a little wild here with a player they can be a bit patient with, but Hermansson is higher up the hockey ladder and showcasing some serious fundamentals that could be a high-ceiling add to a surprisingly impressive pipeline of NHL prospects.
This is going to sound dumb, but there’s a small part of me that thinks NHL teams have a scouting bias towards players who wear jerseys or colours similar to their own, and I’ll admit at times I’m guilty of that. At 16 though, Ethan Belchetz not only already wears what is essentially a Washington Capitals jersey, but is an obvious fit for the players that Washington seems to target. He brings size, but a relatively fluid skating stride and offensive tools that are relatively rare for a giant at his age. The Capitals often don’t draft high-pace players and focus on players that can tactically pick apart opponents and play an effective team game, and Belchetz fits that mould well. He isn’t slow per-se, but his game is relatively slow, and he gets away with it with puck protection, strong control skill, and flashes of net-driven offense. It may be more of something the Capitals already have, but in this slot it makes a ton of sense and Belchetz would be a nice bet on a team that could do well with him.
17th Overall - Los Angeles Kings
Gut Pick: Ilia Morozov | Personal Pick: Oliver Suvanto
The Ken Holland era in Los Angeles is still relatively fresh, and picking apart their draft strategy might be difficult, but from my perspective LA’s 2025 class seems to line up with the kinds of players that Mark Yanetti has valued over his time there. That being said, I know that GM’s can come into organizations, see perceived issues with the team, and impose some kind of correction through their draft strategy. Even if this isn’t the case with LA this year, I could see the Kings go with a big centre with physical tools, especially with the advent of a prospect like Samuel Helenius, the acquisition of Scott Laughton, the struggles of Alex Turcotte, and the departure of Anze Kopitar. At this slot, whether it’s my personal pick or what I think is possible in reality, the Kings likely have an interesting set of options they could sift through here.
Realistically, I know there are those who really like Ilia Morozov’s game, and over time the case made more and more sense to me. He’s one of a small handful of 17 year olds that played a full season in the NCAA this year which is impressive on its own, but he also put himself in arguably the biggest role he could’ve been offered at Miami-Ohio. The team was okay, but being a centre on a team in that environment is not easy, but Morozov performed admirably and had he played in the USHL, I bet he’d be more universally appreciated. I felt his skating ability and pace of play improved over the season, and while I don’t believe his offensive game is very apparent nor translatable, his smarts moving the puck and using the skill he has is quite impressive. This draft class will be fascinating to track as we have a group of players in an extremely unusual environment, and Morozov arguably played the biggest consistent role for a club, and showed a fundamental floor to his game that could slot into LA’s system well. You could maybe swing harder on some skill here, but teams do prioritize size and centres, and if that’s your goal, Morozov is a neat option here.
18th Overall - Washington Capitals (from Anaheim)
Gut Pick: Mathis Preston | Personal Pick: Ilia Morozov
There are those that are extremely disinterested in Mathis Preston, and there are reasons for that, but for a good team with a great developmental system with two first round picks, Washington taking the plunge here and swinging for the fences would be really, really fun to watch. I’m just imagining a guy like Andrew Cristall teeing up Mathis Preston on a powerplay, or Preston flying around the ice at 5v5 and people being baffled he fell this far to a team as good as the Capitals. He’s in my top 10 with a superstar profile of speed and skill, with underrated competitiveness and budding playmaking ability that could grow immensely over the next few years. The outline of their strategy was articulated in their previous pick, and Preston may not really fall into that, but in my opinion, not everyone has to fall into a cookie-cutter approach, and Preston’s upside is impossible to ignore. From a risk-management and developmental perspective, Washington would be as good a bet as any on arguably one of the most fundamentally talented players in the entire class. Preston is young, plays with swagger, and has as much upside as anyone in the class, and I would love to see what Washington could do with a player like him.
On the flip side, Preston is gone, and in this range I’d fall back into the lower-pace but effective profile Washington gravitates towards and strongly consider Ilia Morozov. The Protas brothers have come along nicely, and Morozov profiles as somewhat similar to those two, but in my view is a bit more fluid on his feet at this age and is well ahead of where both brothers were in terms of level of competition at this age. He’s simple but effective with interesting if limited upside. Combined with Belchetz, Washington adds some great physical tools and upside to their pipeline, which any team these days would certainly welcome, especially a team already knocking on the door of the playoffs like the Capitals are.
19th Overall - Utah Mammoth
Gut Pick: Oscar Hemming | Personal Pick: Oscar Hemming
Another unanimous one here and I’m not exactly sure why, but it just makes sense that Utah would be a team that swings on Hemming here. One of the strangest cases in the year, teams were landing and dumping him like a high frequency trading firm before he decided to just jump straight to Boston College. I would argue he looked well out of his comfort zone this year, but he’s barely eligible for this year’s class, and had he been born less than two weeks later, he would have been the youngest player playing NCAA hockey since 2000. At the Hlinka Gretzky Cup there was a high-end triggerman for the Finnish team showcasing a high-end wrist shot and some interesting physical traits, but lacking a level of pace and puck control that checks boxes in my books. After a bit of time with Boston College I felt Hemming seemed a bit more comfortable, if in a bit of a more limited physical role, but boy was he looking decent at it. He’s huge, is improving on his feet, has the advantage of youth, and has scoring upside since in my work he wasn’t given the opportunity to actually shoot all that much. There are gaps in his game, but Utah can afford a big swing on potential here. They’ve drafted a ton lately, they draft a ton of size, they’re a playoff-quality roster, and there should be no rush to get Hemming into the NHL which makes this pick even more possible. There is no shortage of players with size for Utah to go after here, but in terms of the “what if” question we all love to ask, Hemming is a fascinating one, and around this point in the draft is where he legitimately becomes an interesting bet if I’m thinking both like Utah, and if I were running the show there.
20th Overall - San Jose Sharks Buffalo Sabres (from San Jose via Edmonton)
Gut Pick: Tommy Bleyl | Personal Pick: Tommy Bleyl
I’m not going to lie, part of this comes down to laziness, but the more I thought about it, the more I do really believe that Tommy Bleyl is not only a realistic pick, but one that I think would augment the Sabres well in the future. It may take a while for him to get to town, but he brings a raw, high offense game that could work off and learn from a player like Rasmus Dahlin over time. Dynamic, skilled, and refining his game. defensively, Bleyl would be a fascinating bet here and it wouldn’t shock me to find out that part of the explanation for Buffalo was ensuring they could snag a late riser before everyone else. Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but Bleyl just gives me a weird feeling that something like that may be at play.
Another one where I could see agreement between the Sharks and I, potentially leaping ahead of others and taking the bet on Tommy Bleyl. Sharks fans are yelling and screaming and desperate for a right hand shot defenseman with upside and seem fixated on doing so at 2nd overall, but I’d argue Bleyl at 20 with Stenberg at 2 could bring significantly more upside. There is risk with Bleyl’s profile and he’ll require physical development, but he’s an extremely interesting offensive defenseman with puck rushing ability that puts him up in the top of this class, with interesting offensive zone playmaking. He scratches an itch that San Jose could use, his style of play should fit seamlessly with the good-vibes high skill NHL lineup one day, it’s just that San Jose will have to wait at least two seasons to see him. That being said, I could see him seamlessly jumping into a good role right around the same time as the defensemen everyone wants at 2nd overall. The upside is there, the style of play lines up with their priorities, and landing both him and Stenberg would be a very exciting combination to add to the already exciting lineup.
21st Overall - Philadelphia Flyers
Gut Pick: Maddox Dagenais | Personal Pick: Casey Mutryn
The Flyers are absolutely one of the more entertaining teams to watch draft. Often focusing on beefy physical players with high end skill sprinkled about, there is no shortage of entertaining options for Philadelphia to have. They could go with a Russian like Gleb Pugachyov, but I find that unlikely. I would be very surprised if Maddox Dagenais wasn’t quite high on their list. For a team that jumped on Jack Nesbitt in the Top 15, if you squint, Dagenais is cut from a similar cloth, but likely projects more as a winger and has more advanced fundamentals than Nesbitt at this age. His game revolves around physicality, with simple and effective playmaking, Dagenais was noticeable often this year. He loves to be a tone-setter, but you see flashes of quick hands and skill that catches your attention, especially on the rush. He projects quite simply to the NHL is some role, and Flyers fans will love him. There’s upside, but it might be a bit of a ways away and his hockey sense limitations might hold him back from playing up the middle. Regardless, he’s entertaining and will be annoying to play against to say the least.
For me, I feel much more confident in Casey Mutryn here, and I think fans would love this guy. Big, hulking but surprisingly speedy with a net-driven attitude, Mutryn was a player I was surprised to enjoy as much as I did. His data profile is limited, but where he’s strong, he’s very strong. He’s going to be an absolute nightmare for the opposition with the puck, and when he gets moving, gets low to the ice and attacks defensemen with pace, he’s a freight train. God only knows how far he could go under the wing of the Philadelphia Flyers, but he strikes me as a guy who will go out and just play Flyers hockey, and be quite good at it. There might be more upside and pure skill available, but those players likely have a very difficult time if Mutryn is chasing after them or attacking them with the puck.
22nd Overall - Pittsburgh Penguins
Gut Pick: Jack Hextall | Personal Pick: Jack Hextall
The Penguins stunned everyone but me taking Ben Kindel as high as they did, and he went off and jumped straight to the NHL and looked pretty darn good as the Penguins outperformed expectations and landed themselves in the playoffs. Kyle Dubas and Wes Clark do not care about consensus and do not care what you think. They know what they want, and in my view, they want competitive nerds. This season, Wyatt Cullen was the guy I penciled in as a sure bet for Pittsburgh but he’s almost certainly gone by 22, so changing gears, my crystal ball landed on Jack Hextall as a realistic option. I would be fully supportive of this decision and while I considered them going really off the board and taking Victor Plante, Hextall’s upside in a draft perceived as a bit weak for centres is undeniable. One of the smartest tactical players out there, his off-puck awareness and neutral zone control is really high end, with good moments of finishing ability that didn’t come out as often as I believe he’s capable. He builds a great map of the ice, chips in on both sides of the puck, and is headed to Michigan State University, where you can leave him for a few years to work his way up the lineup and end up a very impressive profile at a valuable position. Smart, precise, tactical, and a classic case of a great mind to build fundamentals around, Hextall might surprise some, but I could very easily see him being a target for Dubas and Co., but I’m always absolutely fascinated to see how reality plays out with that crew.
23rd Overall - Boston Bruins
Gut Pick: Casey Mutryn | Personal Pick: Alexander Command
The Bruins are a tough team to pin down. It seems their strategy has slowly pivoted over the years to value skill while still having a characteristically “Bruins” style of physicality. That physicality was one of James Hagens’ most underdiscussed parts of his game last year, and seeing him in a Bruins uniform this year showcased that in my opinion. Casey Mutryn is a very interesting bet for me here if I’m Don Sweeney. While not as skilled as Hagens at all, he is a physical monster out there while also having a decent level of skill in tough areas of the ice. The upside potential to develop a projectable NHL-style offensive game is very intriguing to me, and for a team that saw value in a guy like Justin Brazeau, the Bruins might see similar potential in Mutryn. He checks a lot of boxes I think the Bruins look for, and at this range of the draft, getting an entertaining everyday NHL winger with a punishing forechecking game sounds like solid value.
In my personal picks, Mutryn is a Flyer, which is unfortunate for the Bruins, but I would be curious about pitching a style of player that encompasses where I think the Bruins are headed with their strategy in Alexander Command. I’m lower on Command than this slot, but he is skilled, very competitive and from all accounts, NHL teams love his personality. That seems right up the Bruins alley, and like others this year, they can afford to be patient. I would be leaving him overseas or in college hockey for a few years, letting him grow and physically develop as much as I could, because his style of play demands a very strong base in order to project to a good NHL role, but if it worked, it would certainly be entertaining thanks to the skill and effort Command shows.
24th Overall - Vancouver Canucks (from Minnesota)
Gut Pick: Alexander Command | Personal Pick: William Håkansson
There is plenty of chatter that Vancouver is looking at Command, and if he’s available here I could easily see them doing it. After adding an interesting defenseman at 3 in Carson Carels, a competitive Swedish centre like Command does make a level of sense around here. Frankly there’s a part of me that thinks he’s going to be gone by now, but the edginess of his game is apparent, with a solid skill/skating base that can be developed. He’s a bit of a lite-version of Braeden Cootes, and if his game takes a leap like Cootes’ game did this year, the Canucks could end up with some really nice depth up the middle of the ice.
Sending Command to the Bruins at the previous pick leaves me wondering what Swedish player the Canucks could add to the stable, and with Tynan Lawrence already a Canuck at 3, big defenseman William Håkansson would be a very interesting option for me here. I’ve been high on Håkansson all year, thanks to strong skating range, efficient defensive ability and flashes of skill and offensive potential make him very intriguing as a later first round pick. I think he’s one of the more undervalued pure defensive players available, and offsets a young player like Zeev Buium well. The Canucks need more than just these two to turn the ship around, but Håkansson adds a dimension that could combine with a number of existing options in the system, and he could be one that finds his way into the NHL sooner than others in this range. He may be a player Vancouver could land in the 2nd round, but in my books he’s a talented player with defensive tools that should project well, adding Håkansson would be a nice part to add to the future Canucks engine.
25th Overall - Seattle Kraken Ottawa Senators(from Florida via Seattle via Tampa Bay)
Gut Pick: Ryan Lin Maxim Sokolovskii | Personal Pick: Adam Valentini
I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist. It really does seem like the chatter is percolating that he’s going to be a first round pick, and if any team is going to jump at a guy like Sokolovskii, it’s Ottawa. Perhaps Utah, but Sokolovskii has a relentless brutality and goonishness in his game that the Senators seem to really like to have. They simply do not draft smaller players very often, and I can only imagine where NHL teams think Sokolovskii could go. I certainly wouldn’t do it this early, but it would be really fun to see a team take a swing. Considering Ottawa just added four picks to play with, taking a giant swing on a giant would be really fun and fascinating to see develop. If anyone needs and could grow from development this year, it’s Sokolovskii.
I’m leaving Valentini here on my personal list. I think he’s got that grease the Senators love, but with a side of skill, finishing ability and pace that could really suit a young offensive group like Ottawa. He’s aggressive, grittier than you’d expect, and is coming off a strong freshman year as a 17 year old. A good summer with strength training and some on-ice tweaks could give him a really exciting role in Ottawa one day.
The Kraken’s second first round pick will be an interesting one as they have a number of different interesting pathways to go, but adding another high-ceiling defenseman who likely will be available here could pay some serious dividends. They can take afford to take on a bit of risk thanks to their relative strength drafting over the years, and Lin has some serious risk-reward potential. I worry about his skating ability projecting into a role he’ll need to have at the NHL level, and his numbers in general I’ve tracked aren’t too exciting, but you see signs of an impressive offensive defender in Lin. Smart positionally, deceptively skilled and creative with his neutral zone passing, he has some high-end traits that are a nice framework to build around. There are some safer defenders they could go with here, but Lin feels like he’s up their alley as a Western Hockey League player showcasing flashes of upside and a bit of a modern approach to the game. That approach might turn some off, but a team like Seattle may see the potential Lin has, and adding him after Smits gives them two very interesting options in the future that solidifies their pipeline significantly.
In my personal pick, Villeneuve is a huge add for them, and another defenseman here is tempting, but I think an Adam Valentini could be a guy that sneaks up their list and end up a very good fit. Seattle does seem to lack hardworking, pesty aggressive players in their system regardless of position, and Valentini brings that along with real skill, quick hands, and showed relatively well for a 17 year old playing on an elite college program. There were definitely growing pains in his game translating to the NCAA, and those issues may also take some time to solve, but he has a fundamentally competitive style of play that I can see being a valuable option at the 25th slot. For Seattle, it could make sense to buy low and hope that a few more years in college will turn him into the dynamic offensive threat he certainly looks like he could be.
26th Overall - New York Rangers (from Dallas)
Gut Pick: J.P. Hurlbert | Personal Pick: Ryan Lin
From a strong, offensively talented centre in Caleb Malhotra to a smaller, skilled and offensive winger, J.P. Hurlbert being a Texas native being drafted in the first round by a pick belonging to the Dallas Stars is a fun coincidence. Genuinely though, I do believe that the Rangers could take a good look at Hurlbert here. They went after a finishing-oriented skilled winger in Gabe Perreault a few years ago, but you need more than one of those to win, and Hurlbert has shown strong capabilities in key areas that you need to generate offense in the NHL. Agile, daring and skilled, Hurlbert could be a nice addition to play with some teammates with more of a physical edge, or more of an open ice puck transportation skill that could fill some of the gaps in his game. Potentially a productive player, Hurlbert is a nice bet on upside and skill here and I could see the Rangers taking the slow route with him. I thought about putting a guy like Juho Piiparinen here, but I would be willing to bet there’s a strong chance he’s available for the Rangers’ next pick, and their pipeline does still lack a degree of skill that their NHL team seems to lack at the moment.
In my world, the Rangers still have Adam Fox floating around (… for now), so why not draft the guy that people are projecting as a potential regeneration of the guy? In my opinion, Adam Fox is one of a rare class of defenseman, one where there just aren’t any others like him, so I have doubts about Lin “simply becoming Adam Fox”, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. The way he uses his feet and skill in combination is very impressive, with a tactical offensive game that times things well and is aggressive when called upon. The Rangers added Reid at 5 for me, and adding a less range-y offensive weapon gives the Rangers two swings at an important NHL job. I have more limited confidence in these guys that they hit their absolute ceilings, but if they do, you’ll be glad to have them, especially if both work out. At 26, Lin in New York would be a very interesting pickup with a great mentor to be pasted to for the next few years.
27th Overall - Buffalo Sabres San Jose Sharks
Gut Pick: Adam Goljer | Personal Pick: Victor Plante Adam Goljer
Honestly, I think Goljer would be an awesome add here in any case. A big, young, range-y right handed defender checks a lot of boxes that Sharks fans have been screaming about, and for a defenseman who can actually defend and project as a strong player in that area, Goljer shows a lot of promising signs. While he’s still learning on the puck management side of the equation, Goljer played a ton in his own end, got plenty of practice defending, and showcased some really impressive tools that can be difficult for kids his age. At least defensively, I don’t think he’s too much of a downgrade over all the guys people are looking at 25 picks before this one.
The Sabres drafted a giant Czech defender last year in the top 10, and have drafted other giants in the draft in recent years, and I would be willing to bet they’re thinking about another big defender in this range, but one with a more skating-heavy style of play that focuses on efficiency more than physicality and raw offense. Adam Goljer has been all over the hockey world this year playing a huge role internationally for Slovakia, as well as plenty of minutes on a team that barely escaped relegation from the Slovak top division. To me, his team’s quality is a factor in his lack of production and it was not for lack of trying, but a diverse, dangerous game in the offensive zone is not in his wheelhouse right now. Goljer is just a young, big defender with really impressive mobility and and effective defending instincts without needing to overcommit to a physical game. There are rough patches in his game, but I think the developmental path could be very positive, even if it takes a bit of time for him to get there.
I’m going off the board here. The Sabres aren’t usually ones to do so too often, but I would absolutely love to see Victor Plante in a Sabres jersey one day. He’s almost certainly not going to be a first round pick in reality, but if you like Zach Benson and thought his playoff performance was impressive, Victor Plante is arguably cut from a very similar cloth. Admittedly not a big player, Plante more than makes up for it with an impressive combination of raw compete, quickness and skill that drove very good results in my experience. I don’t think he’s a traditional top 6 forward but he strikes me as a smaller guy that will earn his way into the NHL eventually. Teams have drafted all of his brothers outside the first round and they all have tended to take some huge steps as they age, and I would argue Plante is the most impressive of them all at this age. Tenacious, non-stop energy can take you a long way these days, and a guy like Plante down your lineup for a playoff-quality team could be a very valuable asset, especially with the offensive ability he’s shown this year.
28th Overall - Montreal Canadiens
Gut Pick: William Håkansson | Personal Pick: Gleb Pugachyov
I don’t have a clue what the Canadiens are thinking at this point in the draft. They traded a few picks for Noah Dobson last year, and trading another first rounder for some help today is probably not out of the question, but at this range the names available are a bit more on the side of rounding out your lineup with solid assets that can play clear, important roles, and William Håkansson seems like a logical pickup. The obvious answer here would be Xavier Villeneuve, and I’d love to see it, but a big part of me thinks the Habs will skip over him due to the presence of Lane Hutson already on their top pair, and a perceived weak end to his season. If it happened, it’d be awesome, but I don’t think I see it. Håkansson would be a very interesting piece to put in the pipeline that you can stash in Europe for some time, letting him play a bigger and bigger role, bringing him along slowly and really finding his comfort zone before coming over for a North American job. He’s got great range, very good defensive instincts and execution, and has shown flashes of offensive upside here and there that could grow with time. His floor is strong, the defense group in Montreal might look quite different by the time he’s ready, and I think for the types of young defensemen already floating around, Håkansson is a nice stylistic piece to add that has intrigue for something more in the future.
In my world, I would absolutely love it if Montreal went for Gleb Pugachyov. He is simply not something they have much much of. Ruthlessly physical with strong skating speed and projectable energy, Pugachyov would be an absolute riot to watch at the Bell Centre and I would imagine he’d endear himself to the city immediately. I do wonder about his puck management and offensive projection, but where he’s strong goes a very long way. He’s thrown some of the biggest hits I’ve seen this year, and there are some nice moments moving the puck that could bring some promise in the future, but at the very least, getting an entertaining physical piece that can play in various scenarios on the team sounds solid to me at this range. The Habs have a little bit of everything after their rebuild, but Pugachyov brings something that is still a bit behind the rest of the organization.
29th Overall - St. Louis Blues (from Colorado)
Gut Pick: Nikita Klepov | Personal Pick: Juho Piiparinen
In another year where St. Louis has three first round picks, they should be able to find themselves in a good position to make some interesting picks, even this late in the first round. Belchetz and Suvanto are the well-balanced, physical names they’ve added that have a degree of offensive upside, but this is a team that also swings on skill, and Nikita Klepov could be a nice bet here. I’m more skeptical of Klepov, but if he’s properly insulated by some bigger and rangier players with a bit more of a reliable physical game, Klepov could be a strong offensive zone weapon for the Blues. He’s got plenty of skill and pace in his game, a wicked shooting ability and produced a tremendous amount on a Saginaw team that had a tough season. If he hits, he’ll hit hard. Part of me thought of putting JP Hurlbert here, but it seems like some NHL folks are lower on him, even if they may see him as a similar case as Klepov. I think there’s jam in Klepov’s game that St. Louis will like, and bet that it’ll work out one day, especially if he’s the third name off their board in this class.
On the other hand, the St. Louis Blues are not afraid of boring, effective defensemen in the draft, but they usually tend to draft those who are actually somewhat good at it. Piiparinen is a defender with strong range under his feet with pro-level defensive instincts, and when he keeps his game simple, his game is effective. Malhotra, Novotny and Piiparinen gives the Blues three strong options at three different positions that all bring an interesting hybrid of competitiveness, skill, and efficiency that could help round out the lineup in somewhat short order. There is no shortage of interesting options cut from the same cloth as Piiparinen, but he’s always been one that I feel projects well into a role, even if it isn’t the most exciting on. Guys like Piiparinen that can really play at the NHL are very valuable, and with his youth and experience in Liiga this season, he’s got a bright future ahead of him.
30th Overall - Calgary Flames (from Vegas)
Gut Pick: Xavier Villeneuve | Personal Pick: Adam Goljer Simas Ignatavicius
With Goljer gone now, the big Lithuanian Simas Ignativicius makes sense here for me if I’m Calgary. Yeah, they’ve drafted a lot of speedy skill in recent years, but they lack some good complimentary guys that can slow the game down, work off of what’s around them on the ice, while playing with a bit of a physical edge. Ignatavicius is not quite there yet, but he did play a full year at the top division of Swiss hockey, which is no small feat. A big, resilient and smart puck mover who is willing to sniff out scoring opportunities in front of the net, at 30th this year, considering who’s available in my personal picks, he could be a projectable guy who could play well off of some of the fancier names they’ve picked up over the years.
Calgary gets handed a high-ceiling gift here and swings on Xavier Villeneuve. I think it is very possible he's drafted this late, if in the first round at all, but Villeneuve would be a fantastic add to augment their defense group even with Zayne Parekh already there. His skating and skill combination is absolutely elite, and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with two elite offensive players in your top-4 and making it work. Players like Villeneuve don’t come along often, and Calgary clearly is trending towards drafting for upside, skill and pace of play these days. If he’s still available here, I would be begging and screaming to pick him up, and I bet Calgary would be giving him a good look. Even if he’s a miss at this range of the draft, he’s worth the swing, and there’s plenty already in the system that can help the team take some good steps relatively quickly.
Villeneuve is gone in my world, and if I’m there, I think I’d go a bit of a different direction to where they’ve gone in recent years and take defensive-leaning Adam Goljer here. The range of his game is very strong, he’s had pro experience this year with plenty of minutes, and his diverse defensive capabilities are an interesting combination to bet on. He’s a bit of a project, but the Flames have time, and already have amassed a few names that could potentially be a good partner for a player like Goljer.
31st Overall - Carolina Hurricanes
Gut Pick: Gleb Pugachyov | Personal Pick: Brek Liske
They’re trading the pick because they’re Carolina so who cares.
Seriously, I can’t help but think that Pugachyov will be an option here. I can just imagine Rod Brind’Amour absolutely loving what he brings to the game with the beefy energy and ruthless physicality that has become his trademark. He would fit in seamlessly with their forecheck-heavy style of play, and getting anything in this area of the draft would be a benefit. They often draft upside and skill, and could very well go this direction again, but maybe, just maybe, this is the year they might go for a player that actually plays like the Hurricanes that don’t get the fanfare that the skilled guys get.
For me, Carolina loves to go a bit off the board here and there, and watching them during the playoffs, and watching Everett in their playoff run, Brek Liske just feels like a guy that Carolina would love to add. A defender with excellent smarts for the position with a good skating base and strong pass vision, he doesn’t necessarily jump off the rink at you, but he’s one of the guys who could be one of those players who pops up on the right team that trusts his tools and he ends up playing a ton of minutes. One of the rare right-handed defenders found playing on the left side of the ice, he was put in a difficult role for the Silvertips this year and continued to look rock solid in every game. He takes care of the puck well but competes in intelligent ways, and I would not be surprised to see the Hurricanes jump the queue and draft an efficient defender who fills a bit of a gap in their developmental pipeline.
32nd Overall - Ottawa Senators
Gut Pick: Jaxon Cover | Personal Pick: Adam Andersson
Closing out the first round, the Ottawa Senators. They are simultaneously one of the strangest and least predictable teams in the league, but also oddly predictable in their focus and valuation regarding raw size. There are options here that are likely, and part of me just wanted to take the easy way out and toss Maxim Sokolovskii in here, but I have to believe that the Senators see a more interesting upside case in Jaxon Cover. He certainly doesn’t lack size and a competitive streak. He’s confident under pressure and underratedly skilled. He can drive into the offensive zone and open up passing lanes with his feet and skill level to make some interesting plays here and there. He’s a project to say the least, so maybe the Sens will prioritize someone who could come along quicker considering where they’re at in their pipeline, but the patience could be worth it. He’s a player I’d want to see another year or two of at the OHL to iron out his game and boost his fundamentals, but I think the competitiveness and physical energy in his game indicates a good development curve as a projectable winger with important NHL tools.
If they really wanted to go off the board and get weird, I would think about a big, mobile centre with good two-way impacts and a budding offensive game in Adam Andersson. There are a ton of ingredients that are just beginning to scratch the surface of what he’s capable of, and while you may be able to snag him a bit later, I think he’s a player that could be worth drafting here if he hits. His ability to play a physical game while also with strong puck control and flashes of strong play in tough spots on the ice, Andersson is an option that I think just gets better and better over time. Last season a guy like Tinus Luc Koblar looked like he was quite a ways away, and he’s taken a huge leap, even if he isn’t the most productive player out there. Based on where Koblar was last year, I think Andersson is fundamentally more advanced, and shows a lot of tendencies and traits that I think could work in Ottawa one day.
Here are the picks I’d personally push for if I were with the given team:
Toronto - Gavin McKenna
San Jose - Ivar Stenberg
Vancouver - Tynan Lawrence
Chicago - Alberts Smits
NY Rangers - Chase Reid
Calgary - Viggo Björck
Seattle - Xavier Villeneuve
Winnipeg - Malte Gustafsson
Ottawa (from Florida)- Caleb Malhotra
Nashville - Keaton Verhoeff
St. Louis - Carson Carels
New Jersey - Wyatt Cullen
NY Islanders - Mathis Preston
Columbus - Elton Hermansson
St. Louis (from DET) - Adam Novotny
Washington - Ethan Belchetz
Los Angeles - Oliver Suvanto
Washington (from ANA) - Ilia Morozov
Utah - Oscar Hemming
Buffalo (from SJ) - Tommy Bleyl
Philadelphia - Casey Mutryn
Pittsburgh - Jack Hextall
Boston - Alexander Command
Vancouver (from MIN) - William Håkansson
Ottawa (from Everyone) - Adam Valentini
NY Rangers (from DAL) - Ryan Lin
San Jose (from BUF) - Adam Goljer
Montreal - Gleb Pugachyov
St. Louis (from COL) - Juho Piiparinen
Calgary (from VGK) - Simas Ignatavicius
Carolina - Brek Liske
Ottawa - Adam Andersson
To Recap, my gut feel on where the teams could actually go:
Toronto - Gavin McKenna
San Jose - Ivar Stenberg
Vancouver - Carson Carels
Chicago - Chase Reid
NY Rangers - Caleb Malhotra
Calgary - Keaton Verhoeff
Seattle - Alberts Smits
Winnipeg - Malte Gustafsson
Ottawa (from Florida) - Ethan Belchetz
Nashville - Viggo Björck
St. Louis - Tynan Lawrence
New Jersey - Wyatt Cullen
NY Islanders - Adam Novotny
Columbus - Daxon Rudolph
St. Louis (from DET) - Oliver Suvanto
Washington - Elton Hermansson
Los Angeles - Ilia Morozov
Washington (from ANA) - Mathis Preston
Utah - Oscar Hemming
Buffalo (from SJ) - Tommy Bleyl
Philadelphia - Maddox Dagenais
Pittsburgh - Jack Hextall
Boston - Casey Mutryn
Vancouver (from MIN) - Alexander Command
Ottawa (from Everyone) - Max Sokolovskii
NY Rangers (from DAL) - J.P. Hurlbert
San Jose (from BUF) - Adam Goljer
Montreal - William Håkansson
St. Louis (from COL) - Nikita Klepov
Calgary (from VGK) - Xavier Villeneuve
Carolina - Gleb Pugachyov
Ottawa - Jaxon Cover
