2024 IIHF Under-18 World Championship Preview

It’s that time of year again! The 2024 IIHF World Under-18 Championship is a must-watch event for any NHL Draft nerd such as myself. Scrappy, skilled teams giving everything they have to put a cap on their junior seasons before the big weekend in June, doing what they can to make an impact on the limitless NHL scouts and managers that will be in attendance. For a team like the USA who have played all season together, this is their pinnacle and this season is no different. This iteration looks to be a huge toss up, especially in the middle of the field as many teams are bringing rosters that are strong in key areas but may lack some depth. Switzerland, Finland, Czechia, and even Norway are bringing impressive talents to the table and could make a serious impact at just the right time.

This tournament is a great tool for evaluators such as myself to see their understandings of these players put to the test against their own cohort. To a point, the U18s are a great way to see if the strengths and weaknesses you may see are as much of a factor as you believe them to be when put in a best on best junior hockey situation. Pro players in Europe are back playing junior competition, standout junior players in smaller countries are put up against the best young talent in the world, and players from teams that may overinflate or deflate their perceived value are given a chance for a fresh start and a new perspective. Going and changing your rankings a tremendous amount at this point, or overthinking great and poor performances on the scoresheet in this tournament is a dangerous game, however, and it is always important to remember that any player born in 2005 or from Russia/Belarus are not eligible to be here and don’t receive the same chances that those in this tournament get. There’s plenty of room for biases to kick in, but sticking to the lens of curiousity and open-mindedness has been the right path forward more ofthen than not.

As usual, you can check the embedded sheet in this piece to track the standings, the rosters and all your favorite players in one spot so be sure to keep this open as you watch the games and pick your favourites! As a note, NHLeS is a position, league and age adjust measure of a prospect’s overall value as they are. Generally 20-25 is a baseline for first line production but it is only a guideline and certainly not a rule.

Kazakhstan - NHLeS Average Unavailable - Ranked 10th

Player to Watch: Svyatoslav Yevplov - D - SKA St. Petersburg U16

Last season, Kazakhstan was promoted largely on the back of Ottawa Senators draft pick Vladimir Nikitin who backstopped the team to the championship with a 1.50 GAA and a .936 SPCT. He is not eligible this year. Neither is his backup. In fact there is only one returnee from last season’s team in Roman Bolshedvorsky and he was not a particularly effective defender at the MHL level this season. Many of these players are coming from the junior league in Kazakhstan which is essentially impossible to project into this tournament, so I have no idea how to evaluate their NHLeS metric. I honestly have no clue what to expect from this team, but what does intrigue me is that 8 of these players could be back next year, with one eligible for 2026s installment. All but one of these are playing lower level junior hockey in Russia. Could these be the names that surprise us and put on the list for the next three NHL Drafts? Potentially, because the 2007s don’t bring a tremendous amount of promise. They’re underdogs to say the least, and my hunch is that they’re bringing a very young team to prepare them for a likely Division 1A placement next season that can work their way back in down the road. Going from the Russian U16 level to the Canadian U18 team for 15 year old Svyatoslav Yevplov and his fellow kids would be quite the eye-opening experience to learn from. I’m always interested in the extreme youth that mid-level nations sometimes bring to these tournaments, especially if they’re playing in better nations, but I’m not expecting a ton from this inexperienced Kazakh roster lacking the key player that brought them here last season.

---

Latvia - NHLeS Average Unavailable - Ranked 9th

Player to Watch: Darels Uljanskis - D - AIK U20

Speaking of youth, Latvia is bringing the youngest team to the tournament on average with three 2026 NHL Draft-eligible players on the roster in Olivers Murnieks, Martins Klaucans and Karlis Flugins coming to Finland. From what I’ve seen of the players on this roster, I don’t think Latvia will be a team to be trifled with. Darels Uljanskis is always a shooting threat on the power play, what I’ve seen of Karlis Flugins has been excellent in Sweden and he may be one to make an impact in this tournament as well. The name I am truly interested in is Maksims Haritoncevs, however. With 25 goals in 22 games with Swedish juniors-only program IFK Täby being fed pucks by current 2026 NHL Draft darling Viggo Björck, he earned himself a transfer to Mora IK where he has performed well, working his way to U20 competition for a game. He’s a shooting threat with some good skill and could be a major part of the team’s potential success. This is likely going to be a team that will need some stellar goaltending however, and I’m not totally sure who is going to be getting the nod in net. None of them have been tested internationally for this team all that much, and while I’ve liked what I’ve seen of Mikus Vecvanags this season, the Latvians will be in tough to match up in their group and are likely to be battling Norway for a quarterfinal spot. There is plenty of room to set the stage for the future of Latvian hockey, however with some interesting younger names like Murnieks and Flugins who could catch some lightning in a bottle if things break their way.

---

Slovakia - 5.12 Average NHLeS - Ranked 8th

Player to Watch - Tomas Pobezal - C - HK Nitra

After a few very strong teams at this tournament, I’m not sure this Slovak roster quite holds up to those previous iterations. There are some serious bright spots, let most notably by Tomas Pobezal, and 2026 eligible Adam Nemec, brother of Simon has been impressive in the limited pro hockey I’ve seen him play. There are some players that I’ve caught and enjoyed here and there in Adam Belusko and Pavol Prokopovic but there isn’t much in the way of elite talent that makes this team competitive. Miroslav Satan’s gigantic son Miroslav is going to be here and I’ve always had time for the lanky, fluid skating big boy, but my expectations for the team are somewhat limited. That said, this is a group where a large chunk of them have played together at some point this year and last for extended periods with the national team program, which can give you a bit of an advantage in short tournaments, but this is going to be a tough battle for this group of players. They have a bit of an easier trip by avoiding Sweden, Canada, the Czechs and the Swiss, but my expectations are pretty reserved.

---

Norway - 8.53 Average NHLeS - Ranked 7th

Player to Watch - Mikkel Eriksen - C - Vålerenga U20

If there’s a country outside the top echelon of nations that I am bullish on, it’s Norway. They managed to stay in the top division last year over Germany, bolstered by 2005-born Stian Solberg and returnee Elias Straume Vatne and looked like they deserved it. Four players return from last year’s roster, and at least three of them should be key cogs in the machine this year. The really interesting thing about Norway is their serious talent at the younger end of things. Five players are eligible to return next year, Niklas Aaram Olsen eligible for the year after that. From what I’m told, Aaram Olsen is a serious talent to keep an eye on. For me, Mikkel Eriksen has impressed whenever I’ve seen him and was a bit disappointed to see him leave Sweden to play with hometown team Vålerenga midseason. He was simply dominant at the Norwegian junior level and in the limited time I saw at the pro level, he didn’t look out of place. Nephew of Norwegian legend Espen Knutsen, I’m very curious to see what the youth of Norway can do. On top of that, Elias Vatne could be a player who reminds scouts in person that they shouldn’t completely forget about him. He’s rambunctious, highly skilled and zips around the ice extremely well and may be the most entertaining player at his best to not be ranked on my draft bord for 2024. He should have a serious role for this team as he did last season. In a group with Slovakia, Latvia and Finland, the Norwegians could surprise people and set the stage for a strong few years for junior hockey in Norway, hopefully reviving a hockey federation that has been struggling politically and financially over there. There’s a bright future here, and while Marcus Walberg is going to be very very busy, he did just turn away 27 of 29 shots in two periods of work in a 4-3 overtime loss to, excuse me while I check my notes, Canada.

---

Switzerland - 7.57 NHLeS Average - Ranked 6th

Player to Watch - Jamiro Reber - C - HV71 J20

The Swiss team this year is not to be looked over with some strong areas that should keep them in contention to perhaps challenge for a quarterfinal upset. Is it likely? Probably not, but with names like Leon Muggli, Daniil Ustinkov, Jamiro Reber and a strong trio of goaltenders who could steal a game here and there. The middle of the roster is also quite impressive as I’ve enjoyed what I’ve seen of Robin Nico Antenen’s well-rounded skill-forward game with plenty of pace in the tank. Basile Sansonnens’ production may not jump out at you but he’s been a solid defensive presence both in Switzerland and internationally. Reber is going to need to be the quarterback of the whole show however. In my viewings of him he’s been an excellent transition presence, getting pucks up the ice with great efficiency and being a pesky defensive presence off the puck, but actually generating offense under pressure and creating space for himself with the puck have been a challenge for him in Sweden and his success is likely Switzerland’s success here. Luckily they have some weapons to deploy on the power play that may be able to keep Switzerland hanging around. Leon Muggli’s shot from the point as well as his timing and vision are key factors for this group, and Daniil Ustinkov always brings the shifty skill and creativity to his power play time that you don’t get to see nearly as often in an offensive situation at 5v5. Does this team come home with a medal? I would be stunned, but this is a team that may be able to hang in there in an elimination game and hold back much better teams while chipping away at them with their offensive pieces on the roster, especially with strong goaltending from arguably any of the three that they’ve brought.

---

Czechia - 11.72 NHLeS Average - Ranked 5th

Player to Watch - Tomas Galvas - D - Bílí Tygři Liberec

The Czechs are always a bit of a tricky team to project. They often bring strong teams that may not immediately look like they match up well against the top end teams, but they always put forward an effort that puts them right there with them. This year’s iteration of the roster is a strong one in my opinion. Sure, Adam Jecho and Max Curran are probably going to be names people will first look at with their hulking frames and impressive moments of skill and thinking under pressure, but the rest of the roster is peppered with players who have impressed me this season. Adam Benák may be small, but the guy is electrifying. He pushes defenders onto their heels, challenges them, isn’t afraid to chase after his own chips into the offensive zone, and has been a serious offensive catalyst that earned time in the top pro division in Czechia. Not bad for a 5’7” 2025 NHL Draft-eligible. Tomas Galvas has been a favorite of mine, even if his NHL upside may be somewhat of a question mark. He’s agile, dynamic, has creative vision on the ice and certainly puts in the necessary effort defensively that should work just fine at this tournament. I was also legitimately very unhappy when Ondrej Kos was shut down for the season after a pretty strong first few months playing 2nd division pro hockey in Finland with KOOVEE. He’s big, highly skilled, and gives me echoes of what I remember of Jani Nyman a few years ago. Plenty of tools to be a strong power forward with some real high end moments and a quick release that should be a threat, especially if he’s out on the power play. Jakub Fibigr is coming off a great year with the Mississauga Steelheads as a defenseman who leads with his skating and patience with the puck, and while I’ve had some mixed viewings of him this year, he’s still got plenty of great tools that should showcase well here, and he should be a great supplementary offensive weapon behind Galvas for the Czechs. In my view this is a team that certainly could surprise people a bit and work their way to a medal performance with a balanced lineup with some pop at the top. That goes doubly if Matyas Marik can put up numbers like what he’s done in Czechia this season.

---

Finland - 12.1 Average NHLeS - Ranked 4th

Player to Watch - Aron Kiviharju - D - HIFK

Remember one of the cardinal rules of junior hockey: Never underestimate the Finns. Ever. If there is a country that somehow manages to find a way to win, it’s Finland, regardless of who they put on the roster. This season they seem to have brought quite a strong roster with some serious names in consideration for the 2024 NHL Draft. Of course, all eyes will be trained on Aron Kiviharju who has missed all but 7 games this season and is playing his first competitive hockey since October, and in my view, this tournament is a major point of interest for me to see if his relatively weak performance in Liiga is something to be legitimately concerned about. Veeti Väisänen will bring mobility and skill to the defensive side of the game, and there should be plenty of physical play to go with him in Emil Hemming, Joona Saarelainen and others. Up the middle the team is led of course by Konsta Helenius, coming off of an excellent season in Liiga donning the golden helmet a number of times at the pro level. Daniel Nieminen is a name I’ll have my eyes trained on specifically, though. The skating and skill combination are intriguing and he’s found himself on my list at various points this season, currently sitting on my watchlist for the 2024 NHL Draft. It’s a high profile tournament for him to showcase himself, but his international performances have been strong to date. Up and down the lineup there are players where I’ve gone “huh, that was neat” a number of times when seeing Finland play internationally. Mitja Jokinen, Natan Teshome, Markus Loponen, and Aatos Koivu should ring some good pace to the team even if many lack a certain level of finishing ability that could put this team over the top. Taken as a whole, this is a strong group at the top and should contend for some hardware if things break right, especially with someone like Konsta Helenius being a key focal point for the roster at both ends.

---

USA - 16.83 Average NHLeS - Ranked 3rd

Player to Watch - James Hagens - C - U.S. National U18 Team

The US national program is often favoured significantly in this tournament every season, but this year I have them a bit lower. This is largely due to just how evenly I see these top three teams. The NTDP roster is deep, and loaded with well-rounded high IQ players with an elite finisher in Cole Eiserman, who I expect will have a feast here, especially on power plays. I’m partially hoping Teddy Stiga has a coming out party, but selfishly I’d prefer him to keep flying under the radar. The defense group is deep and well-rounded, and I’m certainly looking forward to how Logan Hensler performs as he goes into his NHL Draft season next year. There are a lot of similarities to Sam Dickinson in my view and I am imagining that he will be taking the reins a bit here. Trevor Connelly is the only non-NTDP player on the roster but it shouldn’t take long to see why. I’ve found his play with Tri-City to be very individual and a bit ham-fisted, but regardless he was extremely productive and you should be able to see why very quickly here. Fast, skilled, resilient and above all else, confident, Connelly doesn’t shy away from challenging defenders and goaltenders and should be a key offensive weapon for the Americans. Another name I was pleasantly surprised to see here is L.J. Mooney. He’s a very small guy and a 2025 NHL Draft eligible player, but he’s just a lightning bolt out there with tons of skill and a high fun factor that should be an interesting watch. James Hagens may very well be the star of the show, however. The skill level he brings, combined with the smarts and timing with his playmaking are high-end, landing an assist per game this season to go with his 30 goals. While I’m not totally sold on “#1 Prospect for Next Year” status, I can’t see him being much further back and he should be a key cog on the American roster this year. While they may not have the unbelievably deep and skilled offensive roster they have had in years prior, they should have no problem going toe-to-toe with anyone while blowing out some of the smaller teams down the standings.

---

Sweden - 15.91 Average NHLeS - Ranked 2nd

Player to Watch - Alfons Freij - D - Växjö Lakers HC J20

There is a lot of hesitation in the hockey community about the 2006 class of Swedes but I’m not sure it’s as bad as portrayed. There is plenty of depth and very little in the way of weaknesses here. They have size and strength up the middle in Jack Berglund, and Hugo Orrsten, they have skilled playmaking in Viggo Nordlund, Alex Zetterberg, Lucas Pettersson and Victor Eklund, and defensively have a bit of everything as well. I look forward to Gabriel Eliasson being an insufferable jerk out there in a good way, even if he’s unranked on my board, and Felix Öhrqvist brings almost the polar opposite as an undersized, zippy and skilled offensive defenseman. The Växjö boys should be serious stars of the show though, and while eyes will likely be on Leo Sahlin Wallenius, I’ll be firmly trained on Alfons Freij. This is the biggest test he’s faced, and he’s been absolutely fantastic almost everywhere on the ice in every game I’ve seen, with NHL-projectable offensive skill and playmaking for a defenseman, or at least the kind of offensive defenseman that I’d be looking for personally. Viktor Eklund, brother of William is also here, and he along with Linus Eriksson have had excellent showings in HockeyAllsvenskan playing together. With intensity up and down the ice and remarkable smarts and positioning at any pace of play, especially with Linus Eriksson, they only continue to help round out a talented, balanced and relatively deep Swedish team that can go at it with anybody in the tournament. On top of it all, don’t look away from Love Härenstam in net. He has been excellent as a 2025-eligible in J20 Nationell this year and could backstop this team to a gold medal if he keeps up his level of play that I’ve seen this year.

---

Canada - 21.54 NHLeS Average - Ranked 1st

Player to Watch - Gavin McKenna - F - Medicine Hat Tigers

Canada often brings a somewhat lower quality team to this tournament as the CHL playoffs are ongoing and some players choosing to heal minor injuries or take some time off before the NHL Draft and Combine. This season seems different, even if they’re missing some key names. At least up front and in net, this roster looks stacked. Up and down the lineup there are just so many names that should be able to take over shifts in this tournament. Cole Beaudoin, Tij Iginla, Marek Vanacker, Carson Wetsch, Liam Greentree and Porter Martone are physical, resilient and determined players who can make an impact in all areas of the ice. Roger McQueen brings a solid power game with good finishing ability, and Ryder Ritchie, Jett Luchanko and Malcolm Spence bring intelligent offensive tools to the picture that should supplement everyone else well. In net you have the highly touted duo of Ryerson Leenders and Jack Ivankovic with Owen Sound’s Carter George, and while I’m partial to the Mississauga boys based on my viewings, any of the three should be strong options here. Defensively, the Canadians should at least have enough there to prevent dangerous chances against and move pucks into the neutral zone with strong efficiency. Harrison Brunicke gets around the ice well with solid shot-first offense, Henry Mews has great vision with the puck on his stick, Charlie Elick will try to ride the line between taking penalties and committing murder, with the rest of the group being younger and a little less refined but showing plenty of promise. I’ll be very curious to lay eyes on the 2025-eligibles, especially Matthew Schaefer who I’ve really enjoyed when watching Erie this year. Of course the star of the show to many will be Gavin McKenna. I’ll admit that I think the hype train on him is a little bit out of control already, he’s still an extraordinarily skilled and confident playmaker with strong finishing ability on his own. If he can avoid being too pressured physically which is where his game fell a bit short in my viewings, he could be a serious offensive threat here. Regardless, he’s the player on this roster who sits #1 in my NHLeS in the entire tournament, and has all the skill, creativity, vision and confidence necessary to be a hugely impactful player here. To me, Canada just brings a tsunami of offensive pieces across the spectrum of how offense can be generated, with a physical side to them that should still manage to keep them out of the box, at least as the tournament wears on. The defense group may be young, but it may not matter a ton with the talent elsewhere in the lineup and they at the very least sit in the top tier of teams in this tournament with the USA and Sweden.

---

Will’s All-Star Team Predictions

Forwards - Gavin McKenna (CAN) - Tij Iginla (CAN) - James Hagens (USA)

Defense - Alfons Freij (SWE) - Cole Hutson (USA)

Goaltender - Love Härenstam (SWE)

Scouching’s Penultimate 2024 NHL Draft Ranking

It’s that time again folks. NHL teams are being eliminated from playoff contention and legions of fans flock to people such as myself desperately hoping that their team selects boys who hopefully turn into men that help their not-good hockey teams become less not-good. We don’t have all the answers, but as the Fremen of Arrakis exemplify, sometimes all you have is hope, and hopefully I can provide some of that. It’s just too bad there’s no such thing as the Water of Life… What at least this overcommitted analyst has, is hundreds of games of player performances logged and data tracked, and thousands of games archived from generations past to reflect on and carry forward, and combining the data and video in the storage server can hopefully give you the guidance you’re looking for.

Various hockey leagues around the world are well into their playoff seasons, and with the Under-18 Championships coming in a few weeks, another quick cross-section of the 2024 NHL Draft Class is necessary. Plenty has changed, but my views on many players are solidifying, the takes are heating up, and I’m more and more ready to party when the time comes in Vegas. The 2024 NHL Draft class is certainly an interesting one. While I still believe this isn’t the deepest most loaded pool of players out there, it is definitely one of the more intriguing ones, full of players that will live or die by their development curves. So many players are so talented in certain subsections of the game, but show non-projectable traits in others. Some are balanced, but may not show enough to play a given role in the NHL down the road. Some are supremely talented but need to rely on that talent to get by, while others are supremely intelligent, hard-nosed players who PTFG (or, Play the F***ing Game for the uninitiated) but seem to lack the oomph necessary to drive serious results in the NHL without significant role creation and line construction strategy. Does that make it a “bad “ or “weak” draft class? Absolutely not. I’m not in the business of telling children their dreams won’t come true after all the work they’ve put in. There are players 'I’m skeptical on who may have a longer list of to-dos to work on, but that is a very different concept than their talents weakening the draft pool relative to other years.

On the whole, I’m on the record stating that this year’s draft isn’t a one-horse race to me. In fact, looking back at many recent drafts, you could argue that almost any recent draft isn’t a one-horse race, and drafts like 2023 are the exception rather than the mean. Beyond my first few names on the list, the draft opens up significantly. There are some players commonly ranked quite high who I frankly just think are much more part of the mix, largely because of the concerns around their deficiencies, but they certainly aren’t ineffective. In the mix with them are some highly intelligent and hard working names that might slip through the cracks. It doesn’t take very long for me to respond to the “who shoud we draft” question with “well, I don’t know, what do you value and how do you want your NHL team to play?” and there being a pool of about 40 players to pluck a name from. Past that, I dunno, just take the guys who you like and pray to Lisan Al-Ghaib. Who am I looking for? Players who drive results, put defenders on their heels, and make their linemates lives easier. If they end up and energy forward or a defenseman going out there and plugging holes for 12 minutes a night? Great! I always work from the perspective of NHL playoff hockey and the required traits there and work backwards. Not “who cross-checks the most per 60 minutes” but more, who can you pat on the back to go over the boards, and know you’re getting a 100% competitive effort out of them to play hard, play fast, play as a team, and score some god damned goals, even if you have to get greasy or clever to do it. All of the above is ideal, but past a certain point, I’m looking for players who do not sit back, do not rely on opponent mistakes and rely on their own compete level and their ability to drive play out of their zone and into the offensive zone, with actual offensive output being a nice bonus. Size to me, is not nearly as much of a factor. It just changes the necessary equation of what a player needs to do in order to be successful, and that goes at both extreme ends of that spectrum. Hopefully that helps you sift through and understand my logic a little more.

At this point you probably want me to just get to the dang list of children so fine, here we go.

---

Tier 1 - The Puppeteer Quadrumvirate

The first tier is pretty broad, but when all is said and done, these guys all could bring some amount of comparable value. Celebrini is of course the top of the heap and the name I’d be calling first, but losing the lottery is not the disaster some fans paint it out to be, at least not this year. All four of these players bring unique, high potential styles of play that any team would be happy to have more of.

• #1 | Macklin Celebrini | C | Boston University | Jan Rnk (1)

  What’s old is new again, and Macklin Celebrini remains at 1 on my board. One of the most well-rounded players at the high end of a draft in a while, Celebrini just goes out and plays really strong hockey. He times his plays well, chips in defensively in useful ways, and just knows how to score in a variety of ways in projectable areas of the ice. He’s a very strong shooter, but his playmaking goes hand-in-hand in many ways. He’s precise and surgical, intense, and shows great potential, especially if he gets a bit quicker to escape pressure more effectively. He’s likely at 1 in June, and whoever gets him is likely getting a great building block, if not a player you build a franchise around.

• #2 | Ivan Demidov | W | SKA St. Petersburg | Jan Rnk (4)

  Up from 4th, Ivan Demidov is now the 2nd player on my board. I just love tis guy. The skill level is elite. The confidence is beyond elite. He slips passes into scoring areas at rates that is higher than anyone I’ve tracked and he absolutely deserved to play tougher competition than the MHL. In my tracked data he’s off the charts and absolutely dominant. If you like fun, Demidov is your guy, and he’s improved on his ability to get up the ice quickly and make plays faster than he was when his game was a bit more problematic. In my view this is going to be the key to his future success, and how he adapts to better competition is going to be the do-or-die side to Demidov’s NHL game. If he can be an elite-level distributor with good timing and using his confidence properly, the potential is nearly limitless.

• #3 | Berkley Catton | C | Spokane Chiefs | Jan Rnk (2)

  This category was named The Puppeteer Quadrumvirate and nobody exemplifies this better than Berkly Catton of the Spokane Chiefs. Catton is a quick-thinking skilled centre who has a brilliant feel for the game, pushing and pulling the puck into open lanes, changing directions and pace to create important space to work with all over the ice. I don’t see him being as much of a goal scorer as his 50 goals might indicate, but his playmaking ability is undeniable. He’s a player who makes everyone around him look better, and pairing him with finishers will help them put production on the board that they need. He is one of the most enjoyable players in the entire draft that may lack the physical presence many bigger players may have, but his tactical and surgical approach to the game is hard to ignore. He’s a smart defender, but play in his own end is an area of potential improvement. His sense of timing is strong, but he can be caught too still to be much of a factor, and his physical play is not a strong point. His benefits come as a forechecker and quarterback in offensive transitions. He’s efficient, clever, and is the kind of player I’d always be looking to add.

• #4 | Cayden Lindstrom | C/RW | Medicine Hat Tigers | Jan Rnk (3)

  Lindstrom has finally returned for the WHL playoffs after missing over half the season, and he doesn’t seem to have missed too much of a beat. Lindstrom is the total package of tools and will be a very interesting player to track over the years. He’s tall, already 215 pounds, skates with fluidity and strength, and has very good skill to get through traffic and into open areas. He’s highly projectable to the NHL but he lacks a certain level of awareness and selflessness that could unlock a tremendous amount of potential. He’s a highly accurate passer in lower volumes, preferring to be more of a playmaker in scoring areas than in scoring areas, and his potential as a diversely talented forward that projects very well to the NHL is hard to ignore. The more time you take to develop him, the better off you’ll probably be. There is a ton of talent to work with, but some rough spots that hold back his potential somewhat. There is definitely a universe where he’s right up there with one of the best

Tier 2 - Roller Coaster Rides and Costco Hot Dogs

Every draft there’s a point where things drop off a little bit and a relatively large group of players that bring all kinds of different styles and possibilities depending on your preferences are available. In these cases, I dread being the teams at the top end of this range and would rather trade down and pick volume over everything, and this year is the same but cranked to 11. Some of these guys project to me like a Costco hot dog. Everyone likes them, they’re reliable, you can’t live on them, but you really appreciate it when you have one. Others are complete shots in the dark with high potential and ups and downs that will have to be managed and navigated. This group probably all ends up in somewhat similar spots in a given lineup performing different tasks, but there could be a few players in this range who really pop off over the next few years. Want my 18th ranked player at 5? Sure, I can be swayed based on what is valued and what it is that we’re looking for, but this would be my order of preference navigating this tough group.

• #5 | Alfons Freij | Växjö Lakers HC J20 | LSD | Jan Rnk (12)

  Freij this high is really only because I watch other players and bump them below him. Time after time, I’m given no reason for him to be moved down, and time after time I’m seeing reasons to lower other players below him. His skating, deception, skill level and quickness are elite. His ability to think creatively to make space for himself and create diversions is unique in this class. He generates offense without relying on point shots and d-to-d passing, able to create passing lanes and push into the offensive zone. He loses physical battles, sure, but he maintains possession and stick checks so well in transition that you almost never notice. There’s a real Sam Girard-type quality to his game, with excellent edges and creativity to push play offensively. He’s probably ranked too high on my list, but at the same time, I can’t move him below the names below his, even after watching him many times this season in different uniforms. I love him, he is my boy, and I remain extremely optimistic about his potential as a premier modern defenseman with great offensive potential.

• #6 | Adam Jiricek | HC Plzeň | LHD | Jan Rnk (5)

  I may be one of a dwindling group, but I still believe, dangit. I think Jiricek is all potential, and I do admit his Czech pro league play indicated that he was physically outmatched, but his World Junior performance was strong, his 4-Way mobility is arguably the best in the draft, and every time I watch him, I can see something really impressive with Jiricek. There could be offensive potential to build on and years of calm, patient development overseas would do him very well in my view. He seemed uncomfortable with the pace and physicality of the top division in Czechia, but that isn’t an easy league to play in for a teenager. He’s a tough projection, but I’m faithful that he’ll work his way into the middle of an NHL lineup someday.

• #7 | Zeev Buium | Univ. of Denver | LHD | Jan Rnk (6)

  I’ve been a big fan of Zeev Buium all year, but I do admit there are some questions about his projection. I love the calm, calculated but skilled approach he brings. His ability to bait and deceive forecheckers is high end, the puck protection and evasion in the offensive zone is impressive and he finds a way to be effective everywhere on the ice. There’s a big part of me that feels he should be a bit lower, but replace him with whom? This range is all very close and I could be swayed any number of ways. Buium’s physical play and quickness to chase loose pucks and close wide gaps is a work in progress, but he’s a calculated gunslinger with the puck and has been impressive every game I’ve seen over the last couple years.

• #8 | Artyom Levshunov | Michigan State Univ. | RHD | Jan Rnk (9)

  Someone on the show asked what player I’ve come the furthest on since the beginning of the season, and Levshunov is the easiest answer I could think of. While I don’t see him as the top tier defender of the draft many do, I certainly think there’s a strong NHL role there as a defensive stopper with a bit of an offensive size. Levshunov may need some improvements to his lateral gap closures as he can lose physical battles chasing contact from a distance, or just plain get beat by faster players. That said, he’s a hulking and fluid skater who has great moments of puck movement and short range pass vision. I feel there’s a strong NHL floor for Levshunov, even if his offense may not project extremely well as-is. He’s a defender that shows a clear capability and willingness to defend, and with time, he could become a solid rock on the back end of an NHL team with some intriguing pass-centric transition play.

• #9 | Trevor Connelly | Tri-City Storm | LW | Jan Rnk (14)

  Every game I see of Connelly I go through a range of emotions and thoughts. There are some truly, truly high end moments with him, and in terms of raw quickness, skill, and determination, Connelly can be right up at the top of the class at times. At other times I’ve found him a bit careless with his shot selection and pass selection. He clearly loves to have the puck on his stick, but sometimes that love goes too far. He can skate into unwinnable situations or bring puck into low scoring areas and put soft attempts on net, but the potential is tantalizing. Slot pass rates are strong, and his offensive transition numbers are great. He’s heavily relied up on with Tri-City to quarterback pucks up the ice and he does so effectively, and very often. Could he go higher than this? It’s possible. Could he slip a bit for a few different reasons? I could see that as well, but the talent is clearly there, and with some guidance, higher quality linemates, and time, there could be quite the offensive leaning winger here one day.

• #10 | Tij Iginla | Kelowna Rockets | LW | Jan Rnk (21)

  One of those players who carries a certain level of clear projectability that is tough to ignore in this draft class, Tij Iginla is just such a rock solid hockey player around the ice. I know that isn’t the most detailed analysis you’ve probably heard, but there just isn’t an area where Iginla truly shows weakness, and his strengths are diverse and solid. You can look at his goal totals and think he’s a triggerman, but you would be mistaken. Iginla’s offesive game is well-rounded, trying to create offense both for himself and linemates in scoring areas, with solid but not spectacular offensive threat metrics, and a high rate of shot attempt creation while on the ice. His ability to catch pucks in motion and carry momentum across bluelines and find pathways through opponents at a strong pace. He’s determined, quick on his feet, skilled, and more selfless than his raw production would indicate. It will be interesting if his intense, attacking style with the puck translates to the NHL, but there is plenty to fall back on and develop with Iginla, and he’s worked his way up my board one slot at a time this year.

• #11 | Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | Mora IK | RW | Jan Rnk (7)

  Brandsegg-Nygård comes in a bit later, but I could easily be swayed to look at him a bit earlier. A highly intelligent power forward that I believe is well tailored to the modern NHL, Brandsegg-Nygård is a careful and accurate passer, an annoying physical presence both on and off the puck, a tactical defender, and a very practical applicator of the skill level he possesses. He makes one move around a defender because that’s all that’s necessary to get a scoring chance. He pre-plans his puck protection down low and finds ways through pressure. He has some creative small area passing work at times. Since the World Juniors, he has scored 16 of the 22 points he’s scored all season in HockeyAllsvenskan, and has really found a level of confidence and resilience that I was hoping to see more of. There are a lot of positives to his game, and not a whole ton of negatives that really bother me. Is he a top line winger? Not unless he’s the complimentary physical piece, but a very useful forward up and down your lineup and on special teams is entirely possible.

• #12 | Liam Greentree | Windsor Spitfires | RW | Jan Rnk (17)

  If there is an award for Most Interesting Player With One Critical Flaw, I think it might go to Greentree. If he carried a bit more quickness and proactivity on the puck, he may very well be right up near the top of my ranking this year. Greentree is extremely difficult to knock off the puck, extremely difficult to knock out of rush lanes, and extremely difficult to prevent from finding some way to create a scoring chance. The guy has been an extremely high end offensive transition middleman, one of the most threatening shooters in my database, and has very high end rates of slot pass attempts. There really isn’t a ton for him to work with in Windsor this year, but he’s clearly doing what he can. Could his lower pace, high resilience style of play translate? Sure! Is he going to be a massive producer in the NHL? I have no idea but I think it’s possible with some level of improvement to the pace of his game. He invites contact and adapts to it extremely well, but to me that’s a dangerous game to play long term. He makes it work though, and unlike almost anyone I’ve tracked over the years. There is that “ok, how is going to get out of this one…. oh, like that, nice” vibe to Greentree, and it happens extremely often.

• #13 | Teddy Stiga | U.S. National U18 Team | C/LW | Jan Rnk (28)

  Another player I may have ranked a bit high, but I just keep bumping other players down behind him, Stiga has been impressive every single game I’ve seen of him. He has ridiculous rates of offensive creation off his own stick and for others, he’s got a heck of a motor and intensity level that earns him more offensive zone turnovers generated than many in my database. His rate of shot assists in dangerous areas so far is higher than many players rates of shot assists from anywhere. He’s a guy who likely goes undervalued because of his size, but over time in college just turns into a menace of a hockey player that teams kick themselves for not taking a chance on. He drives such great excellent results without having to float around waiting for someone else to do the dirty work. He has the quickness and willingness to get involved defensively and actually pulls many of these plays off effectively. I’ve been pleasantly surprised with him more and more this season and could be great value in the 2024 Draft.

• #14 | Sam Dickinson | London Knights | LHD | Jan Rnk (15)

  At this point my brain is so scrambled trying to figure out Sam Dickinson that I may just have to accept that I am undervaluing him and may look silly. I’ve seen him a ton this year, and far more often than not, I’ve seen more things that concern me than excite me. I love his puck protection in the offensive zone, I like his ability to time stick checks and quickly turn pucks back offensively, and I do see a lot of potential somewhere in there. On the flipside, he’s a low volume shooter and shot assist generator at 5v5 for a player at almost a point per game, he’s turning over about 2/3 of the offensive transitions he attempts and is extremely pass-heavy in that regard, and I have found Dickinson to be a much more laid-back, passive and positional defender more often than I’d like. The weird thing is that I find is strongest moments are carrying and moving pucks on his own, but he very rarely does it. No matter which way you slice it, the data isn’t spectacular, and I’ve found my viewings of him to be somewhat underwhelming… until they’re not. He’s one of these weird players this year that I still have trouble getting a read on, and remain somewhat conservative relative to most.

• #15 | Cole Eiserman | U.S. National U18 Team | LW | Jan Rnk (11)

  Speaking of scrambled brains, Eiserman has done the same for me this year. I do believe he’s improved over the year with his shot selection and picking his spots to be physical and I am less concerned with his game than I was. Why is he lower than where I had him? I don’t really have a good answer for you! I do think there are still issues with shot selection and his ability to drive play at 5v5 is a bit mixed and often reliant on others. That said, I think Eiserman’s playmaking and creativity with his passing in the offensive zone is understated. He can make bewildering decisions, float around a bit too often waiting for breakouts, chase physical play when he has no business doing so, and is a somewhat leaky defensive rush player, but I’ll still have my eyes trained on him often down the stretch. He’s still in my 2nd tier and if you want a raw, but highly talented shooter with signs of something more there, I could be swayed to take him significantly higher than this spot.

• #16 | Igor Chernyshov | Dynamo Moskva | Jan Rnk (19) | LW

  Chernyshov has spent essentially the whole season with Dynamo Moskva in the KHL and hasn’t really looked out of place there. To me, he projects as a talented and creative complimentary offensive piece of the puzzle. Rarely taking low percentage shots, doing a solid job of generating shot assists, and having great transition involvement and solid efficiency rates, he’s a strong profile for a KHL player. His defensive play is more positional and timing-focused rather than intensity-based, but he does fine in that area, breaking cycles an generating offensive zone turnovers at a good rate. I do worry about what role Chernyshov plays in the NHL exactly where he finds huge success, as he lacks a certain level of quickness thanks to a bit of an inefficient skating stride, but he’s a good puck protector at this level and is rarely giving up on his possessions. He’s a bit of an offensive blank slate with a diverse set of “good but not great” tools, but there is definitely a lot to work with. A few years in Russia could do Chernyshov well so long as he keeps himself in the KHL and an offensive zone focused dual-threat scorer is not out of the equation down the road.

• #17 | Luke Misa | Mississauga Steelheads | LW/C | Jan Rnk (16)

  I flip back and forth on Misa so much you may as well call me Flapjack. I adore the pace and intensity he brings to the game. He’s an elite offensive transition player. He’s determined, battles hard, and is equal parts playmaker and shooter. He’s a fearless player that I think people overlook because of how he’s more speed and quickness oriented than puck protection oriented, and does look pretty small out there admittedly. If you ask me though, I would love to see if this is a motivator for Misa out there. He certainly doesn’t float around and wait for things to happen. He’s trying to make things happen often, at least offensively. I admit his defensive results aren’t great, but offsetting that with excellent forechecking data and very strong offensive production metrics relaxes me a bit. I love this guy, he goes hard, and he should see people questioning him as a motivator, because he certainly carries the on-ice mindset and work rate that could prove them wrong. Creative, slick, and high effort, Misa brings a lot to the table that could bring great value much later than where I have him ranked.

• #18 | Zayne Parekh | Saginaw Spirit | D | Jan Rnk (22)

  There is no player I have ever tracked in my years of watching hundreds of performances a year like Zayne Parekh. He is one of the most extreme and polarized players I think I’ve ever seen. He’s the most productive draft-eligible defender in the OHL in decades and that can’t be ignored. Exploring things a bit more, my issues with Parekh lie in projecting him to the NHL. I know there are those that think his defensive shortcomings are overblown, but I can’t ignore what I’ve seen and tracked. If he’s not using his skating to track down errant breakouts, he’s not very involved in defensive rushes, and when he is, he’s often leaky and can get turned around and left behind. His defensive play along the boards is a mixed bag at best and I can’t set the number of times I’ve seen play not go his way outside of the offensive zone. The skill level and deceptive footwork along the offensive blueline is top of the class, but I also can’t help but downgrade a player, especially a defenseman, whose best traits come out once the puck is in the offensive zone. Parekh’s passing in transition is very hit or miss, and he very rarely strays from a low pace pass-first style of puck possession. He’s a massive shot volume player, and often from the perimeter which is difficult to project. That said, his ability to draw pressure and open space is very high end, his skill level is obvious, and I can’t deny that he doesn’t at least deserve to come up in discussions involving any of the players in this tier. I just can’t think of an NHL player that leans this heavily offensively and plays like Parekh does. I’ve heard Evan Bouchard, but he’s more of a puck carrier with an elite level shot from the point, and even Bouchard carries warts that makes fans and coaches crazy at times. Parekh is going to be fascinating to keep track on. There have been a ton of CHL defenders with a ton of production that have come and gone from the NHL over the last 5-10 years and after exploring those players, I have a hunch on what they have in common, and I can’t help but be concerned that Parekh may fall into that category as well. I’ve watched a ton of him. At times, he’s very impressive, but I simply can’t set aside the plays that Parekh falls short on and hope things work out.

Tier 3 - A Bunch of Neat Dudes and Home Run Swings

The separation between tiers 2 and 3 is extremely marginal, especially with the top few names, but I feel as though this group brings a smidge less in terms of potential value, or likelihood of getting where they could possibly get. A lot of these players are highly intelligent players that are still developing the finer points of the game on the ice, which could help boost them up the list a bit, especially the very young ones. A few come of to me as NHL role players down the lineup. They have a job, and they do the job well. Physical defenders, complimentary energy players, bottom six minutes eaters, etc. It’s a curious group of players I’m willing to gamble on and players that show a good amount of projectability, albeit in somewhat limited breadth.

• #19 | Andrew Basha | Medicine Hat Tigers | F | Jan Rnk (10)

  I go back and forth on Basha almost every month. In terms of raw, pure pace, skill, and quickness, Basha might be right up at the top of the class. The issues lie with the issues commonplace with undersized forwards. When he has space to play with or a lane to exploit, he’s magic. Some of the most impressive single sequences I have seen from any player this year have come from Basha. The rest of the time though, it’s easy to miss Basha for stretches. He isn’t much of a physical factor with or without the puck, and his offensive creation metrics trail many players in my first round in aggregate. That said, Basha is an electric player. He’s quick to accelerate, quick with his hands, and uses quick thinking to jump the puck into open space and pierce through defenses. When it works, it’s awesome, but Basha will need time to gain some physical resilience on the puck under heavy pressure and find ways to strip puck and get off the boards a bit better. There’s a ton of upside for a flashy creative complementary playmaker in a top six, but there likely isn’t a bottom six NHL player you fall back on if things don’t break right.

• #20 | Anton Silayev | Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod | D | Jan Rnk (13)

  Silayev is the other ultimate unicorn and the first of the home run swings in this list. He is as raw as it gets. Tall, decently built out already, and a highly fluid skater on his inside edges helps him in many situations, but basically everything else is hit or miss. Granted, he improved significantly from where he was at the start of the year. The tracked data is pretty clear as to what he is at this point. A safe and efficient passer, not a ton of offensive quarterbacking and not great at it when he tries, and lower than average defensive involvement but efficient when involved with a physical side. Is there more to be extrapolated? With more skills training settling pucks, and more experience to quicken his on-ice thinking in the defensive zone could help. There is a solid chance he could be a middle pair defense-first guy who can throw a good hit, but I value what I see now pretty heavily, and Silayev is a huge work in progress. Literally. Luckily he’ll have all the time he needs with one of the few Russian programs clearly willing to push young players beyond their development curves.

• #21 | Dominik Badinka | Malmö Redhawks | D | Jan Rnk (33)

  Slowly one step at a time climbing up my list, Badinka is the brand of defenseman I’ve grown to appreciate over the years. Badinka is a guy I’ve been watching and enjoying since his Jokerit days, and seeing him move up and snag a full time SHL position has pleased me greatly. Badinka is the embodiment of modern defense-first player, but don’t count out the offense he has generated through hard stretch passing and a hard shot from the point. Badinka is a tall, fluid skating defender who covers ice well in stride, monitors gaps well, and erases puck carriers effectively. His data profile looks eerily similar to Anton Silayev, but you may be able to get him a round later. He’s an effective breakout generator through his passing and while I don’t see him winning Norris Trophies or playing 25 minutes a night very easily, he’s a player who could eat solid minutes while participating in enabling offense for other players with the vision and shot he carries.

• #22 | Tomas Galvas | Bílí Tygři Liberec | D | Jan Rnk (31)

  Here we have a home run swing. I’ve really liked Galvas most of this season, and to me he’s improved over the year especially after his impressive run at the World Juniors. Galvas is a little small, but he carries high end footwork and quickness that helps him cover ice extremely well, closing gaps and being involved defensively very often. An equally effective stick checker as he is positional defender, Galvas drives efficient transition data in both directions, with some very interesting offensive threat potential that rivals many high end defenders in this draft not playing against pro competition. He’s confident, shifty, skilled, and highly mobile, but defensive play in his own end is a softer area. He does get removed from play and beat positionally in scoring areas and will need to use his feet to stick to open men a bit better. To me, the good outweighs the bad, and players higher than Galvas on my prior list seemed to be ranked a bit too highly for me. He’ll need time to become a truly high end skill+skating combo player in order for it to work, but he could be a highly dynamic and crafty defender if things go his way.

• #23 | Nikita Artamonov | Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod | RW/LW | Jan Rnk (8)

  Artamonov has dropped significantly for me since January after watching him a few more times. I respect the heck out of the work rate and the smarts he brings to the table. He’s selfless, times passes well, has good vision, even under pressure along the boards, is one of the most involved transition players I’ve tracked this year in both directions for a forward, and driving good results there. Why the drop? Well, I love the kid, but there isn’t a ton of projectable consistent offense there that makes me think he’s anything more than a workhorse complimentary energy player down an NHL lineup. His shot selection leaned heavily in the wrong direction, he had low pass volumes, lower in threatening areas, very low rates of shot assists, even when factoring in how often Nizhny Novgorod was getting pummeled and wasn’t producing a ton of offense. Artamonov is a player where the whole time you think “this is pretty great” but that next “and then what happens” when it comes to offense just falls short far more often than it comes together. I still have him ranked above consensus it seems, and I think he’d be a great pickup if he’s a 2nd rounder, especially because I do believe there’s potential for more. As of right now, he’s a very admirable worker who drives efficient results in transition and some solid defensive numbers but lacks consistent offensive output that scouts may be looking for.

• #24 | Konsta Helenius | Jukurit | C/RW | Jan Rnk (30)

  I’ve seen Helenius about 12 times this year. I just keep going back and making sure I’m sure I think what I think. Helenius is absolutely one of the smarter, tactical players in the draft per puck touch. He capitalizes on opponent errors well which happen often in Liiga, he throws hits more than many, but the actual effectiveness of that contact is bit mixed. An efficient transition player, largely through finding space to make himself a pass target in stride and finding a quick passing option to keep the puck moving, Helenius brings plenty to the table. So why is he 10-15 slots below consensus? There isn’t much that really screams “this is what I will be good at in the NHL” with Helenius. He’s got very low pass volumes, not the best rates of completion, he struggles to get off the boards and resist tight physical pressure, he lacks quickness in close quarters and can fall off his defensive coverages, and his rate of shot assists is quite low. He makes things count when he gets the opportunity, but creating those opportunities himself in a way I can see being a major driver in the NHL as-is remains a question to me. I expect a huge U18 from him, but I’ll be paying attention to the details of his game that I’ve had concerns about to see if there’s something I’m still missing.

• #25 | Michael Hage | Chicago Steel | C | Jan Rnk (27)

  Michael Hage’s data profile is outstanding. Efficient offensive transition quarterback in every category equally. Super high rates of dangerous shooting, high rates of slot pass attempts, creating 40% of Chicago’s shot attempts on the ice, and chips in defensively where he can. I could easily be swayed to take a chance on him higher based on the skill level and determination Hage brings to the game. He’s evasive, slippery, and has neat touch on the puck to make complex passes off the boards or at weird angles look easy. The one weakness is a bit of an inefficient skating stride, flaring his feet out and a bit hunched over without the puck which limits his quickness and ability to effectively challenge puck carriers. He has good involvement defensively, but not so good efficiency. Frankly I’d rather start with that than someone who is significantly more passive in general, but it’s worth noting. I’ve got a wide range of thoughts on Hage, but many of them are positive and I think he could outperform his draft slot if he goes this late and things go well in college

• #26 | Linus Eriksson | Djurgårdens IF | C | Jan Rnk (43)

  This guy has just looked better and better since he landed himself in HockeyAllsvenskan. Similar to Helenius, he’s an intelligent positional player, finding pockets of space to work with, making well timed stick checks to close out opponent rushes. He’s a physical player as well, gets up and down the ice effectively, and factors into a ton of the limited offense that Djurgårdens put forward in my games tracked. There’s a quietly scary wrist shot locked away there that should be encouraged over time, but this one is a relatively straightforward profile where there’s a level of stability with his style of play up the middle of the ice. If you put talented scorers with Eriksson he’ll cover the defensive side of things well and get those players the puck as needed.

• #27 | John Mustard | Waterloo Black Hawks | F | Jan Rnk (25)

  What the heck is John Mustard? That might be the wrong question. The right one is “what could John Mustard be?” and the answer is one of a number of possibilities. The USHL rookie showed a ton of potential with his raw speed, the skill he pulls out at those speeds, and a lightning quick shot that put him up near the top of Waterloo’s scoring for much of the year. The problem is that it often felt like he seemed like the only player on the ice. That speed and intensity only really came out when the puck hit his stick, and his carrying efficiency in high volume was less than desirable. He certainly preferred to carry pucks, and I’d encourage that but more refinement to his puck control, timing and lane selection would help a ton. He’s one of the lowest pass rate players I’ve tracked in junior hockey, and not a particularly dependable one, with very limited shot assist rates, but there is still so much to work with here. I thought his All-American Game performance was top notch, and if he can put in 200-foot physical effort with the tools he has, and takes the next step with his speed/skill combination, he could be an excellent player up and down the ice that may lean more shot-heavy than you’d like, but it’s a dang good shot to rely on. He likely goes later than this, but I think there’s plenty of potential and the right team could get a very solid player here.

• #28 | Topias Hynninen | Jukurit | LW/C | Jan Rnk (23)

  I know I’m alone on an island with Hynninen, but I think he has just as much of a chance of being a skilled energy player in the NHL as many guys ranked around here. He’s more involved in transitions both directions than Helenius, one of the most intense stick checkers defensively of any forward I’ve tracked, doubles Helenius’ rate of shot assists, and gives it everything he’s got every shift. He catches pucks in transitions extemely well, carries his momentum into the offensive zone efficiently, and shows plenty of potential. He was more productive down the back half and the real shortcoming comes with his puck management and decisionmaking in the offensive zone. He’s got a great shot, but just doesn’t get to or chooses not to use it way too often. He’ll look off pass options and maintain possession, only to lose it, but to me, if I’m coaching him, it’s easy to work with a player who has the capability of doing a thing that doesn’t happen often to do that thing more often. So many things go his way, it’s just the “putting the puck on net and keeping possession” side of things in the OZ that is a work in progress. He fights through pressure, gets out of jams often, and showed extremely well in the Mestis games I saw that seemed to breathe a certain amount of life into his game. He won’t be at the U18s, so I expect him to continue to fly under the radar, but this is a player I easily target in the middle rounds.

• #29 | Jett Luchanko | Guelph Storm | RW/C | Jan Rnk (41)

  The 2024 NHL Draft is characterized by a ton of players who may lack the high end tools others have, but have a brilliant grasp on how to just go out and get results. Luchanko may be the pinnacle of that archetype this season. It took a while but he grew on me the more I saw little details in his game. He’s very young for the draft class, but drove ridiculous offensive numbers in my data, a least to this point. He positions himself excellently on breakouts, makes brilliantly times passes in transition often, and keeps his offensive game simple and effective. He isn’t a super common shooter relative to his linemates but he never takes low danger chances. His volumes from scoring areas are huge, largely from tips, battles, rebounds and following up on loose pucks in space. He’s constantly around or going to the net and he’s only gotten better and better results as the season goes on. By end of year he may very well be higher on my board, but he does lack a bit of quickness and off-puck intensity in his game that keeps him out of many defensive situations. He’s a fascinating case study who brings a lot to the table, and his skill development from here could take him a ways. Considering he’s almost a year younger than some top prospects this year, he’s got plenty of runway to work with.

• #30 | Stian Solberg | Vålerenga | D | Jan Rnk (45)

  Speaking of players who have grown on me, Stian Solberg! Early in the year he came off as a safe, stable physical defender, but his impressive World Junior performance made me rethink some things and go back with a different outlook. His possession numbers aren’t great, and he isn’t a particularly common shooter, but he is definitely the most physical defender I’ve seen this year. When he makes contact in transition, it works. You aren’t getting through him. The guy is a rock on skates with a good set of feet under him, and seems to have a good grasp of the layout of the ice, making good reads more often than not. It’s the late first round, and I think this guy could eat minutes, and kill penalties with potentially a bit of offensive pop tucked away. The focus though is the combination of mobility and physicality that you can’t ignore, so consider me a converted fan.

• #31 | Beckett Sennecke | Oshawa Generals | RW | Jan Rnk (35)

  Sennecke is one of those guys where I still really don’t know what I think. There are long stretches where he’s a low-pace, simple puck mover who brings a straightforward but effective approach, finding ways to create chances for linemates under pressure and showing projectable traits to the NHL is some fashion. Then once in a while you see him get in full stride, catch a puck in motion, do some crazy skill move or skate-y spin on the fly, and put some kind of impressive play together. His tracked data is largely very positive through it all, but some of his performances have been far more intriguing than others. In the modern physical grinding but fast NHL, there are jobs that Sennecke can do, especially when you consider the late growth spurt it seems he hasn’t grown into. He’ll probably go higher than this, and I’m not against the idea considering how projectable his game is. How much of an impact player will he be remains to be seen but he’s guy who has looked impressive in isolated moments many times.

• #32 | Daniil Ustinkov | GC Küsnacht Lions | D | Jan Rnk (24)

  Closing out the first round, Ustinkov is a player I’ve had a keen eye on for two seasons now. The epitome of smart, stable defending and puck movement, Ustinkov may not jump off the scoresheet, but he’s a rock solid player that shows wisps and signs of something more tucked away. He’s an incredibly efficient transition player, rarely taking too much risk and giving himself too much to worry about, timing his passes extremely well and maintaining possession extremely well. There just isn’t much defending he has to do in his own end because of how efficient he is off the puck. He reads errant passes and breakouts well to fetch loose pucks in the neutral zone and makes smart, safe plays to get play turned around again, and the flashes of skill and quickness, especially at the Swiss League level gives plenty of signs of potential. He can get beat by faster players and I would certainly want to work on his backwards mobility and strength to push players away from the dot line a bit better, but there’s potential here. Ustinkov is currently with a great program in Switzerland and a pro hockey mainstay already, so three-ish more seasons over there with plenty of international experience should do him well.

Tier 4 - Spin the Wheel of Destiny

This group is just plain fun. Some inconsistent but highly skilled players, some players who provide great supplemental help without a ton of projection, potential energy players down your lineup, and some home run swings on players you might be able to snag towards the end of the draft. Ranges like the end of Tier 3 and the majority of this tier are why I always would encourage loading up on as many picks in the 20-64 range as you possibly can, because of all of these players, I’m willing to bet that some have just as useful an NHL career as players drafted ahead of them. Some of these players are lower pace guys that invite and adapt to heavy pressure very well which helps their projection somewhat as well. It’s a deep group with plenty going on in a variety of ways, it’ll just be a matter of priority and risk tolerance.

• #33 | Noel Fransén | Färjestad BK J20 | D | Jan Rnk (34)

  It feels like I’ve seen Fransen 40 times this year because I cannot begin to understand why he’s completely off so many lists. From what I can gather, he’s not the most mobile defender while skating backwards and heavily prefers stick checks from range rather than close quarters defending, and blocking defensive transitions is a bit leaky for him right now, but other than that, I just can’t wrap my head around it. Färjestad is consistently one of the most boring teams at both ends of anyone I’ve tracked this year. That said, Fransen factors into a ton of their offense as you can imagine, with forward-like offensive transition involvement and high efficiency. A quick shot from the point leads to a lot of his offense, but he doesn’t use it tremendously often. This is a calculated, mobile and creative defenseman with strong metrics almost everywhere you look. Considering where he’s rated to go, a team could get just as good a bet as any that this player could turn out to be a steal one day.

• #34 | Lucas Pettersson | MoDo Hockey J20 | C | Jan Rnk (26)

  Pettersson drops a bit, even though his production increased as I expected in softer competition down the stretch. He’s a player with some magical moments of speed bursts and evasive skill, with very good playmaking metrics, but I’m always left wanting more out of him. He’s passive off the puck and not very effective when he does get involved, he drives up the ice well, but needs others to find him in motion. There is plenty of talent there, and he’s taken over shifts here and there, but this is a high upside, low floor player to me and I’m a bit skeptical after quite a few viewings.

• #35 | Miguel Marques | Lethbridge Hurricanes | F | Jan Rnk (32)

  I’ll admit at time of writing I haven’t seen Marques in a while, but there is plenty of good evidence that you have a highly skilled, highlight-capable puck carrier here. Huge rates of slot passing and great offensive transition numbers, Marques is a player who in isolated moments has viral GIF-capable skill, but can also disappear into the ether of the game for stretches. In the offensive zone is where his game really shines though, finding seams and open men in dangerous spots more than many in my database and enabling others more than taking too many chances himself. He may end up a bit higher on my list again down the road, but there’s a level of uncertainty with his projection at higher levels. If he can apply his skill level at higher pace and get some better scoring chances for himself more often, there’s plenty of potential when combined with his playmaking ability.

• #36 | Ollie Josephson | Red Deer Rebels | F | Jan Rnk (NR)

  From a player I hadn’t seen yet in January to a top 40 slot seems crazy, but Josephson is right up my alley. Excellent possession results, excellent transition quarterbacking ability, brilliant results passing in general, a factor in well over 50% of his team’s shot attempts, and highly involved and efficient defensively. He’s relentless, applying pressure quicky and effectively all around the ice and causing turnovers with his stick checks extremely well. He’s near the top of the database for forwards when it comes to physical contact along the boards and forechecks result in offensive zone turnovers. He’s an analytical darling in almost every way outside of generating truly dangerous scoring chances for linemates. He gets his chances from dangerous spots well, so improving his shot should improve his production, and finding ways to thread more passes into scoring areas would improve things as well. I always have faith in players who have pace in their game and positives pretty much everywhere, especially quarterbacking rushes and chipping in defensively. Basically everything goes right for Josephson except putting the puck in the net, but he’s certainly showing all the signs of that improving over time.

• #37 | Emil Hemming | TPS | RW | Jan Rnk (18)

  Hemming has fallen somewhat, but I still think there’s a neat player there. He’s got pace in his game, pursues puck carriers well, has a physical edge, a bit of skill and a heck of a mid-range release. He’s very much a catch-and-release player though and is often not much of a factor in play until he is. Plenty of areas of his game are perfectly fine, which for a player playing professional competition is notable. I can see a player who can be a secondary power play shooting threat and a complimentary power winger that should project fine to the NHL. It also should be noted that TPS is not putting a ton of pucks on net, but Hemming is responsible either for over 45% of their attempts, largely through his own shooting, they’re just often from a distance, when he has the strength, pace and skill to push deeper into scoring areas.

• #38 | Herman Träff | HV71 J20 | LW/RW | Jan Rnk (49)

  Träff has been on my radar for two seasons now iand I’m pleasantly surprised with how he’s evolved over this year. At first there were concerns as he wasn’t pushing play as much as he could with the size, intensity and skill level I saw last year, but he was scoring goals with a lightning quick release through traffic. Since earning an SHL call-up, Träff has shown to be a very well-rounded physical winger who can fill in up the middle of the ice if need be. He’s aggressive, intense, physical, and has a great touch of the puck for a big man. He’s highly responsible for a lot of HV71s offense, even in the SHL largely through his mid to long-range shooting. Similar to Hemming, I’d love to see more willingness for Träff to get right to the net and generate chances through using his frame and strength, but there are many positive signs in his game.

• #39 | Carter Yakemchuk | Calgary Hitmen | D | Jan Rnk (44)

  I really have had a tough time with Yakemchuk this year. He’s one of the players I’ve logged the most data on, and the results so far are extremely mixed. The high points of his game are admittedly high, but the issue comes from a similar critique of Zayne Parekh where I’m not sure how I feel about defensemen whose best assets are displayed when the puck is already in the offensive zone. Yakemchuk has the skill level and willingness to bait defenders and make them look awfully silly to step up off the half wall and put himself in scoring position and rifle shots past goaltenders. The issue is getting the puck there in the first place. Yakemchuk is a player who sits back quite often defensively, and struggles to consistently get breakouts started with clean possession. Maybe I’m just seeing all the wrong games so far, but I’ve seen him as high as the top 5 and I just can’t see how I would put him there. As one of the oldest players in the draft, his timeline is significantly shorter than many others in this class who are up to a full year older. If his non-forwards skating can improve to better close gaps and play physically more effectively, there could be a solid defender here, but he seems like a player part of the much larger group that could fill in the middle of an NHL lineup if things go well.

• #40 | Sacha Boisvert | Muskegon Lumberjacks | C | Jan Rnk (20)

  This is yet another player I’ve gone back and forth on all season. Boisvert has some amazing moments of skill, slip passes and shooting, but so often during the game he just isn’t much of a factor. He’s barely involved in transition an unreliable when he is involved defensively, but uses his skill and body to protect pucks well and stay efficient offensively. He’s got a great shot release from mid-range, and as a complimentary offensive centre, there’s tons of potential with Boisvert. There’s almost a Pierre-Luc Dubois-esque profile here. Sometimes he’s there and you really notice him, sometimes he’s not doing much and leaves you wanting. I love the ups, but there are a lot of shruggables with Boisvert.

• #41 | Cole Beaudoin | Barrie Colts | C | Jan Rnk (47)

  This guy is going to be annoying in the NHL one day if he gets there. Always active up and down the ice, willing to drop the gloves and get his hands dirty, goes to the net, funnels pucks to the net both on the rush and off the boards, and drives quite a lot of the offense for Barrie while he’s on the ice. Efficient in transition, he’s right up there with the best northbound puck carriers in the draft. He’s an interesting player without a whole lot of real downsides, but it’ll be a matter of how much strength and speed he puts on over the next few years to play a role down an NHL lineup. Lots to really like, not much to love or dislike, Beadoin projects to me as a player fans could love, and a player who really comes alive in the fast, physical, and insane Stanley Cup Playoffs.

• #42 | Marek Vanacker | Brantford Bulldogs | LW | Jan Rnk (74)

  Vanacker has grown on me over the year the more I watch him. He’s really ramped up the pace of his thinking and his ability to corral pucks, get a view of the ice and make some kind of play in scoring areas. He leans more playmaker in the games I’ve seen, and he’s often not much of a puck carrier thanks to a bit of a lack of speed and pace, but he works around it well. Battling along the boards, snagging pucks and putting them in front or sneaking passes across the crease, Vanacker just goes out and plays the game well. He’s resilient, and highly intelligent with his pass receptions and pass creation in transition, leading to some very high volume and efficiency metrics offensively. I dig him and think he projects decently, and he could believably go quite a bit higher than where I have him, but I’ll have to check him out a few more times before I put him there myself.

• #43 | Fyodor Avramov | Kapitan Stupino | LW | Jan Rnk (46)

  Avamov caught my eye watching another team as a big, skilled, physical winger who had multiple rushes ending in a lightning quick release. In the tracking work, he’s one of the most physical forwards tracked, with perfectly balanced dual threat offensive metrics. He can get a head of steam going and power his way up the ice with great puck carrying metrics. With huge offensive output on a team at the bottom of the MHL’s Gold Division, Avramov is a bet on plenty of great tools to work around in a variety of areas.

• #44 | Nathan Villeneuve | Sudbury Wolves | C | Jan Rnk (80)

  Villeneuve has grown on me over the season, regardless of the recent suspension. An intense, high-pace player on both sides of the puck and has improved his offensive output after a bit of a slow start, Villeneuve is constantly hounding puck carriers with great forechecking metrics and stick checking results. Distributing pucks to linemates has been a strong area as well. He gets plenty of torque behind his wrist shots especially as a catch and release shooter, and I’d like to see him use his physical side to get pucks to the net a bit more than he does.

• #45 | Yegor Graf | SKA-1946 St. Petersburg | C | Jan Rnk (37)

  Ivan Demidov’s centre down the stretch, Yegor Graf is a player who I believe is a longshot, but brings a bit of the same things said about Ollie Josephson. While he doesn’t quite create as much offense as Josephson, Graf is a great combination of speed and skill and is jumping into play on both sides of the puck, especially in transition. He’s not much of a physical threat, and using skill to get through traffic in the offensive zone to penetrate into scoring areas hasn’t really happened, which limits his potential. That said, he’s a great puck mover and pesky forechecker with a great work rate and may be worth a nice swing late in the draft.

• #46 | Clarke Caswell | Swift Current Broncos | F | Jan Rnk (36)

  Smarts are the name of the game with Caswell. Another analytical darling in my data work, Caswell brings value almost everywhere, especially on the offensive side of the puck. He carries great shot selection, able to navigate through a defensive layer both on the rush and on a cycle, and he has some of the highest rates of slot pass attempts this year. Sometimes there can be less than ideal planning behind these attempts, but overall Caswell is a significant part of Swift Current’s offensive output when he’s on the ice. Another player who seems ranked a bit later but may be worth a swing relatively quickly.

• #47 | Jiri Tichacek | Rytíři Kladno | D | Jan Rnk (52)

  What a massive breakout season from Tichacek. Kladno has been relegated back to the 2nd division in Czechia, and in Tichacek’s last year of NHL Draft eligibility, I wonder if that’s a level he wants to return to after such a massive season. For the first stretch of the year, Tichacek factored into 50% of Kladno’s goals scored. That since has cooled to a still-ridiculous 36%. While much of his production has come on the power play, it finally seems like Tichacek is starting to use his feet and hands in conjunction with his high end release to open seams in defenses and goaltenders. The puck is going in finally, and without him, Kladno’s season would’ve been significantly worse. He’s undersized, but the mobility, skill and shot quality have all been there, but I continue to fear (or hope?) that we’re looking at the next Brad Hunt.

• #48 | Ryder Ritchie | Prince Albert Raiders | F | Jan Rnk (56)

  This is another one where we’re dealing with a player who just has a great feel for the game. He doesn’t really jump into a highlight reel tremendously often, but he consistently is moving play in the right direction, reading opposing rushes well, timing stick checks well, and efficient offensively. He’s more of a pass target and puck carrier through the neutral zone and I do have questions about how much offense he’ll be able to produce in the NHL without high end skill or intensity, but he may be a player who just doesn’t need those things in order to be successful. He drives plenty of Prince Albert’s offense while on the ice, and plenty of analytics paint him positively in my work. I think there are more exciting players ranked higher, but Ritchie plays a refined, practical and effective style that should be productive at most higher levels with time.

• #49 | Marcus Kearsey | Charlottetown Islanders | D | Jan Rnk (29)

  Speaking of undersized skilled defensemen, Marcus Kearsey makes another appearance, albeit 20 slots lower. Kearsey’s close quarters defending and physical play in the defensive zone is a real work in progress at this point. Offsetting this is a highly skilled and maniupulative gunslinger-type defenseman. He’s a major conduit for Charlottetown’s offensive transitions through some well timed and well placed passes, and has shown some really impressive skill and offensive flair that keeps you interested. An underrated area for him is, similar to Tichacek, he uses his mobility and ability to read breakouts to block offensive zone exits stick-first. Over an over he finds ways to clog up the neutral zone without having to be physical in the first place. If you get past that layer, he can be a much less impactful player, but he is definitely one to watch

• #50 | Luke Osburn | Youngstown Phantoms | D | Jan Rnk (54)

  Luke Osburn has come a long ways. I was shown him while first playing at the 16u level last season, and this season with Youngstown he’s gone from down the lineup getting 8-12 minutes a night to playing with Andrew Strathman for upwards of 20 minutes. He only improved as the season progressed, from a softer physical defenseman with plenty of skill and deception but lacking stable execution to a steady, practical applicator of skill to connect on passes. The comfort level, especially offensively has improved as well, shaking off opponents at the blueline and using his edges to create valuable space. As one of the youngest players in the draft, Osburn is a long term bet that has had quite the trajectory over the last two seasons. He’s been handed tough minutes and held his own, and the thought of where his game could be in a few years is tantalizing.

• #51 | Kuzma Voronin | Youngstown Phantoms | RW | Jan Rnk (62)

  Sticking with Youngstown, I absolutely love watching Kuzma Voronin. Raw skill and pure fun factor, Voronin is a relentless player with a great analytical profile across the board. Even physically he’s one of the more active hitters in my database, fearlessly going into battles in the corners and finishing checks in transition. The skill level and wrist shot release are truly excellent and his game is surprisingly efficient. I honestly don’t really know why he hasn’t scored more than he has outside of somewhat limited ice time and inconsistent power play experience. Looking into the details, finding the balance between applying skill and avoiding risk seems to be something that needs to be worked on. Voronin invites pressure and holds onto the puck at times and while the skill is impressive, he is prone to turnovers and creating unwinnable passing situations, but the pros outweigh the cons in my experience. He isn’t always completing his slot passes either, so improving on pre-scanning and making better plays on puck retrievals especially could help take Voronin up a notch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a significant step in the near future and put himself on the map somehow if he goes undrafted.

• #52 | Matvei Gridin | Muskegon Lumberjacks | F | Jan Rnk (NR)

  Matvei Gridin is another one of those players who has extremely impressive moments when there’s potential offense to be created. He can cross through the neutral zone gaining speed, and with a quick burst, get through a layer of defense, protect the puck well and slip passes into lanes and make something happen. A dangerous playmaker blending timing, skill and patience in the offensive zone, Gridin could be a player that sneaks up NHL boards come June. He’s a decent defender in transition but is often a player leaning more into the neutral zone defensively. There’s work to be done with generating his own scoring chances, especially with his potential danger from mid-range with a quick wrist shot he can release in stride. There has been more volume putting pucks on net from the perimeter, but the playmaking is impressive regardless, especially on the rush.

• #53 | Julius Miettinen | Everett Silvertips | C/W | Jan Rnk (NR)

  A player I had unranked until I saw some others putting his name out there. In my viewings, he has been an impressive 200-foot puck moving centre with simple and effective reads, strength to power through pressure, with speed to chase loose and pucks. A player who just seems to get it and play the game reliably in all three zones, Miettinen has been a slow burn, but the more you watch, the more you appreciate through the lack of things going too wrong with him on the ice.

• #54 | Mitch Young | Sarnia Sting | D | Jan Rnk (NR)

  Literally threw this guy in here over this past weekend, so give me a break if we’re in June and he isn’t on my list, but seeing a few games of Mitch Young after sneaking a peek in the playoffs his year, I’m really curious about this guy, even as a re-entry. Young averaged over 20 minutes a night for the Sarnia Sting and has been a standout for a daring, skilled and confident offensive game. Stepping up from the blueline with quickness, a great wrist and slap shot release, and daring defenders to challenge him with his body fakes and skill level, Young has taken a big step from last season and for a player I’ve heard very little about, he’s one that really stuck out while poking around during the OHL Playoffs.

• #55 | Veeti Väisänen | KooKoo | D | Jan Rnk (39)

  Veeti Väisänen is a curious one. While a bit undersized, he is a mobile and fluid skater with quick feet and quicker cuts to create pockets of space and passing opportunities. He uses his mobility to anticipate breakouts well and stick to leading passing options into the neutral zone. He’s a refined and capable foot+stick defender, but as with many smaller defensemen, his physical play isn’t a bright point as of yet, and it at times feels like a lack of strength takes power off of those passes in transition that come off of his quick cuts. Väisänen is a player that I believe slips and bit and may be a bit of a longshot for big NHL minutes, but the skating and smarts are there to build around for a few years and see what happens.

• #56 | Aron Kiviharju | HIFK | D | Jan Rnk (58)

  I went back and watched a pair of Kiviharju’s games from the beginning of the year before he got injured after I had bumped him down from here quite a bit, and I think I definitely overcorrected. There is still a really unique quickness to his body fakes and skill level that deceives and drags forecheckers decently well. He’s just very unproven against men at both ends, and the combination of a lack of size and a lack of high-end lateral mobility is concerning. He’s a smart tactical pass-first player who has some pivotal areas of improvement. I’m happy to change my mind after he returns from injury and perhaps plays some games before the draft.

• #57 | Kamil Bednarik | U.S. National U18 Team | C | Jan Rnk (40)

  The US U18 NTDP team this year is characterized by a deep, talented roster that scores by committee, and of the names flying a bit under the radar, Bednarik is the one I’ve enjoyed the most. I think he’ll only get better as he gets stronger over the years. A physical centre with a strong mind for the game, Bednarik makes smart, effective plays everywhere on the ice and drives offensive play through playmaking and scoring chances. He goes to the net chases down rebounds, reads breakouts and causes turnovers. He’s one of those guys who goes out and just plays good solid hockey. Most recently, he was on a line with Cole Eiserman and all game long, who was the guy starting breakouts that Eiserman ended with a shot from just inside the blueline? Bednarik. Who was going to the net and following up on those shots for dangerous chances? Bednarik. There’s lots to like and I believe he’ll at least be a very strong NCAA player over time, but he’s going to require patience and experimentation to find an NHL role.

• #57 | Adam Kleber | Lincoln Stars | D | Jan Rnk (53)

  Kleber is going to be a very interesting player to keep track of for the next few years. A tall, solidly built defender with a strong ability to cover ice with both length and a powerful stride. There’s a side of skill here and there with Kleber that jumps out when it happens, cutting inside scoring areas, making plays and creating scoring chances. This is a player who will likely need multiple years in college at Minnesota-Duluth but will be all the better for it. If he maintains the powerful, fluid stride he has and refines his skill level to be more of a dependable pass-first quarterback, there’s plenty of potential.

• #59 | Sebastian Soini | Ilves/KOOVEE | D | Jan Rnk (NR)

  A player that was unranked in January, after a few more visits, I couldn’t find too many defenders that I had ranked that I would take ahead of what I’ve seen in Soini. I focus on the highest level a player plays, and Soini has been a stable and intelligent passer with some understated finishing ability. His wrist shot is quick and he shows a willingness to pinch up and put himself in better scoring position. He’s one I haven’t seen and tracked in a bit of time like Bednarik so likely expect a bit more movement before June, but Soini’s ability to see the ice, time his passes and make some offensive plays here and there have been impressive.

• #60 | Cole Hutson | U.S. National U18 Team | D | Jan Rnk (59)

  Always mentioned as the brother of Lane, Cole Hutson has evolved and grown immensely this season into dare I say a bit more of a projectable style of defender who has begun to keep things a bit more simple, relying on strong turns on his edges and deception in transition at high pace to carve through the neutral zone with the puck. Lane is a much more daring offensive zone player, shimmying and shaking his way through the offensive zone and creating offense around the opposing net often. Cole is more of a perimeter creator that to me has specialized more in transition. Unfortunately the commonalities are in the areas of improvement to me. Where Lane was a passive, calculated but questionable defender, Cole carries similar concerns, losing battles along the boards and on defensive zone rushes, relinquishing scoring chances. That said, Hutson has improved every month when I’ve been able to check in on him, trusting his own feet and skill a bit more with the puck and playing a better possession oriented game.

• #61 | Ben Danford | Oshawa Generals | D | Jan Rnk (76)

  Ben Danford has been one of those defenders who just goes out and gets the job done. If he needs to be physical, he can be physical. If he needs to monitor a gap and time a stick check, he’ll do it. If he sees a soft offensive zone exit, he’ll challenge the breakout option quickly and be a frustrating log of a player to get past. In pockets there is also some impressive forwards skating speed and slot passing that adds a bit of a different flavor to his game. I don’t think there’s a huge NHL difference maker in Danford, but he is effective with flashes of more. Adding a bit more of a creative use of his feet with the puck to generate reliable pass lanes and options could be an interesting tweak to make. There is plenty of capability across the board with Danford.

• #62 | Charlie Elick | Brandon Wheat Kings | D | Jan Rnk (48)

  Sometimes I have to appreciate a player for what they are and what they do, even if they aren’t quite what I’m looking for when looking for a specific brand of hockey. Elick is a fast forwards skater with a heavy shot from the point, and is one of the more naturally physical mindsets of anyone in the draft. He’ll probably get to the point where an NHL team will play him because of how physical he wants his impact to be, but in my books, real dependability with the puck and defensive results leading to actual turnovers or breakouts matter. I may just not be seeing the right games but I haven’t quite seen that out of Elick on a consistent basis. Faster players squeeze through him,

• #63 | Yegor Surin | Loko Yaroslavl | C/RW | Jan Rnk (NR)

  Surin has been on my radar since last season as a potential standout from Russia for this season. What I’ve seen of Surin is more of much of this draft. Some great tools, especially skill-wise, a ton of confidence, and fights through pressure. That said, Surin has struggled in my viewings to move the puck accurately and reliably outside of off his own stick, and his confidence can get the best of him as well, working himself into unwinnable situations and soft turnovers. Surin still carries a great set of hands and has a strong catch-and-release as an finisher in the offensive zone. I could see a team taking a big, hard swing on him and betting on the raw skill and offensive oomph, but for me there are limitations on Surin’ style of play that put him behind quite a few others.

• #64 | Jacob Battaglia | Kingston Frontenacs | RW | Jan Rnk (79)

  I could see a world where Jacob Battaglia is an energetic bottom six NHL player with the intensity, skating ability and flashes of skill you get with Battaglia. It’s tough to project a massive amount of offense with Battaglia, but as complimentary power winger with skill on the side, he’s been an impressive one to watch for me. He struggles to generate truly threatening offense, but he’s shown great potential as an offensive transition quarterback and a knack for off-puck intensity and anticipation.

• #65 | Alexander Zetterberg | Örebro HK J20 | C | Jan Rnk (71)

  I didn’t have Zetterberg ranked for a while, but he’s continued to beat expectations and impress. His ability to time passes perfectly to slip pucks through traffic, or drag a forechecker out of the dot line to open up the centre of the ice, or just find ways to maintain possession with a reliable play, Zetterberg has all the ingredients to be an impressive possession winger. The trouble is that he lacks size and a real explosive level of skill and quickness to evade pressure in close quarters. He can catch breakouts cleanly in stride and find routes to evade pressure if he can see it coming, but when the game tightens up, Zetterberg can be erased somewhat. I’ll be keen to see him at the U18s, as he’s had some great performances with the national team this season, and to see how a profile like his stacks up against more physical opponents.

• #66 | Matvei Shuravin | Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | D | Jan Rnk (38)

  Matvei Shuravin is a weird, weird player. The first few games I saw, he was laid back in a good way, daring defenders to cross him and causing turnovers through stick checks well. The next few games, he looked extremely outmatched by the pace of the KHL, and going back to the MHL/VHL levels, Shuravin seems to have evolved in my mind to be well, not quite the good-boring player I saw early in the year. His defending is too passive much of the time and he struggles in close quarters. I’ve seen moments with strong forward skating strides propelling him into the offensive zone with possession of the puck, but it’s hard to put Shuravin over a significant number of defenders ahead of him on my list.

Tier 5 - Size, Skill, and Ludvig Johnson

• Switching to bullet points for the rest of the list, these are some really interesting players with combinations of size and skill that could be developed into something more, and a few raw tools options that are a different kind of project.

• Ilya Protas has gotten better as the year has gone on, always showing skill and determination under pressure. He attacks the net, brings a great combination of strength and skill.

• Harrison Brunicke has some great feet under him, but I think there’s a lot of roughness around the edges with his vision in transition, pass selection, and ability to maintain offensive zone possession outside of fakes and point shots. Plenty to be interested in and let develop in the WHL for two more years though.

• Ludvig Johnson has been in my back pocket all year after catching him with Leon Muggli early in the season. Johnson is a highly skilled defender with remarkable confidence and one on one talent. There are a ton of “almost really impressive” moments with Johnson, losing possession at the last moment, chipping a puck just a bit too short for him to retrieve it, an extra skill move before a shot, there are a lot of things that have limited Johnson’s potential but it isn’t for lack of trying.

• Dean Letourneau is the ultimate question mark in the whole class to me. Yes, he dominated the prep high school league with a bagillion goals and kajillion assists, but I’ve come away looking for a bit more out of Letourneau in order to put him way higher like others have him. He’s extremely tall and resilient under pressure with SAC, which is to be expected because well, look at him. His ability to catch and release pucks is strong, however, and he can work his way to scoring areas as a tipping and rebound threat. Could he be an NHLer? Sure. I see him in that Michael Rasmussen/Nick Bjugstad type of giant forward who can shoot in stride and make smart, calculated passes to keep play moving. That’s where Letourneau was strongest with Sioux Falls this year, but time will tell what goes down here.

The Watchlist - Projects and the “Likely Undrafted But Fun Anyways” Group

• I don’t think I’ve seen a player like Jesse Pulkkinen in a very long time. The guy is a real adventure. Some moments, he’s a talented cerebral passer with some strength behind the plays he puts together, and others he’s making absolutely mystifying decisions carrying pucks, not shoulder-checking on retrievals, and turning pucks over often. His production to me is explained by his ability to pull a puck away from pressure and jam his giant body between the puck and the defender. At the junior level, he was unstoppable, and in Liiga, it all comes and goes. If someone takes him in the first round, it’s a reach to me, but dang nabbit I respect it.

• Bergström is a player I’ve been very surprised hasn’t taken the offensive step expected in HockeyAllsvenskan. He’s a gifted skater with both straight line speed and mobility to manage gaps and monitor opponents. There are bursts of speed, deception and skill and he was one of the most productive even strength defenders at the U20 level in Sweden.

• I adore Jacob Therrien. Such an annoying, competitive, and skilled player, Therrien is all potential for me. Some of the most impressive rushes I’ve seen this year have involved quick give and goes and fancy dangles with a lightning quick release in the offensive zone. The possession numbers aren’t great, but Therrien drives great transition results and has plenty of capability of being a shooting threat from range.

• More intelligent players hit this list in Aatos Koivu, John Whipple and Viggo Gustafsson who all carry signs of skill, and strong vision of the ice with defensive responsibility. Gustafsson especially has impressed me internationally and I hope that trend continues at the U18s.

• William Nicholl barely plays for London, but he’s stuck out to me here and there watching other players and in isolation looked strong. High skill, uses it intelligently, and I believe with more experience and more of a role, he would grow into it and increase his production. An interesting possession player that is a bit rough around the edges, but has caught my attention.

• Parker Alcos is one I’ve poked around on here and there this year and just see a strong fundamental to work on. Good skill, good shot, good mobility, good frame, everything with Alcos is fine and I’m going to dig in more before the end of the year. A player on the NHL CSS list who I hadn’t seen yet, and I believe that with time, there could be something with Parker Alcos.

• Yes yes, I see you googling who Anton Bitev and assume I’ve lost my mind, but here me out. He’s just a really curious and weird case this year but I’ve liked what I’ve seen. He’s a re-entry who was playing in Togliatti below the MHL last season. After a strong start to the year with Togliatti’s MHL team, Bitev was swapped to Spartak' Moscow’s system and was immediately jammed into the bottom levels of the lineup and not playing every game. That said, the pace in his game is fantastic, hopping, skipping and jumping in and out of rushing lanes and chasing down puck possessors with intensity. His lack of production partially comes from playing somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5 minutes a night but seeing him slow things down on the puck and have a somewhat limited offensive approach relying on pure speed off the rush, but I just really enjoy watching players like him. Another year in the MHL likely does Bitev well with Spartak promoting quite a few players, lending him more ice time.

• Kenta Isogai is still here. I don’t expect him to be drafted but someone like Dallas or whoever bringing him to a camp and handing him a deal they likely don’t regret is possible. He’s added a more incisive mid-range playmaker’s game, following up on pressure in scoring areas, but still the high intensity 200-foot effort player he’s always been.

• Eemil Laurel is another 2004-born Finnish re-entries who stood out to me watching Sebastian Soini and Ondrej Kos live earlier in the year. Laurel is a ridiculously hard working player on the puck, both pushing and rushing through pressure as much as he likes, even in Mestis. Laurel had ridiculous production on an awful Ilves junior team and showed well in the limited Mestis minutes I watched.

• Joel Abrahamsson is a player who like teammate Viggo Gustafsson was first on my radar watching Swiss zippy boy Jamiro Reber earlier in the year. Where Reber is all speed, skill, and transition pace without much else, Abrahamsson is a different kind of project. Tall, lanky, but a gifted combination of skill and shot release, Abrahamsson has worked his way up the HV71 food chain over the season and been a standout at the U18 level with some real signs of potential.

• Speaking of tall, raw forwards with skill who play U18 hockey in Sweden, Cedrik Johansson is still here. He’s still tall, still lanky, still unrefined, but when he gets going and attacks the net, he’s a hard nut to crack. Likely not drafted, Johansson is a strong skater, covering ice with his reach and powerful stride. The shot release is very impressive, however and a major driver of his offense.

• I watched chunks of the Minnesota high school hockey tournament and checked out some USHL tape of the standouts who participated at that level this year. There weren’t a ton who jumped off the screen at me when looking at USHL footage but Gavin Uhlenkamp certainly has been the one I’ve latched onto. A major reason for Chanhassen’s first finals appearance after a shock upset of Minnetonka, Uhlenkamp is raw speed and power, forcing his way around the ice, fighting through players and getting some great wrist shots off from very strong scoring areas. Another one I need to see more of before June, but he’s been a standout from that side of the world.

• The Des Moines boys Theo Kiss and Ilya Protas are impressive and it has felt like they’ve improved over the year. Kiss was admittedly not great at the WJAC this season on a poor Slovak roster, but I’ve gone back many times to check him out and he continuously shows a ton of capability as a forechecking forward, but even more potential as a dual threat offensive piece. Similar to Voronin, his timing and overconfidence at times can lead to lower percentage chances, but he’s got a great shot he never fires from poor distances, and he tries to slip passes through traffic often.

Office Hours #2

Welcome back to Office Hours! This is a series that will review some of the key stories and performances of players tracked in recent weeks, some quick thoughts and insights and where they moved on my board if at all. This week, we take a look at a few North Americans who have made some significant moves around my board since the last ranking I published in January. Stay tuned for an updated 2024 NHL Draft Ranking coming in the next couple weeks!

---

John Mustard - Waterloo Black Hawks - Currently Ranked 29th

Mustard is a perplexing one. In my view, he’s raw in the truest sense. He’s a wonderful north-south skater with great skill and evasion ability in transition. There’s an excellent release on his wrist shot, and lots of raw potential. For a player who was playing AAA hockey last season in New Jersey, as well as a player nearly ineligible for the 2024 NHL Draft, being 2nd in team scoring is impressive to say the least. The troublesome bit is that Mustard seems to be a very self-driven play driver who is still quite rough around the edges with his timing, finding gaps in transition, and being able to drive himself into scoring areas to create his own scoring chances and chances for others. He’s a player who shows tremendous ability in spurts, but you still want to see more out of him.

Using his speed to play with some more intensity in his own end could go a ways to getting him more involved in moving pucks up the ice. He’s highly involved defensively, relying on stick checks and being somewhat successful, but an extra push here and there that he is definitely capable of could take him a ways from here. He’s a bit of a volume shooter and his selection could use some work as well. All that said, all the tools are there. Learning to slow things down at times and problem solve at a lower pace when necessary could be a big step to go along with that extra step of quickness and intensity that he seems to need. While Mustard clings to a 1st round slot for me, that’s more based on his potential and youth, rather than what is directly in front of you every shift. The idea of John Mustard in a few years as a speedy 200-foot shot-first forward is tantalizing however, and could be an impressive add in the draft later than he probably should go.

An example of Mustard’s strength on his edges, evasiveness and quickness. While he loses control in this clip, you can see signs of his potential as a possession forward with diverse offensive tools.

---

Ben Danford - Oshawa Generals - Currently Ranked 53st

Over the years I’ve grown to appreciate players who just go over the boards and play a role that will never be out of demand. This goes doubly for defenders, and Ben Danford could be a great example of this kind of player. While he has issues connecting on passes in transition and rarely carries pucks himself, Danford is an intelligent positional defender, willing to play the body when necessary while also using his mobility and range to cut off loose pucks and make quick plays to extend possession. Stick checking in defensive transition has been a bit of a work in progress but when he plays the body, it’s tough to get through him. He scans the ice well, and in isolated moments, he has some impressive signs of something more locked away there. While I don’t think his NHL upside is massive, I could easily see him eating minutes and defending dangerous areas well as he’s done in Oshawa in the viewings I’ve seen this year.

---

Clarke Caswell - Swift Current Broncos - Currently Ranked 61st

This draft is often characterized by incomplete talent profiles but strong isolated areas of play. If I had to pick a player who might be one of the smartest players in the class who just seems to really “get it”, it’s Caswell. It’s always the little details with him that may go unnoticed, but the keen-eyed will notice his ability to utilize little pockets of space, create space, and forecheck with a strong sense of timing. He finds routes up the ice and is among the more efficient offensive transition players I’ve tracked this year. He makes himself a target on breakouts well, he finds ways to hit targets of his own with passes, even on offensive zone entries, and has a work rate that hopefully can overcome the lack of high end speed and skating ability that he seems to have. He’s a huge driver of slot passes but completing them is a bit of a work in progress and working on building his timing and vision to create plays rather than blindly heaving pucks into scoring areas could expand his offensive output.

I’ve been impressed with Caswell and the game I covered this past week was absolutely his best I’ve seen this year. After almost an hour of 5v5 data, he’s one of the better drivers of potential offense with extremely high end rates of dangerous shot attempts and these slot pass attempts in my entire dataset. Will it project to the NHL? I’m still not sure, but if it does, he could be a very very good pickup in the middle rounds of this draft.

---

Jett Luchanko - Guelph Storm - Currently Ranked 28th

The first few sentences of the Clarke Caswell update could be applied in an even more impactful way. Luchanko may lack the raw offensive output Caswell has had, but the quality of those chances are all ramped up quite significantly. His shot selection is nearly perfect, driving huge amounts of dangerous attempts and very little in the way of perimeter shooting. He generates more dangerous shot assists, but is also a highly impressive offensive transition quarterback. He reads play extremely well, forechecking with a great sense of timing and with strong pace leading to great offensive zone turnover generation rates.

Luchanko has grown on my over this season. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft as well, and has only gotten better the more I’ve seen him. There are echoes of an Easton Cowan-type profile here, leading with intelligence and selfless play, but rather than the dog-on-a-bone work rate Cowan had, Luchanko brings his intelligence to generating scoring chances for himself and playing a style of play that would be projectable to the NHL. It’s no-nonsense, it doesn’t always jump out at you, but it works.

---

Office Hours #1

Welcome to Office Hours! This is a series that will review some of the key stories and performances of players tracked in the last week, some quick thoughts and insights and where they moved on my board if at all. Might even include some drafted prospect blurbs in the future, who knows! At this point in the season, I’ve tracked 391 performances across 160 players in my database. From here onwards, new players added will be rare to make more robust data down the stretch for the ~90 players that likely will end up on my final rankings in June. In these pieces we’ll be quickly examining some curious cases that I’ve seen recently, and subscribers will get early access to these, so if you aren’t already, be sure to click the button at the bottom of the post to sign up today and get these as soon as I put them out!

---

Cole Hutson - Team USA U18 NTDP - Currently Ranked 57th

The Hutson brothers are a fascinating pair of prospects these days to analyze as defenders. They are exciting, creative, confident and unlike almost anyone else at the position. Their Achilles heels have always been when pucks are coming their way defensively and in the defensive zone. Physical play is almost a non-starter for both, and their mobility to close gaps and finish with stick checks and contact are not likely to intimidate NHL opponents. With youngling Cole eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft, my early take on Cole Hutson was significantly cooler than his brother around the same age. The intent to push offense, shake off forecheckers and create in the offensive zone was there, but the deceptiveness, quickness and skill level just weren’t on the same level, with similar defensive issues at play as Lane has to overcome. He was losing physical battles, missing stick checks and relinquishing defensive chances, as well as taking on far too much risk in transition without enough speed or skill to find his way through the neutral zone at a projectable level. For a time, Hutson wasn’t even on my board for June, but as time has gone by, my view has changed, and the most recent game tracked solidified him in my late 2nd round for the time being.

Hutson seems to have refined his game significantly and morphed into a much more NHL-like pass-first puck transporter. Rather than focusing so much on skill and deception, Hutson uses his edges through turns to create space rather than skill alone, and shows a bit more explosiveness to navigate around the ice. The impressive bit is his sense of timing on his passes, finding seams to linemates and hitting them at the right time to make the pass as easy as possible. Even passing through traffic, Hutson seems to have a strong grasp of when and how to get pucks through feet and sticks. While Lane may have a highly impressive level of skill and higher end vision of more impressive plays, Cole just goes out and executes good plays with the puck more and more every time I see him. The defending is still worrisome, both in transition and in his own end, and his upside doesn’t overwhelm his shortcomings in the same way as Lane’s might. Cole Hutson is a curious case that I imagine gets drafted later than he should be drafted, but his NHL likelihood remains a question mark. He’s come a ways though, and with a few years in college, who knows what’s possible?

---

Ivan Demidov - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - Currently Ranked 2nd

It isn’t controversial to say that Ivan Demidov started the season in worrying form. His reliance on skill and self-directed puck possession without high end pace or separation speed exposed him as a significantly limited player in the KHL for a time. The first tracked game of mine in the MHL was an excellent showcase of those issues, just against worse competition in his age group. Since that time, he has absolutely exploded offensively. Since the new year, Demidov has rifled off 37 points in 14 games played, and the tracked data in my database backs up just how absurd he is as an offensive force. Game #4 was against softer competition and his results were predictably outrageous, so I ensure that Game 5 was against a team higher in SKA-1946’s division, and while Demidov came away with a less ridiculous sample, it was still excellent.

The question that rises is what exactly has changed in his game that has unlocked such a level of output. Even in this lower level of competition, I have never seen such results in the MHL, and I absolutely buy what I’m seeing. Demidov made a name for himself last year with his possession-heavy perimeter game that relied on volume over everything. Get the puck, shoot the puck or carry it for 10 seconds and make 4 slot pass attempts while doing so. There wasn’t really any in-between. In transition, Demidov relied on high end skill skill at low speed, trying to put pucks between legs and struggling to generate space from players without fancy looking dekes and evasion. In the time since, Demidov has evolved into a significantly more north-south oriented player, generating significantly better results through his forward stride and pure speed. In the offensive zone, his vision of passing lanes, sense of timing, and willingness to distribute the puck to linemates more often has made him a far more devastating and surgical offensive weapon. Gone are the days of handling pucks as long as he wants, he’s handling pucks as long as he needs to. He’s finding space in scoring areas off the puck, he’s juggling all varieties of transition types almost perfectly (except bodychecking defensively), and is highly successful in all aspects.

My experience with Demidov has gotten to the point where I am increasingly questioning how much I have Macklin Celebrini locked in the first overall slot. Celebrini brings a well-rounded game with capable goal scoring, playmaking, and perception of the game in all zones. Being a natural centre and so effective at the NCAA level at his age, Celebrini has a tough pedestal to improve upon, but if anyone is pushing him, it’s Demidov. The skill, vision, creativity, and his improving ability to manage the puck and quarterback a line on the ice is extremely impressive. He has that “superstar” quality to him that names like Artemi Panarin or Clayton Keller bring, and my concerns about him seem to be alleviated quite significantly. My only concern is that through all this success, he remains in a level he’s far too talented to be in. He’s tearing apart contending rosters consistently and if he’s brought along one step at a time over the next season or two or three, he may come out as the most exciting and productive player in this draft class.

Demidov takes this week’s clip of the week with an explosive rush up the ice leading to his first of three points on the night.

---

Elias Straume Vatne - Färjestad BK J20 - Currently Ranked 79th

Elias Straume Vatne was a player I was remarkably excited to watch going into this season. He was arguably the best player on the Norwegian U18 team last season, with an excellent J18 year with Färjestad. This year, his translation to J20 competition has been… troublesome. If you want a great view into a highly talented player who struggles to produce to their historical standard, Straume Vatne earlier this season would be a great case study. Skating directly into pressure, soft defensive pressure, trying to outskill everyone on every possession, indirect and lackadaisical passing in the offensive zone, good shot quality but never getting in a position to actually shoot the puck, the list goes on. Eventually Straume Vatne found himself at the tail end of my Watchlist as a potential swing with one of your teams last picks in the draft. His omission from the World Junior team was simultaneously disappointing but not surprising, as much as I wished he were there.

Since the J20 Nationell split in half, Färjestad is having a rough go with a 1-10-3 record against the other top J20 teams in Sweden, and Straume Vatne continues to lack the production you’d expect of such a raw talent, but based on my experience with him this week, he has worked his way back onto my numerical list. Where Straume Vatne was more passive defensively and waiting for breakouts in the neutral zone, he was getting more involved in puck play getting out of his own end and showing a bit more confidence to carry pucks and carry more forward momentum going into and through the neutral zone. He was passing pucks quicker, and through all his ups and downs, is taking or creating 55% of his team’s shot attempts while on the ice. That includes the fact that he has shot the puck twice in three performances, both of which from scoring areas. This touches on another area of note. Of the Färjestad players I’ve tracked this year, that team is consistently among the lowest shot volume teams at both ends. Generally, the players who are responsible for generating what limited offense you get from teams like this are the ones that may fly under the radar and could blossom in different situations.

Straume Vatne likely won’t be drafted particularly high, nor should he be, but I’m expecting another strong performance at the U18s this year as a premier player for the Norwegians that may change his fortunes somewhat. It is certain that less talented players will be drafted this season, but a player this rough around the edges requires patience and study. If it’s me, I get a bit of a sense of a potential scrappy, skilled and annoying energy player one day. He’s more physical than you would expect, but you just don’t see it as often as you’d like. The traits he has, but doesn’t show often enough seem to be numerous in my viewings, but sometimes you have to close your eyes and swing the bat on a guy who shows well at their best and you see more as the years go by.

---

The (Data) Story So Far

We’re well past the halfway point of the hockey season, and it feels high time to share some findings through the tracked data I’ve generated through this point. As of time of writing (Feb 10, 2024), I’ve watched 324 performances of players spanning around the globe from the likely top end of the draft right down to “what was I thinking jotting this name down at 2am on a Tuesday”. So far this season has been… a mixed bag, but an exciting one nonetheless and I thought it was time to share some deeper findings.

The data I track is strictly focused on events where the player is directly involved, and entirely collected at 5v5. The idea is essentially to provide a stable backbone of what is actually happening on the ice, and how much the targeted player factored into all the various goings on in a hockey game. Blueline transitions are vital, but how those transitions are generated is vital to understand, and how a player succeeds or doesn’t succeed is even more pivotal to explore. Shots are great, but where are they coming from? How often is their team shooting? Are they capable of distributing the puck to others who then shoot it themselves? Are players getting involved in their own end breaking cycles, causing turnovers and getting play moving? Raw production data simply does not capture this, and relying solely on such data is simply scratching the surface of what’s out there in the NHL Draft landscape.

This data is not what I base my final judgements on, I should note. If I did, Vsevolod Gaidamak and Benjamin Baumgartner would’ve been in my first rounds as some of the best high danger shot generators in the universe. What it does do, is give me a memory bank to go back to and see exactly who is doing what and how, with the video archive providing vital context to get to the qualitative bit. I honestly don’t think I would feel comfortable doing this work without doing things how I do it. I can jump from player to player easily, I’m agile, and over the years I’ve honed in on what I believe are the core aspects and meaningful events that occur in a hockey game. In the simplest terms, you are supposed to take the puck from your opponents, take it towards their net, and put the thing in the net. That’s really all there is to it. Defending, Transition, Offense. Defending, Transition, Offense. Defending, Transition, Offense. Over and over and hopefully you win.

My raw tracked data is locked behind my consulting business Fractal Hockey, so unfortunately I cannot share specific metrics and information publicly, but I felt that it would be prudent to give a peek behind the curtain and point out some intriguing data and video focused findings thus far, as many key players are well past the point where I feel comfortable about my read on them.

---

Luke Misa: Analytics King

Over the 2023 offseason I built a tool to take raw data inputs from my tracking and filter them down into text fragments to help tell the story the data tells. In almost every case I’ve dug into, they “feel” right, relative to my thoughts on the player in general, and while there are some standouts, the one that appears to rise above the rest, especially relative to their public valuation, is Mississauga Steelheads winger Luke Misa.

Luke Misa’s (Mississauga #33) directional changes and playmaking skill on display. Cross-ice vision and forechecking are key strengths of his offensive game.

Almost across the board, Misa is a standout. Massive involvement and efficiency in offensive transitions (OTS%), with elite puck carrying ability, with 34.6% of his transitions coming through carries, maintaining control on 92.9% of attempts. Once the puck is in the offensive zone, Misa is among the leaders in my work in attempting passes to the slot (DPass/60) and creating dangerous chances for teammates (DShA). Misa is also a significant standout when it comes to generating his own shots from scoring areas (iDSAT/60). Combining all of this puts him in rare company in my work over the years including Zach Benson, Logan Cooley, Seth Jarvis, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith, and Conor Bedard among others. As a share of his team’s shot attempts, nearly 20% of them are taken by Misa from scoring areas which puts him again in rare company, but combining >10 dangerous shot assists is something I haven’t seen since starting to track shot assists more granularly. The story continues to be impressive off the puck, as Misa is again right near the top of the class in the offensive zone, generating turnovers and gains of possession as often as names likely to be selected in the top 15 picks such as Zayne Parekh, Konsta Helenius, Berkly Catton, and the big boy Macklin Celebrini.

At the end of the day, this is a player who at worst is highly capable of transporting pucks up the ice with speed and dual-threat offensive creation that is both dangerous off his own stick as well as involving teammates to create dangerous chances of their own. In my view, a second to third round valuation is bordering on absurd, at least on paper. So why the relatively poor outlook on Misa’s future? Setting aside the common “smol” argument people throw around, there are legitimate gaps in Misa’s game that could threaten how effective he could be in the NHL.

---

Where Is Zayne Parekh’s Production Coming From?

Zayne Parekh is on track to be the first OHL defenseman to hit 100 points in their NHL Draft season since that Bruce Cassidy did it back when Billie Jean was first hitting the airwaves. My own experience watching Parekh, one of my most heavily watched players thus far, has been extremely perplexing, however. The data ingested isn’t necessarily poor but it doesn’t really seem to line up with what you would expect from a potentially record-setting offensive defenseman. In some areas, there are definitely areas of concern that could negate what offensive advantages he may create at 5v5.

Possessionwise, Parekh is losing the shot attempt battle. He touches the puck a ton and has an enormous load of pass attempts to go with it (PassAtt/60), with just over two attempts per minute of 5v5 ice time. Of all those attempts, over a third result in a loss of possession. Generating offense is a curious area, generating 8.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time, but the real interesting it is the raw volume of shot attempts Parekh puts on net himself. Parekh currently registers over 21 shot attempts per 60 minutes off his own stick, putting him well ahead of the next challenger Carter Yakemchuk down at 17. 40.8% of Saginaw’s shot attempts taken with Parekh out there are his, and removing dangerous attempts leaves a whopping 31.8% of their total attempts being perimeter shots from Parekh. These numbers would put him well ahead of any NHL defenseman with regards to total shot attempts relative to team shot attempts. Dougie Hamilton has been the only defender this year to pass 20 individual shot attempts, and those still account for just 27% of New Jersey’s attempts with him on the ice. Parekh is in uncharted waters when projecting to the NHL in the shooting regard.

The major strengths and areas of improvement for Parekh (Saginaw #19) with his mobility to draw defenders away from pass options and generate off of perimeter shots. On the other hand, rush defense and board battles are… A work in progress.

The real trouble comes in the rest of the picture. Parekh is clearly one of the most highly involved transition defenders in my data set, largely driven by his long stride, covering stretches of ice easily to snag loose pucks in low to moderate pressure situations. In those situations, he’s generally quite effective in at least turning play around and moving things offensively again, driving his massive rate of pass attempts and overwhelming preference for passing pucks across bluelines (PassPref). Otherwise, Parekh is a player who, at least to me, brings a lot of concern. Many high point defenders have been drafted in recent years, only to underachieve potential, and in my view, the commonality is the lack of high end skating ability combined with an aversion to putting in that extra “oomph” to use a scientific term in close quarters and shutting down opposing rushes and cycles. This to me has been Parekh’s most serious weakness this year that his offensive output may mask for now. The video below displays some of the more… questionable defensive plays I’ve seen out of Parekh this year that brings me significant pause when it comes to valuing him as much as his raw numbers would indicate.

All of this having been said, Parekh is a confident player constantly looking to generate offense using misdirection, pressure and his shot to get pucks into space and on net. All of those tools especially come out on the power play, and Parekh does bring strong, volume oriented offensive output clearly shown in the data. The sustainability of all of this is called into question when incorporating his play in his own end and his reliance on massive shot attempt volumes that likely factors into why he isn’t locked in at the top end of NHL Draft boards.

---

What Exactly Are You Getting in Macklin Celebrini?

There has already been endless talk about Macklin Celebrini and we haven’t even seen a single NHL team eliminated from playoff contention. I’m of the belief that drafting first overall is usually no guarantee of a franchise turnaround considering the sheer difficulty of playing in the NHL in the 2020s, but it certainly helps to have your pick of the litter. We’ve seen some surprises in recent years, we’ve seen first overall picks struggle to translate, and we’ve seen franchises reborn through the name selected first. The 2024 NHL Draft to me is characterized by a somewhat limited selection of players that you can clearly identify as potential major difference makers, but flying pretty high above a sea of uncertainty filled with potential role players and interesting development potential. At the top end, Macklin Celebrini reigns supreme as my #1 player in the NHL Draft, but I do believe he has some competition, and this can be indicated through both the video and the data I’ve tracked to this point.

Celebrini (Boston University #71) displaying his scoring area instincts, playmaking and forechecking/defensive skill.

Celebrini will certainly be a player that should have little issue translating to the NHL as a well rounded offensive centre. While to some he may not carry the ideal frame for an elite NHL centre, the way he’s wired to play the game certainly goes quite a ways to overcome those concerns. In my tracking he may not be the most physical player throwing himself into bodies and in front of pucks in his own end, but he is regularly anticipating the flow of play without the puck, causing turnovers in the offensive zone and breaking up cycles with well timed stick checks and pass interceptions in his own end. There isn’t a particular concern to me of Celebrini being one of those young players who only wants the puck on his stick and solely drive offense.

The skill level on display with Celebrini is also highly noteworthy in it’s practicality. Is he carving through opponents at 5mph at times like 2024 counterpart Ivan Demidov? No, not really. In fact, a teeny tiny criticism I’d make of Celebrini is trying to take on too much pressure on his own, skating cross-ice into double, triple and even quadruple coverage and can lose possession. As mentioned before however, Celebrini doesn’t give up on plays where he may lose possession. He’s right back on the horse, lifting sticks and getting into passing lanes to get the puck moving towards the opposing net again. In the data, this also seems to be a bit of an overinflated concern as he’s carrying pucks up the ice 24% of the time in my data and successful 90% of the time, more than any other transition type.

Where Celebrini does and likely will thrive down the road is in the offensive zone. His defensive transition data is strong, with good stick check involvement at 48% and successful on 63% of those transitions. There is a bit of a lack of physical intensity and strength, but it’s perfectly okay to see gaps in the games of elite players, especially when there are so many bright spots to point at. The text analysis fields above indicate that Celebrini is indeed a dual-threat offensive player, and the proverbial eye-test would agree. Whether defenders like it or not, Celebrini gets to scoring areas and shows a strong willingness to do so many, many times over. He’ll fire passes into the slot, slither around the boards behind the net, snag rebounds, wrap pucks around the net for scoring chances, fake wraparounds, and find ways to battle his way to the slot with and without the puck to gain higher danger scoring chances. What Celebrini certainly isn’t is a volume scorer. He picks his spots well, and takes shots from the perimeter 32% of the time which is impressive for an NCAA freshman to say the least. Ivan Demidov may get chances from closer more often, but the MHL is not the NCAA and Cayden Lindstrom may do the same in my data, but he’s also blessed by god with physical strength and confidence. Celebrini feels a little bit more refined in his decisionmaking and gives me no doubt that there is a willingness and ability to create offense in a manner fitting for the NHL.

So what is a team getting in Macklin Celebrini? I don’t see him on the echelon of a Hughes, MacKinnon or McDavid who will take whatever team he ends up with turn into a serious threat to the league, but I would certainly take a player like Brayden Point on my team any day. A major part of a contender one day, especially with some improvements to his strength under pressure, but the processing skill, shot selection and ability to generate dangerous offense in a variety of ways bodes well for his NHL future.

---

Ivan Demidov: Your Next Favourite Superstar… Maybe.

If you haven’t yet, go to YouTube and watch some Ivan Demidov highlights if you can find them. It doesn’t take long to see how unbelievably entertaining this player has been throughout the season in the Russian junior league. At time of writing, Demidov has put up 57 points in 28 games, but looking deeper things get increasingly outrageous. 27 have come in his last 10, 18 of them at even strength. He’s worked his way to a 50% involvement percentage in team offence, a 47% involvement in team offence at even strength, but the data I have tracked on him to this point has been absolutely bananas. I will say that in Demidov’s particular case, my first tracked game was a KHL performance, which we’ll get to later, but other than that I have three games of data of his. This number will obviously grow and if anything changes I’ll certainly factor that in, but for now, the sample is small, but so ridiculous and fun that we’ve got to chat about this guy. The image above also factors in the tracked KHL game so the metrics are slightly different due to the inclusion of that game in the database.

Taken as a whole, Demidov has found himself participating in 50% of SKA-1946’s offensive transitions, maintaining control of them 83% of the time constantly receiving pucks across the defensive blueine and springing into the offensive zone with the puck under his control. Nobody in the draft can match that. The first game tracked, Demidov controlled 22 of 26 offensive transitions. He is averaging a controlled entry into the offensive zone every Simpsons Intro’s length(ish) of 5v5 ice time. Ridiculous. He’s passing the puck over twice a minute, completing 77% of his passes, with a pass directed at the slot every 70 seconds, or the length from the start of the Simpsons intro to the point where they sit on the couch. That rate has also increased in each successive game, but that may just be the selection of games. He’s completing these passes every 2:30 of ice time. He’s taken 27% of his team’s shot attempts, 72% of those from scoring areas, and set up another 27% of everyone else’s. Across the board, Demidov has been an absolute nightmare offensively over these games, and if recent video is any indication, that hasn’t stopped.

A common refrain from players like this is “but what about the defense” and with Demidov, the numbers nowhere near as tremendous, but they’re at least adequate, if not strong. His 10% involvement in defensive transitions is slightly below average but he’s heavily involved with his stick checks and finds strong rates of success in those situations. Has he thrown a single check in transition? No. Did he only throw a hit in the most recent game with data? Yep. This is a look into some of the pitfalls but this also isn’t what you’re drafting Ivan Demidov for anyway.

Behold some of the dual-threat creativity and remarkable confidence Demidov (SKA #11) displays. Keep in mind the reliance on lower pace movement and moments of overconfidence that were major factors in his KHL struggles.

The catch to all of this is that Demidov has an area that needs improvement that looms over all of this. No, it isn’t just that the MHL’s quality of play is an adventure to itself, but something much more to do with how Demidov’s game will actually translate to higher levels. Through all the insane results, Demidov actually started his season somewhat slow. I was among those who thought he was ready for a KHL introduction after last season, and while Demidov cracked SKA’s lineup, the KHL is not the MHL. Demidov’s skating stride and puck handling often relies on changing his angles and maneuvering his body around the puck to find passing lanes and cross up defenders. The issue is what seems to be short leg extensions in his stride that hamper him avoiding in transition. Opponents can close on him quickly, and he is a player who wants the puck, and wants to hang onto it. In the MHL, he turns himself around turning that forechecker into mist with a skill move, or uses the speed he does have to beat the weaker competition. His tracked KHL game did involve him in transitions at a similar rate, but he was relying more on northbound passes under pressure that were turned over, and he wasn’t given a chance to really use his stickhandling and evasion. The higher pace of play left him behind on a few defensive transitions, and settling pucks was an issue. It simply felt as though the speed and physicality of the game snuffed his ability to play how he likes to play. His early MHL results were good, but his level of dominance wasn’t there compared to what I’ve seen, and his ability to control the puck and change angles has improved, as well as what seems to be more of a willingness to be in motion for pass receptions and finding open ice a little more has led to huge gains for Demidov over the season. In my view he’s gotten more surgical, calculated and mobile, which I am fascinated to see at higher levels. It is far past time for Demidov to get an extended look against men somehow until the end of the season. This level isn’t a challenge, but he’s a player who I believe needs to be challenged. If this guy hits, he’ll be a lot of people’s favourite players, but I could see a world where things don’t quite come far enough to reach the potential he’s shown over the last two years.

---

As I’ve said, data is just information. It helps tell a story of some kind of event that is transpiring, but it doesn’t fully explain everything or capture the full experience of the event itself. These players have stood out in some manner on paper, and the video has provided fascinating context to that information. It also felt prudent to simply put out there what exactly the consensus 1st overall selection actually does out there, and if there may be any competition out there that isn’t being considered as much as it should. Misa drives tremendous results, but does display some potential limitations at higher levels. Parekh scores a ton but beyond raw point production on a powerhouse OHL team, there are issues lying in the data. Celebrini is highly talented, projectable and diversified in his abilities, but to me a question remains if there is any threat to his label as #1 overall this year. If anyone is going to really challenge Celebrini, it may be Demidov simply for the raw superstar potential of this player. Sure there may be issues now, but with the right patience and guidance, where could he be in 5 years? If you had a pick of a Brayden Point-type player or a Artemi Panarin-type highlight reel machine? The data suggests there’s a discussion to be had, and the video seems to lead me to the same conclusion. The next few months could be fascinating, so hold on to your butts.

---