The Final 2026 NHL Draft Ranking

We’re so back. Another year has passed, and of all teams, the Carolina Hurricanes have won themselves a Stanley Cup with a dominant playoff run. We’re at the finish line, and after hundreds of tracked games and many more watched, it’s time for my final NHL Draft ranking.

I don’t believe I’ve been as excited to see what happens with an NHL Draft class as I am with this one. Sentiments on the team side are very negative from what I can tell, and on one hand while I can somewhat agree in a way, I feel like it’s been years since team-side people have been “excited” about a draft class. I’m of the belief that this class is filled with players that could be interesting role players with strong development potential. Certainty and ceiling may be somewhat low, but I would also argue that that’s just another day on the job projecting young athletes into the fastest, most physical, and most skilled league in the world. Teams could do some real damage in this class with a variety of strategies. I’m of the belief that this class is much closer at the top than is advertised and the gap in my top 10-12 players is extremely, extremely thin and can change depending on which side of my mouth I start brushing before bedtime. Gavin McKenna is a great player, but I think there is plenty of potential for things to get interesting and turn out very, very differently over the next 10 years. I’m excited to find out regardless of my thoughts, and I hope you all enjoy the process on the way there!

Before we get into the list, it might be helpful to take the time to briefly outline my philosophy so you can get in my head a little bit and understand where I come from a little better when I see the game. If you take 10 different evaluators, you’ll probably get some differences in priorities and preferences, so knowing what you’re getting into should add to the experience. At my core, I focus on possession. Hockey is a game in two fundamental states. You have the puck, or you don’t. The ultimate goal should be to find players who are as good at gaining and maintaining possession in some way, getting the puck into a desirable location, and getting the dang thing into the net as much as possible. In my view, the priority should be in that order. You can’t have the third aspect without the second, and you can’t have the second without the first. As such, I see speed, tenacity, competitiveness, and quickness as key, both mentally and physically. I don’t care so much about how big you are, how good of a shooter you are, how hard you hit, I just care about what you do on the ice and if you’re moving the needle in the right direction. In my experience, the best young needle movers with regards to competitiveness, pace, and creativity are the ones of who are often hardest to find when they grow up big and strong to be NHL players one day. I value players who elevate who they play with more than anything. They’re dependable every shift, they're focused on the ultimate task of the game situation, and they think creatively to make baby steps happen that ultimately lead to scoring chances, and ideally some goals go in here and there.

I’ll also note that the positions listed (outside of the imaged lower tiers) are almost universally those from the games I’ve specifically watched and tracked of these players. A defenseman is listed by either handedness or the side of the ice they play on should it be the opposite to his natural shooting side (i.e., RSD is a left handed defender playing on the right side).

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Before we get into it, a huge thank you to all my supporters, subscribers contacts, friends and family for all the support through the year. Everything helps immensely and I consider myself incredibly lucky to be able to do what I do. It’s a pleasure to put in the work and put my thoughts out there and it’s awesome that people take the time to read and support what I do. A big, big thank you. You rule.

The public ranking writeup also includes per-player analysis on the first four tiers of the class. The full version is available to Scouching.ca subscribers with writeups on 100+ players!

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Tier 1 - The Special Ones

I started the year as a McKenna doubter, and to an extent at this point in the year I still am, but the talent, upside and pure skill is undeniable. Players like him are just not available very often, and he has some special qualities on the ice that could make him a superstar. I also believe he improved over the course of the season with his off-puck reads, anticipating play, and defending in the offensive zone more actively, which is absolutely a step in the right direction. His crossovers and speed generation to get up the ice also improved from where it was with Medicine Hat, and the creativity is still as astounding as it always has been. If I’m Toronto, you have to take the plunge and hang on to see where it goes.
That being said, I could see myself swayed to look in a number of other directions here if off-ice experiences with him were not what was expected. His track record of being thrown out of games and objectively frustrating on-ice play is still worrisome, and some of my worse viewings were against hard, fast physical teams at the end of the year like Wisconsin who shut down McKenna’s offensive abilities a bit too easily. His shot selection is also not projectable as it is, which is another concern in my experience, but in the right environment, he could absolutely thrive. An Artemi Panarin comparison is apt to me, and with some physical finishers on his line, he could thrive. Luckily Toronto has Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies to play him with. I don’t believe McKenna saves the Leafs, at least not immediately, but he certainly helps, and there aren’t many players in this class that I would say could step right in and help as much as McKenna should with Toronto. It’s either going to work and be awesome, or it won’t, and the Saga of the Leafs will continue into another era. I don’t think there’s any in-between.
Looking back at my video this year, I still find myself astounded with the maturity and refinement already evident in Stenberg’s game. He just plain understands the game at a high level, and is so effective in so many areas. He doesn’t waste his shooting opportunities, he’s patient with the puck without causing problems, he’s simple but effective with his playmaking, and dominates the neutral zone offensively with great passing and carrying ability. His hands are soft enough to receive complicated passes effectively, and while there isn’t much of a physical game to speak of, there’s more there than McKenna, and his neutral zone defending is a bit more effective.
That sounds awfully positive, so why is he at #2 behind McKenna? I still wake up in the morning and am not totally sure. They’re entirely different brands, and in my opinion it depends on what you value most. For me, there’s just something special and truly elite about McKenna’s skill and passing ability that I just don’t see in Stenberg as much. Stenberg has always reminded me of a Seth Jarvis-type of do-it-all winger who you love having, but would you rather have that or an Artemi Panarin? It may be debatable, but at the end of the day you have to pick one. It’d really come down to the interview process I have zero insight into to fill the gaps here, so I have to lean towards the rarer, higher end talent that McKenna shows, but whoever gets Stenberg is getting a heck of a diverse winger that can do a ton for you on the ice. Smart, refined, tactical, efficient, it’s all there, and fundamental improvement to his strength and boardwork/evasion will only be added dimensions that unlock more and more upside over time.
I’ve taken a lot of crap for sticking to my guns on Lawrence, and I get it. People worry about his “hockey sense”. He got “grilled” at the combine over his decision to go to Boston University. Some have dropped him into the 2nd round at this point. After watching the Stanley Cup Final, and seeing how the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights got there, I simply can’t wrap my head around how someone like Lawrence is an instantly desirable asset for an NHL team. He’s relentless, with immense speed through open ice, with insanely good forechecking results, a tireless physical game, and great two-way impacts that are so far beyond so many in this cohort. He has frustrating tendencies in the offensive zone I guess, but his shot selection improved after leaving Muskegon, and he drives the net with the puck in a way that should be able to work in the NHL. He pushes defenders onto their heels, dictates the game with the puck on his stick, and gives his opponents no time to think. Some have said he may be more of a winger, but he’s exactly the type of player through the neutral zone going both directions that I personally would love to have up the middle of the ice. The skating base, shooting ability, growing playmaking results, and 200-foot effort with strong results are all an excellent combination to have in my opinion.
It’s very frustrating to me that we live in a sport that is seemingly built on testing yourself, being mature, and being fierce, and when a kid starts the season injured finishes school early, joins an underperforming college team as a top six centre midway through the season as a 17 year old, he gets torched and tossed aside. To me, that’s asinine, especially considering how good the NCAA has gotten in recent years. Lawrence could’ve stayed in the USHL, scored 40 goals, and dominated with a very talented Muskegon team, so where would he be ranked had he done that? He chose not to, he put himself in a tough spot, and just as he was getting a feel for the game there, BU’s season ended. I’m sticking my neck out on Lawrence at this point, but he just plays like a hockey player with that extra gene in his DNA that separates the men from the boys once the playoffs hit. He may never be the 100 point scorer McKenna might be one day, but in a playoff series, is there an argument that Lawrence would make McKenna’s life miserable? I absolutely believe he would. Lawrence rules, and if you can snag him anywhere past 10, I would be thrilled to add him and push him to be the potentially dominant player he could be from day 1.

Tier 2 - Basically Tier 1B

Tiers are weird, I really don’t believe these guys are that far behind the top group, but it would be tough to convince me to take these guys in the top 3. Viggo Björck falls short, and I mean just short of the top tier for one simple reason. I went back and watched a few games of him, then watched a few of Lawrence, watched my clips of both, and came to the conclusion that I just think there’s more of a floor to Lawrence and his two-way game than there is with Björck. I think there is an easy case to be made that Björck catches up and potentially surpasses Lawrence, but that’s an unknown I’m not comfortable with. At the end of the day with how both are seen, it may be possible to just get both outside of the top 10 and see what happens, which feeds into my thought that this could be a fascinating draft to look back on in a decade
Björck is a top-end competitor who has grown by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons, gaining a step of speed and confidence at the highest level of European hockey after a bit of a questionable debut on the wing for Djurgården. Before too long he was playing centre, and looking pretty darn good doing it. An exceptionally smart visionary with the puck, slicing and dicing through traffic with head fakes and tricky skill Björck was an excellent play facilitator at the SHL level after a few months and just continued to look better and better. I think he’s more than competitive and smart enough to play high in an NHL lineup up the middle, but the team that drafts him has to be ready to develop him there and be patient. I’m not sure he projects as well as a winger as his game along the boards and as a reception target in the neutral zone were not really major hallmarks for me. He’s a supportive defensive zone presence who can snag loose pucks and get a great head of steam going on breakouts, with pass lane creation and awareness skill in open ice that any modern centre needs. On top of it all, he goes to the net and hunts for pucks, he grinds, and he’s just never one to be overlooked. His brother is quite a bit taller and his family in general is larger, so there could be growth potential. If we talk about certain players with how far their development could take them, not offering the same courtesy to Björck sounds like a mistake. What if in 12 months instead of listed at 5’9”, he’s 5’11”? Does anyone care? It seems that’s entirely possible, especially considering how young he is, but even if he doesn’t grow, I think there’s enough there to become a pretty darn good NHLer with enough time and patience.
I am a strong believer that Alberts Smits has some excellent potential as an NHL defenseman. I’ve seen people say he had bad combine interviews, so it’s odd that he was then given the EJ Maguire Award of Excellence for character and commitment to the sport, won by such known draft busts as Travis Konecny, Nico Hischier, William Eklund, Michael Hage, Michael Misa and more. Maybe he’s the next Brett Leason or Zayde Wisdom, but none of these kids seem to come with baggage regardless of playing ability.
Smits was tested in the Olympics and held back some of the elite of the elite while quarterbacking a powerplay. He was tested at the World Championships and didn’t look out of place. I’ve seen people call Smits a defensive projection but in my opinion that sells him remarkably short. His skating ability gives him so much potential if it can be refined a bit from here, because the offensive game is really, really interesting. He’s aggressive, attacks scoring areas on and off the puck, and plays a style of play that is definitely not for every team out there, but if you draft him to coach the aggressive offensive style out of him, you’re going to probably ruin him. He needs to be given some freedom in a system that can adapt around him, but he isn’t reckless. The numbers tracked on him were far from poor, and that’s on a team that barely escaped relegation this year in Liiga. Smits is big, mobile, offensively aggressive, and I think he could go a long, long way with his game over time with the right guidance. A bad team might try to turn him into Adam Larsson and end up with Rasmus Ristolainen, but a smart team might try to turn him into Brent Burns and end up with Roman Josi if things break right. I love his style and think it’s so different but so interesting for the modern game, and can see him being an awesome pickup for whoever lands him.
Preston gets traded to the Vancouver Giants, one of the even less successful offensive teams in the WHL than the Chiefs team he left, and in the limited time he had with them, he had points on well past 40% of the goals the team scored. Preston remains an absolute offensive machine, and carries himself with a swagger that clearly a lot of NHL teams have a distaste for, but in my books, as long as he can walk the walk on the ice, he’s got superstar upside. If I’m an NHL team, I’m making the bargain with him of “We really, really believe in you, but we have to play ball with us on getting you there”, because he is a frustrating player in some shifts, but the results in so many areas continue to be immaculate. An elite shooter with a growing playmaking mind, Preston is an electrifying combination of speed, skill, and underrated defensive compete that I think makes him one of the most undervalued prospects in the entire class. I’ve seen folks compare him to Matt Barzal, scoring leader on the New York Islanders, or Trevor Zegras, scoring leader on the Philadelphia Flyers, and putting him in the 2nd round. If you can make that make sense to me, I’m all ears, because I’d be happy to take the chance if that’s the upside. Nothing is worse than a confident athlete that can’t back up their attitude, but Preston can do it, and I’ve seen more than enough evidence to convince me. He’s an outstanding player who is still very young, and I would be thrilled to add him and help him grow/mature as he ages and hopefully becoming the star winger he could be. The guy I always have seen there at his best is William Nylander, and I still fully stand by that comparison, it’ll just be a matter of how he carries himself and the path he chooses to walk in order to get there. There’s too much talent to ignore, the results on the whole are too good to pass up on, and I still fully believe that Preston is as good as any in this class if you’re looking for superstar scoring upside.
What a ride Villeneuve has been on. I cannot believe people forget how good he looked at the 2025 World Under-18 World Championship as one of the youngest guys on the team, and how outstanding he was in the NTDP series this year. His playoff was less than inspiring, and him admitting he was battling injury all year is simultaneously worrying and reassuring. He looked like a completely different player after his time missed due to injury, looking very, very pedestrian in the playoffs for the Armada, with whispers that even his own team was ready to be done with him, refuting his claims of fighting off a nagging injury. I would be doing a lot of homework on him, investigating as much as I can and getting as much information as I can, because Villeneuve’s upside is simply as elite as an offensive defenseman gets. The skating, skill, explosiveness, and creativity are off the charts in combination with one an other, with some of the most exciting individual moments of any player I’ve seen this year. He’s absolutely ruthless in the offensive zone, and I think he’s an underrated defensive player as well, with a good offensive blueline defensive ability and neutral zone positioning. His physical game is questionable, but the same is also true of Chase Reid, Daxon Rudolph, Keaton Verhoff and others who people completely gloss over in my opinion.
Lane Hutson is the comparison that he and others quickly provide, but I think he’s beyond where Lane Hutson was at the same age. The top offensive NHL defensemen these days play like Villeneuve. Skilled, creative, daring, explosive, and positionally sound. Like Preston, if Villeneuve is available in the 2nd round but is compared to someone like Shayne Goestisbehere, I’d be happy to take that. That having been said, you’d have to find out if there is indeed a hip issue that could nag him over longer periods, because a mobile, offensive defenseman with a hip problem is a no-go, so due dilligence is necessary. The upside is immense, and even if his season ended limply, a few years at Boston University could easily lead to a career that follows in the footsteps of the Hutson brothers.

Tier 3 - The Fancy-Pantses

Similar to Lawrence, I’m amazed at how people are cutting Verhoeff to pieces over his play in the NCAA this year. I came into the year a bit lower on Verhoeff than others, but I think people have wildly overcorrected. He could’ve gone back to Victoria and scored 30 goals and maybe touched 80+ points and nobody would be batting an eye at him being in the top 5-10. He goes to North Dakota, isn’t really deploying the high-end shot he definitely has, and is forced to defend like he’s never had to before. It wasn’t perfect, but he’s got one of the best defensive sticks and skating range of the 08s this year. His slip passing through traffic and offensive zone playmaking took huge jumps from his time in Victoria and I believe that was on full display at the World Juniors in limited usage. I think he’s got tremendous upside as a 200-foot finesse defender with some offensive ability at 5v5 that could be a good asset for any NHL team. I think trying to make him a more purely physical player might be a mistake, but he does have a ways to go to be the puck possession-heavy high usage defender he could project to be. Skilled at lower paces of play and smart and efficient off the puck, there’s a great framework to start with, and I’m pumped to see where he goes from here. I think we're all highly underrating the value of a guy like Verhoeff being a sophomore at North Dakota when most of the time, he’d be a freshman, or before last year he would just be going back to the WHL to dominate, or being put in the NHL likely to struggle for a time. It’s a new era, and names like Verhoeff and Lawrence could be bellwethers for a new paradigm of NHL prospect analysis.
A player that grew on me very, very quickly this season, especially once he got a call-up to an SHL team that desperately needed help to stay in the league, Malte Gustafsson was one of the most underrated defensemen in the entire draft class from an actual defending perspective. His positioning and mobility are excellent, but his ability to read where play is going, keep his feet active, stick check, guide carriers into the boards, erase chip-and-chase plays, it’s all there, and he does it against men already. On top of that, you see much more range and offensive punch when he’s at the junior level, especially at the Under-18s where his breakout ability and skill were evident often. Gustafsson is a guy that I think is right up there with defenders others have rated as high as the top slot in the class. He’s got a good positional game, a good stick checking ability, and a smart, effective physical game that catches your attention constantly. I think there’s offensive upside to come as well, with a strong slap shot from the point and bits of skill that started to come out in the offensive zone here and there in the SHL. He’s very young, still quite lanky, and his development curve could be very, very strong in the positive direction. As with many others this year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him even higher than this on redraft boards in relatively short order.
It’s a testament to how close this class is that I’ve got Reid down at 10, but I do like a lot of what he brings to the game. A very fluid and mobile forwards skater with deception ability and skill that should help him project well, along with a strong shot release that I may like to see used a little less often. The pass vision and breakout control is strong with Reid, and if the game were played entirely with the puck, Reid would absolutely be much higher on my list than 10. My questions come up away from the puck through the neutral zone and on defensive zone cycles. He’s just not very involved unless play is coming directly at him, and he can be a little bit too easily to work through by players that can get low to the ice, keep the puck away from Reid, and try to wrestle through him. He’s a tough one for me, but he’s undeniably one of the most interesting offensive bets this year. The guy he has always reminded me of somewhat is Morgan Rielly, who had quite a good run as an offensive defenseman in the NHL, even if his defensive results weren’t spectacular. Getting that at 10th is a testament to the potential upside in this class, but also might lead me to believe I might be undervaluing him a bit. There are a lot of interesting defensemen this year, but many of them have completely different styles of play, which makes it all the more interesting to see not only how teams actually select them, but what their trajectory from here becomes. Reid is a premier example of that conundrum and I can’t wait to see where things go for him and the others defenders in this range.
Talk about a turnaround, Adam Novotny started the year terrifyingly questionable compared to where he was in the Czech league two years ago. The World Juniors seemed to ignite him, and my best viewings of him by far came in the last few games of the season. He became a much more relentless forechecker with dual-threat offense that leaned a bit more in the shooting direction, and the physical energy was undeniably evident. Novotny could be more of a reliable puck distributor on more occasions but that’s also not likely his wheelhouse at the NHL level. He’s a north-south winger with speed, skill and tenacity that was finding himself in scoring position often, getting plenty of chances, and driving efficient results in many key areas. I would love to see him cut down on the shots from the boards and blueline and defer to others more often, but in general, Novotny remains an interesting bet on fundamentals and underrated energy. If you wanted to argue some of the names behind him as better bets, I could see why that would be the case, but his game is pretty projectable on some level and for the right team he could be a good asset with some upside to explore.
Right where I left him a couple months ago, Wyatt Cullen is fresh off a great Under-18 Tournament where all of a sudden his the greatest thing since sliced bread in the eyes of some. I’ve been watching Cullen for two years and the growth in his game is immense, especially factoring in his age. As one of the youngest players in the class, Cullen’s developmental path could be extremely beneficial and could easily catch up with the wingers up in my top range. An absolutely elite set of hands with a great shot/playmaking combination, with the puck on his stick, very few area as dazzling as Cullen is at his best. He can be a “live and die by the sword” type as he is at this age, and we saw that on display at the Under-18 World Championships last month, but the skill and upside is still obvious and very, very impressive. His defensive game and defensive rush involvement is a far cry from the moments with the puck, but he could easily still learn plenty from here and grow as a player. He’s a huge unknown, but the upside is awesome, and we may be looking back wondering how he fell at all past 5 or so. If he gets picked in that range, I would not be surprised in the slightest, but there are still areas to work on in order to make the gamble on his offense worth it.
If having fun were the only goal in the sport of hockey, Hermansson would probably be a top 5 pick this year. He has a skating and skill combination that immediately jumps out at you, and has an oddly similar profile to Cullen, but relies a bit more on his feet and quickness to get by rather than pure skill and creativity. Hermansson was an efficient men’s league player for MoDo, and although the physicality of the HockeyAllsvenskan playoffs somewhat limited his ice time and impact, he still remained an impressive player for his age at that level. He’s got a little bit of everything in his profile, especially in transition, with high involvement, efficient results, and very good passing results. The shot selection is a problem and he can frustratingly skate himself into issues and nonsense, but he isn’t the only one in this class to do so. I could see him go around here, or I could see him pushing the 2nd round depending on what teams are looking for and how much they weigh the downsides with Hermansson. As a complimentary transition facilitating offensive winger, Hermansson has upside, but if you’re looking for a high-motor, competitive physical winger that grinds to scoring areas, you might want to look elsewhere.
Belchetz remains very strange, and I don’t know what to make of him or the world that’s been constructed around him. Going back to his AAA days, he was a giant that could score but everyone wanted him to be meaner and more physical. This year, he’s a giant that can score but everyone wants him to be meaner and more physical. On some level, it may just not be the way he’s wired, and going so far as to admit he has a special coach dedicated to that area of his game makes me think people are telling him to go down a road that he may just not be wired to go down. I’d be happy to be wrong, but I always focus on what a player can do or could do, and with Belchetz, I think people have started to overcorrect somewhat on just how impressive an offensive player he could be. I don’t think he’s the 200-foot do-it-all winger, but as a complimentary power winger with soft hands in transition, moving the puck through defensive layers easily, with a little bit of shooting skill, playmaking skill, and physical energy, Belchetz is an intriguing player. I’d be very curious to privately interview him and pick his brain a little bit on what he wants to do in his game genuinely, rather than what people may have been telling him he should be, because I get the feeling the two may differ. He’s a good pickup to have in the stable, and his style of play is certainly fun to watch at its best, but God only knows what an NHL system try with him. I don’t know what the end product is likely to be, but he remains one that I simultaneously enjoy watching at his best, but scratch my head about at times as well.
He’s going to be gone by here, so my analysis almost doesn’t matter, but I continue to try and try and try and try to see what others are seeing in Malhotra. What I see, is a talented rush quarterback that can plant his feet and protect a puck well, making plays under pressure that I’m sure NHL scouts notice every time. That’s fine, but I track data for a reason, and zooming out, Malhotra’s impact in my experience as an individual player is still very pedestrian. Mediocre pass volumes and results, good shot selection trends but low volumes, an efficient but not elite offensive transition driver, and most troubling of all, his impact defensively on the rush an in his own zone remains well behind his peers in this class. For a guy on a team as dominant as Brantford, almost 60% of dangerous shot attempts with him on the ice in my sample were against him, and just 12% of his pass attempts were directed into scoring areas, completing just 26% of those attempts. I don’t always trust my data, but I think that roughly encapsulates the strengths and issues I believe are there in his game. Adam Benak and Cooper Dennis were insanely good this year and often found playing on Malhotra’s wings, and I think that’s a great trio to work with, but from my perspective, if you take those two wingers away, they’d be just fine at the OHL level, and I’m not sure the same could be said for Malhotra.
He has the advantage of youth just like many others in the class, and yes, going from where he was on paper in Chilliwack to where he is now is very impressive, I just wonder if there are dimensions we’re missing to his analysis and history. An interesting player that is projectable, and I’m sure I could be more easily swayed if development coaches who are smarter than me really reassured me and he interviewed impeccably well, but I can only go off of my own experience and what I see. I don’t see a top pick here, but a projectable, effective offensive centre for the middle of your lineup one day? I could see that much more easily.
One of the biggest risers relative to April, I saw a lot more of Carels to really be sure I wanted him where I had him, and comparing him to others at this range, I really don’t believe he obviously belongs in the 4th tier here. I think the defensive game has really developed over the year, with tactical defensive positioning that showed maturity and timing that I wasn’t seeing early in the year going back to last season. He has some explosive skating ability on loose pucks and attacking the offensive zone which helps him generate offense, but I do wonder how much you can project his offensive brand to the NHL. The physical game is very good though, picking his times to be engaged well, but I wonder about how active a defender he is through the neutral zone being very projectable. His feet are often very stationary, playing with fire quite a lot defending the rush, relinquishing space and waiting for a moment to strike. When it works, it’s awesome, when it doesn’t he’s beaten far too easily. Like Malhotra, he’s almost certainly gone way before this point, but I see him as another flavour of defenseman in an interesting draft class of defenders with his own playing style that might stick out more to some than others. He’s risen quite a bit because of the physical floor that’s become more apparent, but I’m still skeptical of just how far he’ll go in his NHL career if he is a guy gone at or before the 5th pick this year.
I’m just throwing caution to the wind here on Svensk. To be clear, I wouldn’t actually draft him this high, I think there are too many unanswered questions about him that are impossible to be confident about at this point, but he is as good a skater as any defenseman in this draft with a skill level to match. I couldn’t believe SaiPa didn’t give him an extended look in Liiga as a defenseman, or at least loan him out to Mestis to play men’s hockey and really push himself. At the U20 level in Finland, yeah he had a lot of secondary assists, but he still had points on almost 40% of SaiPa’s offense, and did so with remarkable fundamentals. In Liiga, he played quite a bit on the wing and the last game I saw of him there, he actually looked pretty good at it. He’s got physical development room being a lanky 6’1”, and I’d be curious about how he comes off in interviews, but if you want to talk strange development curves, this guy went from a 2nd division U20 player in Finland to a SaiPa flyer, to Liiga defenseman/winger in two seasons. It’s been a strange ride, but he is undeniably thrilling and the numbers back it up. His physical game, shutdown metrics, forechecking metrics, and offensive generation (even when scaling game by game data for when he was playing on the wing) is very impressive. 46% of his tracked shot attempts were scoring chances, he shut down >70% of defensive transitions he was involved in, and if he can just calm his breakout game a bit more, and use his skill to find passing lanes and simplify his neutral zone offense, the upside could be immense. He tries to do a lot himself, and that can be a big issue for him, but boy is he ever talented. I would be very, very curious what SaiPa’s plans are for him, because he can’t be dragged around dominating the U20 level while either playing on the wing or for 5 minutes a night in Liiga. He’s tons of fun and should’ve had visibility this year, and as a guy likely drafted well outside the first round, I’m willing to bet many, many players that are objectively not where Svensk is will be picked before him.

Tier 4 - Bloop Singles or Home Runs?

Time and time again, my thoughts on Sörensson are put to the test, and time and time again he gives me reason to keep pushing him up and up the board. I thought he was simply fantastic at the U18 World Championships, helping his team win a gold medal with a combination of speed, determination and skill that rivals the best in the class. I went back in my archive and watched him next to all the guys behind him in this tier and a few that are ahead of him, and I honestly wanted to put him a tier higher. There are some personal concerns with his situation that muddy the waters a bit and hold me back from really pushing some chips on the table for him, but I don’t believe it’s anything that really gets in the way of his long term development, especially when you consider he might be a late round swing and just how damn good he is at this sport. Sörensson is electrifyingly quick on his feet with skill to go along with it, attacking defenders, crossing them up, getting the puck off the boards and creating plays time and time again. Watching Wyatt Cullen in one game and Sörensson in another, there are moments where they at worst look comparable from a fundamental standpoint. Yes, Sörensson is not likely to play high level men’s hockey for at least another season, but he played a huge part in getting his hometown team into HockeyEttan, and will likely be a huge part of ensuring they are competitive there next year. It’s unusual, but I’m unusual, so here we are. He’s constantly impressed me at every level he’s played at, and I think if you find a way to snag him this year, he has as much potential as anyone likely to go in this range of the first round.
Ho-hum another guy right where I left him, but it’s mostly because Suvanto barely played or added any other thoughts in my book in the time since my last list. He’s huge, built like a fridge, plays a valuable position up the middle, has underrated skill and puck management ability, and has a simple, effective game that is not hard to see working in the NHL one day. If his game plan is: defense passes him the puck, he makes a read, moves the puck a bit, hits a winger in the neutral zone, then is the trailing forward that attacks the net, he could be quite valuable. Suvanto is also extremely young, giving him a very intriguing runway, which combined with his physical tools is very interesting to say the least. It’s simple, but he’s impressive where he’s comfortable. It was entertaining seeing him physically dominate weaker opposition at the U18s last month, and projecting him as a solid piece down the lineup with intriguing upside is an interesting bet in this range.
Hemming slots in right where I left him, and I think he could be one that makes me look a bit silly for having him this low. He’s one of a kind, really. A September 2008 kid who skipped a lot of levels to jump straight to the NCAA as a physical winger with a shot you rarely saw utilized. I felt the NCAA was beyond his capabilities at this moment, but his youth and inexperience made it difficult get a good read on him this season. I think the physicality is always something to fall back on for him and as a complimentary two-way player, he’s going to be a curiousity. I could see a team jumping at him and his potential early, but teams might have seen a bit of a limited profile in Hemming and seeing him slip a bit past this point. He’s got some great tools as a forechecker and shooter, and there’s value in that. The allure of where he could be in 12-24 months is enticing, I just believe there are a few players I’ve seen more apparent ability in to this point, and Hemming ends up an unclear projection, but one with a solid physical floor and developmental upside.
Mutryn drops a bit after a somewhat underwhelming U18 tournament last month and some reflection with the video on him that I’ve pulled over the season. He’s still an undervalued asset in my books, with all the NHL upside in a power winger that you could want. He’s big, strong, attacks players head-on with good puck protection, is a fierce physical player and puts in good work in tough areas along the boards. I feel like he’s a player who is only scratching the surface of his game, as he can disappear for stretches, lose control of the puck at key areas, and shy away from attacking scoring areas a bit too often, but the fundamental package there is undeniable. He should be able to carve out a role down an NHL lineup as a nightmare for opponents to handle on the forecheck with punishing physical play, and speed to maximize his impact in that regard. It seems he’s going to be playing with his brother in Moncton for a year, and honestly I would be very curious as to how that goes. I imagine he will be a physically dominant player at that level who can brute-force his way into some good production. I’d love to have a Casey Mutryn in my system, and in this draft class there’s a level of comfort and certainty in his profile.
Still right around where he was a few months ago, Håkansson has fallen down some boards out there but I still feel like there’s a very strong fundamental baseline to work with here. A good defensive baseline with strong skating range, Håkansson also flashes some good puck carrying ability and a good slap shot that you see here and there. His loan to Almtuna put him in an uncomfortable position on the ice for him, so I would hope that he sticks on the left side of the ice from here. As he is now, he’s a bit meat-and-potatoes, but he’s pretty solid at it and has done so at the men’s professional level almost all season. Good physical tools, great size, great range, we’re also not that far removed from Håkansson’s strong performance at the World Junior Championship, so if you need a rock-solid defensive player with intriguing tools and upside, Håkansson could be a good option in this range.
I adore Victor Plante. Every time I see him, he’s consistently one of the most entertaining, admirable players in the whole draft class. He is a relentless worker on both sides of the puck, driving great two-way metrics with punishing physical play, quick feet and skill to go along with it. His on-ice approach is basic but effective, with great energy and very strong results at the end of the day. The trouble is that he’s undersized, and while I believe he’s determined and strong enough to carve out a role, I can understand that the bar for a player like him is extremely high in the NHL. Like Svensk or Sörensson, I don’t think I draft him this high, but in the 2nd round and beyond, I’d be willing to bet worse players will be picked before Victor that teams wished played more like Victor, but are just bigger. For me, I think there’s a competitive streak in Victor Plante that is very difficult to just pick up along the way, and I get the feeling he’s going to bust his behind to earn his way to an NHL job.
Morozov is another strange one, but I keep coming back and setting aside my base instincts from previous draft classes where I’ve overlooked players like Morozov. He’s another 17 year old that played in the NCAA this year and deserves the same analytical lens that I’ve given the names already covered. Morozov was arguably thrown into the toughest environment of them all on a less-than-stellar RedHawks team. Maybe the expectations were a bit more restricted relative to places like Boston University or North Dakota, but the role was important for Morozov. A big, physical centre with range, his skating ability looked more and more fluid and refined over the course of the season, and by the end of the year, he was able to be more of an impactful off-puck player who drove good defense-first results. There wasn’t much evidence of big offensive upside with Morozov, and his game was largely kept quite safe and careful in my experience, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t bring value. I think the ceiling may be a bit limited right now, but he’s still a 17 year old NCAA freshman centre, so it may have been an adjustment year and we see more of that offense next year. If that happens, he might look like a great get in this class if he’s available around here, but something tells me an NHL team will pounce on this guy a bit earlier than this.
Bleyl hasn’t moved for me, but a fantastic playoff has only solidified that at the very least, he’s an exciting offensive defenseman specializing on the rush and working along the offensive blueline. He opens lanes and exploits them easily with shots and passes, and I would love to see the playmaking explored a bit more over time, as he deferred to soft point shots quite a bit relative to other offensive defensemen. His defensive positioning and anticipation skill improved over the year as well, especially on the rush, but I do wonder about a defender that loses a lot of physical battles, defers control across bluelines often, and doesn’t really indicate the extreme fundamental tools that a modern offensive NHL defenseman has as he is. He’s foregoing a year at Michigan State next year to go back to Moncton, and as a player born in 2007, I’m not sure if this is the move I’d make, especially with so many 17 year old 08’s this year who will be Juniors or even NHLers by the time Bleyl laces up for the Spartans. I don’t think about that conundrum too much, and I still love what Bleyl brings to the game. At this range of the draft, players who bring an excitement factor of some kind with upside and some questions are some of the best names available in my opinion, and Bleyl is a perfect example of that. I’ve been told some teams love him, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he were taken way ahead of this slot, and if you really believe in his offensive game, I can absolutely see why that might happen.
I just love Adam Andersson so much as an NHL prospect. Big, strong, fast, skilled, he has so much going for him and I felt he was only beginning to dig into his real capabilities as the year came to a close. My last couple games tracked and viewed, he was more confident on his puck touches, attacking the middle of the ice with more pace and strength, and seemingly figuring out how to use the frame he has. His defensive metrics are strong, he’s an efficient neutral zone player going both ways, and in some games, his offensive generation was very impressive. He makes his scoring chances count, and I think there is a ton of room for improvement in the coming years. We saw Tinus Luc Koblar make a huge leap in Leksand’s system last year, and I bet in HockeyAllsvenskan, Andersson and Koblar could make quite an interesting pair of teenagers at that level up the middle.
Valentini works his way into the tail end of my first round after seeing some more NCAA tape in the playoffs of him. One of the peskiest players out there who found a mean streak I didn’t see last year in Chicago, Valentini took a bit of time to find his stride in college, and while he didn’t blow you away on the ice, he found a role that made sense for him. A very active physical player with great forechecking results, Valentini was also a relatively highly involved transition winger with acceptable results, but the 5v5 offense left a lot to be desired. Very much preferring to be a volume shooter from the perimeter, Valentini is too quick and skilled to be defaulting to that style of play, and his shot while good is not so high-end that it can beat NHL goalies from anywhere. Not many can, and Valentini does have some things to work on. That said, for another 17 year old in college hockey, Valentini made a name for himself in ways I didn’t expect, and I think he’s a player NHL teams will be very curious about, especially if he falls out of the high ranges of the draft. With the issues projecting his offensive game and his size deficiency, I could see him falling down draft boards, but like a Casey Mutryn, you could always use a pesky, intense winger like this to play an important role on any line.
I was waiting all year for Hextall to take a step in his game and really take control of the USHL level this year but it just never seemed to happen. Don’t get me wrong, he was a very successful player, but I was hoping for more confidence, more oomph, and more zoom in his offensive game. Those aren’t the most high-brow descriptors, but it gets the point across. An exceptionally smart play driver, Hextall had excellent defensive metrics as a positionally supportive centre with skill and scoring instincts that should take him a ways. He did drive a good chunk of Youngstown’s offense while on the ice, but he always played like there was more there that just wasn’t coming out enough. I’ll be fascinating to see what happens next year with Michigan State as their forward group is quite log-jammed, but he has such an excellent baseline to start with. Centres that think like he does with the results he generates are relatively rare, and he’s exactly the kind of centre that makes everyone’s life easier, but the NCAA and NHL are going to require more out of him. There were times this year I was a bit more drawn to the offensive tools of linemate Evan Jardine, so perhaps there are some lessons for Hextall to take home over the summer from that experience. I still have plenty of faith and greatly enjoy watching him play, and he’s a thinking man’s favourite player this year, but the fundamentals and confidence will need to take a step.
Lin is another strange one this season. I remember a small handful of games where he looked like the skilled, agile defenseman he was advertised to be, and in others looking like the very limited, compact and hard to project offensive defender that I was seeing more often. He had a strong performance at the U18s, showcasing dynamic footwork, skating circles around weaker opponents and showing more offensive zone confidence than I remember in Vancouver, but the results in my experience speak for themselves. Lin was getting shelled in almost every game, with solid but underwhelming defensive rush results, but you can’t fault the smarts and skill level that he has. He’s deceptive with his skill, manages the puck well, has a nice ability to find shooting lanes from the blueline, and has strong fundamentals that could take some good jumps. As an added benefit, he’s headed to Denver University, so if any coach is going to get the best out of a player like Lin, it’s probably David Carle. There may very well be NHL teams that love his upside and pick him much higher than this, and it could work! I remain slightly more tepid, but I’d be thrilled to see more Ryan Lins in the NHL.
Piiparinen’s hype train has seemingly slowed down in my mind a bit the more I’ve seen of him. I think he’s a very straightforward player with good positional defensive habits, with good length, a strong stick, a solid physical game, and takes care of the puck breaking it out of the defensive zone. There’s a level of offensive confidence that came out at the junior level at the end of the year, but I’m not sure that’s an area I would be leaning into over the next few years. Simplicity and efficiency should be the name of the game for Piiparinen, and it’s where he really thrives. His feet and range are strong, with good coverage of the ice with all the tools necessary to project as a solid defensive player. He may not be a day 1 pick, but as the 2nd or 3rd player a team lands, he could be a great option that has a bit more of a limited role. He’d be strong in that role, but limited nonetheless. He showed strongly internationally this year, and the youth, maturity and fundamentals in his game are strong.
Another big, range-focused defensive leaning player, Goljer has been all over the place in my experience this season. At times, a strong, intelligent defender, at others a capable puck controller with a shot that can drive some offense, and at others, a player who can look overwhelmed and lost in the defensive zone, turning the puck over and relinquishing chances. He had plenty of defensive zone time on a team that barely escaped relegation, but you’re betting on what he is when he’s 25. He’s big and has impressive range, with dual-threat defensive skill, but consistency is an issue, and when he has issues, it’s apparent. That said, as a right hand shot that projects as a potentially diverse roleplayer on your bottom two pairs somewhere who may develop into a capable penalty killer one day. A long term bet, but an interesting one in this range.
In what may come to many as a shock, Jonas Lagerberg Hoen of all players ends up finishing up my first round. Watching my tape back on him, I couldn’t believe how good he looked with a combination of size, speed, and efficiency, Lagerberg Hoen took big strides this year after a bizarre season scoring 27 goals and 3 assists in his prior year. He was a dominant player before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury, and if the medical checks come back clear, I could see him being well worth the bet here. He was an absolute offensive machine on the puck through shooting and passing, and a constant individual threat with the puck at the U20 level. If he had stayed there all season, he may have come close to setting scoring records for a player his age, and I would’ve loved to see him play at the SHL level had he not been hurt. He’s a tall, lanky and confident player with the ability to embarrass the opponent and while there isn’t much of a physical game to speak of, but that’s not really his job. He’s an offensive winger with size, range and skill, and I was very surprised with how impressed I was when watching his tape back at the end of the year.
Cali grew on me more and more as the season wore on, especially considering how young he is for the draft class, and how physically developed he is. On top of this, he’s a smart player who puts in hard work on both sides of the puck, with intelligent, smart passing vision utilizing linemates effectively. His performance at the U18s was a bit of a coming out party, showing his trademark energy, physicality and pressure application, even if the raw finishing ability wasn’t quite there as it’s been here and there with North Bay, but he has an impressive baseline to work with. I’d want to see him get a little lighter on his feet, a little quicker to the puck, and improving his puck control a bit to be a more reliable transporter. His youth, size, and work rate are impressive areas to build on, and he could easily be a guy that develops pretty significantly in the coming years.
I’ve come back around on Chrenko in recent weeks and months. The game 7 Overtime hero to win his men’s team a championship consistently shows a speed, skill and smarts combination up the middle of the ice that continuously is capturing your attention. Very light on his feet, and lacking some important physical tools that hold him back from a high end valuation, Chrenko does have some other tools that are high end, with plenty of potential for more if he grows a bit and fills out. He’s undersized and definitely plays a little small, but the skill is there, the agility is impressive, and his overall data package at the men’s level is rock solid. He may not be a centre at the higher levels, he may not be good enough along the boards or physical enough to be an NHL winger, but the talent is there, and he may, with some luck, work his way into an NHL lineup one day.
Definitely one of the more fun players out there this year, Klepov puts in the work, he’s got quick hands, plays at a high pace of play on the puck, and has a lightning quick wrist shot that he certainly used from all over the offensive zone often. I think he’s a player who requires a bit of a sheltered role if he makes the NHL one day, but in the right slot, he could be an interesting and valuable addition. His 5v5 metrics were notable below average in my work, with low volumes almost across the board, but when the puck hit his stick, he had some impressive moments creating space for himself, creating passing lanes and getting good looks on net. I don’t know what’s to come for him, and he may top out as a great AHL scorer, but he’s worth a bet somewhere in this range, even if he may not be the first or second guy I’d want to add this year.
An absolutely punishing physical winger with speed and tenacity, Pugachyov is a relatively straightforward projection, but an entertaining one at that. Some guys are very good at moving the puck slowly and efficiently, some are pure shooters, some are offensive leaning playmakers, some are patient off-puck defenders, but some, like Gleb, are hunters. He’s a missile on the ice at times, with great footspeed and crossovers to get moving into lanes and on the forecheck. His finesse and puck control are areas to improve, but you see flashes of what’s there. His offensive numbers weren’t zeroes this year, but his hallmark is off-puck hockey and plowing through opponents to get to the puck. He’s a more than capable transition threat offensively, with good skill settling the puck and getting up the ice, it’s just that I would love to see a bit more activity and confidence in the offensive zone on the puck. Attacking the net more, driving more passes into scoring areas, all the stuff that leads to offense is a bit of a mixed bag with Pugachyov. A team could draft him way higher than this and I would very much enjoy it. Fans will too, and he deserves the last slot in this tier. It’s a close range, but I bet he’ll make whoever picks him feel pretty good about their decision in relatively short order once he comes over.

Tier 5 - Neat Guys Who Do Stuff

Tier 6 - The Real Big Swings

The Watchlist

My hands hurt and this is where the list becomes much more vibes based, so I apologize for the lack of detailed insights on these guys. The Watchlist is a collection of players I’ve enjoyed that I may not consider actually drafting, but show enough where they may be interesting re-entry candidates or late round swings.

Goalies

I’m no expert, but I think it’s a pretty strong year for goaltending around the world and these are the names I’ve liked in roughly an order in which I’d prefer them:

Ryder Fetterolf
Roberto Henriquez
Vladimir Proskurin
Yegor Rybkin
Tobias Trejbal
Marek Sklenicka
William Lacelle
Dmitri Borichev
Xavier Wendt
Vladislav Yermolenko
Harrison Boettiger
Brady Knowling
Gleb Peshkov
Dmitri Ivchenko
Pyry Lammi
Matvei Karbainov
Juuso Ainasto